The Georgian Defense Industry - Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies, Analyses and Forecasts to 2017 by ICDResearch

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									                                           The Georgian Defense Industry-Market
                                             Opportunities and Entry Strategies
                                              Analyses and Forecasts to 2017




www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com                                  icdreports@progressivedigitalmedia.com

             John Carpenter House, 7 Carmelite Street, LondonEC4Y 0BS, United Kingdom, Tel: +44 (0)20 7936 6830
The Georgian Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017


 TABLE OF CONTENTS

 1.   Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 9
   1.1. What is this Report About? ........................................................................................................... 9
   1.2. Definitions ...................................................................................................................................... 9
   1.3. Summary Methodology.................................................................................................................11
   1.4. SDI Terrorism Index ......................................................................................................................12
   1.5. About Strategic Defence Intelligence (www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com) ......................12
 2.   Executive Summary ............................................................................................................ 13
 3.   Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities ........................................................ 14
   3.1. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast..............................................................................15
       3.1.1. Georgian annual defense expenditure to reach US$547.2 million by 2017 ............................................. 15
       3.1.2. NATO membership, threats posed by Russia and modernization plans drive defense expenditure ....... 18
       3.1.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP expected to decline ........................................................ 20
       3.1.4. Per-capita defense expenditure expected to reach US$127 by 2017 ...................................................... 22
   3.2. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation .......................................................................................24
       3.2.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period ...................................... 24
       3.2.2. Capital expenditure budget expected to grow during the forecast period ................................................ 27
       3.2.3. MoD to spend US$1.7 billion on revenue expenditure during the forecast period ................................... 29
   3.3. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast ............................................................................31
       3.3.1. Homeland security market expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.48% during the forecast period ............... 31
       3.3.2. Human trafficking, drug trafficking and internal disputes to drive homeland security expenditure .......... 34
       3.3.3. Georgia falls under ―some risk‖ of terrorism category .............................................................................. 35
       3.3.4. Georgia has terrorism index score of 0.3 ................................................................................................. 36
       3.3.5. Georgia faces moderate risk of terrorist attack......................................................................................... 37
   3.4. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets .....................................................................................39
       3.4.1. Despite a small budget, Georgian defense expenditure will grow faster than leading spenders ............. 39
       3.4.2. Georgia’s per capita expenditure is less than its neighbors Russia and Turkey ...................................... 41
       3.4.3. Georgia is a very small figure in the global defense market ..................................................................... 42
       3.4.4. Georgia allocates a higher share of its GDP to defense than NATO requires ......................................... 43
   3.5. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators ......................................................44
       3.5.1. Demand for armored vehicles expected to increase ................................................................................ 44
       3.5.2. Demand for fighter aircraft and missile defense systems expected to increase ...................................... 44
       3.5.3. Anti-tank and anti-aircraft capabilities expected to be in demand ............................................................ 44
       3.5.4. Defense and logistics systems to be enhanced to enable informed actions against attack .................... 44
       3.5.5. Specialized training will witness a surge in demand ................................................................................ 45
       3.5.6. Demand for air defense equipment to surge ............................................................................................ 45




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 www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com                                                     icdreports@progressivedigitalmedia.com
The Georgian Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017


 4.   Defense Procurement Market Dynamics ........................................................................... 46
   4.1. Import Market Dynamics ...............................................................................................................47
      4.1.1. Defense imports expected to recover by 2017 ......................................................................................... 47
      4.1.2. Ukraine is the major arms supplier to Georgia ......................................................................................... 48
      4.1.3. Armored vehicles, sensors and missiles account for the majority of Georgia’s arms imports ................. 49
   4.2. Export Market Dynamics ..............................................................................................................50
      4.2.1. Georgia does not export arms due to an undeveloped domestic arms industry ...................................... 50
 5.   Industry Dynamics .............................................................................................................. 51
   5.1. Five Forces Analysis.....................................................................................................................51
      5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: high ........................................................................................................... 52
      5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: low ................................................................................................................ 52
      5.1.3. Barriers to entry: high ............................................................................................................................... 52
      5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: low .............................................................................................................................. 52
      5.1.5. Threat of substitution: low ......................................................................................................................... 52
 6.   Market Entry Strategy ......................................................................................................... 53
   6.1. Market Regulation .........................................................................................................................53
      6.1.1. Georgia does not disclose any offset obligations imposed by the country ............................................... 53
      6.1.2. FDI in defense sector permitted only after review by the government ..................................................... 53
   6.2. Market Entry Route .......................................................................................................................54
      6.2.1. Foreign military sales (FMS) and direct commercial sales (DCS) preferred market entry routes ............ 54
      6.2.2. Establishment of subsidiaries provides an alternative entry route ........................................................... 54
   6.3. Key Challenges .............................................................................................................................55
      6.3.1. Proposed arms embargo against Georgia makes it difficult for defense companies ............................... 55
      6.3.2. Small defense budget does not attract investors and suppliers ............................................................... 55
 7.   Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights ................................................................ 56
   7.1. Competitive Landscape Overview ...............................................................................................56
   7.2. Key Public Sectors Companies ....................................................................................................56
      7.2.1. Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing: overview .................................................................................................... 56
      7.2.2. Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing – Major Products and Services .................................................................. 56
      7.2.3. Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing: recent contracts and strategic initiatives ................................................... 57
      7.2.4. Tbilisi Aircraft Manufacturing – Alliances .................................................................................................. 57
 8.   Business Environment and Country Risk ......................................................................... 58
   8.1. Demographics & Social Statistics................................................................................................58
      8.1.1. Population – Female ................................................................................................................................. 58
      8.1.2. Population - Male ...................................................................................................................................... 59
   8.2. Economic Performance ................................................................................................................60




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 www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com                                                           icdreports@progressivedigitalmedia.com
The Georgian Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

       8.2.1. Construction Output, Current Prices, Local Currency .............................................................................. 60
       8.2.2. Construction Output, Current Prices, US Dollars ..................................................................................... 61
       8.2.3. Current Account Balance as Percentage of GDP .................................................................................... 62
       8.2.4. Exports of goods and services, current prices ......................................................................................... 63
       8.2.5. Fiscal Balance as a percentage of GDP................................................................................................... 64
       8.2.6. Foreign Direct Investment......................................................................................................................... 65
       8.2.7. GDP at Purchasing Power Parity ............................................................................................................. 66
       8.2.8. GDP, Constant Prices (Local Currency) ................................................................................................... 67
       8.2.9. GDP, Constant Prices (US$ Billion) ......................................................................................................... 68
       8.2.10. GDP, Current Prices (Local Currency) ..................................................................................................... 69
       8.2.11. GDP, Current Prices (US$)....................................................................................................................... 70
       8.2.12. General Government Final Consumption Expenditure ............................................................................. 71
       8.2.13. Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Current Prices ........................................................................................ 72
       8.2.14. Imports of goods and services .................................................................................................................. 73
       8.2.15. Inflation, average consumer prices ........................................................................................................... 74
       8.2.16. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (Local Currency Bn) ..................................................................... 75
       8.2.17. Manufacturing Output, Current Prices (US$ Billions) ............................................................................... 76
       8.2.18. Wholesale Price Index .............................................................................................................................. 77
   8.3. Energy and Utilities .......................................................................................................................78
       8.3.1. Electricity Exports ..................................................................................................................................... 78
       8.3.2. Electricity Imports ..................................................................................................................................... 79
       8.3.3. Electricity Installed Capacity ..................................................................................................................... 80
       8.3.4. Fossil Fuels Proved natural gas reserves ................................................................................................ 81
       8.3.5. Fossil Fuels- Proved oil reserves ............................................................................................................. 82
       8.3.6. Hydroelectricity Installed Capacity ............................................................................................................ 83
       8.3.7. Natural Gas Consumption ........................................................................................................................ 84
       8.3.8. Natural Gas Imports.................................................................................................................................. 85
       8.3.9. Natural Gas Production ............................................................................................................................ 86
       8.3.10. Net Conventional Thermal Electricity Generation .................................................................................... 87
       8.3.11. Net Hydroelectric Power Generation ........................................................................................................ 88
       8.3.12. Petroleum, Consumption .......................................................................................................................... 89
       8.3.13. Petroleum, Production .............................................................................................................................. 90
   8.4. Minerals .........................................................................................................................................91
       8.4.1. Coal Consumption .................................................................................................................................... 91
       8.4.2. Coal Production ........................................................................................................................................ 92
   8.5. Social & Political Risk ...................................................................................................................93
       8.5.1. Political Stability Index .............................................................................................................................. 93
       8.5.2. Transparency Index .................................................................................................................................. 94




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 www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com                                                             icdreports@progressivedigitalmedia.com
The Georgian Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017

   8.6. Technology ....................................................................................................................................95
       8.6.1. Fixed Broadband Internet Subscribers ..................................................................................................... 95
 9.   Appendix .............................................................................................................................. 96
   9.1. Contact Us .....................................................................................................................................96
   9.2. About SDI.......................................................................................................................................96
   9.3. Disclaimer ......................................................................................................................................96




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 www.strategicdefenceintelligence.com                                                     icdreports@progressivedigitalmedia.com
The Georgian Defense Industry-Market Opportunities and Entry Strategies Analyses and Forecasts to 2017


 LIST OF FIGURES
 Figure 1: Georgian Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008–2012 ................................................................................................................ 16
 Figure 2: Georgian Defense Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013–2017 ................................................................................................................ 17
 Figure 3: Georgian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2008–2012 .................. 20
 Figure 4: Georgian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure Growth and Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2013–2017 .................. 21
 Figure 5: Georgian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure, 2008–2012 ................................................................................................................... 22
 Figure 6: Georgian Per-Capita Defense Expenditure, 2013–2017 ................................................................................................................... 23
 Figure 7: Georgian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2008–2012 ........................................................... 25
 Figure 8: Georgian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2013–2017 ........................................................... 26
 Figure 9: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008–2012 .................................................................................................... 27
 Figure 10: Georgian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013–2017 .................................................................................................. 28
 Figure 11: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008–2012 ............................................................................................... 29
 Figure 12: Georgian Defense Revenue Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013–2017 ............................................................................................... 30
 Figure 13: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2008–2012 .............................................................................................. 32
 Figure 14: Georgian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ Million), 2013–2017 .............................................................................................. 33
 Figure 15: SDI Terrorism Heat Map, 2011 ....................................................................................................................................................... 35
 Figure 16: SDI Terrorism Index, 2011 .............................................................................................................................................................. 36
 Figure 17: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2008–2012 vs. 2013–2017 ....................................................................................................... 40
 Figure 18: Per-Capita Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$), 2012 ................................................................. 41
 Figure 19: Defense Expenditure of the World’s Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2012 and 2017 ......................................................... 42
 Figure 20: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2012 .................................................................. 43
 Figure 21: Georgian Defense Import Trend, 2007–2011 (TIV values) .............................................................................................................. 47
 Figure 22: Georgian Defense Imports by Country (%), 2007–2011 .................................................................................................................. 48
 Figure 23: Georgian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2007–2011 ................................................................................................................ 49
 Figure 24: Industry Dynamics — Porter’s Five Forces Analysis ..................................................................................................................
								
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