Docstoc

The Long Term Forecast of Taiwan Energy Supply and Demand

Document Sample
The Long Term Forecast of Taiwan Energy Supply and Demand Powered By Docstoc
					Overview of Chineses Taipei’s
Energy Sector:
Current Status and Plans for Future
Development

           Huang, Yophy *
         Bor, Yunchang Jeffrey
           Peng, Chieh-Yu
Content
   Introduction and Country Overview
   Energy and Environmental Policy
   Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework
   Model Results for Business As Usual
    Case and Other Scenarios
   Future Plans
Introduction
   Western edge of the Pacific Ocean,
   South of Japan,
   North of the Philippines,
   160 km off the southeast coast of
    mainland Chain across the Taiwan Strait
    Landscape
   2/3 is Mountianous, only ¼ is arable
   Rivers are short, but useful for power
    generation
   23 million population on 36,000 km2 one
    of the most densely populated
   With biodiversity
      Economy
   Foreign trade has been the engine of Taiwan's
    economic growth (FX Reserve ranks 4th )
   A leading producer of high-technology goods
   GDP (2008) = US$ 392 billion, per capita GDP =
    US$ 17,116
   Agriculture accounts for 2%, Services at 73%, and
    Industry around 25%.
   Unemployment Rate (Jul. 2010) is 5.20%; lower
    than 2% before 1990.
   Development relies on further transformation to a
    high technology and service-oriented economy
 Growth
             year
    rate
    6.38    1995
    5.54     1996
    5.48     1997
    3.47     1998
    5.97     1999                 Eco Growth Rates Overtime
    5.80     2000
                        10
   -1.65     2001
                         8
    5.26     2002
                         6
    3.67     2003   %
                         4
    6.19     2004        2

    4.70     2005        0

                        -2
    5.44     2006
                        95


                             97


                                  99


                                       01


                                            03


                                                        05


                                                             07


                                                                  09


                                                                       11
                        19


                             19


                                  19


                                       20


                                            20


                                                        20


                                                             20


                                                                  20


                                                                       20
                        -4
    5.98     2007
                                                 year
    0.73     2008
   -1.91     2009
8.2~10.1 2010(f)
     4.5 2011(f)
Energy Facts
          Share of world population: 0.3%
              Land area: 0.06% of total

    Share of world energy consumption: 1.0%

    Share of world electricity consumption:1.3%

    Per capita power consumption: 9,550 KWh
      Rank 13th in the world
    ~ 3.7 times of world average

     Total Amount of CO2 Emission: 261 MT
        Rank 22nd around the world
         ~ 1.0 % of world total

         2005 Data from IEA Statistics of 2007
    Energy Policy
   With scarce natural resources, thus depends
    almost exclusively on imported energy (99%).
   Formal energy policy framework formulated in
    1973, after the first energy crisis.
   In the latest revision, the goal of Taiwan’s
    energy policy has been set to establish a liberal,
    orderly, efficient, clean, and sustainable energy
    demand and supply system
      Energy Authority
   Energy Commission under the Ministry of
    Economic Affairs (MOEA) in 1979.
   In 2004, upgraded as the Bureau of Energy (BOE)
   Formulate and implement national energy policies
    such as the "Energy Management Act (EMA)",
    "Electricity Act (EA)", "Petroleum Administration
    Act (PAA)", "Regulations Governing Administration
    of Gas Utilities (RGAGU)", and other energy-
    related regulations.
    Energy Authority
BOE also :
   Guides the operations of energy
    enterprises
   Evaluates energy supply and demand
   Establishes energy database system
   Promotes energy conservation programs
   Implements R&D on energy tech.
   Promotes international energy cooperation.
    Main Approaches*
   Stabilizing energy supply,
   Increasing energy efficiency,
   Deregulating energy markets,
   Emphasizing energy security and
    environmental protection,
   Enhancing energy R&D,
   Promoting energy education
     Environmental Protection
   Environmental protection policies developed later.
   In 1987, "Environmental Protection
    Administration" (EPA) was established as a
    formal administration.
   The EPA mandate includes: air quality and noise
    control, water quality , waste management,
    environmental sanitation and toxic substance
    management, supervision, and evaluation, and
    many others.
    Focus on Climate Change
   Many Environmental Levies/Charges
    implemented in the1990s.
   The EPA has been actively responding to the
    UNFCC.
   Currently facilitating the legislation
    of“Greenhouse Gases Reduction Act (GHGRA)”
   Tentative goal of the reduction of CO2 emission:
    return to the level of 2008 between 2016 and
    2020; return to the level of 2000 (=214.5 Mt) in
    2025.
The
    Higher Profile of
    Energy/Environmental Authorities
   The BOE will be upgraded as the Ministry of
    Economy and Energy,
   The EPA will be upscaled to the Department of
    Environment and Resources.
   Taiwan’s core principle of energy policy has
    been shifted to the balancing of the “three
    Es”, seeking a “Win-Win-Win Solution” for
    energy security, environment protection, and
    economic competitiveness.
   National Energy Conference
The National Energy Conference (April, 2009) further
  developed the following four major policies :
 Sustaining energy development and establishing energy
  security for a low carbon society;
 Developing energy technology and applying energy
  conservation and carbon dioxide reduction technology;
 Promoting efficient energy management and setting up
  green power and a concentrated non-energy industry;
  and
 Designing energy price and an open energy market for
  reasonable cost-based rates
  Draft GHG Reduction Act
Will control GHG emission in three phases:
 Phase 1: emission required to conduct
  GHG inventories, verification, and
  registration
 Phase 2: performance standards would be
  implemented to control per unit
  consumption or per unit product emission
 Phase 3: a cap-and-trade system would be
  implemented
    Renewable Energy
    Development Act (2009)
   Give credits to the total amount of renewable energy
    in the range of 6,500MW to 10,000MW,
   Establish funds to subsidize renewable energy, to set
    up purchase rates,
   Design procurement rates for different renewable
    resources,
   To give incentives to highly potential self-faculties,
   Assist renewable energy owners in acquiring land.
   Based on government target, installed capacity of
    renewable energy is projected to be around 8,450MW,
    or 15% of the system total installed
   capacity around 56,640MW in 2025.
    Renewable Energy Target
   2,500MW will come from hydro, 3,000MW from
    wind power, 1,000MW from solar photovoltaic
    (PV), 1,400MW from biomass,5 50MW from fuel
    cell, geothermal and ocean power.
   Taiwan Power Company’s (Taipower’s) 7th
    transmission and substation plan from
    2010~2015 will greatly enhance the system’s
    ability to connect a large scale of wind power
    and solar PV to the power grids.
    Wind Power
   The offshorewind power project started in 2007,
    up to 300MW until 2011
   Renewable Energy Development Act offers
    preferential price of wind energy and to ensure
    that not less than the average cost of power
    generation from fossil fuels
   However, the annual CF (capacity factor, see
    Appendix) decreased significantly, from 0.43 to
    0.27 with more wind turbines installed and low
    operational performance was also a serious
    problem.
    Wind Power Problems
   Average wind speed (5.6m/s) is lower than
    other countries
   Need to develop localized low speed onshore
    wind turbines and high efficiency SWTs
    ( Small wind Turbines) in the future.
   Should focus on producing power from them,
    instead of installing capacity of wind turbines
   Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines on
    June 5, 2008
   and approved the Energy Conservation
    and Carbon Dioxide Reduction Action
    Plan based on the Guidelines on
    September 4, 2008.
     Low Energy Prices
   Historically, Energy prices have been low in
    Taiwan, even during the oil-price spikes in mid-
    2008.
   For exmaple, prices for 95 Unleaded Gasoline
    (US dollars per liter) were $0.64 in 2002, $0.9 in
    Sept. 2009.
   Average electricity prices (US$/kWh) were lower
    than $0.07 for the two decades from1988 to
    2007, and rose to $0.08 in 2008
   Thus, consveration incentive is weak and energy
    efficiency low.
          Electricity Rates Comparison
                                                                                NT$/kWh
 NT$/kWh        residential        industrial     NT$/kWh            residential     industrial
  Taiwan                 2.586             1.833    Finland                4.5469             2.54
   China                 2.249               3.62      UK                  6.8674          4.0765
   Japan                5.7067            6.2404    Ireland                7.6514          4.6723
   Korea                3.1985            2.1637    France                 4.9546           1.756
    HK                  3.8242            2.9565      Italy                8.0904          7.4318
 Singapore              4.4842            3.5121 Switerland                4.2647          2.6341
 Malaysia               2.3019            2.2201    Poland                 4.7351          2.5714
 Philipines             6.2672            4.8722    Turkey                 3.8257           3.418
 Indonesia              1.9901            2.1678     Czek                  4.5783          3.6062
  Thailand              3.0279            2.7715   Portugese               6.6793          4.0138
   USA                  3.3239            2.0069   Hungary                 5.8953           4.202
  Mexico                2.9163            3.1985    Austria                6.7106           4.202
New Zealand             5.0486            2.1323   Slovekia                5.8953           4.296
   資料來源:The
  Norway      International Energy Agency(IEA)《ELECTRICITY INFORMATION(2008 Edition)》、美國The Energy
                        4.1393            1.5052
         Information Administration (EIA)、馬來西亞電力公司(TNB)2007年統計資料、中國社會科學院。
    註:1美元等於31.358元新臺幣
                                                                                                 27
    Green Tax Reform
   the high-profile Tax Reform Committee (May
    2008 ~ Dec. 2009) proposed a Green Tax
    Reform
   To levy energy taxes and carbon taxes on
    exhaustible fossil fuels on a revenue-neutral
    basis; that is, by recycling Green Tax revenues
    into income tax cuts and subsidies for public
    transportation systems
   Provide incentives for energy savings and CO2
    abatement without hurting the economy and
    the poor.
   Very likely to be legislated in 2011.
                 Green Tax Planned
                       Water Rights Fees(not yet levied)、Hot Spring Fees、
                       Water Resource Conservation and Feedback Fees
         Resource       Mines Fees

Gree        tax          Soil & Stones Extraction Fees
                       Excise Tax、Vehicle
n                      Fuel Fees, Oil Fund        Energy Tax
Tax
                                                     Movable Polluting
        Pollution      Air Pollution Control Fees
                                                         Resources
                                                     Fixed
         Fees or                                       Construction Sites
                       Soil and Underground Water Pollution
           tax         Control Fees
                         Sea Disposal Fees (not yet levied)
                         Water Pollution Fees (not yet
 Environmental           levied)
 Tax                     Noise Control Fees

        CO2 added as      Waste Disposal Fees
                          Reclyclable Disposal
        new                                                                 29
Six Key Emerging Industries
Plan
   Green energy and tourism, medicine and
    health care, biotechnology,, culture and
    creation, and high-end agriculture.
   Goal: to upgrade industrial competitiveness
    and break through the difficulties facing
    exports at a time when the international
    economic situation is yet to recover.
Taiwan’s Energy Status
(1/3)- Supply
   Eenergy supply grew from 42 million
    kLOE in 1986, to 139 million kLOE in
    2006
   Annual growth rate averaging 6.2%.
   Petroleum and Coal account for 97%.



                                           31
                                                                   Taiwan’s Energy Status


                 Structure of Energy Supply in Taiwan:
                 1986 - 2007

                 160      Nuclear power generation
                          Water power generation
                 140      Liquefied Natural Gas
                          Natural Gas
                 120      Petroleum
                          Coal
(Million kLOE)




                 100

                  80
                                                                                     50%

                  60

                  40

                  20                                                                 47%

                   0
                   1986      1990       1995         2000
                                                       ?    2005     2006     2007
Taiwan’s Energy Status
(2/3)- Demand
   Energy consumed 37.73 million kLOE in
    1986, increased to 112.28 million kLOE
    in 2007
   Average annual growth rate around
    5.5%.
   Industrial and transportation are the
    main users.
                                                                 Taiwan’s Energy Status

The Structure of Taiwan’s Energy
Demand by Sector, 1986-2007
                          Energy               Transportation
                          Industrial           Agricultural
                          Residential          Commercial
                 120
                          Other                Non-energy Consumption

                 100
                                                                                11%
                  80
(Million kLOE)




                  60
                                                                                53%
                  40


                  20
                                                                                14%
                   0
                   1986       1990      1995   2000     2005      2006   2007
    Taiwan’s Energy Status
    (3/3)- CO2 emissions
   Total CO2 emissions in 1990 were 108.6 million
    metric tons, growing to 215.6 mmt in 2000,
    then to 265.8 mmt in 2007.
   The average annual growth rate of total CO2
    emissions for Taiwan over 1990 -2008 was
    4.8%.
   It is noteworthy that in 2008, total CO2
    emissions grew by -4%, falling from 2007
    levels to 255 million metric tons, due to oil
    price hike and financial crisis.
Taiwan’s LEAP Model
Framework
            Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework

System Framework of
Taiwan LEAP Model
                Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




  Taiwan’s
   Energy
Demand Side -
  The LEAP
 Framework
                Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




  Taiwan’s
   Energy
Demand Side -
  The LEAP
 Framework
              Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




BAU: Business As Usual
Scenario for Taiwan
BAU                           Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




          BAU
         Based on the structure of Taiwan’s
          energy sector as described in “Energy
          Balance Sheet of Taiwan”,
         Which is prepared on the basis of the
          OECD Energy Statistical Tabular Form
          and in coordination with the needs of
          Taiwan (Bureau of Energy, MOEA, 2009).
BAU                               Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




          Demographic Trends
         Taiwan’s population of 23 million in 2008
          is expected to fall to 20.3 million by 2056.
         The average number of persons per
          household was 3.01 persons in 2008
         The growth rate of household size, based
          on historical data (1998~2008), has
          averaged -1.33% annually
BAU                 Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




        Economic Growth (1/2)


   Recent
    GDP
  Growth
  Rates of
  Various
 Industries
BAU                 Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




        Economic Growth (2/2)


   Recent
    GDP
  Growth
  Rates of
  Various
 Industries
BAU                                                  Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




           Energy Conversion (1/3)
          Summary of the Current Status of Installed Electricity
           Generation Capacity and Plans for Near-term Capacity
           Additions for the Power System Nationwide
                                                                        Unit: Thousand kW
                                                       Additional capacity to be added from
          Unit                       2007     2008
                                                                     2008-2017
          Coal                       11,897   11,897                                 7,098
          Gas                        12,726   13,197                                 5,327
          Fuel                        3,610    3,610                                   109
          Nuclear energy              5,144    5,144                                 2,700
          Pumped hydro storage        2,602    2,602                                      -
          Renewable energy                                                           3,211
          Hydro (conventional)        1,921    1,938                                   796
          Other                         182      246                                 2,415
          Total installed capacity   38,082   38,634                                18,445
BAU                                    Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




          Energy Conversion (2/3)
          CPC Corporation Taiwan LNG Terminal Existing Capacity
           and Expansion Plan
                               Unit: Thousand Metric Tons per year
          Year      Yungan Plant      Taichung Plant      Total
          2007               8,280                  42      8,322
          2008               9,000                 360      9,360
          2009               7,440               1,500      8,940
          2010               9,000               3,000     12,000
          2015               9,000               4,000     13,000
          2020               9,000               7,000     16,000
          2025              10,000              10,000     20,000
BAU                                   Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




          Energy Conversion (3/3)
         Energy Conversion Module Framework for Tawian LEAP
          Model
             Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




Other Scenarios Modeled
(GOV, FIN, RET, ALL)
GOV                          Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




          GOV: Government Action
         The government’s target is to
          reduce the energy intensity in
          Tawian’s economy
         By enhancing energy efficiency, with
          an overall goal of reducing the
          economy’s energy intensity by an
          average of over 2 % annually thru
          2025.
FIN                                  Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework

          FIN: Financial Tsunami (a
          sensitivity case)
         The FIN was established to examine the impacts
          of lowered economic growth asumptions in the
          medium and longer term on energy use.
         Based on assumption derived from the Taipower
          forecast, in the FIN sensitivity analysis case, the
          long-term forecast for overall economic growth
          in Taiwan falls to 3.42%/yr in 2016 and
          2.59%/yr in 2021.
RET                                  Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework

          RET:Retirement of the
          Nuclear plants (1/2)
         The difference between the RET and BAU cases :
      •   The BAU case assumes that those units will
          either be replaced with units of similar capacity
          at the time of retirement of the original units, or
          that their life will be extended, as is relatively
          common today.
      •   The RET case assumes that the 2 units in the
          4th nuclear power plant are not completed and
          thus not added to the power generation system.
RET                                           Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework

        RET:Retirement of
        Nuclear power plants (2/2)
           Current Status and Retirement Schedule for Taiwan’s
            Existing Nuclear Power


 Existing installed capacity: 5,144 Thousand kW

                                      Date of Planned   Total Installed Capacity
 Nuclear Plant   Installed Capacity
                                          Retirement           at Retirement

 1St             1,272 thousand kW         2018              3,872 thousand kW
 2nd             1,970 thousand kW         2021              1,092 thousand kW
 3rd             1,902 thousand kW         2024                 0 thousand KW
ALL                           Taiwan’s LEAP Model Framework




      ALL: Combined
         Reflects the combined assumptions:
         The government’s energy conservation
          and carbon emissions reduction policy
         + the long-term impacts of the financial
          tsunami on Taiwan’s GDP
         + the retirement of nuclear power plants
          as in the RET case
         All take place.
Model Results for
Business As Usual Case
BAU                                                 Model Results for Business As Usual Case




      Demand-side Results (1/2)
         Energy Demand-Outlook by Sector, BAU Case
                           1200
                                   Transportation
                           1000    Services
                                   Industry
                                   Agriculture
                            800
                                   Household
           Trillion kcal




                            600


                            400


                            200


                              0
                                  2008    2010      2015   2020   2025   2030
BAU: by sector
   Industry’s largest share still increases
    over time.
   Followed by transportation sector.
BAU                                                   Model Results for Business As Usual Case




      Demand-side Results (2/2)
         The Outlook of Energy Demand by Fuel, BAU Case

                          1200                                               Residual Fuel Oil
                                                                             Natural Gas
                                                                             Naphtha
                          1000
                                                                             Metalurgical Coke
                                                                             LPG
                          800
                                                                             Kerosene
          Trillion kcal




                                                                             Jet Kerosene
                          600                                                Heat
                                                                             Gasoline
                          400                                                Electricity
                                                                             Diesel
                          200                                                Coke Oven Gas
                                                                             Coal Bituminous
                             0                                               Coal Anthracite
                                 2008   2010   2015     2020   2025   2030   Blast Furnace Gas
BAU                                               Model Results for Business As Usual Case




      Energy Conversion Results
         Energy Conversion by Fuel Category, BAU Case

                          1200
                                                                 Residual Fuel Oil
                          1000                                   Other Petroleum Product
                                                                 Natural Gas
                                                                 Naphtha
                          800
                                                                 Metalurgical Coke
          Trillion kcal




                                                                 LPG
                          600                                    Kerosene
                                                                 Jet Kerosene
                          400                                    Heat
                                                                 Gasoline
                                                                 Electricity
                          200                                    Diesel
                                                                 Coke Oven Gas
                             0                                   Blast Furnace Gas
                                 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BAU                                                                     Model Results for Business As Usual Case




             CO2 Emissions (1/2)
                                             Carbon Dioxide Emissions, BAU Case
      Million Metric Tonnes CO 2 Equivalent




                                              450
                                              400    Transformation
                                                     Demand
                                              350
                                              300
                                              250
                                              200
                                              150
                                              100
                                               50
                                                0
                                                    2008      2010    2015   2020   2025    2030
BAU                                                                      Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios




                  CO2 Emissions (2/2)
                                            Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel Category, BAU Case
                                             450                                             Residual Fuel Oil
      Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent




                                             400                                             Refinery Gas
                                                                                             Petroleum Coke
                                             350                                             Natural Gas
                                             300                                             Naphtha
                                                                                             Metalurgical Coke
                                             250                                             LPG
                                             200                                             Kerosene
                                                                                             Jet Kerosene
                                             150                                             Gasoline
                                             100                                             Diesel
                                                                                             Coke Oven Gas
                                              50                                             Coal Bituminous
                                               0                                             Coal Anthracite
                                                   2008   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030   Blast Furnace Gas
Results for Other Taiwan
Energy Scenarios
BAU vs GOV                                         Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


                 GOV vs. BAU Case Energy Demand
                 Difference by Energy Category
                              2008   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030
                                                                        Residual Fuel Oil
                         0
                                                                        Natural Gas
                                                                        Naphtha
                        -50
                                                                        Metalurgical Coke
                                                                        LPG
                       -100
                                                                        Kerosene
       Trillion kcal




                                                                        Jet Kerosene
                       -150
                                                                        Heat
                                                                        Gasoline
                       -200
                                                                        Electricity
                                                                        Diesel
                       -250
                                                                        Coke Oven Gas
                                                                        Coal Bituminous
                       -300                                             Coal Anthracite
                                                                        Blast Furnace Gas
                       -350
Energy Demand Less

   Under the GOV case, demand side
    energy use totals 805.2 trillion kcal by
    2030,
   Which is 327.8 trillion kcal less than in
    the BAU case.
BAU vs GOV                                     Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


           GOV vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
           Output Difference by Energy Category

                              2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
                        50                                    Residual Fuel Oil
                                                              Other Petroleum Product
                         0                                    Natural Gas
                                                              Naphtha
                        -50                                   Metalurgical Coke
                                                              LPG
       Trillion kcal




                       -100                                   Kerosene
                                                              Jet Kerosene
                       -150                                   Heat
                                                              Gasoline
                       -200                                   Electricity
                                                              Diesel
                       -250                                   Coke Oven Gas
                                                              Blast Furnace Gas
                       -300
Energy conversion output less
   GOV results show total energy
    conversion output for 2030 of 904.3
    trillion kcal,
   which is 217.4 trillion kcal less than that
    of the BAU case
BAU vs GOV                                                 Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


              GOV vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide
              Emission Difference by Fuel Category
                                      2008   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030
                                                                                Residual Fuel Oil
                                  0
                                                                                Refinery Gas
                                                                                Petroleum Coke
                                -20
                                                                                Natural Gas
                                -40                                             Naphtha
       Million Metric Tonnes




                                                                                Metalurgical Coke
                                -60                                             LPG
                                                                                Kerosene
                                -80                                             Jet Kerosene
                                                                                Gasoline
                               -100
                                                                                Diesel
                               -120                                             Coke Oven Gas
                                                                                Coal Bituminous
                               -140                                             Coal Anthracite
                                                                                Blast Furnace Gas
                               -160
BAU vs FIN                                          Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


        FIN vs. BAU Case Energy Demand
        Differences by Fuel Category
                               2008          2010         2015      2020         2025   2030
                          0


                         -10


                         -20
         Trillion kcal




                         -30          Blast Furnace Gas      Coal Anthracite
                                      Coal Bituminous        Coke Oven Gas
                                      Diesel                 Gasoline
                         -40
                                      Heat                   Jet Kerosene
                                      Kerosene               LPG
                         -50          Metalurgical Coke      Naphtha
                                      Natural Gas            Residual Fuel Oil
                         -60
BAU vs FIN                                    Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


        FIN vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
        Output Difference by Fuel Category
                              2008     2010        2015    2020     2025     2030
                        20

                        10

                         0
                                 Residual Fuel Oil
        Trillion kcal




                        -10      Other Petroleum Product
                                 Natural Gas
                                 Naphtha
                        -20      Metalurgical Coke
                                 Kerosene
                        -30      Heat
                                 Gasoline
                                 Electricity
                        -40
                                 Diesel
                                 Blast Furnace Gas
                        -50
BAU vs FIN                                                              Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


        FIN vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide
        Emission Difference by Fuel Category
                                                      2008       2010       2015      2020    2025    2030
                                                 0
         Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent




                                                 -2

                                                 -4

                                                 -6
                                                       Blast Furnace Gas   Coke Oven Gas
                                                 -8    Diesel              Gasoline
                                                       Jet Kerosene        LPG
                                                -10
                                                       Metalurgical Coke   Naphtha

                                                -12    Natural Gas         Petroleum Coke


                                                -14
BAU vs RET                               Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


                 RET vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
                 Output Differences by Fuel Category
                 14
                                                 Blast Furnace Gas      Diesel
                 12                              Electricity            Heat
                                                 Kerosene               Metalurgical Coke
                 10                              Naphtha                Natural Gas

                       8
       Trillion kcal




                       6

                       4

                       2

                       0

                   -2
                           2008   2010    2015       2020            2025        2030
BAU vs RET                                                                Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


        RET vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide
        Emissions Differences by Fuel Category
                                                60
         Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent




                                                50          Coal Bituminous
                                                            Natural Gas
                                                40


                                                30


                                                20


                                                10


                                                 0
                                                     2008        2010         2015   2020    2025     2030
BAU vs ALL                                        Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


                     ALL vs. BAU Case Energy Demand
                     Differences by Fuel Category
                            2008      2010       2015       2020      2025   2030
                       0

                      -50

                     -100

                     -150
     Trillion kcal




                     -200    Blast Furnace Gas    Coal Anthracite
                             Coal Bituminous      Coke Oven Gas
                     -250    Diesel               Electricity
                             Gasoline             Heat
                     -300    Jet Kerosene         Kerosene
                             LPG                  Metalurgical Coke
                     -350    Naphtha              Natural Gas
                             Residual Fuel Oil
                     -400
BAU vs ALL                                         Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


                     ALL vs. BAU Case Energy Conversion
                     Output Differences by Fuels Category

                            2008         2010        2015    2020      2025     2030
                      50

                       0

                      -50
     Trillion kcal




                     -100          Residual Fuel Oil
                                   Other Petroleum Product
                     -150          Natural Gas
                                   Naphtha
                                   Metalurgical Coke
                     -200          Kerosene
                                   Heat
                                   Gasoline
                     -250          Electricity
                                   Diesel
                                   Blast Furnace Gas
                     -300
BAU vs ALL                                                               Results for Other Taiwan Energy Scenarios


                                         ALL vs. BAU Case Carbon Dioxide Emission
                                         Differences by Fuels Category

                                                  2008        2010       2015        2020    2025   2030
                                             10
      Million Metric Tonnes CO2 Equivalent




                                              0

                                       -10

                                       -20

                                       -30

                                       -40           Blast Furnace Gas   Coke Oven Gas
                                                     Diesel              Gasoline
                                       -50
                                                     Jet Kerosene        LPG
                                       -60           Metalurgical Coke   Naphtha
                                                     Natural Gas         Petroleum Coke
                                       -70
                                                     Refinery Gas        Residual Fuel Oil
                                       -80
Summary of LEAP Findings
   The ALL case, results in the greatest reductions,
    followed by the GOV case.
   The FIN case has less effect on energy
    consumption than the GOV or ALL cases,
    indicating that lowered economic growth is likely
    to have less effect on energy demand than
    aggressive policies to change energy
    consumption behavior patterns.
   Retirement of existing nuclear power plants as
    scheduled (RET) has a negative impact on
    energy supply and an increase in CO2 emissions
                                                                 Conclusion


                Comparison of Total Demand Side
                Energy Use, all Scenarios

                       2008   2010   2015   2020   2025   2030
                  0

                 -50

                -100
                              ALL
Trillion kcal




                -150
                              BAU
                -200          FIN
                              GOV
                -250          RET

                -300

                -350

                -400
                                                                       Conclusion


                Comparison of the Energy
                Conversion Output for All Scenarios
                       2008         2010   2015   2020   2025   2030
                 50

                  0

                 -50

                -100
Trillion kcal




                -150          ALL
                              BAU
                -200
                              FIN
                -250          GOV
                              RET
                -300

                -350

                -400
                                                                                           Conclusion


Comparison of Carbon Dioxide
Emissions in all Scenarios
                                        100
Million Metric Tonnes CO 2 Equivalent




                                         50


                                          0
                                               2008     2010   2015   2020   2025   2030
                                         -50

                                                      ALL
                                        -100          BAU
                                                      FIN
                                        -150          GOV
                                                      RET

                                        -200
    Status of Nuclear Power in Taiwan
      6 Operating Units and 2 Units under Construction
    → Chinshan,BWR4,636 MWe*2, commissioned in 1977
    → Kuosheng,BWR6,980 MWe*2, commissioned in 1982
    → Maanshan,PWR, 956 MWe*2, commissioned in 1984
    → Lungmen,ABWR,1350 MWe*2, to be commissioned in 2010
   Total Generation Capacity in 2007: 5,144 MWe
       11.2% of Installed Capacity
    Total Power Generated in 2007 : 39.3 TWh
       16.7% of electricity generation ; 7.97% of Energy Supply
   Total power Generation Cost of Nuclear Power in 2007 :
       0.63 NT$ / kwh
Nuclear Power Stations of TPC
                                                                                                                                                  N   W

                                                                                                                                                          N
                                                                                                                                                                      T

                                                                                                                                                                                           (ABWR - 1,350 MWe × 2)
                                                                                                                              T
                                                                                                                                                                          T

   (BWR - 636 MWe × 2)
                                                                                                                      T
                                                                                                                  W       T
                                                                                                              T                                                               N
                                                                                                          W
                                                                                                          T                                                       H




      ChinShan                                                                                                                                                                                  Lunmen
                                                                                                                                                              H


                                 0                                50 (km)
                                                                                                          H           T
                                                 SCALE                                W
                                                                                                                                                          H
                                                                                  W
                                                                                                                                                      H



                                                                          T



                                                                                                  H
                                                                      H
                                                                                                                                                              T
                                                                              H                               H
                                                              T                                       H
                                                                                              H
                                                                                                                                                      H




                                                      T                                       H

                                                                                                                          H       H
                                                                                                                              H       H       H
                                                                                      H                                                   H
                                                                                              H
                                         T                                                H

                                                                                  H

                                                                                  H                                                   H



                         T
                             W                            T




(PWR - 951 MWe × 2)                                                                                                                                                               (BWR - 985 MWe × 2)
  MaanShan                                   T
                                                          H
                                                              H


                                                                                                                                                                                   KuoSheng
                                                                      H
                                                                  H
                                     T



                                                                                                      H
                                                                                                  H

                                             T


                                                  T




                                                                              N   W




                                                                                                                                                                                                         81
82
        Twists and Turns of Government Policy
                          on
                 Nuclear Power in 2001
• The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) , on
  which anti-nuclear is on the platform, won the
  Presidential Election on March 18, 2000
 Oct. 27, 2000, Premier Chang announced to
  terminate the construction of the 4th Nuclear
  Power Plant
 Resulted in Political turmoil, stock market plunge,
  and economic downturn (growth rate turned -
  2.1% in 2001), first time ever in Taiwan since
  1949.
     2012/10/16       Department ESS, NTHU, Taiwan      83
           Nuclear-Free Homeland
                with 4th NPP
ject

Feb.14, 2001, a memorandum was signed by the Executive
 Yuan and Legislative Yuan
1. Resume the construction of the 4th NPP.
2.“A Nuclear-Free Homeland” was the consensus among
   all the political parties.
3. Executive Yuan will draft an “Energy Bill” related to
       the utilization of nuclear energy.
 Basic Environment Act (Dec. 11, 2002)


Article 23:
 The government shall establish plans to gradually
achieve the goal of becoming a nuclear-free country.
 The government will also strengthen nuclear safety
management and control, protections against radiation,
and the management of radioactive materials and
monitoring of environmental radiation to safeguard the
public from the dangers of radiation exposure.
     National Energy Policy Drafted by
   the Newly Elected Government (2008)
Policy : 「2008 Sustainable Energy Policy」
  「Promote the diversification of energy resource, increase the weighting
  of low-carbon energy in the energy portfolio, keep the nuclear power as
  a viable option of energy supply, the power generated from low-carbon
  primary energy resource will increase above 55% in 2025」

Strategy Plan : 「Energy Security Strategy Plan」
the Ministry of Economic Affairs
   「Propose a plan to increase the percentage of renewable energy and
  nuclear power from current 9% to 18% at year of 2005. The tentative
  goal of the reduction of carbon dioxide generation: return to the level of
  2008 between 2016 and 2020; return to the level of 2000 at 2025.
             (Total generation at 2000 is 214.5 Million Tons) 」
                2009 National Energy Conferences


• Nuclear Power is discussed in the section of Energy
  Technology and Industry Development
• It is Suggested in the Conclusions of Group Discussion that:
   1. Life Extension of the Existing Nuclear Power Units
   2. Build Six Nuclear Power Units at the Existing Sites, the First One
      will be Commercialized in 2020
   3. Share of Nuclear Power in the Install Capacity increases to 20% ~
       25% in 2025, and to 30% for the years beyond 2025
   4. Strengthen the Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power
   5. Promotion of the Safety of Nuclear Power Plant operation through
      International Cooperation
   6. Government should be Heavily Involved in the Identification of the
      Repository Site of Low Level Nuclear Waste
   7. Seek Regional Cooperation on the Spent Nuclear Fuel and High
       Level Waste Management
Anti-Nuclear Advocates
 in the National Energy Conferences

Nuclear Power is Against Justice Among Generations
Safety Concerns of Nuclear Power Plant, Especially on
 the Issue of Earthquake
Lack of Proper Trained Engineers Running Nuclear
 Power Plants
Taiwan has no Capability in Handling Nuclear Waste
Through proper load management, the Install Generation
 Capacity is Enough to Cover the Future Demand
       Anti-Nuclear Advocates
 in the National Energy Conferences

TaiPower under-estimated the generation cost of
nuclear power
Nuclear Power generates carbon dioxide too
IPCC Has not Accepted Nuclear Power as a Way to
  Reduce the Generation of Carbon Dioxide
Not all the Environmentalists Recommend Nuclear
 Power as a Viable Option to Deal with the Climate
 Changes

    2012/10/16             wan                     89
       Anti-Nuclear Advocate
   in the National Energy Conferences


Not All the Major Countries Has Adopted Nuclear
Power
Taiwan Has Enough Renewable Energy to Cover
the Needs
LNG is a Better Choice than Nuclear Power
Nuclear Power will Take Away Valuable Resources
      NPPs at the Crossroad
• Nuclear power has significant contribution to
  Taiwan’s economic growth
• Nuclear power is a reliable energy supply, and
  helpful for the reduction of CO2 emission in the
  future
• Government intends to initiate the second phase
  of nuclear power development plan
• The major obstacles are the lack of an
  executable, feasible, and dependable
  management plan of low level waste and nuclear
  spent fuel
     Future Plans for LEAP
   Calculate demand elasticities for all types of
    energy due to energy prices will increase in the
    LR.
   Impact of green tax reform energy prices
    increase on energy demand and the economy
   Max Nuclear Power vs. Min Nuclear Power
   Population growth rates on energy demand and
    CO2 emission
   Impact of Green Energy Industry Plan

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:13
posted:10/16/2012
language:English
pages:92