Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast State of Oregon by alicejenny

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									                          Oregon Economic and
                           Revenue Forecast


                             September 2011
                             Volume XXXI, No. 3




Michael Jordan                  John A. Kitzhaber, MD                           Prepared By:
Chief Operating Officer               Governor                   Office of Economic Analysis
DAS Director                                            Department of Administrative Services
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                Department of Administrative Services

                                      Michael Jordan
                                        DAS Director
                               Chief Operating Officer


                         Office of Economic Analysis

              Mark McMullen, Acting State Economist
               Kanhaiya Vaidya, Senior Demographer
                         Damon Bell, Senior Analyst
                              Josh Lehner, Economist
              Susan Daniels, Administrative Specialist

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         http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/
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    ii
Foreword


This document contains the Oregon economic and revenue forecasts. The Oregon economic
forecast is published to provide information to planners and policy makers in state agencies and
private organizations for use in their decision making processes. The Oregon revenue forecast is
published to open the revenue forecasting process to public review. It is the basis for much of the
budgeting in state government.

The report is issued four times a year; in March, June, September, and December.

The economic model assumptions and results are reviewed by the Department of Administrative
Services Economic Advisory Committee and by the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors.
The Department of Administrative Services Economic Advisory Committee consists of 15
economists employed by state agencies, while the Governor's Council of Economic Advisors is a
group of 12 economists from academia, finance, utilities, and industry.

Members of the Economic Advisory Committee and the Governor's Council of Economic
Advisors provide a two-way flow of information. The Department of Administrative Services
makes preliminary forecasts and receives feedback on the reasonableness of such forecasts and
assumptions employed. After the discussion of the preliminary forecast, the Department of
Administrative Services makes a final forecast using the suggestions and comments made by the
two reviewing committees.

The results from the economic model are in turn used to provide a preliminary forecast for state
tax revenues. The preliminary results are reviewed by the Council of Revenue Forecast Advisors.
The Council of Revenue Forecast Advisors consists of 15 specialists with backgrounds in
accounting, financial planning, and economics. Members bring specific specialties in tax issues
and represent private practices, accounting firms, corporations, government (Oregon Department
of Revenue and Legislative Revenue Office), and the Governor’s Council of Economic Advisors.
After discussion of the preliminary revenue forecast, the Department of Administrative Services
makes the final revenue forecast using the suggestions and comments made by the reviewing
committee.

Readers who have questions or wish to submit suggestions may contact the Office of Economic
Analysis by telephone at 503-378-3405.




                                             Michael Jordan
                                             DAS Director
                                             Chief Operating Officer




                                                iii
    iv
                                                    Table of Contents


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................................... 7 

I.         ECONOMIC FORECAST ............................................................................................. 15 

A.         National Economic Review and Forecast ......................................................................... 15 

B.         International Review and Outlook .................................................................................... 21 

C.         Western Region................................................................................................................. 29 

D.         Oregon Economic Review and Forecast ........................................................................... 35 

II.        REVENUE FORECAST ................................................................................................ 67 

A.         2011-13 General Fund Revenues ...................................................................................... 67 

B.         Extended General Fund Revenue Outlook ....................................................................... 69 

C.         Tax Law Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 69 

D.         Forecast Risks ................................................................................................................... 70 

E.         Lottery Earnings Forecast ................................................................................................. 71 

F.         Overview of Budgetary Reserves ..................................................................................... 72 

G.         September 2011 Forecast Addendum – Close of Session Forecast .................................. 74 

APPENDIX A:  ECONOMIC FORECAST DETAIL ............................................................ 77 

APPENDIX B:  REVENUE FORECAST DETAIL ............................................................. 103 

APPENDIX C:   POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE AND SEX .................................. 103 




                                                                       v
    vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

September 2011

Oregon Economic Forecast

After a very strong start to 2011, the second quarter job growth came in at a very slow pace.
Preliminary estimates place the second quarter growth at 0.7 percent. At least this is the third
consecutive quarter of positive job growth, the longest continuous stretch since the second
quarter of 2007. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, job growth is up 1.4 percent.

While the total estimated job growth for the second quarter is disappointing, the private sector
has been improving. After a rocky start in the first quarter of 2010, the private sector has added
jobs every quarter. More sectors had job gains relative to job losses. Notable job increases are
reported in manufacturing, retail trade, health services, and leisure and hospitality. Some of the
sectors with relatively higher job losses are wood products, food processing, transportation,
warehousing, and utilities, educational services, and other services. Budget shortfalls have
caught up with the public sector, with declines in all three government levels, notable local
government and in particular local education.

The “headwinds” facing the U.S. economy did not appear to be present in the first quarter in
Oregon, but the second quarter is feeling the effects. Higher gasoline and other commodity
prices are squeezing household budgets. The slowing impacts around the country have come to
Oregon, but the private sector is still producing more jobs, albeit at a relatively slow pace. The
real story of the slow growth in the second quarter is the government sector. Comprising around
18 percent of total employment in Oregon, job losses in this sector will have a damping impact
on the economy moving forward.

At this juncture in the business cycle, using the past two expansions as a guide, the Oregon
economy typically adds around 3,400 jobs per month. Over the past twelve months, Oregon has
added 2,100 jobs per month. There are two main drags on economic growth currently: the
continued delayed improvement in the housing market and the public sector pullback. These two
issues more than account for the discrepancy between the typical expansion employment gains
and the ones we are seeing today. Housing related industries (construction, home and garden
supply stores, mortgage loan brokers and real estate employment) normally add 575 jobs each
month; however over the past year they have added, on average, only 50 jobs per month.
Similarly the public sector typically adds 350 jobs per month, however over the past year,
excluding the temporary Census workers; the public sector has averaged cuts of 475 jobs per
month. This net swing of over 1,300 jobs per month between the past two expansions and today
results in the difference in the total nonfarm employment figures.

The U.S. economy got through the soft patch in 2010 only to hit the “headwinds” of 2011. The
first half growth of real GDP in 2011 is only 0.8 percent. Personal income growth in June was
only 0.1 percent and consumer spending fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since September 2009.
The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 50.9, slightly above its expansionary measure of 50.0 and




                                                7
the fourth monthly decline in the past 5 months. All of this bodes poorly for a second half
rebound for the U.S. economy.

Some of the headwinds in the first half of this year may not be with us in the second half. The
Japan natural disaster should not be squeezing supply chains as the year progresses. The
European debt situation is still unclear with worries arising with Italy and Spain. High
commodity prices are starting to retreat which should help out household budgets.

One piece of good news for the U.S. economy was the July employment report. Unemployment
came down a notch to 9.1 percent and jobs increased by 117,000. But this report brings to
forefront another headwind that has not gotten the attention it deserves. While the private sector
added 154,000 jobs in July, the government sector shed 37,000 jobs. The Minnesota state
government shutdown is likely responsible for about 30,000 jobs in this number and is
temporary. Still, if we take out the entire Minnesota job losses for July, job losses still total over
518,000 since the summer of 2009, a decline of 2.3 percent. The bulk of these job losses are at
the state and local levels. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities notes that the budget cuts
go beyond the layoffs with 44 states and the District of Columbia engaged in cost saving
measures from furlough days, lower worker benefits, cancelling of contracts with vendors,
reducing payments to businesses and nonprofits, and tax increases. All of these measures to some
degree slow down near term economic activity.

Oregon is similar impacted by the need to balance budgets. State and local governments received
federal stimulus funds during the recession and used budget reserves to avoid deeper cuts during
the recession. Now that these funds are no longer available and tax revenues have not recovered
to meet expenditures, budget tightening is leading to worker layoffs and other spending cuts.
Since the summer of 2009, the June 2011 total government employment in Oregon is down 2.2
percent, or around 6,600 less jobs. Although we do not believe this drop in jobs is enough to stop
the present recovery, with other “headwinds” impacting the state, the public sector pull back is
still an additional dampening impact on the economy. For a thorough look at the Oregon public
sector employment picture, see our blog and associated listings by clicking here.

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/07/20/more-on-public-sector-employment/

Although the second quarter of 2011 reported weak but positive job growth, we are not
forecasting a recession for the Oregon economy. Risks of a downturn are heightened and we will
be watching indicators for any further signs of weakening. OEA (Office of Economic Analysis)
forecasts an increase of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2011 for total employment and 1.8
percent in the fourth quarter. Job gains continue to improve moving to nearly 2.0 percent in
2012. For the year average in 2011, total employment is projected to increase 1.7 percent and
rise to 1.95 percent in 2012.

Population growth will be slowly picked up along with the economic recovery. Population
growth is forecasted to be 0.7 percent in 2011, 0.8 percent in 2012, and 1.0 percent in 2013.




                                                  8
Forecast Risks

At the very least, the supply chain disruptions from the natural disaster is Japan are fading away.
High commodity prices are retreating though the price of gold dances to different tune. That’s
about it for relief from the headwinds hitting the US and Oregon economies. Congress managed
to cripple together an agreement to raise the debt ceiling only to have S&P downgrade US
Treasury securities and the Dow drops almost 11 percent in 5 days (August 2 – 8). The risk of
another recession is heightened and the resiliency of the US economy will be tested.

Oregon faces these same headwinds and though our recovery is stronger than the US, it is still
relatively weak and fragile. Our wood products industry will continue to struggle as the housing
market will be slow to recover. Exports have been strong but worries of world financial problems
could slow them down. State and local governments will likely cut more budgets lowering
services and workers.

The color of our outlook has turned more a shade of yellow and less green.

We will continue to monitor and recognize the potential impacts of risk factors on the Oregon
economy. We have identified the major risks now facing the Oregon economy in the list below:

Contagion of the credit crunch and financial market instability. As more time passes, this
downside risk becomes less likely to occur. Credit markets are easing, but consumers and
businesses still have difficulty getting loans. To the extent that credit markets take longer to come
back to some sort of state of normalcy, the current recovery could be slower than projected or
thrown off track. Housing and commercial real estate may take longer for credit conditions to
improve. Oregon will suffer the consequences along with the rest of the nation.

Prolonged housing market instability. Signs are starting to emerge that the housing market has
hit bottom, at least in terms of housing starts, but prices may have further to fall. Foreclosures
and delinquency rates are still relatively high. Oregon, with the rest of the nation, will still see
corrections to the housing market in 2011. The question is whether the job growth will kick in to
alleviate the downward pressures from declining housing prices and oversupply of homes. The
housing market appears to be the biggest threat to a sustained economic recovery in Oregon.

Commodity price inflation. With world economies starting to recover and emerging markets still
strong, the stage is set for higher commodity prices. Food prices are near their 2008 highs. Oil
prices have recently topped $100 a barrel; however WTI is now slightly lower. Industrial metals
are also on the rise. This could be a repeat of commodity price spikes that took place in 2007-2008.
The risk is how disruptive this will be on businesses and whether the commodity price inflation
will lead to general inflation. With a weak recovery that needs to build strength, the commodity
inflation could throw this off track. Then again, if this is only a change in relative prices and wage
costs do not accelerate, this commodity inflation could be short lived.

Loss of federal timber payments to Oregon counties. President Obama included a reduced federal
timber payment package in the 2012 federal budget. The amount has been reduced by 10 percent
and reduces by 20 percent over five years. Questions remain as to whether this item will survive
further budget changes from Congress. If the federal timber payments do not survive, the last


                                                  9
payments to counties will be this October. While this temporary reinstatement helps cover short
term budgets for Oregon counties, finding or replacing this dwindling revenue source will be
imperative as any loss of public services could have adverse impacts on economic activity.

Global Spillovers Both Up and Down. The international list of risks seems to change by the day:
sovereign debt problems in Europe, equity and property bubbles in places like South America and
Asia, political unrest in the Middle East, and commodity price spikes and inflationary pressures in
emerging markets. The natural disaster in Japan has caused slight supply chain disruptions to
Oregon firms but the coming reconstruction phase may bring new business. Also internationally
we have economies recovering, incomes rising, and demand for U.S. and Oregon exports are
rising. Whether the downside risks will dissipate and the recoveries take hold will influence the
direction of strength of U.S. and Oregon economic recoveries. With China now the top destination
for Oregon exports, the state of the Chinese economy has spillover effects to the Oregon economy.

State and Local Governments. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities finds that 44 states and
the District of Columbia are projecting budget shortfalls totaling $125 billion for fiscal year 2012
which generally starts this summer. Local government budget shortfalls add to this total. Oregon is
among the states facing a budget shortfall. Given that further tax increases are unlikely in Oregon,
balancing budgets will mainly be through spending cuts. In a mixed private-public economy, this
will be a drag on the economic recovery. The question is whether the building strength of the
private sector will be enough to continue the recovery through the state and local government
budget crises.

Undoing the Federal Policy Used to Combat the Financial Crisis and Recession. Bailouts, tax
cuts, monetary quantitative easing, and other fiscal packages most likely prevented a more serious
economic downturn. But the clean-up after the storm can have its own risks to the economy. Exit
strategies will have to be carefully implemented to prevent premature tightening and choking off
the recovery or acting too late to avoid an inflationary environment. All states, including Oregon,
face the same risks.

Initiatives, referendums, and referrals. Generally, the ballot box brings a number of unknowns that
could have sweeping impacts on the Oregon economy.

Demographic Forecast

Oregon’s population count on April 1, 2010 was 3,831,074. Oregon gained 409,550 persons
between the years 2000 and 2010. The population growth between 2000 and 2010 censes was
12.0 percent, down from 20.4 percent growth between 1990 and 2000 censuses. Oregon’s
rankings in terms of decennial growth rate dropped from 11th between 1990-2000 to 18th between
2000-2010. Slow population growth during the most recent decade due to double recessions
probably cost Oregon one additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. Actually,
Oregon’s decennial population growth rate during the most recent decade was the second lowest
since 1900. The slowest was during the 1980 when Oregon was hit hard by another recession. As
a result of recent economic downturn and sluggish recovery, Oregon’s population is expected to
continue a slow pace of growth in the near future. Based on the current forecast, Oregon’s
population will reach 4.28 million in the year 2020 with an annual rate of growth of 1.1 percent
between 2010 and 2020.


                                                10
Oregon’s economic condition heavily influences the state’s population growth. Its economy
determines the ability to retain local work force as well as attract job seekers from national and
international labor market. As Oregon’s total fertility rate remains below the replacement level
and deaths continue to rise due to ageing population, long-term growth comes mainly from net
in-migration. Working-age adults come to Oregon as long as we have good economic and
employment situations. During the 1980s, that included a major recession and a net loss of
population, net migration contributed to 22 percent of the population change. On the other
extreme, net migration accounted for 73 percent of the population change during the booming
economy of 1990s. This share of migration to population change declined to 56 percent in 2002
and it was further down to 34 percent in 2010. As a sign of slow to modest economic gain, the
ratio of net migration-to-population change will increase gradually and will reach 67 percent by
the end of the forecast horizon. Although economy and employment situation in Oregon look
stagnant at this time, migration situation is not expected to replicate the early 1980s pattern.
Potential Oregon out-migrants have no better place to go since other states are also in the same
boat in terms of economy and employment.

Age structure and its change affect employment, state revenue, and expenditure. Growth in many
age groups will show the effects of the baby-boom and their echo generations during the period
of 2010-2020. It will also reflect demographics impacted by the depression era birth cohort
combined with diminished migration of the working age population and elderly retirees. After a
period of slow, and even negative, growth during the 1990s and the first half of the last decade,
the elderly population (65+) has picked up a faster pace of growth and will surge as the baby-
boom generation continue to enter this age group. The average annual growth of the elderly
population will be 3.9 percent during the forecast period as the boomers continue to enter
retirement age. However, the youngest elderly (aged 65-74) will grow at an extremely fast pace
during the forecast period, averaging 4.8 percent annual rate of growth due to the direct impact
of the baby-boom generation entering retirement age. Reversing several years of shrinking
population, the elderly aged 75-84 will start a positive growth as the effect of depression era
birth-cohort will dissipate. The oldest elderly (aged 85+) will continue to grow at a moderately
but steady rate due to the combination of cohort change, continued positive net migration, and
improving longevity. However, the annual growth rate will continue to taper off as the
depression era small birth cohort transitions from the younger age group.

As the baby-boom generation matures out of oldest working-age cohort combined with slowing
net migration, the once fast-paced growth of population aged 45-64 will gradually taper off to
below zero percent rate by 2012 and will remain at slow or below zero growth phase for several
years. The young adult population (aged 18-24) will change only a little and remain virtually
unchanged for most of the years into the future. Although the slow or stagnant growth of college-
age population (age 18-24), in general, tend to ease the pressure on public spending on higher
education, college enrollment typically goes up during the time of high unemployment and
scarcity of well paying jobs when even the older people flock back to college to better position
themselves in a tough job market. The growth rate for children under the age of five will remain
below zero percent in the near future and will see positive growth only after 2013. Although the
number of children under the age of five will decline slightly in the near future, the demand for
child care services and pre-Kindergarten program will be additionally determined by the labor



                                               11
force participation of the parents. The growth in K-12 population (aged 5-17) will remain low
which will translate into slow growth in school enrollments. This school-age population has
actually declined in size in recent years and will grow in the future at well below the state
average. The 25-44 age group population has reversed several years of declining trend during the
early part of the last decade and before. The decline was mainly due to the exiting baby-boom
cohort. This age group has seen positive growth starting in the year 2004 and will increase by
1.2 percent annual average rate during the forecast horizon. Overall, elderly population over age
65 will increase rapidly whereas population groups under age 65 will experience slow growth in
the coming decade.

Revenue Forecast

The outlook for revenue growth in Oregon is threatened by the uncertainty surrounding the
nascent recovery in the regional job market. Given how fragile consumer and business
confidence have become, downside risks to the forecast have clearly intensified in recent weeks.

Through a lack of confidence, the troubles in Europe, Washington D.C., and on Wall Street may
well infect the local economy going forward. That said, all of Oregon’s core measures of
economic activity (private employment, earnings and tax collections) are still expanding--albeit
at disappointing rates. In particular, until we see private employers cutting jobs, it is difficult to
argue that Oregon’s economic expansion has ended.

Although the turmoil in financial markets is not expected to derail Oregon’s economic recovery,
it will nevertheless create additional headwinds for growth. Most notably, wealth losses suffered
in stock markets can be expected to put downward pressure on household spending, and will
result in fewer tax collections tied to realizations of capital gains.

Despite these challenges, the baseline (most likely) forecast has not been revised downward
drastically at this time. However, the risks to the outlook are clearly skewed to the downside.
There is around a one in three chance that the U.S. economy will slip back into recession, which
would certainly drag Oregon’s regional economy down with it. In such a scenario, the forecast
for tax revenues would fall drastically.

After the smoke clears, revenue growth in Oregon and other states will face considerable
downward pressure over the 10-year extended forecast horizon. As the baby boom population
cohort works less and spends less, traditional state tax instruments such as personal income taxes
and general sales taxes will become less effective, and revenue growth will fail to match the pace
seen during recent periods of economic expansion.

2011-13 General Fund Revenues

Led by personal income tax collections, general fund revenues are posting large gains entering
the 2011-13 biennium. Temporary factors will help support healthy growth in personal income
tax collections in the near term, but growth in collections will lose a steam in the second half of
the biennium. Corporate tax collections are now falling rapidly, with the boom in underlying
corporate profits having come to an end.



                                                 12
Due in roughly equal parts to losses to labor earnings and to investment forms of income, the
outlook for the 2011-13 biennium is somewhat weaker than what was predicted in the May 2011
forecast. The forecast for General Fund revenues for 2011-13 is now $13,816 million. This
represents a decrease of $62.0 million (-0.4%) from the May 2011 forecast. Excluding policy
changes and fund transfers, general fund revenues are expected to be $192.6 million (-1.4%)
lower than in May.

Table R.1
2011-13 General Fund Forecast Summary
                                                 2011 COS                May 2011 September 2011    Change from Change from
( Millions)                                       F orecast              F orecast      Forecast    Prior Forecast COS Forecast

Structural Revenues
   Personal Income Tax                            $12,193.6              $12,202.1      $12,035.1          -$167.0       -$158.4

    Corporate Income Tax                             $894.2                  $863.3       $875.5            $12.2         -$18.7

    All Other Revenues                               $944.2                  $836.0       $928.8            $92.8         -$15.4

Gross GF Revenues                                 $14,032.0              $13,901.4      $13,839.4           -$62.0       -$192.6
                        1
Administrative Actions                                -$23.1                 -$23.1        -$23.1             $0.0          $0.0

Legislative Actions                                     $0.0                    $0.0         $0.0             $0.0          $0.0

Net Available Resources                           $14,008.9              $13,878.3      $13,816.3           -$62.0       -$192.6

Confidence Intervals
67% Confidence                              +/- 9.4%                                    $1,298.8       $12.54B to $15.14B
95% Confidence                             +/- 18.8%                                    $2,597.6       $11.24B to $16.44B
1 Reflects cost of cashflow management actions, ex clusiv e of internal borrow ing.




                                                                           13
Extended General Fund Revenue Outlook

Table R.2
General Fund Revenue Forecast Summary (Millions of Dollars, Current Law)

                                  Forecast              Forecast               Forecast              Forecast               Forecast              Forecast
                                  2009-11        %       2011-13        %       2013-15        %      2015-17        %      2017-19           %   2019-21     %
Revenue Source                   Biennium Chg Biennium Chg                     Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg


Personal Income Taxes             10,467.2      3.7% 12,035.1         15.0% 13,881.0 15.3% 15,692.8 13.1% 17,353.3 10.6% 19,247.5                            10.9%

Corporate Income Taxes                827.6 20.9%           875.5      5.8%      1,131.8 29.3%          1,112.3 -1.7%         1,126.6     1.3%     1,206.7   7.1%

All Others                          1,226.9 29.3%           928.8 -24.3%           919.6 -1.0%            971.2     5.6%      1,021.9     5.2%     1,102.2   7.9%

Total General Fund                12,521.7      6.8% 13,839.4         10.5% 15,932.4 15.1% 17,776.3 11.6% 19,501.8                        9.7% 21,556.4      10.5%

Kicker Distributions                    -                     -                       -                    -                      -                   -

Total Revenue                     12,521.7 -2.2% 13,839.4             10.5% 15,932.4 15.1% 17,776.3 11.6% 19,501.8                        9.7% 21,556.4      10.5%

Other tax es include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Sev erance Tax , Western Oregon Sev erance Tax and Amusement Dev ice Tax .
Commercial Fish Licenses & Fees and Pari-mutual Receipts are included in Other Rev enues



General Fund revenues will total $15,932 million in 2013-15, an increase of 15.1% percent from
the prior period, and $206 million (1.3%) below the May forecast. In 2015-17, revenue growth
will moderate to 11.6%, followed by 12.0% growth in 2017-19 and slower rates of around 10%
to in subsequent biennia. The slowdown in long-run revenue growth is largely due to the impact
of demographic changes. Revenues in 2015-17 and beyond are expected to be smaller than in the
May forecast, largely due to the downgraded outlook for job growth. Table B.2 in Appendix
presents a more detailed look at the long-term General Fund revenue forecast.




                                                                                 14
I.       ECONOMIC FORECAST

September 2011

This edition of the National Economic Review and Forecast contains excerpts from Nigel Gault,
U.S. Economy: Current Situation: Forecast Flash, IHS Global Insight, July 2011. This
publication summarizes Global Insight’s baseline national forecast that OEA incorporates into
the Oregon economic and revenue models. OEA summarizes the Forecast Flash and is our
interpretation of this document. Any errors or misrepresentations are attributable to OEA and not
IHS Global Insight. In addition, Table N.1 provides a quick look at the annual rates. Table N.2
provides a look at the forecast change from the last forecast. Graph N.1 provides a graphic U.S.
history and forecast.

A.       National Economic Review and Forecast

Forecast Flash

A Positive Signal at Last – More Needed.

With mostly soft data signals coming in, one bright spot was the uptick in the June national ISM
manufacturing survey. The June ISM report also showed a noticeable decline in the prices index,
indicating some relieve from rising costs. The first half of the year suffered from rising
commodity costs, supply-chain disruptions from Japan’s natural disaster and severe weather
conditions domestically. The June ISM improvement is consistent with IHS Global Insight’s
view of better growth in the second half of this year, though more positive signals are needed to
make this case. (The national June employment report came out after the publication of the July
Forecast Flash. The rather dismal employment numbers are not helping to make the case for a
stronger second half.) Calendar year forecasts for GDP are 2.5 percent for 2011 and 2.6 percent
for 2012.

Second Quarter Little Different from the First. Second quarter GDP growth expected at 1.9
percent, same as the first quarter. (Advance estimate of second quarter GDP growth is 1.3
percent. Revised estimate of first quarter GDP growth is 0.4 percent– OEA.) Initial Consumer
spending will slow in the second quarter to 0.6 percent compared to 2.2 percent in the first
quarter. This slowing is caused by drops in light-vehicle sales due to the Japan natural disaster
and higher gasoline prices impacting household budgets. Other components of GDP are expected
to improve in the second quarter. Construction should rise due to better weather and defense
spending is expected to come back from an unusual drop in the first quarter.

The Second Half Remains the Big Question Mark. IHS Global Insight projects better growth
in the second half of 3.2 percent compared to the 1.9 percent growth in the first half. This
stronger second half is dependent on a number of factors: production of vehicles returns to a
more normal state, temporary acceleration of business equipment spending to take advantage of
generous depreciation allowances this year, and continued improvement on gas prices moving
down to $3.40 per gallon by the fourth quarter.




                                               15
Oil Reserves Release Helps Only Temporarily. The 60 million barrels of oil released from the
strategic reserves (30 million barrels in the United States) had a temporary impact on lowering
oil prices, but this amount of oil only represents less than one day’s global consumption. IHS
Global Insight has dropped their projection for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil from
$104 to $94 for the third quarter. Going forward the price of oil is little changed with prices
averaging $104 per barrel in 2012.

The Risk of a Self-Inflecting Wound: The Debt Ceiling. “The need to raise the debt ceiling by
the drop-dead day, August 2, remains a potentially disruptive wild card. An agreement on
substantial spending cuts appears within reach – but the stumbling block is whether Republicans
will accept some revenue increase to accompany the spending cuts. If negotiators are
deadlocked, a short-term fix raising the ceiling just for a few months would be better than rising
the consequences of hitting the ceiling.” (As of July 22, negotiations are still underway.)

QE II Has Ended; No QE III. The Federal Reserve states it has no plans to implement a QE III
program of quantitative easing. Slow growth in the economy suggests no plans to raise interest
rates in the near term. IHS Global Insight delays their assumption about a Fed interest rate hike
from March 2012 to September 2012, with the possibility that the Fed may not raise rates until
2013. (Note that since the release of the July forecast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has made a
public statement that it given the current state of the economy and expectations moving forward,
it will not raise rates for two years, or until mid-2013.)




                                               16
                                                                                                                                                             Year‐Over‐Year Percent Chnage                                                                                     Percent                                                                 Percent Change




 
                                                                                                                                                               ‐2
                                                                                                                                                                    ‐1
                                                                                                                                                                         0
                                                                                                                                                                               1
                                                                                                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                                                                                                       3
                                                                                                                                                                                              4
                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
                                                                                                                                                                                                      6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ‐4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ‐3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ‐2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ‐1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     5




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 11




              0
                          500
                                      1,000
                                               1,500
                                                             2,000
                                                                                                 2,500
                                                                                                                                                      1996Q1
     1996Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1996                                                                                        1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Graph N.1



                                                                                                                                                      1998Q1
     1998Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               1998                                                                                        1998
                                                                                                                                                      2000Q1
     2000Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2000                                                                                        2000
                                                                                                                                                      2002Q1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Unemployment Rate
     2002Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2002                                                                                        2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2005 Dollars, Chain Weighted




     2004Q1                                                                                                                                           2004Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Real GDP, Percent Change




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2004                                                                                        2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                        All Items
     2006Q1                                                                                                                                           2006Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2006                                                                                        2006
     2008Q1                                                                                                                                           2008Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008                                                                                        2008
     2010Q1                                                                                                                                           2010Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2010                                                                                        2010
                                                                                                                                                      2012Q1




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Consumer Price Index
     2012Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2012




                                                                                                                Standard and Poor's 500 Index
     2014Q1                                                                                                                                           2014Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2014                                                                                        2014
     2016Q1                                                                                                                                           2016Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2016                                                                                        2016




                                                                                                                                                                                                        Excluding Food & Energy
     2018Q1                                                                                                                                           2018Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2018                                                                                        2018
     2020Q1                                                                                                                                           2020Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2020                                                                                        2020




17
                           Percent Chnage                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Millions                                                                         Percent




              ‐4
                    ‐2
                                0
                                       2
                                              4
                                                       6
                                                                 8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   9
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2.5




                                                                                                                                                             50%
                                                                                                                                                                         75%
                                                                                                                                                                                       100%
                                                                                                                                                                                                      125%
     1996Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1996Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1996Q1
                                                                                                                                                      1996
     1998Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             1998Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1998Q1
                                                                                                                                                      1998
     2000Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             U.S. Economic History and Forecast




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2000Q1                                                                        2000Q1
                                                                                                                                                      2000
     2002Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2002Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Total
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Prime




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2002Q1


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Real Exchange Rate
     2004Q1                                                                                                                                           2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2004Q1                                                                        2004Q1
     2006Q1                                                                                                                                           2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2006Q1                                                                        2006Q1
     2008Q1                                                                                                                                           2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2008Q1                                                                        2008Q1
     2010Q1                                                                                                                                           2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     3M Treasury
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Interest Rates




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Single Family




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2010Q1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Housing Starts




     2012Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2010Q1
                                                                                                                                                      2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2012Q1                                                                        2012Q1
     2014Q1                                                                                                                                           2012




                                                                     Real Consumer Spending (Left Axis)
     2016Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2014Q1                                                                        2014Q1
                                                                                                                                                      2014
     2018Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2016Q1                                                                        2016Q1
                                                                                                                                                      2016




                                                                     Consumer Sentiment (Univ of Mich, Right Axis)
                                                                                                                     Consumer Confidence & Spending
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Multi‐Family
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     10 Yr Treasury




     2020Q1                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2018Q1                                                                        2018Q1
                                                                                                                                                      2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2020Q1                                                                        2020Q1




              0.5
                    0.6
                                0.7
                                       0.8
                                              0.9
                                                       1.0
                                                                 1.1
                                                                                                                                                      2020
     TABLE N. 1
     U.S. Forecast Summary 2009-2020 (Jul 2011 U.S. Forecast, IHS Global Insight)

                                                              Quarterly                                                                           Annual
                                                   2011:2      2011:3 2011:4           2009       2010       2011        2012       2013        2014     2015           2016       2017        2018        2019        2020

     GDP (Bil of 2005 $) Chain Weight               13,508      13,623    13,722     12,881     13,248     13,574      13,924     14,308      14,783      15,284      15,765     16,197      16,615      17,051      17,500
       % Ch                                            1.9         3.4       2.9       (2.6)       2.9        2.5         2.6        2.8         3.3         3.4         3.1        2.7         2.6         2.6         2.6

     Personal Income (Bil of $)                     13,061      13,209    13,355    12,174.9 12,541.0     13,139.9    13,581.3 14,151.3      14,971.0    15,828.0    16,723.8 17,562.8      18,403.0    19,287.0    20,226.3
        % Ch                                           3.9         4.6       4.5        (1.7)     3.0          4.8         3.4      4.2           5.8         5.7         5.7      5.0           4.8         4.8         4.9

     Nonagricultural Employment (Millions)          131.1       131.5     132.1       130.8      129.8      131.3       133.3      135.3       137.9       140.6       143.0      144.9       146.3       147.5       148.8
       % Ch                                           1.6         1.2       1.8        (4.4)      (0.7)       1.1         1.6        1.5         1.9         1.9         1.7        1.3         1.0         0.8         0.9

     Unemployment Rate                                 9.1         8.9       8.7        9.3        9.6         8.9         8.6        8.2         7.5         6.8         6.3        5.9         5.7         5.4         5.2
       % Ch                                            7.7        (6.5)     (7.8)      59.9        3.9        (7.6)       (3.8)      (4.7)       (7.8)       (9.4)       (8.3)      (5.7)       (4.0)       (4.3)       (4.5)

     Industrial Production Index (2007=100)           93.1        94.3      95.1        85.5      90.1       93.8        96.9       99.8       103.6       107.3       110.6      113.6       116.7       120.0       123.3
        % Ch                                           1.9         5.4       3.3       (11.2)      5.3        4.1         3.3        3.0         3.8         3.6         3.1        2.7         2.7         2.8         2.8




18
     Corporate Profits (Bil of $)                  1,936.1 1,880.5 1,858.6           1,316.7    1,801.1    1,903.2     1,990.5    2,231.9     2,340.6     2,321.0     2,349.4    2,356.1     2,408.8     2,494.4     2,592.2
        % Ch                                          (0.3)  (11.0)   (4.6)             (1.2)      36.8        5.7         4.6       12.1         4.9        (0.8)        1.2        0.3         2.2         3.6         3.9

     Money Supply (M2) (Bil of $)                    9,000       9,182     9,308       8,510      8,785      9,308       9,957     10,599      11,120      11,609      12,176     12,748      13,345      13,988      14,677
       % Ch                                           5.5         8.3       5.6         5.0        3.2        6.0         7.0        6.5         4.9         4.4         4.9        4.7         4.7         4.8         4.9

     Prime Rate                                       3.25        3.25      3.25         3.25      3.25       3.25        3.34       4.73        6.49        7.68        7.75       7.75        7.75         7.75        7.75
        % Ch                                          0.0         0.0       0.0        (36.1)      0.0        0.0         2.8       41.5        37.3        18.3         0.9        0.0         0.0         (0.0)       (0.0)

     Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100)             224.5       225.3     226.3       214.5      218.1      224.6       228.6      233.0       237.5       242.4       247.6      252.6       257.6       262.4       267.1
       % Ch                                           4.1         1.5       1.8        (0.3)       1.6        3.0         1.8        1.9         2.0         2.0         2.1        2.0         2.0         1.9         1.8

     Federal Budget (unified) (Bil of $, Fed FY)    (238.3)     (320.9)   (354.6)   (1,471.3) (1,275.1) (1,374.3)      (961.7)    (665.8)     (659.5)     (669.1)     (734.1)    (754.7)     (785.5)     (838.1)     (895.6)

     Current Account Balance (Bil of $)             (431.0)     (413.0)   (486.2)    (376.6)    (470.9)    (451.8)     (468.8)    (450.8)     (473.0)     (479.8)     (489.5)    (452.4)     (393.3)     (339.6)     (284.2)
        % Ch                                        (33.42)     (15.66)    92.01      (44.4)      25.1       (4.1)        3.8       (3.8)        4.9         1.4         2.0       (7.6)      (13.1)      (13.7)      (16.3)

     Population (Millions)                          313.46      314.21    314.97     307.84     310.83     313.84      316.88     319.94      323.04      326.16      329.30     332.46      335.63      338.82      342.01
        % Ch                                          1.0         1.0       1.0         0.9        1.0        1.0         1.0        1.0         1.0         1.0         1.0        1.0         1.0         0.9         0.9
     TABLE N. 2
     U.S. Forecast Change - (Current Forecast Jul 2011 vs. Last Forecast Apr 2011)

                                                         Quarterly                                                                       Annual
                                                   2011:2 2011:3 2011:4              2009      2010       2011      2012      2013      2014    2015         2016      2017      2018      2019      2020

     GDP (Bil of 2005 $) Chain Weight              13,508     13,623    13,722     12,881    13,248     13,574    13,924    14,308    14,783     15,284    15,765    16,197    16,615    17,051    17,500
       % Change From Last Forecast                   (0.3)      (0.3)     (0.6)       0.0       0.0       (0.3)     (0.7)     (0.7)     (0.7)      (0.3)     (0.1)     (0.1)     (0.1)     (0.2)     (0.4)

     Personal Income (Bil of $)                    13,061     13,209    13,355    12,174.9 12,541.0 13,139.9 13,581.3 14,151.3 14,971.0 15,828.0 16,723.8 17,562.8 18,403.0 19,287.0 20,226.3
        % Change From Last Forecast                  (0.5)      (0.6)     (0.5)        0.0     (0.0)    (0.4)    (0.8)    (1.2)    (1.1)    (0.9)    (0.7)    (0.8)    (0.9)    (1.1)    (1.3)

     Nonagricultural Employment (Millions)          131.1      131.5     132.1      130.8     129.8      131.3     133.3     135.3     137.9      140.6     143.0     144.9     146.3     147.5     148.8
       % Change From Last Forecast                   (0.0)      (0.1)     (0.1)       0.0       0.0       (0.1)     (0.3)     (0.7)     (0.7)      (0.5)     (0.2)     (0.2)     (0.2)     (0.3)     (0.4)

     Unemployment Rate                                 9.1       8.9       8.7        9.3       9.6        8.9       8.6       8.2       7.5        6.8       6.3       5.9       5.7       5.4       5.2
       % Change From Last Forecast                     2.4       2.4       2.4        0.0       0.0        1.8       3.9       5.2       5.7        4.0       1.8       1.7       2.6       3.9       5.5




19
     Industrial Production Index (2007=100)           93.1      94.3      95.1       85.5      90.1       93.8      96.9      99.8     103.6      107.3     110.6     113.6     116.7     120.0     123.3
        % Change From Last Forecast                   (1.4)     (1.4)     (1.9)       0.0      (0.0)      (1.3)     (1.6)     (1.2)     (1.0)      (0.4)     (0.1)     (0.3)     (0.3)     (0.4)     (0.4)

     Corporate Profits (Bil of $)                  1,936.1    1,880.5   1,858.6   1,316.7    1,801.1   1,903.2    1,990.5   2,231.9   2,340.6    2,321.0   2,349.4   2,356.1   2,408.8   2,494.4   2,592.2
        % Change From Last Forecast                   15.7       12.9      11.9       0.0        0.0      12.9       16.6       8.6       6.7        9.7      10.3      10.4      11.3      11.2      10.6

     Money Supply (M2) (Bil of $)                    9,000      9,182     9,308      8,510     8,785      9,308     9,957    10,599    11,120     11,609    12,176    12,748    13,345    13,988    14,677
       % Change From Last Forecast                    0.1        0.0      (0.2)       0.0       0.0       (0.2)      0.5       1.2       1.0        1.1       1.0       0.8       0.6       0.4       0.2

     Prime Rate                                       3.25       3.25      3.25       3.25      3.25       3.25      3.34      4.73       6.49      7.68      7.75      7.75      7.75      7.75      7.75
        % Change From Last Forecast                   0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0     (22.0)    (26.5)      (1.9)      0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0

     Consumer Price Index (1982-84=100)             224.5      225.3     226.3      214.5     218.1      224.6     228.6     233.0     237.5      242.4     247.6     252.6     257.6     262.4     267.1
       % Change From Last Forecast                    0.3        0.1       0.2        0.0       0.0        0.2       0.0      (0.1)     (0.4)      (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.6)     (0.6)     (0.6)

     Federal Budget (unified) (Bil of $, Fed FY)    (238.3)   (320.9)   (354.6)   (1,471.3) (1,275.1) (1,374.3)   (961.7)   (665.8)   (659.5)    (669.1)   (734.1)   (754.7)   (785.5)   (838.1)   (895.6)

     Current Account Balance (Bil of $)             (431.0)   (413.0)   (486.2)    (376.6)   (470.9)    (451.8)   (468.8)   (450.8)   (473.0)    (479.8)   (489.5)   (452.4)   (393.3)   (339.6)   (284.2)
        % Change From Last Forecast                  (19.7)    (25.1)    (18.6)      (0.5)      0.1      (18.9)    (16.1)    (20.8)    (17.7)     (17.7)    (16.0)    (17.6)    (22.2)    (26.3)    (31.8)

     Population (Millions)                          313.46     314.21    314.97    307.84    310.83     313.84    316.88    319.94    323.04     326.16    329.30    332.46    335.63    338.82    342.01
        % Change From Last Forecast                   0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0        0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0       0.0
20
B.     International Review and Outlook

This edition of the International Review and Outlook contains information written by Adrienne
Mack, Research Analyst with the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The following section was
originally published as the International Economic Update, dated August 10, 2011, and is
reprinted here in accordance with the Bank’s disclaimer and privacy policy.

Growth Stalls as Economies Adjust

Following the moderation in the first quarter of 2011, global growth is expected to continue
decelerating throughout the year. Both advanced and emerging economies are seeing economic
performance slow.

Mounting government debt is the main contributor to the diminished outlook for the advanced
economies, especially in the euro area. The emerging economies continue to fight inflation, with
high food prices producing additional price pressures. Monetary authorities have adopted
contractionary policies in an attempt to control rising inflation, and these policies have facilitated
weaker economic activity.

Evident in this recent economic slowdown is how interconnected economies have become. An
optimal strategy for promoting global growth requires the stabilization of both advanced and
emerging economies.

Uncertainty Rises with Sovereign Debt Debates

Advanced economies are suffering from high public debt levels. Austerity measures are
necessary, but the structures for new budget plans are under much debate. Market uncertainty has
heightened as the effectiveness of current and future plans are called into question. Stock
markets in the U.S. and euro area have declined substantially as investors seek safer asset options
amid falling growth potential.

Switzerland has become an attractive destination for investors. Exchange rates show investors
prefer to hold Swiss francs over the U.S. dollar and the euro. Switzerland serves as a beacon of
hope for debt-laden countries; after struggling with high sovereign debt in the 1990s, the nation
adopted strict austerity measures to promote a balanced budget, contributing to its stable
economy.

Europe Placed in the Spotlight

Sovereign debt issues in the European periphery pose the greatest risk because of the possibility
of contagion with other euro-area economies. On July 21, European leaders agreed to extend
financial relief measures: Previous loan conditions were eased, and Greece was granted an
additional bailout package. Despite this aid, the markets are still cautious. Subsequent
movements in 10-year bond-yield spreads suggest uncertainty remains due to fears of a possible
default by Spain or Italy.

These spreads show differences in bond yields when compared with the German equivalent,
which is viewed as a safe investment. A rising spread is indicative of a risky asset. Spreads for


                                                 21
Spain and Italy hit record highs. In two weeks, beginning on July 25, spreads rose 19 percent for
Spain and 32 percent for Italy. Though Spain and Italy are not at risk for immediate default,
some doubt the ability of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) to supply adequate
funds on a longer-term basis. The debt obligations for those countries in more immediate risk of
default surpass the lending capacity of the EFSF. If Italy or Spain were to default as well, the
funds would not be available to assuage the situation.

Debt Affects European Economy

The sovereign debt crisis is having a negative impact on the euro area's economic performance.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the euro area indicates both the manufacturing and
service sector are dangerously close to contraction levels. PMIs closely follow the economic
performance for the overall economy. Thus, gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to
decline in the second quarter of 2011. The downward trend of the PMIs suggests a further
decrease in GDP growth.

Germany has been a growth leader in the euro area, but the underperformance of other
economies has caused a drop in German exports. Exports are a major contributor to German
GDP growth; on average, 42 percent of Germany's exports go to the euro area. As GDP growth
slows in the euro area, so will Germany's exports. German exports fell 2.6 percent from March to
April. The deceleration of emerging economies has also affected the German export sector.

Emerging Economies Slow Amid Inflation Battles

Emerging economies continue to face inflationary pressures due to high capital inflows. Rising
food prices have added to these pressures. Changes in the consumer price index (CPI) are used to
measure inflation. The CPI tracks prices for a select bundle of goods, which is determined by the
consumption habits of an economy. The CPI composition for emerging economies is heavily
weighted in food. Thus, high food prices have a disproportionate effect on inflation in the
emerging economies. For example, food and beverages comprise 31 percent of the CPI in Brazil
and 48 percent in India, compared with 15 percent in the U.S.

Monetary authorities are vigilantly raising policy rates to combat rising inflation. Since the
beginning of 2011, Brazil has increased its policy rate five times, with the latest increase
occurring in July. China also increased rates in July, the third time this year. India raised rates in
June, its fourth increase this year.

The latest PMI data for the manufacturing sectors in Brazil and China indicate these tightening
measures have successfully slowed down their economies. China's PMI dropped to 50.7 in July.
Brazil's PMI reached contractionary levels in June and dropped even further in July to 47.9. As
these economies begin to slow, their inflation rates should fall. This will help moderate capital
inflows.

Momentum Expected to Rebound in 2012

The recent economic slowdown highlights the growing effects of globalization. Countries that
were regional growth leaders are starting to be affected by the poor performance of other
economies through the export sector. High inflation in emerging economies has prompted policy


                                                 22
contraction, stalling the main contributors of global         Table I.1
growth. However, such policy responses should be               Projected Growth Rates of Real GDP (Percent)
viewed as attempts to promote long-term global                 As of 07/11/2011                      (Average)
growth. As interest rate differentials begin to lessen,                               2010 2011 2012 2013-16
capital flows will be redirected to advanced                   United States           2.9  2.5  2.6    3.1
                                                               Canada                  3.1  2.9  2.8    2.7
economies, and this increased investment will help             Japan                   4.0 -0.9 3.5     1.3
stimulate economies whose public funds are strained.           Eurozone                1.7  1.9  1.6    1.9
The efficiency of market stabilization is contributing         Mexico                  5.4  4.7  3.6    3.9
to higher growth prospects for 2012. -- Adrienne               South America           5.9  4.5  4.9    4.7
                                                               Asia except Japan       8.4  7.0  7.1    7.1
Mack
                                                               China                  10.3 9.3   8.5    8.3
                                                               World                   4.1  3.4  4.0    4.1
Recent International Developments
                                                               Source: Global Insight, July 2011

Table I.1 shows IHS Global Insight’s country specific
economic forecasts as of July 11, 2011. In its global forecast, IHS Global Insight cites some
issues to watch to gauge future trends of the global economy. First, commodity prices now face a
number of downward pressures in the near term. After rising substantially, and quickly, in early
2011, commodity prices have fallen somewhat recently, partially driven by monetary policy
restraint in China and other key markets. The Greek sovereign debt, the end of quantitative
easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve and
the usual summer slowdowns in the Table I.2
Northern Hemisphere also contributed.          Projected Growth for Top U.S. Export Markets
Following these actions, investors have        Ranked by              Oregon       Projected Change
begun shifting their monies away from          $ Value of U.S.    Exports 2010        in Real GDP
commodities and other risky assets.            Goods Exported
Prices should remain down over the                                Rank ($ mil.) 2009 2010 2011 2012
coming months, based on the above              Canada                 3 2,420 -2.5 3.1 2.7 2.6
actions and seasonally weak demand.            Mexico                15    233 -6.1 5.5 4.3 3.9
Second, IHS Global Insight expects that        Japan                  4 1,380 -6.3 4.0 -0.6 3.1
                                               United Kingdom        16    226 -4.9 1.3 1.3 2.1
Brent crude oil will average nearly $110
                                               South Korea            5    937 0.3 6.2 4.1 4.4
per barrel in the third quarter while West
                                               Germany                8    363 -4.7 3.5 3.4 2.2
Texas      Intermediate    will    average     Taiwan                 6    670 -1.9 10.8 4.7 4.7
somewhere in the mid-$90s. (For more           N etherlands           9    339 -3.9 1.7 2.2 1.7
information      regarding     the    price    Russia                29      58 -7.8 3.6 4.5 4.5
differential between Brent crude and           France                18    177 -2.6 1.4 2.0 1.8
WTI, please see the following link.            Brazil                12    311 -0.6 7.5 4.1 4.6
Historically the price between the two         Hong Kong             13    300 -2.7 6.8 5.5 4.8
oils was minimal, however in the past          India                 22    118 9.1 8.5 7.8 8.3
year a $10-$20 gap has emerged due to          China                  1 4,046 9.2 10.3 9.1 8.8
some unique circumstances.                     Australia             14    255 1.3 2.7 2.1 4.0
http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/20         Eurozone                          -4.1 1.7 1.9 1.7
11/04/brentwti_spread_1.html)                  U.S.                              -3.5 3.0 1.8 2.5
                                               Source: Blue Chip Economic Indicators, August 2011
Table I.2 summarizes the Blue Chip                    Oregon Export Data: WISER, August 2011

Consensus forecast (August 2011) for Oregon’s major export markets. It is consistent with the
GI forecast shown in Table I.1, although, generally, more optimistic moving forward. Note that
some differences in growth rates may be attributable to the publication date. Global Insight’s
forecast is from their July publication, while the Blue Chip’s is their August publication.


                                                23
IHS Global Insight’s July 2011 global forecast discusses highlights from the world economy and
regional issues as well. Just as the U.S. economy has encountered a soft patch of growth in early
2011, the global economy has too, however a return to recession in unlikely – even if the
probability of such an event has increased. Deleveraging and tightening fiscal policies are
contributing to the developed countries’ slow recoveries. Given this, the world’s real GDP is
expected to increase 3.4 percent in 2011, somewhat slower than 2010’s 4.1 percent growth. On a
regional basis, the expected growth slowdown in the Eurozone is materializing given sub-1.0
percent growth in each of the first two quarters of 2011. Even with the European Union and
International Monetary Fund providing the necessary support to meet Greece’s financing through
2012, a sovereign debt restructuring is likely in 2013 or 2014. Greece’s debt is projected to reach
157 percent of GDP in 2012, which represents an unsustainable level given the country’s dire
economic outlook and record-high bond yields. Finally, IHS Global Insight discusses the fact
that local government/provinces debt in China has emerged as a major risk to the country’s
growth. The National Audit Office reported that local debt increased to over $1.6 trillion (10.7
trillion yuan) at the end of 2010. This figure represents about 33 percent of China’s GDP.

Oregon Exports

U.S. exports have increased quarter-over-quarter since 2009 Q1. With nine such increases in a
row, national exports in 2011 Q2 set a new record in terms of total dollar value (nominal) of U.S.
exports. Oregon exports have followed the same general pattern over the past two years;
however in mid-2010, Oregon exports declined slightly – primarily caused by a decline in high
technology exports to Asia – before resuming strong growth in the most recent quarters. Strong
gains the past three quarters have Oregon exports nearly back to pre-recession levels. State
exports declined 38.8 percent between their peak in 2008 Q3 and their recession lows in 2009
Q1. Since then, exports have increased substantially and the current levels of exports are just 7.6
percent below their historic highs. In fact, Oregon exports in the second quarter were the third
highest level of exports on record, trailing only the second and third quarters of 2008.

Exports are expected to continue to follow the global economy through the expansion, however,
as economic expectations change, exports will similarly grow either faster or slower along with
economic conditions. Besides
economic      growth      (and Graph I.1
consumer demand), exchange                                     Oregon Total Exports
                                                Total Exports (Left Axis)   Year‐over‐Year Change (Right Axis)
rates are another mechanism           6,000                                                                    45%
which will influence exports
moving forward. Should the            5,000                                                                    30%

U.S. dollar appreciate against
our major trading partners,           4,000                                                                    15%

exports will slow more,
                                          $ millions




                                      3,000                                                                    0%
however should the dollar
depreciate, exports should
                                      2,000                                                                    ‐15%
benefit and see stronger
growth.
                                                       1,000                                                                              ‐30%


Graph I.1 illustrates Oregon’s                            0                                                                               ‐45%
total exports and the Y/Y                                 Q1 1997   Q1 1999   Q1 2001   Q1 2003   Q1 2005   Q1 2007   Q1 2009   Q1 2011




                                                                    24
percent change from 1997 through 2011 Q2. For 2010, Oregon’s exports growth ranked 31st best
among all states and since 2009 Q1, when exports reached their recessionary lows across the
country, Oregon’s growth ranks 26th best. While it is true that Oregon typically experiences more
volatile movements than the US overall – during booms exports increase more than the nation
and during recessions they decrease more than the nation – the current expansion is somewhat
different given the nature of
Oregon’s exports. High dollar Table I.3
value computer and electronic       Oregon Exports by Industry
                                    ($ millions, current prices)
product     exports     typically                                                                      y/y % Share out
                                                                                    2010 Q2 2011 Q2
compose around 40-45 percent                                                                          change  of Total
of the state’s total and thus       Total All Industries                             4,473.2 4,824.1    7.8%   100.0%

movements within the high           Computer And Electronic Products                 2,110.6 1,663.6 -21.2%     34.5%
                                    Agricultural Products                              465.7   776.9 66.8%      16.1%
tech sector swing the statewide     Chemicals                                          370.8   487.7 31.5%      10.1%
totals. As shown in Table I.3       Machinery, Except Electrical                       364.3   434.1 19.2%       9.0%
and Graph I.2, these exports        Transportation Equipment                           209.0   219.2    4.9%     4.5%
                                    Primary Metal Manufacturing                        149.9   176.1 17.5%       3.7%
have fallen 21.2 percent in the     Waste And Scrap                                     84.6   166.2 96.5%       3.4%
past year. This large decline is    Wood Products                                      123.6   142.2 15.1%       2.9%
primarily driven by decreased       Food And Kindred Products                          121.0   135.4 11.9%       2.8%
                                    Paper                                               66.7   121.8 82.5%       2.5%
exports by Intel to its facilities  Miscellaneous Manufactured Commodities              63.4    71.0 12.0%       1.5%
in China (and Malaysia), and        Fabricated Metal Products, Nesoi                    73.6    78.1    6.0%     1.6%
is more a function of within-       Electrical Equipment, Appliances, And Component     83.6    71.5 -14.4%      1.5%
                                    Plastics And Rubber Products                        41.3    49.4 19.7%       1.0%
firm movements than an              Forestry Products, Nesoi                             2.9    56.5 1864.7%     1.2%
overall industry decline. (For      Source: WISER, August 2011
more information please see
this August 12, 2011 article in The Oregonian.
http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2011/08/oregon_exports_to_china_slide.html)

Table I.3 shows Oregon’s dollar value of exports and year-over-year growth rates for 2011 Q2.
Graph I.2 illustrates quarterly exports by major industry since 1997. For Table I.3, these are the
top fifteen industries by export
volume (in value). Y/Y growth Graph I.2
is positive for thirteen of the top                 Oregon Exports by Major Industry ($ millions)
                                       $2,400
fifteen export industries. As                          Computer And Electronic Products
                                       $2,200
mentioned above, computer and                          Agricultural Products
                                                       Chemicals
                                       $2,000
electronic      products      have                     Machinery, Except Electrical
                                                       Transportation Equipment
                                       $1,800
decreased over the past year.
                                       $1,600
Exports in the industry are down
                                       $1,400
to the top three partner countries
                                       $1,200
in the past year – China, Costa
                                       $1,000
Rica and Malaysia - which
                                        $800
account for nearly 64 percent of
                                        $600
the industry total. High tech
                                        $400
exports to China fell 55.7
                                        $200
percent over the year in the
                                           $0
second quarter, which more than
                                            Q1 1997   Q1 1999     Q1 2001     Q1 2003   Q1 2005 Q1 2007 Q1 2009 Q1 2011
accounts for the total industry
decline. Industry totals fell
nearly $447 million, while industry exports to China declined over $474 million during the same


                                                         25
time period. Overall, this industry is Oregon’s largest and most important export sector, driven
by the state’s cluster of high technology firms and accounted for 44 percent of all exports in
2010.

Agricultural Products (benefiting from higher commodity prices), Chemicals (likewise, plus
increases in Potash exports),
Paper and Waste and Scrap all Graph I.3
increased over 30 percent in the           Oregon Exports (Year‐over‐Year Change)
second quarter. Machinery                     Total Exports Total excluding Computer and Electronic Products
                                     50%
exports, long a Top 4 industry
                                     40%
in Oregon, have increased
steadily     throughout      the     30%

expansion and have grown over        20%

76 percent since 2009 Q1 and         10%
are nearing their pre-recession       0%
peak levels. These increases are    ‐10%
indicative of the broad-based
                                    ‐20%
gains seen in many sectors
                                    ‐30%
during the recovery.
                                            ‐40%

While high technology products        ‐50%

dominate Oregon exports, it is           Q1 1998     Q1 2000     Q1 2002   Q1 2004   Q1 2006   Q1 2008   Q1 2010

useful to examine exports
excluding the industry to gauge the overall health of Oregon’s exports. This allows one to
examine how widespread the increases (or decreases) are among all industries. Graph I.3
illustrates growth both for total exports and total minus computer and electronic products. While
high tech exports are holding down Table I.4
the total export figures, non-computer        Oregon Exports to Major Trading Partners
and electronic products have increased        ($ millions, current prices)
over 30 percent, year-over-years.                                                                  y/y %    Share out
                                                                                 2010 Q2 2011 Q2
                                                                                                    change    of Total
                                                   Total All Countries            4,473.2 4,824.1     7.8%    100.0%
Table I.4 charts exports of Oregon
                                        China                      1,087.3 737.2 -32.2% 15.3%
products to major destinations. Out of  Canada                       675.9 737.2 9.1%   15.3%
the top fifteen export markets, four    Malaysia                     645.5 585.9 -9.2%  12.1%
countries saw decreases in trade in     Japan                        328.5 484.4 47.5%  10.0%
2011 Q1 year-over-year. Those           Korea, Republic Of           226.4 342.6 51.3%   7.1%
                                        Taiwan                       144.2 188.1 30.4%   3.9%
countries are China, Malaysia, Costa    Brazil                        71.1 191.3 169.0%  4.0%
Rica and the Netherlands. Exports to    Germany                       91.4 126.0 37.8%   2.6%
China were strong in 2010; however      Costa Rica                   156.4 115.7 -26.0%  2.4%
the fluctuations quarter to quarter     Singapore                     88.7 115.2 29.9%   2.4%
                                        Philippines                  106.0 109.2 3.0%    2.3%
recently have been large (see Graph
                                        Australia                     62.2  83.2 33.8%   1.7%
I.4 below). While exports to Japan      United Kingdom                54.5  70.6 29.5%   1.5%
have increased nearly 48 percent over   Mexico                        55.5  60.8 9.4%    1.3%
the past year, the recent rise is even  Netherlands                   84.0  53.3 -36.6%  1.1%
                                        Source: WISER, August 2011
stronger. Over the past three quarters,
exports to Japan have grown over 66 percent – primarily driven by agricultural products,
however increases in computer and electronic products, chemicals and wood products also are
contributing to the gains.


                                                          26
Graph I.4 shows the quarterly Graph I.4
export trend for Oregon’s top                      Oregon Exports by Country ($ millions)
five markets since 1997.                     China         Canada       Malaysia         Japan      Korea, Republic Of
                                    $1,200
Exports to all top five
destinations increased in 2010
                                    $1,000
compared to 2009; however
developments in the most recent      $800
quarters vary across countries.
Goods bound for Canada, Japan        $600
and Korea increased in the most
recent quarter, while exports to     $400
China and Malaysia fell. After
reaching an all-time high in the     $200

third quarter, exports to
Malaysia cooled off somewhat            $0
                                         Q1 1997   Q1 1999    Q1 2001 Q1 2003    Q1 2005   Q1 2007 Q1 2009    Q1 2011
in the past six months. Given
the fact that 96 percent of Oregon exports to Malaysia in 2010 were Computer and Electronic
Products, fluctuations within this industry drive total exports to the country. A welcomed
development is the rebound in exports to Canada in 2010 and into the first half of 2011. As
Oregon’s largest export market for much of the past two decades, the Great Recession took a
heavy toll of Canadian bound exports as the dominant industries have traditionally been
transportation equipment and wood products, two industries hit especially hard.




                                                         27
28
C.     Western Region

This section of the September forecast examines the economies of seven western states and their
relative performance to the U.S. overall. Gauging the health of local economies is important for
business planning purposes and looking at a wide range of data points is useful. Below, you will
find tables analyzing how Oregon’s economy is fairing compared to the following western states:
Arizona, California, Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Washington.

Employment

The slowdown in economic activity in the first half of 2011 has likewise resulted in slower job
growth in recent months. Even with this slowing, jobs continue to expand on a monthly basis
across the nation and the western states (except Idaho in 2011 Q2). On a year-over-year basis, all
western states have seen job gains except Nevada. At the national level, total nonfarm
employment increased 0.8 percent year-over-year which marks the third consecutive positive
value. Table W.1 details employment by major sector for each of the western states and their
respective year-over-year changes.
 Table W.1
                                                        Employment by Sector (2011 Q2)
                                                  Arizona California        Idaho Nevada Oregon      Utah Washington United States
     Total Nonfarm                                2,393.4 14,056.4          606.5 1,117.6 1,625.0 1,201.2    2,810.7     131,024.7
          Y/Y Percent Change                           0.2       1.0           0.6   -0.2     1.4      1.6       0.9           0.8
     Natural Resources and Mining                    11.0      27.2            3.4   12.6     6.8    10.9        6.0         780.0
          Y/Y Percent Change                           0.0       0.7          -1.9    4.4     1.1      4.5       0.0          12.0
     Construction                                   111.1     567.4          29.6    54.0    69.1    64.6      138.8       5,526.3
          Y/Y Percent Change                          -0.5       0.8          -5.3  -10.3     2.0     -0.7      -1.6          -0.2
     Manufacturing                                  150.0  1,254.7           54.0    35.9   168.5   115.1      263.4      11,711.3
          Y/Y Percent Change                           1.0       0.9           1.8   -5.7     2.6      3.4       2.1           1.6
     Trade, Transportation and Utilities            473.4  2,646.8          122.1   204.8   313.7   233.8      520.4      24,895.3
          Y/Y Percent Change                           0.9       1.0           0.7   -2.4     1.9      1.9       0.4           1.3
     Information                                     36.3     452.9            9.3   12.5    32.8    29.9      103.9       2,684.0
          Y/Y Percent Change                          -0.9       7.0          -2.8    0.3     2.1      2.5       1.3          -1.0
     Financial Activities                           163.0     756.6          29.6    48.6    93.4    66.9      137.4       7,614.7
          Y/Y Percent Change                           0.5      -0.3           2.9   -7.2     0.5     -1.3       2.2          -0.3
     Professional and Business Services             335.1  2,127.2           72.1   140.6   185.5   158.8      348.0      17,141.7
          Y/Y Percent Change                          -2.0       3.0          -1.5    4.0     2.3      4.2       7.2           3.0
     Leisure and Hospitality Services               257.9  1,526.3           60.8   317.3   167.6   112.1      270.0      13,194.3
          Y/Y Percent Change                           1.8       2.2           5.1    2.7     3.4      1.2       1.2           1.5
     Other Services                                  86.5     482.5          21.3    34.4    57.3    35.0      103.4       5,445.0
          Y/Y Percent Change                          -2.8      -0.7           0.8    1.9    -0.6      4.3      -1.4           1.9
     Government                                     410.4  2,385.6          118.2   152.1   295.8   216.2      538.2      22,109.0
          Y/Y Percent Change                          -2.7      -3.0          -1.2   -3.2    -2.2     -0.8      -2.7          -2.9
     Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State employment in 000s, U.S. employment in millions




Oregon’s strong job gains over the past year have the state ranked thirteenth best in the country
in year-over-year percentage change for the month of June. Among western states, Oregon’s
growth only trails Utah’s. Within employment, it is interesting to note the composition of growth
across the states. In particular for Oregon, the state’s growth within goods producing sectors is
outpacing our neighboring states. Oregon’s construction growth is best compared to the nation
and western states. Oregon’s trade, transportation and utilities growth is tied with Utah for the
fastest, while Oregon’s manufacturing growth is second fastest. Given that these are the
industries that were hardest hit during the recession, it is good news to see relatively strong
growth today.


                                                                          29
While all western Graph W.1
states have seen             0%
heavy job losses,               2008Q1                      2009Q1         2010Q1               2011Q1

their       relative        ‐2%

performance has
                            ‐4%



                          Percent Job Loss from 2008 Q1
varied to some
degree. Graph W.1
                            ‐6%
and Table W.2
compare job losses
                            ‐8%
across the states.
                                         U.S. (2008 Q1)
Different    state’s       ‐10%          Arizona (2007 Q3)
employment                               California (2007 Q3)
reached its peak at        ‐12%          Idaho (2007 Q4)
different      time                      Nevada (2007 Q2)
periods based on                         Oregon (2008 Q1)
                           ‐14%
                                         Utah (2007 Q4)
the          unique
                                         Washington (2008 Q1)
economies in each          ‐16%
state. Graph W.1
illustrates the cumulative Table W.2
percentage of job losses in                              Peak       Trough % Decline from % Increase from
each state since the first                           Employment Employment Peak to Trough Trough to Current
quarter of 2008. Each state’s      Arizona             2007 Q3     2010 Q1    -11.70%          1.11%
                                   California          2007 Q3     2010 Q3     -8.79%          1.39%
respective employment peak         Idaho               2007 Q4     2010 Q3     -8.44%          0.88%
is noted in parenthesis in the     Nevada              2007 Q2     2010 Q4    -14.26%          0.61%
graph’s legend, and also in        Oregon              2008 Q1     2009 Q4     -8.41%          2.03%
column two in Table W.2.           Utah                2007 Q4     2010 Q1     -7.00%          2.30%
                                   Washington          2008 Q1     2010 Q1     -6.80%          1.43%
Relative to other western          United States       2008 Q1     2010 Q1     -6.23%          1.32%
states, Oregon’s job losses
have been less severe than
Arizona, California, and Nevada; however Idaho, Utah, Washington and the U.S. have seen
lower levels of job loss. Now that each state has registered positive employment gains, at least
for one recent quarter, Oregon’s gains have outpaced both the national average and all other
western states except Utah.

Economic Coincident Index

One very useful state level economic                      Table W.3
indicator is the State Coincident                                         Economic Coincident Index for 2011 Q2

Index, produced by the Federal                                                         Q/Q Percent Y/Y Percent 5 Year Percent
                                                                           Index Value Change (AR)   Change       Change
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Each
                                                                Arizona         176.58       1.3%         0.5%        -11.4%
month the bank compiles and indexes                           California        150.62       2.1%         2.6%         -1.0%
data for each state that combines                                 Idaho         188.35       2.1%         0.9%        -11.1%
nonfarm     payroll     employment,                             Nevada          176.80       0.1%        -1.0%        -24.0%
                                                                Oregon          188.14       5.9%         4.2%         -2.5%
average     hours      worked      in
                                                                   Utah         183.96       3.5%         2.5%         -0.4%
manufacturing, the unemployment                            Washington           148.01       1.5%         1.6%         -2.1%
rate, and real wage and salary                            United States         152.48       3.0%         2.2%         -1.5%
disbursements. As a coincident index,                     Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Index = 100 in July 1992




                                                                 30
the data is designed to report current economic conditions on a monthly basis, and is not a
leading or a lagging indicator.

On a year-over-year basis, Nevada continues to be the worst performing western state, a result of
continued job losses and high unemployment rate. Oregon’s index, after growing moderately
through 2010, has turned strongly positive in the past six months. Oregon’s 4.2 percent growth in
the past year betters all other western states and also the U.S. average. Oregon’s quarter-over-
quarter growth ranks fifth best nationally, Oregon’s year-over-year increase ranks fourth best
nationally and Oregon’s five year percentage change ranks twenty-sixth best nationally.

Housing Price Index

Many of the western states have         Table W.4
been hit hard by the housing boom                           Housing Price Index (2011 Q1)
and subsequent bust. Table W.4                             Index Q/Q Percent Y/Y Percent Percent Change
shows the Federal Housing Finance                          Value Change (AR)   Change      Since Peak
Agency’s home price index for each              Arizona    167.73     -10.8%      -12.2%          -47.5%
western state. Graph W.2 shows the            California   154.79     -10.5%       -7.7%          -45.2%
                                                  Idaho    178.46     -21.5%      -15.7%          -32.4%
FHFA Housing Price Index for each               Nevada     120.75     -16.0%       -8.6%          -55.9%
of the western states since 2000.               Oregon     247.12     -13.2%      -10.3%          -27.0%
While the data is typically indexed                Utah    239.12     -15.1%       -7.1%          -25.5%
to 1991, for graphing purposes, the        Washington      217.32     -12.6%       -9.4%          -22.3%
data is indexed 2000 = 100 to             United States    181.02      -9.6%       -5.5%          -19.3%
illustrate the home price changes        Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA)
over the past decade.

Prices     in    Arizona,    Graph W.2
Nevada and California all
                                        FHFA Home Price Index (Purchase Only)
at least doubled between
                                      Arizona              Idaho                Oregon        Washington
2000 and 2006. By 2007                California           Nevada               Utah          U.S.
and 2008 prices in             240
Oregon and Washington          220
had increased over 80
                               200
percent, while Idaho and
Nevada        experienced      180
gains over 60 percent.         160
Since that time, prices
                               140
have declined across all
                               120
western states by at least
20 percent.                    100

                                80
Home prices continue to          2000Q1     2002Q1     2004Q1     2006Q1      2008Q1     2010Q1
decline across all western
states in both the most
recent months and over the past year. The states that experienced the largest run-up in prices
during the bubble years have likewise seen the deepest declines over the past few years. Arizona,
California and Nevada have all seen price declines of over 40 percent since each state’s home
price peak.


                                                   31
Housing Permits

With the large home price declines across the nation in recent     Table W.5
years and an oversupply of houses on the market, there has          Housing Permits Issued (2011Q2 YTD)
been very little new construction relative to historical levels.                                Y/Y Percent
One measure used to gauge new home construction is                                    Permits   Change
                                                                           Arizona        6,005      -16.4%
housing permits issued, shown in Table W.5. It appears that              California      22,964        8.4%
each passing year brings worse news for new home                             Idaho        1,833      -34.7%
construction. 2009 was worse than 2008 which was worse                     Nevada         3,727       -7.3%
than 2007. After a mixed bag in 2010, expectations were for                Oregon         3,589       -9.1%
                                                                              Utah        4,126      -15.3%
at least some semblance of stability in 2011; however the first       Washington         10,106       -3.6%
six months’ figures for permits indicate no such stability as        United States      295,831       -5.8%
the numbers are substantially lower than early 2010 figures.        Source: U.S. Census Bureau


All western states and the nation have seen a decline in permits issued, except for California.
Across locales, the sub-industry experiencing any growth is the multi-family market as single
family homes continue to remain at depressed levels in terms of both sales and new construction.
While multi-family permits have increased, these gains have not been large enough to offset the
declines in single family homes in most locations. California is the exception among western
states as their multi-family permits have increased 46 percent through the first six months, even
though single family permits in the state have declined 13 percent. In Oregon, multi-family
permits have increased 36 percent and single family permits have declined 20 percent.

Exports

The global recession decimated international trade throughout       Table W.6
late 2008 and early 2009; however exports have rebounded                    Total Exports (2011 Q2)
sharply since around mid-2009. As show in Table W.6, on a                             Exports Y/Y Percent
                                                                                      ($ mill)  Change
year-over-year basis most states and the nation overall are
                                                                           Arizona       $4,463      15.0%
experiencing sizable increases in trade, with only Oregon                California     $39,915      12.5%
failing to reach double digit growth in the second quarter.                  Idaho       $1,513      12.4%
Oregon’s figures, as detailed in the International Section, are            Nevada        $1,894      27.8%
attributable to high technology exports to Asia declining in               Oregon        $4,824       7.8%
                                                                              Utah       $4,246      39.0%
recent months, even though all other Oregon exports are               Washington        $15,725      31.2%
increasing over 30 percent on a year-over-year basis.                United States     $370,571      17.6%
                                                                     Source: WiserTrade, August 2011
Even with the sizable increases in recent months, the nation
and western states’ exports remain slightly below their peak levels achieved during the summer
of 2008.

Tax Revenue

While the recession pummeled tax revenues for all states during the 2007 through early 2010
period, the past four quarters (2010 Q2 – 2011 Q1) have brought good news to most state coffers
in the form of positive revenue growth. Table W.7 shows tax revenue by major revenue source
for 2011 Q1, along with year-over-year percent changes, for the western states. Every western
state has seen state and local tax revenues increase over the past year. While in previous quarters,
growth has originated primarily through business taxes (gross receipts, income, etc) due to the


                                                 32
very high profitability of businesses in 2010, the current growth is a result of increased sales tax
collections and personal income tax collections. While many business (typically the largest)
remain highly profitable, this profitability has not increased further, making year ago
comparisons more difficult and expectations are for business tax receipts to decline in the
coming year. On the personal or consumer side of the ledger, these tax collections are increasing
and are expected to continue to do so throughout the expansion. As more and more individuals
are able to find jobs, and wages increase, consumers spend more money on purchases and their
income tax liabilities increase. The data below reflect this pattern.

Table W.7
                                       State and Local Tax Revenue (2011 Q1)
                                        Arizona       California      Idaho   Nevada       Oregon        Utah Washington
Total Taxes                           2,523,894     27,129,164     745,728 1,577,577    1,748,617 1,202,004 4,382,821
    Y/Y Percent Change                    14.1%            5.5%     22.7%       4.1%        16.2%       8.8%       5.9%
Property tax                            193,653        729,904            X   86,213         5,316          X   804,924
    Y/Y Percent Change                     -7.3%        -10.3%            X   -19.4%       -31.9%           X      5.8%
General sales and gross receipts      1,449,434      8,233,845     306,407   689,941             X  469,547 2,480,495
    Y/Y Percent Change                    18.9%           -3.1%     14.3%       6.8%             X    15.0%        6.0%
Motor fuel sales taxes                  199,140      1,377,075      54,749    69,779      108,121     87,247    283,322
    Y/Y Percent Change                     -2.1%         82.5%      10.1%       3.9%       -16.2%       7.6%       2.5%
Alcoholic beverages                       18,405         76,526      1,743    10,323         3,582    11,197     81,554
    Y/Y Percent Change                      6.4%           3.7%      -5.6%      3.5%         9.7%       1.6%      17.1%
Public utilities                            5,351      158,834          556     4,592        4,602      5,111   117,765
    Y/Y Percent Change                   -11.0%            8.2%     79.9%     -18.9%       -45.3%    -27.2%      -12.0%
Insurance                               109,493        126,165       8,983    56,710       16,925     21,124     47,064
    Y/Y Percent Change                     -0.3%           7.4%       2.2%      0.1%       -20.8%      -4.3%       7.9%
Tobacco products                          78,771       258,498      11,113    26,402       59,669     26,252    110,187
    Y/Y Percent Change                     -5.8%         18.8%        3.9%      2.0%        23.3%     72.8%       23.4%
Amusements                                  3,045              X          X  278,727            17          X          0
    Y/Y Percent Change                 2139.0%                 X          X     0.9%       -64.6%           X          X
Motor vehicles                            44,024       777,239      38,131    40,326      141,279     48,703    118,575
    Y/Y Percent Change                   -10.2%            4.4%       8.5%     -9.6%        10.8%    -35.6%        4.4%
Corporations in general                     2,364        13,229         531   18,741         7,689      2,149      7,588
    Y/Y Percent Change                   -68.1%         -10.8%        1.7%     14.3%      106.4%    115.8%        12.9%
Occupation and business licenses         28,293      1,016,274      20,106   174,594      132,900     12,088     58,775
    Y/Y Percent Change                     -0.6%          -8.4%     10.1%      10.9%        72.9%       5.7%      -2.4%
Individual income taxes                 257,491     12,045,229     226,078          X   1,152,216   449,112            X
    Y/Y Percent Change                    56.7%          12.1%      27.2%           X       20.6%     14.6%            X
Corporation net income taxes             83,560      2,063,265      37,056          X      73,111    27,362            X
    Y/Y Percent Change                   -14.6%           -7.8%    262.2%           X       12.9%    -15.1%            X
Source: U.S. Census Bureau ($ 000s)



As shown in the employment table at the beginning of this section (Table W.1), government
employment in each western state has declined in the past year, with further decreases expected
over the next year. This is a direct result of how governments budget, which makes the public
sector late comers to recessions. With the ARRA federal monies coming to an end, and states
beginning new fiscal years (and/or biennium), the recession’s impact is just now being fully felt
in many states’ budgets. While increasing tax revenues will alleviate some of the program
reductions this year, these gains are not enough to offset the loss of federal monies and depleted
reserve funds.




                                                            33
34
D.          Oregon Economic Review and Forecast

Summary of Recent Trends

Statewide Trends

After a very strong start to 2011, the second quarter job growth came in at a very slow pace.
Preliminary estimates place the second quarter growth at 0.7 percent. At least this is the third
consecutive quarter of positive job growth, the longest continuous stretch since the second
quarter of 2007. On a year-over-year (Y/Y) basis, job growth is up 1.4 percent.

While the total estimated job growth for the second quarter is disappointing, the private sector
has been improving. After a rocky start in the first quarter of 2010, the private sector has added
jobs every quarter. More sectors had job gains relative to job losses. Notable job increases are
reported in manufacturing, retail trade, health services, and leisure and hospitality. Some of the
sectors with relatively higher job losses are wood products, food processing, transportation,
warehousing, and utilities, educational services, and other services. Budget shortfalls have
caught up with the public sector, with declines in all three government levels, notable local
government and in particular local education.

The “headwinds” facing the U.S. economy did not appear to be present in the first quarter in
Oregon, but the second quarter is feeling the effects. Higher gasoline and other commodity
prices are squeezing household budgets. The slowing impacts around the country have come to
Oregon, but the private sector is still producing more jobs, albeit at a relatively slow pace. The
real story of the slow growth in the second quarter is the government sector. Comprising around
18 percent of total employment in Oregon, job losses in this sector will have a damping impact
on the economy moving forward.

The most recent Blue Chip Job Figure O.1
Growth rankings place Oregon                                                            Nonfarm Job Growth by State
13th in the nation for Y/Y job                                                            July 2011 over July 2010
growth. Between July 2010 and                                                           (Ranked by Percent Change)
July 2011, jobs increased by
25,800, or 1.62 percent. Last Oregon:                                     13th
June Oregon ranked 21st. The
relative performance of the fifty
states is shown in Figure O.1.

North Dakota retains the 1st
ranked position with job growth
of 5.39 percent, a ranking it also
held a year ago. California had
job gains ranking at 15th.
Washington’s job gains have
moved the state from a rank of                  Bottom 10              Fourth 10            Middle 10               Second 10               Top 10
   th                    th                      Source: Blue Chip Job Growth Update, W.P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University
46 to a ranking of 16 in the
nation. Idaho’s job gains was
0.79 percent, ranking 29th among the 50 states.


                                                                            35
Industry Trends

Right now the economy is growing at a frustratingly slow pace and employment gains are not
strong enough to bring down the unemployment rate quickly. As of today there are two main
drags on the recovery: the delayed improvement in the housing market and the public sector
pullback. The housing market is not a new issue and has been and is expected to continue to be a
negative factor on the recovery, or at least not a strong positive. Once the existing overhang of
inventories, including some of the shadow inventory and foreclosures, are whittled down further,
then the rebound in new construction can take full force and drive economic growth. Reasonable
estimates of when this may occur fall in the 2014 – 2016 timeframe.

The public sector pullback is a relatively new drag on the economy. Initially, largely driven by
the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the public sector was an economic driver
with increased spending
on infrastructure projects,                          Where's My Recovery?
tax cuts and financial                               (Monthly Employment Changes)
                               3,500
block grants to the states                             Typical Expansion     Past Year
                               3,000
to shore up their budgets.
Now that the vast              2,500
majority of these federal
monies have been spent         2,000

and no further federal         1,500
assistance is on the
horizon, state and local       1,000

governments are cutting          500
their budgets, which leads
to employment losses.              0
The graph to the right is       ‐500
designed to illustrate how
these two main economic       ‐1,000
drags are impacting job                Total Nonfarm  Private ex Housing Housing Related Public
growth in Oregon.

It is interesting to note that the private sector excluding housing is currently expanding at a
slightly above average pace, relative to the two previous economic expansions in Oregon. That
means 75 percent of all industries, or employment, is growing more quickly today than in past
recoveries. Unfortunately the impact from the two main drags is holding total nonfarm
employment from growing at a similar pace. Typically, housing related industries add 575 jobs
per month and the public sector adds 350 jobs per month. In the past year, these industries have
added only 50 jobs per month and cut jobs at a 675 per month pace, respectively. It is true that
the temporary Census workers are included in some of the public sector cuts; however, once
these jobs are accounted for the public sector has cut employment by 475 per month, on average.

In total, between the two drags, instead of adding a combined 925 jobs per month, these
industries have actually been cutting 425 jobs per month (ex-Census), a net swing of over 1,300
jobs every single month. If these industries were able to increase employment at their typical
pace, total nonfarm employment in Oregon would be growing extremely well by historical
standards and the unemployment rate would be declining more quickly.


                                               36
Methodology Notes: The typical expansion is defined here for these purposes as the average of the 1992-1999 and
2004-2007 periods. Housing related industries include all construction employment, building material and garden
supply stores, mortgage loan brokers and real estate employees. The past year is the July 2010 to July 2011 time
period.

Table O.1
Total Nonfarm Employment, 2nd quarter 2011
(Employment in thousands, Annualized Percent Change)
                                                         Preliminary       Forecast       Forecast Error    Y/Y
                                                          Estimate                                         Change
                                                        level    % ch      level % ch     level    %        % ch

Total Nonfarm                                          1,625.0    0.7    1,633.1   2.6    (8.1) (0.5)         1.4
 Total Private                                         1,329.2    1.6    1,335.5   3.4    (6.2) (0.5)         2.2
  Natural Resources and Mining                             6.8   (2.0)       6.9   4.4    (0.1) (1.2)         1.1
  Construction                                            69.1    3.6       68.9   2.9     0.2   0.3          2.0
  Manufacturing                                          168.5    3.8      164.8 (5.0)     3.7   2.3          2.6
    Durable Goods                                        118.3    7.2      117.3   3.5     1.0   0.9          2.7
      Wood Product                                        18.8   (6.9)      19.2   0.6    (0.4) (2.0)        (7.9)
      Metals and Machinery                                32.9    7.3       33.1   9.2    (0.1) (0.4)         6.0
      Computer and Electronic Product                     36.4    6.2       35.8 (0.3)     0.6   1.8          4.4
      Transportation Equipment                            10.5    7.2       10.5   5.9     0.0   0.4          2.2
      Other Durable Goods                                 19.6   25.8       18.7   2.9     0.9   4.6          5.8
    Nondurable Goods                                      50.2   (3.7)      47.5 (22.6)    2.7   5.7          2.5
      Food                                                26.2   (6.9)      23.5 (41.1)    2.8 11.9           9.9
      Other Nondurable Goods                              24.0   (0.1)      24.1   3.0    (0.1) (0.3)        (4.5)
  Trade, Transportation & Utilities                      313.7    2.2      314.4   3.2    (0.7) (0.2)         1.9
    Retail Trade                                         189.0    4.2      188.4   3.4     0.6   0.3          3.4
    Wholesale Trade                                       72.2    0.6       72.8   3.7    (0.6) (0.8)        (1.1)
    Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities               52.5   (2.7)      53.2   2.3    (0.7) (1.4)         0.8
  Information                                             32.8   (0.0)      33.7 10.8     (0.8) (2.5)         2.1
  Financial Activities                                    93.4    1.0       93.6   1.4    (0.1) (0.1)         0.5
  Professional & Business Services                       185.5   (2.2)     191.1   9.0    (5.6) (2.9)         2.3
  Educational & Health Services                          234.4    2.5      234.6   3.3    (0.3) (0.1)         2.9
    Educational Services                                  31.7   (3.6)      32.0   0.1    (0.3) (1.0)         0.9
    Health Services                                      202.7    3.5      202.6   3.8     0.1   0.0          3.2
  Leisure and Hospitality                                167.6    4.4      168.8   7.3    (1.2) (0.7)         3.4
  Other Services                                          57.3   (7.3)      58.7   1.8    (1.4) (2.5)        (0.6)
Government                                               295.8   (3.2)     297.6 (1.1)    (1.8) (0.6)        (2.2)
  Federal                                                 27.9   (8.0)      28.3 (2.1)    (0.4) (1.4)       (14.9)
  State                                                   80.5   (0.7)      80.3 (2.0)     0.1   0.1          1.1
    State Education                                       31.1    3.6       30.9   0.7     0.2   0.7          5.6
  Local                                                  187.5   (3.5)     189.0 (0.6)    (1.5) (0.8)        (1.5)
    Local Education                                       98.4   (4.7)      98.1 (6.1)     0.3   0.3         (2.8)



Table O.1 shows a comparison of preliminary estimates for second quarter Oregon employment
growth compared to the May 2011 forecast. Table O.1 also provides forecast errors and Y/Y
growth. While percent change in the preliminary estimate shows the most recent development in
the employment front, Y/Y growth indicates what has happened over a year’s time. Unless


                                                          37
noted otherwise, the employment figures are seasonally adjusted, and all percentage rates
discussed below reflect annualized rates of change for second quarter 2011. When the
preliminary estimate is lower than OEA’s forecast, forecast error is shown as negative. Positive
forecast error then means that the preliminary estimate came in higher than OEA’s forecast.
The preliminary estimate for second quarter job growth was less than the forecast, with an error
of 0.5 percent. The slower job growth figure follows the U.S. job picture with lackluster growth
in the second quarter. This is a bit disappointing following the robust growth in Oregon of 4.9
percent in the first quarter.

The private sector has fared better than the public sector through this recovery period, adding
5,160 jobs for an increase of 1.6 percent. Manufacturing was up 3.8 percent while private
nonmanufacturing was up 1.2 percent. The government sector lost 2,410 jobs for a decline of 3.2
percent and a Y/Y decline of 2.2 percent.

Within manufacturing, durable goods employment increased a strong 7.2 percent, adding 2,050
jobs. Wood products was the only sector in this category to see a decline. With housing still not
coming back, this sector lost jobs at 6.9 percent. Other durables, which include electrical
equipment, appliance, and furniture products, increased a healthy 25.8 percent, adding 1,090
jobs. Metals and machinery had a job gain of 7.3 percent. Computer and electronic products
gained 540 jobs for an increase of 6.2 percent. Transportation equipment sector posted a gain of
7.2 percent. Durable goods manufacturing has been a leading growth sector for the past two
quarters. Increased Oregon exports are part of the story for this strength.

Food processing, a highly seasonal sector, decreased jobs by 6.9 percent. Even with this decline,
this sector still has more jobs now than at the start of the recession, adding 2,740 jobs since the
first quarter of 2008. Other nondurable goods manufacturing, this includes paper and allied
products, declined slightly at the rate of 0.1 percent.

In the private nonmanufacturing sector, construction increased jobs by 3.6 percent. Its Y/Y
growth is now at 2.0 percent, a rate not seen since the third quarter of 2007. Construction
employment is still down almost 36,000 jobs or 34.4 percent since the recent high employment
in the first quarter of 2007.

Even though recent news has shown a slowdown in consumer spending, the retail trade jobs were
up 4.2 percent. The Y/Y growth for this sector is up 3.4 percent. Wholesale trade jobs rose
slightly by 0.6 percent. Transportation, warehousing, and utilities declined by 2.7 percent.

Financial services added jobs at a rate of 1.0 percent for a second consecutive quarter.
Professional and business services showed a surprise drop in jobs of 2.2 percent. This decline
follows a string of job gains going back to the fourth quarter of 2009. Information jobs, which
include publishers of software, added jobs at a rate of 1.0 percent. Leisure and hospitality
increased jobs by 4.4 percent is now up by 3.4 percent in Y/Y growth.

Private education service is a volatile sector with wide swings in job changes. This quarter
shows up as a 3.6 percent decline with Y/Y growth of 0.9 percent. Health services continue to
be one of the stronger sectors with job growth of 3.5 percent.




                                                38
Other services that include personal, repair, and maintenance decreased by 7.3 percent. Possibly
the higher commodity prices (e.g., oil and thus gasoline, food…) squeezed households budgets
impacting sales in this sector.

While the private sector is struggling through this recovery with mild job growth, the
government sector is cutting jobs. Federal government employment is down 8.0 percent. As tax
revenues have not grown to replace temporary federal stimulus money, state and local
governments are cutting services. State government is down only 0.7 percent, mainly because
state education is up 3.6 percent. Public colleges are countercyclical to the recession as more
students enroll and pay tuition. Local government jobs are down by 3.5 percent, and unlike state
education, local education is more dependent on tax revenues and jobs are down 4.7 percent.

Regional Trends

Total nonfarm employment in Oregon increased 1.3 percent from the second quarter of 2010 to
the second quarter of 2011. In recent months, government job losses have weighed down
improvements in the private sector. Private employment gains stood at 2.2 percent over the
second quarter of 2010, while the public sector declined by the same percentage. Census
employment in 2010 continues to affect over-the-year trends in government, as those jobs were
temporary.

Oregon’s overall employment trend turned positive in the fourth quarter of 2010, which showed
a slight increase over the year after nine consecutive quarters with a year-over-year decline.
Many rural regions of Oregon endured longer declines. Generally, regional employment losses
were most severe in the second and third quarters of 2009. Losses moderated in 2010 and growth
resumed in the first quarter of 2011. By the second quarter of 2011, every region except the
Portland area had dipped back into negative territory.

Regional unemployment rates (not seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter ranged from a low
of 8.5 percent in the Portland area to a high of 12.0 percent in Southern Oregon. In every region,
unemployment rates were significantly lower than last year. Statewide, the unadjusted June 2011
unemployment rate was 9.7 percent, nearly matching the national rate of 9.6 percent.

Employment Gains Slow in the Portland Area:
Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties

Employment losses in the Portland area began in the fourth quarter of 2008, and accelerated until
the third quarter of 2009 before beginning to moderate. In the third quarter of 2010, employment
growth resumed and job gains followed through the first quarter of 2011. Nonfarm job counts in
the second quarter of 2011 slowed but growth continued at a rate of 1.0 percent over the year.

By county, second quarter employment growth was fastest in Washington (+1.3%), while
Multnomah and Yamhill tied (+0.5%). After slight growth in the first quarter of 2011,
Clackamas employment dropped (-1.4%). Columbia County has yet to see positive growth, and
dropped 2.3 percent between the second quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2011.

Of 11 broad industry sectors, seven showed employment gains in the Portland area from June
2010 to June 2011. Manufacturing and education and health services grew the fastest, and

                                               39
together added over 5,000 jobs. Professional and business services also gained a significant
number of jobs (+1,750), as did trade, transportation, and utilities (+670). Construction grew 1.0
percent over the year, driven by growth in Multnomah and Washington counties.

Government and other services had lower job counts in June 2011 than one year earlier,
declining 4.0 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively.

The unemployment rate in the Portland region was the lowest in the state, at 8.5 percent in the
second quarter of 2011. The rate dropped 1.4 percentage points from the prior year.

Job Growth Stalls in Willamette Valley:
Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, and Polk counties

The Willamette Valley posted its first over-the-year jobs loss at the same time as the state, in the
third quarter of 2008. Over the next two years, the rate of local job loss essentially mirrored the
statewide average. As the state resumed growth in the final quarter of 2010, regional job gains
lagged behind. The area experienced negative over-the-year job growth in every quarter since
the recession began, except for the slight gain in the first quarter of 2011 (+0.1%). In the second
quarter, declines returned (-0.5%).

Benton was the only county in the region with positive employment gains, adding about 900 jobs
between the second quarter of 2010 and the second quarter of 2011. Lane County followed the
overall regional trend, dropping 0.1 percent. Linn County also saw jobs decline 0.6 percent over
the year, with job losses continuing for the 11th consecutive quarter (-1.6%).

Seven of 11 broad industries lost employment in the region between June 2010 and June 2011.
Government had the highest job losses, most from local government
(-1,630). Retail trade and construction saw the next greatest losses, at 360 and 180 jobs,
respectively.

Three broad sectors showed growth over the year. Education and health services added the most
jobs regionally (+320), predominately in the Salem metro area. Leisure and hospitality added
240 jobs on net, driven entirely by growth in Benton and Lane counties. Although Linn County
added 270 manufacturing jobs over the year, employment in this industry dropped within the
whole region (-0.2%).

In the second quarter of 2011, the Willamette Valley’s unemployment rate was 9.5 percent. The
rate dropped 1.3 percentage points over the year.

Employment Gains Limited along the Coast:
Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, and Tillamook counties

Employment declines in Oregon’s coastal counties began in the second half of 2007. Over-the-
year losses were fairly mild through 2008 but became severe in 2009. Losses moderated in the
first half of 2010, and the third quarter of 2010 brought the coast’s first over-the-year job gains.
Growth accelerated in the first quarter of 2011, but declines resumed in the second quarter (-
0.4%).


                                                40
Every county on the coast posted employment gains by the final quarter of 2010, which
continued through the first quarter of 2011. In the second quarter of 2011, over-the year job
losses resumed in Lincoln (-1.9%), Curry (-0.7%), and Tillamook (-0.2%), while Clatsop and
Coos remained positive. Employment growth in Coos County slowed to 0.2 percent over the
second quarter of 2010, while Clatsop saw double this growth rate.

Less than half of the region’s 11 broad industrial sectors gained jobs over the year. Leisure and
hospitality added the most at 370, followed by 180 jobs in professional and business services.
Educational and health services saw mild growth among all counties, increasing employment by
140. Other services added a few jobs in each of the coastal counties, totaling up to 90 over the
year.

Trade, transportation, and utilities; manufacturing; and construction dropped around 120 to 190
jobs each, while government dropped 670 jobs over the past year. Mining and logging remained
flat.

Since the second quarter of 2010, the coastal region’s unemployment rate dropped 1.0
percentage point to 9.8 percent.

Southern Oregon Counties Stuck in Neutral:
Douglas, Jackson, and Josephine counties

Over-the-year employment declines in Southern Oregon began in mid-2007. The region endured
the longest slide in the state, with 14 consecutive quarters of decline. Losses peaked at nearly 8
percent in the second quarter of 2009. The area resumed over-the-year job growth in the first
quarter of 2011 (+0.7%), but these gains were erased in the second quarter of 2011, when
employment matched the level in the second quarter of 2010.

Between second quarters 2010 and second quarter 2011, Josephine County lost 0.4 percent of
employment. Jackson County has been the main driver of job growth in the region, adding about
the same number of jobs in each of the last two quarters (0.7%). After 18 consecutive quarters of
job loss, declines continued in Douglas County (-1.3%).

Five of area’s 11 broad sectors showed growth over the year ending in June 2011. Professional
and business services was the only industry to see gains in every county, adding a total of 360
jobs. Due to large gains in retail trade in Jackson County, trade, transportation and utilities also
had a strong showing (+520). Leisure and hospitality tallied an increase of 110 jobs over the
year, while educational and health services and other services racked up about 40 jobs each.

The region continues to struggle in sectors hard hit by the recent recession. Construction dropped
3.5 percent between June 2010 and June 2011, with the170 job loss concentrated in Jackson (-
130) and Josephine (-50). Government dropped 560 jobs over the year, most at the federal level.

Southern Oregon’s 12.0 percent unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2011 was the
highest regional unemployment rate in the state. The rate has dropped 1.3 percentage points over
the past year.




                                                41
Mixed Job Growth in Central Oregon:
Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Hood River, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Sherman, Wasco, and
Wheeler counties

Central Oregon’s employment began to dive in 2008. Declines accelerated and reached a low
point in mid-2009, when employment was down nearly 9.0 percent from mid-2008. Losses in
Deschutes County accounted for the majority of the Central Oregon decline. Over-the-year job
losses eased in 2010, but resumed in the second quarter of 2011 (-1.2%).

Of the 10 Central Oregon counties, four had an over-the-year gain in the second quarter of 2011.
The gain was smallest in Lake (+0.2%) and Wasco (+0.8%), and larger in Sherman (+4.1%) and
Gilliam (+4.7%). Among the four counties with declining employment, losses were mild in
Hood River (-0.1%) and Klamath (-0.7%). Deschutes had moderate losses (-1.4%), along with
Wheeler (-2.3%). Two other Central Oregon counties remained significantly below the
employment level in second quarter 2010: Crook (-5.9%) and Jefferson (-4.0%).

Eight of 11 broad industries in Central Oregon dropped jobs over the year. Employment in
mining and logging dropped 470 from June 2010 to June 2011. The local industry’s 11.5 percent
decline was the worst of any region in the state. Government dropped 580 jobs over the year,
with losses in nearly all Central Oregon counties.

Private educational and health services was the clear winner across the region, adding 625 jobs.
Deschutes produced over half of these jobs, contributing 380. Retail trade also posted gains,
growing 1.5 percent over the year.

At 11.5 percent in the second quarter of 2011, Central Oregon’s unemployment rate was the
second highest regional rate in the state. The rate dropped 1.4 percentage points from the second
quarter of 2010.

Eastern Oregon Growth Backtracks:
Baker, Grant, Harney, Malheur, Morrow, Umatilla, Union, and Wallowa counties

Job loss in Eastern Oregon during the recession was relatively moderate, but prolonged. The area
saw its first year-over-year losses in early 2008. Losses peaked above 3 percent in the first half
of 2009, when statewide losses were running above 5 percent. Losses were relatively mild in
2010, with slow growth resuming in the final quarter and into the first quarter of 2011. This trend
was reversed by the second quarter of 2011, when the region saw an over-the-year decline of 1.0
percent.

Umatilla was the only county that saw over-the-year gains in the second quarter (+0.7%). Losses
were mild in Morrow (-0.5%), and moderate in Union (-1.3%), Malheur (-1.4%), and Grant (-
2.0%). Declines were more significant in the three remaining counties: Wallowa (-5.1%), Harney
(-5.1%), and Baker (-3.9%).

Of 11 broad industries in Eastern Oregon, four gained jobs over the year. County-level trends
were mixed, but across the region the largest gains were in educational and health services (+120
jobs).



                                                42
Construction in the region remained flat, matching the year-ago level, while manufacturing and
trade, transportation, and utilities each dropped 20 jobs. Government dropped 580 jobs across the
region.

Eastern Oregon’s unemployment rate in the second quarter of 2011 was 9.5 percent. The area
had the state’s smallest unemployment rate decrease over the year, dropping 0.8 percentage point
since the second quarter of 2010.

Information on employment in Oregon’s 15 workforce regions and 36 counties is available at
www.QualityInfo.org. For more information, contact Katharine Williams, Economist,
Katharine.S.Williams@state.or.us, 503-947-1274.

Oregon Index of Leading Indicators

                                    Oregon Index of Leading Indicators
                               (Six‐Month Annualized Percent Change, through June 2011)
   30.0%                                                                                                                             10.0%



   20.0%                                                                                                                             6.7%



   10.0%                                                                                                                             3.3%



    0.0%                                                                                                                             0.0%



  ‐10.0%                                                                                                                             ‐3.3%



  ‐20.0%                                                                                                                             ‐6.7%



  ‐30.0%                                                                                                                             ‐10.0%
          1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
                         Leading Index (Left)                  Total Nonfarm (Right)                   Diffusion Index <50


In June 2011, the six month percentage change in the Oregon Index of Leading Indicators 1 was
1.3 percent, following a revised 5.2 percent change the prior month. On a month-over-month
basis, five of the eleven indicators improved in June from their May levels, however on a six
month basis (which the overall Index is calculated based on six month changes) seven of the
eleven indicators are indicating growth. While the Index level has declined in recent months, the
six month growth rate remains positive, albeit at a lower rate.

     1
         The OILI applies the Conference Board’s methodology for the U.S. National Leading Index to Oregon‐specific components.  The eleven 
components incorporated in the OILI include: Semiconductor book‐to‐bill ratio,  Oregon housing permits, Institute for Supply Management’s 
purchasing managers index, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, Oregon withholding, new Oregon incorporations, Oregonian 
help‐wanted index, Portland International Airport air freight tonnage, Oregon trade‐weighted dollar index, Industrial Production Index, and 
initial Oregon unemployment claims. 


                                                                     43
While a number of the indicators do fluctuate up and down on            Individual Indicators
a monthly basis, over the past two years they have broadly
                                                                  Sustained Improvement
fallen into four categories. The first category is for continued, Continued, Choppy Growth
sustained improvements which indicate future employment Slowing or Slight Decline
growth. Included in this category are Industrial Production, No Improvement
Oregon Dollar Index and Oregon Withholding. The second
category is for mostly sustained improvements with some OILI (OEA)
larger deviations around this trend. The only indicator in this Industrial Production
category is New Initial Unemployment Claims. Overall, claims Oregon Dollar Index
have fallen 38 percent since their peak in early 2009; however Withholding
                                                                  Initial Unemployment Claims
the improvement has been piecemeal with only 16 out of the
                                                                  Air Freight Tonnage
past 27 months moving in the right direction. The third Book-To-Bill Ratio
category is for indicators which showed sizable gains initially, Consumer Sentiment
however these indicators have now leveled off or declined Purchasing Mangers Index
slightly in recent months. Included in this category are Air Help Wanted Ads
Freight, Consumer Sentiment, Purchasing Managers Index and Housing Permits
Book-To-Bill ratio. Finally, the fourth category includes New Incorporations
indicators that have not shown any real improvement over the
past two years and these indicators continue to remain at low
levels. Include in this category are Help Wanted Ads, New Incorporations and Housing Permits.

The fact that the Index has slowed considerably in recent months does not necessarily bode well
for strong employment growth in Oregon in the near future. The slowdown in the Index can be
traced primarily to slightly slower growth in Industrial Production and then the indicators,
particularly Air Freight, in the third category above. In turn, the slowdown in the job growth the
State has seen recently is projected to continue through the end of year in our forecast.
Unfortunately, nothing in the Index or its individual components runs counter to this view.

Short-Term Outlook

Overview

We got through the soft patch in 2010 only to hit the “headwinds” of 2011. The first half growth
of real GDP in 2011 is only 0.8 percent. Personal income growth in June was only 0.1 percent
and consumer spending fell 0.2 percent, the first decline since September 2009. The ISM
Manufacturing Index fell to 50.9, slightly above its expansionary measure of 50.0 and the fourth
monthly decline in the past 5 months. All of this bodes poorly for a second half rebound for the
U.S. economy.

Some of the headwinds in the first half of this year may not be with us in the second half. The
Japan natural disaster should not be squeezing supply chains as the year progresses. The
European debt situation is still unclear with worries arising with Italy and Spain. High
commodity prices are starting to retreat which should help out household budgets.

One piece of good news for the U.S. economy was the July employment report. Unemployment
came down a notch to 9.1 percent and jobs increased by 117,000. But this report brings to
forefront another headwind that has not gotten the attention it deserves. While the private sector


                                               44
added 154,000 jobs in July, the government sector shed 37,000 jobs. The Minnesota state
government shutdown is likely responsible for about 30,000 jobs in this number and is
temporary. Still, if we take out the entire Minnesota job losses for July, job losses still total over
518,000 since the summer of 2009, a decline of 2.3 percent. The bulk of these job losses are at
the state and local levels. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities notes that the budget cuts
go beyond the layoffs with 44 states and the District of Columbia engaged in cost saving
measures from furlough days, lower worker benefits, cancelling of contracts with vendors,
reducing payments to businesses and nonprofits, and tax increases. All of these measures to some
degree slow down near term economic activity.

Oregon is similar impacted by the need to balance budgets. State and local governments received
federal stimulus funds during the recession and used budget reserves to avoid deeper cuts during
the recession. Now that these funds are no longer available and tax revenues have not recovered
to meet expenditures, budget tightening is leading to worker layoffs and other spending cuts.
Since the summer of 2009, the June 2011 total government employment in Oregon is down 2.2
percent, or around 6,600 less jobs. Although we do not believe this drop in jobs is enough to stop
the present recovery, with other “headwinds” impacting the state, the public sector pull back is
still an additional dampening impact on the economy. For a thorough look at the Oregon public
sector employment picture, see our blog at
http://oregoneconomicanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/07/20/more-on-public-sector-employment/
and associated listings.

Although the second quarter of 2011 reported weak but positive job growth, we are not
forecasting a recession for the Oregon economy. Risks of a downturn are heightened and we will
be watching indicators for any further signs of weakening. OEA (Office of Economic Analysis)
forecasts an increase of 0.5 percent in the third quarter of 2011 for total employment and 1.8
percent in the fourth quarter. Job gains continue to improve moving to nearly 2.0 percent in
2012. For the year average in 2011, total employment is projected to increase 1.7 percent and
rise to 1.95 percent in 2012.

Table O.2 compares OEA’s forecast to other published forecasts. OEA’s forecast for
employment follows the trends from the national forecasting firm IHS Global Insight and the
local forecasting group. While all forecasters see improvements in jobs for 2012, IHS Global
Insight has a more subdued increase while the local forecast group has a more robust outlook.




                                                 45
Table O.2
Oregon Total Nonfarm Employment and Personal Income Growth


                                                                  Employment            Personal Income
Forecaster                           Date of Forecast      2011      2012      2013   2011   2012    2013
IHS Global Insight                       July 2011          1.8       1.9       1.9    4.8    3.7     4.6
Wells Fargo & Co.                        July 2011         1.8        2.3      N/A    4.0     4.2    N/A
John Mitchell                            July 2011         1.7       N/A       N/A    4.9    N/A     N/A
Conerly Consulting                       July 2011         1.9        3.3      N/A    4.4     4.6    N/A
Portland General Electric                July 2011         2.5        2.8      N/A    5.0     5.8    N/A
OEA                                    August 2011         1.7       1.9       2.3    4.4    4.6     4.8
Consensus*                               July 2011         2.1        2.8      N/A    4.7     4.8    N/A
*Consensus forecast from Western Blue Chip forecast

Personal income growth improves in 2012 for OEA and the local forecasting group. IHS Global
insight has personal income growth less in 2012. We believe IHS Global Insight is taking into
account the temporary cut in social security taxes which raises 2011 personal income and thus
lowers the growth in 2012. OEA also take this into account but we believe underlying personal
income will be stronger than the view taken by IHS Global Insight. Thus, our 4.8 percent growth
in 2012 would have higher if not for the pull back given the temporary boost in growth rates for
2011.




                                                      46
Table O.3
Oregon Forecast Summary
                                                             Quarterly                                                  Annual
                                        2011:1     2011:2      2011:3      2011:4       2012:1       2009    2010     2011       2012       2013       2014

                                                         Personal Income ($ billions)

Nominal Personal Income                   146.5      147.8       148.9         150.7      152.6     138.5    142.2    148.5     155.3      162.7      172.1
% change                                    7.7        3.5         3.0           5.1        4.9      (0.6)     2.7      4.4       4.6        4.8        5.8
Real Personal Income (base year=2005)     130.1      130.1       130.7         131.8      132.9     126.7    128.0    130.7     134.5      138.5      143.8
% change                                    3.6        0.2         1.7           3.5        3.3      (0.8)     1.0      2.1       2.9        3.0        3.8
Nominal Wages and Salaries                 73.0       73.5        74.1          75.2       76.2      70.2     71.3     74.0      77.8       82.0       86.3
% change                                    5.2        2.9         3.1           5.7        5.9      (5.2)     1.5      3.7       5.3        5.4        5.3
                                                                 Other Indicators

Per Capita Income ($1,000)                 38.0       38.3        38.5          38.9       39.3      36.3     37.0     38.4      39.8       41.3       43.2
% change                                    7.1        2.8         2.1           4.3        4.2      (1.4)     2.1      3.7       3.7        3.8        4.6
Average Wage rate ($1,000)                 44.4       44.5        44.9          45.4       45.8      43.0     44.0     44.8      46.3       47.7       49.1
% change                                    0.3        0.7         4.2           3.9        3.4       0.9      2.4      1.9       3.4        3.0        2.8
Population (Millions)                      3.86       3.86         3.87         3.88       3.88       3.82    3.84     3.87       3.90       3.94       3.98
% change                                   0.6        0.6          1.0          0.8        0.7        0.8     0.6      0.7        0.8        1.0        1.1
Housing Starts (Thousands)                  8.0        8.2          7.6          7.3        7.4       7.6      7.6      7.8        7.9      10.3       13.8
% change                                   22.6       10.3        (25.4)       (16.3)       5.6     (40.5)     0.6      2.1        0.6      30.6       34.6
Unemployment Rate                          10.2        9.4          9.3          9.2        9.0      11.1     10.8      9.5        8.7        7.5        6.6
Point Change                               (0.4)      (0.8)        (0.1)        (0.1)      (0.2)      4.6     (0.3)    (1.3)      (0.8)      (1.2)      (0.9)
                                                              Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm                           1,622.3    1,625.0      1,627.2    1,634.6      1,644.6    1,612.9 1,599.8 1,627.3     1,659.0    1,696.5    1,737.0
% change                                    4.9        0.7          0.5        1.8          2.5       (6.2)   (0.8)    1.7         1.9        2.3        2.4
 Private Nonfarm                        1,324.0    1,329.2      1,336.2    1,345.0      1,355.0    1,313.4 1,300.3 1,333.6     1,369.0    1,404.9    1,443.2
 % change                                   5.9        1.6          2.1        2.6          3.0       (7.6)   (1.0)    2.6         2.7        2.6        2.7
  Construction                             68.5       69.1        69.3          69.3       69.5      74.1     67.7     69.0      69.7       71.9       79.0
  % change                                  4.5        3.6         1.1           0.3        0.8     (21.3)    (8.6)     1.9       0.9        3.2        9.9
  Manufacturing                           166.9      168.5       166.7         167.3      168.2     167.2    163.8    167.4     170.6      175.9      179.4
  % change                                  5.0        3.8        (4.3)          1.6        2.0     (14.3)    (2.0)     2.2       1.9        3.1        2.0
    Durable Manufacturing                 116.2      118.3       118.9         119.4      120.2     117.9    114.8    118.2     122.5      127.6      130.7
    % change                                4.9        7.2         2.3           1.7        2.5     (17.4)    (2.7)     3.0       3.6        4.1        2.4
      Wood Product Manufacturing           19.2       18.8        19.0          19.2       19.5      21.0     19.9     19.0      20.0       21.5       23.1
      % change                             (3.2)      (6.9)        3.0           4.5        6.6     (21.5)    (4.9)    (4.5)      5.1        7.8        7.3
      High Tech Manufacturing              35.9       36.4        36.3          36.4       36.7      35.4     35.0     36.2      37.4       38.9       38.8
      % change                              8.0        6.2        (1.0)          0.5        4.1      (8.8)    (1.3)     3.6       3.3        3.9       (0.2)
      Transportation Equipment             10.4       10.5        10.6          10.4       10.2      10.2     10.2     10.5      10.4       11.0       11.9
      % change                              5.5        7.2         4.0          (7.6)      (7.8)    (32.3)    (0.1)     2.8      (1.1)       6.5        7.9
    Nondurable Manufacturing               50.7       50.2         47.7         47.9       48.0      49.3     49.0     49.1      48.1       48.4       48.8
    % change                                5.3       (3.7)       (18.4)         1.4        0.7      (5.8)    (0.5)     0.2      (2.2)       0.6        0.8
 Private nonmanufacturing               1,157.1    1,160.7      1,169.5    1,177.6      1,186.9    1,146.2 1,136.5 1,166.2     1,198.4    1,228.9    1,263.7
  % change                                  6.1        1.2          3.1        2.8          3.2       (6.5)   (0.8)    2.6         2.8        2.5        2.8
      Retail Trade                        187.1      189.0       189.8         190.1      190.4     183.4    183.4    189.0     191.1      193.0      195.1
      % change                              3.4        4.2         1.6           0.7        0.6      (6.8)    (0.0)     3.0       1.1        1.0        1.1
      Wholesale Trade                      72.1       72.2        73.1          74.0       74.8      75.3     72.7     72.9      75.8       77.8       79.8
      % change                              0.2        0.6         5.0           5.0        4.2      (6.5)    (3.5)     0.3       4.0        2.6        2.6
  Information                              32.8       32.8        33.1          33.5       33.9      33.1     32.2     33.1      34.0       34.5       34.4
   % change                                 5.4       (0.0)        3.6           4.3        5.8      (7.1)    (2.6)     2.7       2.9        1.3       (0.1)
  Professional and Business Services      186.6      185.5       187.3         189.0      191.4     180.1    181.3    187.1     193.4      200.8      213.0
   % change                                 9.3       (2.2)        3.8           3.8        5.2      (8.2)     0.7      3.2       3.4        3.9        6.1
  Health Services                         200.9      202.7       204.5         206.3      208.0     192.9    197.0    203.6     210.6      216.7      222.8
   % change                                 5.3        3.5         3.6           3.6        3.3       1.9      2.1      3.4       3.4        2.9        2.8
  Leisure and Hospitality                 165.8      167.6       168.9         170.3      171.8     162.9    161.8    168.2     173.7      176.7      178.2
   % change                                11.3        4.4         3.1           3.3        3.5      (5.7)    (0.7)     4.0       3.3        1.7        0.9
 Government                               298.2      295.8       291.0         289.6      289.6     299.5    299.5    293.7     290.0      291.6      293.9
  % change                                  0.6       (3.2)       (6.3)         (1.9)      (0.1)      0.5     (0.0)    (1.9)     (1.3)       0.6        0.8



                                                                          47
Goods Producing Sectors

 [References to specific businesses and organizations are from public news sources and from
compiled news items published in Around the State, Workforce Analysis Section, Oregon
Employment Department.]

The wood products industry is currently struggling, with only one job growth quarter out of the
past 20 quarters (5 years). The Random Lengths Composite Price (Random Lengths
Publications, June 2011) for lumber is $262 per thousand feet in June compared to $259 per
thousand feet in May. Prices seem to stabilizing but are down almost 14 percent from the start of
the year. Some of the price stabilization is related to an increase in softwood log exports. China
by far is the largest importer of US softwood logs, importing 130,147 million board feet in April
2011, a 322 percent year over year increase. These logs to China constitute 58 percent of all U.S.
softwood log exports. The more lucrative export market is causing some supply problems for
Oregon wood mills. Stimson Lumber Company reports the supply chain problem will reduce its
workforce by 45 to 50 near Forest Grove and 30 to 35 at its Tillamook mill. Other layoff news
involves 200 workers with Roseburg Forest Products at plants in Riddle, Dillard, and Coquille.
On the positive side, Hampton Affiliates will reopen the Warrenton mill to employ 100 workers.

This industry is projected to lose 4.5 percent of workers in 2011, and then add workers at 5.1
percent in 2012 and 7.8 percent in 2013. Although these seem like high growth rates in 2012 and
2013, employment is still 33.3 percent lower than jobs levels in 2006.

The computer and electronic product sector is slowing down from a blistering pace set in 2010.
The semiconductor equipment book-to-bill ratio was 0.94. This is the lowest measure in the past
four months, indicating that orders are growing slower than shipments. This bit of slowing fits
with the soft patch hitting the U.S. economy in the first half of this year. Semiconductor
equipment sales are slated to slow this year to growth of 12.1 percent. This is still relatively good
sales growth given the 148 percent growth in 2010. Projections for 2012 by the SEMI
(Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International) have a slight decrease of 1.2 percent.
Overall, sales are projected to stay at high levels through 2012. Hiring in this sector will likely be
dominated over time by the Intel expansions. Other news is mixed on the job front. SoloPower
will go ahead with a new facility in north Portland rather than Wilsonville, initially hiring 170
people with possible plans to reach 600 workers in five years. Datalogic in Eugene will move
production to Vietnam and lay off 125 workers over the next six months. ON Semiconductor
plans to add 30 workers and 25 contractors at its chip factory in Gresham. Flir Systems Inc. laid
off 40 workers at its Wilsonville offices. The computer and electronic product sector will add
jobs on an annual average basis in 2011 at the rate of 3.6 percent. Job growth continues through
2012 with growth rates of 3.3 percent and picks up to 3.9 percent in 2013.

The transportation equipment sector has been especially hard hit through this recession. RV
manufactures have either closed or operating at very low levels. Navistar International will lay
off 450 workers at its Monaco RV plant in Coburg. Not all is dire in this industry. Daimler
Trucks North America will hire 155 people at the end of the year to its Portland plant. Job
growth projections are 2.8 percent in 2011, -1.1 percent in 2012, and 6.5 percent in 2013. These
job growths are from very low levels, leaving employment in 2013 at 39.7 percent below 2006
job levels.



                                                 48
The metals and machinery sector had an exceptionally strong first half of 2011. Job gains are
projected at 6.3 percent for 2011. Job gains continue at a relatively slower pace with growth of
4.2 percent in 2012 and 2.5 percent in 2013.

Other durables sector has shown some job growth in the most recent quarters. This sector
includes makers of glass, concrete, cement, small electrical appliances, medical equipment, and
other small miscellaneous products. This sector will add jobs at a rate of 4.6 percent in 2011, 4.5
percent in 2012, and 2.5 percent in 2013.

Food processing is a very volatile job sector, but has generally been on the upswing even through
the recession. Truitt Brothers will move some operations out of Salem impacting eight full-time
and 250 seasonal workers. Turtle Island Foods is building a process plant in Hood River with
initial hiring of 60 workers next year. The food processing sector is expected to increase jobs by
4.3 percent in 2011. We believe that this is especially strong and related to difficulty in seasonal
factors in the first half of this year. Consequently, we are pulling back job growth in 2012 with a
decline of 5.1 percent. Job growth will be positive again with 0.9 percent growth in 2013.

Other nondurables, which include paper and allied products, will lose 3.7 percent jobs in 2011,
then, basically remain flat the next two years with gains of 0.9 percent jobs in 2012 and 0.3
percent jobs in 2013.

Although construction jobs were up 4.0 percent in the first half of the year, the second half will
not be as robust. Part of the reason for this is the building of the Intel D1X plant in Hillsboro.
Jobs ramped up the first half of this year and will stay up likely through 2012. But additional
workers will be a much slower pace going forward compared to the initial build up. Residential
building permits are down 15.4 percent for year-to-date June 2011 compared to the same period
last year. Single family units are even further down for the same period at 30.0 percent. Some of
this drop may be attributed to the wet spring this year, but even allowing for this, the numbers
are rather bleak. With the housing market still a ways to go to begin a recovery, the construction
outlook remains subdued. In the Portland area, Grubb and Ellis report that office and industry
markets were uneventful in the second quarter of this year, stabilizing after some improvements
in the second half of 2010. Jobs in this industry will grow 1.9 percent in 2011 but weaker growth
in 2012 at 0.9 percent. Improvements in residential and commercial real estate should help to
raise job growth to 3.2 percent in 2013.

Service Producing Sectors

Trade, transportation, and utilities sector is projected to increase jobs at a rate of 2.1 percent in
2011, with improving growth of 2.2 percent in 2012 and 2.0 percent in 2013. Retail is generally
adding jobs with some turnover. Wal-Mart will expand in southeast Portland adding 85 workers.
Zupans is opening in Lake Oswego with an estimated 100 people. Home Depot will open early
next year in Grants Pass employing 160 workers. Musician’s Friend Inc. is closing its Medford
headquarters and cutting 160 jobs. Borders is closing stores throughout the state including
Beaverton, Gresham, Tigard, Corvallis, Eugene, Klamath Falls, Roseburg, and Salem. Retail
jobs are expected to increase 3.0 percent in 2011. Jobs will still grow in 2012 at 1.1 percent and
1.0 percent in 2013. Wholesale jobs are expected to slightly increase at 0.3 percent in 2011, and
then add jobs at a rate of 4.0 percent in 2012 and 2.6 percent in 2013.



                                                 49
The information sector, which includes traditional publishers such as newspapers and publishers
of software, had a strong first quarter but a very slight drop in jobs in the second quarter.
Tripwire sold to a private equity firm and laid off 50 employees. The Oregonian laid off 38
employees. Symantec software firm in Springfield plans to add 50 to 65 workers. The outlook
for this sector is growth of 2.7 percent in 2011, 2.9 percent in 2012, and 1.3 percent in 2013.

The financial sector will take some time to recover as the residential and commercial markets are
slow to recover. Recent news in the insurance segment of this sector was not encouraging.
StanCorp Financial Group in Portland will eliminate 130 positions. Nationwide Insurance in
Portland laid off 90 employees. The financial sector is projected to gain jobs at the rate of 1.1
percent in 2011, with stronger growth of 2.7 percent in 2012, and growth of 3.5 percent in 2013.

Although declining by over 2 percent in the second quarter, professional and business services
increased over 9 percent in the first quarter. This sector is expected to rebound in the second half
of the year for a yearly average job growth of 3.2 percent for 2011. Steady growth will continue
with 3.4 percent in 2012 and 3.9 percent in 2013.

Education and health services have only lost jobs during one quarter during the recession, the
first quarter of 2009. Relatively slow job growth ensued during 2010. Job growth has picked up
in 2011. This sector is projected to have job growth of 3.2 percent in 2011, 3.2 percent in 2012,
and 2.6 percent in 2013.

Leisure and hospitality had very strong first and second quarters, not characteristic of this sector.
This will boost up the yearly average but not likely to continue at the same pace. News articles
are filled with small restaurants opening around the state. Job growth is estimated to be 4.0
percent in 2011, 3.3 percent in 2012, and 1.7 percent in 2013.

The government sector will decline by 1.9 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012, before
adding jobs at 0.6 percent in 2013. All levels of government are facing budget reductions. The
federal budget is under pressure from Congress to lower expenditures. There is no mood on
Capitol Hill for further stimulus funds to state and local governments. Local governments are
under great pressure to balance budgets by mainly cutting costs. News reports from around the
state are almost universal in the job layoffs, mainly in the area of local government education.
State government employment is forecasted to slightly increase by 0.6 percent in 2011, due to
increased enrollment at state institutions of higher education. But state jobs will drop by 1.1
percent in 2012 and essentially flat in 2013 with growth of 0.2 percent. Local government jobs
will fall by 2.0 percent in 2011 followed by further declines of 1.3 percent in 2012. Local
government job growth picks up slightly to 0.9 percent in 2013.

Population growth has slowed with the economy and is projected to be below the U.S. growth
rate in 2011 at 0.7 percent. Population growth picks up at 0.9 percent in 2012 and 1.0 percent in
2013, but still below rates seen in 2005 through 2007.

Personal Income Components

Personal income is forecast to grow by 4.4 percent in 2011, followed by growth of 4.6 percent in
2012, and 4.8 percent in 2013. The 2011 growth gets a boost from the slowly recovering
economy and the social security tax cut. This boost is somewhat dampened by the slower growth


                                                 50
in transfer payments as federal stimulus funds have faded. Growth in 2012 is very close to 2011
but due to a better economy outlook pushing it up while the sunset of the social security tax cut
is pushing it down. Economic growth continues to push up growth rates in 2013.

Wage and salary income will increase 3.7 percent in 2011. The slow job recovery keeps this
component at a slowly climbing rate. The job picture continues to improve and wage and salary
income will increase 5.3 percent in 2012. 2013 will see stronger growth with 5.4 percent gains.

The forecast of various personal income components is provided in Appendix A. Nonfarm
proprietors' income, which includes income of small businesses, has picked up in 2011 with an
expected growth rate of 4.7 percent. The growth rate in this income component will pick up a bit
with growth of 5.2 percent and slightly lower in 2013 at 4.4 percent. Transfer payments will slow
as the economy recovers and the temporary social security tax cut, as previously mentioned, with
push up personal income growth rates in 2011 and lower the growth for 2012.

Per capita income in Oregon will stay below the U.S. average throughout the forecast horizon.
Oregon’s economy is expected to grow faster than the U.S. economy starting in 2011 with job
growth outpacing the U.S. and personal income growth will be above starting in 2012. Oregon’s
per capita income will gain on the U.S. average through 2013 but then the stronger population
growth will take over and Oregon’s relative position will be little changed in 2020 compared to
2013.

Forecast Changes Relative to the May 2011 Forecast

Table O.4 provides a summary of forecast changes compared to the May 2011 forecast.

Personal income was lowered slightly more than one percent in 2011 due to a smaller drop in
contributions for social security than forecasted for the first quarter of 2011. Personal income for
2011-2014 (and outer years) has been lowered due to lower outlook of national personal income
and our near term lowering of economic outlook for Oregon. On a year-over-year percentage
change basis, the current forecast values for 2011 has been lowered from 5.7 percent to 4.4
percent, for 2012 it has been lowered from 5.0 percent to 4.6 percent and for 2013 it has also
been lowered from 4.9 percent to 4.8 percent. Real personal income was not lowered to the same
degree as nominal personal income after 2013 due to lower forecasts for inflation.

OEA also revised down employment numbers in each of the years 2011-2020, by amounts
between 0.5 and 1.5 percents. This was due to the lower near term economic outlook, lower job
counts for the second quarter of 2010 and a lower national employment forecast.

Housing starts were better in the first half of this year than forecasted. This raised the outlook for
2011. Building permits for the first half of this year are still weak. Along with a slightly weaker
economic outlook, housing starts were lowered throughout the forecast horizon.

The construction outlook is raised for 2011. Higher estimated second quarter job counts relative
to forecast and no change in the national outlook for 2011. Construction jobs outlook is lowered
for 2012 through 2014, then a slight revision downwards for 2015 through 2020. The job levels
in construction rise on a yearly average starting with 2011 and are still below the peak levels in
2007 through the end of the forecast horizon (2020).


                                                 51
The manufacturing outlook is raised in 2011 and lowered ever so slightly in the outer years. The
upward revision reflects the higher second quarter 2011 numbers across both durable and
nondurable goods sectors.

Private nonmanufacturing is lowered slightly for 2011-2020. The downward revisions are mostly
due to lower information and professional and business services in the second quarter. From
2013 and out, there is a level shift to reflect the slow near term recovery.

The government sector employment is relatively unchanged with minimal lowering of the
forecast. The forecast level is maintained to reflect the lagged effect of the recession on public
sector budgets compared to the private sector.




                                               52
Table O.4
Oregon Forecast Change (Current vs. Last)
                                                            Quarterly                                                 Annual
                                        2011:1     2011:2      2011:3      2011:4     2012:1      2009     2010     2011     2012      2013     2014

                                                         Personal Income ($ billions)

Nominal Personal Income                   146.5      147.8       148.9     150.7        152.6     138.5    142.2    148.5    155.3     162.7    172.1
% change                                   (0.6)      (0.9)       (1.6)     (1.5)        (1.5)      0.0      0.1     (1.2)    (1.6)     (1.7)    (1.6)
Real Personal Income (base year=2005)     130.1      130.1       130.7     131.8        132.9     126.7    128.0    130.7    134.5     138.5    143.8
% change                                   (0.6)      (1.1)       (1.7)     (1.6)        (1.6)      0.0      0.1     (1.3)    (1.6)     (1.6)    (1.3)
Nominal Wages and Salaries                 73.0       73.5        74.1      75.2         76.2      70.2     71.3     74.0     77.8      82.0     86.3
% change                                    0.2       (0.8)       (1.7)     (1.8)        (1.7)      0.0      0.1     (1.1)    (1.6)     (1.6)    (1.7)
                                                                 Other Indicators

Per Capita Income ($1,000)                 38.0       38.3        38.5      38.9         39.3      36.3     37.0     38.4      39.8     41.3     43.2
% change                                   (0.4)      (0.7)        (1.4)    (1.2)        (1.2)      0.2      0.3     (0.9)     (1.2)    (1.3)    (1.1)
Average Wage rate ($1,000)                 44.4       44.5        44.9      45.4         45.8      43.0     44.0     44.8      46.3     47.7     49.1
% change                                   (0.8)      (0.8)        (0.8)    (0.7)        (0.6)     (0.1)     0.2     (0.8)     (0.5)    (0.3)    (0.3)
Population (Millions)                       3.86       3.86        3.87      3.88         3.88      3.82     3.84     3.87      3.90     3.94     3.98
% change                                   (0.2)      (0.2)        (0.3)    (0.3)        (0.3)     (0.2)    (0.2)    (0.2)     (0.4)    (0.4)    (0.5)
Housing Starts (Thousands)                  8.0        8.2          7.6      7.3          7.4       7.6      7.6      7.8       7.9     10.3     13.8
% change                                    5.5       11.5          1.4     (2.0)        (2.0)      0.0     (0.1)     4.1      (2.0)    (6.3)    (5.5)
Unemployment Rate                          10.2        9.4          9.3      9.2          9.0      11.1     10.8      9.5       8.7      7.5      6.6
Point Change                               (0.0)      (0.4)        (0.3)    (0.2)         0.1       0.0      0.0     (0.2)      0.2      0.1      0.0
                                                              Employment (Thousands)

Total Nonfarm                           1,622.3    1,625.0      1,627.2    1,634.6    1,644.6    1,612.9 1,599.8 1,627.3 1,659.0 1,696.5 1,737.0
% change                                   (0.0)      (0.5)        (0.9)      (1.1)      (1.1)       0.0     0.0    (0.6)   (1.2)   (1.3)   (1.4)
 Private Nonfarm                        1,324.0    1,329.2      1,336.2    1,345.0    1,355.0    1,313.4 1,300.3 1,333.6 1,369.0 1,404.9 1,443.2
 % change                                  (0.0)      (0.5)        (0.9)      (1.2)      (1.2)       0.0     0.0    (0.6)   (1.2)   (1.4)   (1.6)
  Construction                             68.5       69.1         69.3       69.3       69.5       74.1    67.7    69.0    69.7    71.9    79.0
  % change                                  0.2        0.3          0.4        0.0        0.1        0.0    (0.0)    0.2    (0.7)   (2.9)   (3.4)
  Manufacturing                           166.9      168.5        166.7      167.3      168.2      167.2   163.8   167.4   170.6   175.9   179.4
  % change                                  0.0        2.3          0.4        0.1       (0.1)       0.0     0.0     0.7    (0.1)   (0.2)   (0.2)
     Durable Manufacturing                116.2      118.3        118.9      119.4      120.2      117.9   114.8   118.2   122.5   127.6   130.7
     % change                              (0.0)       0.9          0.4        0.0       (0.2)       0.0     0.0     0.3    (0.1)    0.1    (0.0)
       Wood Product Manufacturing          19.2       18.8         19.0       19.2       19.5       21.0    19.9    19.0    20.0    21.5    23.1
       % change                            (0.1)      (2.0)        (1.8)      (1.2)      (0.1)       0.0    (0.0)   (1.3)    1.0     2.0     1.4
       High Tech Manufacturing             35.9       36.4         36.3       36.4       36.7       35.4    35.0    36.2    37.4    38.9    38.8
       % change                             0.2        1.8          1.3        0.9        1.1        0.0     0.0     1.0     1.5     1.8     1.1
       Transportation Equipment            10.4       10.5         10.6       10.4       10.2       10.2    10.2    10.5    10.4    11.0    11.9
       % change                             0.1        0.4          0.5       (3.0)      (6.2)      (0.0)   (0.0)   (0.5)   (7.2)   (8.6)   (8.6)
     Nondurable Manufacturing              50.7       50.2         47.7       47.9       48.0       49.3    49.0    49.1    48.1    48.4    48.8
     % change                               0.1        5.7          0.3        0.4        0.3        0.0     0.0     1.6    (0.2)   (0.8)   (0.7)
 Private nonmanufacturing               1,157.1    1,160.7      1,169.5    1,177.6    1,186.9    1,146.2 1,136.5 1,166.2 1,198.4 1,228.9 1,263.7
  % change                                 (0.0)      (0.9)        (1.1)      (1.3)      (1.4)       0.0     0.0    (0.8)   (1.4)   (1.6)   (1.7)
      Retail Trade                        187.1      189.0        189.8      190.1      190.4      183.4   183.4   189.0   191.1   193.0   195.1
      % change                              0.1        0.3          0.2        0.0       (0.3)       0.0    (0.0)    0.2    (0.5)   (1.2)   (1.5)
      Wholesale Trade                      72.1       72.2         73.1       74.0       74.8       75.3    72.7    72.9    75.8    77.8    79.8
      % change                             (0.0)      (0.8)        (1.3)      (1.7)      (1.8)       0.0     0.0    (1.0)   (2.0)   (2.5)   (2.3)
  Information                              32.8       32.8         33.1       33.5       33.9       33.1    32.2    33.1    34.0    34.5    34.4
   % change                                 0.0       (2.5)        (3.4)      (4.6)      (3.9)      (0.0)   (0.0)   (2.7)   (4.5)   (4.6)   (5.0)
  Professional and Business Services      186.6      185.5        187.3      189.0      191.4      180.1   181.3   187.1   193.4   200.8   213.0
   % change                                (0.2)      (2.9)        (3.8)      (4.2)      (4.0)       0.0     0.0    (2.8)   (3.3)   (2.0)   (1.7)
  Health Services                         200.9      202.7        204.5      206.3      208.0      192.9   197.0   203.6   210.6   216.7   222.8
   % change                                 0.1        0.0         (0.2)      (0.2)      (0.2)       0.0     0.0    (0.1)   (0.4)   (1.1)   (1.5)
  Leisure and Hospitality                 165.8      167.6        168.9      170.3      171.8      162.9   161.8   168.2   173.7   176.7   178.2
   % change                                (0.0)      (0.7)        (0.6)      (0.4)      (0.5)       0.0     0.0    (0.4)   (0.5)   (0.8)   (0.8)
 Government                               298.2      295.8        291.0      289.6      289.6      299.5   299.5   293.7   290.0   291.6   293.9
  % change                                 (0.1)      (0.6)        (0.9)      (0.9)      (0.8)       0.0    (0.0)   (0.6)   (0.8)   (0.7)   (0.6)




                                                                        53
                       Employment (000s)                                                                                                               Percent Change                                                                                            Percent Change                                                                          Percent Change




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ‐7
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ‐6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ‐5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ‐4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 ‐3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ‐2
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ‐2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  8




             0
                  10
                         20
                              30
                                   40
                                           50
                                                60
                                                                                                                                                             ‐7.5
                                                                                                                                                                    ‐5.0
                                                                                                                                                                           ‐2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                  0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                        2.5
                                                                                                                                                                                              5.0




                                                                                                                                     ‐15.0
                                                                                                                                             ‐12.5
                                                                                                                                                     ‐10.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1996                                                              1996
     1996
                                                                                                                              1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Graph O.1



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        1998                                                              1998
     1998
                                                                                                                              1998
     2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2000                                                              2000
                                                                                                                              2000
     2002                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2002                                                              2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Total Personal Income




                                                                                                                              2002
     2004                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2004                                                              2004
                                                                                                                              2004




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Total Nonfarm Employment




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Manufacturing Employment
     2006                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2006                                                              2006
                                                                                                                              2006




                                                               Wood Product
     2008                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2008                                                              2008
                                                                                                                              2008
     2010                                                                                                                     2010                                                                                                                                      2010                                                              2010

     2012                                                                                                                     2012                                                                                                                                      2012                                                              2012




                                                                                                 Select Industry Employment
     2014                                                                                                                     2014                                                                                                                                      2014                                                              2014




                                                               High Tech Mfg
     2016                                                                                                                     2016                                                                                                                                      2016                                                              2016
     2018                                                                                                                     2018                                                                                                                                      2018                                                              2018
     2020                                                                                                                     2020                                                                                                                                      2020                                                              2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Oregon




54
                       Percent Change                                                                                                                  Percent Change                                                                                            Percent Change                                                                          Percent Change
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ‐2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ‐1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              6
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    7




                  ‐5
                        0
                              5




            ‐10
                                    10
                                           15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  0.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1.5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.0




                                                                                                                                     ‐7.0
                                                                                                                                     ‐6.0
                                                                                                                                     ‐5.0
                                                                                                                                     ‐4.0
                                                                                                                                     ‐3.0
                                                                                                                                     ‐2.0
                                                                                                                                     ‐1.0
                                                                                                                                      0.0
                                                                                                                                      1.0
                                                                                                                                      2.0
                                                                                                                                      3.0
                                                                                                                                      4.0
                                                                                                                                      5.0
     1996                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1996
                                                                                                                              1996                                                                                                          1996
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Population




     1998                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           U.S.




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            1998




                                                                                             Housing Prices
                                                                                                                              1998
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Oregon and U.S. Economic Forecasts




     2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2000                                                                                              2000
                                                                                                                              2000
     2002                                                                                                                     2002                                                                                                          2002                                                                                              2002
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2005 Chain Weighted Dollars




     2004                                                                                                                     2004                                                                                                          2004                                                                                              2004
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Real Total Personal Income




     2006                                                                                                                     2006                                                                                                                                                                                                            2006
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2006




                                                Repeat Purcahse  Index, Oregon vs U.S. Avg
     2008                                                                                                                     2008                                                                                                                                                                                                            2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2008
     2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Private Non‐manufacturing Employment


                                                                                                                              2010                                                                                                          2010                                                                                              2010
     2012                                                                                                                     2012                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2012
     2014                                                                                                                     2014                                                                                                          2014                                                                                              2014
     2016                                                                                                                     2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2016                                                                                              2016
     2018                                                                                                                     2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2018                                                                                              2018
     2020                                                                                                                     2020
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            2020                                                                                              2020
                                                                                                                      Comparison of Last Three Forecasts
                                                                                                                                    Mar 2011                    May 2011              Sep 2011


                9
                                                 Personal Income Growth                                                                                                           4
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Employment Growth
                8                                                                                                                                                                 3
                7                                                                                                                                                                 2
                6                                                                                                                                                                 1
                5                                                                                                                                                                 0
                4                                                                                                                                                                ‐1




                                                                                                                                                                       Percent
     Percent




                3                                                                                                                                                                ‐2
                2                                                                                                                                                                ‐3
                1                                                                                                                                                                ‐4
                0                                                                                                                                                                ‐5
               ‐1                                                                                                                                                                ‐6
               ‐2                                                                                                                                                                ‐7




                                                                                                                                                                                      2000
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                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2011
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2012
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 2013
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        2014
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             2017
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    2018
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2019
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  2020
                    2000
                           2001
                                  2002
                                         2003
                                                2004
                                                       2005
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                                                                                          2010
                                                                                                 2011
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                                                                                                                             2015
                                                                                                                                    2016
                                                                                                                                           2017
                                                                                                                                                  2018
                                                                                                                                                         2019
                                                                                                                                                                2020
Alternative Scenarios

The baseline forecast is our projection of the most likely outcome for the Oregon economy. As
with any forecast, however, other scenarios are possible, especially given the current national
and international macroeconomic outlook, in which risks are heightened considerably and
concentrated more so on the downside. The Optimistic scenario is one in which the recover
gathers steam and employment and income growth accelerate through the end of the year. The
Pessimistic scenario is one in which the U.S. (and Oregon) falls back into recession with
declining consumer spending and job losses. These scenarios are not error band calculations
around the baseline forecast, as the scenarios are modeled on realistic assumptions of economic
growth, albeit either stronger or weaker than the baseline forecast.

Optimistic Scenario: The recovery gathers steam and pulls the economy out of recession and into
a stronger cyclical expansion. Economic growth is above potential for the rest of 2011 and all of
2012, resulting in stronger job and income gains. The temporary factors blamed for the
slowdown in early 2011 do prove temporary as any supply chain issues resulting from the
Japanese earthquake subside and commodity prices remain at current, lower levels, which further
strengthen consumption, particularly for durable goods purchases such as automobile sales. The
turbulence and volatility of equity markets in early August prove transitory and markets rebound
strongly to finish the year with positive gains.

In Oregon, job gains are broad based with strong growth in all private sector industries. Public
sector employment still contracts in the near term given the fixed budget outlook, however losses
are smaller than in the baseline as improving tax revenues prevent the most severe cutbacks. The
unemployment rate declines faster than the under the baseline scenario, because individuals are
able to find employment more readily as income growth accelerates. The increase in employment
and income support a self-sustaining economic expansion in which new income fuels increased
consumer spending (and debt reduction) which begets further increases in employment. Such an
expansion increases housing demand as newly employed households (and increasing income for
existing households) find their own homes after doubling-up with family and friends during the
recession. This results in working down the existing inventory overhang more quickly and new
construction returns to normal levels by early 2015.

Pessimistic Scenario: The true double dip recession. The U.S. economy, after growing at less
than 1.0 percent in the first half of 2011, stalls and falls back into recession. The normal drivers
of economic expansion - consumer spending and new residential construction – falter in the near


                                                                                                                                                                 55
term, pulling the overall economy down with them. The equity market volatility and high
gasoline prices cause consumers to retrench further, sending household spending to a screeching
halt which results in falling sales and rising inventories. Given this outcome, businesses decide to
cut expenses, with labor costs being one of the largest and most readily available expenses to cut.
The vicious recessionary cycle of falling demand leading to layoffs renews.

Just like the nation, in Oregon employment declines, unemployment rises, small business income
falls and total personal income plateaus on a nominal basis, however if unemployment insurance
benefits are not extended beyond the 26 week regular program, personal income in the state
would decline outright. The magnitude of the recession would be fairly mild by historical
standards; however it certainly will not go unnoticed, especially given the precariously
underwhelming expansion to date. Employment would decline 2.3 percent which is slightly
larger than the 1990 recession in Oregon and approximately half the depth of the 2001 recession
in the state. However, this employment decline would erase all the job gains the state has seen in
the past eighteen months, leaving the state with the same level of total nonfarm employment first
reached in the fall of 1999, which would be a time span of nearly 13 years. The unemployment
rate rises above 10 percent and remains there for two additional years, until the fall of 2013. The
unemployment rate does not fall below 8 percent until late 2017, which would mark nine full
years above that level.

Furthermore, the housing market would take longer to recover. Home prices decline another 11
percent, while new home construction’s rebound is delayed another year, resulting in further
sluggish growth in the near term. On the bright side, when construction does rebound, it will
result in a surge of new home building that will rise above the state’s long term average level of
building due to pent-up demand for housing and the fact that the state will have under built
housing during this time period.

Table O.5 details both the quarterly and annual outlook for select Oregon economic variables
under the two alternative scenarios. Graph O.3 illustrates these near-term scenarios for each of
the variables.




                                                56
Table O.5
Alternative Scenario Summary
                                                                     Quarterly                                                          Annual
                                           2011:1     2011:2      2011:3     2011:4       2012:1     2012:2        2010        2011       2012      2013       2014
                                                                            Baseline
Total Nonfarm Employment (thousands)       1,622.3    1,625.0     1,627.2     1,634.6     1,644.6    1,654.1     1,599.8     1,627.3    1,659.0 1,696.5 1,737.0
% change                                      4.9%       0.7%        0.5%        1.8%        2.5%       2.3%       -0.8%        1.7%       1.9%     2.3%     2.4%
Unemployment Rate                             10.2         9.4        9.3          9.2        9.0         8.9       10.8         9.5         8.7     7.5      6.6
Point Change                                  (0.4)       (0.8)      (0.1)        (0.1)      (0.2)       (0.2)       (0.3)      (1.3)       (0.8)   (1.2)    (0.9)
Total Personal Income ($ billions)           146.5      147.8       148.9       150.7       152.6      154.4       142.2       148.5      155.3    162.7    172.1
% change                                      7.7%       3.5%        3.0%        5.1%        4.9%       4.8%        2.7%        4.4%       4.6%     4.8%     5.8%
Nonfarm Proprietors' Income ($ billions)      10.7       10.8        11.0        11.1        11.2       11.4        10.4        10.9       11.4     12.0     12.5
% change                                      7.1%       4.8%        7.6%        5.7%        4.2%       4.8%        4.0%        4.7%       5.2%     4.4%     4.7%
Housing Starts                             8,028.5    8,228.0     7,389.0     7,314.0     7,414.0    7,474.0     7,642.6     7,739.9    7,852.5 10,257.0 13,806.8
% change                                     22.6%      10.3%      -35.0%       -4.0%        5.6%       3.3%        0.6%        1.3%       1.5%    30.6%    34.6%
Housing Price Index (1980 Q1 = 100)          362.0      351.7       340.6       336.2       332.5      334.5       383.9       347.6      336.6    345.7    355.7
% change                                    -15.2%     -11.0%      -12.0%       -5.1%       -4.3%       2.4%       -6.5%       -9.4%      -3.2%     2.7%     2.9%
                                                                    Optimistic Scenario
Total Nonfarm Employment (thousands)       1,622.3    1,625.0     1,631.6     1,647.8     1,669.1    1,683.8     1,599.8     1,631.7    1,695.7 1,750.7 1,791.6
% change                                      4.9%       0.7%        1.6%        4.1%        5.3%       3.6%       -0.8%        2.0%       3.9%     3.2%     2.3%
Unemployment Rate                             10.2         9.4        9.1          8.7        8.4         8.1       10.8         9.3         7.9     6.8      6.0
Point Change                                  (0.4)       (0.8)      (0.3)        (0.4)      (0.4)       (0.3)       (0.3)      (1.5)       (1.4)   (1.1)    (0.8)
Total Personal Income ($ billions)           146.5      147.8       149.6       151.8       154.3      156.7       142.2       148.9      158.1    167.2    176.5
% change                                      7.7%       3.5%        4.9%        6.1%        6.8%       6.3%        2.7%        4.7%       6.2%     5.8%     5.5%
Nonfarm Proprietors' Income ($ billions)      10.7       10.8        11.0        11.3        11.5       11.7        10.4        10.9       11.7     12.2     12.9
% change                                      7.1%       4.8%       10.4%        9.3%        7.1%       5.8%        4.0%        5.2%       7.0%     4.5%     5.8%
Housing Starts                             8,028.5    8,228.0     7,938.3     8,573.8     9,048.2    9,187.9     7,642.6     8,192.1    9,477.2 12,151.2 17,453.4
% change                                     22.6%      10.3%      -13.4%       36.1%       24.0%       6.3%        0.6%        7.2%      15.7%    28.2%    43.6%
Housing Price Index (1980 Q1 = 100)          362.0      351.7       346.6       344.2       341.4      343.3       383.9       351.1      346.1    363.8    375.6
% change                                    -15.2%     -11.0%       -5.6%       -2.8%       -3.2%       2.3%       -6.5%       -8.5%      -1.4%     5.1%     3.3%
                                                                   Pessimistic Scenario
Total Nonfarm Employment (thousands)       1,622.3    1,625.0     1,625.8     1,620.2     1,606.6    1,591.6     1,599.8     1,623.3    1,599.8   1,625.6    1,668.9
% change                                      4.9%       0.7%        0.2%       -1.4%       -3.3%      -3.7%       -0.8%        1.5%      -1.4%      1.6%       2.7%
Unemployment Rate                             10.2         9.4        9.5         9.7        10.1       10.4        10.8         9.7       10.3      10.2        9.5
Point Change                                  (0.4)       (0.8)       0.1         0.2         0.4        0.3         (0.3)      (1.1)       0.6      (0.2)      (0.7)
Total Personal Income ($ billions)           146.5      147.8       148.4       149.2       149.3      149.2       142.2       148.0      150.1     155.9      165.7
% change                                      7.7%       3.5%        1.7%        2.3%        0.2%      -0.2%        2.7%        4.0%       1.4%      3.9%       6.2%
Nonfarm Proprietors' Income ($ billions)      10.7       10.8        10.8        10.7        10.5       10.4        10.4        10.7       10.4      10.8       11.3
% change                                      7.1%       4.8%        0.8%       -5.3%       -5.7%      -5.0%        4.0%        3.1%      -3.0%      3.4%       4.9%
Housing Starts                             8,028.5    8,228.0     6,745.6     6,134.1     5,816.5    5,933.8     7,642.6     7,284.0    5,938.2   6,806.8    9,800.1
% change                                     22.6%      10.3%      -54.8%      -31.6%      -19.2%       8.3%        0.6%       -4.7%     -18.5%     14.6%      44.0%
Housing Price Index (1980 Q1 = 100)          362.0      351.7       338.7       330.2       318.5      315.4       383.9       345.6      315.1     315.6      325.8
% change                                    -15.2%     -11.0%      -13.9%       -9.7%      -13.4%      -3.9%       -6.5%      -10.0%      -8.8%      0.1%       3.2%




                                                                             57
Graph O.3

                   Total Nonfarm Employment                                                                             Total Personal Income
           Recession                 Optimistic           Pessimistic           Baseline               Recession                Optimistic            Pessimistic           Baseline
   1,900,000                                                                                    $190,000

   1,850,000                                                                                    $180,000
                                                                                                $170,000
   1,800,000
                                                                                                $160,000
   1,750,000                                                                                    $150,000
   1,700,000                                                                                    $140,000

   1,650,000                                                                                    $130,000
                                                                                                $120,000
   1,600,000
                                                                                                $110,000
   1,550,000                                                                                    $100,000
   1,500,000                                                                                     $90,000
                2000       2002      2004    2006    2008      2010      2012    2014                        2000     2002   2004       2006     2008      2010      2012    2014


                            Unemployment Rate                                                                 Nonfarm Proprietors' Income
               Recession             Optimistic           Pessimistic           Baseline               Recession                Optimistic            Pessimistic           Baseline
                                                                                                 $14,000
   12
                                                                                                 $13,000
   10
                                                                                                 $12,000
    8

                                                                                                 $11,000
    6

    4                                                                                            $10,000


    2                                                                                             $9,000


    0                                                                                             $8,000
        2000       2002       2004       2006      2008     2010        2012    2014                         2000     2002   2004      2006      2008      2010     2012     2014


                              Total Housing Starts                                                              Housing Price Index (FHFA)
               Recession             Optimistic           Pessimistic           Baseline                 Recession              Optimistic            Pessimistic           Baseline
   36,000                                                                                       500

   32,000
                                                                                                450
   28,000
                                                                                                400
   24,000

   20,000                                                                                       350

   16,000
                                                                                                300
   12,000
                                                                                                250
    8,000

    4,000                                                                                       200
            2000       2002       2004      2006    2008      2010      2012     2014                 2000     2002      2004       2006       2008     2010        2012     2014




Forecast Risks

At the very least, the supply chain disruptions from the natural disaster is Japan are fading away.
High commodity prices are retreating though the price of gold dances to different tune. That’s
about it for relief from the headwinds hitting the US and Oregon economies. Congress managed
to cripple together an agreement to raise the debt ceiling only to have S&P downgrade US
Treasury securities and the Dow drops almost 11 percent in 5 days (August 2 – 8). The risk of
another recession is heightened and the resiliency of the US economy will be tested.


                                                                                           58
Oregon faces these same headwinds and though our recovery is stronger than the US, it is still
relatively weak and fragile. Our wood products industry will continue to struggle as the housing
market will be slow to recover. Exports have been strong but worries of world financial problems
could slow them down. State and local governments will likely cut more budgets lowering
services and workers.

The color of our outlook has turned more a shade of yellow and less green.

We will continue to monitor and recognize the potential impacts of risk factors on the Oregon
economy. We have identified the major risks now facing the Oregon economy in the list below:

   •   Contagion of the credit crunch and financial market instability. As more time passes, this
       downside risk becomes less likely to occur. Credit markets are easing, but consumers and
       businesses still have difficulty getting loans. To the extent that credit markets take longer to
       come back to some sort of state of normalcy, the current recovery could be slower than
       projected or thrown off track. Housing and commercial real estate may take longer for
       credit conditions to improve. Oregon will suffer the consequences along with the rest of the
       nation.

   •   Prolonged housing market instability. Signs are starting to emerge that the housing
       market has hit bottom, at least in terms of housing starts, but prices may have further to
       fall. Foreclosures and delinquency rates are still relatively high. Oregon, with the rest of
       the nation, will still see corrections to the housing market in 2011. The question is
       whether the job growth will kick in to alleviate the downward pressures from declining
       housing prices and oversupply of homes. The housing market appears to be the biggest
       threat to a sustained economic recovery in Oregon.

   •   Commodity price inflation. With world economies starting to recover and emerging
       markets still strong, the stage is set for higher commodity prices. Food prices are near their
       2008 highs. Oil prices have recently topped $100 a barrel; however WTI is now slightly
       lower. Industrial metals are also on the rise. This could be a repeat of commodity price
       spikes that took place in 2007-2008. The risk is how disruptive this will be on businesses
       and whether the commodity price inflation will lead to general inflation. With a weak
       recovery that needs to build strength, the commodity inflation could throw this off track.
       Then again, if this is only a change in relative prices and wage costs do not accelerate, this
       commodity inflation could be short lived.

   •   Loss of federal timber payments to Oregon counties. President Obama included a reduced
       federal timber payment package in the 2012 federal budget. The amount has been reduced
       by 10 percent and reduces by 20 percent over five years. Questions remain as to whether
       this item will survive further budget changes from Congress. If the federal timber payments
       do not survive, the last payments to counties will be this October. While this temporary
       reinstatement helps cover short term budgets for Oregon counties, finding or replacing this
       dwindling revenue source will be imperative as any loss of public services could have
       adverse impacts on economic activity.

   •   Global Spillovers Both Up and Down. The international list of risks seems to change by the
       day: sovereign debt problems in Europe, equity and property bubbles in places like South

                                                 59
       America and Asia, political unrest in the Middle East, and commodity price spikes and
       inflationary pressures in emerging markets. The natural disaster in Japan has caused slight
       supply chain disruptions to Oregon firms but the coming reconstruction phase may bring
       new business. Also internationally we have economies recovering, incomes rising, and
       demand for U.S. and Oregon exports are rising. Whether the downside risks will dissipate
       and the recoveries take hold will influence the direction of strength of U.S. and Oregon
       economic recoveries. With China now the top destination for Oregon exports, the state of
       the Chinese economy has spillover effects to the Oregon economy.

   •   State and Local Governments. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities finds that 44
       states and the District of Columbia are projecting budget shortfalls totaling $125 billion for
       fiscal year 2012 which generally starts this summer. Local government budget shortfalls
       add to this total. Oregon is among the states facing a budget shortfall. Given that further
       tax increases are unlikely in Oregon, balancing budgets will mainly be through spending
       cuts. In a mixed private-public economy, this will be a drag on the economic recovery. The
       question is whether the building strength of the private sector will be enough to continue
       the recovery through the state and local government budget crises.

   •   Undoing the Federal Policy Used to Combat the Financial Crisis and Recession.
       Bailouts, tax cuts, monetary quantitative easing, and other fiscal packages most likely
       prevented a more serious economic downturn. But the clean-up after the storm can have its
       own risks to the economy. Exit strategies will have to be carefully implemented to prevent
       premature tightening and choking off the recovery or acting too late to avoid an inflationary
       environment. All states, including Oregon, face the same risks.

   •   Initiatives, referendums, and referrals. Generally, the ballot box brings a number of
       unknowns that could have sweeping impacts on the Oregon economy.

Extended Outlook

The Oregon economy grew slower than the U.S. economy from 1998 through 2003. This had not
occurred since 1985. It outpaced the nation in growth in 2004 through 2007. Between 2011 and
2017, employment growth in Oregon will be slower than in the mid-1990s. However, the U.S.
economy is expected to have even slower growth than that expected in Oregon after 2011. IHS
Global Insight projects Oregon’s Gross State Product to have the second highest growth rate in
the nation over the coming years.

The slower economic growth of 1998 through 2003 and 2008 through 2011 also slowed the
growth of Oregon’s per capita income and average wages. The devastating 1980-82 recession
slowed the growth of incomes and wages until 1986. In the 1990s, as the Oregon economy
became more industrially diversified, per capita income and wages grew faster than the nation’s
as a whole. But the expansion period of 2004 to 2007 did not increase our per capita income
compared to the nation, and now this relative measure is at a historic low. Going forward, the
Oregon economy is projected to grow faster than the nation’s. However, with population growth
projected to be higher in Oregon, very little progress on raising per capita income compared to
the U.S. is projected out to 2020.




                                                60
The Oregon Employment Department has published a detailed look at Oregon’s per capita
personal income entitled Why Oregon Trails the Nation; it can be found at:
http://olmis.emp.state.or.us/olmisj/PubReader?itemid=00007366

The key factors that will fuel the state’s long-term growth are listed below:

   •   Steady in-migration and population growth: High population growth is an opportunity for
       economic growth as the state creates jobs to serve a growing population. At the same
       time, it presents a challenge for the state as the demand for services increases.

   •   Export growth and high commodity prices: Global economic expansion will increase
       demand for Oregon commodities, both finished and capital goods. Oregon is well
       positioned for trade with countries in the Pacific Rim. High commodity prices will
       benefit agricultural and timber producers in the state.

   •   Returning high energy price: Recently, stronger demand and possibly speculation for oil
       has caused the gas price to spike. The long-term growth of the developing world could
       cause demand to create more lasting upward price pressures. We have already seen how
       high energy prices can slow consumer spending and raise business costs.

   •   Continued strength in domestic markets: Continued economic growth in California and
       other major domestic markets will fuel demand for Oregon products.

   •   Business costs advantages: The Oregon economy will benefit from a comprehensive
       energy plan. Efforts which have long been in place for electricity planning should extend
       to all energy sources. If the plan can assure businesses of an abundant, reliable, and
       relatively inexpensive supply of electricity and other sources of energy, the state (and the
       Pacific Northwest) will continue to have a relative energy cost advantage over other
       regions. Oregon has other business cost advantages, such as lower workers’
       compensation rates and multi-modal transportation options compared to other states.
       Equally important is an educated work force that contributes to productivity.

   •   Environmental issues: Salmon protection measures, the Portland Super Fund, and other
       issues could change the economic landscape.

   •   Affordable housing: For most of the late 1990s and the early part of this decade,
       California, Washington, and the nation as a whole have experienced more rapidly rising
       housing costs than Oregon. The housing boom once again raised California prices above
       Oregon’s house prices, and Washington kept pace with Oregon. This relative advantage
       in housing cost is narrowing as prices in California fall faster than in Oregon, with
       Washington once again keeping pace with Oregon. If housing costs rise faster in Oregon
       than in the rest of the nation, companies will face increased difficulties recruiting
       workers. If Oregon can maintain a relative cost advantage in housing, this factor will be
       attractive for firm location.

   •   Biotechnology and Clean Technology: These sectors are seen by many as the next growth
       industries. Portland and the state have launched funding plans to promote the
       biotechnology sector. The platform for the Oregon Business Plan includes

                                                61
       nanotechnology as an emerging field for Oregon. It is too early to tell if these are indeed
       the next growth industries and what returns they may bring.

   •   Renewable Energy and Sustainable development: Centered in the Portland area, this
       movement in sustainable building practices is spreading throughout the U.S. Uncertainty
       surrounds the number of new jobs associated with this movement, but it may allow gains
       in market shares for construction and consulting firms in Oregon. Renewable energy such
       as solar and wind mills are increasingly looking to Oregon as a place to locate.

   •   Quality of life: Oregon will continue to attract financially secure retirees. Companies that
       place a high premium on quality of life will also want to locate in Oregon.

Oregon Regional Profile

The accompanying regional and county tables (Table 0.6 through 0.9) highlight the social,
economic, and demographic diversity in the state. This section will be a regular feature following
the Oregon Economic Review and Forecast. Please review these tables in each quarterly issue as
they will include updated data every quarter.




                                                62
Table O.6
                        Oregon's Economic Profile by County and Region

                           2009            2010           2009           2010            2009            2010
                                                                                     Per capita   Average wage
Geography               Total Employment             Unemployment Rate          personal income         per job

Oregon              1,759,757      1,769,599          11.1%          10.8%          $36,191        $40,742
Portland 5-County     863,542        868,964        10.2%          9.9%             $40,246        $46,237
 Clackamas               181,878        183,020         10.3%         10.1%            $43,646        $41,395
 Columbia                 21,428         21,563         13.2%         12.3%            $33,325        $32,467
 Multnomah               353,106        355,323         10.4%         10.1%            $40,490        $46,232
 Washington              264,220        265,878          9.4%          9.1%            $39,465        $51,351
 Yamhill                  42,910         43,180         11.5%         10.8%            $32,894        $33,927
Willamette Valley     428,144        430,645        11.3%         10.9%             $32,916        $36,162
Benton                    40,314         40,990          7.9%          7.3%            $37,922        $42,683
Lane                     161,814        162,524         12.2%         11.1%            $33,562        $35,475
Linn                      48,519         49,141         13.8%         13.3%            $29,451        $34,826
Marion                   140,983        141,375         11.0%         11.2%            $32,876        $36,422
Polk                      36,514         36,615          9.4%          9.3%            $30,056        $29,891
Coast                  84,631         85,550        11.0%         11.1%             $33,004        $30,250
 Clatsop                  18,896         19,141          9.0%          9.4%            $33,545        $30,878
 Coos                     24,937         25,265         12.9%         12.6%            $31,614        $30,491
 Curry                     8,261          8,311         13.0%         12.7%            $34,683        $29,025
 Lincoln                  20,857         20,900         10.5%         10.8%            $33,810        $29,665
 Tillamook                11,680         11,933          9.4%          9.7%            $32,773        $30,517
Southern              159,721        159,686        13.7%         13.4%             $32,700        $33,089
 Douglas                  39,901         39,941         15.5%         14.6%            $31,686        $32,742
 Jackson                  89,507         89,555         12.7%         12.6%            $34,314        $34,039
 Josephine                30,313         30,190         14.3%         14.2%            $29,981        $30,432
Central               144,247        144,186        13.6%         13.3%             $33,097        $33,325
 Crook                     7,839          7,593         18.0%         17.5%            $26,116        $31,193
 Deschutes                69,808         69,207         14.7%         14.4%            $35,966        $35,307
 Gilliam                   1,146          1,154          6.8%          6.7%            $37,450        $39,011
 Hood River               12,859         13,319          8.1%          8.3%            $33,446        $28,093
 Jefferson                 7,973          8,120         14.8%         14.1%            $29,059        $32,347
 Klamath                  26,940         26,879         13.9%         13.4%            $29,387        $32,297
 Lake                      3,234          3,336         12.5%         13.2%            $31,269        $31,323
 Sherman                     957            965          9.0%         10.0%            $41,049        $47,246
 Wasco                    12,893         12,983          9.0%          9.3%            $33,979        $30,873
 Wheeler                     598            630          9.0%         10.8%            $27,339        $24,466
Eastern                79,474         80,566        10.6%         10.6%             $29,243        $31,781
 Baker                     6,860          6,910         10.2%         10.2%            $29,098        $29,264
 Grant                     2,998          3,038         13.5%         13.4%            $31,669        $30,175
 Harney                    2,969          3,030         16.1%         15.5%            $29,447        $30,248
 Malheur                  11,761         11,987         10.8%         10.9%            $23,960        $28,960
 Morrow                    5,280          5,344          9.2%          8.9%            $29,686        $36,788
 Umatilla                 35,081         35,502          9.6%          9.9%            $30,193        $33,846
 Union                    11,205         11,374         11.5%         10.4%            $31,163        $30,198
 Wallowa                   3,320          3,381         11.9%         12.0%            $32,725        $27,615

Sources: Total employment and unemployment rateS: Oregon Employment Department;
per capita personal income: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis;
average wage per job: Oregon Employment Department.




                                                     63
Table O.7
                                             Oregon's Population

                    April 1, 2000 April 1, 2010   2000-20010                  April 1, 2010
                                                                           Children <18 as Minority children
                           Total          Total              % of minority       % of total    as a % of all
STATE/COUNTY          Population     Population     % change    population      population          children
OREGON               3,421,399      3,831,074        12.0%          21.5%             22.6%               33.9%
Portland PMSA        1,572,771    1,789,580          13.8%          25.1%             23.0%               37.4%
  Clackamas               338,391      375,992           11.1%          15.5%             23.7%               24.0%
  Columbia                 43,560       49,351           13.3%           9.7%             23.5%               15.5%
  Multnomah               660,486      735,334           11.3%          27.9%             20.5%               43.7%
  Washington              445,342      529,710           18.9%          30.3%             25.6%               42.4%
  Yamhill                  84,992       99,193           16.7%          20.9%             25.0%               30.8%
Willamette Valley      851,395       944,704         11.0%          20.8%             22.7%               33.8%
 Benton                    78,153        85,579           9.5%          16.4%             17.8%               23.7%
 Lane                     322,959       351,715           8.9%          15.3%             19.8%               25.3%
 Linn                     103,069       116,672          13.2%          12.9%             24.1%               21.3%
 Marion                   284,834       315,335          10.7%          31.3%             26.4%               47.7%
 Polk                      62,380        75,403          20.9%          19.5%             24.3%               30.3%
Coast                  188,287       193,730          2.9%          13.4%             18.6%               25.1%
  Clatsop                  35,630        37,039          4.0%           12.8%             20.5%               22.0%
  Coos                     62,779        63,043          0.4%           13.0%             18.9%               23.5%
  Curry                    21,137        22,364          5.8%           11.3%             15.7%               23.0%
  Lincoln                  44,479        46,034          3.5%           15.6%             17.3%               30.7%
  Tillamook                24,262        25,250          4.1%           13.3%             19.8%               26.2%
Southern               357,394       393,586         10.1%          13.7%             21.2%               23.5%
  Douglas                 100,399       107,667           7.2%          10.5%             20.5%               17.6%
  Jackson                 181,269       203,206          12.1%          16.3%             21.8%               27.9%
  Josephine                75,726        82,713           9.2%          11.4%             20.4%               19.8%
Central                274,353       327,342         19.3%          17.1%             23.0%               28.2%
  Crook                    19,182        20,978           9.4%          10.6%             21.9%               18.7%
  Deschutes               115,367       157,733          36.7%          11.6%             23.0%               19.2%
  Gilliam                   1,915         1,871          -2.3%           7.8%             18.9%               16.7%
  Hood River               20,411        22,346           9.5%          34.2%             26.0%               49.8%
  Jefferson                19,009        21,720          14.3%          38.2%             25.3%               58.3%
  Klamath                  63,775        66,380           4.1%          18.9%             22.3%               31.1%
  Lake                      7,422         7,895           6.4%          12.9%             19.3%               24.6%
  Sherman                   1,934         1,765          -8.7%           8.4%             19.8%               18.3%
  Wasco                    23,791        25,213           6.0%          22.4%             23.2%               37.6%
  Wheeler                   1,547         1,441          -6.9%           9.3%             18.0%               20.1%
Eastern                177,199       182,132          2.8%          24.0%             24.6%               37.2%
  Baker                    16,741        16,134          -3.6%           7.4%             20.3%               12.7%
  Grant                     7,935         7,445          -6.2%           6.6%             19.2%               11.3%
  Harney                    7,609         7,422          -2.5%          10.4%             22.4%               15.4%
  Malheur                  31,615        31,313          -1.0%          36.4%             25.6%               53.6%
  Morrow                   10,995        11,173           1.6%          35.4%             28.6%               50.5%
  Umatilla                 70,548        75,889           7.6%          30.6%             26.6%               44.5%
  Union                    24,530        25,748           5.0%           9.1%             22.5%               14.3%
  Wallowa                   7,226         7,008          -3.0%           5.5%             18.8%               10.2%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau
         Minority population includes all race/ethnic group other than White alone who are Not Hispanic or Latino.




                                                             64
Table O.8
              Oregon's Public Elementary and Secondary School Enrollment Statistics
                                 Enrollment
                       Oct. 1, 2010     Oct. 1, 2009    2009-2010           2010-2011               2009-2010
                                                                  % eligible for free or Operating expenditure
STATE/COUNTY            enrollment        enrollment     % change  reduced price lunch             per student
OREGON                   561,331          561,698         -0.1%                  50.5%                 $9,230
Portland PMSA            258,689          257,985          0.3%                  44.3%                 $9,152
  Clackamas                  57,996           58,394          -0.7%                  35.3%                  $8,497
  Columbia                    8,241            8,281          -0.5%                  42.8%                  $8,628
  Multnomah                  90,766           90,357           0.5%                  53.8%                 $10,137
  Washington                 85,155           84,165           1.2%                  39.0%                  $8,722
  Yamhill                    16,531           16,788          -1.5%                  51.3%                  $8,485
Willamette Valley        142,548          142,667         -0.1%                  53.2%                 $9,198
  Benton                      8,772            8,873          -1.1%                  37.4%                  $9,278
  Lane                       45,223           45,638          -0.9%                  51.5%                  $9,379
  Linn                       21,406           21,361           0.2%                  47.0%                  $7,986
  Marion                     60,474           60,068           0.7%                  59.2%                  $9,512
  Polk                        6,673            6,727          -0.8%                  51.2%                  $8,949
Coast                     24,240           24,379         -0.6%                  56.9%                $10,164
  Clatsop                     4,898            4,954          -1.1%                  51.5%                 $10,449
  Coos                        8,453            8,511          -0.7%                  54.6%                  $9,331
  Curry                       2,469            2,457           0.5%                  59.8%                 $10,943
  Lincoln                     5,181            5,179           0.0%                  61.5%                 $10,074
  Tillamook                   3,239            3,278          -1.2%                  61.6%                 $11,454
Southern                  53,508           53,449          0.1%                  57.5%                 $8,941
  Douglas                    14,474           14,576          -0.7%                  60.5%                  $9,471
  Jackson                    28,194           27,995           0.7%                  54.6%                  $8,510
  Josephine                  10,840           10,878          -0.3%                  60.8%                  $9,324
Central                   49,464           49,788         -0.7%                  57.9%                 $9,257
  Crook                       2,932            3,113          -5.8%                  60.8%                  $8,100
  Deschutes                  24,180           23,964           0.9%                  51.9%                  $8,305
  Gilliam                       247              246           0.4%                  48.2%                 $17,008
  Hood River                  3,989            4,026          -0.9%                  58.4%                 $10,574
  Jefferson                   3,461            3,582          -3.4%                  79.6%                 $10,460
  Klamath                     9,625            9,697          -0.7%                  66.5%                  $9,995
  Lake                        1,068            1,126          -5.2%                  42.5%                 $10,514
  Sherman                       234              248          -5.6%                  54.7%                 $16,407
  Wasco                       3,505            3,546          -1.2%                  57.4%                 $10,120
  Wheeler                       223              240          -7.1%                  61.0%                 $16,339
Eastern                   30,354           30,407         -0.2%                  60.9%             $9,763
  Baker                       2,354            2,348           0.3%                  51.6%                  $10,078
  Grant                         962              988          -2.6%                  51.3%                  $14,133
  Harney                      1,156            1,290         -10.4%                  50.2%                  $10,826
  Malheur                     5,027            5,107          -1.6%                  69.4%                  $10,661
  Morrow                      2,389            2,426          -1.5%                  69.4%                   $9,780
  Umatilla                   13,736           13,580           1.1%                  63.5%                   $8,983
  Union                       3,854            3,796           1.5%                  50.6%                   $9,420
  Wallowa                       876              872           0.5%                  46.3%                  $10,695

Source: Oregon Department of Education
Note: excludes pre-kindergarten enrollment
  Operating expenditure per student calculated by dividing school-year expenditure by October 1 enrollment count.
  County/region total do not add to the state total due to county not assigned cases.




                                                          65
Table O.9
2010 Annual Average Covered Employment by Industry and by Region


                                                                                    Region
                                                  Portland 5-   Willamette
Employment                              Oregon       County         Valley       Coast       Southern     Central   Eastern

Natural Resources & Mining               46,295       12,053          15,409      2,394           4,087     6,264     5,966
Construction                             66,130       35,883          14,047      2,753           4,719     4,936     2,039
Manufacturing                           163,214       94,898          33,703      6,229          12,452     8,706     7,099
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities      305,157      162,030          61,413     12,447          28,354    22,345    13,201
Information                              32,116       19,668           5,730        692           2,301     1,893       606
Financial Activities                     79,242       49,556          14,032      2,352           5,453     4,957     1,826
Professional & Business Services        180,940      112,373          32,229      4,358          10,936    10,462     3,712
Education & Health Services             221,832      115,010          52,317      7,596          21,079    17,276     7,520
Leisure & Hospitality                   161,889       81,446          32,054     12,267          14,396    15,565     5,617
Other Services                           61,430       32,313          13,906      2,560           5,151     4,108     1,859
Government                              279,841      117,108          83,072     16,015          23,121    22,543    17,929

Total                                 1,598,764      832,637         357,979     69,677       132,080     119,138    67,392


                                                                                    Region
                                                  Portland 5-   Willamette
Distribution                            Oregon       County         Valley       Coast       Southern     Central   Eastern

Natural Resources & Mining                2.9%          1.4%           4.3%       3.4%            3.1%      5.3%      8.9%
Construction                              4.1%          4.3%           3.9%       4.0%            3.6%      4.1%      3.0%
Manufacturing                            10.2%         11.4%           9.4%       8.9%            9.4%      7.3%     10.5%
Trade, Transportation, & Utilities       19.1%         19.5%          17.2%      17.9%           21.5%     18.8%     19.6%
Information                               2.0%          2.4%           1.6%       1.0%            1.7%      1.6%      0.9%
Financial Activities                      5.0%          6.0%           3.9%       3.4%            4.1%      4.2%      2.7%
Professional & Business Services         11.3%         13.5%           9.0%       6.3%            8.3%      8.8%      5.5%
Education & Health Services              13.9%         13.8%          14.6%      10.9%           16.0%     14.5%     11.2%
Leisure & Hospitality                    10.1%          9.8%           9.0%      17.6%           10.9%     13.1%      8.3%
Other Services                            3.8%          3.9%           3.9%       3.7%            3.9%      3.4%      2.8%
Government                               17.5%         14.1%          23.2%      23.0%           17.5%     18.9%     26.6%

Total                                   100.0%       100.0%          100.0%     100.0%        100.0%      100.0%    100.0%

Source: Oregon Employment Department
Note: Employment includes only covered employment.
    Oregon total includes multi-county employment not shown in individual regions.
    Total includes a small number of non-classifiable jobs not shown in individual industries.

Definition of regions:
Portland 5-County: Clackamas, Columbia, Multnomah, Washington, and Yamhill counties.
Willamette Valley: Benton, Lane, Linn, Marion, and Polk counties.
Coast: Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln, and Tillamook counties.
Southern: Douglas, Jackson, and Josephine counties.
Central: Crook, Deschutes, Gilliam, Hood River, Jefferson, Klamath, Lake, Sherman, Wasco, and Wheeler counties.
Eastern: Baker, Grant, Harney, Malheur, Morrow, Union, Umatilla, and Wallowa counties.




                                                                66
II.    REVENUE FORECAST

Summary

The outlook for revenue growth in Oregon is threatened by the uncertainty surrounding the
nascent recovery in the regional job market. Given how fragile consumer and business
confidence have become, downside risks to the forecast have clearly intensified in recent weeks.

Through a lack of confidence, the troubles in Europe, Washington D.C., and on Wall Street may
well infect the local economy going forward. That said, all of Oregon’s core measures of
economic activity (private employment, earnings and tax collections) are still expanding--albeit
at disappointing rates. In particular, until we see private employers cutting jobs, it is difficult to
argue that Oregon’s economic expansion has ended.

Although the turmoil in financial markets is not expected to derail Oregon’s economic recovery,
it will nevertheless create additional headwinds for growth. Most notably, wealth losses suffered
in stock markets can be expected to put downward pressure on household spending, and will
result in fewer tax collections tied to realizations of capital gains.

Despite these challenges, the baseline (most likely) forecast has not been revised downward
drastically at this time. However, the risks to the outlook are clearly skewed to the downside.
There is around a one in three chance that the U.S. economy will slip back into recession, which
would certainly drag Oregon’s regional economy down with it. In such a scenario, the forecast
for tax revenues would fall drastically.

After the smoke clears, revenue growth in Oregon and other states will face considerable
downward pressure over the 10-year extended forecast horizon. As the baby boom population
cohort works less and spends less, traditional state tax instruments such as personal income taxes
and general sales taxes will become less effective, and revenue growth will fail to match the pace
seen during recent periods of economic expansion.

A.     2011-13 General Fund Revenues

Led by personal income tax collections, general fund revenues are posting large gains entering
the 2011-13 biennium. Temporary factors will help support healthy growth in personal income
tax collections in the near term, but growth in collections will lose a steam in the second half of
the biennium. Corporate tax collections are now falling rapidly, with the boom in underlying
corporate profits having come to an end.

Due in roughly equal parts to losses to labor earnings and to investment forms of income, the
outlook for the 2011-13 biennium is somewhat weaker than what was predicted in the May 2011
forecast. The forecast for General Fund revenues for 2011-13 is now $13,816 million. This
represents a decrease of $62.0 million (-0.4%) from the May 2011 forecast. Excluding policy
changes and fund transfers, general fund revenues are expected to be $192.6 million (-1.4%)
lower than in May.




                                                 67
Table R.1
2011-13 General Fund Forecast Summary
                                                 2011 COS                May 2011 September 2011    Change from Change from
(Millions)                                        Forecast               Forecast       Forecast    Prior Forecast COS Forecast

Structural Revenues
   Personal Income Tax                            $12,193.6              $12,202.1      $12,035.1          -$167.0       -$158.4

    Corporate Income Tax                             $894.2                  $863.3       $875.5            $12.2         -$18.7

    All Other Revenues                               $944.2                  $836.0       $928.8            $92.8         -$15.4

Gross GF Revenues                                 $14,032.0              $13,901.4      $13,839.4           -$62.0       -$192.6
                        1
Administrative Actions                                -$23.1                 -$23.1        -$23.1             $0.0          $0.0

Legislative Actions                                     $0.0                    $0.0         $0.0             $0.0          $0.0

Net Available Resources                           $14,008.9              $13,878.3      $13,816.3           -$62.0       -$192.6

Confidence Intervals
67% Confidence                              +/- 9.4%                                    $1,298.8       $12.54B to $15.14B
95% Confidence                             +/- 18.8%                                    $2,597.6       $11.24B to $16.44B
1 Reflects cost of cashflow management actions, ex clusiv e of internal borrow ing.


Personal Income Tax

Personal income tax collections were $1,770 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2011,
$22.3 million (1.3%) above the latest forecast. Compared to the year-ago level, total personal
income tax collections were up 16.7% relative to a forecast of 15.2% growth. Table B.8 in
Appendix B presents a comparison of actual and projected personal income tax revenues for the
fourth quarter of fiscal year 2011.

The forecast for total personal income tax receipts during the current biennium was reduced by
$167 million from the May forecast. This revision can be traced to weaker expectations for
growth in taxable labor income and a wide range of investment income. Due to the recent decline
in stock market wealth and interest rates, the outlook has deteriorated for taxable capital gains,
retirement income, investment income and dividends.
Corporate Income Tax

Corporate income taxes equaled $175 million for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2011, $19.9
million below the May forecast. Quarterly corporate receipts were 4.4% higher than figures from
a year ago. Given the overestimate of corporate income taxes, no kicker payment will be
generated for the 2009-11 biennium. Table B.8 in Appendix B presents a comparison of actual
and projected corporate income tax revenues for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2011.

Corporate profits, and associated tax collections, are cooling off rapidly after reaching record
highs. Profits and corporate tax collections are notoriously volatile, with collections often cut in
half in the year immediately following profit booms. The expectation for a sharp correction in
corporate income tax collections over the coming year was built into the May forecast. As a
result, the September outlook was revised downward only modestly ($18.7 million) due to a
downgraded outlook for sales. When legislative actions are included, corporate tax collections
are expected to be $12.2 million higher than what was reflected in the May outlook.


                                                                           68
Non-income Tax Sources of Revenue

All other revenues will total $929 million for the biennium, an increase of $93 million (11.1%)
from the prior forecast. The improved outlook for non-income tax sources of general fund
revenue can be traced to legislative actions. Excluding legislative actions, the forecast for other
revenues has been reduced by $15.4 million (1.8%) lower than expected collections of
inheritance taxes. Although collections of inheritance taxes are not closely tied to
contemporaneous economic activity, falling asset prices and federal tax law changes contributed
to the low revenues.

B.         Extended General Fund Revenue Outlook

Table R.2 exhibits the long-run forecast for General Fund revenues through the 2019-21
biennium. Users should note that the potential for error in the forecast increases substantially the
further ahead we look.

Table R.2
General Fund Revenue Forecast Summary (Millions of Dollars, Current Law)

                                  Forecast              Forecast               Forecast              Forecast               Forecast              Forecast
                                  2009-11        %       2011-13        %       2013-15        %      2015-17        %      2017-19           %   2019-21     %
Revenue Source                   Biennium Chg Biennium Chg                     Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg Biennium Chg


Personal Income Taxes             10,467.2      3.7% 12,035.1         15.0% 13,881.0 15.3% 15,692.8 13.1% 17,353.3 10.6% 19,247.5                            10.9%

Corporate Income Taxes                827.6 20.9%           875.5      5.8%      1,131.8 29.3%          1,112.3 -1.7%         1,126.6     1.3%     1,206.7   7.1%

All Others                          1,226.9 29.3%           928.8 -24.3%           919.6 -1.0%            971.2     5.6%      1,021.9     5.2%     1,102.2   7.9%

Total General Fund                12,521.7      6.8% 13,839.4         10.5% 15,932.4 15.1% 17,776.3 11.6% 19,501.8                        9.7% 21,556.4      10.5%

Kicker Distributions                    -                     -                       -                    -                      -                   -

Total Revenue                     12,521.7 -2.2% 13,839.4             10.5% 15,932.4 15.1% 17,776.3 11.6% 19,501.8                        9.7% 21,556.4      10.5%

Other tax es include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Sev erance Tax , Western Oregon Sev erance Tax and Amusement Dev ice Tax .
Commercial Fish Licenses & Fees and Pari-mutual Receipts are included in Other Rev enues



General Fund revenues will total $15,932 million in 2013-15, an increase of 15.1% percent from
the prior period, and $206 million (1.3%) below the May forecast. In 2015-17, revenue growth
will moderate to 11.6%, followed by 12.0% growth in 2017-19 and slower rates of around 10%
to in subsequent biennia. The slowdown in long-run revenue growth is largely due to the impact
of demographic changes. Revenues in 2015-17 and beyond are expected to be smaller than in the
May forecast, largely due to the downgraded outlook for job growth. Table B.2 in Appendix
presents a more detailed look at the long-term General Fund revenue forecast

C.         Tax Law Assumptions

The revenue forecast is based on existing law, including actions signed into law during the 2011
Oregon Legislative Session. OEA makes routine adjustments to the forecast to account for
legislative and other actions not factored into the personal and corporate income tax models.
These adjustments can include expected kicker refunds, when applicable, as well as any tax law


                                                                                 69
changes not yet present in the historical data. A summary of actions taken during the 2011
Legislative Session can be found in Appendix B Table B.3.

Although based on current law, many of the tax policies that impact the revenue forecast are not
set in stone. In particular, sunset dates for many large tax credits have been scheduled. As credits
are allowed to disappear, considerable support is lent to the revenue outlook in the outer years of
the forecast. To the extent that tax credits are extended and not allowed to expire when their
sunset dates arrive, the outlook for revenue growth will be reduced.

D.          Forecast Risks

The latest revenue forecast for the current biennium represents the most probable outcome given
available information. OEA feels that it is important that anyone using this forecast for decision-
making purposes recognize the potential for actual revenues to depart significantly from this
projection.

Currently, the overwhelming risk facing the revenue outlook is the threat that the U.S. economy
will slip back into recession in the near term. Such a scenario, however it played out, would
result in drastic revenue losses.

OEA’s current thinking is that a near-term recession would look relatively mild relative to the
last two business cycles. Households and firms have already buckled down considerably, with
few identifiable imbalances similar to the stock market and housing bubbles that were corrected
by the last two cycles. In the recessionary scenario presented here, it is assumed that Oregon will
give back all of the jobs it has gained since the end of 2009.

Should a recession of this nature ensue, FY2011-13 biennial income tax revenues would be
reduced on the order $800 million, and FY2013-15 biennial revenues would be reduced by
around $1.1 billion.

Table R.2b
                                         R.2b Alternative Scenarios for Major General Fund Revenues

                                                                                     Compared to Baseline                              Growth Rates
                                                          Baseline        Pessimistic Losses Optimistic          Gains        Baseline Pessimistic Optimistic
Personal Income Taxes
($ thousands)                               FY 2011       5,524,015         5,524,015        0      5,524,015       0
                                            FY 2012       5,839,415         5,671,184    -168,231   5,957,341    117,926        5.7%         2.7%          7.8%
                                            FY 2013       6,195,690         5,653,736    -541,955   6,537,548    341,858        6.1%         -0.3%         9.7%
                                            FY 2014       6,653,893         6,172,744    -481,150   7,047,966    394,072        7.4%         9.2%          7.8%
                                            FY 2015       7,227,081         6,726,310    -500,772   7,644,459    417,377        8.6%         9.0%          8.5%

Corporate Excise Taxes
($ thousands)                               FY 2011        468,606          468,606          0       468,606        0
                                            FY 2012        429,669          381,322      -48,347     450,981     21,312         -8.3%       -18.6%        -3.8%
                                            FY 2013        445,848          391,756      -54,093     479,523     33,675         3.8%         2.7%          6.3%
                                            FY 2014        549,235          490,976      -58,259     584,816     35,581         23.2%        25.3%        22.0%
                                            FY 2015        582,557          524,252      -58,305     617,168     34,612         6.1%         6.8%          5.5%



Note: Optimistic and Pessimistic alternatives do not reflect statistical ranges, but rather likely scenarios for near term business cycles that are stronger/weaker than the baseline.




                                                                                        70
E.       Lottery Earnings Forecast

Table R.3 presents a summary of lottery earnings and distribution for the 2011-13 biennium.
Projected lottery earnings will total $1,121.7 million, a decrease of $6.6 million from the prior
forecast. Overall lackluster collections stem from video lottery sales, which dominate overall
lottery earnings. Although growth has been relatively slow, lottery revenues have stabilized and
returned to continued growth the past year, across nearly all games. Revenue fell sharply in the
wake of the recession and enactment of the smoking ban. Including the beginning balance and
other earnings, total available resources equal $1,124.4 million. After adjusting for programs that
receive a strict percentage of lottery transfers and incorporating changes to distributions made
during the 2011 session, the current forecast for the ending balance is $23.1 million.

The extended outlook for lottery earnings can be found in Table B.9 in Appendix B. It is critical
to note that the earnings reflected in Table B.9 include a transfer rate pertaining to video lottery
of 65.1 percent as opposed to the 62.4 percent rate. The Lottery has applied this transfer rate on
sales since July 1, 2009.

Over the extended forecast horizon, video lottery sales are expected to grow at rates similar to
overall consumer spending. This has not been the case in past years, with gains in video lottery
having outstripped spending on other items throughout their history. Eventually as video games
lose some of their novelty, sales growth will slow to more sustainable levels.

Table R.3
2011-13 Lottery Fund Forecast Summary
                                                                                               Changes from:
                                               Close of 2011   May 2011     Sept 2011     May 2011 Close of 2011
                                                    Session    Forecast     Forecast      Forecast        Session
Transfers of Lottery Earnings
    Traditional Games                                 $128.5      $128.5       $128.3           -$0.2             -$0.2
    Video Lottery                                     $991.8      $991.8       $985.4           -$6.4             -$6.4
    Administrative Savings                              $8.0         $8.0        $8.0            $0.0              $0.0
    Total Transfers                                 $1,128.3     $1,128.3    $1,121.7           -$6.6             -$6.6

Economic Development Fund
    Beginning Balance                                   $0.2         $0.2        $0.2            $0.0              $0.0
    Transfers from Lottery                          $1,128.3     $1,128.3    $1,121.7           -$6.6             -$6.6
     Other earnings1                                    $2.5         $1.1        $2.5            $1.4              $0.0
     Total Available Resources                      $1,131.0     $1,129.6    $1,124.4           -$5.2             -$6.6


     Dedicated Distributions2                        $432.9       $435.7       $430.7           -$5.0             -$2.2
     Other Legislatively Adopted Allocations          $670.6      $264.1       $670.6          $406.6              $0.0
     Total Distributions                            $1,103.5      $699.7     $1,101.3          $401.6             -$2.2

     Ending Balance                                    $27.5      $429.9        $23.1         -$406.8             -$4.4
Footnotes:
1. Includes interest earnings and reversions.
2. Includes the Education Stability Fund (18% ), the Parks and Natural Resources Fund (15% ), and Debt Service.




                                                          71
F.       Overview of Budgetary Reserves

The state currently administers two general reserve accounts, the Oregon Rainy Day Fund
(ORDF) and the Education Stability Fund (ESF). This section updates balances and recalculates
the outlook for these funds based on the September revenue forecast.

Oregon Rainy Day Fund and Education Stability Fund

Established by the 2007 Legislature, the ORDF is funded from ending balances each biennium,
up to one percent of appropriations. The Legislature can deposit additional funds, as it did in first
populating the ORDF with surplus corporate income tax revenues from the 2005-07 biennium.
The ORDF also retains interest earnings. Withdrawals from the ORDF require one of three
triggers, including a decline in employment, a projected budgetary shortfall, or declaration of a
state of emergency, plus a three-fifths vote. Withdrawals are capped at two-thirds of the balance
as of the beginning of the biennium in question. Fund balances are capped at 7.5 percent of
General Fund revenues in the prior biennium.

The ESF gained its current reserve structure and mechanics via constitutional amendment in
2002. The ESF receives 18 percent of lottery earnings 2 , deposited on a quarterly basis. The ESF
does not retain interest earnings. The ESF has similar triggers as the ORDF (in fact, the ORDF
was modeled on the ESF), but does not have the two-thirds cap on withdrawals. The ESF balance
is capped at five percent of General Fund revenues collected in the prior biennium.

Budgetary Reserve Outlook

Table R.4 presents projected balances for the ORDF and ESF. Under current law, $200 million
will have been transferred to the State School Fund during 2009-11 from the State’s two reserve
funds. The ORDF ended the 2009-11 BN with a balance of $10.4 million. The final 2009-11
General Fund ending balance was $35.2 million and was transferred to the ORDF at the
beginning of the 2011-13 biennium.

The ESF balance was nearly completely withdrawn at the end of 2009-11, leaving an ending
balance of $5.1 million. During 2011-13, projected deposits total $192.4 million, while
scheduled withdrawals total $182.8 million. Given these projections, by the end of 2011-13, the
ESF will total $15.2 million. Table B.10 in Appendix B provides detailed information for
Oregon’s budgetary reserves.




     2
       Five percent of these transfers are deposited to the Oregon Growth sub‐account.  Due to the illiquid nature 
of this sub‐account, only funds in the main account are included in the figures presented here. 


                                                        72
Table R.4
Oregon's Budgetary Reserves
                                                 2009-11               2011-13              2013-15
(Millions)                                     Biennium              Biennium             Biennium
Rainy Day Fund
     Beginning Balance                              $112.5                 $10.4                $46.1
                   3
    Net Deposits                                   -$103.4                 $35.2               $197.5
    Interest                                          $1.3                  $0.5                 $5.4
                   1
    Ending Balance                                   $10.4                 $46.1               $249.0

Education Stability Fund
   Beginning Balance                                  $0.0                 $5.1                 $15.2
   Net Deposits                                     $101.4               $192.4                $197.6
             2
    Interest                                          $1.0                 $0.5                  $4.6
    Withdrawals                                     -$97.4              -$182.8                 -$4.6
    Ending Balance                                    $5.1                $15.2                $212.8

Total Reserves                                       $15.5                 $61.3               $461.8

Footnotes:
1. Under current law , only 2/3rds of the beginning balance is av ailable for w ithdraw al. Withdraw al
subject to economic and financial triggers.
2. Education Stability Fund interest is distributed to the Oregon Education Fund (75%) and the State
Scholarship Commission (25%).
3. Includes transfer of ending General Fund balances, up to 1% of budgeted appropriations, as w ell
as priv ate donations.




                                                                   73
G.      September 2011 Forecast Addendum – Close of Session Forecast

The 2011 Close of Session forecast consists of the May 2011 forecast, adjusted for revenue-
related actions taken during the 2011 Legislative Session and subsequently signed into law by
the Governor. The 2011 COS forecast provides the revenue context on which the 2011-13
legislatively adopted budget is based, as well as the baseline for corporate and personal kicker
threshold calculations.

Table 1 compares the May 2011 and Close of Session forecasts. General Fund revenues equal
$14,032.0 million which equals the $13,901.4 million from the May forecast, plus $130.6 million
in additional revenues resulting from actions taken during the 2011 legislative session. Table 2
compares the forecasts by year and revenue source. A detailed listing of the impact of individual
legislative actions appears in Table 3. While there were numerous changes, many are relatively
small in terms of overall revenue and/or designed to offset one another.

There are two potential kicker rebates: one for corporate income tax; and one for all other
General Fund revenues (primarily personal income tax). Kicker rebates can be triggered if actual
revenue collections for the 2011-13 biennium exceed the COS forecast by two percent or more.
Two percent for the corporate kicker is $17.9 million, for a kicker threshold of $912.1 million.
The personal kicker includes personal income tax and other revenues, which total $13,137.4
million. Two percent of that is $262.8 million, for a personal kicker threshold of $13,400.5
million.

TABLE 1 - 2011-13 Close of Session Forecast

General Fund                                         2011 COS           May 2011          Change from
(Millions)                                            Forecast          Forecast             May

  Beginning Balance                                              $0.0              $0.0           $0.0

  Personal Income Tax                                      $12,193.6        $12,202.1            -$8.5

  Corporate Income Tax                                       $894.2           $863.3             $30.9

  Other Revenues                                             $944.2           $836.0            $108.2

Total GF Resources                                         $14,032.0        $13,901.4           $130.6




                                                74
     Table 2
     General Fund Revenue Statement -- 2011-13 Close of Session
                                                           Forecasts Dated: 5/12/2011                                     Forecasts Dated: COS                          Difference
                                                                                         Total                                                     Total
                                                2011-12            2012-13              2011-13           2011-12               2012-13           2011-13          COS Less 5/12/2011

     Taxes
      Personal Income Taxes (Before Kicker)     5,918,883,000       6,283,195,000       12,202,078,000    5,924,553,000         6,269,000,000    12,193,553,000           (8,525,000)
        Implicit Kicker Offset                                                                       0                                                        0                    0
      Corporate Income Taxes (Before Kicker)     421,250,000         442,073,000           863,323,000     439,665,000           454,578,000        894,243,000           30,920,000
      Insurance Taxes                             48,784,000          51,474,000           100,258,000      48,784,000            51,474,000        100,258,000                    0
      Estate Taxes                                95,612,000          94,672,000           190,284,000      95,612,000            94,672,000        190,284,000                    0
      Cigarette Taxes                             37,611,000          36,633,000            74,244,000      37,611,000            36,633,000         74,244,000                    0
      Other Tobacco Products Taxes                28,745,000          29,841,000            58,586,000      28,745,000            29,841,000         58,586,000                    0
      Other Taxes                                    670,000             657,000             1,327,000         670,000               657,000          1,327,000                    0

     Fines and Fees
       State Court Fees                           27,117,000          27,989,000            55,106,000      43,420,000            44,817,000         88,237,000           33,131,000




75
       Secretary of State Fees                    23,023,000          24,016,000            47,039,000      23,023,000            24,016,000         47,039,000                    0
       Criminal Fines & Assessments               31,632,000          26,766,000            58,398,000      43,657,000            36,941,000         80,598,000           22,200,000
       Securities Fees                             9,378,000           9,692,000            19,070,000       9,378,000             9,692,000         19,070,000                    0

     Central Service Charges                       5,576,000           5,576,000            11,152,000       5,576,000             5,576,000         11,152,000                      0

     Liquor Apportionment                         91,820,000          95,568,000          187,388,000       91,820,000            95,568,000        187,388,000                      0

     Interest Earnings                             6,700,000          10,653,000            17,353,000       4,460,000             5,453,000          9,913,000            (7,440,000)

     Miscellaneous Revenues                        7,800,000           8,000,000            15,800,000       7,800,000             8,000,000         15,800,000                      0

     One-time Transfers                                    0                   0                     0       2,200,000            58,100,000         60,300,000           60,300,000

     Gross General Fund Revenues                6,754,601,000       7,146,805,000       13,901,406,000    6,806,974,000         7,225,018,000    14,031,992,000          130,586,000
     Net General Fund Revenues                  6,754,601,000       7,146,805,000       13,901,406,000    6,806,974,000         7,225,018,000    14,031,992,000          130,586,000
     Plus Beginning Balance                                                                          0                                                        0                    0
     Less Anticipated Administrative Actions*                                              (23,135,600)                                             (23,135,600)                   0
     Plus Legislatively Adopted Actions**                                                            0                                                                             0
     Available Resources                                                                13,878,270,400                                           14,008,856,400          130,586,000
     Legislatively Adopted Budget                                                                                                                13,562,594,263           NA
     Plus Administrative Actions
     Projected Expenditures                                                                                                                       13,562,594,263          NA
     Estimated Ending Balance                                                              NA                                                    446,262,137              NA
Table 3 - Summary of 2011 Legislative Session Adjustments
                                                                  Biennia                       Staff Measure   Revenue Impact
                                              2011-13   2013-15   2015-17   2017-19   2019-21     Summary         Statement
Personal Income Tax Impacts (Millions)
Tax Law Change
  Farmworker Credit - HB 2154                  -$0.01    -$0.01     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2154        HB   2154
  BETC Administration - HB 2523                 $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2523        HB   2523
  529 College Savings - HB 2728                 $0.00    -$0.03    -$0.03    -$0.03    -$0.03     HB   2528        HB   2528
  Diesel Engine Tax Credit - HB 3170            $0.22     $0.12     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3170        HB   3170
  Net Operating Loss - HB 3454                  $0.80     $0.50     $0.40     $0.26     $0.17     HB   3454        HB   3454
  BETC Clarification - HB 3606                  $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3606        HB   3606
  Tax Credits - HB 3672                                                                           HB   3672        HB   3672
      BETC                                      $7.90   $6.40   $3.20   $2.00           $1.80
      Biomass                                  -$3.60  -$7.60  -$8.30  -$4.65           $0.00
      E-commerce Zone                          -$0.01  -$0.02  -$0.02  -$0.01           $0.00
      Film & Video                             -$6.00 -$12.00 -$12.00  -$7.00          -$0.20
      Fish Screening                           -$0.02  -$0.04  -$0.04  -$0.02           $0.00
      Oregon Investment Advantage               $0.00  -$0.10  -$0.05  -$0.02          -$0.01
      Renewables                               -$2.00  -$2.25  -$2.25  -$1.13           $0.00
      Conservation                             -$2.30  -$6.60  -$8.20  -$7.70          -$3.50
      Transportation                           -$1.00  -$1.90  -$1.70  -$0.70          -$0.25
      RETC                                     -$7.60 -$21.20 -$28.40 -$20.50           $0.00
  Federal Reconnect - SB 301 (3/11 base)        $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00           $0.00      SB 301           SB 301
  Community Jobs Initiative - SB 817            $0.00  -$4.60 -$23.30 -$25.50          -$7.60      SB 817           SB 817
Compliance Bills
  Tax Preparers E-file - HB 2071                $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB 2071          HB 2071
  DOR Enforcement - HB 5040                     $5.50     $5.60     $5.60     $5.60     $5.60                      HB 5040

Personal Income Tax Total                      -$8.13 -$43.73 -$75.09 -$59.40          -$4.02

Corporate Income Tax Impacts (Millions)
Tax Law Change
  Farmworker Credit - HB 2154                  -$0.02    -$0.02     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2154        HB   2154
  BETC Administration - HB 2523                 $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2523        HB   2523
  Housing Lender Tax Credit - HB 2527           $0.00    -$2.80    -$5.20    -$7.70    -$6.10     HB   2527        HB   2527
  Agriculture Cooperative Min Tax - HB 3058    -$1.40    -$1.40    -$1.40    -$1.40    -$1.40     HB   3058        HB   3058
  Diesel Engine Tax Credit - HB 3170            $0.09     $0.08     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3170        HB   3170
  BETC Clarification - HB 3606                  $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3606        HB   3606
  Tax Credits - HB 3672                                                                           HB   3672        HB   3672
      BETC                                     $11.90    $10.00   $4.80   $3.10         $2.50
      Biomass                                  -$0.30    -$0.60  -$0.70  -$0.50         $0.00
      Fire Insurance                           -$0.80    -$1.60  -$1.60  -$1.30         $0.00
      E-commerce Zone                          -$0.04    -$0.08  -$0.08  -$0.06         $0.00
      Long-Term Rural EZ                       -$0.10    -$0.20  -$0.20  -$0.10         $0.00
      R&D                                      -$0.80    -$1.70  -$2.10  -$1.70         $0.00
      Film & Video                             -$0.20    -$0.40  -$0.40  -$0.20         $0.00
      Fish Screening                           -$0.01    -$0.01  -$0.01  -$0.01         $0.00
      Oregon Investment Advantage               $0.00    -$0.10  -$0.05  -$0.02         $0.00
      Renewables                               -$0.50    -$0.75  -$0.75  -$0.38         $0.00
      Conservation                             -$3.20    -$9.60 -$12.10 -$10.60        -$3.50
      Transportation                           -$1.30    -$2.90  -$2.60  -$0.90        -$0.20
  Federal Reconnect - SB 301 (3/11 base)        $0.00     $0.00   $0.00   $0.00         $0.00      SB 301           SB 301
  Community Jobs Initiative - SB 817            $0.00    -$0.70  -$5.50  -$6.50        -$2.50      SB 817           SB 817
Compliance Bills
  Tax Preparers E-file - HB 2071                $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB 2071          HB 2071
  DOR Enforcement - HB 5040                     $9.20     $9.40     $9.40     $9.40     $9.40                      HB 5040
  Other Transfers - SB 939                     $18.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00      SB 939          SB 939

Corporate Income Tax Total                     $30.52    -$3.38 -$18.49 -$18.86        -$1.80

Other Tax/Revenue Impacts (Millions)
  Other Transfers - SB 939                     $58.10   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00             SB 939           SB 939
  Inheritance Tax - HB 2541                     $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00             HB 2541          HB 2541
  Court Fees - HB 2710                         $33.13 $40.43 $42.83 $45.40 $47.50                 HB 2710          HB 2710
  Criminal Fine Account - HB 2712              $22.20 $20.71 $22.05 $23.50 $25.50                 HB 2712          HB 2712
  OUS Interest Earnings - SB 242               -$7.44 -$22.00 -$32.00 -$34.00 -$34.00             SB 242           SB 242
  OLCC Transfers - SB 5522                      $2.20   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00                              SB 5522

Other Tax Total                               $108.19    $39.14    $32.88    $34.90    $39.00

Overall Total                                 $130.59    -$7.97 -$60.70 -$43.36        $33.19




                                                           76
APPENDIX A:                ECONOMIC FORECAST DETAIL


  Table A.1 Annual Forecast 1 ................................................................................................ 78

  Table A.2 Quarterly Forecast 1............................................................................................. 83




                                                             77
Table A.1 Annual Forecast 1

TABLE A.1
Sep 2011 - Personal Income
(Billions of Current Dollars)

                        2009           2010        2011         2012         2013            2014        2015        2016        2017        2018        2019        2020
Total Personal Income*
Oregon                 138.5           142.2       148.6        155.5        162.9        172.4          182.7       193.6       203.9       213.8       224.4       235.6
  % Ch                   (0.6)           2.7         4.5          4.7          4.8          5.8            6.0         6.0         5.3         4.9         5.0         5.0
U.S.                12,174.9        12,541.0    13,139.9     13,581.3     14,151.3     14,971.0       15,828.0    16,723.8    17,562.8    18,403.0    19,287.0    20,226.3
  % Ch                   (1.7)           3.0         4.8          3.4          4.2          5.8            5.7         5.7         5.0         4.8         4.8         4.9

Wage and Salary
Oregon                    70.2          71.3        74.0         77.9         82.1            86.4        91.1        95.9       100.7       105.2       109.9       114.7
  % Ch                    (5.2)          1.5         3.7          5.3          5.4             5.3         5.4         5.3         5.0         4.5         4.5         4.4
U.S.                   6,274.1       6,398.9     6,625.2      6,924.0      7,228.5         7,562.1     7,918.0     8,282.0     8,641.1     8,993.8     9,355.9     9,730.8
  % Ch                    (4.3)          2.0         3.5          4.5          4.4             4.6         4.7         4.6         4.3         4.1         4.0         4.0

Other Labor Income
Oregon                    17.5          18.1        18.8         19.6         20.5            21.6        22.7        23.9        25.0        26.2        27.3        28.5
  % Ch                     0.6           3.1         4.0          4.5          4.6             5.0         5.4         5.1         4.8         4.5         4.3         4.3
U.S.                   1,072.0       1,106.9     1,140.2      1,185.0      1,238.8         1,305.9     1,376.7     1,446.0     1,513.7     1,579.1     1,643.7     1,711.3
  % Ch                     3.4           3.2         3.0          3.9          4.5             5.4         5.4         5.0         4.7         4.3         4.1         4.1

Nonfarm Proprietor's Income
Oregon                   10.0           10.4        10.9         11.4         12.0            12.5        13.0        13.7        14.3        15.0        15.7        16.4
  % Ch                   (5.2)           4.0         4.7          5.2          4.4             4.7         4.2         4.9         4.9         4.6         4.7         4.7
U.S.                    981.5        1,010.1     1,060.8      1,118.5      1,176.8         1,242.8     1,306.6     1,380.2     1,459.3     1,541.3     1,629.3     1,723.3
  % Ch                   (6.6)           2.9         5.0          5.4          5.2             5.6         5.1         5.6         5.7         5.6         5.7         5.8

Dividend, Interest and Rent
Oregon                    28.2          28.4        29.9         31.3         32.5            34.4        36.9        39.0        40.9        42.5        44.4        46.6
  % Ch                    (4.0)          0.9         5.0          4.8          3.8             6.0         7.1         5.8         4.9         3.8         4.6         4.9
U.S.                   2,193.7       2,208.5     2,330.0      2,445.1      2,562.1         2,758.8     3,008.1     3,220.5     3,402.4     3,570.5     3,758.5     3,967.2
  % Ch                    (5.9)          0.7         5.5          4.9          4.8             7.7         9.0         7.1         5.6         4.9         5.3         5.6

Transfer Payments
Oregon                    26.9          28.7        29.3         30.2         31.6            33.9        36.2        39.1        41.6        43.9        46.7        49.7
   % Ch                   18.3           6.6         2.1          3.2          4.5             7.4         6.8         7.8         6.4         5.6         6.4         6.4
U.S.                   2,096.8       2,259.0     2,335.6      2,402.6      2,498.4         2,668.8     2,842.7     3,052.9     3,246.1     3,454.0     3,671.7     3,904.4
   % Ch                   14.4           7.7         3.4          2.9          4.0             6.8         6.5         7.4         6.3         6.4         6.3         6.3

Contributions for Social Security
Oregon                    12.4         12.8        12.2          13.1         13.8           14.5        15.1        15.7        16.3        16.2        16.8        17.4
  % Ch                     (2.5)        3.1        (4.5)          6.8          5.3            5.0         4.7         3.7         4.0        (0.6)        3.5         3.4
U.S.                     509.7        524.7       435.4         583.8        641.8          663.2       722.1       755.6       797.0       835.0       874.1       914.6
  % Ch                     (1.4)        2.9       (17.0)         34.1          9.9            3.3         8.9         4.6         5.5         4.8         4.7         4.6

Residence Adjustment
Oregon                    (2.1)         (2.2)       (2.2)        (2.2)        (2.3)           (2.4)       (2.5)       (2.6)       (2.8)       (3.2)       (3.3)       (3.4)
  % Ch                   (16.6)          3.3         0.5          0.2          5.0             5.1         5.4         5.1         4.7        15.2         3.7         3.5

Farm Proprietor's Income
Oregon                     0.1          0.3          0.2          0.2          0.3            0.4          0.4         0.4         0.4         0.5         0.5         0.5
   % Ch                  (71.9)       161.4        (38.1)        48.5         26.2           13.5          6.5         4.3         2.6        29.3         1.2         0.5

Per Capita Income (Thousands of $)
Oregon                  36.3            37.0        38.4         39.8         41.3           43.2        45.2         47.3       49.2         51.0       52.9        54.8
  % Ch                  (1.4)            2.1         3.7          3.7          3.7            4.6         4.7          4.7        4.0          3.6        3.7         3.7
U.S.                    39.5            40.3        41.9         42.9         44.2           46.3        48.5         50.8       52.8         54.8       56.9        59.1
  % Ch                  (2.6)            2.0         3.8          2.4          3.2            4.8         4.7          4.7        4.0          3.8        3.8         3.9

* Personal Income includes all classes of income minus Contributions for Social Security




                                                                                      78
TABLE A.1
Sep 2011 - Employment By Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)

                         2009        2010      2011      2012       2013           2014       2015       2016       2017       2018       2019       2020
Total Nonfarm
Oregon                1,612.9     1,599.8    1,628.8   1,663.8    1,702.2        1,743.3    1,785.6    1,825.1    1,859.0    1,888.5    1,914.4    1,938.6
  % Ch                   (6.2)       (0.8)       1.8       2.1        2.3            2.4        2.4        2.2        1.9        1.6        1.4        1.3
U.S.                    130.8       129.8      131.3     133.3      135.3          137.9      140.6      143.0      144.9      146.3      147.5      148.8
   % Ch                  (4.4)       (0.7)       1.1       1.6        1.5            1.9        1.9        1.7        1.3        1.0        0.8        0.9

 Private Nonfarm
 Oregon               1,313.4     1,300.3    1,335.2   1,373.9    1,410.6        1,449.4    1,489.4    1,526.2    1,557.0    1,583.1    1,605.9    1,625.3
    % Ch                 (7.6)       (1.0)       2.7       2.9        2.7            2.8        2.8        2.5        2.0        1.7        1.4        1.2
 U.S.                   108.2       107.3      109.2     111.4      113.3          115.7      118.2      120.4      122.0      123.2      124.2      125.1
     % Ch                (5.3)       (0.8)       1.7       2.0        1.6            2.1        2.2        1.9        1.3        1.0        0.8        0.8

   Natural Resources and Mining
   Oregon                6.8          6.7        6.9       7.1        7.2            7.2        7.1        7.1        7.1        7.0        7.0        6.9
     % Ch              (21.3)        (1.6)       2.8       3.2        1.6           (0.8)      (0.6)      (0.5)      (0.5)      (0.6)      (0.5)      (0.7)
   U.S.                  0.7          0.7        0.8       0.8        0.8            0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.6        0.6        0.6
      % Ch              (9.4)         1.6        9.5      (0.9)      (2.0)          (3.0)      (3.7)      (2.4)      (2.2)      (3.1)      (2.6)      (1.8)

   Construction
   Oregon                 74.1       67.7      69.0      69.7       71.9           79.0       85.6       91.0       94.6       96.3       97.4       98.5
     % Ch                (21.3)      (8.6)      1.9       0.9        3.2            9.9        8.4        6.3        3.9        1.8        1.1        1.2
   U.S.                    6.0        5.5       5.5       5.3        5.7            6.4        7.0        7.5        7.8        8.0        8.1        8.2
      % Ch               (16.0)      (8.1)     (1.0)     (3.8)       7.5           13.1       10.2        6.5        3.8        2.2        1.6        1.6

   Manufacturing
   Oregon               167.2      163.8      167.7     172.4      178.2          181.8      184.8      187.4      190.5      194.4      196.9      198.6
     % Ch               (14.3)      (2.0)       2.4       2.8        3.4            2.0        1.7        1.4        1.6        2.0        1.3        0.8
   U.S.                  11.8       11.5       11.7      12.1       12.4           12.6       12.7       12.7       12.7       12.8       12.8       12.8
      % Ch              (11.6)      (2.7)       1.8       3.0        2.6            1.3        0.8        0.2        0.2        0.5        0.3       (0.2)

       Durable Manufacturing
       Oregon         117.9        114.8      118.6     124.2      129.7          132.8      135.5      137.7      140.2      143.4      145.5      146.8
          % Ch        (17.4)        (2.7)       3.3       4.8        4.4            2.4        2.0        1.6        1.8        2.3        1.5        0.9
       U.S.             7.3          7.1        7.3       7.6        8.0            8.2        8.3        8.3        8.3        8.4        8.5        8.5
          % Ch        (13.9)        (2.9)       3.2       4.6        4.4            2.4        1.5        0.5        0.3        0.7        0.6        0.0

          Wood Products
          Oregon        21.0         19.9      19.0      20.1       21.6           23.2       23.9       24.1       24.4       24.6       24.7       24.8
            % Ch       (21.5)        (4.9)     (4.5)      5.3        7.8            7.3        3.0        1.1        1.1        0.7        0.5        0.4
          U.S.           0.4          0.3       0.3       0.4        0.5            0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5
             % Ch      (21.3)        (4.8)     (0.6)     13.9       19.7            6.7        2.1       (0.7)      (0.3)       0.8        0.7        0.2

          M etal and M achinery
          Oregon          32.0       31.1      33.3      35.1       35.9           36.2       36.6       37.3       38.2       39.1       39.4       39.5
             % Ch        (17.6)      (2.7)      7.0       5.4        2.5            0.8        0.9        1.9        2.6        2.2        0.8        0.2
          U.S.             2.7        2.6       2.8       2.9        3.0            3.1        3.1        3.2        3.2        3.2        3.3        3.3
             % Ch        (14.4)      (2.4)      5.4       3.7        3.2            2.9        2.3        1.7        0.9        0.5        0.8        0.6

          Computer and Electronic Products
          Oregon        35.4        35.0       36.2      37.6       39.2           39.1       39.7       40.6       41.6       43.1       44.0       44.7
            % Ch        (8.8)       (1.3)       3.6       3.6        4.4           (0.3)       1.5        2.3        2.5        3.5        2.1        1.7
          U.S.           1.1         1.1        1.1       1.2        1.2            1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.3        1.3
             % Ch       (8.6)       (3.2)       2.2       3.8        1.3           (1.6)       0.3        1.9        2.3        2.3        1.3        1.0

          Transportation Equipment
          Oregon          10.2       10.2      10.6      11.2       12.1           13.1       13.8       13.6       13.1       13.1       13.2       13.0
            % Ch         (32.3)      (0.1)      3.7       6.2        8.0            8.0        5.2       (1.7)      (3.0)      (0.3)       0.3       (1.3)
          U.S.             1.3        1.3       1.4       1.5        1.6            1.7        1.7        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6
             % Ch        (16.2)      (1.3)      3.4       7.3        6.9            5.2        1.7       (2.4)      (2.4)      (0.5)      (0.7)      (2.1)

          Other Durables
          Oregon          19.4       18.6      19.4      20.3       20.8           21.2       21.6       22.1       22.8        23.6      24.3       24.8
            % Ch         (17.3)      (4.1)      4.6       4.5        2.5            1.8        1.9        2.5        3.0         3.5       3.1        2.2
          U.S.             2.1        2.0       2.0       2.2        2.3            2.3        2.3        2.4        2.4         2.4       2.4        2.4
             % Ch        (14.6)      (4.6)      1.7       6.0        6.2            1.6        0.8        0.4        0.6         1.0       0.7        0.2




                                                                            79
TABLE A.1
Sep 2011 - Employment By Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)

                          2009      2010     2011     2012     2013         2014     2015     2016     2017     2018     2019     2020
      Nondurable Manufacturing
      Oregon         49.3      49.0           49.1     48.2     48.5         49.0     49.3     49.7     50.3     51.0     51.4     51.8
        % Ch          (5.8)    (0.5)           0.2     (1.9)     0.7          0.8      0.8      0.8      1.2      1.3      0.9      0.6
      U.S.                  4.6       4.5      4.4      4.5      4.4          4.4      4.4      4.4      4.4      4.4      4.4      4.3
         % Ch              (7.6)     (2.3)    (0.3)     0.3     (0.3)        (0.7)    (0.5)    (0.3)     0.1      0.2     (0.4)    (0.6)

          Food M anufacturing
          Oregon        23.3         24.1     25.1     23.9     24.2         24.5     24.8     25.1     25.5     25.9     26.1     26.4
            % Ch         (0.5)        3.4      4.3     (4.6)     1.2          1.1      1.1      1.4      1.5      1.5      1.1      1.0
          U.S.            1.5         1.4      1.5      1.5      1.5          1.5      1.5      1.5      1.6      1.6      1.6      1.6
             % Ch        (1.6)       (0.6)     0.4      1.7      1.0          1.1      1.2      1.5      1.4      1.5      0.6      0.4

          Other Nondurable
          Oregon        26.0         25.0     24.1     24.3     24.3         24.5     24.6     24.6     24.9     25.1     25.3     25.4
            % Ch       (10.1)        (3.9)    (3.7)     0.9      0.3          0.6      0.4      0.3      0.9      1.1      0.6      0.3
          U.S.           3.1          3.0      3.0      3.0      3.0          2.9      2.9      2.9      2.8      2.8      2.8      2.8
             % Ch      (10.2)        (3.1)    (0.4)     0.1     (0.5)        (1.5)    (1.4)    (1.2)    (0.7)    (0.5)    (0.9)    (1.2)

   Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
   Oregon              312.2       308.2     315.0    322.6    329.1        335.0    341.2    347.5    353.2    357.7    360.3    361.2
     % Ch                (7.1)       (1.3)     2.2      2.4      2.0          1.8      1.9      1.9      1.6      1.3      0.7      0.2
   U.S.                 24.9        24.6      25.0     25.6     26.0         26.4     26.8     27.1     27.3     27.4     27.4     27.4
      % Ch               (5.3)       (1.2)     1.4      2.7      1.6          1.3      1.4      1.2      0.8      0.4      0.1      0.0

      Retail Trade
      Oregon              183.4    183.4     189.1    191.4    193.3        195.3    198.1    201.1    203.8    206.0    207.3    207.2
         % Ch              (6.8)    (0.0)      3.1      1.2      1.0          1.1      1.4      1.5      1.3      1.1      0.6     (0.0)
      U.S.                 14.5     14.4      14.5     14.8     14.9         15.0     15.1     15.2     15.1     15.1     15.1     15.0
         % Ch              (5.0)    (0.7)      0.9      1.6      1.1          0.4      0.7      0.3     (0.1)    (0.3)    (0.3)    (0.3)

      Wholesale Trade
      Oregon          75.3           72.7     73.0     76.2     78.2         80.3     82.1     83.7     85.0     85.8     86.5     87.0
         % Ch         (6.5)          (3.5)     0.5      4.4      2.6          2.6      2.3      2.0      1.5      1.0      0.8      0.7
      U.S.             5.6            5.5      5.6      5.8      5.9          6.0      6.1      6.3      6.3      6.4      6.5      6.5
         % Ch         (6.0)          (2.3)     2.1      3.7      1.8          2.1      2.0      2.0      1.5      1.0      0.8      0.6

      Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
      Oregon           53.5     52.1       52.8        55.0     57.6         59.3     61.0     62.7     64.5     65.9     66.6     66.9
         % Ch           (8.8)    (2.7)      1.5         4.1      4.7          3.0      2.8      2.9      2.8      2.2      1.0      0.5
      U.S.               4.8      4.7       4.9         5.1      5.2          5.4      5.5      5.7      5.8      5.9      5.9      5.9
         % Ch           (5.3)    (1.3)      2.5         4.7      2.8          2.9      3.0      2.8      2.3      1.5      0.4      0.2

   Information
   Oregon                  33.1      32.2     33.1     34.0     34.5         34.4     35.3     35.9     36.7     37.3     37.5     37.6
      % Ch                 (7.1)     (2.6)     2.7      2.9      1.3         (0.1)     2.4      1.8      2.3      1.6      0.5      0.3
   U.S.                     2.8       2.7      2.7      2.8      2.8          2.8      2.9      2.9      3.0      3.0      3.1      3.1
       % Ch                (6.0)     (3.3)    (0.1)     3.7      0.6         (0.5)     2.9      1.9      1.9      1.5      0.8      0.5

   Financial Activities
   Oregon                  95.7      92.7     94.0     96.9    100.3        100.6    101.1    101.5    101.6    101.7    101.8    101.8
      % Ch                 (6.1)     (3.1)     1.4      3.1      3.5          0.3      0.5      0.4      0.2      0.1      0.1      0.0
   U.S.                     7.8       7.6      7.6      7.7      7.8          7.7      7.7      7.7      7.7      7.6      7.6      7.5
      % Ch                 (4.6)     (1.8)    (0.1)     1.7      0.5         (0.8)    (0.1)    (0.3)    (0.4)    (0.9)    (0.6)    (0.1)

   Professional and Business S ervices
   Oregon              180.1      181.3      187.1    193.7    201.3        213.7    226.3    237.2    245.6    253.2    261.5    269.7
     % Ch                (8.2)       0.7       3.2      3.5      3.9          6.2      5.9      4.8      3.5      3.1      3.3      3.2
   U.S.                 16.6        16.7      17.3     17.9     18.4         19.4     20.4     21.3     22.0     22.7     23.4     24.1
      % Ch               (6.6)       0.7       3.6      3.6      2.9          5.3      5.3      4.4      3.2      2.9      3.1      3.0




                                                                       80
TABLE A.1
Sep 2011 - Employment By Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)

                        2009      2010     2011     2012     2013         2014     2015     2016     2017     2018     2019     2020
   Education and Health S ervices
   Oregon              223.6      228.4    235.7    243.4    249.7        256.4    263.7    272.1    279.4    286.7    293.3    299.4
     % Ch                1.8        2.1      3.2      3.3      2.6          2.7      2.8      3.2      2.7      2.6      2.3      2.0
   U.S.                 19.2       19.6     20.0     20.3     20.5         20.7     21.1     21.6     22.0     22.4     22.6     22.8
     % Ch                1.9        1.9      2.2      1.7      0.6          1.4      1.7      2.5      1.9      1.6      1.1      0.9

      Educational S ervices
      Oregon             30.7      31.4     32.0     32.6     32.8         33.0     33.4     33.7     34.1     34.5     34.9     35.4
         % Ch             1.6       2.5      1.9      1.8      0.5          0.9      1.0      1.0      1.0      1.3      1.2      1.3
      U.S.                3.1       3.1      3.2      3.2      3.1          3.0      3.0      3.0      2.9      2.9      2.9      2.8
         % Ch             1.6       1.9      2.4     (1.3)    (2.5)        (2.2)    (1.6)    (1.1)    (0.7)    (1.1)    (1.6)    (1.1)

      Health Care and S ocial Assistance
      Oregon          192.9       197.0    203.6    210.8    217.0        223.3    230.3    238.4    245.3    252.2    258.4    264.0
         % Ch            1.9        2.1      3.4      3.5      2.9          2.9      3.1      3.5      2.9      2.8      2.5      2.1
      U.S.             16.1        16.4     16.8     17.2     17.4         17.7     18.1     18.7     19.1     19.5     19.8     20.0
         % Ch            1.9        1.9      2.2      2.3      1.2          2.1      2.3      3.1      2.3      2.0      1.5      1.2

   Leisure and Hospitality
   Oregon              162.9     161.8     168.7    174.4    177.5        179.0    180.6    181.8    182.6    182.5    183.1    183.6
     % Ch                (5.7)    (0.7)      4.3      3.4      1.7          0.9      0.9      0.6      0.4     (0.1)     0.3      0.3
   U.S.                  13.1     13.0      13.2     13.4     13.5         13.4     13.4     13.4     13.4     13.3     13.3     13.2
     % Ch                (2.7)    (0.4)      1.5      1.7      0.3         (0.3)    (0.3)    (0.2)    (0.1)    (0.4)    (0.3)    (0.3)

   Other S ervices
   Oregon                57.7      57.5     58.0     59.6     61.0         62.4     63.7     64.7     65.6     66.3     67.1     67.9
     % Ch                (5.0)     (0.4)     1.0      2.7      2.3          2.4      2.0      1.7      1.3      1.0      1.2      1.2
   U.S.                   5.4       5.4      5.4      5.4      5.4          5.5      5.5      5.4      5.4      5.4      5.3      5.3
     % Ch                (2.7)     (0.0)     1.5      0.1     (0.1)         0.3     (0.2)    (0.4)    (0.4)    (0.7)    (0.9)    (0.5)

 Government
 Oregon                 299.5    299.5     293.7    290.0    291.6        293.9    296.2    298.8    302.1    305.3    308.5    313.3
    % Ch                  0.5     (0.0)     (1.9)    (1.3)     0.6          0.8      0.8      0.9      1.1      1.1      1.0      1.6
 U.S.                    22.6     22.5      22.1     21.9     22.0         22.2     22.4     22.7     22.9     23.1     23.3     23.7
    % Ch                  0.3     (0.3)     (1.9)    (0.8)     0.6          1.1      0.8      1.1      1.2      1.0      0.8      1.4

   Federal Government
   Oregon             30.0         30.4     27.9     27.5     27.4         27.2     27.0     26.9     26.8     26.9     26.9     28.5
     % Ch              1.4          1.5     (8.1)    (1.4)    (0.6)        (0.6)    (0.6)    (0.6)    (0.2)     0.3     (0.1)     6.2
   U.S.                2.8          3.0      2.8      2.8      2.7          2.6      2.6      2.5      2.5      2.5      2.5      2.6
     % Ch              2.5          4.8     (4.3)    (2.6)    (3.1)        (2.4)    (1.6)    (1.2)    (0.7)    (0.5)    (0.4)     5.5

   S tate Government
   Oregon                78.2      79.7     80.2     79.3     79.5         80.1     80.8     81.6     82.6     83.5     84.3     85.1
      % Ch                2.0       1.9      0.6     (1.1)     0.2          0.8      0.8      1.1      1.2      1.1      1.0      1.0

      Education S tate Government
      Oregon            29.0      29.8      31.1     31.3     31.5         31.7     32.1     32.6     33.2     33.8     34.4     35.1
        % Ch             2.3       2.8       4.5      0.6      0.5          0.9      1.2      1.5      1.7      2.0      1.9      1.9

   Local Government
   Oregon               191.4     189.4    185.6    183.1    184.8        186.6    188.4    190.3    192.7    194.9    197.3    199.7
     % Ch                (0.3)     (1.0)    (2.0)    (1.3)     0.9          1.0      1.0      1.0      1.2      1.2      1.2      1.2

      Education Local Government
      Oregon           102.8   100.2        96.8     95.7     97.4         98.8    100.1    101.5    102.9    104.3    105.8    107.3
        % Ch             0.5     (2.5)      (3.4)    (1.2)     1.7          1.4      1.3      1.4      1.4      1.4      1.4      1.4




                                                                     81
TABLE A.1
Sep 2011 - Other Economic Indicators

                                           2009        2010       2011        2012        2013         2014        2015       2016       2017       2018       2019        2020
GDP (Bil of 2005 $),
Chain Weight (in billions of $)        12,880.6    13,248.2   13,574.3    13,923.8   14,307.6     14,783.4     15,284.1   15,764.9   16,197.0   16,614.8   17,051.4    17,500.3
  % Ch                                     (2.6)        2.9        2.5         2.6        2.8          3.3          3.4        3.1        2.7        2.6        2.6         2.6

                                                                          Price and Wage Indicators
GDP Implicit Price Deflator,
 Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100             109.6       110.7      112.6       113.9       115.7         117.8      120.0      122.1      124.3      126.5      128.6       130.8
   % Ch                                    0.9         1.0        1.7         1.2         1.6           1.8        1.9        1.8        1.8        1.7        1.7         1.7

Personal Consumption Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100              109.3       111.1      113.6       115.5       117.4         119.6      122.0      124.5      127.0      129.4      131.8       134.2
   % Ch                                    0.2         1.7        2.3         1.6         1.7           1.9        2.0        2.0        2.0        2.0        1.8         1.8

CPI, Urban Consumers,
1982-84=100
Portland-Salem, OR-WA                    215.6       218.3      223.1       226.7       230.3         234.7      239.6      244.6      249.8      254.8      260.2       265.7
   % Ch                                    0.1         1.3        2.2         1.6         1.6           1.9        2.1        2.1        2.1        2.0        2.1         2.1
U.S.                                     214.5       218.1      224.6       228.6       233.0         237.5      242.4      247.6      252.6      257.6      262.4       267.1
   % Ch                                   (0.3)        1.6        3.0         1.8         1.9           2.0        2.0        2.1        2.0        2.0        1.9         1.8

Oregon Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                             43.0       44.0       44.8        46.2         47.6         48.9       50.4       51.8       53.4       55.0       56.6        58.4
   % Ch                                     0.9        2.4        1.8         3.2          3.0          2.8        2.9        2.9        3.1        2.8        3.1         3.1

U.S. Average Wage
Wage Rate (Thous $)                        48.0       49.3       50.5        51.9         53.4         54.8       56.3       57.9       59.6       61.5       63.4        65.4
   % Ch                                     0.0        2.7        2.4         2.9          2.9          2.6        2.7        2.8        3.0        3.1        3.2         3.1

                                                                             Housing Indicators
FHFA Oregon Housing Price Index
Housing Index 1987 Q1=100                410.8       383.9      344.8       331.0       340.0         349.9      367.4      382.2      398.7      415.2      433.6       453.9
  % Ch                                    (7.7)       (6.5)     (10.2)       (4.0)        2.7           2.9        5.0        4.0        4.3        4.2        4.4         4.7



FHFA National Housing Price Index
(1980Q1=100)                             345.0       332.8      312.3       309.5       324.9         338.1      357.5      373.1      392.8      412.0      431.1       452.2
   % Ch                                   (4.5)       (3.5)      (6.2)       (0.9)        4.9           4.1        5.7        4.4        5.3        4.9        4.6         4.9

Housing Starts
Oregon (Thous)                              7.6         7.6        7.7        7.9         10.3         13.8       19.0       23.4       25.2       25.2       25.1        25.1
   % Ch                                   (40.5)        0.6        1.3        1.5         30.6         34.6       37.9       23.0        7.7       (0.2)      (0.2)       (0.2)
U.S. (Millions)                             0.6         0.6        0.6        0.8          1.3          1.6        1.7        1.8        1.8        1.8        1.8         1.8
   % Ch                                   (38.4)        5.6        1.6       40.8         59.1         18.3        9.9        3.8        0.7       (1.0)      (0.2)       (0.5)

                                                                               Other Indicators
Industrial Production Index
U.S, 2002 = 100                            85.5       90.1       93.8        96.9         99.8        103.6      107.3      110.6      113.6      116.7      120.0       123.3
   % Ch                                   (11.2)       5.3        4.1         3.3          3.0          3.8        3.6        3.1        2.7        2.7        2.8         2.8

Prime Rate (Percent)                        3.3         3.3        3.3         3.3         4.7          6.5        7.7         7.8        7.8        7.8        7.7         7.7
   % Ch                                   (36.1)        0.0        0.0         2.8        41.5         37.3       18.3         0.9        0.0        0.0       (0.0)       (0.0)

Population (Millions)
Oregon                                     3.82        3.84       3.87        3.91        3.95          3.99       4.04       4.09       4.14       4.19       4.25        4.30
   % Ch                                    0.8         0.6        0.7         0.9         1.0           1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.3         1.3
U.S.                                     307.8       310.8      313.8       316.9       319.9         323.0      326.2      329.3      332.5      335.6      338.8       342.0
   % Ch                                    0.9         1.0        1.0         1.0         1.0           1.0        1.0        1.0        1.0        1.0        0.9         0.9

Timber Harvest (Mil Bd Ft)
Oregon                                  2,820.0     3,210.0    3,179.3     3,502.1     3,925.6     4,020.9      4,099.1    4,157.7    4,235.9    4,309.2    4,384.2     4,417.2
   % Ch                                   (18.0)       13.8       (1.0)       10.2        12.1         2.4          1.9        1.4        1.9        1.7        1.7         0.8




                                                                                     82
Table A.2 Quarterly Forecast 1
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Personal Income
(Billions of Current Dollars)
                 2009:1          2009:2      2009:3      2009:4      2010:1      2010:2        2010:3      2010:4      2011:1      2011:2      2011:3      2011:4
Total Personal Income
Oregon             137.6           138.9       138.2       139.2       140.4       141.9         142.8       143.8       146.5       147.8       149.1       151.0
  % Ch              (4.3)            3.9        (2.1)        2.9         3.6         4.4           2.6         3.0         7.7         3.5         3.6         5.1
U.S.            12,093.2        12,203.4    12,164.0    12,239.0    12,350.3    12,517.1      12,595.5    12,700.9    12,935.1    13,060.7    13,208.8    13,355.2
  % Ch              (8.2)            3.7        (1.3)        2.5         3.7         5.5           2.5         3.4         7.6         3.9         4.6         4.5

   Wage and Salary
   Oregon           70.6            70.4        69.9        70.0        70.3        71.2          71.7        72.1        73.0        73.5        74.1        75.2
     % Ch          (11.7)           (1.0)       (3.2)        0.9         1.4         5.4           3.2         2.0         5.2         2.9         3.3         5.8
   U.S.          6,260.0         6,287.7     6,263.9     6,284.9     6,291.4     6,388.8       6,443.7     6,471.6     6,523.1     6,583.4     6,657.9     6,736.4
      % Ch         (13.8)            1.8        (1.5)        1.3         0.4         6.3           3.5         1.7         3.2         3.8         4.6         4.8

   Other Labor Income
   Oregon           17.5            17.5        17.5        17.6        17.9        18.0          18.1        18.2        18.5        18.7        18.9        19.1
     % Ch           (0.5)            1.6        (0.8)        2.4         6.6         3.0           2.0         2.9         7.0         2.9         3.8         4.5
   U.S.          1,060.2         1,069.9     1,074.0     1,084.0     1,095.8     1,103.1       1,110.3     1,118.2     1,126.9     1,134.5     1,144.4     1,154.9
      % Ch           1.8             3.7         1.5         3.8         4.4         2.7           2.6         2.9         3.1         2.7         3.5         3.7

   Nonfarm Proprietor's Income
   Oregon          10.0          9.9           10.0        10.1        10.3         10.4          10.4        10.5        10.7        10.8        11.0        11.1
     % Ch         (13.9)        (2.6)           5.0         4.5         5.7          6.2           0.5         1.3         7.1         4.8         7.6         5.7
   U.S.           989.0        972.5          978.4       985.9       994.0      1,010.8       1,011.0     1,024.7     1,040.1     1,050.0     1,069.2     1,084.0
     % Ch         (16.1)        (6.5)           2.4         3.1         3.3          6.9           0.1         5.5         6.1         3.9         7.5         5.7

   Dividend, Interest and Rent
   Oregon            28.7         28.2          27.9        28.0        28.3        28.5          28.3        28.6        29.2        29.6        30.1        30.5
     % Ch           (13.3)        (6.3)         (3.6)        0.4         5.6         1.9          (2.5)        4.9         8.6         5.7         6.7         5.3
   U.S.           2,237.4      2,195.3       2,170.2     2,172.0     2,203.8     2,213.3       2,193.5     2,223.5     2,277.2     2,312.1     2,348.4     2,382.5
      % Ch          (15.2)        (7.3)         (4.5)        0.3         6.0         1.7          (3.5)        5.6        10.0         6.3         6.4         5.9

   Transfer Payments
   Oregon          25.3             27.4        27.2        27.8        28.2        28.5          29.0        29.2        29.0        29.3        29.4        29.5
      % Ch         33.4             36.3        (2.9)       10.5         4.8         5.3           6.0         2.9        (1.6)        2.9         1.4         2.6
   U.S.         1,987.2          2,124.1     2,123.4     2,152.5     2,208.9     2,249.1       2,279.2     2,298.9     2,309.0     2,327.3     2,357.0     2,349.1
      % Ch         31.0             30.5        (0.1)        5.6        10.9         7.5           5.5         3.5         1.8         3.2         5.2        (1.3)

   Contributions for Social Security
   Oregon            12.4            12.4      12.4        12.4        12.6           12.8       12.9        12.9        11.9        12.0        12.4        12.5
      % Ch           (5.4)            1.1      (1.8)        1.5         6.5            4.9        2.7         2.0       (27.8)        4.2        13.1         4.1
   U.S.            506.8           510.1      509.8       512.2       516.9          523.9      528.0       530.1       429.0       433.3       437.2       442.2
     % Ch            (6.5)            2.6      (0.2)        1.9         3.7            5.5        3.2         1.6       (57.1)        4.1         3.6         4.7

   Residence Adjustment
   Oregon           (2.1)           (2.1)       (2.1)       (2.1)       (2.1)         (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.1)       (2.1)
     % Ch          (42.4)           (4.3)       (5.8)        1.2        11.9           6.4                     1.7        12.4         2.3       (26.9)        5.3

   Farm Proprietor's Income
   Oregon             0.1            0.0         0.1         0.1        0.2            0.2        0.3          0.3         0.2         0.2         0.1        0.2
      % Ch          (91.7)         (99.2)   59,132.7       (44.1)     889.2          (33.5)     328.8         70.3       (93.5)       (5.0)      (49.2)     156.0




                                                                                83
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Personal Income
(Billions of Current Dollars)
                2012:1          2012:2      2012:3      2012:4      2013:1      2013:2      2013:3      2013:4      2014:1      2014:2      2014:3      2014:4
Total Personal Income
Oregon            152.8           154.6       156.4       158.2       160.0       161.9       163.9       165.9       168.8       171.1       173.6       176.0
   % Ch             4.9             4.8         4.8         4.8         4.5         4.9         5.0         5.0         7.0         5.6         5.9         5.8
U.S.           13,379.3        13,510.5    13,645.8    13,789.7    13,903.3    14,065.3    14,232.8    14,403.7    14,661.7    14,864.1    15,075.8    15,282.5
   % Ch             0.7             4.0         4.1         4.3         3.3         4.7         4.8         4.9         7.4         5.6         5.8         5.6

   Wage and Salary
   Oregon          76.3            77.4        78.4        79.4        80.5        81.6        82.6        83.6        84.7        85.8        87.0        88.1
      % Ch          5.8             5.9         5.4         5.4         5.7         5.2         5.0         5.2         5.4         5.3         5.4         5.6
   U.S.         6,816.1         6,888.1     6,958.8     7,032.9     7,108.6     7,187.8     7,268.6     7,348.8     7,434.5     7,517.8     7,603.7     7,692.2
      % Ch          4.8             4.3         4.2         4.3         4.4         4.5         4.6         4.5         4.7         4.6         4.7         4.7

   Other Labor Income
   Oregon           19.3           19.5        19.7        20.0        20.2        20.4        20.6        20.9        21.2        21.4        21.7        22.0
      % Ch           5.2            4.8         4.1         4.8         4.8         4.7         4.2         5.1         5.5         4.6         4.9         6.0
   U.S.          1,167.6        1,179.1     1,190.3     1,202.9     1,215.2     1,230.4     1,246.1     1,263.3     1,280.0     1,297.0     1,314.3     1,332.2
      % Ch           4.5            4.0         3.8         4.3         4.2         5.1         5.2         5.6         5.4         5.4         5.4         5.6

   Nonfarm Proprietor's Income
   Oregon          11.2         11.4           11.5        11.7        11.8        11.9        12.0        12.1        12.3        12.5        12.6        12.7
      % Ch          4.2          4.8            4.5         5.5         3.2         5.2         4.0         4.0         4.8         5.9         4.1         4.6
   U.S.        1,096.1       1,110.8        1,124.8     1,142.2     1,153.2     1,170.8     1,184.6     1,198.8     1,215.7     1,236.1     1,251.2     1,268.4
      % Ch          4.5          5.5            5.2         6.3         3.9         6.2         4.8         4.9         5.8         6.9         5.0         5.6

   Dividend, Interest and Rent
   Oregon           30.9          31.1         31.4        31.7        32.0        32.3        32.7        33.1        33.5        34.1        34.8        35.4
      % Ch            5.3          3.2          3.9         3.6         3.0         3.9         5.2         4.9         5.3         7.2         8.4         6.8
   U.S.          2,410.9       2,431.5      2,456.1     2,481.8     2,509.9     2,541.1     2,578.3     2,619.3     2,665.2     2,724.1     2,792.7     2,853.2
      % Ch            4.9          3.5          4.1         4.2         4.6         5.1         6.0         6.5         7.2         9.1        10.5         9.0

   Transfer Payments
   Oregon          29.8            30.1        30.4        30.7        31.1        31.4        31.8        32.1        33.4        33.7        34.1        34.5
      % Ch          4.2             3.1         4.1         3.9         5.4         4.6         4.4         4.4        16.4         4.5         4.7         4.6
   U.S.         2,374.4         2,390.2     2,411.9     2,434.0     2,464.1     2,487.8     2,509.5     2,532.0     2,627.5     2,654.9     2,682.6     2,710.3
      % Ch          4.4             2.7         3.7         3.7         5.0         3.9         3.5         3.6        16.0         4.2         4.2         4.2

   Contributions for Social Security
   Oregon           12.9           13.0       13.1        13.3        13.6        13.7        13.8        13.9        14.3        14.4        14.5        14.6
      % Ch          10.9             4.1       4.0         4.2        10.1         4.0         2.5         3.8        10.3         3.2         2.8         3.8
   U.S.            576.0          580.7      586.1       592.2       634.0       639.7       643.5       650.1       654.1       660.2       665.8       672.7
     % Ch          187.8             3.3       3.8         4.2        31.4         3.6         2.4         4.1         2.5         3.8         3.4         4.2

   Residence Adjustment
   Oregon          (2.1)           (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.2)       (2.3)       (2.3)       (2.3)       (2.3)       (2.4)       (2.4)       (2.4)
     % Ch           4.5             5.3         5.3         5.2         4.8         5.0         4.7         5.0         4.9         5.5         5.6         5.8

   Farm Proprietor's Income
   Oregon             0.2           0.2        0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3         0.3          0.4         0.4
      % Ch          88.7           59.7       41.7        28.9        23.1        21.5        16.6        14.2        14.4        12.1          9.7         7.8




                                                                               84
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Personal Income
(Billions of Current Dollars)
                2015:1        2015:2      2015:3      2015:4      2016:1      2016:2      2016:3      2016:4      2017:1      2017:2      2017:3      2017:4
Total Personal Income
Oregon           179.0          181.5       184.0       186.4       189.8       192.4       194.9       197.3       200.1       202.7       205.1       207.6
  % Ch             7.0            5.7         5.6         5.3         7.5         5.7         5.2         5.1         5.8         5.3         4.9         4.8
U.S.          15,522.4       15,729.4    15,930.9    16,129.1    16,412.3    16,623.8    16,828.0    17,031.2    17,261.1    17,463.9    17,663.7    17,862.5
  % Ch             6.4            5.4         5.2         5.1         7.2         5.3         5.0         4.9         5.5         4.8         4.7         4.6

  Wage and Salary
  Oregon          89.3           90.5        91.7        92.9        94.1        95.3        96.5        97.7        98.9       100.1       101.3       102.5
     % Ch          5.4            5.3         5.5         5.3         5.3         5.3         5.1         5.0         5.2         4.9         4.7         4.8
  U.S.         7,785.4        7,873.8     7,962.4     8,050.2     8,146.4     8,238.0     8,327.8     8,416.0     8,510.9     8,598.4     8,684.5     8,770.7
    % Ch           4.9            4.6         4.6         4.5         4.9         4.6         4.4         4.3         4.6         4.2         4.1         4.0

  Other Labor Income
  Oregon          22.3           22.6        22.9        23.2        23.5        23.7        24.0        24.3        24.6        24.9        25.2        25.5
     % Ch          5.8            5.2         5.1         5.3         5.1         5.0         5.0         5.0         4.9         4.7         4.7         4.6
  U.S.         1,350.5        1,367.9     1,385.3     1,403.1     1,420.2     1,437.3     1,454.5     1,471.9     1,488.9     1,505.3     1,522.0     1,538.6
    % Ch           5.6            5.2         5.2         5.2         5.0         4.9         4.9         4.9         4.7         4.5         4.5         4.4

  Nonfarm Proprietor's Income
  Oregon         12.8          13.0          13.1        13.2        13.4        13.6        13.8        13.9        14.1        14.3        14.4        14.6
     % Ch          3.7          4.5           3.4         4.0         5.5         6.2         4.6         5.0         4.6         5.5         3.9         4.7
  U.S.        1,282.7       1,300.1       1,313.8     1,329.9     1,349.5     1,372.1     1,389.6     1,409.8     1,428.6     1,451.4     1,468.3     1,489.0
    % Ch           4.6          5.5           4.3         5.0         6.0         6.9         5.2         6.0         5.4         6.5         4.7         5.8

  Dividend, Interest and Rent
  Oregon           36.0          36.6        37.2        37.7        38.2        38.8        39.3        39.8        40.2        40.7        41.2        41.6
     % Ch            7.2          7.1         7.2         5.4         5.2         5.8         5.9         4.7         4.6         4.6         5.1         4.1
  U.S.          2,918.7       2,980.5     3,039.6     3,093.8     3,144.4     3,197.4     3,247.7     3,292.5     3,337.6     3,380.5     3,425.5     3,465.8
     % Ch            9.5          8.7         8.2         7.3         6.7         6.9         6.4         5.6         5.6         5.2         5.4         4.8

  Transfer Payments
  Oregon          35.6           36.0        36.4        36.8        38.4        38.8        39.3        39.8        40.8        41.3        41.8        42.4
     % Ch         13.8            4.6         4.6         4.6        17.6         4.7         4.8         5.3        10.1         5.2         5.3         5.3
  U.S.         2,800.2        2,827.1     2,856.6     2,886.8     2,999.3     3,033.8     3,069.5     3,109.1     3,184.4     3,224.9     3,266.4     3,308.7
     % Ch         13.9            3.9         4.2         4.3        16.5         4.7         4.8         5.3        10.0         5.2         5.2         5.3

  Contributions for Social Security
  Oregon           15.0           15.1      15.2        15.3        15.5        15.6        15.7        15.9        16.2        16.2        16.4        16.5
     % Ch           9.6            2.3       3.3         3.3         6.5         1.1         4.1         4.0         7.2         0.9         3.8         3.8
  U.S.            712.1         718.7      725.0       732.4       745.5       752.3       758.8       765.9       787.3       793.8       799.9       806.9
    % Ch           25.6            3.7       3.6         4.1         7.3         3.7         3.5         3.8        11.6         3.3         3.1         3.5

  Residence Adjustment
  Oregon          (2.5)          (2.5)       (2.5)       (2.6)       (2.6)       (2.6)       (2.7)       (2.7)       (2.7)       (2.8)       (2.8)       (2.8)
    % Ch           5.0            5.3         5.5         5.3         5.1         4.8         4.8         4.7         4.8         4.5         4.3         4.4

  Farm Proprietor's Income
  Oregon            0.4           0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4         0.4
     % Ch           5.5           5.2         4.3         3.6         6.9         3.0         2.8         2.7         2.6         2.4         2.3         2.3




                                                                             85
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Personal Income
(Billions of Current Dollars)
                2018:1         2018:2      2018:3      2018:4      2019:1      2019:2      2019:3      2019:4      2020:1      2020:2      2020:3      2020:4
Total Personal Income
Oregon           210.1           212.5       215.0       217.6       220.5       223.1       225.7       228.4       231.5       234.4       237.0       239.7
   % Ch            5.1             4.5         4.8         4.8         5.5         4.9         4.8         4.7         5.6         5.1         4.6         4.6
U.S.          18,093.5        18,298.0    18,505.3    18,715.2    18,961.6    19,176.1    19,394.5    19,615.8    19,882.5    20,118.8    20,340.7    20,563.1
   % Ch            5.3             4.6         4.6         4.6         5.4         4.6         4.6         4.6         5.6         4.8         4.5         4.4

  Wage and Salary
  Oregon          103.6          104.6       105.7       106.9       108.2       109.3       110.5       111.7       112.9       114.2       115.3       116.5
    % Ch            4.5            3.6         4.6         4.7         4.8         4.3         4.3         4.4         4.5         4.7         3.9         4.1
  U.S.         8,863.3         8,949.9     9,037.2     9,124.9     9,220.7     9,310.5     9,400.9     9,491.7     9,590.7     9,691.6     9,776.9     9,863.9
    % Ch            4.3            4.0         4.0         3.9         4.3         4.0         3.9         3.9         4.2         4.3         3.6         3.6

  Other Labor Income
  Oregon           25.8           26.0        26.3        26.6        26.9        27.2        27.4        27.7        28.0        28.3        28.6        28.9
    % Ch            4.4            4.3         4.4         4.4         4.3         4.3         4.2         4.2         4.3         4.4         4.5         4.2
  U.S.          1,554.7        1,571.1     1,587.1     1,603.4     1,619.4     1,635.7     1,651.7     1,668.0     1,684.7     1,701.8     1,720.7     1,737.8
    % Ch            4.3            4.3         4.1         4.2         4.0         4.1         4.0         4.0         4.1         4.1         4.5         4.0

  Nonfarm Proprietor's Income
  Oregon          14.7         14.9           15.1        15.3        15.4        15.6        15.8        16.0        16.2        16.4        16.5        16.7
    % Ch           4.1          5.4            4.7         4.9         4.4         4.9         4.3         4.5         5.0         5.3         4.2         4.3
  U.S.        1,507.3       1,531.1        1,552.2     1,574.7     1,595.6     1,619.1     1,640.1     1,662.2     1,687.1     1,713.3     1,735.0     1,757.7
    % Ch           5.0          6.5            5.6         5.9         5.4         6.0         5.3         5.5         6.1         6.4         5.2         5.3

  Dividend, Interest and Rent
  Oregon           41.8          42.2         42.7        43.2        43.6        44.1        44.7        45.2        45.8        46.3        46.9        47.4
    % Ch             1.9          4.1          4.8         4.4         4.4         4.5         5.3         4.8         4.7         4.8         5.3         4.7
  U.S.          3,507.1       3,546.9      3,591.3     3,636.9     3,685.0     3,731.1     3,782.4     3,835.2     3,888.0     3,939.5     3,993.6     4,047.6
    % Ch             4.8          4.6          5.1         5.2         5.4         5.1         5.6         5.7         5.6         5.4         5.6         5.5

  Transfer Payments
  Oregon          43.0            43.6        44.1        44.7        45.8        46.4        47.0        47.6        48.7        49.4        50.0        50.6
     % Ch          6.3             5.3         5.3         5.3        10.0         5.2         5.2         5.2        10.3         5.2         5.1         5.1
  U.S.         3,388.5         3,431.8     3,475.7     3,519.9     3,603.8     3,648.6     3,694.0     3,740.4     3,832.3     3,880.3     3,928.1     3,976.9
     % Ch         10.0             5.2         5.2         5.2         9.9         5.1         5.1         5.1        10.2         5.1         5.0         5.1

  Contributions for Social Security
  Oregon           16.1           16.1       16.3        16.4        16.7        16.7        16.8        17.0        17.2        17.3        17.4        17.5
    % Ch            (9.4)           0.0       3.6         3.6         6.8         0.4         3.4         3.4         6.5         0.6         3.1         3.2
  U.S.            825.3          831.7      837.9       845.0       864.0       870.7       877.1       884.5       904.2       911.8       917.7       924.8
    % Ch             9.5            3.1       3.0         3.5         9.3         3.1         3.0         3.4         9.2         3.4         2.6         3.1

  Residence Adjustment
  Oregon          (3.2)           (3.2)       (3.2)       (3.2)       (3.3)       (3.3)       (3.3)       (3.4)       (3.4)       (3.4)       (3.4)       (3.5)
    % Ch          57.3             2.9         3.9         3.9         4.0         3.5         3.5         3.5         3.6         3.8         3.1         3.3

  Farm Proprietor's Income
  Oregon             0.5           0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5         0.5
     % Ch        165.1             1.3         1.3         1.2         1.4         1.0         0.9         0.7         0.5         0.3         0.1        (0.0)




                                                                                86
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                     2009:1     2009:2     2009:3     2009:4     2010:1          2010:2    2010:3     2010:4     2011:1    2011:2    2011:3    2011:4
Total Nonfarm
Oregon              1,643.3     1,614.4    1,601.2    1,592.7    1,593.0     1,603.2       1,600.0    1,602.9    1,622.3   1,625.0   1,629.9   1,638.2
  % Ch                (10.0)       (6.9)      (3.2)      (2.1)       0.1         2.6          (0.8)       0.7        4.9       0.7       1.2       2.1
U.S.                  132.8       131.0      130.0      129.4      129.3       130.0         129.9      130.1      130.5     131.1     131.5     132.1
   % Ch                (6.5)       (5.5)      (3.0)      (1.6)      (0.3)        2.0          (0.2)       0.8        1.3       1.6       1.2       1.8

  Private Nonfarm
  Oregon            1,342.8     1,314.8    1,301.3    1,294.6    1,294.6     1,300.6       1,300.8    1,305.1    1,324.0   1,329.2   1,338.9   1,348.6
     % Ch             (12.1)       (8.1)      (4.0)      (2.1)       0.0         1.9           0.1        1.3        5.9       1.6       2.9       2.9
  U.S.                110.2       108.3      107.4      106.9      106.8       107.2         107.5      107.9      108.3     108.9     109.4     110.1
      % Ch             (7.8)       (6.7)      (3.3)      (1.9)      (0.3)        1.4           1.0        1.5        1.8       2.2       1.9       2.5

    Natural Resources and Mining
    Oregon              7.4        6.9         6.6        6.5        6.6            6.8        6.8        6.7       6.9       6.8        6.9       7.0
       % Ch           (41.9)     (24.8)      (15.1)      (6.4)       9.6            8.6        0.1       (3.6)     10.6      (2.0)       4.2       4.4
    U.S.                0.7        0.7         0.7        0.7        0.7            0.7        0.7        0.7       0.7       0.8        0.8       0.8
       % Ch           (14.4)     (23.8)      (13.3)      (6.0)       6.8           14.6       13.2        9.2       7.3      14.7        5.4       1.1

    Construction
    Oregon              79.7       74.7       72.2       69.7       67.8           67.7       67.7      67.7       68.5      69.1      69.2      69.3
       % Ch            (28.1)     (23.1)     (12.6)     (13.2)     (10.7)          (0.2)       0.1      (0.1)       4.5       3.6       1.0       0.1
    U.S.                 6.4        6.1        5.8        5.7        5.6            5.5        5.5       5.5        5.5       5.5       5.5       5.4
       % Ch            (21.1)     (20.0)     (14.6)     (10.7)      (8.9)          (1.5)      (1.7)     (0.5)       0.1       1.2      (3.2)     (6.9)

    Manufacturing
    Oregon            174.8       167.6     164.0      162.3      162.7           164.2     163.4      164.9      166.9     168.5     167.0     168.3
       % Ch           (24.6)      (15.5)     (8.4)      (4.1)       1.1             3.7      (1.9)       3.7        5.0       3.8      (3.4)      3.0
    U.S.               12.4        11.9      11.6       11.5       11.5            11.5      11.6       11.6       11.6      11.7      11.8      11.8
       % Ch           (17.6)      (15.4)     (8.2)      (4.7)      (0.8)            2.3       1.0       (0.2)       3.4       1.7       1.9       3.1

      Durable Manufacturing
      Oregon        124.8         118.4     115.0      113.5      114.1           115.2     114.9      114.9      116.2     118.3     119.3     120.4
         % Ch       (28.9)        (19.0)    (11.1)      (5.1)       2.2             3.9      (0.9)      (0.3)       4.9       7.2       3.5       3.7
      U.S.            7.7           7.3       7.1        7.0        7.0             7.1       7.1        7.1        7.2       7.3       7.3       7.4
         % Ch       (20.7)        (19.4)    (10.1)      (5.8)      (0.3)            3.5       2.2        0.7        5.5       2.8       2.7       5.2

        Wood Products
        Oregon        22.2         21.1       20.4       20.2       20.1           20.4       19.9       19.3      19.2      18.8      19.0      19.2
          % Ch       (34.9)       (17.8)     (12.5)      (5.2)      (1.3)           7.1      (10.3)     (11.1)     (3.2)     (6.9)      3.3       5.5
        U.S.           0.4          0.4        0.3        0.3        0.3            0.3        0.3        0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3
           % Ch      (32.4)       (20.7)     (12.8)      (3.3)      (2.3)           3.7       (6.8)      (3.6)      6.3      (4.6)     (1.0)      4.0

        M etal and M achinery
        Oregon          34.7       32.2       30.7       30.2      30.4            31.1       31.5      31.5       32.3      32.9      33.7      34.2
           % Ch        (27.8)     (26.4)     (16.5)      (6.4)      2.6             8.7        5.2       0.3       11.3       7.3       9.3       6.6
        U.S.             2.9        2.7        2.6        2.6       2.6             2.6        2.7       2.7        2.7       2.8       2.8       2.8
            % Ch       (21.3)     (22.9)     (12.8)      (5.8)      0.4             7.4        4.4       2.8        7.7       6.7       3.7       3.4

        Computer and Electronic Products
        Oregon        36.3         35.4       35.1       34.9       34.9           34.9       34.9      35.2       35.9      36.4      36.3      36.4
          % Ch       (12.4)        (9.0)      (3.4)      (2.7)       0.6           (0.8)       0.7       3.0        8.0       6.2      (1.0)      0.5
        U.S.           1.2          1.1        1.1        1.1        1.1            1.1        1.1       1.1        1.1       1.1       1.1       1.1
           % Ch      (11.3)       (13.7)     (10.4)      (5.3)      (1.8)           1.2        2.0       1.6        3.9       1.9      (0.5)      5.6

        Transportation Equipment
        Oregon         10.9       10.1         9.9        9.9      10.2            10.3       10.1      10.2       10.4      10.5      10.6      10.8
           % Ch       (57.9)     (25.1)       (6.1)      (1.0)     10.5             5.2       (7.4)      4.3        5.5       7.2       4.0       6.4
        U.S.            1.4        1.3         1.3        1.3       1.3             1.3        1.3       1.3        1.4       1.4       1.4       1.4
           % Ch       (25.2)     (20.8)       (3.1)      (4.3)      3.4             1.5        3.8      (2.4)       6.9       0.6       6.1      12.5

        Other Durables
        Oregon          20.8       19.6       18.8       18.3       18.5           18.5       18.5      18.7       18.5      19.6      19.7      19.8
          % Ch         (28.5)     (21.0)     (16.2)      (9.6)       4.3            1.1        0.5       2.3       (3.2)     25.8       2.7       1.6
        U.S.             2.2        2.1        2.1        2.0        2.0            2.0        2.0       2.0        2.0       2.0       2.0       2.1
           % Ch        (21.3)     (16.6)     (10.6)      (7.2)      (2.7)           1.1       (1.4)     (0.6)       2.6       4.0       3.7       1.2




                                                                            87
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                     2012:1      2012:2     2012:3     2012:4     2013:1          2013:2    2013:3     2013:4     2014:1     2014:2     2014:3     2014:4
Total Nonfarm
Oregon              1,648.7      1,658.9    1,669.3    1,678.4    1,688.2     1,697.3       1,706.6    1,716.9    1,727.3    1,737.9    1,748.5    1,759.4
  % Ch                  2.6          2.5        2.5        2.2        2.3         2.2           2.2        2.4        2.5        2.5        2.5        2.5
U.S.                  132.6        133.1      133.5      134.0      134.4       134.9         135.6      136.2      136.9      137.6      138.2      138.9
   % Ch                 1.8          1.3        1.4        1.4        1.1         1.6           2.0        2.0        1.9        2.0        2.0        2.0

  Private Nonfarm
  Oregon            1,359.1      1,369.1    1,379.2    1,388.0    1,397.3     1,405.9       1,414.8    1,424.5    1,434.3    1,444.3    1,454.4    1,464.7
     % Ch               3.2          3.0        3.0        2.6        2.7         2.5           2.6        2.8        2.8        2.8        2.8        2.9
  U.S.                110.8        111.2      111.7      112.1      112.5       112.9         113.5      114.1      114.7      115.3      116.0      116.6
      % Ch              2.3          1.7        1.7        1.7        1.2         1.7           2.1        2.1        2.0        2.2        2.3        2.2

    Natural Resources and Mining
    Oregon              7.0       7.1           7.2        7.2        7.3            7.2        7.2        7.2        7.2        7.2        7.2        7.2
       % Ch             2.5       3.9           4.1        2.2        2.6           (0.9)      (0.0)      (0.8)      (1.0)      (0.9)      (1.1)      (0.8)
    U.S.                0.8       0.8           0.8        0.8        0.8            0.8        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7
       % Ch            (5.4)     (3.4)         (2.7)      (4.2)      (0.5)          (1.8)      (0.9)      (1.2)      (3.1)      (5.0)      (4.6)      (4.2)

    Construction
    Oregon               69.4       69.6      69.8       69.9       70.3            71.1      72.3       74.0       76.1       78.2       80.0       81.7
       % Ch               0.7        1.0       1.3        0.6        2.2             4.6       7.0        9.7       12.2       11.2        9.9        8.5
    U.S.                  5.3        5.2       5.2        5.3        5.4             5.6       5.7        5.9        6.1        6.3        6.5        6.7
       % Ch              (6.7)      (4.4)      0.3        4.8        9.0            11.6      12.8       13.7       13.7       13.5       12.3       11.1

    Manufacturing
    Oregon            169.6        171.6     173.3      175.1      176.6           177.9     178.5      179.8      180.8      181.3      182.1      182.8
       % Ch             3.0          4.8       4.2        4.2        3.5             3.0       1.3        2.9        2.3        1.1        1.6        1.6
    U.S.               11.9         12.1      12.1       12.2       12.3            12.4      12.4       12.5       12.5       12.6       12.6       12.6
       % Ch             2.6          5.3       1.9        3.0        2.7             2.8       1.5        2.1        1.1        0.8        0.6        1.0

      Durable Manufacturing
      Oregon        121.6          123.4     125.0      126.8      128.2           129.5     129.9      131.1      132.0      132.4      133.1      133.7
         % Ch         4.0            6.1       5.4        5.6        4.6             4.2       1.3        3.6        2.8        1.3        2.0        1.9
      U.S.            7.5            7.6       7.7        7.8        7.9             7.9       8.0        8.1        8.1        8.1        8.2        8.2
         % Ch         3.9            8.0       2.9        5.2        4.4             4.9       2.6        3.4        2.3        1.8        1.4        1.9

        Wood Products
        Oregon        19.5          19.9      20.2       20.6       21.0            21.4      21.7       22.3       22.8       23.1       23.4       23.5
          % Ch         6.6           6.9       7.5        7.2        8.8             7.1       6.8       10.9        8.8        6.3        3.8        3.3
        U.S.           0.4           0.4       0.4        0.4        0.4             0.5       0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5
           % Ch       14.3          30.3      24.3       26.7       20.7            15.7      11.0        9.3        5.2        4.2        3.2        2.8

        M etal and M achinery
        Oregon          34.6        34.9      35.3       35.5       35.7            35.9      36.0       36.1       36.2       36.2       36.3       36.3
           % Ch          4.5         3.9       4.1        3.0        2.2             1.8       1.4        1.1        0.6        0.6        0.6        0.6
        U.S.             2.8         2.9       2.9        2.9        3.0             3.0       3.0        3.0        3.0        3.1        3.1        3.1
            % Ch         0.7         7.9       1.8        5.3        2.7             1.9       1.6        4.0        3.2        3.1        2.1        2.6

        Computer and Electronic Products
        Oregon        36.7         37.2       37.8       38.4       38.9            39.5      39.2       39.3       39.3       39.0       39.0       39.1
          % Ch         4.1          5.6        6.3        6.8        5.3             5.9      (3.3)       1.3       (0.2)      (3.1)       0.8        1.1
        U.S.           1.2          1.2        1.2        1.1        1.2             1.2       1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2
           % Ch       13.0          2.7       (4.4)      (5.8)       3.2            12.0       0.7       (3.2)      (3.0)      (4.6)      (1.4)       0.2

        Transportation Equipment
        Oregon         10.9         11.1      11.3       11.5       11.8            12.0      12.3       12.5       12.8       13.0       13.2       13.4
           % Ch         5.5          7.4       6.7        7.6        8.5             8.6       8.5        8.1        8.8        7.6        7.0        5.7
        U.S.            1.4          1.5       1.5        1.5        1.5             1.6       1.6        1.6        1.6        1.7        1.7        1.7
           % Ch         5.3          8.4       6.1        8.2        6.6             6.6       5.8        7.1        5.1        4.4        3.1        3.4

        Other Durables
        Oregon           19.8       20.2      20.4       20.7       20.7            20.7      20.7       20.9       21.0       21.1       21.2       21.3
          % Ch           (0.5)       9.4       3.5        5.4        1.4            (0.3)      0.3        2.6        2.8        1.6        1.8        1.8
        U.S.              2.1        2.1       2.2        2.2        2.3             2.3       2.3        2.3        2.3        2.3        2.3        2.3
           % Ch           4.2       12.2       9.5        8.2        6.6             3.5       2.4        2.2        1.3        1.0        0.8        0.5




                                                                             88
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                     2015:1     2015:2     2015:3     2015:4     2016:1          2016:2    2016:3     2016:4     2017:1     2017:2     2017:3     2017:4
Total Nonfarm
Oregon              1,769.9     1,780.3    1,791.1    1,801.2    1,811.2     1,820.8       1,829.8    1,838.6    1,847.1    1,855.6    1,862.9    1,870.6
  % Ch                  2.4         2.4        2.5        2.3        2.2         2.1           2.0        1.9        1.9        1.9        1.6        1.7
U.S.                  139.6       140.3      140.9      141.5      142.2       142.8         143.3      143.9      144.3      144.7      145.1      145.5
   % Ch                 2.0         1.9        1.8        1.8        1.8         1.7           1.6        1.5        1.2        1.2        1.1        1.0

  Private Nonfarm
  Oregon            1,474.5     1,484.3    1,494.6    1,504.1    1,513.5     1,522.3       1,530.6    1,538.6    1,546.1    1,553.9    1,560.5    1,567.4
     % Ch               2.7         2.7        2.8        2.6        2.5         2.4           2.2        2.1        2.0        2.0        1.7        1.8
  U.S.                117.3       117.9      118.5      119.0      119.6       120.2         120.6      121.1      121.5      121.8      122.1      122.5
      % Ch              2.2         2.2        2.0        1.9        1.9         1.8           1.7        1.5        1.2        1.2        1.0        1.1

    Natural Resources and Mining
    Oregon              7.2       7.1          7.1        7.1        7.1            7.1        7.1        7.1        7.1        7.1        7.1        7.1
       % Ch            (0.6)     (0.3)        (0.1)       0.1       (1.0)          (0.5)      (0.7)      (0.5)      (0.0)      (0.6)      (0.8)      (0.9)
    U.S.                0.7       0.7          0.7        0.7        0.7            0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7        0.7
       % Ch            (3.8)     (3.1)        (2.9)      (2.2)      (2.2)          (2.4)      (2.0)      (2.0)      (2.1)      (2.5)      (2.4)      (2.8)

    Construction
    Oregon               83.3       84.8     86.4       87.9       89.3            90.6      91.6       92.5       93.6       94.5       94.9       95.3
       % Ch               8.1        7.6      7.8        7.2        6.5             5.9       4.6        3.8        4.8        3.9        1.9        1.5
    U.S.                  6.8        7.0      7.1        7.2        7.4             7.5       7.6        7.6        7.7        7.8        7.8        7.9
       % Ch              10.6        9.0      7.7        7.0        7.0             6.1       4.6        3.8        4.2        3.7        2.5        2.0

    Manufacturing
    Oregon            183.6        184.4    185.4      185.8      186.5           187.2     187.7      188.3      189.1      189.9      190.9      192.0
       % Ch             1.7          1.9      2.1        1.0        1.4             1.5       1.2        1.1        1.8        1.8        1.9        2.4
    U.S.               12.6         12.7     12.7       12.7       12.7            12.7      12.7       12.7       12.7       12.7       12.7       12.8
       % Ch             1.1          0.7      0.4        0.1        0.4             0.1      (0.2)       0.0        0.2        0.4        0.4        0.7

      Durable Manufacturing
      Oregon        134.4          135.1    136.0      136.4      136.9           137.5     137.9      138.3      139.0      139.7      140.5      141.4
         % Ch         2.1            2.2      2.6        1.0        1.6             1.7       1.3        1.2        2.0        2.0        2.2        2.8
      U.S.            8.2            8.3      8.3        8.3        8.3             8.3       8.3        8.3        8.3        8.3        8.3        8.4
         % Ch         1.9            1.3      0.9        0.2        0.8             0.3      (0.2)       0.1        0.3        0.5        0.5        0.8

        Wood Products
        Oregon           23.7       23.8     24.0       24.0       24.1            24.1      24.2       24.2       24.3       24.4       24.4       24.5
          % Ch            3.2        2.0      2.1        0.9        1.0             0.6       0.9        1.0        1.3        1.7        0.7        0.4
        U.S.              0.5        0.5      0.5        0.5        0.5             0.5       0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5
           % Ch           3.1        1.4     (0.1)      (1.2)      (1.0)           (0.6)     (1.1)      (1.3)      (0.6)       0.5        0.8        0.9

        M etal and M achinery
        Oregon          36.4        36.5     36.6       36.8       36.9            37.1      37.4       37.6       37.8       38.1       38.4       38.6
           % Ch          0.4         1.1      1.8        1.6        1.5             2.2       3.0        2.3        2.3        2.9        3.1        2.5
        U.S.             3.1         3.1      3.1        3.2        3.2             3.2       3.2        3.2        3.2        3.2        3.2        3.2
            % Ch         2.5         2.0      2.0        1.8        2.0             1.6       1.1        1.4        0.6        0.7        0.5        0.7

        Computer and Electronic Products
        Oregon        39.3         39.5      39.9       40.0       40.3            40.6      40.7       40.8       41.2       41.4       41.7       42.2
          % Ch         1.7          2.3       4.1        0.4        3.1             2.9       1.3        1.6        3.3        2.1        2.6        5.0
        U.S.           1.2          1.2       1.2        1.2        1.2             1.2       1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2        1.2
           % Ch        1.1          1.1       1.4        1.1        4.0             1.4       1.0        1.2        3.3        3.1        2.7        2.5

        Transportation Equipment
        Oregon         13.6         13.8     13.9       13.9       13.7            13.6      13.5       13.4       13.2       13.2       13.1       13.1
           % Ch         6.6          5.0      1.8       (0.3)      (3.2)           (3.2)     (3.6)      (4.4)      (3.2)      (2.7)      (1.6)      (0.7)
        U.S.            1.7          1.7      1.7        1.7        1.7             1.7       1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6
           % Ch         2.3          1.2     (1.2)      (2.9)      (2.8)           (2.8)     (3.1)      (2.7)      (3.0)      (2.1)      (1.6)      (0.4)

        Other Durables
        Oregon           21.4       21.5     21.6       21.8       21.9            22.1      22.2       22.3       22.5       22.7       22.9       23.1
          % Ch            1.6        2.3      2.5        2.2        2.8             2.8       2.0        2.4        3.3        3.3        3.4        3.7
        U.S.              2.3        2.3      2.3        2.3        2.3             2.4       2.4        2.4        2.4        2.4        2.4        2.4
           % Ch           1.3        0.6      0.9       (0.1)       0.5             0.5       0.0        0.3        0.8        0.8        0.9        1.2




                                                                            89
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                     2018:1     2018:2     2018:3     2018:4     2019:1          2019:2    2019:3     2019:4     2020:1     2020:2     2020:3     2020:4
Total Nonfarm
Oregon              1,877.5     1,885.4    1,892.1    1,898.8    1,905.6     1,911.7       1,917.4    1,923.1    1,929.0    1,938.9    1,941.5    1,945.1
  % Ch                  1.5         1.7        1.4        1.4        1.4         1.3           1.2        1.2        1.2        2.1        0.6        0.7
U.S.                  145.8       146.2      146.5      146.8      147.1       147.4         147.7      148.0      148.3      148.9      148.9      149.0
   % Ch                 0.9         0.9        0.8        0.8        0.8         0.9           0.8        0.8        0.8        1.7        0.1        0.3

  Private Nonfarm
  Oregon            1,573.4     1,580.5    1,586.5    1,592.3    1,598.2     1,603.5       1,608.6    1,613.4    1,618.1    1,623.2    1,627.7    1,632.1
     % Ch               1.5         1.8        1.5        1.5        1.5         1.3           1.3        1.2        1.2        1.3        1.1        1.1
  U.S.                122.7       123.0      123.3      123.5      123.8       124.0         124.3      124.5      124.8      125.0      125.2      125.4
      % Ch              0.9         0.9        0.8        0.8        0.8         0.9           0.8        0.8        0.7        0.8        0.7        0.6

    Natural Resources and Mining
    Oregon              7.0       7.0          7.0        7.0        7.0            7.0        7.0        7.0        7.0        7.0        6.9        6.9
       % Ch            (1.1)      0.2         (0.2)      (0.8)      (0.5)          (0.8)      (0.3)      (0.5)      (0.8)      (0.9)      (0.8)      (0.8)
    U.S.                0.7       0.7          0.6        0.6        0.6            0.6        0.6        0.6        0.6        0.6        0.6        0.6
       % Ch            (2.9)     (3.6)        (3.8)      (4.2)      (1.6)          (2.1)      (1.4)      (1.4)      (2.0)      (2.0)      (1.8)      (1.8)

    Construction
    Oregon               95.9       96.3     96.4       96.6       97.0            97.3      97.5       97.7       98.1       98.5       98.7       98.9
       % Ch               2.5        1.7      0.7        0.9        1.5             1.2       0.8        1.0        1.5        1.4        0.9        1.0
    U.S.                  7.9        8.0      8.0        8.0        8.0             8.1       8.1        8.1        8.2        8.2        8.2        8.3
       % Ch               2.4        2.2      1.4        1.2        1.7             1.8       1.4        1.3        1.8        1.9        1.4        1.4

    Manufacturing
    Oregon            193.0        193.9    194.8      195.7      196.2           196.7     197.2      197.6      198.0      198.4      198.8      199.1
       % Ch             2.1          1.9      1.8        1.8        1.1             1.1       0.9        0.8        0.9        0.8        0.8        0.6
    U.S.               12.8         12.8     12.8       12.8       12.8            12.8      12.8       12.8       12.8       12.8       12.8       12.8
       % Ch             0.5          0.6      0.5        0.7        0.1             0.2      (0.2)      (0.1)      (0.4)      (0.2)      (0.3)      (0.2)

      Durable Manufacturing
      Oregon        142.3          143.0    143.7      144.4      144.9           145.3     145.7      146.1      146.4      146.7      147.0      147.2
         % Ch         2.5            2.1      2.0        1.9        1.3             1.2       1.1        0.9        0.9        0.8        0.8        0.6
      U.S.            8.4            8.4      8.4        8.4        8.4             8.5       8.5        8.5        8.5        8.5        8.4        8.4
         % Ch         0.6            0.8      0.7        1.0        0.3             0.6       0.2        0.1       (0.3)       0.1       (0.2)      (0.0)

        Wood Products
        Oregon           24.5       24.5     24.6       24.6       24.7            24.7      24.7       24.7       24.7       24.8       24.8       24.9
          % Ch            0.8        0.3      0.8        0.5        0.9             0.1       0.4        0.2        0.5        0.5        0.6        0.7
        U.S.              0.5        0.5      0.5        0.5        0.5             0.5       0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5        0.5
           % Ch           0.2        1.0      1.0        1.4        0.2             0.7       0.3        0.6       (0.2)       0.3        0.1        0.5

        M etal and M achinery
        Oregon          38.8        39.0     39.2       39.3       39.3            39.4      39.4       39.4       39.5       39.5       39.5       39.5
           % Ch          2.2         1.8      1.4        1.1        0.8             0.5       0.4        0.2        0.2        0.1        0.1        0.1
        U.S.             3.2         3.2      3.2        3.2        3.2             3.3       3.3        3.3        3.3        3.3        3.3        3.3
            % Ch         0.4         0.5      0.4        0.7        0.9             1.2       0.7        0.7        0.3        0.6        0.3        0.6

        Computer and Electronic Products
        Oregon        42.6         42.9      43.2       43.5       43.6            43.9      44.1       44.3       44.5       44.7       44.8       44.9
          % Ch         3.9          3.1       2.9        3.0        0.9             2.2       2.1        1.9        1.6        1.7        1.6        0.8
        U.S.           1.2          1.2       1.2        1.3        1.3             1.3       1.3        1.3        1.3        1.3        1.3        1.3
           % Ch        2.1          2.2       2.0        2.1        0.2             1.4       1.3        1.1        0.8        1.0        0.9        0.2

        Transportation Equipment
        Oregon         13.1         13.1     13.1       13.1       13.2            13.2      13.2       13.1       13.1       13.0       12.9       12.8
           % Ch          0.4         0.1      0.8        0.4        1.1            (0.5)      0.1       (0.6)      (0.6)      (2.9)      (2.2)      (3.0)
        U.S.             1.6         1.6      1.6        1.6        1.6             1.6       1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.5
           % Ch         (0.5)        0.1      0.0        0.4       (1.1)           (0.9)     (1.5)      (1.6)      (2.7)      (2.2)      (2.6)      (2.0)

        Other Durables
        Oregon           23.3       23.5     23.7       23.9       24.1            24.3      24.4       24.5       24.6       24.8       24.9       25.1
          % Ch            3.4        3.7      3.5        3.9        3.2             2.7       1.7        2.0        2.1        2.6        2.2        2.7
        U.S.              2.4        2.4      2.4        2.4        2.4             2.4       2.4        2.4        2.4        2.4        2.4        2.4
           % Ch           0.8        1.2      0.8        1.2        0.6             0.5      (0.0)       0.3        0.1        0.3        0.0        0.4




                                                                            90
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                 2009:1     2009:2         2009:3    2009:4    2010:1         2010:2    2010:3    2010:4    2011:1    2011:2    2011:3    2011:4
     Nondurable Manufacturing
     Oregon         50.0      49.2           49.0      48.8      48.6           49.0      48.5      50.0      50.7      50.2      47.7      47.9
        % Ch       (12.4)     (6.2)          (1.6)     (1.7)     (1.6)           3.2      (4.1)     13.5       5.3      (3.7)    (18.4)      1.4
     U.S.            4.7        4.6           4.5       4.5       4.5            4.5       4.5       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4
        % Ch       (12.0)      (8.6)         (5.2)     (2.8)     (1.6)           0.4      (1.0)     (1.6)               (0.0)      0.7      (0.3)

        Food M anufacturing
        Oregon        23.1         23.1      23.5      23.4      23.5           23.9      23.5      25.3      26.7      26.2      23.6      23.7
          % Ch         (8.5)        0.6       5.9      (1.0)      1.5            6.8      (5.8)     34.1      24.0      (6.9)    (34.2)      1.3
        U.S.            1.5         1.5       1.5       1.5       1.4            1.5       1.4       1.4       1.4       1.5       1.5       1.5
           % Ch        (4.5)       (0.3)     (0.3)     (0.6)     (1.9)           1.3      (0.8)     (1.7)      2.0       0.4       0.6       0.9

        Other Nondurable
        Oregon        26.9         26.1      25.6      25.4      25.1           25.1      25.0      24.7      24.0      24.0      24.1      24.2
          % Ch       (15.6)       (11.8)     (7.8)     (2.4)     (4.3)          (0.1)     (2.5)     (3.6)    (11.6)     (0.1)      1.9       1.4
        U.S.           3.2          3.1       3.1       3.0       3.0            3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0
           % Ch      (14.8)       (12.2)     (7.4)     (3.8)     (1.4)           0.0      (1.1)     (1.5)     (1.0)      1.9      (0.1)     (1.1)

   Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
   Oregon            319.1       313.1      309.8     306.9     307.1          307.9     307.6     310.0     312.0     313.7     316.1     318.0
      % Ch           (10.1)        (7.3)     (4.2)     (3.7)      0.3            1.0      (0.4)      3.1       2.7       2.2       3.1       2.5
   U.S.               25.3         25.0      24.8      24.6      24.5           24.6      24.6      24.7      24.8      24.9      25.0      25.2
      % Ch            (7.5)        (5.6)     (3.2)     (2.7)     (0.7)           0.7       0.5       1.4       1.1       1.8       1.9       3.6

     Retail Trade
     Oregon           186.5       183.7     182.4     181.2     182.4          182.8     183.0     185.5     187.1     189.0     190.0     190.4
        % Ch           (9.4)       (5.9)     (2.8)     (2.5)      2.6            1.0       0.3       5.6       3.4       4.2       2.2       0.8
     U.S.              14.7        14.6      14.5      14.4      14.4           14.4      14.4      14.4      14.5      14.5      14.6      14.6
        % Ch           (7.5)       (4.0)     (2.3)     (2.8)      0.7            0.7       0.1       0.8       0.8       1.6       0.6       1.5

     Wholesale Trade
     Oregon          77.4          75.8      74.4      73.4      72.8           73.1      72.7      72.1      72.1      72.2      73.2      74.4
        % Ch        (10.6)         (8.1)     (7.1)     (5.3)     (3.3)           1.3      (2.0)     (3.2)      0.2       0.6       5.4       7.0
     U.S.             5.7           5.6       5.5       5.5       5.4            5.4       5.5       5.5       5.5       5.5       5.6       5.7
        % Ch         (8.0)         (7.7)     (4.7)     (3.6)     (2.9)           0.1       0.6       1.4       2.5       1.8       3.5       6.5

     Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
     Oregon           55.2      53.6        53.0       52.3      51.9           52.0      51.9      52.4      52.8      52.5      52.9      53.2
        % Ch         (12.0)    (10.9)       (4.8)      (5.2)     (2.3)           0.6      (0.6)      3.4       3.4      (2.7)      3.1       2.3
     U.S.              4.9       4.8         4.7        4.7       4.7            4.7       4.7       4.8       4.8       4.8       4.9       4.9
        % Ch          (6.8)     (7.7)       (4.5)      (1.5)     (2.3)           1.5       1.5       3.5       0.6       2.4       4.3       7.0

   Information
   Oregon              33.7        33.4      32.9      32.3      32.1           32.2      32.1      32.4      32.8      32.8      33.1      33.5
      % Ch             (7.5)       (3.3)     (6.2)     (6.4)     (2.6)           0.6      (0.4)      3.4       5.4      (0.0)      3.6       4.3
   U.S.                 2.9         2.8       2.8       2.8       2.7            2.7       2.7       2.7       2.7       2.7       2.7       2.8
       % Ch            (7.5)       (8.4)     (5.6)     (2.7)     (3.5)          (2.6)     (0.7)     (1.4)     (1.8)     (0.3)      0.4      13.8

   Financial Activities
   Oregon               97.3       95.6      94.9      94.8      93.4           93.0      92.4      92.2      93.2      93.4      94.4      95.0
      % Ch              (8.5)      (7.0)     (2.7)     (0.7)     (5.7)          (1.8)     (2.2)     (1.2)      4.6       1.0       4.0       2.9
   U.S.                  7.9        7.8       7.7       7.7       7.7            7.6       7.6       7.6       7.6       7.6       7.6       7.6
      % Ch              (6.7)      (6.0)     (2.9)     (1.7)     (1.6)          (0.9)     (1.1)               (0.5)      0.2       0.2       1.7

   Professional and Business S ervices
   Oregon            185.1       179.8      177.1     178.4     179.7          181.3     181.7     182.5     186.6     185.5     187.2     189.3
      % Ch           (12.2)       (10.9)     (5.8)      2.8       3.0            3.7       0.8       1.7       9.3      (2.2)      3.7       4.6
   U.S.               16.9         16.5      16.4      16.4      16.5           16.6      16.7      16.8      17.0      17.2      17.4      17.6
      % Ch           (10.0)        (8.6)     (3.4)      1.2       2.2            2.7       1.4       3.2       4.1       3.7       4.9       5.0




                                                                         91
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                 2012:1     2012:2         2012:3    2012:4    2013:1         2013:2    2013:3    2013:4    2014:1    2014:2    2014:3    2014:4
     Nondurable Manufacturing
     Oregon        48.0       48.2           48.3      48.4      48.4           48.4      48.6      48.7      48.8      48.9      49.0      49.1
        % Ch        0.7        1.5            1.1       0.6       0.5           (0.0)      1.5       1.1       0.9       0.5       0.6       1.0
     U.S.           4.5        4.5            4.5       4.5       4.5            4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4
        % Ch        0.6        0.8            0.4      (0.6)     (0.4)          (0.8)     (0.4)     (0.1)     (1.1)     (0.8)     (0.9)     (0.6)

        Food M anufacturing
        Oregon        23.7        23.9       24.0      24.0      24.1           24.1      24.2      24.4      24.4      24.4      24.5      24.6
          % Ch          0.6        2.3        1.9       0.7       0.7            0.8       1.8       2.0       0.5       0.9       0.9       1.2
        U.S.            1.5        1.5        1.5       1.5       1.5            1.5       1.5       1.5       1.5       1.5       1.5       1.5
           % Ch         2.5        2.7        2.1       0.2       0.4            0.6       1.4       1.9       0.5       1.0       0.9       1.4

        Other Nondurable
        Oregon        24.2        24.3       24.3      24.3      24.3           24.3      24.4      24.4      24.4      24.5      24.5      24.5
          % Ch         0.7         0.8        0.3       0.5       0.4           (0.9)      1.3       0.2       1.3       0.2       0.4       0.7
        U.S.           3.0         3.0        3.0       3.0       3.0            3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0       2.9       2.9       2.9
           % Ch        0.3         0.6        0.2      (0.4)     (0.2)          (1.0)     (1.3)     (1.2)     (1.9)     (1.6)     (1.7)     (1.5)

   Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
   Oregon            319.7       321.6      323.8     325.5     326.6          327.9     330.0     331.7     332.9     334.3     335.6     337.0
      % Ch             2.1          2.4       2.8       2.1       1.4            1.6       2.5       2.0       1.5       1.7       1.5       1.7
   U.S.               25.4         25.6      25.7      25.8      25.9           26.0      26.1      26.2      26.2      26.3      26.4      26.5
      % Ch             3.1          2.4       2.4       1.9       0.8            1.3       1.9       1.5       0.7       1.4       1.4       1.3

     Retail Trade
     Oregon           190.7      191.0      191.8     192.2     192.5          192.7     193.6     194.2     194.6     195.2     195.5     196.1
        % Ch            0.6        0.6        1.7       1.0       0.5            0.6       1.8       1.3       0.8       1.1       0.8       1.1
     U.S.              14.7       14.7       14.8      14.9      14.9           14.9      15.0      15.0      15.0      15.0      15.0      15.0
        % Ch            2.2        1.8        1.9       1.5       0.7            0.7       0.8       0.5      (0.3)      0.8       0.7       0.5

     Wholesale Trade
     Oregon          75.2         75.9       76.6      77.2      77.4           77.8      78.5      79.1      79.5      80.0      80.5      81.0
        % Ch          4.2          3.7        3.8       3.0       1.0            2.5       3.7       3.0       2.0       2.5       2.6       2.6
     U.S.             5.7          5.8        5.8       5.8       5.8            5.9       5.9       5.9       6.0       6.0       6.0       6.1
        % Ch          3.8          2.8        2.8       2.1       0.2            1.8       3.1       2.4       1.6       2.0       2.0       2.1

     Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
     Oregon          53.8      54.7         55.4       56.1      56.8           57.4      57.9      58.3      58.8      59.2      59.5      59.9
        % Ch          4.6        7.0         5.6        4.8       5.1            4.1       3.5       3.2       3.1       2.8       2.3       2.3
     U.S.             5.0        5.1         5.1        5.1       5.2            5.2       5.2       5.3       5.3       5.4       5.4       5.4
        % Ch          5.3        4.1         3.6        2.7       1.8            2.4       3.8       3.3       2.4       2.7       2.8       3.0

   Information
   Oregon              33.9        33.8      33.9      34.4      34.5           34.4      34.5      34.5      34.3      34.3      34.4      34.7
      % Ch              5.8        (1.2)      0.6       5.9       1.0           (0.7)      1.4      (0.6)     (1.5)     (0.6)      1.1       3.8
   U.S.                 2.8         2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8            2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8
       % Ch             5.6        (2.1)     (0.5)      4.9       0.5           (1.3)      0.9      (1.2)     (1.9)     (0.9)      1.0       3.9

   Financial Activities
   Oregon               95.8       96.5      97.4      98.1      99.8          100.6     100.4     100.5     100.5     100.5     100.6     100.8
      % Ch               3.3        2.9       3.9       2.8       7.3            3.0      (0.5)      0.2       0.0       0.2       0.4       0.7
   U.S.                  7.7        7.7       7.8       7.8       7.8            7.8       7.8       7.8       7.7       7.7       7.7       7.7
      % Ch               2.4        1.4       2.9       1.5       0.4           (1.3)     (0.8)     (0.2)     (1.2)     (1.3)     (0.2)      0.0

   Professional and Business S ervices
   Oregon            191.7       193.0      194.2     195.8     197.3          199.5     202.7     205.5     208.4     211.8     215.5     219.0
      % Ch             5.2          2.8       2.5       3.2       3.1            4.6       6.6       5.7       5.7       6.8       7.1       6.6
   U.S.               17.8         17.9      17.9      18.0      18.1           18.3      18.5      18.8      19.0      19.3      19.6      19.8
      % Ch             4.8          1.9       1.4       2.1       2.2            3.6       5.6       4.8       4.9       6.0       6.4       5.9




                                                                         92
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                 2015:1     2015:2        2015:3     2015:4    2016:1         2016:2    2016:3    2016:4    2017:1    2017:2    2017:3    2017:4
     Nondurable Manufacturing
     Oregon        49.2       49.3          49.4       49.5      49.6           49.7      49.8      49.9      50.1      50.2      50.4      50.6
        % Ch         0.7        1.0          0.5        0.8       0.8            1.0       1.0       1.0       1.3       1.3       1.4       1.5
     U.S.            4.4        4.4          4.4        4.4       4.4            4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4
        % Ch        (0.3)      (0.5)        (0.5)      (0.1)     (0.3)          (0.2)     (0.1)     (0.2)      0.1       0.2       0.2       0.3

        Food M anufacturing
        Oregon        24.6        24.7      24.8       24.9      25.0           25.1      25.2      25.2      25.3      25.4      25.5      25.6
          % Ch          1.3        1.1       1.1        1.5       1.4            1.6       1.5       1.4       1.5       1.5       1.6       1.6
        U.S.            1.5        1.5       1.5        1.5       1.5            1.5       1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6
           % Ch         1.4        1.1       1.1        1.7       1.5            1.6       1.5       1.4       1.4       1.4       1.5       1.6

        Other Nondurable
        Oregon        24.5        24.6      24.6       24.6      24.6           24.6      24.7      24.7      24.7      24.8      24.9      25.0
          % Ch         0.1         0.9      (0.2)       0.1       0.2            0.4       0.5       0.5       1.0       1.1       1.1       1.3
        U.S.           2.9         2.9       2.9        2.9       2.9            2.9       2.9       2.9       2.9       2.8       2.8       2.8
           % Ch       (1.1)       (1.3)     (1.3)      (1.1)     (1.4)          (1.2)     (1.0)     (1.0)     (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.3)

   Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
   Oregon            338.5       340.4     342.3      343.7     345.3          346.7     348.3     349.8     351.3     352.6     353.9     355.1
      % Ch             1.8          2.3      2.2        1.7       1.8            1.7       1.8       1.7       1.7       1.6       1.5       1.3
   U.S.               26.6         26.7     26.8       26.9      27.0           27.0      27.1      27.2      27.2      27.3      27.3      27.3
      % Ch             1.4          1.7      1.4        1.1       1.2            1.1       1.1       0.9       0.8       0.5       0.6       0.5

     Retail Trade
     Oregon           196.7      197.7     198.7      199.4     200.1          200.7     201.5     202.1     202.8     203.5     204.2     204.7
        % Ch            1.3        2.0       2.0        1.5       1.4            1.3       1.5       1.3       1.3       1.4       1.3       1.2
     U.S.              15.1       15.1      15.1       15.1      15.1           15.2      15.2      15.2      15.2      15.1      15.1      15.1
        % Ch            0.7        1.0       0.6        0.2       0.4            0.1       0.1      (0.0)     (0.1)     (0.3)     (0.2)     (0.1)

     Wholesale Trade
     Oregon          81.4         81.9      82.3       82.7      83.1           83.5      83.9      84.3      84.6      84.8      85.1      85.3
        % Ch          2.0          2.3       2.1        1.8       1.9            2.0       2.0       1.7       1.5       1.3       1.2       1.0
     U.S.             6.1          6.1       6.1        6.2       6.2            6.2       6.3       6.3       6.3       6.3       6.4       6.4
        % Ch          2.0          2.3       2.1        1.8       1.9            2.0       2.1       1.7       1.5       1.2       1.2       1.0

     Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
     Oregon          60.3      60.8         61.2       61.6      62.1           62.5      63.0      63.4      63.9      64.3      64.7      65.0
        % Ch          3.0        3.1         3.1        2.4       3.0            2.9       2.8       2.9       3.1       2.6       2.3       2.3
     U.S.             5.5        5.5         5.6        5.6       5.6            5.7       5.7       5.7       5.8       5.8       5.8       5.9
        % Ch          3.0        3.2         2.9        2.7       2.6            2.8       3.0       2.6       2.2       1.9       2.0       1.7

   Information
   Oregon              35.0        35.2     35.3       35.5      35.6           35.8      36.0      36.2      36.4      36.6      36.9      37.1
      % Ch              4.0         1.9      1.4        2.0       1.6            1.9       2.0       2.4       2.5       2.4       2.5       2.2
   U.S.                 2.9         2.9      2.9        2.9       2.9            2.9       3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0       3.0
       % Ch             5.3         2.3      1.7        2.1       1.7            1.7       2.5       1.9       1.9       1.7       1.9       1.6

   Financial Activities
   Oregon             100.9      101.0     101.2      101.4     101.4          101.5     101.5     101.5     101.5     101.6     101.7     101.7
      % Ch               0.1       0.5       1.0        0.6       0.0            0.3       0.2       0.1       0.1       0.2       0.3      (0.0)
   U.S.                  7.7       7.7       7.7        7.7       7.7            7.7       7.7       7.7       7.7       7.7       7.7       7.6
      % Ch              (0.2)      0.0       0.8       (0.2)     (0.9)          (0.8)     (0.0)     (0.0)     (0.4)     (0.8)     (0.4)     (0.8)

   Professional and Business S ervices
   Oregon            222.0       224.9     227.7      230.5     233.2          236.1     238.7     240.8     242.7     244.8     246.6     248.4
      % Ch             5.6          5.3      5.0        5.1       4.7            5.1       4.4       3.7       3.2       3.4       3.0       2.9
   U.S.               20.1         20.3     20.5       20.8      21.0           21.2      21.5      21.6      21.8      22.0      22.1      22.3
      % Ch             5.0          4.8      4.5        4.7       4.3            4.7       4.0       3.4       2.9       3.2       2.8       2.7




                                                                         93
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                 2018:1     2018:2        2018:3     2018:4    2019:1         2019:2    2019:3    2019:4    2020:1    2020:2    2020:3    2020:4
     Nondurable Manufacturing
     Oregon        50.7       50.9          51.1       51.2      51.3           51.4      51.5      51.5      51.6      51.7      51.8      51.9
        % Ch        1.2        1.4           1.3        1.3       0.7            0.5       0.5       0.6       0.7       0.6       0.7       0.8
     U.S.           4.4        4.4           4.4        4.4       4.4            4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.4       4.3       4.3
        % Ch        0.3        0.2           0.1        0.1      (0.5)          (0.7)     (0.8)     (0.7)     (0.5)     (0.6)     (0.6)     (0.5)

        Food M anufacturing
        Oregon        25.7        25.8      25.9       26.0      26.1           26.1      26.2      26.2      26.3      26.4      26.4      26.5
          % Ch          1.1        1.7       1.6        1.6       0.8            0.7       0.7       0.8       1.1       1.0       1.1       1.1
        U.S.            1.6        1.6       1.6        1.6       1.6            1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6       1.6
           % Ch         1.5        1.6       1.3        1.3       0.2            0.1       0.1       0.1       0.6       0.4       0.6       0.5

        Other Nondurable
        Oregon        25.0        25.1      25.2       25.2      25.3           25.3      25.3      25.3      25.3      25.4      25.4      25.4
          % Ch         1.3         1.0       0.9        1.0       0.7            0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.4
        U.S.           2.8         2.8       2.8        2.8       2.8            2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8
           % Ch       (0.4)       (0.6)     (0.6)      (0.6)     (0.9)          (1.2)     (1.2)     (1.1)     (1.2)     (1.3)     (1.3)     (1.2)

   Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
   Oregon            356.1       357.2     358.3      359.1     359.8          360.1     360.5     360.8     360.9     361.2     361.3     361.3
      % Ch             1.2          1.3      1.2        1.0       0.8            0.3       0.5       0.3       0.1       0.3       0.1      (0.0)
   U.S.               27.4         27.4     27.4       27.4      27.4           27.4      27.4      27.4      27.4      27.4      27.4      27.4
      % Ch             0.5          0.3      0.0        0.1       0.2            0.0       0.2       0.2      (0.1)      0.1      (0.2)     (0.1)

     Retail Trade
     Oregon           205.2      205.8     206.3      206.7     207.1          207.2     207.3     207.4     207.3     207.4     207.3     207.1
        % Ch            0.9        1.1       1.0        0.9       0.8            0.0       0.3       0.2      (0.2)      0.1      (0.2)     (0.4)
     U.S.              15.1       15.1      15.1       15.1      15.1           15.1      15.1      15.1      15.0      15.0      15.0      15.0
        % Ch           (0.2)      (0.4)     (0.5)      (0.3)     (0.1)          (0.3)     (0.2)     (0.0)     (0.3)     (0.2)     (0.7)     (0.6)

     Wholesale Trade
     Oregon          85.5         85.7      85.9       86.1      86.2           86.4      86.6      86.7      86.8      87.0      87.1      87.3
        % Ch          1.0          0.9       1.0        0.8       0.7            0.7       0.8       0.6       0.5       0.7       0.7       0.6
     U.S.             6.4          6.4       6.4        6.4       6.4            6.5       6.5       6.5       6.5       6.5       6.5       6.5
        % Ch          1.0          0.8       1.0        0.8       0.7            0.7       0.8       0.6       0.5       0.7       0.7       0.6

     Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
     Oregon          65.4      65.8         66.1       66.3      66.4           66.5      66.6      66.7      66.8      66.9      66.9      66.9
        % Ch          2.3        2.2         1.9        1.5       0.7            0.5       0.6       0.4       0.6       0.4       0.3       0.3
     U.S.             5.9        5.9         5.9        5.9       5.9            5.9       5.9       5.9       5.9       5.9       5.9       5.9
        % Ch          1.7        1.4         0.4        0.3       0.3            0.1       0.4       0.2       0.1       0.1       0.2       0.2

   Information
   Oregon              37.2        37.3     37.4       37.4      37.5           37.5      37.5      37.6      37.6      37.6      37.6      37.7
      % Ch              1.8         0.6      0.9        0.8       0.6            0.0       0.3       0.3       0.4       0.3       0.1       0.4
   U.S.                 3.0         3.0      3.0        3.1       3.1            3.1       3.1       3.1       3.1       3.1       3.1       3.1
       % Ch             1.7         0.9      1.2        1.0       0.8            0.3       0.6       0.5       0.6       0.5       0.3       0.6

   Financial Activities
   Oregon             101.7      101.7     101.8      101.8     101.8          101.8     101.8     101.8     101.8     101.8     101.8     101.8
      % Ch               0.0       0.2       0.1       (0.1)      0.0            0.0       0.2      (0.0)      0.0       0.1      (0.1)      0.0
   U.S.                  7.6       7.6       7.6        7.6       7.6            7.6       7.6       7.6       7.6       7.5       7.5       7.5
      % Ch              (0.9)     (1.5)     (0.9)      (1.0)     (0.5)          (0.3)      0.2      (0.0)     (0.0)     (0.3)     (0.1)     (0.2)

   Professional and Business S ervices
   Oregon            250.2       252.2     254.2      256.2     258.2          260.4     262.6     264.7     266.6     268.7     270.8     272.7
      % Ch             2.9          3.3      3.3        3.2       3.1            3.5       3.4       3.1       3.0       3.3       3.1       2.8
   U.S.               22.4         22.6     22.7       22.9      23.1           23.3      23.5      23.6      23.8      24.0      24.2      24.3
      % Ch             2.7          3.1      3.1        3.0       2.9            3.3       3.3       3.0       2.8       3.1       3.0       2.7




                                                                         94
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                   2009:1       2009:2     2009:3    2009:4    2010:1         2010:2   2010:3    2010:4    2011:1    2011:2    2011:3    2011:4
   Education and Health S ervices
   Oregon           221.8         223.0     224.4     225.2     226.9          227.8    228.9     229.9     232.9     234.4     236.6     238.7
      % Ch            (0.3)         2.2       2.4       1.5       3.0            1.7      1.9       1.7       5.4       2.5       3.8       3.7
   U.S.              19.1          19.1      19.2      19.3      19.4           19.5     19.6      19.7      19.8      20.0      20.1      20.2
      % Ch             2.0          1.1       1.9       1.9       1.9            2.1      2.0       2.6       2.0       2.5       2.0       2.2

     Educational S ervices
     Oregon           30.3        30.4       31.0      31.0      31.4           31.4     31.4      31.5      32.0      31.7      32.0      32.3
        % Ch           (0.5)       2.4        7.3      (0.2)      5.3            0.8     (0.3)      1.6       6.3      (3.6)      4.1       3.1
     U.S.               3.1        3.1        3.1       3.1       3.1            3.1      3.2       3.2       3.2       3.2       3.2       3.2
        % Ch            3.5       (1.1)       1.0       0.9       3.1            2.6      1.7       2.8       3.1       2.9       2.6      (1.5)

     Health Care and S ocial Assistance
     Oregon         191.6        192.6      193.4     194.3     195.5          196.4    197.5     198.4     200.9     202.7     204.6     206.4
        % Ch         (0.3)         2.1        1.7       1.8       2.7            1.8      2.3       1.7       5.3       3.5       3.8       3.8
     U.S.            16.0         16.1       16.1      16.2      16.3           16.4     16.5      16.6      16.6      16.7      16.8      16.9
        % Ch          1.7          1.5        2.1       2.1       1.7            2.0      2.0       2.5       1.8       2.5       1.8       2.9

   Leisure and Hospitality
   Oregon            165.2       163.0      162.1     161.4     161.4          162.1    162.1     161.4     165.8     167.6     170.4     171.0
      % Ch            (9.3)       (5.2)      (2.4)     (1.5)     (0.2)           1.8      0.1      (1.6)     11.3       4.4       6.7       1.4
   U.S.               13.2        13.1       13.1      13.0      12.9           13.0     13.1      13.1      13.1      13.2      13.3      13.3
      % Ch            (3.5)       (2.8)      (0.9)     (2.7)     (0.9)           1.9      1.6       0.4       1.7       2.6       1.7       0.4

   Other S ervices
   Oregon              58.6        57.6      57.4      57.1      56.9           57.6     57.9      57.4      58.4      57.3      57.9      58.5
      % Ch             (8.3)       (6.1)     (1.6)     (2.2)     (1.5)           5.3      2.2      (3.5)      6.7      (7.3)      4.7       3.8
   U.S.                 5.4         5.4       5.4       5.3       5.3            5.3      5.4       5.4       5.4       5.4       5.5       5.5
      % Ch             (4.9)       (2.7)     (0.8)     (2.7)                     1.6      2.2       3.3       1.0       1.1       0.5      (0.2)

 Government
 Oregon              300.6       299.6      299.8     298.1     298.4          302.6    299.2     297.8     298.2     295.8     291.0     289.6
   % Ch                0.1        (1.3)       0.4      (2.2)      0.4            5.8     (4.5)     (1.9)      0.6      (3.2)     (6.3)     (1.9)
 U.S.                 22.6        22.6       22.5      22.5      22.5           22.8     22.4      22.3      22.2      22.1      22.0      21.9
   % Ch                0.4         0.8       (1.7)     (0.3)     (0.3)           4.8     (5.8)     (2.6)     (1.3)     (1.3)     (2.1)     (1.4)

   Federal Government
   Oregon           30.1           30.5      29.7      29.6      29.7           32.8     30.2      29.0      28.5      27.9      27.8      27.6
      % Ch            2.2           5.0     (10.0)     (0.4)      0.4           49.0    (27.8)    (15.2)     (7.0)     (8.0)     (1.4)     (2.5)
   U.S.               2.8           2.9       2.8       2.8       2.9            3.2      2.9       2.8       2.9       2.8       2.8       2.8
      % Ch            2.7          10.5      (5.6)      2.2       6.9           49.6    (28.3)    (11.9)      0.6      (0.4)     (1.5)     (2.3)

   S tate Government
   Oregon            78.1          78.0      77.8      78.7      79.1           79.6     79.8      80.2      80.6      80.5      80.0      79.7
       % Ch           2.2          (0.6)     (1.0)      5.0       1.8            2.4      1.3       1.9       2.0      (0.7)     (2.4)     (1.6)

     Education S tate Government
     Oregon            29.1      29.1        28.6      29.1      29.2           29.5     29.9      30.5      30.9      31.1      31.2      31.2
       % Ch             3.9      (0.2)       (5.9)      6.6       2.0            3.8      5.5       8.4       4.9       3.6       0.8       0.4

   Local Government
   Oregon           192.4        191.1      192.4     189.8     189.7          190.3    189.2     188.6     189.2     187.5     183.3     182.4
     % Ch            (1.1)        (2.6)       2.7      (5.3)     (0.2)           1.3     (2.4)     (1.2)      1.2      (3.5)     (8.7)     (1.9)

     Education Local Government
     Oregon          103.3    102.1         104.5     101.4     100.9          101.2     99.6      99.3      99.6      98.4      95.0      94.3
       % Ch           (0.2)     (4.4)         9.6     (11.3)     (2.0)           1.4     (6.5)     (1.2)      1.2      (4.7)    (13.0)     (2.8)




                                                                         95
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                   2012:1       2012:2     2012:3    2012:4    2013:1         2013:2    2013:3    2013:4    2014:1    2014:2    2014:3    2014:4
   Education and Health S ervices
   Oregon           240.6         242.4     244.5     246.0     247.5          249.1     250.4     251.8     253.7     255.6     257.2     259.0
      % Ch             3.1          3.1       3.5       2.5       2.3            2.7       2.1       2.3       3.0       3.0       2.6       2.8
   U.S.              20.2          20.3      20.4      20.4      20.4           20.4      20.5      20.5      20.6      20.7      20.8      20.8
      % Ch             1.5          1.3       1.8       0.6      (0.7)           1.2       0.7       0.7       2.4       1.7       1.1       1.2

     Educational S ervices
     Oregon           32.5        32.5       32.6      32.7      32.7           32.7      32.8      32.8      32.9      33.0      33.1      33.2
        % Ch            2.1        1.0        1.3       0.5       0.2            0.0       1.1       0.4       0.6       1.2       2.1       1.0
     U.S.               3.2        3.2        3.2       3.2       3.1            3.1       3.1       3.1       3.1       3.0       3.0       3.0
        % Ch           (1.7)      (3.1)      (2.4)     (2.8)     (2.5)          (2.2)     (2.3)     (2.3)     (2.2)     (2.3)     (1.8)     (1.9)

     Health Care and S ocial Assistance
     Oregon         208.1        209.9      211.9     213.4     214.8          216.4     217.6     219.0     220.8     222.6     224.1     225.8
        % Ch          3.3          3.4        3.9       2.8       2.6            3.1       2.2       2.6       3.3       3.3       2.7       3.0
     U.S.            17.0         17.1       17.2      17.3      17.3           17.3      17.4      17.4      17.6      17.7      17.8      17.8
        % Ch          2.1          2.2        2.6       1.2      (0.4)           1.8       1.2       1.2       3.2       2.4       1.6       1.7

   Leisure and Hospitality
   Oregon            172.5       174.1      175.3     175.8     176.9          177.3     177.6     178.1     178.4     178.8     179.2     179.7
      % Ch             3.6         3.8        2.7       1.3       2.5            0.9       0.5       1.1       0.8       0.9       0.9       1.1
   U.S.               13.4        13.4       13.5      13.5      13.5           13.5      13.5      13.5      13.5      13.4      13.4      13.4
      % Ch             3.0         2.3        1.0       0.1       0.5           (0.5)     (0.6)      0.4      (0.3)     (0.7)     (0.3)     (0.2)

   Other S ervices
   Oregon              58.9        59.4      59.8      60.2      60.5           60.8      61.1      61.4      61.9      62.2      62.6      62.9
      % Ch              3.1         3.3       2.5       2.6       2.1            2.2       2.0       2.0       3.0       2.2       2.3       2.3
   U.S.                 5.5         5.4       5.4       5.5       5.5            5.4       5.4       5.4       5.5       5.5       5.5       5.5
      % Ch              0.4        (1.4)      0.8       0.4       0.1           (1.0)      0.1       0.0       0.6       0.6       1.0      (0.8)

 Government
 Oregon              289.6       289.8      290.1     290.4     290.9          291.4     291.8     292.4     293.1     293.6     294.1     294.7
   % Ch               (0.1)        0.4        0.3       0.5       0.7            0.6       0.6       0.8       0.9       0.7       0.7       0.8
 U.S.                 21.9        21.9       21.9      21.9      21.9           22.0      22.0      22.1      22.2      22.2      22.3      22.3
   % Ch               (0.6)       (0.3)      (0.2)      0.1       0.5            1.1       1.3       1.3       1.3       0.7       0.5       0.7

   Federal Government
   Oregon           27.6           27.6      27.5      27.5      27.4           27.4      27.3      27.3      27.3      27.2      27.2      27.2
      % Ch          (0.3)          (0.3)     (0.5)     (0.6)     (0.6)          (0.7)     (0.7)     (0.7)     (0.6)     (0.5)     (0.4)     (0.6)
   U.S.               2.8           2.8       2.8       2.7       2.7            2.7       2.7       2.7       2.6       2.6       2.6       2.6
      % Ch          (3.1)          (3.0)     (3.2)     (3.2)     (3.0)          (3.1)     (3.0)     (2.8)     (2.4)     (2.2)     (1.9)     (1.5)

   S tate Government
   Oregon            79.5          79.3      79.2      79.2      79.3           79.4      79.5      79.7      79.9      80.0      80.1      80.3
      % Ch           (1.0)         (0.7)     (0.4)     (0.0)      0.1            0.5       0.8       1.0       0.9       0.6       0.6       0.9

     Education S tate Government
     Oregon            31.3      31.3        31.3      31.4      31.4           31.4      31.5      31.6      31.6      31.7      31.8      31.9
       % Ch             0.5       0.2         0.3       0.6       0.2            0.5       1.1       0.7       0.6       0.9       1.5       0.8

   Local Government
   Oregon           182.5        182.9      183.3     183.7     184.2          184.6     185.0     185.4     185.9     186.3     186.7     187.2
     % Ch             0.3          0.9        0.8       0.9       1.1            0.8       0.8       0.9       1.2       0.9       0.8       1.0

     Education Local Government
     Oregon           94.9      95.4         96.0      96.5      96.8           97.2      97.6      97.9      98.2      98.6      99.0      99.3
       % Ch            2.4       2.3          2.4       2.0       1.5            1.4       1.7       1.4       1.3       1.4       1.8       1.3




                                                                         96
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                   2015:1       2015:2     2015:3    2015:4    2016:1         2016:2    2016:3    2016:4    2017:1    2017:2    2017:3    2017:4
   Education and Health S ervices
   Oregon           260.6         262.6     264.6     266.9     269.1          271.0     273.0     275.2     276.6     278.6     280.2     282.1
      % Ch             2.5          3.1       3.1       3.4       3.4            2.8       2.9       3.3       2.1       2.8       2.4       2.8
   U.S.              20.9          21.0      21.2      21.3      21.4           21.6      21.7      21.8      21.9      22.0      22.1      22.2
      % Ch             1.7          2.3       2.1       2.4       2.9            2.7       2.1       2.4       1.4       1.9       1.5       1.9

     Educational S ervices
     Oregon           33.2        33.3       33.4      33.5      33.6           33.6      33.7      33.9      33.9      34.0      34.1      34.2
        % Ch            0.3        0.8        1.5       0.5       1.1            0.7       1.2       1.3       0.8       1.0       1.1       1.1
     U.S.               3.0        3.0        3.0       3.0       3.0            3.0       3.0       2.9       2.9       2.9       2.9       2.9
        % Ch           (1.3)      (1.4)      (1.2)     (1.5)     (1.0)          (1.2)     (0.5)     (0.4)     (0.2)     (1.1)     (0.9)     (1.0)

     Health Care and S ocial Assistance
     Oregon         227.4        229.3      231.2     233.4     235.5          237.3     239.2     241.3     242.7     244.6     246.1     247.9
        % Ch          2.9          3.5        3.3       3.8       3.8            3.1       3.2       3.6       2.3       3.1       2.5       3.0
     U.S.            17.9         18.1       18.2      18.3      18.5           18.6      18.7      18.9      18.9      19.1      19.2      19.3
        % Ch          2.2          2.9        2.6       3.1       3.5            3.3       2.5       2.8       1.7       2.4       1.9       2.3

   Leisure and Hospitality
   Oregon            180.2       180.3      180.8     181.2     181.5          181.7     181.9     182.2     182.4     182.6     182.6     182.8
      % Ch             1.1         0.2        1.2       0.9       0.6            0.2       0.5       0.6       0.6       0.4       0.1       0.3
   U.S.               13.4        13.4       13.4      13.4      13.4           13.4      13.4      13.4      13.4      13.4      13.3      13.3
      % Ch            (0.1)       (0.7)      (0.3)      0.0      (0.3)          (0.4)      0.2       0.3       0.1      (0.6)     (0.4)     (0.2)

   Other S ervices
   Oregon              63.3        63.6      63.8      64.0      64.4           64.7      64.8      65.0      65.3      65.5      65.7      65.9
      % Ch              2.5         1.5       1.3       1.3       2.8            1.5       1.1       1.2       1.7       1.3       1.0       1.1
   U.S.                 5.5         5.5       5.4       5.4       5.4            5.4       5.4       5.4       5.4       5.4       5.4       5.4
      % Ch             (0.4)       (0.2)     (0.4)     (0.6)     (0.3)          (0.4)     (0.1)     (0.3)     (0.4)     (0.6)     (0.6)     (0.7)

 Government
 Oregon              295.4       295.9      296.5     297.1     297.7          298.5     299.2     300.0     300.9     301.7     302.4     303.3
   % Ch                1.0         0.7        0.7       0.8       0.9            1.0       1.0       1.1       1.2       1.0       1.0       1.1
 U.S.                 22.3        22.4       22.4      22.5      22.5           22.6      22.7      22.8      22.8      22.9      23.0      23.0
   % Ch                0.9         0.7        1.0       1.0       1.0            1.2       1.3       1.2       1.2       1.2       1.1       1.0

   Federal Government
   Oregon           27.1           27.1      27.0      27.0      26.9           26.9      26.9      26.8      26.8      26.8      26.8      26.8
      % Ch          (0.6)          (0.7)     (0.6)     (0.7)     (0.5)          (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.0)     (0.0)     (0.1)     (0.1)
   U.S.               2.6           2.6       2.6       2.6       2.6            2.5       2.5       2.5       2.5       2.5       2.5       2.5
      % Ch          (1.5)          (1.5)     (1.4)     (1.4)     (1.0)          (1.0)     (1.0)     (1.0)     (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.5)     (0.5)

   S tate Government
   Oregon            80.5          80.6      80.8      81.1      81.3           81.5      81.7      82.0      82.2      82.4      82.7      82.9
       % Ch           0.9           0.8       1.0       1.1       1.0            1.1       1.2       1.3       1.1       1.1       1.1       1.2

     Education S tate Government
     Oregon            31.9      32.0        32.2      32.3      32.4           32.5      32.7      32.8      32.9      33.1      33.2      33.4
       % Ch             1.1       1.0         1.8       1.2       1.4            1.7       2.0       1.6       1.5       1.8       2.1       1.7

   Local Government
   Oregon           187.8        188.2      188.6     189.0     189.5          190.0     190.6     191.2     191.9     192.4     192.9     193.5
     % Ch             1.2          0.9        0.7       0.9       1.0            1.2       1.1       1.3       1.4       1.2       1.1       1.2

     Education Local Government
     Oregon           99.6      99.9        100.3     100.5     100.9          101.3     101.7     102.0     102.3     102.7     103.1     103.4
       % Ch            1.0       1.3          1.5       1.1       1.5            1.4       1.7       1.3       1.2       1.4       1.6       1.3




                                                                         97
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Employment by Industry
(Oregon - Thousands, U.S. - Millions)
                   2018:1       2018:2     2018:3    2018:4    2019:1         2019:2    2019:3    2019:4    2020:1    2020:2    2020:3    2020:4
   Education and Health S ervices
   Oregon           283.9         286.0     287.6     289.2     291.0          292.7     294.1     295.6     297.0     298.5     300.1     301.8
      % Ch             2.5          3.1       2.3       2.2       2.4            2.4       2.0       2.0       1.9       2.0       2.2       2.2
   U.S.              22.2          22.4      22.4      22.5      22.5           22.6      22.7      22.7      22.8      22.8      22.9      22.9
      % Ch             1.1          2.0       1.4       1.3       0.7            1.3       0.8       0.9       0.8       0.9       0.8       0.6

     Educational S ervices
     Oregon           34.3        34.5       34.6      34.7      34.8           34.9      35.0      35.1      35.2      35.4      35.4      35.6
        % Ch            1.7        1.5        1.1       1.3       1.0            1.5       1.1       1.2       1.5       1.5       1.0       1.2
     U.S.               2.9        2.9        2.9       2.9       2.9            2.9       2.9       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8       2.8
        % Ch           (0.9)      (1.6)      (1.1)     (1.2)     (1.5)          (2.4)     (1.8)     (1.9)     (0.5)     (0.8)     (0.7)     (0.8)

     Health Care and S ocial Assistance
     Oregon         249.6        251.6      253.1     254.5     256.2          257.8     259.1     260.5     261.8     263.2     264.7     266.2
        % Ch          2.6          3.3        2.4       2.3       2.6            2.5       2.1       2.1       2.0       2.1       2.3       2.3
     U.S.            19.3         19.4       19.5      19.6      19.7           19.8      19.8      19.9      19.9      20.0      20.0      20.1
        % Ch          1.4          2.5        1.8       1.7       1.0            1.8       1.2       1.3       1.0       1.2       1.0       0.8

   Leisure and Hospitality
   Oregon            182.3       182.5      182.6     182.7     183.0          183.1     183.1     183.3     183.4     183.6     183.7     183.8
      % Ch            (1.0)        0.5        0.1       0.2       0.7            0.2       0.1       0.4       0.2       0.5       0.1       0.3
   U.S.               13.3        13.3       13.3      13.3      13.3           13.3      13.2      13.2      13.2      13.2      13.2      13.2
      % Ch            (0.1)       (1.0)      (0.6)     (0.3)      0.1           (0.7)     (0.3)      0.0      (0.1)     (0.7)     (0.5)     (0.1)

   Other S ervices
   Oregon              66.1        66.2      66.3      66.5      66.8           67.0      67.1      67.3      67.6      67.8      68.0      68.1
      % Ch              1.2         0.9       0.9       1.1       1.6            1.2       1.0       1.1       1.6       1.3       0.9       1.0
   U.S.                 5.4         5.4       5.4       5.4       5.3            5.3       5.3       5.3       5.3       5.3       5.3       5.3
      % Ch             (0.6)       (0.9)     (0.8)     (0.9)     (0.8)          (1.0)     (0.8)     (0.9)     (0.2)     (0.4)     (0.3)     (0.3)

 Government
 Oregon              304.2       304.9      305.7     306.5     307.4          308.1     308.8     309.6     310.9     315.7     313.8     313.0
   % Ch                1.2         1.0        1.0       1.1       1.2            1.0       0.9       1.1       1.6       6.3      (2.3)     (1.1)
 U.S.                 23.1        23.1       23.2      23.2      23.3           23.3      23.4      23.4      23.5      23.9      23.7      23.6
   % Ch                1.0         0.9        0.9       0.9       0.9            0.8       0.7       0.7       1.3       6.9      (3.0)     (1.7)

   Federal Government
   Oregon           26.9           26.9      26.9      26.9      26.9           26.9      26.9      26.9      27.2      31.3      28.7      27.0
      % Ch            1.7          (0.1)     (0.1)     (0.1)     (0.1)          (0.2)     (0.2)     (0.2)      5.7      73.6     (29.3)    (21.6)
   U.S.               2.5           2.5       2.5       2.5       2.5            2.5       2.5       2.5       2.5       2.9       2.7       2.5
      % Ch          (0.5)          (0.4)     (0.4)     (0.4)     (0.4)          (0.4)     (0.4)     (0.4)      5.1      67.3     (27.9)    (20.5)

   S tate Government
   Oregon            83.1          83.3      83.6      83.8      84.0           84.2      84.4      84.6      84.8      85.0      85.2      85.5
       % Ch           1.0           1.0       1.1       1.1       1.0            0.9       1.0       1.1       0.9       0.9       1.0       1.1

     Education S tate Government
     Oregon            33.6      33.7        33.9      34.0      34.2           34.3      34.5      34.7      34.8      35.0      35.2      35.3
       % Ch             2.2       1.8         2.2       1.7       1.6            1.9       2.2       1.8       1.6       1.9       2.3       1.8

   Local Government
   Oregon           194.1        194.7      195.2     195.8     196.5          197.0     197.5     198.1     198.8     199.4     199.9     200.5
     % Ch             1.2          1.1        1.1       1.2       1.4            1.1       1.1       1.2       1.4       1.1       1.0       1.2

     Education Local Government
     Oregon          103.8    104.1         104.6     104.9     105.2          105.6     106.0     106.4     106.7     107.0     107.5     107.8
       % Ch            1.3      1.4           1.6       1.3       1.2            1.4       1.6       1.3       1.2       1.4       1.6       1.3




                                                                         98
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Other Economic Indicators

                                     2009:1      2009:2      2009:3      2009:4      2010:1     2010:2      2010:3      2010:4      2011:1     2011:2      2011:3      2011:4

GDP (Bil of 2005 $) Chain Weight
(in billions of $)                  12,832.6    12,810.0    12,860.8    13,019.0    13,138.8   13,194.9    13,278.5    13,380.7    13,444.3   13,508.1    13,622.8    13,722.1
    % Ch                                (4.9)       (0.7)        1.6         5.0         3.7        1.7         2.6         3.1         1.9        1.9         3.4         2.9


  Price and Wage Indicators
GDP Implicit Price Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100           109.5       109.6       109.8       109.7       110.0      110.5       111.1       111.2       111.7      112.5       113.0       113.0
  % Ch                                  1.1         0.3         0.7        (0.2)        1.0        1.9         2.1         0.4         2.0        2.9         1.7        (0.0)

Personal Consumption Deflator,
 Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100          108.3       108.8       109.6       110.3       110.9      110.9       111.1       111.6       112.6      113.5       113.9       114.4
   % Ch                                (1.6)        1.9         2.9         2.7         2.1       (0.0)        0.8         1.7         3.9        3.2         1.4         1.5



CPI, Urban Consumers, 1982-84=100
Portland-Salem, OR-WA                 214.0       214.2       216.8       217.6       217.3      217.8       218.6       219.8       221.1      222.6       224.0       224.7
   % Ch                                (3.9)        0.5         4.8         1.6        (0.7)       0.9         1.5         2.2         2.5        2.7         2.5         1.3
U.S.                                  212.5       213.5       215.4       216.9       217.5      217.3       218.0       219.5       222.3      224.5       225.3       226.3
  % Ch                                 (2.4)        1.9         3.7         2.7         1.3       (0.5)        1.4         2.6         5.2        4.1         1.5         1.8

OR Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                          42.4        43.0       43.0        43.4        43.5       43.8        44.2        44.4        44.4       44.5        44.9        45.3
  % Ch                                  (2.2)        6.2       (0.1)        3.0         1.3        2.7         4.0         1.3         0.3        0.7         3.7         3.7

U.S. Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                          47.1        48.0       48.2        48.6        48.6       49.2        49.6        49.7        50.0       50.2        50.6        51.0
  % Ch                                  (7.8)        7.7        1.5         3.0         0.7        4.3         3.7         1.0         1.9        2.2         3.3         2.9


       Housing Indicators
FHFA Oregon Housing Price Index
Index 1987 Q1=100                     430.3       415.6       402.3       394.9       389.2      384.8       384.2       377.3       362.0      351.7       335.0       330.7
  % Ch                                 (1.8)      (13.0)      (12.2)       (7.2)       (5.6)      (4.4)       (0.7)       (7.0)      (15.2)     (11.0)      (17.6)       (5.1)



FHFA National Housing Price Index
(1980Q1=100)                          355.9       347.6       339.2       337.3       333.3      331.6       334.7       331.8       322.8      315.3       306.7       304.5
   % Ch                                 3.9        (9.0)       (9.3)       (2.2)       (4.6)      (2.1)        3.8        (3.3)      (10.4)      (8.9)      (10.5)       (2.8)

Housing Starts
Oregon (Thous)                           8.2         7.6         6.7         7.8        8.1         7.5         7.3         7.6        8.0         8.2         7.4        7.3
   % Ch                                (50.9)      (27.2)      (40.2)       88.9       14.1       (26.8)       (8.9)       17.5       22.6        10.3       (35.0)      (4.0)
U.S. (M illions)                         0.5         0.5         0.6         0.6        0.6         0.6         0.6         0.5        0.6         0.6         0.6        0.6
   % Ch                                (60.5)        6.8        47.0       (13.3)      37.5        (8.0)      (11.2)      (27.8)      36.6       (14.0)       29.8       27.7


        Other Indicators
Industrial Production Index,
U.S, 1997=100                           86.7        84.1       85.2        86.3        88.0       89.5        91.0        91.7        92.6       93.1        94.3        95.1
  % Ch                                 (18.9)      (11.5)       5.3         5.6         8.1        7.1         6.7         3.1         4.2        1.9         5.4         3.3

Prime Rate (Percent)                     3.3         3.3         3.3         3.3         3.3        3.3         3.3         3.3         3.3        3.3         3.3         3.3
   % Ch                                (58.8)        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0




                                                                                     99
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Other Economic Indicators

                                     2012:1     2012:2     2012:3     2012:4     2013:1     2013:2     2013:3     2013:4     2014:1     2014:2     2014:3     2014:4

GDP (Bil of 2005 $) Chain Weight
(in billions of $)                  13,802.5   13,875.0   13,956.7   14,060.9   14,134.6   14,256.4   14,368.5   14,471.0   14,590.9   14,716.4   14,846.9   14,979.3
    % Ch                                 2.4        2.1        2.4        3.0        2.1        3.5        3.2        2.9        3.4        3.5        3.6        3.6


  Price and Wage Indicators
GDP Implicit Price Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100           113.3      113.6      114.1      114.5      115.1      115.5      115.9      116.4      117.0      117.5      118.0      118.6
  % Ch                                  1.2        1.0        1.7        1.6        1.8        1.4        1.5        1.7        2.0        1.9        1.8        1.8

Personal Consumption Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100           114.8      115.2      115.7      116.2      116.7      117.2      117.7      118.2      118.8      119.4      119.9      120.5
  % Ch                                  1.6        1.2        1.9        1.6        1.7        1.7        1.7        1.8        2.0        1.9        1.8        1.9



CPI, Urban Consumers, 1982-84=10
Portland-Salem, OR-WA                 225.8      226.2      227.0      227.9      228.8      229.7      230.9      231.9      232.9      234.0      235.4      236.5
   % Ch                                 1.9        0.7        1.6        1.6        1.6        1.6        2.0        1.7        1.8        1.9        2.3        2.0
U.S.                                  227.3      227.9      229.2      230.2      231.3      232.4      233.5      234.7      235.9      237.0      238.1      239.2
   % Ch                                 1.7        1.1        2.3        1.8        1.9        1.8        1.9        2.0        2.1        1.9        1.8        2.0


OR Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                         45.7       46.0       46.4       46.7        47.1      47.4       47.8       48.1       48.4       48.8       49.1        49.5
   % Ch                                 3.2        3.4        2.8        3.1         3.3       3.0        2.7        2.7        2.9        2.7        2.8         3.0


U.S. Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                         51.4       51.8       52.1       52.5        52.9      53.3       53.6       53.9       54.3       54.7       55.0        55.4
   % Ch                                 2.9        2.9        2.8        2.9         3.3       2.9        2.5        2.4        2.8        2.5        2.6         2.7


       Housing Indicators
FHFA Oregon Housing Price Index
Index 1987 Q1=100                     327.0      329.0      332.3      335.7      337.0      338.7      341.5      342.7      344.8      347.3      351.7      355.7
  % Ch                                 (4.3)       2.4        4.1        4.1        1.5        2.1        3.3        1.5        2.4        3.0        5.1        4.6



FHFA National Housing Price Index
(1980Q1=100)                          302.8      306.6      311.8      317.0      319.9      323.1      327.2      329.3      332.2      335.3      340.3      344.8
   % Ch                                (2.3)       5.2        7.0        6.8        3.6        4.1        5.2        2.7        3.5        3.8        6.1        5.4


Housing Starts
Oregon (Thous)                           7.4        7.5       8.0        8.5         9.3        9.5      10.6       11.7       12.4       13.1       14.1       15.6
  % Ch                                   5.6        3.3      30.3       30.5        39.3        8.3      58.0       47.7       26.3       25.0       35.3       48.4
U.S. (M illions)                        0.7        0.7        0.9        1.0         1.2       1.3        1.4        1.4        1.5        1.5        1.6        1.7
  % Ch                                 33.6       36.2       98.4      103.3        66.2      43.6       27.6       20.4       13.2       13.0       18.4       11.8


        Other Indicators
Industrial Production Index,
U.S, 1997=100                          96.0       96.6       97.2       97.7        98.3      99.4      100.4      101.2      102.1      103.1      104.1      105.1
  % Ch                                  4.1        2.2        2.6        2.3         2.3       4.6        4.1        3.3        3.6        3.9        3.9        3.9

Prime Rate (Percent)                     3.3        3.3        3.3       3.6        4.0        4.5        5.0        5.5        6.0        6.4         6.5       7.0
   % Ch                                  0.0        0.0        6.9      34.7       56.2       59.0       52.2       51.0       40.2       33.8         6.5      31.7




                                                                                 100
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Other Economic Indicators

                                     2015:1     2015:2     2015:3     2015:4     2016:1     2016:2     2016:3     2016:4     2017:1     2017:2      2017:3     2017:4

GDP (Bil of 2005 $) Chain Weight
(in billions of $)                  15,102.2   15,226.5   15,347.0   15,461.0   15,589.1   15,714.3   15,824.2   15,931.8   16,036.7   16,146.8    16,249.9   16,354.7
   % Ch                                  3.3        3.3        3.2        3.0        3.4        3.3        2.8        2.7        2.7        2.8         2.6        2.6


  Price and Wage Indicators
GDP Implicit Price Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100           119.2      119.7      120.2      120.8      121.3      121.9      122.4      122.9      123.5      124.1       124.6      125.1
   % Ch                                  2.1        1.8        1.7        1.8        2.0        1.8        1.7        1.7        2.0        1.7         1.7        1.6

Personal Consumption Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100           121.1      121.7      122.3      123.0      123.6      124.2      124.8      125.4      126.1      126.7       127.3      127.9
  % Ch                                  2.0        2.1        2.1        2.1        2.0        2.0        2.0        2.0        2.0        1.9         1.9        1.9



CPI, Urban Consumers, 1982-84=10
Portland-Salem, OR-WA                 237.6      238.9      240.4      241.6      242.4      244.0      245.4      246.5      247.7      249.0       250.7      251.6
   % Ch                                 1.9        2.2        2.4        2.1        1.3        2.6        2.3        1.8        2.0        2.1         2.9        1.4
U.S.                                  240.4      241.7      243.0      244.4      245.6      246.9      248.2      249.5      250.8      252.0       253.2      254.4
   % Ch                                 2.0        2.2        2.2        2.2        2.1        2.1        2.1        2.1        2.1        2.0         2.0        1.9


OR Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                         49.8        50.2       50.5      50.9       51.3       51.7        52.0       52.4       52.8      53.2         53.6      54.1
   % Ch                                  3.0        2.8        2.9        3.0        2.8        3.1        3.0        3.0        3.2        3.0         3.1        3.1

U.S. Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                         55.8        56.1       56.5      56.9       57.3       57.7        58.1       58.5       59.0      59.4         59.9      60.3
   % Ch                                 2.9         2.6        2.7       2.7        3.0        2.8         2.8        2.8        3.3       3.0          3.0       3.0


       Housing Indicators
FHFA Oregon Housing Price Index
Index 1987 Q1=100                     360.2      364.8      370.0      374.6      376.6      381.3      384.3      386.7      392.3      395.3       401.3      405.8
   % Ch                                  5.2        5.2        5.9        5.0        2.2        5.1        3.1        2.5        5.9        3.1         6.2        4.6



FHFA National Housing Price Index
(1980Q1=100)                          349.8      354.7      360.4      365.2      367.2      372.3      375.3      377.7      384.8      387.8       396.5      402.4
   % Ch                                  5.9        5.7        6.5        5.5        2.3        5.6        3.3        2.6        7.7        3.1         9.3        6.1

Housing Starts
Oregon (Thous)                         16.9        18.3       19.8      21.1       22.2       23.0        23.9       24.7       24.8      25.1         25.4      25.6
  % Ch                                 37.5        38.5       37.4      27.7       21.7       15.3        17.3       13.3        1.8       5.7          3.9       4.3
U.S. (M illions)                         1.7        1.7        1.8        1.8        1.8        1.8        1.8        1.8        1.8        1.8         1.8        1.8
   % Ch                                  6.6        9.2        8.5        3.8        2.7        2.4        2.5        1.8        0.5       (0.6)        0.0       (1.3)


        Other Indicators
Industrial Production Index,
U.S, 1997=100                         106.0      106.9      107.7      108.5      109.4      110.2      111.0      111.8      112.5      113.2       114.0      114.7
  % Ch                                  3.7        3.3        3.1        3.0        3.2        3.1        3.1        2.8        2.5        2.6         2.7        2.8


Prime Rate (Percent)                    7.5         7.7        7.7        7.7        7.8        7.8        7.8        7.8        7.8        7.8         7.8        7.8
   % Ch                                29.3        15.7        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0        0.0         0.0        0.0




                                                                                101
TABLE A.2
Sep 2011 - Other Economic Indicators

                                     2018:1      2018:2      2018:3     2018:4      2019:1      2019:2      2019:3     2019:4      2020:1      2020:2      2020:3      2020:4

GDP (Bil of 2005 $) Chain Weight
(in billions of $)                  16,451.2    16,561.9    16,669.7   16,776.5    16,881.0    16,996.6    17,109.0   17,219.1    17,326.4    17,453.5    17,559.6    17,661.5
   % Ch                                  2.4         2.7         2.6        2.6         2.5         2.8         2.7        2.6         2.5         3.0         2.5         2.3


  Price and Wage Indicators
GDP Implicit Price Deflator,
Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100           125.7       126.2       126.7      127.2       127.8       128.4       128.9      129.4       130.0       130.5       131.0       131.5
 % Ch                                   2.0         1.7         1.7        1.6         1.9         1.6         1.6        1.6         1.9         1.6         1.5         1.6


Personal Consumption Deflator,
 Chain Weight U.S., 2005=100          128.5       129.1       129.8      130.3       131.0       131.5       132.1      132.7       133.3       133.9       134.5       135.1
   % Ch                                  2.1         1.9         2.0        1.8         1.9         1.8         1.7        1.7         1.9         1.7         1.7         1.8



CPI, Urban Consumers, 1982-84=10
Portland-Salem, OR-WA                 252.7       254.0       255.6      256.9       258.1       259.5       261.0      262.3       263.6       264.9       266.5       267.8
   % Ch                                 1.7         2.2         2.4        2.0         2.0         2.1         2.4        2.0         2.0         2.1         2.4         2.0
U.S.                                  255.8       257.0       258.3      259.5       260.7       261.9       263.0      264.1       265.4       266.5       267.7       268.9
   % Ch                                  2.1         1.9         2.0        1.9         1.9         1.7         1.7        1.7         1.9         1.7         1.7         1.8

OR Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                          54.5        54.7       55.1       55.6         56.0        56.4        56.8      57.3         57.7        58.1        58.6       59.1
   % Ch                                  3.0         1.9        3.1        3.2          3.3         3.0         3.1       3.1          3.2         2.5         3.3        3.4


U.S. Average Wage
Rate (Thous $)                         60.8        61.2        61.7       62.2         62.7        63.2       63.7       64.2         64.7        65.1       65.6        66.2
   % Ch                                  3.3         3.0         3.1        3.1         3.4         3.1         3.1        3.1         3.4         2.5         3.5         3.3


     Housing Indicators
FHFA Oregon Housing Price Index
Index 1987 Q1=100                     408.0       411.3       418.2      423.5       426.4       430.2       436.4      441.4       446.2       450.6       457.0       462.0
  % Ch                                  2.1         3.3         6.9        5.1         2.8         3.6         5.9        4.6         4.4         4.0         5.8         4.5



FHFA National Housing Price Index
(1980Q1=100)                          404.4       407.7       415.2      420.8       423.6       427.5       434.0      439.2       444.2       448.6       455.4       460.7
   % Ch                                  2.0         3.3         7.5        5.5         2.7         3.7         6.3        4.8         4.6         4.1         6.2         4.7

Housing Starts
Oregon (Thous)                          25.0        25.0        25.4      25.2         24.9        25.0        25.3      25.2         25.1        25.0        25.2       25.0
  % Ch                                  (9.8)        0.9         6.6      (3.2)        (4.3)        1.3         4.6      (2.0)        (1.0)       (2.0)        2.7       (3.3)
U.S. (M illions)                         1.8         1.8         1.8        1.8         1.8         1.8         1.8        1.8         1.8         1.8         1.8         1.8
   % Ch                                 (1.8)       (1.4)        0.2       (0.3)       (0.5)       (0.2)        0.7        0.2        (0.8)       (1.5)       (0.6)       (1.4)


        Other Indicators
Industrial Production Index,
U.S, 1997=100                         115.5       116.3       117.1      117.9       118.7       119.5       120.4      121.2       122.0       122.9       123.7       124.5
   % Ch                                  2.8         2.7         2.7        2.8         2.8         2.8         2.9        2.8         2.8         2.8         2.6         2.6

Prime Rate (Percent)                     7.8         7.8         7.8        7.8         7.8         7.8         7.8        7.7         7.7         7.7         7.7         7.7
   % Ch                                  0.0         0.0         0.0        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0       (0.0)        0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0




                                                                                   102
APPENDIX B:              REVENUE FORECAST DETAIL

  Table B.1a General Fund Revenue Statement Final 2009-11 1............................................ 104

  Table B.1b General Fund Revenue Statement – 2011 Close of Session 1 ........................... 105
   
  Table B.1c General Fund Revenue Statement - 2011-13 – Sept 2011 Forecast 1 ................ 106
   
  Table B.2 General Fund Revenue Forecast by Fiscal Year 1 ............................................... 107

  Table B.3 Summary of Tax Model Adjustments 1 ............................................................... 108

  Table B.4 Oregon Personal Income Tax Revenue Forecast 1 .............................................. 109

  Table B.5 Oregon Corporate Income Tax Revenue Forecast 1 ............................................ 111

  Table B.6 Cigarette and Tobacco Tax Distribution 1 ........................................................... 113

  Table B.7 Revenue Distribution to Local Governments 1 .................................................... 114

  Table B.8 Track Record for the June 2010 Forecast 1 ......................................................... 115

  Table B.9 Summary of Lottery Resources 1......................................................................... 116

  Table B.10 Budgetary Reserve Summary and Outlook 1 ..................................................... 117




                                                        103
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          1
      Table B.1a
      General Fund Revenue Statement -- 2009-11

                                                                                                      Forecasts Dated: 5/12/2011                                        Forecasts Dated: 9/1/2011                                 Difference
                                                                      Estimate at                                                     Total                                                              Total                09/1/2011 Less          09/1/2011 Less
                                                                       COS 2009             2009-10              2010-11             2009-11                 2009-10              2010-11               2009-11                  5/12/2011                 COS

      Taxes
       Personal Income Taxes (Before Kicker )                        11,545,697,000       4,943,210,000        5,487,766,000      10,430,976,000           4,943,210,000         5,524,015,000       10,467,225,000                  36,249,000        (1,078,472,000)
         Implicit Kicker Offset                                                   0                                                            0                                                                  0                           0                     0
       Corporate Income Taxes (Before Kicker)                           831,615,000         353,589,000          488,470,000         842,059,000             359,008,000           468,606,000          827,614,000                 (14,445,000)           (4,001,000)
       Insurance Taxes                                                   99,611,000          40,327,000           44,678,000          85,005,000              51,001,000            39,495,000           90,496,000                   5,491,000            (9,115,000)
       Estate Taxes                                                     195,407,000          98,034,000           76,893,000         174,927,000              92,615,000            76,249,000          168,864,000                  (6,063,000)          (26,543,000)
       Cigarette Taxes                                                   67,333,000          37,517,000           38,816,000          76,333,000              37,517,000            39,320,000           76,837,000                     504,000             9,504,000
       Other Tobacco Products Taxes                                      35,335,000          19,956,000           27,849,000          47,805,000              19,956,000            27,372,000           47,328,000                    (477,000)           11,993,000
       Other Taxes                                                        1,050,000           1,588,000              782,000           2,370,000               1,588,000               908,000            2,496,000                     126,000             1,446,000

      Fines and Fees
        State Court Fees                                                 56,644,000           26,550,000          26,176,000           52,726,000              24,360,000           26,104,000            50,464,000                 (2,262,000)            (6,180,000)
        Secretary of State Fees                                          25,056,000           15,284,000          27,471,000           42,755,000              15,284,000           26,666,000            41,950,000                   (805,000)            16,894,000
        Criminal Fines & Assessments                                     62,925,000           30,758,000          31,266,000           62,024,000              30,758,000           28,702,000            59,460,000                 (2,564,000)            (3,465,000)
        Securities Fees                                                  14,996,000            9,073,000          10,265,000           19,338,000               9,073,000           10,190,000            19,263,000                    (75,000)             4,267,000

      Central Service Charges                                              8,760,000           4,087,000            4,087,000           8,174,000               4,087,000            4,087,000             8,174,000                           0              (586,000)

      Liquor Apportionment                                              213,092,000           97,322,000         104,138,000         201,460,000             104,378,000            93,905,000          198,283,000                  (3,177,000)           (14,809,000)

      Interest Earnings                                                  50,521,300            2,946,000            3,571,000           6,517,000               2,946,000            1,981,000             4,927,000                 (1,590,000)           (45,594,300)




104
                                    1
      Miscellaneous Revenues                                            108,750,000            5,517,000            6,500,000          12,017,000               5,517,000            5,415,000           10,932,000                  (1,085,000)           (97,818,000)

      One-time Transfers                                                258,894,848         315,917,000                      0       315,917,000             315,917,000           131,466,000          447,383,000                131,466,000            188,488,152
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Table B.1a General Fund Revenue Statement Final 2009-11




      Gross General Fund Revenues                                    13,575,687,148       6,001,675,000        6,378,728,000      12,380,403,000           6,017,215,000         6,504,481,000       12,521,696,000                141,293,000         (1,053,991,148)

      Net General Fund Revenues                                      13,575,687,148       6,001,675,000        6,378,728,000      12,380,403,000           6,017,215,000         6,504,481,000       12,521,696,000                141,293,000         (1,053,991,148)

      Plus Beginning Balance                                                        0                                                            0                                                                  0                          0                     0

      Less Anticipated Administrative Actions*                          (43,700,000)                                                   (8,200,000)                                                        (8,200,000)                          0            35,500,000

      Plus Legislatively Adopted Actions**                                          0                                                122,985,849                                                                    0             (122,985,849)                      0

      Available Resources                                            13,531,987,148                                               12,495,188,849                                                     12,513,496,000                  18,307,151        (1,018,491,148)

      Legislatively Adopted Budget                                   13,298,144,069                                               13,465,497,041                                                     13,432,874,608                 (32,622,433)          134,730,539

      Plus Administrative Actions                                                                                                    (954,613,145)                                                     (954,613,145)                           0         (954,613,145)

      Projected Expenditures                                         13,298,144,069                                               12,510,883,896                                                     12,478,261,463                 (32,622,433)         (819,882,606)

      Estimated Ending Balance                                          233,843,079                                                   (15,695,047)                                                        35,234,537                 50,929,584          (198,608,542)




      1. Close of Session forecast included $62 million related to indirect impacts from the Federal Stimulus legislation signed 2/18/09. These dollars have been allocated to the appropriate line items (e.g., personal income taxes) for the current and future
      forecasts.         Notes: Corporate income tax figure includes Corporate Multistate taxes.
               Other taxes include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Severance Tax, Western Oregon Severance Tax and Amusement Device Tax.
               Cigarette and Other Tobacco T axes are gross tax receipts. Distributions, net of administrative costs, are reported in the Table B.6.
               Detailed entries may not add to totals due to rounding.
               * Administrative Actions equal ex penses associated with cashflow management, exclusive of internal borrowing.
      Table B.1b
      General Fund Revenue Statement -- 2011 -13 Close of Session

                                                            Forecasts Dated: 5/12/2011                               Forecasts Dated: COS                     Difference
                                                                                          Total                                                Total          COS Less
                                                  2011-12           2012-13              2011-13          2011-12          2012-13            2011-13         5/12/2011

      Taxes
        Personal Income Taxes (Before Kicker)    5,918,883,000    6,283,195,000     12,202,078,000       5,924,553,000    6,269,000,000     12,193,553,000       (8,525,000)
          Implicit Kicker Offset                                                                 0                                                       0                0
        Corporate Income Taxes (Before Kicker)    421,250,000       442,073,000        863,323,000        439,665,000      454,578,000         894,243,000       30,920,000
        Insurance Taxes                            48,784,000        51,474,000        100,258,000         48,784,000       51,474,000         100,258,000                0
        Estate Taxes                               95,612,000        94,672,000        190,284,000         95,612,000       94,672,000         190,284,000                0
        Cigarette Taxes                            37,611,000        36,633,000         74,244,000         37,611,000       36,633,000          74,244,000                0
        Other Tobacco Products Taxes               28,745,000        29,841,000         58,586,000         28,745,000       29,841,000          58,586,000                0
        Other Taxes                                   670,000           657,000          1,327,000            670,000          657,000           1,327,000                0

      Fines and Fees
        State Court Fees                           27,117,000        27,989,000           55,106,000       43,420,000       44,817,000         88,237,000        33,131,000
        Secretary of State Fees                    23,023,000        24,016,000           47,039,000       23,023,000       24,016,000         47,039,000                 0
        Criminal Fines & Assessments               31,632,000        26,766,000           58,398,000       43,657,000       36,941,000         80,598,000        22,200,000
        Securities Fees                             9,378,000         9,692,000           19,070,000        9,378,000        9,692,000         19,070,000                 0

      Central Service Charges                       5,576,000         5,576,000           11,152,000        5,576,000        5,576,000         11,152,000                  0




105
      Liquor Apportionment                         91,820,000        95,568,000          187,388,000       91,820,000       95,568,000        187,388,000                  0

      Interest Earnings                             6,700,000        10,653,000           17,353,000        4,460,000        5,453,000           9,913,000       (7,440,000)
                                    1
      Miscellaneous Revenues                        7,800,000         8,000,000           15,800,000        7,800,000        8,000,000         15,800,000                  0

      One-time Transfers                                     0                0                     0       2,200,000       58,100,000         60,300,000        60,300,000

      Gross General Fund Revenues                6,754,601,000    7,146,805,000     13,901,406,000       6,806,974,000   7,225,018,000      14,031,992,000      130,586,000

      Net General Fund Revenues                  6,754,601,000    7,146,805,000     13,901,406,000       6,806,974,000   7,225,018,000      14,031,992,000      130,586,000

      Plus Beginning Balance                                                                        0                                                    0                 0
                                                                                                                                                                               Table B.1b General Fund Revenue Statement - 2011 Close of Session 1




      Less Anticipated Administrative Actions*                                            (23,135,600)                                         (23,135,600)                0

      Plus Legislatively Adopted Actions**                                                          0                                                                      0

      Available Resources                                                           13,878,270,400                                          14,008,856,400      130,586,000

      Legislatively Adopted Budget                                                                                                          13,562,594,263       NA

      Plus Administrative Actions

      Projected Expenditures                                                                                                                13,562,594,263       NA

      Estimated Ending Balance                                                             NA                                                 446,262,137        NA
      Table B.1c
      General Fund Revenue Statement -- 2011-13

                                                                                                      Forecasts Dated: 5/12/2011                                        Forecasts Dated: 9/1/2011                                 Difference
                                                                      Estimate at                                                     Total                                                              Total                09/1/2011 Less          09/1/2011 Less
                                                                       COS 2011             2011-12              2012-13             2011-13                 2011-12              2012-13               2011-13                  5/12/2011                 COS

      Taxes
       Personal Income Taxes (Before Kicker)                         12,193,553,000       5,918,883,000        6,283,195,000      12,202,078,000           5,839,415,000         6,195,690,000       12,035,105,000               (166,973,000)          (158,448,000)
         Implicit Kicker Offset                                                   0                                                            0                                                                  0                          0                      0
       Corporate Income Taxes (Before Kicker)                           894,243,000         421,250,000          442,073,000         863,323,000             429,669,000           445,848,000          875,517,000                 12,194,000            (18,726,000)
       Insurance Taxes                                                  100,258,000          48,784,000           51,474,000         100,258,000              48,553,000            50,873,000           99,426,000                   (832,000)              (832,000)
        Estate Taxes                                                    190,284,000          95,612,000           94,672,000         190,284,000              95,612,000            94,672,000          190,284,000                          0                      0
        Cigarette Taxes                                                  74,244,000          37,611,000           36,633,000          74,244,000              37,498,000            36,496,000           73,994,000                   (250,000)              (250,000)
        Other Tobacco Products Taxes                                     58,586,000          28,745,000           29,841,000          58,586,000              28,504,000            29,757,000           58,261,000                   (325,000)              (325,000)
        Other Taxes                                                       1,327,000             670,000              657,000           1,327,000                 666,000               656,000            1,322,000                     (5,000)                (5,000)

      Fines and Fees
        State Court Fees                                                 88,237,000           27,117,000          27,989,000           55,106,000              43,420,000           44,817,000           88,237,000                  33,131,000                      0
        Secretary of State Fees                                          47,039,000           23,023,000          24,016,000           47,039,000              22,617,000           23,610,000           46,227,000                    (812,000)              (812,000)
        Criminal Fines & Assessments                                     80,598,000           31,632,000          26,766,000           58,398,000              38,709,000           32,754,000           71,463,000                  13,065,000             (9,135,000)
        Securities Fees                                                  19,070,000            9,378,000           9,692,000           19,070,000               9,192,000            9,822,000           19,014,000                     (56,000)               (56,000)

      Central Service Charges                                            11,152,000            5,576,000            5,576,000          11,152,000               5,576,000            5,576,000            11,152,000                           0                     0

      Liquor Apportionment                                              187,388,000           91,820,000          95,568,000         187,388,000               91,820,000           95,568,000          187,388,000                            0                     0

      Interest Earnings                                                    9,913,000           6,700,000          10,653,000           17,353,000               2,460,000            3,453,000             5,913,000                (11,440,000)            (4,000,000)




106
      Miscellaneous Revenues1                                            15,800,000            7,800,000            8,000,000          15,800,000               7,800,000            8,000,000            15,800,000                           0                     0

      One-time Transfers                                                 60,300,000                     0                    0                   0              2,200,000           58,100,000            60,300,000                 60,300,000                      0

      Gross General Fund Revenues                                    14,031,992,000       6,754,601,000        7,146,805,000      13,901,406,000           6,703,711,000         7,135,692,000       13,839,403,000                 (62,003,000)         (192,589,000)

      Net General Fund Revenues                                      14,031,992,000       6,754,601,000        7,146,805,000      13,901,406,000           6,703,711,000         7,135,692,000       13,839,403,000                 (62,003,000)         (192,589,000)

      Plus Beginning Balance                                                        0                                                            0                                                                  0                          0                     0

      Less Anticipated Administrative Actions*                          (23,135,600)                                                  (23,135,600)                                                       (23,135,600)                          0                     0

      Plus Legislatively Adopted Actions**                                                                                                       0                                                                  0                          0                     0

      Available Resources                                            14,008,856,400                                               13,878,270,400                                                     13,816,267,400                 (62,003,000)         (192,589,000)

      Legislatively Adopted Budget                                   13,562,594,263                                               13,562,594,263                                                     13,562,594,263                            0                     0
                                                                                                                                               0                                                                  0
      Plus Administrative Actions                                                                                                                                                                                                              0                     0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Table B.1c General Fund Revenue Statement - 2011-13 September 2011 Forecast 2




      Projected Expenditures                                         13,562,594,263                                               13,562,594,263                                                     13,562,594,263                            0                     0

      Estimated Ending Balance                                          446,262,137                                                  315,676,137                                                        253,673,137                 (62,003,000)         (192,589,000)


      1. Close of Session forecast included $62 million related to indirect impacts from the Federal Stimulus legislation signed 2/18/09. These dollars have been allocated to the appropriate line items (e.g., personal income taxes) for the current and future
      forecasts.
               Notes: Corporate income tax figure includes Corporate Multistate taxes.
               Other taxes include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Severance Tax, Western Oregon Severance Tax and Amusement Device Tax.
               Cigarette and Other Tobacco Taxes are gross tax receipts. Distributions, net of administrative costs, are reported in the Table B.6. Detailed entries may not add to totals due to rounding.
       * Administrative Actions equal expenses associated with cashflow management, exclusive of internal borrowing.
      ** Includes actions taken during the 2010 Special Legislative Session
                                                                                                TABLE B.2
                                                                                       General Fund Revenue Forecast                                                                                                          September 2011
                                                                                                       ($Millions)

                                            2009-10          2010-11           2011- 12         2012-13           2013-14          2014-15          2015-16           2016-17          2017-18           2018-19          2019-20           2020-21
                                          Fiscal Year      Fiscal Year       Fiscal Ye ar     Fiscal Year       Fiscal Year      Fiscal Ye ar     Fiscal Year       Fiscal Year      Fiscal Ye ar      Fiscal Year      Fiscal Year       Fiscal Ye ar
      Fiscal Years
      Taxes

       Personal Income                           4,943.2          5,524.0           5,839.4          6,195.7          6,653.9           7,227.1          7,648.5           8,044.3          8,450.3           8,903.1          9,352.3           9,895.3
       Corporate Excise & Income                   359.0            468.6             429.7            445.8            549.2             582.6            555.4             557.0            554.1             572.4            591.3             615.5
       Insurance                                    51.0             39.5              48.6             50.9             53.0              55.4             58.0              60.5             62.5              64.3             66.3              68.4
       Estate                                       92.6             76.2              95.6             94.7             99.9             103.3            107.0             110.8            115.3             119.9            124.7             129.7
       Cigarette                                    37.5             39.3              37.5             36.5             35.1              33.6             32.1              30.2             28.8              27.5             26.3              25.1
       Other T obacco Products                      20.0             27.4              28.5             29.8             30.9              32.0             33.3              34.5             35.8              37.2             38.6              40.1
       Other T axes                                  1.6              0.9               0.7              0.7              0.6               0.6              0.6               0.6              0.6               0.6              0.6               0.6

      O ther Revenue s

       Licenses and Fees                            79.5             91.7            113.9             111.0            120.6             117.1            126.3             122.4            125.1             122.0            130.8            127.4
       Charges for Services                          4.1              4.1              5.6               5.6              5.6               5.6              5.6               5.6              5.6               5.6              5.6              5.6
       Liquor Apportionment                        104.4             93.9             91.8              95.6             98.4             101.4            104.4             107.6            110.8             114.1            117.5            121.1
       Interest Earnings                             2.9              2.0              2.5               3.5              4.3               5.6              7.0               8.0             11.8              17.5             24.4             32.7
       Others                                      321.4            136.9             10.0              66.1              8.2               8.4              8.2               8.4              8.4               8.4              8.4              8.4




107
      Total Gene ral Fund                        6,017.2          6,504.5           6,703.7          7,135.7          7,659.8           8,272.6          8,686.4           9,089.9          9,509.1           9,992.7         10,486.7         11,069.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Table B.2 General Fund Revenue Forecast by Fiscal Year




                                           2009-11           Percent          2011- 13          Perce nt         2013-15           Pe rcent         2015-17           Percent          2017-19           Perce nt         2019-21           Pe rcent
      Biennial Totals                     Biennium           Change          Bienni um          Change          Bie nnium          Change          Biennium           Change          Biennium           Change          Bie nnium          Change
      Taxes

       Personal Income                         10,467.2              3.7%         12,035.1            15.0%          13,881.0            15.3%          15,692.8            13.1%          17,353.3            10.6%          19,247.5            10.9%
       Corporate Excise & Income                  827.6             20.9%            875.5             5.8%           1,131.8            29.3%           1,112.3            -1.7%           1,126.6             1.3%           1,206.7             7.1%
       Insurance                                   90.5             -3.0%             99.4             9.9%             108.4             9.0%             118.6             9.4%             126.8             7.0%             134.7             6.2%
       Estate T axes                              168.9            -14.2%            190.3            12.7%             203.2             6.8%             217.8             7.2%             235.1             7.9%             254.3             8.2%
       Cigarette                                   76.8             -5.0%             74.0            -3.7%              68.7            -7.1%              62.3            -9.3%              56.4            -9.6%              51.4            -8.8%
       Other T obacco Products                     47.3             37.2%             58.3            23.1%              62.9             7.9%              67.8             7.9%              73.0             7.7%              78.7             7.7%
       Other T axes                                 2.5             69.0%              1.3           -47.0%               1.3            -4.5%               1.2            -2.0%               1.2            -0.4%               1.2             0.0%

      O ther Revenue s

       Licenses and Fees                           171.1           -0.7%             224.9            31.4%             237.6             5.6%             248.7             4.7%             247.2            -0.6%             258.1             4.4%
       Charges for Services                          8.2           -6.2%              11.2            36.4%              11.2             0.0%              11.2             0.0%              11.2             0.0%              11.2             0.0%
       Liquor Apportionment                        198.3           11.9%             187.4            -5.5%             199.8             6.6%             212.0             6.1%             224.9             6.1%             238.6             6.1%
       Interest Earnings                             4.9          -94.1%               5.9            20.0%              10.0            68.5%              14.9            50.0%              29.3            95.9%              57.1            95.1%
       Others                                      458.3          360.5%              76.1           -83.4%              16.6           -78.2%              16.6             0.0%              16.8             1.2%              16.8             0.0%

      Total Gene ral Fund                      12,521.7              6.8%         13,839.4            10.5%          15,932.4            15.1%          17,776.3            11.6%          19,501.8             9.7%          21,556.4            10.5%

      Note: Detailed entries may not add to totals due to rounding. Other taxes include General Fund portions of the Eastern Oregon Severance T ax, Western Oregon Severance T ax and Amusement Device T ax. Commercial Fish Licenses & Fees and Pari-
Table B.3 Summary of Tax Model Adjustments 1
                                                                  Biennia                       Staff Measure   Revenue Impact
                                              2011-13   2013-15   2015-17   2017-19   2019-21     Summary         Statement
Personal Income Tax Impacts (Millions)
Tax Law Change
  Farmworker Credit - HB 2154                  -$0.01    -$0.01     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2154        HB   2154
  BETC Administration - HB 2523                 $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2523        HB   2523
  529 College Savings - HB 2728                 $0.00    -$0.03    -$0.03    -$0.03    -$0.03     HB   2528        HB   2528
  Diesel Engine Tax Credit - HB 3170            $0.22     $0.12     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3170        HB   3170
  Net Operating Loss - HB 3454                  $0.80     $0.50     $0.40     $0.26     $0.17     HB   3454        HB   3454
  BETC Clarification - HB 3606                  $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3606        HB   3606
  Tax Credits - HB 3672                                                                           HB   3672        HB   3672
      BETC                                      $7.90   $6.40   $3.20   $2.00           $1.80
      Biomass                                  -$3.60 -$7.60 -$8.30 -$4.65              $0.00
      E-commerce Zone                          -$0.01 -$0.02 -$0.02 -$0.01              $0.00
      Film & Video                             -$6.00 -$12.00 -$12.00 -$7.00           -$0.20
      Fish Screening                           -$0.02 -$0.04 -$0.04 -$0.02              $0.00
      Oregon Investment Advantage               $0.00 -$0.10 -$0.05 -$0.02             -$0.01
      Renewables                               -$2.00 -$2.25 -$2.25 -$1.13              $0.00
      Conservation                             -$2.30 -$6.60 -$8.20 -$7.70             -$3.50
      Transportation                           -$1.00 -$1.90 -$1.70 -$0.70             -$0.25
      RETC                                     -$7.60 -$21.20 -$28.40 -$20.50           $0.00
  Federal Reconnect - SB 301 (3/11 base)        $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00           $0.00      SB 301           SB 301
  Community Jobs Initiative - SB 817            $0.00 -$4.60 -$23.30 -$25.50           -$7.60      SB 817           SB 817
Compliance Bills
  Tax Preparers E-file - HB 2071                $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB 2071          HB 2071
  DOR Enforcement - HB 5040                     $5.50     $5.60     $5.60     $5.60     $5.60                      HB 5040

Personal Income Tax Total                      -$8.13 -$43.73 -$75.09 -$59.40          -$4.02

Corporate Income Tax Impacts (Millions)
Tax Law Change
  Farmworker Credit - HB 2154                  -$0.02    -$0.02     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2154        HB   2154
  BETC Administration - HB 2523                 $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   2523        HB   2523
  Housing Lender Tax Credit - HB 2527           $0.00    -$2.80    -$5.20    -$7.70    -$6.10     HB   2527        HB   2527
  Agriculture Cooperative Min Tax - HB 3058    -$1.40    -$1.40    -$1.40    -$1.40    -$1.40     HB   3058        HB   3058
  Diesel Engine Tax Credit - HB 3170            $0.09     $0.08     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3170        HB   3170
  BETC Clarification - HB 3606                  $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB   3606        HB   3606
  Tax Credits - HB 3672                                                                           HB   3672        HB   3672
      BETC                                     $11.90    $10.00   $4.80   $3.10         $2.50
      Biomass                                  -$0.30    -$0.60 -$0.70 -$0.50           $0.00
      Fire Insurance                           -$0.80    -$1.60 -$1.60 -$1.30           $0.00
      E-commerce Zone                          -$0.04    -$0.08 -$0.08 -$0.06           $0.00
      Long-Term Rural EZ                       -$0.10    -$0.20 -$0.20 -$0.10           $0.00
      R&D                                      -$0.80    -$1.70 -$2.10 -$1.70           $0.00
      Film & Video                             -$0.20    -$0.40 -$0.40 -$0.20           $0.00
      Fish Screening                           -$0.01    -$0.01 -$0.01 -$0.01           $0.00
      Oregon Investment Advantage               $0.00    -$0.10 -$0.05 -$0.02           $0.00
      Renewables                               -$0.50    -$0.75 -$0.75 -$0.38           $0.00
      Conservation                             -$3.20    -$9.60 -$12.10 -$10.60        -$3.50
      Transportation                           -$1.30    -$2.90 -$2.60 -$0.90          -$0.20
  Federal Reconnect - SB 301 (3/11 base)        $0.00     $0.00   $0.00   $0.00         $0.00      SB 301           SB 301
  Community Jobs Initiative - SB 817            $0.00    -$0.70 -$5.50 -$6.50          -$2.50      SB 817           SB 817
Compliance Bills
  Tax Preparers E-file - HB 2071                $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     HB 2071          HB 2071
  DOR Enforcement - HB 5040                     $9.20     $9.40     $9.40     $9.40     $9.40                      HB 5040
  Other Transfers - SB 939                     $18.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00     $0.00      SB 939          SB 939

Corporate Income Tax Total                     $30.52    -$3.38 -$18.49 -$18.86        -$1.80

Other Tax/Revenue Impacts (Millions)
  Other Transfers - SB 939                     $58.10   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00             SB 939           SB 939
  Inheritance Tax - HB 2541                     $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00             HB 2541          HB 2541
  Court Fees - HB 2710                         $33.13 $40.43 $42.83 $45.40 $47.50                 HB 2710          HB 2710
  Criminal Fine Account - HB 2712              $22.20 $20.71 $22.05 $23.50 $25.50                 HB 2712          HB 2712
  OUS Interest Earnings - SB 242               -$7.44 -$22.00 -$32.00 -$34.00 -$34.00             SB 242           SB 242
  OLCC Transfers - SB 5522                      $2.20   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00   $0.00                              SB 5522

Other Tax Total                               $108.19    $39.14    $32.88    $34.90    $39.00



                                                           108
Table B.4 Oregon Personal Income Tax Revenue Forecast 1

TABLE B.4                                          OREGON PERSONAL INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS
                                                                    Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted                                               September 2011
                                   2005:3            2005:4            2006:1           2006:2            FY 2006       2006:3       2006:4       2007:1       2007:2      FY 2007
WITHHOLDING                         1,064,107         1,087,942        1,177,488         1,075,476         4,405,013    1,118,878    1,172,656    1,182,336    1,088,108    4,561,977
 %CHYA                                   8.4%              6.4%            10.5%              6.0%              7.8%         5.1%         7.8%         0.4%         1.2%         3.6%
EST. PAYMENTS                         194,848           186,648          224,403           270,754          876,653       231,720      177,026      267,345      363,055    1,039,146
 %CHYA                                  22.4%             36.4%            11.4%              0.3%            14.2%         18.9%        -5.2%        19.1%        34.1%        18.5%
FINAL PAYMENTS                         51,797            68,000           88,998           787,622          996,416        55,408       89,432      100,476      779,577    1,024,893
 %CHYA                                  16.8%             27.6%            13.8%             49.4%            41.7%          7.0%        31.5%        12.9%        -1.0%         2.9%
REFUNDS                                62,638            94,755          345,524           358,699          861,617        89,254      126,707      444,768      369,456    1,030,186
 %CHYA                                  -9.4%             17.8%             0.7%             -1.4%             0.6%         42.5%        33.7%        28.7%         3.0%        19.6%
OTHER                                (149,733)                -                 -          176,911           27,178      (176,911)            -            -     177,781          870
TOTAL                               1,098,381         1,247,835        1,145,365         1,952,063         5,443,644    1,139,841    1,312,406    1,105,388    2,039,066    5,596,701
 %CHYA                                  10.9%             10.2%            14.3%             22.2%             15.3%         3.8%         5.2%        -3.5%         4.5%         2.8%
                                   2007:3            2007:4            2008:1           2008:2            FY 2008       2008:3       2008:4       2009:1       2009:2      FY 2009
WITHHOLDING                         1,115,359         1,200,822        1,196,532         1,111,034         4,623,747    1,162,107    1,182,763    1,128,994    1,089,305    4,563,169
 %CHYA                                  -0.3%              2.4%             1.2%              2.1%              1.4%         4.2%        -1.5%        -5.6%        -2.0%        -1.3%
EST. PAYMENTS                         250,749           217,163          281,441           399,475         1,148,828      264,440     174,826       217,305      263,135     919,707
 %CHYA                                   8.2%             22.7%             5.3%             10.0%             10.6%         5.5%      -19.5%        -22.8%       -34.1%      -19.9%
FINAL PAYMENTS                         57,503           129,817          104,841           971,325         1,263,486       70,306       99,430      104,105      529,995     803,836
 %CHYA                                   3.8%             45.2%             4.3%             24.6%             23.3%        22.3%       -23.4%        -0.7%       -45.4%      -36.4%
REFUNDS                                71,372           155,912          389,876           365,908          983,068        92,063      180,329      447,706      404,229    1,124,327
 %CHYA                                 -20.0%             23.0%           -12.3%             -1.0%            -4.6%         29.0%        15.7%        14.8%        10.5%        14.4%
OTHER                                (177,781)       (1,084,201)                -          182,322        (1,079,660)    (182,322)            -            -     138,521     (43,801)
TOTAL                               1,174,457           307,689        1,192,938         2,298,247         4,973,332    1,222,469    1,276,690    1,002,698    1,616,726    5,118,583
 %CHYA                                   3.0%            -76.6%             7.9%             12.7%            -11.1%         4.1%       314.9%       -15.9%       -29.7%         2.9%
                                   2009:3            2009:4            2010:1           2010:2            FY 2010       2010:3       2010:4       2011:1       2011:2      FY 2011
WITHHOLDING                         1,092,795         1,151,673        1,157,857         1,116,552         4,518,878    1,146,189    1,196,214    1,262,781    1,218,439    4,823,622
 %CHYA                                  -6.0%             -2.6%             2.6%              2.5%             -1.0%         4.9%         3.9%         9.1%         9.1%         6.7%
EST. PAYMENTS                         176,110           161,759          186,894           265,703          790,467       179,692     148,589       207,036      284,662     819,978
 %CHYA                                 -33.4%             -7.5%           -14.0%              1.0%           -14.1%          2.0%       -8.1%         10.8%         7.1%        3.7%
FINAL PAYMENTS                         63,363            77,013          105,745           515,262          761,383        62,259       81,728      114,877      607,592     866,456
 %CHYA                                  -9.9%            -22.5%             1.6%             -2.8%            -5.3%         -1.7%         6.1%         8.6%        17.9%       13.8%
REFUNDS                                96,477           188,704          459,550           380,459         1,125,190       92,291      151,515      432,478      340,652    1,016,937
 %CHYA                                   4.8%              4.6%             2.6%             -5.9%              0.1%        -4.3%       -19.7%        -5.9%       -10.5%        -9.6%
OTHER                                (138,521)                -                 -          136,193            (2,328)    (136,193)            -            -     165,933      29,740
TOTAL                               1,097,271         1,201,740          990,947         1,653,251         4,943,210    1,159,655    1,275,015    1,152,216    1,935,973    5,522,860
 %CHYA                                 -10.2%             -5.9%            -1.2%              2.3%             -3.4%         5.7%         6.1%        16.3%        17.1%        11.7%


                                   2011:3            2011:4            2012:1           2012:2            FY 2012       2012:3       2012:4       2013:1       2013:2      FY 2013
WITHHOLDING                         1,217,496        1,273,011         1,311,886         1,253,784         5,056,178    1,257,006    1,314,286    1,382,646    1,326,246    5,280,183
 %CHYA                                   6.2%             6.4%              3.9%              2.9%              4.8%         3.2%         3.2%         5.4%         5.8%         4.4%
EST. PAYMENTS                         223,556          160,225           262,794           318,377          964,953       276,255     188,908       317,701      318,557    1,101,421
 %CHYA                                  24.4%             7.8%             26.9%             11.8%            17.7%         23.6%       17.9%         20.9%         0.1%        14.1%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                         65,703            87,454          118,253           674,751          946,161        56,303       78,750       82,332      727,476     944,861
 %CHYA                                   5.5%              7.0%             2.9%             11.1%             9.2%        -14.3%       -10.0%       -30.4%         7.8%       -0.1%
REFUNDS                                84,308           112,536          473,861           461,524         1,132,229      111,643      121,085      413,935      494,703    1,141,366
 %CHYA                                  -8.6%            -25.7%             9.6%             35.5%             11.3%        32.4%         7.6%       -12.6%         7.2%         0.8%
OTHER                                (165,933)                -                 -          170,285            4,352      (170,285)            -            -     180,875      10,590
TOTAL                               1,256,514         1,408,154        1,219,073         1,955,673         5,839,415    1,307,636    1,460,859    1,368,745    2,058,451    6,195,690
 %CHYA                                   8.4%             10.4%             5.8%              1.0%              5.7%         4.1%         3.7%        12.3%         5.3%         6.1%
Note: "Other" includes kicker and federal pension refunds, as well as July withholding accrued to June.
Tax law impacts are reflected in the collections numbers to produce more meaningful projections.




                                                                                                     109
TABLE B.4                                          OREGON PERSONAL INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS
                                                                    Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted                                                                 September 2011
                                   2013:3            2013:4            2014:1           2014:2            FY 2014           2014:3           2014:4            2015:1            2015:2           FY 2015
WITHHOLDING                         1,329,588         1,390,199        1,464,372         1,404,945         5,589,104        1,408,481         1,472,690         1,556,089        1,493,748         5,931,009
 %CHYA                                   5.8%              5.8%             5.9%              5.9%              5.9%             5.9%              5.9%              6.3%             6.3%              6.1%
EST. PAYMENTS                         294,938           201,684          339,622           348,019         1,184,263          322,216           220,337           371,161          382,567         1,296,282
 %CHYA                                   6.8%              6.8%             6.9%              9.2%              7.5%             9.2%              9.2%              9.3%             9.9%              9.5%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                         59,259            82,812            88,925          790,102         1,021,098            64,050           89,769           103,115          962,798         1,219,732
 %CHYA                                   5.2%              5.2%              8.0%             8.6%              8.1%              8.1%             8.4%             16.0%            21.9%             19.5%
REFUNDS                               106,956           116,015          422,395           505,843         1,151,209          109,438           118,986           456,278          546,906         1,231,608
 %CHYA                                  -4.2%             -4.2%             2.0%              2.3%              0.9%             2.3%              2.6%              8.0%             8.1%              7.0%
OTHER                                (180,875)                -                 -          191,513            10,638         (191,513)                -                 -          203,179            11,666
TOTAL                               1,395,953         1,558,680        1,470,524         2,228,736         6,653,893        1,493,796         1,663,811         1,574,087        2,495,387         7,227,081
 %CHYA                                   6.8%              6.7%             7.4%              8.3%              7.4%             7.0%              6.7%              7.0%            12.0%              8.6%
                                   2015:3            2015:4            2016:1           2016:2            FY 2016           2016:3           2016:4            2017:1            2017:2           FY 2017
WITHHOLDING                          1,497,497        1,565,768         1,639,625         1,571,465        6,274,354         1,575,442         1,647,255        1,712,250         1,638,934        6,573,880
 %CHYA                                   6.3%             6.3%              5.4%              5.2%              5.8%             5.2%              5.2%             4.4%              4.3%              4.8%
EST. PAYMENTS                          354,203          242,211           407,127           404,493        1,408,033           374,502           256,092          430,068           420,529        1,481,192
 %CHYA                                   9.9%             9.9%              9.7%              5.7%              8.6%             5.7%              5.7%             5.6%              4.0%              5.2%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                          75,070           106,133          112,775         1,019,758        1,313,735            81,377           114,229          120,407         1,067,823        1,383,836
 %CHYA                                  17.2%             18.2%             9.4%              5.9%              7.7%             8.4%              7.6%             6.8%              4.7%              5.3%
REFUNDS                                117,795          127,787           505,190           606,776        1,357,548           129,792           140,822          515,706           617,967        1,404,286
 %CHYA                                   7.6%             7.4%             10.7%             10.9%             10.2%            10.2%             10.2%             2.1%              1.8%              3.4%
OTHER                                 -203,179                    0                 0       213,069             9,891         -213,069                    0                 0       222,741             9,672
TOTAL                               1,605,795         1,786,324        1,654,337         2,602,009         7,648,464        1,688,460         1,876,754         1,747,019        2,732,060         8,044,293
 %CHYA                                   7.5%              7.4%             5.1%              4.3%              5.8%             5.1%              5.1%              5.6%             5.0%              5.2%

                                   2017:3            2017:4            2018:1           2018:2            FY 2018           2018:3           2018:4            2019:1            2019:2           FY 2019
WITHHOLDING                         1,643,111         1,717,997        1,804,171         1,730,040         6,895,319        1,734,407         1,813,469         1,911,480        1,834,120         7,293,476
 %CHYA                                   4.3%              4.3%             5.4%              5.6%              4.9%             5.6%              5.6%              5.9%             6.0%              5.8%
EST. PAYMENTS                         389,350           266,245          447,270           439,954         1,542,819          407,335           278,543           468,097          463,326         1,617,301
 %CHYA                                   4.0%              4.0%             4.0%              4.6%              4.2%             4.6%              4.6%              4.7%             5.3%              4.8%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                         86,733           121,219          126,581         1,104,722         1,439,255            90,915          126,691           132,078        1,155,452         1,505,137
 %CHYA                                   6.6%              6.1%             5.1%              3.5%              4.0%              4.8%             4.5%              4.3%             4.6%              4.6%
REFUNDS                               132,939           144,322          528,710           633,253         1,439,225          136,694           148,480           564,301          676,490         1,525,964
 %CHYA                                   2.4%              2.5%             2.5%              2.5%              2.5%             2.8%              2.9%              6.7%             6.8%              6.0%
OTHER                                (222,741)                -                 -          234,832            12,090         (234,832)                -                 -          247,966            13,134
TOTAL                               1,763,513         1,961,138        1,849,312         2,876,295         8,450,258        1,861,131         2,070,224         1,947,355        3,024,375         8,903,084
 %CHYA                                   4.4%              4.5%             5.9%              5.3%              5.0%             5.5%              5.6%              5.3%             5.1%              5.4%
                                   2019:3            2019:4            2020:1           2020:2            FY 2020           2020:3           2020:4            2021:1            2021:2           FY 2021
WITHHOLDING                          1,838,734        1,922,558         2,012,065         1,928,224        7,701,580         1,933,107         2,021,221        2,118,435         2,030,688        8,103,451
 %CHYA                                   6.0%             6.0%              5.3%              5.1%              5.6%             5.1%              5.1%             5.3%              5.3%              5.2%
EST. PAYMENTS                          428,974          293,341           492,657           482,348        1,697,320           446,585           305,384          513,454           512,563        1,777,987
 %CHYA                                   5.3%             5.3%              5.2%              4.1%              4.9%             4.1%              4.1%             4.2%              6.3%              4.8%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                          94,953           132,318          134,284         1,154,472        1,516,027            96,148           133,595          140,207         1,227,009        1,596,959
 %CHYA                                   4.4%              4.4%             1.7%              -0.1%             0.7%             1.3%              1.0%             4.4%              6.3%              5.3%
REFUNDS                                145,639          158,074           578,987           693,434        1,576,135           149,523           162,298          584,915           700,065        1,596,801
 %CHYA                                   6.5%             6.5%              2.6%              2.5%              3.3%             2.7%              2.7%             1.0%              1.0%              1.3%
OTHER                                 -247,966                    0                 0       261,427            13,462         -261,427                    0                 0       275,125            13,698
TOTAL                               1,969,055         2,190,143        2,060,019         3,133,036         9,352,254        2,064,889         2,297,902         2,187,181        3,345,321         9,895,293
 %CHYA                                   5.8%              5.8%             5.8%              3.6%              5.0%             4.9%              4.9%              6.2%             6.8%              5.8%
Note: "Other" includes kicker and federal pension refunds, as well as July withholding accrued to June.
1
 Includes reductions related to credits realized under the Business Energy Tax Credit Program, adjustments for connecting with federal tax law, and increases related to the sunset of tax credits associated
with HB2607.




                                                                                                      110
Table B.5 Oregon Corporate Income Tax Revenue Forecast 1
TABLE B.5                         OREGON CORPORATE INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS
                                                  Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted                       September 2011
                                                                           FY                                                     FY
                         2005:3      2005:4     2006:1     2006:2         2006       2006:3     2006:4     2007:1     2007:2     2007

ADVANCE PAYMENTS          119,391     183,280     59,091    163,812        525,573    129,737    236,441     59,754    162,465    588,396
 %CHYA                      29.6%       27.8%      46.0%      12.1%          24.5%       8.7%      29.0%       1.1%      -0.8%      12.0%
FINAL PAYMENTS             14,985      17,619     24,327     39,526         96,457     19,718     17,154     25,440     65,628    127,941
 %CHYA                      -9.6%        7.0%      20.9%     -14.0%          -2.7%      31.6%      -2.6%       4.6%      66.0%      32.6%

REFUNDS                    16,350     108,723     19,140     39,592        183,805     22,481    199,419     38,715     49,865    310,480
 %CHYA                     -12.2%      -16.6%      25.9%      17.4%          -7.1%      37.5%      83.4%     102.3%      25.9%      68.9%
TOTAL                     118,026      92,177     64,278    163,745        438,225    126,975     54,176     46,478    178,228    405,857
 %CHYA                      31.1%      212.4%      41.6%       3.4%          35.6%       7.6%     -41.2%     -27.7%       8.8%      -7.4%

                                                                           FY                                                     FY
                         2007:3      2007:4     2008:1     2008:2         2008       2008:3     2008:4     2009:1     2009:2     2009
ADVANCE PAYMENTS          133,408     205,375     64,256    155,284        558,323    100,589    145,285     63,802     97,368    407,044
 %CHYA                       2.8%      -13.1%       7.5%      -4.4%          -5.1%     -24.6%     -29.3%      -0.7%     -37.3%     -27.1%
FINAL PAYMENTS             23,631      45,064     35,076     52,143        155,912     23,501     26,721     22,314     21,822     94,357
 %CHYA                      19.8%      162.7%      37.9%     -20.5%          21.9%      -0.6%     -40.7%     -36.4%     -58.1%     -39.5%
REFUNDS                    39,623     158,106     36,380     39,394        273,503     28,134    124,826     67,471     37,218    257,649
 %CHYA                      76.3%      -20.7%      -6.0%     -21.0%         -11.9%     -29.0%     -21.0%      85.5%      -5.5%      -5.8%
TOTAL                     117,416      92,333     62,951    168,032        440,732     95,956     47,181     18,645     81,971    243,753
 %CHYA                      -7.5%       70.4%      35.4%      -5.7%           8.6%     -18.3%     -48.9%     -70.4%     -51.2%     -44.7%

                                                                           FY                                                     FY
                         2009:3      2009:4     2010:1     2010:2         2010       2010:3     2010:4     2011:1     2011:2     2011
ADVANCE PAYMENTS           79,579     163,877     66,451    147,313        457,220    115,286    175,561     76,405    165,354    532,606
 %CHYA                     -20.9%       12.8%       4.2%      51.3%          12.3%      44.9%       7.1%      15.0%      12.2%      16.5%
FINAL PAYMENTS             20,404      24,009     38,412     45,714        128,539     21,781     21,206     35,770     40,805    119,562
 %CHYA                     -13.2%      -10.2%      72.1%     109.5%          36.2%       6.8%     -11.7%      -6.9%     -10.7%      -7.0%
REFUNDS                    29,072     137,244     40,080     25,774        232,170     23,130     89,877     39,065     31,489    183,561
 %CHYA                       3.3%        9.9%     -40.6%     -30.7%          -9.9%     -20.4%     -34.5%      -2.5%      22.2%     -20.9%
TOTAL                      70,910      50,642     64,784    167,254        353,589    113,936    106,890     73,111    174,670    468,607
 %CHYA                     -26.1%        7.3%     247.5%     104.0%          45.1%      60.7%     111.1%      12.9%       4.4%      32.5%
                                                                           FY                                                     FY
                         2011:3      2011:4     2012:1     2012:2         2012       2012:3     2012:4     2013:1     2013:2     2013
                     1
ADVANCE PAYMENTS          126,485     191,555     71,966    170,222        560,228    123,734    196,704     82,322    184,175    586,934
 %CHYA                       9.7%        9.1%      -5.8%       2.9%           5.2%      -2.2%       2.7%      14.4%       8.2%       4.8%
                 1
FINAL PAYMENTS             31,394      28,254     38,160     39,744        137,552     24,326     21,533     33,795     37,989    117,644
 %CHYA                      44.1%       33.2%       6.7%      -2.6%          15.0%     -22.5%     -23.8%     -11.4%      -4.4%     -14.5%
REFUNDS                    40,915     121,718     61,145     44,333        268,110     45,994    119,024     54,803     38,908    258,729
 %CHYA                      76.9%       35.4%      56.5%      40.8%          46.1%      12.4%      -2.2%     -10.4%     -12.2%      -3.5%
     1
TOTAL                     116,963      98,092     48,981    165,633        429,669    102,066     99,212     61,314    183,256    445,848
 %CHYA                       2.7%       -8.2%     -33.0%      -5.2%          -8.3%     -12.7%       1.1%      25.2%      10.6%       3.8%




                                                                    111
TABLE B.5                                      OREGON CORPORATE INCOME TAX REVENUE FORECAST - QUARTERLY COLLECTIONS
                                                               Thousands of Dollars - Not Seasonally Adjusted                                                              September 2011
                                                                                                         FY                                                                                 FY
                                     2013:3           2013:4          2014:1          2014:2            2014             2014:3          2014:4          2015:1           2015:2           2015
                           1
ADVANCE PAYMENTS                       139,736         218,854           91,985         199,577           650,152         146,716         227,495           93,788         203,484          671,483
 %CHYA                                   12.9%           11.3%            11.7%            8.4%             10.8%            5.0%            3.9%             2.0%            2.0%             3.3%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                          27,981           24,214          38,737          44,905           135,838          32,357           28,437          42,933           49,249         152,976
 %CHYA                                   15.0%            12.4%           14.6%           18.2%             15.5%           15.6%            17.4%           10.8%             9.7%           12.6%

REFUNDS                                 41,058         107,356           51,330          37,011          236,755           36,315         103,879           57,663           44,046         241,903
 %CHYA                                  -10.7%           -9.8%            -6.3%           -4.9%            -8.5%           -11.6%           -3.2%            12.3%            19.0%            2.2%
        1
TOTAL                                  126,659         135,712           79,393         207,471           549,235         142,758          152,053          79,059         208,687          582,557
 %CHYA                                   24.1%           36.8%            29.5%           13.2%             23.2%           12.7%            12.0%           -0.4%            0.6%             6.1%

                                                                                                         FY                                                                                 FY
                                     2015:3           2015:4          2016:1          2016:2            2016             2016:3          2016:4          2017:1           2017:2           2017
                           1
ADVANCE PAYMENTS                       143,535         221,915           92,719         199,960           658,130         145,807         225,130           93,945         202,223          667,105
 %CHYA                                   -2.2%           -2.5%            -1.1%           -1.7%             -2.0%            1.6%            1.4%             1.3%            1.1%             1.4%
                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                          32,857           28,785          43,385          49,275           154,302          33,073           29,085          43,445           49,213         154,816
 %CHYA                                    1.5%             1.2%            1.1%            0.1%              0.9%            0.7%             1.0%            0.1%            -0.1%            0.3%
REFUNDS                                 40,765         107,900           61,656          46,746          257,067           43,528         110,009           63,445           47,972         264,954
 %CHYA                                   12.3%            3.9%             6.9%            6.1%             6.3%             6.8%            2.0%             2.9%             2.6%            3.1%
        1
TOTAL                                  135,627         142,800           74,448         202,490           555,364         135,352          144,206          73,945         203,464          556,967
 %CHYA                                   -5.0%           -6.1%            -5.8%           -3.0%             -4.7%           -0.2%             1.0%           -0.7%            0.5%             0.3%

                                                                                                         FY                                                                                 FY
                                     2017:3           2017:4          2018:1          2018:2            2018             2018:3          2018:4          2019:1           2019:2           2019

                           1
ADVANCE PAYMENTS                       146,051         225,624           94,513         203,151           669,340         149,116         229,634           97,565         209,103          685,418
 %CHYA                                    0.2%            0.2%             0.6%            0.5%              0.3%            2.1%            1.8%             3.2%            2.9%             2.4%

                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                          33,174           29,178          43,301          49,172           154,826          33,257           29,395          43,994           50,027         156,674
 %CHYA                                    0.3%             0.3%           -0.3%           -0.1%              0.0%            0.3%             0.7%            1.6%             1.7%            1.2%

REFUNDS                                 45,189         111,285           64,633          48,909          270,016           45,221         111,964           64,096           48,390         269,671
 %CHYA                                    3.8%            1.2%             1.9%            2.0%             1.9%             0.1%            0.6%            -0.8%            -1.1%           -0.1%

        1
TOTAL                                  134,037         143,518           73,181         203,415           554,150         137,152          147,065          77,463         210,741          572,421
 %CHYA                                   -1.0%           -0.5%            -1.0%            0.0%             -0.5%            2.3%             2.5%            5.9%            3.6%             3.3%

                                                                                                         FY                                                                                 FY
                                     2019:3           2019:4          2020:1          2020:2            2020             2020:3          2020:4          2021:1           2021:2           2021

                           1
ADVANCE PAYMENTS                       151,357         231,984           99,944         210,127           693,412         152,877         234,460          102,423         212,978          702,738
 %CHYA                                    1.5%            1.0%             2.4%            0.5%              1.2%            1.0%            1.1%             2.5%            1.4%             1.3%

                      1
FINAL PAYMENTS                          34,428           30,585          45,277          51,343           161,634          36,768           32,863          47,727           53,995         171,353
 %CHYA                                    3.5%             4.0%            2.9%            2.6%              3.2%            6.8%             7.4%            5.4%             5.2%            6.0%

REFUNDS                                 44,521         111,071           61,916          46,270          263,779           43,198         109,483           60,467           45,470         258,618
 %CHYA                                   -1.5%           -0.8%            -3.4%           -4.4%            -2.2%            -3.0%           -1.4%            -2.3%            -1.7%           -2.0%

        1
TOTAL                                  141,264         151,497           83,305         215,200           591,267         146,447          157,839          89,683         221,503          615,472
 %CHYA                                    3.0%            3.0%             7.5%            2.1%              3.3%            3.7%             4.2%            7.7%            2.9%             4.1%
1
  Includes reductions related to credits realized under the Business Energy Tax Credit Program, adjustments for connecting with federal tax law, and increases related to the sunset of tax credits
associated with HB2607.




                                                                                               112
      TABLE B.6                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          September 2011
      Cigarette & Tobacco Tax Distribution (Millions of $)*
                                                                                                            Cigarette Tax Distribution                                                                                       Other Tobacco Tax Distribution
                                                                                                        Tobacco Use
                                                                                Health Plan              Reduction                                                Cities,                                                                              Tobacco Use
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 4
                                                          State GF             (Measure 44)                Account                                             Counties &                                                      Health Plan              Reduction
                                                                        1                       1                       2                                                         3                                                                               4
                                                        (22 cents)               (87 cents)               (3 cents)               State Total              Public Transit                 Total              State GF          (Measure 44)             Account       State Total

      Distribution Forecast*
      2009-10                                                     37.517                146.676                    5.851                 190.043                  11.701                  201.745                  19.956                  15.532             1.727       37.215
      2010-11                                                     39.320                151.275                    6.034                 196.629                  12.068                  208.697                  27.372                  21.487             2.390       51.249
      2009-11 Biennium                                            76.837                297.951                   11.885                 386.673                  23.769                  410.442                  47.328                  37.019             4.117       88.464

      2011-12                                                     37.498                146.141                    5.829                 189.469                  11.659                  201.127                  28.504                  21.992             2.446       52.943
      2012-13                                                     36.496                142.234                    5.673                 184.403                  11.347                  195.750                  29.757                  22.959             2.553       55.269
      2011-13 Biennium                                            73.994                288.375                   11.503                 373.872                  23.005                  396.877                  58.261                  44.951             4.999      108.212

      2013-14                                                     35.114                136.847                    5.459                 177.419                  10.917                  188.336                  30.870                  23.817             2.649       57.336
      2014-15                                                     33.619                131.022                    5.226                 169.867                  10.452                  180.320                  32.004                  24.692             2.746       59.442




113
      2013-15 Biennium                                            68.733                267.869                   10.685                 347.287                  21.370                  368.656                  62.873                  48.510             5.395      116.778
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Table B.6 Cigarette and Tobacco Tax Distribution 1




      2015-16                                                     32.134                125.234                     4.995                162.363                  9.991                   172.353                  33.279                  25.676             2.856       61.810
      2016-17                                                     30.186                117.641                     4.692                152.520                  9.385                   161.904                  34.531                  26.642             2.963       64.136
      2015-17 Biennium                                            62.319                242.875                     9.688                314.882                  19.376                  334.258                  67.809                  52.318             5.819      125.946

      2017-18                                                     28.827                112.348                     4.481                145.656                  8.963                   154.619                  35.843                  27.654             3.076       66.573
      2018-19                                                     27.530                107.292                     4.280                139.102                  8.559                   147.661                  37.205                  28.705             3.193       69.102
      2017-19 Biennium                                            56.357                219.640                     8.761                284.758                  17.522                  302.280                  73.047                  56.359             6.268      135.675

      2019-20                                                    26.291                 102.464                     4.087                132.842                  8.174                   141.016                  38.619                  29.796             3.314       71.728
      2020-21                                                    25.108                  97.853                     3.903                126.864                  7.806                   134.670                  40.086                  30.928             3.440       74.454
      2019-21 Biennium                                           51.399                 200.317                     7.990                259.706                  15.980                  275.687                  78.705                  60.724             6.754      146.182

      1. The 1997 Legislature specified that the temporary 10 cent tax be counted as other funds starting July 1, 1997. As a result the Health Plan receiv ed 37 cents per pack as of July 1, 1997. The 10 cent tax has ex pired on January 1, 2004.
        Voters approv ed 60 cents per pack tax increase dedicated to the Health Plan, effectiv e Nov ember 1, 2002.
      2. Measure 44 created the TURA and funded it w ith a 3 cents per pack tax effectiv e February 1, 1997.
      3. Cities, Counties and Public Transit each receiv e rev enue from a 2 cent per pack tax . The total amount show n equals the total 6 cents per pack dedicated to these entities.
      4. Measure 44 increased the other tobacco tax es from 35% to 65% of the w holesale price, effectiv e February 1, 1997. House Bill 3433, enacted by the 2001 Legislature, limits this tax to 50 cents per cigar.
        The Health Plan receiv es 41.54% of the rev enue from the other tobacco tax collections. The TURA receiv es 4.62 % of collections. The remainder goes to the General Fund.
Table B.7 Revenue Distribution to Local Governments 1

TABLE B.7                                                                                                                        September 2011
Revenue Distribution to Local Governments (Millions of $)

                                                            Liquor Apportionment Distribution
                                                                                                                              Cigarette Tax
                            Total Liquor          Available for      City Revenue                                            Distribution to
                             Revenue Less General Cities and Revenue                                                        Cities, Counties &
                                                                                                                                              1
                             Available        Fund 56%           Counties        Sharing    Regular    Total     Counties    Public Transit

2009-10                          186.390            104.378             82.011     26.095     37.278    63.372     18.639        11.701
2010-11                          167.687             93.905             73.782     23.476     33.537    57.014     16.769        12.068
2009-11 Biennium                 354.077            198.283            155.794     49.571     70.815   120.386     35.408        23.769


2011-12                          163.964             91.820             72.144     22.955     32.793    55.748     16.396        11.659
2012-13                          170.657             95.568             75.089     23.892     34.131    58.023     17.066        11.347
2011-13 Biennium                 334.621            187.388            147.233     46.847     66.924   113.771     33.462        23.005


2013-14                          175.776             98.435             77.342     24.609     35.155    59.764     17.578        10.917
2014-15                          181.050            101.388             79.662     25.347     36.210    61.557     18.105        10.452
2013-15 Biennium                 356.826            199.822            157.003     49.956     71.365   121.321     35.683        21.370


2015-16                          186.481            104.429             82.052     26.107     37.296    63.404     18.648         9.991
2016-17                          192.075            107.562             84.513     26.891     38.415    65.306     19.208         9.385
2015-17 Biennium                 378.557            211.992            166.565     52.998     75.711   128.709     37.856        19.376


2017-18                          197.838            110.789             87.049     27.697     39.568    67.265     19.784         8.963
2018-19                          203.773            114.113             89.660     28.528     40.755    69.283     20.377         8.559
2017-19 Biennium                 401.611            224.902            176.709     56.225     80.322   136.548     40.161        17.522


2019-20                          209.886            117.536             92.350     29.384     41.977    71.361     20.989         8.174
2020-21                          216.183            121.062             95.120     30.266     43.237    73.502     21.618         7.806
2019-21 Biennium                 426.069            238.598            187.470     59.650     85.214   144.863     42.607        15.980
1
    For details on cigarette revenues see TABLE B.6 on previous page




                                                                                 114
Table B.8 Track Record for the May 2011 Forecast 1

Table B.8 Track Record for the May 2011 Forecast
(Quarter ending June 30, 2011)

Personal Income Tax                         Forecast Comparison                     Year/Year Change
                                  Actual          Latest            Percent        Prior            Percent
   (Millions of dollars)         Revenues        Forecast          Difference      Year             Change
   Withholding                       $1,218.4        $1,214.7               0.3%     $1,116.6              9.1%
     Dollar difference                                   $3.8                          $104.9
   Estimated Payments                  $284.7          $287.5              -1.0%       $265.7              7.1%
      Dollar difference                                 -$2.9                           $20.1
   Final Payments                      $607.6          $632.4              -3.9%       $515.3            17.9%
      Dollar difference                                -$24.8                            $9.1
   Refunds                            -$340.7         -$386.9             -12.0%      -$380.5           -10.5%
      Dollar difference                                 $46.3                           $27.1
   Total Personal Income Tax         $1,770.0        $1,747.7               1.3%     $1,517.1            16.7%
      Dollar difference                                 $22.3                          $253.0

Corporate Income Tax                        Forecast Comparison                     Year/Year Change
                                  Actual          Latest            Percent        Prior            Percent
   (Millions of dollars)         Revenues        Forecast          Difference      Year             Change
   Advanced Payments                   $165.4          $184.4             -10.3%       $147.3            12.2%
      Dollar difference                                -$19.1                            $18.0
   Final Payments                       $40.8             $55.4           -26.3%           $45.7        -10.7%
      Dollar difference                                  -$14.6                            -$4.9
   Refunds                             -$31.5            -$45.3           -30.5%           -$25.8        22.2%
      Dollar difference                                   $13.8                             -$5.7

   Total Corporate Income Tax          $174.7          $194.5             -10.2%       $167.3              4.4%
     Dollar difference                                 -$19.9                            $7.4

Total Income Tax                            Forecast Comparison                     Year/Year Change
                                   Actual           Latest          Percent        Prior         Percent
   (Millions of dollars)         Revenues         Forecast         Difference      Year          Change
   Corporate and Personal Tax        $1,944.7        $1,942.2               0.1%     $1,684.3            15.5%
      Dollar difference                                     $2.5                           $260.4




                                                   115
      TABLE B.9                                                                                                                                                                                                            Sept 2011 Forecas t
      Summary of Lottery Resources
      Date: 08/23/2011                                              2011-13                                        2013-15                               2015-17                           2017-19                         2019-21

                                                                    Current Change from Change                      Current         Change from            Current        Change from       Current         Change from    Current      Change from
      (in millions of dollars)                                      Forecast  May-11    from LAB                    Forecast          May-11               Forecast         May-11          Forecast          May-11       Forecast       May-11
      LOTTERY EARNINGS
          Traditional Lottery1                                       128.331           (0.175)       (0.175)            128.245            (0.738)            127.745            (0.957)          127.068        (1.045)     126.560         (1.041)
          Video Lottery                                              985.388           (6.402)       (6.402)          1,087.759            (8.379)          1,199.100           (19.451)      1,333.144         (24.644)    1,480.459       (27.367)
          Admin. Savings                                               8.000            0.000         0.000                0.000            0.000                0.000            0.000             0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000
        Total Available to Transfer                                 1,121.719          (6.577)       (6.577)          1,216.005            (9.117)          1,326.845           (20.408)      1,460.212         (25.689)    1,607.019       (28.408)

      ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT FUND
          Beginning Balance                                            0.245            0.000        (0.000)               0.000            0.000                0.000            0.000             0.000         0.000         0.000         0.000
          Transfers from Lottery                                    1,121.719          (6.577)       (6.577)          1,216.005            (9.117)          1,326.845           (20.408)      1,460.212         (25.689)    1,607.019       (28.408)
          Other Resources2                                             2.461            1.361         0.000                2.000            0.000                2.000            0.000             2.000         0.000         2.000         0.000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Table B.9 Summary of Lottery Resources 1




        Total Available Resources                                   1,124.425          (5.216)       (6.577)          1,218.005            (9.117)          1,328.845           (20.408)      1,462.212         (25.689)    1,609.019       (28.408)

      ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES




116
          County Economic Development                                 37.119           (0.962)        0.000              41.766            (0.322)              46.042           (0.747)           51.187        (0.946)       56.844        (1.051)
          Education Stability Fund 3                                 201.909           (1.184)       (1.184)            218.881            (1.641)            238.832            (3.673)          262.838        (4.624)     289.263         (5.113)
          Parks and Natural Resources Fund4                          168.258           (0.987)       (0.987)            182.401            (1.368)            199.027            (3.061)          219.032        (3.853)     241.053         (4.261)
          OUS Sports Lottery Account 5                                 8.826           (2.457)        0.000              12.160            (0.091)              13.268           (0.204)           14.602        (0.257)       16.070        (0.284)
          Gambling Addiction 5                                        10.973           (0.310)        0.000              12.160            (0.091)              13.268           (0.204)           14.602        (0.257)       16.070        (0.284)
          County Fairs                                                 3.600           (0.130)        0.000                3.648            0.000                3.648            0.000             3.648         0.000         3.648         0.000
         Other Legilatively Adopted Allocations6                      670.625        406.568          0.000             272.600             0.000             250.500             0.000           250.500         0.000      250.500          0.000
        Total Distributions                                         1,101.309        400.538         (2.170)            743.616            (3.513)            764.586            (7.890)          816.410        (9.937)     873.448        (10.994)

      Ending Balance/Discretionary Resources                          23.116        (405.753)        (4.407)            474.389            (5.605)            564.260           (12.518)          645.803       (15.751)     735.571        (17.414)
      Note: Some totals may not foot due to rounding.
      1. Includes planned raffles throughout the forecast period.
      2. Includes interest earnings on Economic Dev elopment Fund and rev ersions.
      3. Eighteen percent of proceeds accrue to the Ed. Stability Fund, until the balance equals 5% of GF Rev enues. Thereafter, 15% of proceeds accrue to the Oregon Capital Matching Account.
      4. The Parks and Natural Resources Fund Constitutional amendment requires 15% of net proceeds be transferred to this fund.
      5. One percent of net lottery proceeds are dedicated to Collegiate Athletics and Gambling Addiction programs, respectiv ely . Certain limits are imposed by HB 5035 for 2011-13.
      6. Includes Debt Serv ice Allocations, Allocations to State School Fund and Other Agency Allocations
Table B.10 Budgetary Reserve Summary and Outlook 1

Table B.10: Budgetary Reserve Summary and Outlook                                                                                                           September 2011

Rainy Day Fund
    (Millions)                                               2007-09           2009-11          2011-13           2013-15            2015-17          2017-19          2019-21
    Beginning Balance                                              $0.0           $112.5              $10.4            $46.1            $249.0           $505.3            $805.9
    Interest Earnings                                             $18.3              $1.3              $0.5              $5.4            $33.6             $59.9            $90.0
                 1
    Deposits                                                      $94.3          -$103.4              $35.2          $197.5             $222.6           $240.7            $263.0
                             2
    Ending Balance                                              $112.5              $10.4             $46.1          $249.0             $505.3           $805.9         $1,158.9

Education Stability Fund3
    (Millions)                                               2007-09           2009-11          2011-13           2013-15            2015-17          2017-19          2019-21
    Beginning Balance                                           $178.9               $0.0              $5.1            $15.2            $212.8           $428.4            $669.1
                             4
    Interest Earnings                                             $17.2              $1.0              $0.5              $4.6             $27.6            $49.2            $71.9
                 5
    Deposits                                                   -$178.9            $101.4             $192.4          $197.6             $215.6           $240.7            $195.3
    Distributions                                                -$17.1            -$97.4         -$182.8               -$4.6           -$27.6            -$49.2           -$71.9
     Oregon Education Fund                                       -$12.8             -$0.7           -$0.4               -$3.5           -$20.7            -$36.9           -$54.0
     State Scholarship Commission                                 -$4.3             -$0.2           -$0.1               -$1.2            -$6.9            -$12.3           -$18.0
     Withdrawals                                                   $0.0            -$96.4         -$182.2                $0.0             $0.0              $0.0             $0.0
    Ending Balance                                                 $0.0              $5.1             $15.2          $212.8             $428.4           $669.1            $864.4

Total Reserves
    (Millions)                                               2007-09           2009-11          2011-13           2013-15            2015-17          2017-19          2019-21
    Ending Balances                                             $112.6              $15.5             $61.3          $461.8             $933.7        $1,475.0          $2,023.4
    Percent of GF Revenues                                        1.0%              0.1%              0.4%              2.9%              5.3%             7.6%                 9.4%

Footnotes:
1. Includes transfer of ending General Fund balances, up to 1% of budgeted appropriations, as w ell as priv ate donations. Assumes future appropriations equal to 98.75 percent
of av ailable resources. Includes a w ithdraw al of $225 million in June 2009, and a future w ithdraw al of $115.7 million in the 2009-11 biennium for the State School Fund.
Starting w ith 2013-15, projected corporate income tax es abov e the rate of 6.6% for the biennium are deposited on or before June 30 of each odd-numbered y ear.
2. Av ailable funds in a giv en biennium equal 2/3rds of the beginning balance under current law .
3. Ex cludes funds in the Oregon Grow th and the Oregon Resource and Technology Dev elopment subaccounts.
4. Interest earnings are distributed to the Oregon Education Funds (75%) and the State Scholarship Fund (25%).
5. Contributions to the ESF are capped at 5% of the prior biennium's General Fund rev enue total. Quarterly contributions are made until the balance ex ceeds the cap.
Includes w ithdraw als of $393.8 million in FY 2008-09 and a future w ithdraw al of $84.3 million in FY 2010-11 for the State School Fund. For FY 2011-12, includes a
w ithdraw al of $100 million to the 2011-12 School Year Subaccount.




                                                                                       117
APPENDIX C:                POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE AND SEX


  Table C.1 Population Forecasts Component of Change 1980-2020 1 .................................. 121

  Table C.2 Population Forecasts by Age and Sex: 2000-2020 1 ........................................... 122

  Table C.3 Population of Oregon: 1980-2020 1 ..................................................................... 123

  Table C.4 Children: Ages 0-4 1 ............................................................................................ 123

  Table C.5 School Age Population: Ages 5-17 1 ................................................................... 123

  Table C.6 Young Adult Population: Ages 18-24 1 ............................................................... 123

  Table C.7 Criminally At Risk Population: Males Ages 15-39 1 .......................................... 124

  Table C.8 Prime Wage Earners: Ages 25-44 1 ..................................................................... 124

  Table C.9 Older Wage Earners: Ages 45-64 1 ..................................................................... 124

  Table C.10 Elderly Population by Age Group 1 ................................................................... 124




                                                            118
119
OREGON'S POPULATION FORECASTS BY AGE AND SEX

Procedure and Assumptions

Population forecasts by age and sex are developed using the cohort-component projection
procedure. The population by single year of age and sex is projected based on the specific
assumptions of vital events and migrations. Oregon’s population from the most recent decennial
census is the base for the forecast. To explain the cohort-component projection procedure very
briefly, the forecasting model "survives" the initial population distribution by age and sex to the
next age-sex category in the following year, and then applies age-sex-specific birth and
migration rates to the mid-year population. Further iterations subject the in-and-out migrants to
the same population.

Populations by age-sex detail for the years 2000 through 2009, called intercensal estimates, in
the following tables are developed by OEA based on 2010 Census and Intercensal totals from the
Population Research Center, Portland State University. The numbers of births and deaths through
2009-10 are from Oregon's Center for Health Statistics. The total populations for the period
2011 to 2020 are generated as part of the economic and revenue forecast of OEA.

Annual numbers of births are determined based on the age-specific fertility rates projected based
on Oregon's past trends and past and projected national trends. Oregon's total fertility rate is
assumed to remain below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman during the forecast
period, tracking at slightly lower than the national rate.

Life Table survival rates are developed for the year 2000. Male and female life expectancies for
the 2000-2020 period are projected based on the past three decades of trends and national
projected life expectancies. Gradual improvements in life expectancies are expected over the
forecast period. At the same time, the difference between the male and female life expectancies
will continue to shrink. The male life expectancy of 75.7 and the female life expectancy of 80.2
in 2000 are projected to improve to 79.6 years for males and 83.8 years for females by the year
2020.

Estimates and forecasts of the number of net migrations are based on the residuals from the
difference between population change and natural increase (births minus deaths) in a given
forecast period. The migration forecasting model uses Oregon’s employment, unemployment
rates and income/wage data from Oregon and other states. Distribution of migrants by age and
sex is based on detailed data from the American Community Survey. The annual net migration
between 2010 and 2020 is expected to remain in the range of 9,800 to 35,200, averaging 27,300
persons annually. Slowdown in Oregon’s economy in the recent years resulted in smaller net
migration and slow population growth. Population growth and net migration rates in 2010 were
the lowest in over two decades. This slow population growth, as a result of slow economy and
high unemployment rate, is expected to continue in the near future. Migration is intrinsically
related to economy and employment situation of the state. Still, current high unemployment and
job loss have impacted net migration and population growth, but not to the extent in the early
1980s. Main reason for this is the fact that other states of potential destination for Oregon out-
migrants are not faring any better either. Hence the potential out-migrants have very limited
destination choices.



                                               120
Table C.1 Population Forecasts Component of Change 1980-2020 1
                                                          STATE OF OREGON
                                                        POPULATION FORECASTS
                                                    COMPONENTS OF CHANGE 1980 -2020
 Year                       Population Change                  Births                   Deaths                Natural         Net Migration
 (July 1)   Population        Number Percent             Number Rate/1000          Number Rate/1000          Increase       Number Rate/1000
 ------     -----------    ----------- --------       ----------- --------      ----------- --------      -----------    -----------    --------
 1980       2,641,200             ---        ---             ---        ---            ---      ---               ---           ---        ---
 1981       2,668,000          26,800       1.01          43,196      16.27         21,870     8.24           21,326          5,474         2.06
 1982       2,664,900          -3,100      -0.12          42,261      15.85         21,548     8.08           20,713        -23,813       -8.93
 1983       2,653,100         -11,800      -0.44          40,378      15.19         22,039     8.29           18,339        -30,139      -11.33
 1984       2,666,600          13,500       0.51          39,611      14.89         22,702     8.54           16,909         -3,409       -1.28
 1985       2,672,600           6,000       0.23          39,296      14.72         23,531     8.81           15,765         -9,765       -3.66
1980-1985                      31,400                   204,742                   111,690                    93,052        -61,652
 1986       2,683,500          10,900       0.41        39,332       14.69        23,403         8.74        15,929         -5,029        -1.88
 1987       2,701,000          17,500       0.65        38,702       14.38        23,695         8.80        15,007          2,493         0.93
 1988       2,741,300          40,300       1.49        39,120       14.38        24,752         9.10        14,368         25,932         9.53
 1989       2,790,600          49,300       1.80        40,648       14.70        24,705         8.93        15,943         33,357        12.06
 1990       2,860,400          69,800       2.50        42,008       14.87        24,763         8.76        17,245         52,555        18.60
1985-1990                    187,800                    199,810                   121,318                    78,492        109,308
 1991       2,928,500          68,100       2.38        42,682       14.75        24,944         8.62        17,738         50,362        17.40
 1992       2,991,800          63,300       2.16        42,427       14.33        25,166         8.50        17,261         46,039        15.55
 1993       3,060,400          68,600       2.29        41,442       13.69        26,543         8.77        14,899         53,701        17.75
 1994       3,121,300          60,900       1.99        41,487       13.42        27,564         8.92        13,923         46,977        15.20
 1995       3,184,400          63,100       2.02        42,426       13.46        27,552         8.74        14,874         48,226        15.30
1990-1995                    324,000                    210,464                   131,769                    78,695        245,305
 1996       3,247,100          62,700       1.97        43,196       13.43        28,768         8.95        14,428         48,272        15.01
 1997       3,304,300          57,200       1.76        43,625       13.32        29,201         8.91        14,424         42,776        13.06
 1998       3,352,400          48,100       1.46        44,696       13.43        28,705         8.62        15,991         32,109         9.65
 1999       3,393,900          41,500       1.24        45,188       13.40        29,848         8.85        15,340         26,160         7.76
 2000       3,431,100          37,200       1.10        45,534       13.34        28,909         8.47        16,625         20,575         6.03
1995-2000                    246,700                    222,239                   145,431                    76,808        169,892
 2001       3,470,400          39,300       1.15        45,536       13.20        29,934         8.67        15,602         23,698         6.87
 2002       3,502,600          32,200       0.93        44,995       12.91        30,828         8.84        14,167         18,033         5.17
 2003       3,538,600          36,000       1.03        45,686       12.98        30,604         8.69        15,082         20,918         5.94
 2004       3,578,900          40,300       1.14        45,599       12.81        30,721         8.63        14,878         25,422         7.14
 2005       3,626,900          48,000       1.34        45,892       12.74        30,717         8.53        15,175         32,825         9.11
2000-2005                    195,800                    227,708                   152,804                    74,904        120,896
 2006       3,685,200          58,300       1.61        46,946       12.84        30,771         8.42        16,175         42,125        11.52
 2007       3,739,400          54,200       1.47        49,404       13.31        31,396         8.46        18,008         36,192         9.75
 2008       3,784,200          44,800       1.20        49,659       13.20        32,008         8.51        17,651         27,149         7.22
 2009       3,815,800          31,600       0.84        47,687       12.55        31,382         8.26        16,305         15,295         4.03
 2010       3,837,300          21,500       0.56        45,583       11.91        31,339         8.19        14,244          7,256         1.90
2005-2010                    210,400                    239,279                   156,896                    82,383        128,017
 2011       3,861,600          24,300       0.63        46,417       12.06        31,953         8.30        14,464          9,836         2.56
 2012       3,892,900          31,300       0.81        48,007       12.38        32,278         8.33        15,729         15,571         4.02
 2013       3,929,500          36,600       0.94        48,482       12.40        32,599         8.33        15,883         20,717         5.30
 2014       3,972,100          42,600       1.08        49,077       12.42        32,887         8.32        16,190         26,410         6.68
 2015       4,019,000          46,901       1.18        49,749       12.45        33,205         8.31        16,544         30,356         7.60
2010-2015                     181,700                   241,733                   162,923                    78,810        102,890

 2016       4,068,000          49,000        1.22       50,441       12.47        33,578         8.30        16,863         32,136         7.95
 2017       4,118,700          50,700        1.25       51,191       12.51        33,984         8.30        17,206         33,494         8.18
 2018       4,170,800          52,101        1.26       51,827       12.50        34,458         8.31        17,369         34,731         8.38
 2019       4,223,300          52,500        1.26       52,496       12.51        34,978         8.33        17,518         34,982         8.33
 2020       4,276,100          52,800        1.25       53,180       12.51        35,498         8.35        17,682         35,119         8.26

2015-2020                     257,100                   259,135                   172,497                    86,639        170,461

1980-1990                     219,200                   404,552                   233,008                   171,544         47,656
1990-2000                     570,700                   432,703                   277,200                   155,503        415,197
2000-2010                     406,200                   466,987                   309,700                   157,287        248,913
2010-2020                     438,800                   500,868                   335,419                   165,449        273,351

Sources: 1980-1999 population - U.S. Census Bureau; 2000-2010 population - intercensal estimates by Office of Economic Analysis based
on 2010 Census and post-censal estimates by Population Research Center, PSU; births and deaths 1980-10: Oregon Center for Health Statistics.




                                                                              121
Table C.2 Population Forecasts by Age and Sex: 2000-2020 1
                                                     Oregon's Population Forecasts by Age and Sex: 2001-2020 (July 1 population)

                          2001                                2002                                2003                                2004                                2005
  Age          Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total
  0-4       114,742     109,903     224,645     115,219     109,865     225,084     116,118     110,533     226,652     117,038     111,315     228,353     117,847     112,161     230,008
  5- 9      118,879     113,240     232,119     117,908     112,625     230,533     117,595     112,522     230,117     118,055     112,983     231,038     118,737     113,851     232,588
 10-14      125,950     119,470     245,421     126,474     120,344     246,818     127,007     120,408     247,415     126,169     119,728     245,898     124,732     118,604     243,336
 15-19      127,311     119,879     247,190     127,250     119,862     247,112     126,490     120,236     246,726     127,484     121,227     248,711     129,634     122,978     252,612
 20-24      120,814     115,792     236,605     122,925     118,001     240,926     125,433     119,922     245,356     127,001     121,951     248,952     128,090     122,777     250,867
 25-29      119,436     111,809     231,245     119,216     112,937     232,153     120,690     114,847     235,536     122,799     117,484     240,282     125,208     121,121     246,329
 30-34      125,882     117,768     243,651     127,842     119,417     247,259     128,373     120,485     248,858     127,650     119,951     247,601     126,179     119,324     245,503
 35-39      125,463     122,883     248,346     123,019     119,340     242,360     121,225     116,792     238,017     121,489     116,438     237,927     124,789     119,125     243,914
 40-44      134,585     136,761     271,346     133,102     135,121     268,224     131,876     133,467     265,343     131,106     132,016     263,121     129,401     129,428     258,829
 45-49      136,214     138,948     275,162     136,992     140,305     277,297     136,336     140,343     276,679     134,864     139,381     274,245     134,310     139,320     273,629
 50-54      125,826     127,295     253,120     126,548     128,354     254,902     129,544     132,212     261,756     132,767     136,330     269,097     135,022     138,899     273,921
 55-59       89,314      91,758     181,072      98,235     100,967     199,202     103,863     106,596     210,460     109,932     112,923     222,855     117,120     120,794     237,914
 60-64       67,383      70,539     137,922      70,666      74,175     144,841      75,490      79,114     154,604      80,095      83,740     163,835      84,062      88,300     172,361
 65-69       53,861      59,438     113,299      54,996      60,295     115,291      56,889      62,083     118,972      59,083      64,273     123,356      61,643      66,384     128,027
 70-74       48,249      57,290     105,539      47,788      56,535     104,323      47,448      55,941     103,389      47,523      55,493     103,016      48,249      55,650     103,899
 75-79       40,503      54,397      94,900      40,508      53,697      94,204      40,627      52,917      93,545      40,403      52,009      92,412      40,366      51,512      91,878
 80-84       27,465      41,513      68,978      28,398      42,507      70,905      28,798      43,326      72,124      29,266      44,164      73,430      29,725      44,474      74,199
  85+        19,293      40,549      59,843      19,854      41,313      61,167      20,727      42,323      63,050      21,444      43,325      64,769      22,398      44,689      67,087

 Total     1,721,170   1,749,230   3,470,400   1,736,939   1,765,661   3,502,600   1,754,532   1,784,068   3,538,600   1,774,167   1,804,733   3,578,900   1,797,511   1,829,389   3,626,900
Mdn. Age        35.3        37.8        36.6        35.5        38.0        36.8        35.7        38.2        36.9        35.8        38.4        37.1        36.0        38.5        37.2

                          2006                                2007                                2008                                2009                                 2010
  Age          Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total
  0-4       118,832     113,050     231,882     121,058     115,102     236,160     122,723     116,618     239,340     123,056     116,873     239,929     122,327     116,130     238,457
  5- 9      119,959     115,315     235,274     120,925     115,818     236,743     121,906     116,639     238,545     122,109     116,793     238,901     121,539     116,369     237,908
 10-14      124,400     118,240     242,639     124,017     118,145     242,162     124,144     118,401     242,545     124,495     118,646     243,140     124,508     118,732     243,241
 15-19      131,680     124,886     256,567     133,027     126,562     259,588     134,019     127,039     261,058     133,094     126,245     259,339     131,126     124,540     255,667
 20-24      129,625     123,869     253,494     129,491     124,047     253,538     128,090     124,102     252,192     128,034     124,294     252,328     128,787     124,903     253,689
 25-29      128,110     125,220     253,330     131,446     128,889     260,335     134,251     131,308     265,559     134,893     132,724     267,617     134,019     131,816     265,835
 30-34      126,016     119,767     245,782     126,936     121,971     248,907     128,841     124,231     253,072     130,499     126,264     256,763     131,489     128,325     259,814
 35-39      128,779     122,827     251,606     131,387     125,260     256,647     132,046     126,581     258,627     130,807     125,534     256,341     128,070     123,596     251,665
 40-44      126,728     126,664     253,391     124,917     123,759     248,677     123,362     121,440     244,802     123,395     120,853     244,249     125,969     122,843     248,811
 45-49      135,135     139,543     274,678     134,349     138,533     272,882     133,523     137,181     270,705     132,802     135,635     268,437     130,825     132,538     263,363
 50-54      136,187     140,978     277,165     137,589     142,901     280,489     137,266     143,176     280,443     135,862     142,064     277,926     135,129     141,565     276,693
 55-59      124,581     129,098     253,680     125,683     130,760     256,444     128,665     134,868     263,533     131,454     138,782     270,236     133,011     140,802     273,812
 60-64       87,811      92,304     180,115      97,117     102,054     199,171     102,948     107,873     210,821     108,952     114,138     223,090     115,236     121,045     236,281
 65-69       64,860      69,850     134,710      68,563      73,945     142,509      73,612      79,164     152,776      78,191      83,768     161,959      81,854      87,917     169,771
 70-74       49,222      55,999     105,221      50,569      57,052     107,622      52,510      58,915     111,425      54,604      61,042     115,646      56,925      62,949     119,874
 75-79       40,359      51,026      91,385      40,218      50,594      90,812      40,073      50,211      90,285      40,236      49,905      90,141      40,932      50,101      91,034
 80-84       29,996      44,406      74,402      30,251      44,085      74,336      30,464      43,606      74,069      30,361      43,011      73,372      30,391      42,734      73,126
  85+        23,554      46,323      69,877      24,585      47,794      72,379      25,325      49,078      74,403      26,014      50,369      76,383      26,800      51,458      78,258

 Total     1,825,834   1,859,366   3,685,200   1,852,129   1,887,271   3,739,400   1,873,769   1,910,431   3,784,200   1,888,859   1,926,941   3,815,800   1,898,938   1,938,362   3,837,300
Mdn. Age        36.3        38.6        37.3        36.5        38.7        37.5        36.7        38.8        37.8        37.0        39.1        38.0        37.2        39.4        38.3

                           2011                                2012                                2013                                2014                                2015
  Age          Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total
  0-4       121,675     115,723     237,398     121,666     115,633     237,299     122,075     115,900     237,975     123,280     117,344     240,624     125,249     119,342     244,591
  5- 9      121,906     115,992     237,898     123,001     117,094     240,095     124,327     118,193     242,520     125,004     118,338     243,342     125,603     118,662     244,265
 10-14      124,184     119,118     243,303     123,862     118,437     242,299     123,811     118,394     242,205     124,029     118,665     242,694     123,796     118,491     242,287
 15-19      129,054     122,030     251,084     127,406     120,776     248,182     126,299     120,092     246,391     126,231     120,225     246,456     126,784     120,879     247,664
 20-24      131,010     127,026     258,036     133,687     129,343     263,030     136,240     131,113     267,353     137,610     132,162     269,771     137,731     132,119     269,850
 25-29      133,485     130,980     264,465     132,709     130,042     262,752     132,549     130,064     262,614     134,322     131,815     266,136     137,218     134,852     272,070
 30-34      133,684     130,977     264,661     135,980     133,807     269,787     137,476     135,631     273,108     139,737     137,866     277,603     140,618     138,676     279,294
 35-39      125,895     121,845     247,740     125,886     122,416     248,302     128,319     124,582     252,902     130,166     126,952     257,118     133,339     130,378     263,717
 40-44      129,012     125,392     254,404     130,783     126,651     257,434     131,234     127,388     258,623     130,408     126,441     256,849     128,842     124,800     253,642
 45-49      127,880     128,667     256,547     125,575     125,229     250,804     123,891     122,418     246,309     124,089     121,594     245,683     126,387     123,403     249,791
 50-54      134,904     140,782     275,686     133,970     139,479     273,449     132,808     137,830     270,637     132,440     136,366     268,806     130,843     133,599     264,443
 55-59      134,195     142,374     276,569     134,752     143,105     277,858     134,704     142,611     277,315     133,546     141,592     275,138     133,259     141,346     274,604
 60-64      121,417     127,810     249,228     122,873     129,589     252,462     124,707     132,827     257,534     127,259     136,735     263,994     129,461     139,326     268,786
 65-69       84,346      90,797     175,143      91,880      98,684     190,564      97,519     104,872     202,390     102,761     110,186     212,947     108,761     117,087     225,848
 70-74       59,319      65,559     124,877      62,169      68,932     131,101      66,671      73,576     140,248      70,569      77,995     148,564      73,901      81,904     155,805
 75-79       41,396      50,049      91,446      42,345      50,628      92,973      43,725      51,919      95,644      45,720      53,870      99,589      47,715      55,704     103,418
 80-84       30,362      42,317      72,680      30,292      41,905      72,198      30,369      41,402      71,770      30,491      41,009      71,500      31,028      41,136      72,163
  85+        27,860      52,576      80,436      28,818      53,495      82,312      29,584      54,379      83,963      30,239      55,045      85,284      31,063      55,701      86,763

 Total     1,911,586   1,950,014   3,861,600   1,927,654   1,965,246   3,892,900   1,946,308   1,983,192   3,929,500   1,967,900   2,004,200   3,972,100   1,991,597   2,027,403   4,019,000
Mdn. Age        37.4        39.6        38.5        37.6        39.8        38.7        37.7        39.9        38.8        37.8        39.9        38.9        37.9        40.0        38.9

                           2016                                2017                                2018                                2019                                2020
  Age          Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total       Male      Female        Total
  0-4       127,655     121,624     249,279     129,519     123,390     252,909     131,392     125,166     256,558     133,237     126,919     260,155     135,051     128,644     263,695
  5- 9      125,693     118,847     244,540     126,317     119,263     245,579     127,228     119,936     247,164     128,764     121,659     250,423     130,940     123,827     254,767
 10-14      124,719     118,619     243,337     126,304     120,172     246,475     128,025     121,625     249,651     128,927     121,959     250,886     129,627     122,368     251,995
 15-19      126,974     121,706     248,680     127,059     121,347     248,406     127,315     121,558     248,873     127,709     121,976     249,685     127,539     121,848     249,388
 20-24      136,797     130,797     267,595     135,948     130,414     266,362     135,404     130,368     265,772     135,655     130,879     266,534     136,348     131,723     268,071
 25-29      141,737     139,557     281,294     146,443     144,122     290,565     150,615     147,621     298,236     152,903     149,650     302,553     153,371     149,956     303,327
 30-34      141,744     139,511     281,255     142,318     139,948     282,267     143,210     141,087     284,297     145,748     143,646     289,394     149,205     147,290     296,495
 35-39      136,303     133,756     270,060     139,306     137,255     276,560     141,375     139,615     280,989     143,992     142,179     286,170     145,075     143,159     288,234
 40-44      127,029     123,425     250,454     127,317     124,313     251,629     130,000     126,743     256,742     132,004     129,286     261,290     135,278     132,833     268,111
 45-49      129,832     126,224     256,056     131,946     127,720     259,666     132,666     128,661     261,327     131,997     127,831     259,828     130,499     126,231     256,730
 50-54      128,431     130,214     258,646     126,462     127,057     253,519     125,029     124,442     249,471     125,382     123,731     249,113     127,830     125,665     253,495
 55-59      133,455     141,050     274,505     132,800     140,056     272,856     131,864     138,643     270,507     131,624     137,304     268,928     130,135     134,606     264,742
 60-64      131,123     141,488     272,611     132,043     142,640     274,683     132,292     142,492     274,784     131,334     141,671     273,005     131,198     141,566     272,764
 65-69      115,033     124,105     239,138     116,821     126,255     243,076     118,903     129,757     248,661     121,554     133,770     255,324     123,832     136,452     260,284
 70-74       76,374      84,802     161,176      83,552      92,474     176,026      89,022      98,536     187,558      94,018     103,692     197,710      99,628     110,288     209,915
 75-79       49,872      58,158     108,030      52,427      61,306     113,732      56,414      65,608     122,022      59,858      69,678     129,535      62,805      73,249     136,054
 80-84       31,603      41,276      72,879      32,534      41,923      74,457      33,780      43,148      76,927      35,470      44,893      80,363      37,178      46,537      83,715
  85+        31,920      56,544      88,464      32,690      57,242      89,932      33,429      57,832      91,261      34,100      58,302      92,402      35,168      59,149      94,317

 Total     2,016,297   2,051,703   4,068,000   2,041,803   2,076,897   4,118,700   2,067,961   2,102,839   4,170,800   2,094,278   2,129,022   4,223,300   2,120,707   2,155,393   4,276,100
Mdn. Age        38.0        40.1        39.0        38.0        40.1        39.1        38.2        40.2        39.1        38.3        40.2        39.2        38.4        40.3        39.3




                                                                                                122
Table C.3 Population of Oregon: 1980-2020 1

       Population of Oregon: 1990-2020

  Year               Total Change from previous year
 (July 1)      Population          Number           Percent
--------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
  1990        2,860,400                   -                -
  1991        2,928,500             68,100           2.38%
  1992        2,991,800             63,300           2.16%                        Oregon's Population and Annual Percent Change, 1950-2013
  1993        3,060,400             68,600           2.29%
  1994        3,121,300             60,900           1.99%           4,500,000                                                                                  4.0

  1995        3,184,400             63,100           2.02%                                        Annual Percent Change
  1996        3,247,100             62,700           1.97%           4,000,000
                                                                                                                                                                3.0
  1997        3,304,300             57,200           1.76%
  1998        3,352,400             48,100           1.46%
                                                                     3,500,000
  1999        3,393,900             41,500           1.24%                                                                                                      2.0
  2000        3,431,100             37,200           1.10%




                                                                                                                                                                       Percent Change
                                                               Population

                                                                     3,000,000
  2001        3,470,400             39,300           1.15%
  2002        3,502,600             32,200           0.93%                                                                                                      1.0

  2003        3,538,600             36,000           1.03%           2,500,000
  2004        3,578,900             40,300           1.14%
                                                                                                                                                                0.0
  2005        3,626,900             48,000           1.34%           2,000,000
  2006        3,685,200             58,300           1.61%
  2007        3,739,400             54,200           1.47%                                     Total Population                                                 -1.0
  2008        3,784,200             44,800           1.20%           1,500,000

  2009        3,815,800             31,600           0.84%                                                                                     Forecast
  2010        3,837,300             21,500           0.56%           1,000,000                                                                                  -2.0
  2011        3,861,600             24,300           0.63%                   1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
  2012        3,892,900             31,300           0.81%                                                            Year
  2013        3,929,500             36,600           0.94%
  2014        3,972,100             42,600           1.08%
  2015        4,019,000             46,901           1.18%
  2016        4,068,000             49,000           1.22%
  2017        4,118,700             50,700           1.25%
  2018        4,170,800             52,101           1.26%
  2019        4,223,300             52,500           1.26%
  2020        4,276,100             52,800           1.25%


 Table C.4 Children: Ages 0-4 1                                                  Table C.5 School Age Population:                    Table C.6 Young Adult Population:
                                                                                 Ages 5-17 1                                         Ages 18-24 1
                             Children: Ages 0-4                                     School Age Population: Ages 5-17                    Young Adult Population: Ages 18-24

  Year                               % Change from previous decade/yr.                           % Change from previous decade/yr.                    % Change from previous decade/yr.
 (July 1)      Population          Number           Percent       Population          Number           Percent       Population          Number           Percent
--------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
  1980          199,525                 ---              ---       524,446                 ---              ---       329,407                 ---              ---
  1990          209,638             10,113           5.07%         532,727              8,281           1.58%         268,134           -61,273          -18.60%
  2000          223,207             13,569           6.47%         624,316             91,589          17.19%         330,328            62,194           23.20%
  2001           224,645             1,438           0.64%          624,675               358           0.06%          336,660             6,333           1.92%
  2002           225,084               439           0.20%          624,611               -64          -0.01%          340,778             4,118           1.22%
  2003           226,652             1,568           0.70%          624,349              -262          -0.04%          345,266             4,487           1.32%
  2004           228,353             1,701           0.75%          625,461             1,112           0.18%          349,138             3,873           1.12%
  2005           230,008             1,655           0.72%          628,326             2,865           0.46%          351,076             1,938           0.55%
  2006           231,882             1,874           0.81%          633,646             5,320           0.85%          354,328             3,252           0.93%
  2007           236,160             4,278           1.85%          635,720             2,074           0.33%          356,311             1,983           0.56%
  2008           239,340             3,180           1.35%          635,372              -348          -0.05%          358,967             2,656           0.75%
  2009           239,929               589           0.25%          633,575            -1,797          -0.28%          360,134             1,166           0.32%
  2010           238,457            -1,472          -0.61%          630,741            -2,835          -0.45%          359,764              -370          -0.10%
  2011           237,398            -1,060          -0.44%          628,849            -1,892          -0.30%          361,471             1,708           0.47%
  2012           237,299               -98          -0.04%          629,662               813           0.13%          363,944             2,473           0.68%
  2013           237,975               675           0.28%          631,386             1,724           0.27%          367,083             3,139           0.86%
  2014           240,624             2,649           1.11%          633,197             1,811           0.29%          369,067             1,983           0.54%
  2015           244,591             3,967           1.65%          634,714             1,517           0.24%          369,352               285           0.08%
  2016           249,279             4,689           1.92%          637,008             2,294           0.36%          367,144            -2,208          -0.60%
  2017           252,909             3,630           1.46%          640,699             3,692           0.58%          366,123            -1,021          -0.28%
  2018           256,558             3,649           1.44%          644,333             3,634           0.57%          367,127             1,004           0.27%
  2019           260,155             3,597           1.40%          649,272             4,939           0.77%          368,257             1,130           0.31%
  2020           263,695             3,540           1.36%          655,820             6,548           1.01%          368,402               145           0.04%




                                                                                            123
 Table C.7 Criminally At Risk Population:                          Table C.8 Prime Wage Earners:                      Table C.9 Older Wage Earners:
 Males Ages 15-39 1                                                Ages 25-44 1                                       Ages 45-64 1

                Criminally "At Risk" Population:                     Prime Wage Earners: Ages 25-44                     Older Wage Earners: Ages 45-64
                       Males Ages 15-39
  Year                         % Change from previous decade/yr.                  % Change from previous decade/yr.                 % Change from previous decade/yr.
 (July 1)      Population          Number           Percent       Population         Number            Percent       Population         Number            Percent
--------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
  1980          561,931                 ---              ---       790,750                 ---              ---       491,249                 ---              ---
  1990          544,738            -17,193          -3.06%         926,326           135,576           17.15%         531,181            39,932            8.13%
  2000          616,988             72,250          13.26%         996,500            70,174            7.58%         817,510           286,329           53.90%
  2001           618,906             1,918           0.31%          994,587            -1,913          -0.19%          847,276           29,766            3.64%
  2002           620,252             1,347           0.22%          989,996            -4,591          -0.46%          876,242           28,966            3.42%
  2003           622,211             1,959           0.32%          987,755            -2,241          -0.23%          903,499           27,257            3.11%
  2004           626,423             4,212           0.68%          988,932             1,177           0.12%          930,032           26,533            2.94%
  2005           633,901             7,478           1.19%          994,575             5,644           0.57%          957,826           27,793            2.99%
  2006           644,210            10,309           1.63%        1,004,110             9,535           0.96%          985,638           27,813            2.90%
  2007           652,287             8,077           1.25%        1,014,565            10,455           1.04%        1,008,986           23,348            2.37%
  2008           657,248             4,961           0.76%        1,022,060             7,495           0.74%        1,025,501           16,515            1.64%
  2009           657,327                79           0.01%        1,024,971             2,911           0.28%        1,039,689           14,188            1.38%
  2010           653,491            -3,836          -0.58%        1,026,126             1,155           0.11%        1,050,150           10,461            1.01%
  2011           653,129              -362          -0.06%        1,031,271             5,145           0.50%        1,058,029             7,879           0.75%
  2012           655,669             2,540           0.39%        1,038,274             7,003           0.68%        1,054,572            -3,457          -0.33%
  2013           660,884             5,215           0.80%        1,047,246             8,971           0.86%        1,051,795            -2,777          -0.26%
  2014           668,065             7,181           1.09%        1,057,706            10,460           1.00%        1,053,621             1,826           0.17%
  2015           675,690             7,625           1.14%        1,068,722            11,016           1.04%        1,057,624             4,002           0.38%
  2016           683,556             7,866           1.16%        1,083,063            14,341           1.34%        1,061,818             4,194           0.40%
  2017           691,074             7,518           1.10%        1,101,021            17,958           1.66%        1,060,723            -1,094          -0.10%
  2018           697,917             6,844           0.99%        1,120,264            19,243           1.75%        1,056,089            -4,634          -0.44%
  2019           706,007             8,090           1.16%        1,139,407            19,143           1.71%        1,050,874            -5,215          -0.49%
  2020           711,539             5,532           0.78%        1,156,168            16,761           1.47%        1,047,731            -3,143          -0.30%


Table C.10 Elderly Population by Age Group 1
                                                             Elderly Population by Age Group

                            %Change from                      %Change from                      %Change from                      %Change from
   Year                           previous                          previous                          previous                          previous
 (July 1)       Ages 65+        decade/yr.      Ages 65-74        decade/yr.      Ages 75-84        decade/yr.        Ages 85+        decade/yr.
--------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ---------------- ----------------
  1980          305,841                 ---       185,863                 ---         91,137                ---         28,841                ---
  1990          392,369            28.29%         224,772            20.93%         128,813            41.34%           38,784           34.48%
  2000          439,239            11.95%         218,997            -2.57%         162,187            25.91%           58,055           49.69%
  2001          442,558             0.76%         218,838            -0.07%         163,878             1.04%           59,843            3.08%
  2002          445,890             0.75%         219,614             0.35%         165,109             0.75%           61,167            2.21%
  2003          451,080             1.16%         222,361             1.25%         165,669             0.34%           63,050            3.08%
  2004          456,984             1.31%         226,373             1.80%         165,842             0.10%           64,769            2.73%
  2005          465,089             1.77%         231,926             2.45%         166,077             0.14%           67,087            3.58%
  2006          475,596             2.26%         239,931             3.45%         165,787            -0.17%           69,877            4.16%
  2007          487,657             2.54%         250,131             4.25%         165,148            -0.39%           72,379            3.58%
  2008          502,959             3.14%         264,201             5.63%         164,354            -0.48%           74,403            2.80%
  2009          517,502             2.89%         277,606             5.07%         163,513            -0.51%           76,383            2.66%
  2010          532,062             2.81%         289,645             4.34%         164,159             0.40%           78,258            2.45%
  2011          544,581             2.35%         300,020             3.58%         164,125            -0.02%           80,436            2.78%
  2012          569,148             4.51%         321,665             7.21%         165,170             0.64%           82,312            2.33%
  2013          594,015             4.37%         342,638             6.52%         167,414             1.36%           83,963            2.01%
  2014          617,885             4.02%         361,511             5.51%         171,090             2.20%           85,284            1.57%
  2015          643,998             4.23%         381,653             5.57%         175,582             2.63%           86,763            1.73%
  2016          669,687             3.99%         400,314             4.89%         180,909             3.03%           88,464            1.96%
  2017          697,223             4.11%         419,102             4.69%         188,190             4.02%           89,932            1.66%
  2018          726,429             4.19%         436,219             4.08%         198,949             5.72%           91,261            1.48%
  2019          755,335             3.98%         453,034             3.85%         209,899             5.50%           92,402            1.25%
  2020          784,285             3.83%         470,199             3.79%         219,769             4.70%           94,317            2.07%




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