guinn

							                                      GCCE PROJECT PROPOSAL
                                             Jeremy Guinn
Statement of Objective:
To examine Phenology and Snow Depth effects on (1) breeding bird populations (2) wintering bird
populations using long-term large databases (Breeding Bird Survey & Christmas Bird Count).

Approach/Methodology:
   1. Download long-term BBS data for North Dakota (and entire Northern Plains); Download
      phenology data for North Dakota (and entire Northern Plains)—examine correlation between
      phenology metrics and bird populations
          a. One Undergraduate Researcher will assist in downloading data and developing graphs of
             populations trends
          b. Include daily temperature data to examine the impact of late freezes on BBS outcomes
   2. Download long-term CBC data for mountain states; Download SNODAS data for mountain
      states—examine correlation between snow depth and wintering bird populations
          a. Undergraduate Researcher will assist in downloading data and developing graphs of
             populations trends.

Significance-Context:
    1. Determining if there is a trend between phenology metrics and breeding bird populations
             a. Use this trend to make predictions based on the IPCC predictions of what will occur in
                 ND (and entire Northern Plains)
    2. Determining if there is a trend between snow depth and winter bird populations
             a. Use this trend to make predications based on the IPCC predictions of what will occur in
                 region.
This information could have far-reaching significance to a broad group of scientists, managers, and the
public, while also providing research experiences for an undergraduate student and improving the
science curriculum in several courses by incorporating research applications, climate change education,
and remote sensing technology.

Deliverables-Impact:
    1. Course Modules—
           a. General courses—query and download CBC & BBS data and create graphs
                    i. Provides experience creating scientific figures for publications using real-world
                       data.
                   ii. Provides
           b. Advanced courses—search and download Phenology and SNODAS data
                    i. Provides experience with Remote Sensing products and technology
                   ii. Reinforces research applications of software
    2. Presentations at local (ND Chapter of The Wildlife Society) and national conferences (Raptor
        Research Foundation; American Ornithologist’s Union) by student and researcher.
Budget:
          $1,000 Undergraduate Researcher
          $1,000 Travel Expenses for dissemination of results

Timeline:
       October 2011—download data and begin analysis
       November 2011—complete analysis
       TARGET: December 1, 2011—Abstracts are due for several meetings.
       December 2011—develop poster/presentation for February conference
       February 2012—present results
       March 2012—use suggestions from meetings to improve analysis/conclusions, begin writing
       article for submission
       May 2012—submit article for publication
       Deadline for Projects—May 2013

Necessary Resources (Datasets):
       Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Count, USGS Phenology Products, SNODAS Data

Communication Plan—Dissemination—Preferred Outcome—Talk with your Tribal Leaders—local
groups
       1. Participate in the USGS North American Bird Phenology Program-
          http://www.pwrc.usgs.gov/bpp/
       2. Present at conferences (above)
       3. Submit article(s) for publication in appropriate scientific journal.
       4. Charts will be included in a larger publication on predatory birds in North Dakota

SHRIKES CONTINUED—
To improve Shrike study by trying to detect effect of late freeze/storms on incorporating annual
temperature and precipitation data with Phenology study. Bring in temperature & precipitation annual
graphs to examine if there was an early green-up but a May freeze—what happens to birds. Model
shrike trends in response to phenology in order to make predictions based on IPCC report for our region
(4-degree temp increase, etc.)—Get publication submitted.

URINE PROJECT CONTINUED—
Continue line of investigation by doing the basic experiments necessary to examine the potential of the
ASD FieldSpec 3 and/or ASD Handheld Spectrometer to detect urine in the UV-range.
PHENOLOGY PRODUCTS— www.phenology.cr.usgs.gov
Acronym Phenological Interpretation                     Description

SOST         Beginning of measurable                    Day of year identified as having a consistent
             photosynthesis in the vegetation           upward trend in time series NDVI
             canopy

SOSN         Level of photosynthetic activity at the    NDVI value (or baseline) identified at the day of year
             beginning of measurable photosynthesis     identified as a consistent upward trend in time series
                                                        NDVI

EOST         End of measurable photosynthesis in        Day of year identified at the end of a consistent
             the vegetation canopy                      downward trend in time series NDVI

EOSN         Level of photosynthetic activity at the    NDVI value corresponding with the day of year
             end of measurable photosynthesis           identified at the end of a consistent downward trend in
                                                        time series NDVI

MAXT         Time of maximum photosynthesis in the      Day of year corresponding to the maximum NDVI in an
             canopy                                     annual time series

MAXN         Maximum level of photosynthetic            Maximum NDVI in an annual time series
             activity in the canopy

DUR          Length of photosynthetic activity (the     Number of days from the SOST to the EOST
             growing season)

AMP          Maximum increase in canopy                 Difference between MAXN and SOSN
             photosynthetic activity above the
             baseline

TIN          Canopy photosynthetic activity             Daily (interpolated) integration of NDVI above
             across the entire growing season           the baseline for the entire duration of the
                                                        growing season




SNODAS DATA— http://nsidc.org/data/g02158.html
Data only from 2003-2011
National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center. 2004. Snow Data Assimilation System
(SNODAS) Data Products at NSIDC. Boulder, Colorado USA: National Snow and Ice Data Center. Digital
media.
       The data are available through the FTP site as daily tar files with the following naming convention and as
       described in Table 2:
          SNODAS_YYYYMMDD.tar
       Table 2. FTP Daily Tar File Variables

Variable                  Description

SNODAS     Identifies this as SNODAS data

YYYY       4-digit year

MM         2-digit month

DD         2-digit day of month

.tar       Identifies that this file has been tarred
Breeding Bird Survey Data – http://137.227.245.162/BBS/

Christmas Bird Count – http://web4.audubon.org/bird/cbc/hr/