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PPT - US Climate Change Science Program.ppt

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					Regional Air Quality Management in
   Response to Global Change
   Tools for Supporting Decision-Makers

                    Dan Loughlin (ORD)
                    Bryan Hubbell (OAR)
                  Darryl Weatherhead (OAR)
              U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

                         Gary Kleiman
                           NESCAUM

  CCSP Workshop: Climate Science in Support of Decision Making
             Arlington, VA, November 14-16, 2005
        EPA-ORD Program Objectives
EPA’s Role in the Climate Change Science Program:

1. Assess the impacts of global change on air quality
2. Develop tools to assist EPA, regional, state, and
   local decision-makers in developing cost-effective,
   robust adaptation strategies
•   Focus on Year 2050
•   Consider factors such as:
       Population growth and redistribution
       Economic growth
       Land use change
       Resource constraints
       Technology and fuel use changes
       Climate changes (temperature, precipitation, solar isolation)
       Current and expected national, regional, and state actions
Scenario
Assumptions
                                            Modeling Process
Population & Economic Growth
Future Technology Characteristics
Climate Change
Resources Constraints
Energy/Environmental Policies                                 $
                                                           Economy
                                                                         Land Use
                                       Technology




                                                           Emissions




                                    Regional Meteorology


                                                           Air Quality
              Global Meteorology

                                                                         Health &
                                                                         Ecosystem
                                                                         Benefits & Costs
                                                            Impacts
Scenario
Assumptions
                                            Modeling Process
Population & Economic Growth
Future Technology Characteristics
Climate Change
Resources Constraints
Energy/Environmental Policies                                 $
                                                           Economy
                                                                         Land Use
                                       Technology
            What kind of
            adaptation
            actions can be
            taken here…
                                                           Emissions
                                                                         … to ensure
                                                                         environmental
                                                                         quality and
                                    Regional Meteorology
                                                                         protect human
                                                                         health into the
                                                           Air Quality   future?
              Global Meteorology

                                                                         Health &
                                                                         Ecosystem
                                                                         Benefits & Costs
                                                            Impacts
Why Energy and Air Quality?

                  Today’s Energy System
                                                        Air Pollution

                   Oil
                                                        Contribution to
    Oil         Refining
                                          Automobiles   anthropogenic
                                                        emissions:
Natural Gas
                                                        NOx ~ 95%
                                          Residential   SOx ~ 89%
                                                        CO ~ 95%
 Uranium
                                                        NH4 ~ 62%
              Electricity Generation                    Hg ~ 87%
                                          Commercial
  Coal                                                  Air Quality Concerns:
                                                        Ozone
                                           Industry     PM2.5
                           Renewables      Industry     Acid deposition
                                                        Toxics
 Why Energy and Air Quality?

Tomorrow’s Energy Demands with Today’s Technologies
                                                       Air Pollution
                    Oil
                                                       Demands:
   Oil           Refining
                                         Automobiles                 +
                                                       Emissions:

Natural Gas                                            NOx
                                         Residential   SOx
                                                       CO
                                                       NH4
                                                              +
 Uranium      Electricity Generation                   Hg
                                         Commercial
                                                       Temperature:    +
  Coal                                     Industry
                                                       Air Quality
                          Renewables
                                          Industry
               Why Energy and Air Quality?

          Tomorrow’s Energy Demands with New Technologies
                                                                                  Air Pollution
                                        Oil
                                Refining & Processing
                                                                    Automobiles
                                                                                  Demands:      +
Fossil Fuels                                                                      Emissions:

                Gasification   Combustion                                         NOx
  Biomass                                           H2 Generation   Residential   SOx
                                                                                  CO
                                                                                  NH4
                                                                                        +/-?
               Uranium                                                            Hg
                               Nuclear Power

                                                                    Commercial    Temperature:      +
                                                    Carbon
                                                 Sequestration        Industry
               Renewable                                                          Air Quality   ?
               Resources        Clean Energy
                                                                     Industry

Regional planning decisions can influence the energy system and therefore impact air quality…
   Adaptation in Regional Context
User:
  State or regional air quality planner
Goal:
  Evaluate actions for maintaining or improving ambient air
  quality under various global change scenarios
Options:
  Smart growth programs
  Renewable energy subsidies
  Light duty vehicle feebates
  Heavy duty vehicle and fleet programs
  Energy efficiency programs

Example: Northeast States for Coordinated Air Use Management
             (NESCAUM)
    A Regional Energy/Emissions Model

  Pilot Study:
  6-state New England region

  Collaboration with
   NESCAUM




EPA has funded tool development
                                                                 Emissions: Total and by Sector


                  Pilot Study




                                          Emissions (thousand tons)
                                                                      20,000                       Total

                                                                      15,000

                                                                                             Transportation
                                                                      10,000


NESCAUM’s Energy/Emissions Model:                                      5,000    Industrial
                                                                                                       Electricity



NE-MARKAL
                                                                                                         Other
                                                                         0
                                                                                2000     2010     2020      2030
                                                                                        Year

                                                                        Technologies Penetrations

                                                                      20,000




                                        Capacity (billion VMT)
                                                                                   Gasoline ICE

                                                                      15,000


                                                                      10,000                       Gasoline-
                                                                                                   Electric
                                                                       5,000                       Hybrid
                                                                                 Diesel ICE

                                                                         0
                                                                                2000    2010      2020      2030
                                                                                        Year

                                                                         System-Wide Fuel Inputs

                                                                      40,000     Crude Oil


                                                                      30,000                    Coal




                                    Usage (PJ)
                                                                                  NGA
                                                                      20,000


                                                                       10,000
                                                                                Petroleum
                                                                                                 Renewables
                                                                         0
                                                                                2000     2010     2020      2030
                                                                                        Year
    Example NE-MARKAL Application
             by NESCAUM
                                 Residential
                   Commercial
                                    6%
                      3%                                    Current New England
            Industry                                          NOx Emissions
               5%


           Power
            8%
                                               Light-Duty
                                                Vehicles
                                                  41%



                               Other
                           Transportation
                                37%

Light duty vehicles
contribute 41% of
man-made NOx emissions
                    Example NE-MARKAL Application by
                               NESCAUM
  Projections of Light Duty NOx Emissions
                        1.6                                                  Light duty emissions are
NOx (indexed to 2005)




                        1.4                                                  expected to decline
                        1.2
                        1.0
                                                                             based on technological
                        0.8                                                  progress
                        0.6
                        0.4
                        0.2                                                  How can a feebate
                                                                             encourage further
                        0.0
                              2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029

                                Conventional Technology      Projected
                                                                             reductions?
                                Technological Potential




                                          Illustrative Results… Please do not cite.
                Example Application
 Feebate: A revenue-neutral policy in which rebates are given on fuel-
 efficient car purchases and fees are charged on non-fuel efficient
 vehicles

Example:
Vehicle Type             MPG    Fee/Rebate
Large SUV                13     ($3,290)      A feebate is modeled…
Large 2WD Pickup         18     ($1,150)
Mid-size Family Sedan    24     $ 140
Car-Based Hybrid SUV     31     $1,180
Compact Sedan            33     $1,370
Compact Hybrid           47     $2,280




                 Illustrative Results… Please do not cite.
                                          Example Application

         Projections of Light Duty NOx Emissions
                        1.6
NOx (indexed to 2005)




                        1.4
                        1.2
                        1.0
                        0.8
                        0.6
                        0.4
                        0.2
                        0.0
                              2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029   Additional improvements
                                 Conventional Technology
                                 Technological Potential
                                                              Projected
                                                              Feebate
                                                                             due to increased
                                                                             penetration of hybrids and
                                                                             advanced gasoline-ICEs
                                                                             technologies.
                                          Illustrative Results… Please do not cite.
       Tool Development Criteria

Operational on desktop computer
User-friendly
  By decision-maker or analyst
Design:
  Leverage existing EPA (ORD &OAR) and public
  domain tools
     MIMS – Multimedia Integrated Modeling System
     RSM – Response Surface Model
     VPA – Visual Policy Analyzer
     BenMAP – Benefits analysis and mapping program
     MARKAL – MARKet ALocation energy system model
       Tool Components
        Graphical User Interface
                          MIMS

         Scenario                       Energy
         Options                        Model


User
                                       Air Quality
                                         Model


          Output            Report     Benefits
          Reports
                           Generator    Model
Prototype Decision Support Tool
Viewers for Model Outputs: Tables
Viewers for Model Outputs: RSM
                                 Parametric Sensitivity Analysis
                                 Understand model responses to stimuli

                                 35%
H2 FCV Penetration in 2030 (%)




                                 30%

                                 25%                                                         Gasoline & diesel cost
                                                          H2-FCV cost
                                 20%
                                             Hybrid
                                             Efficiency            Hybrid cost
                                 15%

                                       Cost of
                                 10%
                                       H2 fuel

                                 5%

                                 0%
                                   -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
                                                             % Change from Reference Value
Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis
     Monte Carlo Simulation
    Characterize uncertainty in
      model results
    Identify key relationships
      among inputs and outputs



inputs                            outputs



               MARKAL



                Iterate
Global Sensitivity Analysis
 0.15   -0.39   0.20    0.01   -0.05




 0.00   0.04    -0.88   0.09   -0.10




 0.06   -0.15   -0.77   0.08   -0.11
Ongoing and Future Activities

• Tailor for NESCAUM use
    Integrate NE-MARKAL and BenMAP
    Improve graphical user interface to facilitate policy
     analyses of interest to regional decision-makers
• Work with NESCAUM to test and evaluate the
  design
• Learn from experience and work with NESCAUM
  and other regions to develop/apply next generation
  decision support tools.

				
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