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Analysis of Mitigation Strategies in China's Electricity Sector

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					Analysis of CO2 Abatement Strategies in
        China’s Electricity Sector

              Hu Junfeng (胡军峰)
       North China Electric Power University
                    July, 2010
Outline

1.   Background
2.   Research Objectives
3.   Main Partners
4.   Analysis Framework
5.   Completed Research
6.   Ongoing Research
7.   Future Research
1. Background

 Globally, CO2 emissions were 29.2 billion tons
  in 2006 (EIA).
 Global CO2 emissions need to be reduced to
  10 billion tons per year by 2050 to mitigate
  climate change.
 China’s share of global CO2 emissions has
  rapidly increased, from 8% in 1980 to 21% in
  2006; China has replaced the United States as
  the world’s largest CO2 emitter.
1. Background

 The Chinese government set an objective to
  reduce the CO2 intensity of GDP per capita by
  40-45% over 2005 levels by 2020.
 The electricity sector is China’s largest CO2
  emitter (40% of gross CO2 emissions), and
  should be specially regulated.
 Reduction of CO2 emissions in the electricity
  sector should include both the demand and
  the supply side.
1. Background
   Supply-side Mitigation Measures
     Increase the share of non-fossil energy
     Increase the efficiency of fossil fuel generation
     Capture and sequester carbon from fossil fuel
      generation
     Reduce transmission losses
   Demand-side Mitigation Measures
     Increase demand-side efficiency (e.g., efficiency power
      plants)
     Adjust industry structure (e.g., through differential
      pricing)
     Develop distributed generation (e.g., PV and CHP)
2. Research Objectives

   What policy portfolios can best reduce CO2
    intensity in the electricity sector?
   How much could electricity sector CO2 emissions
    be reduced by 2020?
   How much should the electricity industry, and
    society, pay to reduce CO2 emissions intensity by
    2020?
   What could electricity sector CO2 reductions
    contribute to the national CO2 intensity goal?
3. Main Partners
   Government
     State Electricity Regulatory Commission (SERC)
     Climate Change Department, NDRC
     State Administration of Taxation
     Ministry of Finance
     Ministry of Industry and Information Technology

   International Organizations
     Regulatory Assistance Project (RAP)
     World Bank

   Energy and Environmental Economics (E3)
    4. Analysis Framework

Non-fossil fuel generation




                                                                          Macroeconomy
                                                              Demand
                       Transmission         Distribution

   Fossil fuel
   generation




  CO2 emissions


                             Electricity sector CO2 mitigation policies

Economy-wide CO2 emissions
5. Completed Research
   A Comparison of Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions
    between China and the U.S. (2008)
   Benefit-Cost Analysis of Differential Pricing Policy
    (2008)
   Benefit-Cost Analysis of “Closing Small Power
    Plants” Policy (2009)
   Development of Wind Power in China (2009)
   Electricity Sector Supply Planning during the 12th
    Five-Year Plan (2010)
   Generation Costs in Electricity Sector (2010)
   Adjustments to the Electricity Sector’s
    Accounting System (2010)
6. Ongoing Research

 Relationship between electricity sector CO2
  intensity and cost
 Macroeconomic impacts of CO2 emission
  reduction policies in the electricity sector
 Scenarios for electric vehicle development

 Models for electrical vehicle charging stations

 Allocation scenarios for a carbon tax in China
7. Future Research
   LCA for different generating technologies
   Renewable energy integration, including required
    reserve margins
   Regional transmission system integration
   Models for transmission-distribution unbundling
   Smart grid economics
   System design for a carbon tax
   System design for carbon cap and trade
   Electric vehicle integration
   Intelligent transportation
      谢谢!Thank you!

     Comments Welcome

        Hu Junfeng (胡军峰)
North China Electric Power University
         hu-junfeng@sohu.com

				
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