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QUANTIFY at CAIR4HEALTH

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					QUANTIFY at CAIR4HEALTH


Robert Sausen

DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre
Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
CAIR4HEALTH meeting of external experts
Brussels, 14 December 2007
                             QUANTIFY
Quantifying the Climate Impact of global and European Transport Systems

Objective:      To quantify the climate impact of the global and
                European transport systems for the present situation and
                for different scenarios of future development.

Co-ordinator:   Sausen, DLR-IPA
Participants:   41 from 19 countries              WWW://ip-quantify.eu
Duration:       March 2005 to February 2010
Funds:           8.4 M€
Total costs     12.8 M€                             QUANTIFY-TTC
Does EU-15 comply with the Kyoto Protocol ?
     Equivalent CO2 emissions relative to 1990




                                       Kyoto target




                                                      14.12.2007
                                       (2012)
                                       EU-15 -8.0%
                    CAIR4HEALTH 2007
EU-15: Absolute equivalent CO2 emissions




                                           14.12.2007
               CAIR4HEALTH 2007
       New EU target and consequences for transport:
                  Reduction by 20 % relative to 1990

                                                      Kyoto target        new target
                                                         -8%                - 20 %




                                                          2012                 2020

transport fractions (1990, 2005, 2012, 2020):
national transport: 16.4 %          21.0 %                24.6 %              31.1 %
aviation bunkers: 1.4 %              2.9 %                 3.8 %               5.3 %
marine bunkers:      2.5 %           3.7 %                 4.6 %               6.1 %
                                     linear growth of transport emissions after 2005




                                                                                       14.12.2007
                                   CAIR4HEALTH 2007
Emissions from different modes of transport in 2000




                                                               Eyring et al., 2005
13.8 %        2.7 %
         2.2 %        Contribution of transport to the total




                                                                                     14.12.2007
                      anthropogenic CO2 emissions


                            CAIR4HEALTH 2007
          Measurement area for Falcon flights
Period: 04 - 22 June 07, Flight hours: 20 (Quantify), 20 (DLR)




            Quantify
            Measur.
            Area




                                                                            14.12.2007
                                                         CAIR4HEALTH 2007
              QUANTIFY Campaign on Ship Emissions
                                  Mission on 11 June 07




CTM forecast of the University of Prague                Falcon transects across the ship
(run with all emissions - run without ship emissions)   corridor at 100 m asl




                                                                                                  14.12.2007
                                                                         (Schlager et al.)

                                                                               CAIR4HEALTH 2007
                       (Schlager et al.)
Two Falcon transects




                                                      14.12.2007
across ship corridor
                                   CAIR4HEALTH 2007
   QUANTIFY Campaign on Ship Emissions
                     Mission on 14 June 2007




EI (NOx):
137 g / kg (AC)
 82 g/ kg (ship 2)




                                                                  14.12.2007
                (Schlager et al.)              CAIR4HEALTH 2007
Updated Aviation Radiative Forcing for 2000




                                                            Sausen et al., 2005
                                                                                  14.12.2007
                                              CAIR4HEALTH 2007
Present day forcings from
transport sectors




 Fuglestvedt et al. 2007




                                         14.12.2007
                      CAIR4HEALTH 2007
Radiative forcing from shipping




                                                                14.12.2007
                                  Lauer et al., 2007
                                             CAIR4HEALTH 2007

				
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