Global Stock Market Review

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					02/04/2012




             Global Stock Market Review
S&P 500 Index
                                                                                                                                                                                  Monday, April 02, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            16:00 GMT



                                                                                                          S&P 500 index retreated and ended higher on Friday as Ben Bernake confirmed
                                                                                                          Fed will continue boosting economy and Europe approved larger firewall. US
                                                                                                          index added 0.37% or 5.19 points and finished at 1,408.47, gaining 12% for the
                                                                                                          quarter. Health sector extended gains with Wellpoint Health advancing 3% and
                                                                                                          Tenet Healthcare gained 2.9%. Energy stocks also posted gains as oil prices
                                                                                                          climbed. Cabot Oil rallied 3% and Nabors Industries soared 1.9%. S&P 500
                                                                                                          experienced its best first quarter since 1998.




                                                                                                          The correlation indicator between S&P 500 index (SPX) and French CAC 40
                                                                                                          index (CAC) remained strong at 0.88 on Friday while its relationship gauge with
                                                                                                          Brent oil (CO) climbed to 0.6. Meanwhile the connection measure with USD/
                                                                                                          JPY currency pair was little changed at 0.64. Steady correlation was also
                                                                                                          observed with NZD/USD currency pair.




                                                                                                                                                                           Performance          %

                                                                                                                                                                     1 day                    0.4%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 week                   0.8%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 month                  3.1%
                                                                                                                                                                     3 months                 12.0%
                                                                                                                                                                     6 months                 24.5%
                                                                                                                                                                     12 months                6.0%

                                                                                                                                                                     YTD                      12.0%



Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880                research@dukascopy.com
Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
                                                                                                                                                                                  Monday, April 02, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            16:00 GMT



                                                                                                          Dow Jones Industrial Average index traded higher on Friday lifted by US
                                                                                                          consumer confidence index which surged to 13-month record high in March.
                                                                                                          Blue chip index climbed 0.5% or 66.22 points and closed at 13,212.04,
                                                                                                          advancing 8.1% on quarterly basis. Three stocks of 20 posted minor losses.
                                                                                                          Pfizer Inc jumped 3.8% after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analyst predicted the
                                                                                                          drug producer may split itself up. Walt Disney posted the biggest gains for the
                                                                                                          Dow, surging 1.8%.




                                                                                                          Dow Jones Industrial Average index (INDU) maintained relatively weak
                                                                                                          correlation at 0.32 with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index (AS5) on Friday. In
                                                                                                          contrast, strong relationship was detected with EUR/JPY currency pair with
                                                                                                          average gauge fluctuating at 0.7. Little changed linkages were observed both
                                                                                                          with copper (CUA) and gold (XAU) as the corresponding coefficients were stead
                                                                                                          at 0.25 and 0.4.




                                                                                                                                                                           Performance          %

                                                                                                                                                                     1 day                    0.5%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 week                   1.0%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 month                  2.0%
                                                                                                                                                                     3 months                 8.1%

                                                                                                                                                                     6 months                 21.1%
                                                                                                                                                                     12 months                7.0%

                                                                                                                                                                     YTD                      8.1%



Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880                research@dukascopy.com
Hang Seng Index
                                                                                                                                                                                  Monday, April 02, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            16:00 GMT



                                                                                                          Hong Kong's Hang Seng index extended losses on Monday giving up 0.16% or
                                                                                                          33.2 points to 20,522.26. The index still was negatively affected by property
                                                                                                          shares as the arrests of two Sun Hung Kai Properties executives on Friday put
                                                                                                          downward pressure on the whole index. The company fell 3% on Monday
                                                                                                          trade. New World Development Co shed 3.8%. Meanwhile Aluminum Corp. of
                                                                                                          China slipped 2.1%. On the upside on of leading exporters Esprit Holdings
                                                                                                          rallied 4.5%.




                                                                                                          The link measure between Hang Seng index (HSI) and US Nasdaq Composite
                                                                                                          index (CCMP) declined rapidly from 0.54 to 0.35. Meanwhile Hong Kong
                                                                                                          benchmark’s relationship with Shanghai Composite index (SHCOMP) slightly
                                                                                                          faded to 0.53. Insignificant correlations were detected both with gold (XAU)
                                                                                                          and AUD/USD currency pair.




                                                                                                                                                                           Performance          %

                                                                                                                                                                     1 day                    -0.2%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 week                   -0.7%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 month                  -4.8%
                                                                                                                                                                     3 months                 8.7%
                                                                                                                                                                     6 months                 22.0%
                                                                                                                                                                     12 months               -15.0%

                                                                                                                                                                     YTD                      8.7%



Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880                research@dukascopy.com
Nikkei 225 Index
                                                                                                                                                                                  Monday, April 02, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            16:00 GMT



                                                                                                          Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average finished higher on Monday though gains were
                                                                                                          limited as data showed Japanese producer sentiment stayed steady in March
                                                                                                          at minus 4. Nikkei 225 index added 0.26% or 26.31 points and closed at
                                                                                                          10,109.87. On the upside Japanese benchmark was supported by car makers as
                                                                                                          Honda Motor climbed 2%, Mazda Motor added 0.7% and Suzuki Motor gained
                                                                                                          2.4%. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group rallied 3.4% on news Japan’s larger
                                                                                                          lender, is considering a buying of U.S. regional bank.




                                                                                                          The correlation between Nikkei 225 Index (NKY) and Shanghai Composite index
                                                                                                          (SHCOMP) fell into insignificant area on Monday, dropping to 0.23. Weak
                                                                                                          relationship was also observed with natural gas commodity (NGA). Nikkei 225
                                                                                                          faced significant but fading link with copper (CUA) at 0.44. Meanwhile
                                                                                                          Japanese benchmark’s connection with EUR/JPY weakened from 0.37 to 0.3.




                                                                                                                                                                           Performance          %

                                                                                                                                                                     1 days                   0.2%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 week                   0.9%
                                                                                                                                                                     1 month                  3.4%
                                                                                                                                                                     3 months                 18.1%
                                                                                                                                                                     6 months                 18.3%
                                                                                                                                                                     12 months                4.0%

                                                                                                                                                                     YTD                      18.1%



Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880                research@dukascopy.com
FTSE 100 Index
                                                                                                                                                                                  Monday, April 02, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            16:00 GMT



                                                                                                          FTSE 100 faced a choppy session on Monday despite better than expected PMI
                                                                                                          data. Banks put negative pressure on the index after Financial Times reported
                                                                                                          several leading European lenders prepare to return the money borrowed via
                                                                                                          the ECB long-term refinancing operation. Barclays PLC lost 2.1%, Lloyds
                                                                                                          Banking Group PLC fell 2.2% while HSBC Holdings PLC slipped 1.3%. On the
                                                                                                          upside drug maker GlaxoSmithKline PLC rose 0.9% after its HIV-1 drug research
                                                                                                          met its main endpoint. At the moment of writing FTSE 100 trades 0.62% or
                                                                                                          35.91 points higher at 5,777.97.



                                                                                                          UK FTSE 100 index (UKX) was uncorrelated with its Australian peer S&P/ASX
                                                                                                          200 index (AS5) on Monday whereas its relationship measure with gold (XAU)
                                                                                                          dropped from 0.54 to 0.37. The correlation between British index and Brent oil
                                                                                                          (CO) also slightly faded from 0.77 to 0.73, though the link still can be
                                                                                                          considered as relatively strong. There was not detected a significant linkage
                                                                                                          gauge with EUR/GBP currency pair.




                                                                                                                                                                           Performance          %

                                                                                                                                                                     1 day                    0.6%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 week                   -2.3%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 month                  -2.5%
                                                                                                                                                                     3 months                 1.1%
                                                                                                                                                                     6 months                 13.6%
                                                                                                                                                                     12 months                -4.2%

                                                                                                                                                                     YTD                      1.1%



Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880                research@dukascopy.com
DAX 30 Index
                                                                                                                                                                                  Monday, April 02, 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                            16:00 GMT



                                                                                                          German DAX index fluctuated between gains and losses on Monday lifted by
                                                                                                          technology and health care shares. Deutsche Post AG advanced 1.0% after
                                                                                                          Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from hold to buy. BMW AG jumped 1.7%
                                                                                                          after Barclays Capital confirmed car maker’s overweight rating. At the moment
                                                                                                          of writing DAX 30 index trades 1.02% or 69.92 points up at 6,945.07. Banks
                                                                                                          weighed on index with Deutsche Bank dropping 1.7% and Commerzbank
                                                                                                          declining 1.3%.




                                                                                                          The correlation between German DAX index and Russell 3000 index (RAY)
                                                                                                          slightly diminished from 0.83 to 0.72 on Monday while the relationship
                                                                                                          indicator with silver (XAG) dropped sharply from 0.5 to 0.3. Weakening
                                                                                                          connections also were observed both with EUR/USD and EUR/CHF currency
                                                                                                          pairs as the relevant coefficients declined to 0.22 and 0.16.




                                                                                                                                                                           Performance          %

                                                                                                                                                                     1 day                    1.0%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 week                   -1.9%

                                                                                                                                                                     1 month                  0.3%
                                                                                                                                                                     3 months                 14.3%
                                                                                                                                                                     6 months                 29.2%
                                                                                                                                                                     12 months                -3.2%

                                                                                                                                                                     YTD                      14.3%



Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880                research@dukascopy.com
20-day weighted correlation matrix




   SPX - S&P 500, INDU - Dow Jones Industrial Average, RAY - Russell 3000, CCMP - Nasdaq Composite, DAX - German DAX 30, UKX - UK FTSE 100, SXXP - Stoxx Europe 600, CAC -
   French CAC 40, SMI - Swiss Market Index, FTSEMIB - Italian FTSEMIB, HSI - Hang Seng, NKY - Nikkei 225, SHCOMP - Shanghai Composite, KOSPI - South Korea’s Kospi, AS51 - Aus-
   tralia’s AS&P/ASX 200, IBOV - Brazil BOVESPA, MEXBOL - Mexico IPC, XAU - gold, XAG - silver, CO - Brent oil


Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880   research@dukascopy.com
1-year correlation matrix




   SPX - S&P 500, INDU - Dow Jones Industrial Average, RAY - Russell 3000, CCMP - Nasdaq Composite, DAX - German DAX 30, UKX - UK FTSE 100, SXXP - Stoxx Europe 600, CAC -
   French CAC 40, SMI - Swiss Market Index, FTSEMIB - Italian FTSEMIB, HSI - Hang Seng, NKY - Nikkei 225, SHCOMP - Shanghai Composite, KOSPI - South Korea’s Kospi, AS51 - Aus-
   tralia’s AS&P/ASX 200, IBOV - Brazil BOVESPA, MEXBOL - Mexico IPC, XAU - gold, XAG - silver, CO - Brent oil


Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880   research@dukascopy.com
EXPLANATIONS
 Indexes

     Standart & Poors 500 Index (S&P 500) or (SPX) - U.S. stock market index consisting of the 500 large-cap shares widely traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the
      NASDAQ.

     Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (INDU) - U.S. stock market index consisting of the 30 large publicly owned U.S. companies , primarily industrials

     Hang Seng Index (HI) - Hong Kong’s stock market index consisting of 48 largest companies listed on the Hong Kong Exchange

     Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei 225 Index) or (NKY) - Japanese stock market index consisting of the 225 largest companies listed on Tokyo Stock Exchange

     FTSE 100 Index (UKX) - U.K. stock market index consisting of the 100 most capitalized U.K. companies trading on the London Stock Exchange

     DAX Index (DAX) - German stock market index consisting of the 30 largest and most liquid German companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange

 Chart

     SMA (20) - Simple Moving Average of 20 periods;

     SMA (60) - Simple Moving Average of 60 periods.

     Correlation - a statistical measure of the linear relationship of two random variables. It is defined as the covariance divided by the standard deviation of two variables.



 Indicators

     Industry performance - daily performance of industries within the particular stock market index

     Top performers - companies within the particular stock market index that showed best or worst daily performance

     Performance - relative historical change of stock market index value




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