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Durability and Service Life Prediction VTT Virtual project

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Durability and Service Life Prediction VTT Virtual project Powered By Docstoc
					Service Life Management System
            of Concrete Structures
         in Nuclear Power Plants
                   SERVICEMAN
                        Erkki Vesikari
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND




                                      SERVICEMAN

                                           In the project SERVICEMAN a service life
                                           management system of concrete structures in
                                           nuclear power plants is being developed in VTT in
                                           cooperation with the Finnish nuclear power
                                           companies.

                                           The SLMS is developed for conducting systematic
                                           maintenance policy and for planning, organizing
                                           and optimizing maintenance strategy of concrete
                                           structures in nuclear power plants.

                                           The SLMS consists of a SLM Tool for
                                           maintenance management and supplementing
                                           structural performance and risk analyses.



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            SERVICEMAN Tool is based on LIFECON1) ideas
                                Predictive        (=able to predict degradation in structures
                                                  and the future needs of repair)
                                Integrated        (= able to take into account degradation,
                                                  costs, environmental impacts, risks and
                                                  other indicators of lifetime quality)
                                Life cycle based (= able to evaluate degradation, costs and
                                                 environmental impacts life cycle based)
                                Probabilistic     (= able to evaluate degradation with stochastic
                                                  models to allow the use of reliability theory in
                                                  timing of intervention actions)
                                Optimising        (= able to optimise the maintenance strategy)



   1) European Union Project LIFECON in 2001-2003. The objective of LIFECON was to
   develope a European model of a predictive and integrated life cycle management system
   for concrete infrastructures. http://lifecon.vtt.fi/

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                       Process of Management System


       The process starts from the
       inspection of structures and                      Inspection of Structures
       ends in the implementation of
       maintenance and repair projects

       The SLM Tool makes the plans        Databases             Service Life Management Tool
       for MR&R projects. The phases       Structural database       Timing of inspections
       of planning are MR&R action
       design, MR&R project design                                   MR&R action design
       and annual resources design.        Modular database
       The SLMS is also able to time                                 MR&R project design
       special inspections.                MR&R system data
                                                                     Annual resources design
       The database consists of
       structural data, modular data
       and MR&R system data.
                                                 Implementation of MR&R Projects




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                                            Modulisation
       NPP Units are divided into structures

       Structures are divided into parts which
       are called ”modules”

       Modules are internally homogeneous in
       terms of materials, structural features and
       environmental stresses (allow application
       of degradation models)

       Modules are the basic units in LC
       analyses and LC planning

       The Module Database is compiled
       according to the defined modulisation and
       it contains all necessary material,
       structural and exposure data of modules.




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VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND



      DATABASE OF                                    DATABASE OF                                        DATABASE OF
      MR&R SYSTEMS                                   STRUCTURES                                         MODULES
        PROTECTION SYSTEMS
        REPAIR SYSTEMS                                                                                  Module ID
                                                                                                                                               Procedure and
        RENOVATION SYSTEMS                           Structure ID                                       Structure ID
      M R&R System ID
      M aterial and structural data
                                                     Construction data
                                                     Surface area and measuring data
                                                     Environmental exposure data
                                                                                                        Surface area and measuring data
                                                                                                        Environmental exposure data
                                                                                                        Material and structural data
                                                                                                                                                 Data Flow
      Consum ption and m easuring data                                                                  Coefficient on degradation
                                                     Material and structural data
      Unit cost data                                                                                    Condition (inspection) data
      Environm ental im pact data                                                                       Performed actions data (incl.
      Degradation rate data                                                                             MR&R System ID, and year)
      Retardation data (protection syst)                                                                Data for automatic timing of actions
      Reference service life data                                                                       Manually timed actions
      Repair effect on condition data                                                                   Damage data (inspection)




                                                                  DATA OF THE ACTIVE MODULE
                                MR&R System ID                   Module specific data from the structural and modular databases
                                                                 Checking of the values (Min, Max check, default values)
                                                                 Final values for parameters of LC analyses




                           LC ANALYSIS TABLE
                                                                                                         DATATABLE OF
             DATA FOR EVERY YEAR WITHIN THE DESIGN PERIOD                                                SPECIFIED AND
          Analysis of the protection             Analysis of module                                      TIMED ACTIONS
          system

          Timing                                 Timing                                                  Project ID
          System ID of protection method         System ID                                               Structure ID
          Predicted service life                 Predicted service life                                  Module ID
          Transition probabilities               Transition probabilities                                MR&R System ID
          Condition state distributions          Condition state distributions                           Year of action
          Timing logic                           (for several degradation types)
                                                                                                         Quantity of action
          Effects on structural degradation      Timing logic
          Costs                                                                                          Cost data
                                                 Costs
          Environmental impacts                                                                          Environmental impact data
                                                 Environmental impacts



                                                                                   Macro

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         Combined Condition, Cost and Environmental Impact Analysis


            2007
            2008
            2009
            2010
            2011
            .       MR&R actions
            .
            2050             Condition     Life cycle   Environ-
            2051              analysis        cost       mental
            .                based on      analysis      impact
            .               Markov Chain                analysis
            .                     +
            .                Condition
            2101              guarding
            2102               system
            .
            . Design period




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                      Automatic timing of actions and calculating LC costs
         Transition probability matrix of original structure
 State       0            1           2            3          4                                                               GENERAL DATA
   0        0.74        0.26          0            0          0                                                               Design period           40     Years
   1         0          0.77        0.23           0          0                DEGRADATION OF                                 Discount rate            3     %
                                                                                                                                                               2
   2         0           0          0.79         0.21         0                ORIGINAL STRUCTURE                             Surface area            50     m
   3         0           0            0          0.79        0.21              Coefficient c 0.3
   4         0           0            0            0          1                Exponent n    0.9                              RESULTS

         Transition probability matrix of repair                                                                              LC COSTS PER UNIT AREA
                                                                                                                                                                      2
 State        0          1            2           3           4                                                               Cumulative real costs  200     Euro/m
                                                                                                                                                                    2
   0          1          0            0           0           0                REPAIR DATA                                    Cumulative PV costs    111     Euro/m
                                                                                                                  2                                                 2
   1        0.95        0.05          0           0           0                Cost            100       Euro/m               Average annual costs   5.00    Euro/m /yr
                                                                                                                                                                    2
   2        0.92        0.05        0.03          0           0                Non-Ren Ener    100       MJ/m2                Equalised annual costs 4.64    Euro/m /yr
   3         0.9        0.05        0.03         0.02         0                CO2              10       kg/m2                Non-Ren Energy         200     MJ/m2
  4         0.88        0.05        0.03        0.02        0.02                                                              CO2                     20     kg/m2
                                                                               DEGRADATION
         Transition probability matrix of degradation after repair             AFTER REPAIR                                   TOTAL LC COSTS
 State       0           1            2          3            4                Coefficient c 0.1                              Cumulative real costs  10000   Euro
   0        0.85        0.15          0          0            0                Exponent n    1.2                              Cumulative PV costs     5526   Euro
   1         0          0.81        0.19         0            0                                                               Average annual costs    250    Euro/year
   2         0           0          0.80        0.20          0                REPAIR CRITERIA                                Equalised annual costs   232   Euro/year
   3         0           0            0         0.78         0.22              Limit state    3                               Non-Ren Energy         10000   MJ
   4         0           0            0          0            1                Max Prob      0.5                              CO2                     1000   kg

 State       0           1           2           3           4                                Repair     Number of LC costs   Discount LC costs Non-Ren         CO2
          Prob(0)     Prob(1)     Prob(2)     Prob(3)     Prob(4)    Average DeProb (>3)      criteria    repairs    real      factor discounted Energy
 Year
   0       1.000       0.000       0.000       0.000       0.000       0.00        0.000         0           0         0        1.000       0         0           0
   1       0.738       0.262       0.000       0.000       0.000       0.26        0.000         0           0         0        0.971       0         0           0
   2       0.544       0.397       0.059       0.000       0.000       0.52        0.000         0           0         0        0.943       0         0           0
   3       0.401       0.450       0.136       0.013       0.000       0.76        0.013         0           0         0        0.915       0         0           0
   4       0.296       0.453       0.209       0.039       0.003       1.00        0.042         0           0         0        0.888       0         0           0
   5       0.218       0.428       0.267       0.076       0.011       1.23        0.086         0           0         0        0.863       0         0           0
   6       0.161       0.389       0.307       0.117       0.026       1.46        0.143         0           0         0        0.837       0         0           0
   7       0.119       0.343       0.329       0.159       0.050       1.68        0.209         0           0         0        0.813       0         0           0
   8       0.088       0.297       0.337       0.196       0.083       1.89        0.279         0           0         0        0.789       0         0           0
   9       0.065       0.253       0.332       0.228       0.123       2.09        0.351         0           0         0        0.766       0         0           0
  10       0.048       0.212       0.318       0.252       0.170       2.28        0.422         0           0         0        0.744       0         0           0
  11       0.035       0.177       0.298       0.268       0.222       2.46        0.490         0           0         0        0.722       0         0           0
  12       0.026       0.146       0.275       0.277       0.277       2.63        0.553         1           0         0        0.701 8     0         0           0
  13       0.910       0.049       0.025       0.011       0.006       0.15        0.017         0           1        100       0.681      68        100         10
VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND




             Markov Chain transition probabilities, 5-state system

                                                                             Condition state vector W
         Transition probability matrix P                                      Probability of being at state 1
           Probability of transiting from state 1 to state 2

 State         0
                   in 1 year
                          1         2       3         4                   W (t ) = [w0 , w1 , w2 , w3 , w4 ]
 0            1-p01       p01       0       0         0
 1             0         1-p12      p12     0         0
 2             0          0        1-p23    p23       0              Matrix multiplication rule:
 3
 4
               0
               0
                          0
                          0
                                    0
                                    0
                                           1-p34
                                            0
                                                     p34
                                                      1
                                                                         W (t ) = W (t − 1) × P


                      i = c ⋅tn                                       1
                                                   pi ;i +1 =        1           1

               where c =
                                 N ls                           ⎛ i +1⎞
                                                                     n   ⎛i⎞     n
                                   n
                                 t sl                           ⎜     ⎟ −⎜ ⎟
                                                                ⎝ c ⎠    ⎝c⎠

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       SERVICEMAN Tool is programmed on MS Excel (VBA)

      MS Excel alone is an adequate base for
      programming LCM Tools.

      Sheets are used for producing
      necessary databases and results tables.
      A considerable part of the
      prograramming can be performed as
      spreadsheet programming.

      Forms are used for making the user
      interface. Normally only forms are
      visible for the users.

      Modules are macro programmes
      working at the background and
      cooperating with spreadsheets. The
      process of life cycle planning is
      implemented using modules.




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            Supplementing Structural Performance and Risk
                              Analyses


 The purpose of the supplementing analyses
 is to secure the safety of the containment
 building with partly degraded materials.
 The risk analyses focus the prestressing
 tendons and the steel liner of the
 containment building.
 One objective of the structural analyses is to
 find acceptance limits for various types of
 degradation.




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VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND




                                           Conclusions

       SERVICEMAN tool is used for life
       cycle design and systematic
       maintenance of structures.
       The developed LC management
       tools are based on the “LIFECON
       principles”: Predictive, integrated, life
       cycle based, probabilistic and
       optimising.
       Structural performance analyses and
       risk analyses supplement the service
       life management system.




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