NSF and Space Weather by zhouwenjuan


									NSF and Space Weather

Presentation to the Space Weather
       Assessment Group
           July 7, 2005

          Rich Behnke
              The National Space
               Weather Program

NSWP was initiated in 1994
when community leaders
approached NSF with
concept of new emphasis on
“space weather”
             Space Weather
            The Time had Come

• Space weather was ready for major
  scientific advances
  • powerful computing capabilities and techniques
    becoming available
  • new space-based and ground-based observations
• Society’s vulnerability to space weather
  rapidly increasing
  • more space-based assets
  • sophisticated technologies more susceptible
  • more reliance on technology
    What Exited before the National Space
             Weather Program

• No “interagency” system
   • DoD, NOAA, NASA, DoE, USGS, NSF acted
   • 5-year plan through Office of Federal Coordinator for
     Meteorological Services & Supporting Research
     (OFCM) merely catalogued existing capabilities
• No active coordinated process to set national
  priorities and focus interagency efforts
    Need for a National Space
       Weather Program
• Identify customer needs
• Set priorities
• Determine agency roles
• Coordinate interagency activities
• Ensure exchange of information and plans
• Encourage and focus research
• Facilitate transition of research results into
• Help educate the next generation of space
                National Space Weather Program
   • Fall--Community develops idea of a coordinated Space Weather
       Program (Siscoe, Lotko, Hildner, Lanzerotti, Killeen)
   •   Fall -- Quantitative Magnetospheric Modeling Program developed by
   •   Fall--informal talks at NSF
   •   AGU (Fall 93) lunch meeting (practice for NSF presentation)
   •   Dec 20--Community presentation to Bob Corell at NSF (AD/GEO)
   •   March 2--NSF hosts Space Weather Working Supper, for 30 leaders
       from academe, industry, and government agencies
   •   June 16--NSF hosts interagency follow-up meeting for 9 agency leaders
       (OFCM is considered as appropriate coordination vehicle)
   •   Aug 11--Meeting (NSF, DoD, NRC/NAS) at OFCM to discuss strategy
   • Sept 13--First Ad-hoc working group meeting at NSF--decision to petition
     OFCM to become an official Working Group under OFCM
   • Ad-hoc Working Group meetings (Sep 15, 22, Oct 6, 11)
   • Oct 13--Presentation to OFCM--Working Group proposal accepted
               Space Weather

refers to conditions on the sun and in the solar wind,
magnetosphere, and ionosphere/ thermosphere that can
influence the performance and reliability of space-
borne and ground-based technological systems, and
endanger human life. Space weather storms can cause
disruption of satellites, communications, navigation,
and electric power distribution grids.
   National Space Weather Program
        Overall Goal and Vision
• The main idea of the NSWP is to develop
   a system to prevent or reduce space
   weather disasters
• The Strategic Plan calls for: “An active,
   synergistic, interagency, ‘single-minded’
   system to achieve the goal of timely,
   accurate, and reliable space environment
   observations, specifications, and forecasts
   in the next 10 years
    National Space Weather Program
•    To advance
     • observing capabilities
     • fundamental understanding of processes
     • numerical modeling
     • data processing and analysis
     • forecasting accuracy and reliability
     • space weather products and services
     • education on space weather effects
•   In order to prevent
     • under- or over-design of technical systems
     • regional blackouts of power utilities
     • early demise of multi-million dollar satellites
     • disruption of communications via satellite,
        HF, and VHF radio
     • errors in navigation systems
     • excessive radiation doses dangerous to human health
              NSWP Elements

• Improve accuracy, reliability, and timeliness of forecasts and
•   Support basic research on physical processes of the coupled sun-
    earth system
•   Ensure that critical ground- and space-based observations are
•   Develop end-to-end, physics-based models with predictive
    capabilities and user-friendly interfaces
•   Focus educational efforts toward forecasters, engineers, students,
    customers, and the general public
•   Ensure technology transition and integration of research and
    models into operation systems
   Relation between science and applications
                    New paradigm

                    Pure basic     Use-inspired basic
                     research           research
                      (Bohr)           (Pasteur)

                                      Pure applied

  Quest for                             (Edison)
               of use
  The National Space Weather Program
                  Agencies Working Together

                               Key Stakeholders

       Defense                                             (NOAA)

     NASA                                                   Energy
(Living With A Star)

              Transportation                  Interior
                       (FAA)                      (USGS)
National Space Weather Program
           Agencies Working Together
   Communications, Satellite Operations, Power Grids,
          Manned Spaceflight, Navigation


               Forecasting and Warning Services
                       ( NOAA, DOD)
                                  Technology Transition
                                     and Integration

Research        Observations        Models            Education
                (NSF, NASA, NOAA, DOD, DOE)
The National Space Weather Program
     A three-dimensional approach...


                                   Solar Wind




            National Space Weather Program
                           Administrative Structure

                                   Office of the Federal
                                Coordinator for Meteorology

                                        Space Weather
                                       Program Council

                                        Committee for
                                        Space Weather

Implementation              CCMC and                      Int’l                  Coordination
 Plan Update                  RPCs                      Activities                with LWS

                 Metrics                  Research                   Space Architect            Other
                                         Competitions                Transition Plan
New NSWP Implementation Plan

                            The National Space
• Produced by Committee     Weather Program
  for Space Weather
  (cochairs: NSF, DOD
  and NOAA) working on    Update to the Implementation Plan

  regular basis

• Completed July 2000
      The National Space Weather Program
     External Review of the Implementation Plan

• Presentations to AGU
• Presentations to the National Academy
• Review by the National Academy
• Presentations to CEDAR and GEM communities
What’s in the Implementation
Plan Update?
 • A description of the NSWP goals, program elements, strategies
 • A review of current Space Weather capabilities-observations and
 •   A description of Space Weather metrics
 •   A summary of funded Space Weather awards
 •   A description of future observational capabilities, both research
     and operational
 •   Timelines for operational and research missions and model
 •   A statement of near-term NSWP priorities
 •   A description of progress in transitioning research to operations
 •   A description of NSWP educational activities
 •   A description of NSWP Program Management and Agency Roles
 •   Appendices describing research objectives, Living With a Star,
     and the National Security Space Architect study
            Who wrote the NSWP
         Implementation Plan Update?
•   Contains portions of the NSWP Strategic Plan written by agency reps in
    1994 and 1995
•   Contains portions of the NSWP Implementation Plan written by agency
    reps in 1996 and 1997
•   Section on metrics written by NSF-appointed Metrics Working Group
•   Community input for descriptions of models and observations
•   Section on education written by Space Science Institute and SEC
•   Section on Living With a Star written by NASA reps
•   Section on Space Architect study written by DoD reps
•   Integration of text performed by Office of the Federal Coordinator for
    Meteorology in coordination with NSF, NOAA, NASA, and DoD
•   Research objectives written by NSF-appointed working group which met
    in 1995
                          Ionosphere Model                             Time-dependent                        Nested and Adaptive
                            (I18, I21, I23)                          Ionosphere Model                          Grid Ionosphere                               Coupled
                                                                      (I16,I19,I20, I22)                     Thermosphere Model                           Magnetosphere
                                                                                                                     (I17)                                  Ionosphere/
                            Empirical                                                                                                                      Thermosphere
                        Thermosphere Model                                                  Thermosphere                                                    Model with
                              (I14)                                                           Ionosphere                                                  E-Fields ( M21)
                            Ionospheric                                                    Model (I15,I18)
                         Conductivity Model

                                                                                                             Statistical Low

                                                         Statistical Low                                     & Mid-Latitude                Physics-Based
                        Assimilative Empirical                                                                                             High Latitude
                            High Latitude                & Mid-Latitude                                      E-Field Model
                                                         E-Field Model                                       with Storms and               E-Field Model
                           E-Field Model                                                                                                    (M17-M21)
                               (I1-I12)                        (I14)                                            Substorms

                            Data-Driven                                                                                              Physics-Based
                             Climatolgy                                                                                            Scintillation Model
                         Scintillation Model                                                                                               (I24)

Global Magnetic Indices:                                 Dst, Kp, Ae forecast

 Model Integration, Data                          MURI
Validation and Assimilation:                    CCMC

                                                                                                                                                                            E-Field Satellite
                 •SuperDARN            ARGOS                                     Atmospheric

                 •Riometers             MSX                                      Observatory

                 •Incoherent           POLAR
                  Scatter Radars        FAST                           TIMED
                 •Ground-based          GLO                                                                                                              GEC
                   Optical            ASTRID-2       IMAGE                      COSMIC                                                                                                LWS
                   Instruments         SNOE                                                                                                                                        Ionospheric
                 •AGOs                ØRSTED                                      C/NOFS                                                                                             Mappers

                              1999                                                                           2004                                                                         2009
                                                                      Ionosphere/Thermosphere Timeline
                         NSWP Research Priorities
              1996                           1997                           1999                            2000
Understanding and prediction   Understanding and prediction   Understanding and prediction    Understanding and prediction
of processes affecting solar   of processes affecting solar   of processes affecting solar    of processes affecting solar
activity, such as coronal      activity, such as coronal      activity, such as coronal       activity, such as coronal
mass ejections and solar       mass ejections and solar       mass ejections and solar        mass ejections and solar
flares                         flares                         flares                          flares
Coupling between the solar     Coupling between the solar     Coupling between the solar      Coupling between the solar
wind and the magnetosphere     wind and the magnetosphere     wind and the magnetosphere      wind and the magnetosphere
                                                                                              and between the
                                                                                              magnetosphere and
The origin and energization of The origin and energization of The origin and energization of The origin and energization of
magnetospheric plasma          magnetospheric plasma          magnetospheric plasma           magnetospheric plasma
The triggering and temporal The triggering and temporal The triggering and temporal The triggering and temporal
evolution of substorms and     evolution of substorms and     evolution of substorms and      evolution of substorms and
storms                         storms                         storms                          storms
The evolution of ionospheric Improved global ionospheric Improved global ionospheric Improved global ionospheric
irregularities and             specification and forecast     specification and forecast      specification and forecast
scintillations                 and the evolution of           and the evolution of            and the evolution of
                               ionospheric irregularities,    ionospheric irregularities,     ionospheric irregularities,
                               including the onset of low     including the onset of low      including the onset of low
                               latitude ionospheric           latitude ionospheric            latitude ionospheric
                               irregularities                 irregularities, with particular irregularities, with particular
                                                              emphasis on those               emphasis on those
                                                              processes affecting             processes affecting
                                                              communication and               communication and
                                                              navigation systems              navigation systems
Thermospheric dynamics and Improved specification of          Improved specification of       Improved specification of
its coupling to the ionosphere thermospheric dynamics and thermospheric dynamics and thermospheric dynamics and
                               neutral densities              neutral densities               neutral densities
                                                              Validation and enhancement Validation and enhancement
                                                              of ionospheric and              of ionospheric and
                                                              magnetospheric models,          magnetospheric models,
                                                              including data assimilation     including data assimilation
                                                              techniques, to improve          techniques, to improve
                                                              operational forecasting and     operational forecasting and
                                                              specification capabilities      specification capabilities
                                                                                              Modelers who wish to
                                                                                              implement and run codes at
                                                                                              the Community Coordinated
                                                                                              Modeling Center (CCMC) in
                                                                                              order to accomplish any of
                                                                                              the above objectives may
                                                                                              include these activities in
                                                                                              their proposals.
                 NSWP Metrics
• Need to establish metrics against which quantitative goals
  can be defined and against which progress can be
• What are the parameters and events to be predicted?
• Where are we in terms of model and measurement
• What level of prediction accuracy, timeliness, etc. is
            NSWP -- Metrics Panels

Solar-Interplanetary                   Magnetosphere-                           Ionosphere-
                                         Ionosphere                            Thermosphere
T. Bastien                          J. Albert                               D. Anderson
J. Davils                           D. Baker                                S. Basu
S. Habbal                           W. Burke*(-4/98)                        W. Denig
J. Harvey                           J. Horwitz                              D. Farley
E. Hildner*                         J. Lyon                                 B. Fejer*
T. Hocksema                         T. Onsager                              T. Fuller-Rowell
S. Kahler                           J. Raeder                               R. Heelis*
J. Klimchuk*                        J. Rochier                              T. Killeen*
J. Lean                             H. Singer*                              F. Marcos
J. Linker*                          T. Tascione*                            R. Meier
D. Neidig*                          D. Vassiliadis                          P. Richards
V. Pizzo*                           R. Wolf*                                R. Schunk
                                                                            E. Szuszczewicz*

       * Initial panel membership responsible for generating first draft in Fall, 1997.
       Metrics Example

36-h 500-mb Operational Forecast
       over North America

         Ionosphere-Thermosphere Metric

For each of the four i.s. radars determine:
                                               2
                  h,20no;t h   nm;t h  
                      23     600                           2
         24  21 t 0  200                      
Where no;t(h) is the observed density at altitude h and time t and
nm;t(h) is the corresponding model value. RMS error in the
density measured/computed hourly at 21 altitudes, averaged over
24 hours.
         (Allowed inputs for the models include Ap, Kp, F10.7, and
all normally available satellite data.)
                        Ionosphere-Thermosphere Metric

Skill Score

                    0       24      48           72   96   120
     National Space Weather Program
                        NSF’s Role
• Catalyst for interagency cooperation and community
    • Example: AGU Space Weather journal
• Support of basic research underpinnings (about half or our
    space physics funding)
•   Over 150 new focused space weather awards since 1996
•   New Science and Technology Center (CISM) devoted to
    space weather modeling
•   Support to other major modeling efforts (CCMC)
•   New Observational platforms – Advanced Modular
    Incoherent Scatter Radar, the ATST, and, hopefully, DASI
                   Contributions to Space Weather Funding
            NSF Aeronomy                              NSF Magnetospheric Physics
            NSF Solar/Solar Wind                      Air Force Office of Scientific Research
            Office of Naval Research                  NSF Office of Polar Programs
            NSF Upper Atmospheric Facilities









            FY96     FY97    FY98     FY99     FY00     FY01      FY02      FY03     FY04       FY05
Total number of awards: 398
  average duration 3.3 years

        Total: $153,407,195
The National Space Weather Program
               Some Early NSF Activities
•   Basic Research Competition (with ONR and AFOSR) for 1997
     • $1 M available, 63 proposals, 16 funded
•   Support for Grant “Matching User Needs and Space Weather
    Service Capabilities”
•   Support for Grant “Determining Space Weather Requirements
    for the U.S. Commercial Space Community”
•   Support for Workshop on Space Weather Effects on
    Communication and Navigation (Sept. 97)
•   Support for educational outreach effort
•   Support to National Academy (CSTR) for annual review of
    NSWP science plan
•   Informal meeting at IAGA (Uppsala) to pursue international
    Space Weather program
         NSF Space Weather Activities
               more recent NSF Activities
• AMISR and other Ground-based Facilities
• Annual Space Weather proposal competition—
    with AFOSR and ONR
•   CCMC
•   AGU Space Weather Journal
•   Metrics formulation and challenges
•   CSW activities: co-chair and member, tracking of
    progress, web site development
           More Examples of NSWP Research
• A study of solar prominences and model calculations
    of the solar mag field
•   Development of adaptive grids for coupled models
•   Use of Iridium satellites to determine instantaneous
    auroral boundary position
•   Modeling ionospheric convection and thermospheric
•   End to end modeling of space weather during
    geomagnetic storms
•   CCMC computers, metrics studies
•   IMAX film, Space Weather Workshops, space weather
    educational activities
•   Kevin Forbes studyl
•   CCMC computers, metrics studies
Real-time convection map
CME Tracking using Interplanetary
Scintillations (IPS)

                   This Carrington maps (with heliographic longitude and
                   Carrington rotation number on the horizontal, and
                   latitude on the vertical axis) show solar wind density at
                   the distance of the Earth from the Sun on 2001/06/05 16
                   UT . The values to the left of the dashed line are those
                   forecast to arrive at Earth at the dates indicated above
                   the map. The density at the Earth are shown as traces at
                   the bottom of the display. The maps are derived from a
                   corotating model of the solar wind that is fit to
                   interplanetary scintillation (IPS) velocities and g-levels
                   received daily from STELab, Japan. The display is
                   updated hourly.
                   (ref: B. Jackson, M. Kojima et al.)
         Space Weather and the Real-Time Price on the California
         ISO Real Time Electricity Market         (Sept 20-24 1999)

                                       Dst index is an indicator of
                                       geomagnetic disturbance.
                                       Magnetic storms create
Dollars per Mwh

                                       strongly negative index.

                       Hour (Pacific Daylight Time)
       Science – 3 Examples
• Nature of Solar X-ray Sigmoids
• Ionospheric ion outflow
• TEC: Data and Modeling
                        Nature of Solar X-ray Sigmoids
Observed Xray sigmoid
  Gibson et al, 2002           • X-ray sigmoids (S-shaped hot plasmas) are observed to be
                               sites of solar eruptions (flares and coronal mass ejections)

                               • MHD theory suggests that X-ray sigmoid brightenings are
                               enhanced heating at electric current sheets forming between
                               winding and non-winding magnetic fields

                               • 3D MHD simulation (below) shows that an emerging
                               twisted magnetic flux rope drives the formation of current
                               sheets reproducing observed X-ray sigmoid morphology

             Simulation of emerging writhing magnetic flux rope Fan and Gibson, 2003
                                                                       The simulated current sheet

                                                                                           t  58
                                                                           | j|

            Fan / Gibson
            Ionospheric ion outflow
                                          • During large magnetic
                                            storms large flows of ions
                                            are observed to come out
                                            of the ionosphere and
                                            enhance the ring current.
                                          • The factors that appear to
                                            determine the outflow flux
                                             • DC Poynting flux (field-
                                               aligned electric currents)
                                             • Alfvén Poynting flux
Red points show dayside events, blue         • Precipitating electron flux
show nightside events, black points are
averaged over the orbit of the FAST
satellite (R. Strangeway, UCLA, ATM-
                 TEC: Data and Modeling
 TEC derived indirectly from GPS attenuation or directly by
    incoherent scatter radar (ISR), satellite (DMSP) and ionosonde
    networks is being assimilated to provide the global TEC picture.

                                                           A major source of
                                                           Communication and
                                                           Disturbances results
                                                           from Total Electron
                                                           Content (TEC)
                                                           variations in the
                                                           column between GPS
                                                           transmitters and

Onset of the 2003 “Halloween Storm” generates a plume of ionization after sunset
as detected by EISCAT and Sonde ISRs, and by DMSP. The plume does not
extend to Millstone Hill. [J. Foster and J. Holt, ATM-9919598, ATM-0207748]
Center for Integrated Space Weather
         Modelng (CISM)

  An NSF Science and Technology Center

    Boston University and consortium
              Space Weather School
                Center for Integrated Space Weather
                         Modeling (CISM)

                                    • The Center for Integrated
                                      Space- Weather Modeling
                                      (CISM) conducts a
                                      summer school for 2
                                      weeks each year to
                                      introduce graduate
                                      students to the issues and
                                      problems of space weather
Participants in the Space Weather
school, summer 2001 (W.J.
Hughes, Boston Univ., ATM-
0000950, 0120950)
Community Coordinated Modeling Center

NASA   NOAA       AFWA         AFOSR           NSF

              •An interagency partnership to facilitate
              the development, validation, and testing
              of space weather models, which can
              eventually be transferred to Rapid
              Prototyping Centers to adapt for
              operational use

              •Bridges the gap between research and
      IMAX Film -- SolarMax
• Was shown at Air and
  Space Museum
• Very well received by AGU
• Highly visible credit to NSF
 Space Weather Science -- the
“While it is true that important applications
 will result from the National Space Weather
 Program, the science that will result will be
 first rate... Indeed, the initiative provides a
 context in which much of solar-terrestrial
 physics can and should be done”
                  -- Louis Lanzerotti
               Space Weather Publications
               Publications with "Space Weather" in title or
                                   NSWP started

                     1985   1987   1989   1991     1993   1995   1997   1999

Advanced Modular Incoherent Scatter Radar
 (AMISR): A Global Incoherent Scatter Radar

      • A transportable upper atmospheric radar
      • PI: Dr. John Kelly, SRI International
      • Total construction cost: $44,000,000 over 4 years
             AMISR – What is it?
• the first state-of-the art phased array incoherent scatter radar
• deployable to any geographic location on the globe
• a tool to measure composition, temperature, density and motion of
    the Earth’s ionosphere and upper atmosphere
•   capable of 3-D imaging of the ionosphere via the use of multiple
    beams with electronic steering
•   completely modular: 3 faces – each face made up of 128 panels (a
    total of 12,288 active transmit/receive elements).
•   all solid state – easy maintenance
•   Can be operated remotely from any classroom or laboratory with a
    computer and the Internet
AMISR in Poker Flat
          ATST – Advanced Technology
                Solar Telescope
Science Drivers:
     • Resolution – ~7X improvement
     • Light grasp – 10X improvement (solar physics is
           actually photon starved in some experiments)

Technical Specifications:
    • 4 m, off-axis Gregorian (all reflective), alt-az mount.
    • Integrated adaptive optics.
    • Hybrid enclosure.
    • 0.3-28 microns (near-UV through thermal IR).
    • FOV: 3 arcminutes (5 arcminute goal).
    • Angular resolution < 0.03 arcsecond.
    • Polarization accuracy < 0.01%.
    • Scattered Light < 1% of photosphere (sunspots);
          coronographic in IR.
    • Two rotating Coude laboratories.
    • Internal seeing and dust mitigation.
        22 Collaborative Institutions with NSO PI.

        Co-PIs: HAO, NJIT, U Chicago, U Hawai’i
       Distributed Arrays of Small Instruments

                                   GPS Receivers
                                   Optical Imagers
                                   Passive Radar
                                   Neutron Monitors
                                   Scintillation and VLF Rx
Technology: ITR, Miniaturization   Tomography Receivers
EPO Opportunities
   The Sun to the Earth
   —and Beyond
   A Decadal Research Strategy in
   Solar and Space Physics

Challenge 5: Developing a near-real-time predictive
capability for understanding and quantifying the
impact on human activities of dynamical processes at
the Sun, in the interplanetary medium, and in
Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere.

“An effective response to these challenges will
require a carefully crafted program of space- and
ground-based observations combined with, and
guided by, comprehensive theory and modeling

    Space Weather is at the frontier of research
Solar and space physics in colleges and

Recommendation: the NSF and NASA should jointly
  establish a program of "bridged positions" that provides
  (through a competitive process) partial salary, startup
  funding, and research support for four new faculty
  members per year for 5 years.
                     Faculty Initiative

• We made eight (8!) awards for new tenure-track
  faculty positions within the intellectual disciplines which
  comprise the space sciences. (We only promised to make 3.)
  But many really good proposals needed to be declined.

• Winners: Arizona, Colorado, Dartmouth, George Mason,
  Hawaii, New Jersey Institute of Technology, Penn
  State,Virginia Tech

• The primary aim of these awards is to develop space physics
  graduate programs capable of training the next generation of
  leaders in this field.
Recent Competitions have not provided enough
student support so we are adding the following to
CEDAR, GEM, SHINE and NSWP announcements:

   “The NSF is deeply concerned about the
   education of the next generation of space
   physics researchers. This solicitation
   therefore encourages proposals that address
   the education of PhD students and provides
   for direct involvement of students at the
   undergraduate and graduate levels. The
   proposed educational involvement should be
   specified as clearly as possible.”
                         E- courses
• Many of our space physics fields have a subcritical number of
    students at any particular school
•   We need to have our best professors teach courses in
    ionosphere studies, magnetosphereic physics, solar studies,
    incoherent scatter, optics, etc to the extended classroom
•   The classes can be taught over the web or through the Access
•   Classes should have a multi-university agreement to be
    accredited at all participating univerisities
•   This will happen!
       New joint funding with NASA on some
        targeted space weather areas planned
• Joint NSF/NASA announcement planned in early Fall
•   One set of reviewers and one panel
•   Targeted areas include M-I coupling, propagation of
    discontinuities in the solar wind
•   NSF part must have an academic institution with
    student involvement
•   Awards will be for up to $500K/yr for up to 5 years
    National Space Weather Program

• Industrial participants are reluctant to reveal
  sensitivities of existing systems to the space
• DoD is constrained as to the extent to which they
  can discuss requirements
• Transitioning applicable research results to
  operational capabilities remains underfunded
    What has the NSWP done?
• Brought government agencies together
• Created a high priority national program
    resulting in increased visibility and funding at
    several agencies
•   Defined a focus for meetings and workshops
•   Motivated recent media attention
•   Inspired new scientific studies and
•   Prevented impacts on humans and technical
    systems from space environmental effects
             Advances in Understanding Space
                Weather -- Agency Synergy

•   NASA: Living With a Star
      Space Weather Research Satellites
•   NSF: Ground-based instruments
      IS radars; Optical facilities; SuperDarn
      Advanced Modular IS Radar
      Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (being studied
       as future AST MRE candidate)
•   New modeling techniques (NSF, NASA, DOD)
      Coupling predictive models of individual regimes
          Joint agency Community Coordinated Modeling
          DoD MURI
          NSF Science and Tech Center – Center for
            Integrated Space Weather Modeling
          Center for Space Environment Modeling (U. of
      High speed models, adaptive grids
        Key Elements of the NSWP
   Good Science: Prediction is the ultimate test of knowledge
       many of the goals are identical to those endorsed by the NAS in “A Science
        Strategy for Space Physics.” New NAS decadal study has begun and the role of
        space weather will be a central feature.
   Multi- disciplinary: The space environment is a truly coupled
    system from the sun to the earth
   Relevant: Responsive to both civilian and DoD needs
   Community-driven: A grass roots effort from the beginning
   Appealing to the Public: Has received much recent media attention
       IMAX movie, Christian Science Monitor, Chicago Tribune, Washington Post,
        Dallas Morning News, Discover, Time, AGU News Conference
   Multi- agency: DoD, NSF, NOAA, NASA, DOE, DOI
   International: Canada, Pacific Rim, Europe, FSU all interested
   Achievable: The community poised to address the outstanding
The National Space Weather Program

• The National Space Weather Program is
  advancing on many fronts
• An “active, synergistic, interagency
  system” really has emerged

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