Docstoc

Jeff-Saut-Gleanings

Document Sample
Jeff-Saut-Gleanings Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                                     Investment Strategy
                                                                                                      Published by Raymond James & Associates


Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffery.Saut@RaymondJames.com
Art Huprich, CMT, Chief Market Technician, (727) 567-2494, Art.Huprich@RaymondJames.com                        October 9, 2012
Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., Chief Economist, (727) 567-2603, Scott.J.Brown@RaymondJames.com




 A Monthly Chart Presentation and Discussion Pulling Together the Separate Disciplines of
 Economics, Fundamentals, Technical Analysis, and Quantitative Analysis
 •    The rally that began with Mario Draghi’s “put option” to do whatever is needed to bail out Euroland has
      paused. The question now is - is this the pause that refreshes, or the calm before the storm? Our sense is
      that this is the pause that refreshes, as more clarity will come following the presidential election, which
      has caused businesses to step to the sidelines until after November 6th. No wonder the economic
      statistics have stalled.
 •    The main reason for our overall equity optimism is the open-ended central bank’s “put
      option,” QE3.
 •    The Fed says it is targeting mortgage rates with QE3, but also has an eye on equity prices
      on the belief that rising home prices and equity prices will increase confidence and foster more consumer
      spending. We agree.
  Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information and Analyst Certification beginning on slide 28.


© 2012 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved.
International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800 -248-8863
Jeffrey Saut

   The Fed is Targeting Mortgage Rates and, Unsurprisingly, 30-Year
 Mortgage Rates Have Declined to a Recent Generational Low of 3.38%
Before Experiencing a Slight Uptick. Obviously This is Helping Housing.

                                                                               Average Mortgage Rates: 1986 - Present
                            11.1%

                            10.6%

                            10.1%

                            9.6%

                            9.1%
                                                                                                       26 Year Avg.
                            8.6%                                                                   Mortgage Rate = 7.3%
                            8.1%
           Mortgage Rates




                            7.6%

                            7.1%
                                                                                                                                                                          Current Rates = 3.7%
                            6.6%

                            6.1%

                            5.6%                                                    Rates Trough in 1993

                            5.1%
                                                                                                                   Rates Reach Cycle
                            4.6%                                                                                      Low in 2003

                            4.1%

                            3.6%

                            3.1%
                                    '86   '87   '88   '89   '90   '91   '92   '93    '94   '95   '96   '97   '98    '99   '00   '01   '02   '03   '04   '05   '06   '07   '08   '09   '10   '11   '12

                                                                                       Recession                   1986 - Present                 Historical Average




                                                                                    Source: Raymond James Research

2
Jeffrey Saut

The 30-Year Mortgage-Backed Security Divided by the 10-year Treasury
 Spread Has Also Collapsed to Generational Lows, Suggesting Mortgage
       Rates Will Go Even Lower. Another Tailwind for Housing.
               % SPREAD




                          Source: Bloomberg and Raymond James research.

3
Jeffrey Saut

Plainly, the Aforementioned “Mortgage Duo” is Bolstering Annualized
Existing Home Sales, Which Continue to Accelerate. Reinforcing That
View is the University of Michigan “Good Time to Buy a House” Survey,
              Which Recorded a Nine -Year High Recently.
              8,000,000



              7,000,000



              6,000,000



              5,000,000
      UNITS




              4,000,000



              3,000,000



              2,000,000
                      1989   1991   1993   1995   1997   1999   2001   2003     2005   2007   2009   2011
                                       Source: Raymond James Research/FactSet



4
Jeffrey Saut

    Pricing is Also Improving: Existing Home Prices: 1990 – 2012
                                                     (Trailing 12-Month Average)

                   $240,000                                                                                    25%

                   $220,000                                                                                    20%
                                                 Existing Home Prices Inching Higher
                   $200,000                                                                                    15%
                                                                                                               10%




                                                                                                                      Y/Y % Change
    Median Price




                   $180,000
                                                                                                               5%
                   $160,000
                                                                                                               0%
                   $140,000
                                                                                                               -5%
                   $120,000                                                                                    -10%
                   $100,000                                                                                    -15%
                    $80,000                                                                                    -20%
                             1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

                                       Source: National Realtors Association and Raymond James research.

    •              On a trailing 12-month basis, the existing home median price is up 1.0% y/y (depicted in chart).
    •              The data points continue to trend better. The median existing home sale price rose 9.4% y/y in July, due to
                   fewer distressed sales and higher demand from “move-up” and luxury buyers.

5
Jeffrey Saut

 With Housing’s Improvement, and a Friendly Fed Buying MBSs, Bank
Stocks Have Been on a Tear, as Reflected in the KBW Bank Index (BKX).
    PHLX KBW Bank Index (24 Leading Banks) (BKXK)
    Price (USD)
                                                                                                                        55




                                                                                                                        50




                                                                                                                        45




                                                                                                                Price
                                                                                                                        40




                                                                                                                        35




0                                                                                                                       30
      Oct          Nov          Dec              Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug         Sep
        PHLX KBW Bank Index (24 Leading Banks)
                                                                                                 Source: FactSet Prices



6
Jeffrey Saut

    We Think the Environment for Financial Institutions is Going to
               Continue to be Driven by These Metrics:

      1. Valuation - Group is at the low end of the valuation range looking at the last 20 years or
      so. The big reason is trust. Investors don't trust the earnings or the balance sheets
      (book). This is where the regulatory process comes in - it will improve trust over time.

      2. Balance sheet cleanup ongoing - All financial institutions are working hard to improve
      the quality and stability of their balance sheets. This means making good new loans and
      cleaning up the bad old ones. Eventually the entire balance sheet will be made up of loans
      that have been originated in the more conservative environment (last five years). This out
      with the old and in with the new effort will allow for more consistent and predictable
      earnings and book value growth.

      3. Residential housing is stabilizing - One of the most important developments thus
      far. The decline in housing created the recession and the improvement in housing will lead
      to recovery.




7
Jeffrey Saut

                    Our Fundamental Bank Analysts
                       Agree With That Premise

        “We expect the vast majority of banks to meet or beat the Street mean estimate
        for 3Q12; however, any EPS adjustments for 2013 will likely be downward due
        to continued net interest margin (NIM) concerns. Although we expect
        commercial loan growth, lower deposit costs, liquidity deployment, and debt
        refinancing to help mitigate some of the NIM pressure, we believe banks are
        quickly realizing most of these benefits as revenue growth headwinds persist.
        Assuming economic data and investor sentiment do not materially improve,
        low interest rates are expected to persist well into 2014. M&A activity remains
        a key wild card and this challenging operating environment, coupled with
        increased regulatory burden, should eventually drive a pickup in merger
        activity. However, in our view, a tepid economic recovery, uncertainty
        regarding capital requirements, and a wide gap between seller/buyer
        expectations have delayed what many anticipate will be a wave of
        consolidation.” – Raymond James Banking Team




8
Jeffrey Saut

   While There are Many Individual Bank Stocks in Raymond James’
  Research Universe With Favorable Ratings From Our Fundamental
Analysts (Consult Your Financial Advisor), One of My Preferred Ways to
      Get More Exposer to the Banking Complex is Using FBRSX


               FBR Small Cap Financial Fund (FBRSX). The fund employs
               a consistent fundamental, bottom-up investment process
               to identify small-cap financial services companies that
               meet the strict criteria necessary for inclusion in the
               portfolio. Emphasis is on attractive valuations based on
               traditional industry relative value measures. The net
               result is a diversified portfolio of financial companies that
               aims to provide shareholders with conservative exposure
               to the financial services industry. The fund is captained by
               David Ellison, who I met some 30 years ago. As testament
               to his expertise, David raised 40% cash in the 1Q08.
               Clearly, my kind of investor.



9
  Scott Brown

Inflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending (70% of Gross Domestic Product)
  Has Continued to Trend at a Moderate Pace, Supported by Job Growth.
       Dollars




10
 Scott Brown
     Replacement Needs (an Aging Fleet) and Easier Bank Credit Have
          Supported an Improving Trend in Motor Vehicle Sales.
      Millions




11
  Scott Brown
Home Sales and Construction Activity are Up by Double-Digit Percentages
 From a Year Ago. Housing Has Turned the Corner, but a Full Recovery is
                           Still Years Away.
         Thousands




 12
  Scott Brown
  The Decline in Home Prices Has Been a Drag on Consumer Spending
(Through the Wealth Effect), but Prices Have Begun to Turn Up This Year.
         Home Price Index Value




13
 Scott Brown

     Private-Sector Job Growth Has Been Moderate, Consistent With
       Population Growth, but Not Making Up Much of the Ground
                  That Was Lost During the Downturn.
       Thousands




14
 Scott Brown

     Based On Unemployment Insurance Tax Records, the Benchmark
     Revision to March 2012 Private-Sector Payrolls (to be Applied In
                 February 2013) Will Be About +453,000.
         Thousands




15
 Scott Brown

     On September 13, citing concern about the pace of recovery in the labor market,
     Federal Reserve policymakers:

     1. Extended its forward guidance on short-term interest rates (“the Committee
     anticipates that exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate are likely to be
     warranted at least through mid-2015.”)

     2. Launched a third Large-Scale Asset Purchase program (“QE3”) – the Fed will
     purchase $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed securities with no set
     ending date and “if the outlook for the labor market does not improve
     substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-
     backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other
     policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price
     stability.”

     In his post-meeting press briefing, Chairman Bernanke said that these moves
     should put downward pressure on long-term interest rates. He added that while
     the Fed cannot solve all of the economy’s problems, it is obliged to do what it can
     to support economic growth and labor market improvement.


16
 Scott Brown
     The Fed’s Actions Should Help Keep Long-Term Interest Rates
       Low, Providing Further Support for the Housing Sector by
            Encouraging Home Purchases and Refinancing.




17
 Scott Brown
 Ex-Food & Energy, the PCE Price Index is Trending Below the Fed’s 2%
Target. Other Measures of Core Inflation Have Also Been Drifting Lower.




18
 Scott Brown
With a Large Amount of Slack in the Labor Market, the Widest Channel
for Inflation Pressure, the Underlying Trend in Inflation is Expected to
                         Remain Relatively Low.




19
 Scott Brown

     Economic Outlook: Real GDP growth of around 1.5% to 2.0% in the near term, but 2013
     depends on how much of the fiscal cliff is postponed.
     •   Economic Headwinds
           – Housing (negative wealth effect on spending, but easing as home prices rise)
           – Global slowdown (Europe, China)
           – Tight credit for some borrowers
           – Contractionary fiscal policy at all levels of government
     •   Economic Tailwinds
           – Accommodative monetary policy
           – Homebuilding
           – Autos
     •   Economic Wildcards
           – Gasoline prices
           – The election
     •   Economic Risks
           –   Europe
           –   Fiscal cliff (Bush-era tax cuts, payroll tax reduction, spending cuts)
           –   Debt ceiling (to be reached around the end of the year)



20
   Art Huprich
  Consistent With the Following Statement on Page 1 of This Report: “The Main Reason for Our
Overall Equity Optimism is the Open-Ended Central Bank’s ‘Put Option,’” QE3. We Can See That the
S&P 500 has Reacted Favorably During Previous Periods of “QE” Type Activity. While the Size of
    This Move May Be Different, Nothing Suggests the Direction (Higher) Will Be Different.
                                             Fed's QE & The S&P 500
                                                                                                                          1,800
                S&P 500




                                                  QE 1 Ends                                                               1,600



                                                                                                                S&P 500

                                                                                                                          1,400
                                                                       QE 2 Ends


                                                                                                           QE 3




                                                                                                                                  S&P 500
                                                                                                                          1,200

                                                                             Operation
                                                                              Twist
                                                          POMO &                                       Bernanke
                                                                                                     Jackson Hole         1,000
                                                            QE2

                                                                                                 Draghi w ill
                                                                                                 save Euro

                                                                                                                          800
                                                                                     Fed extends
                                                                                     Twist 6/20/12
                                QE 1

                                                                                                                          600
                          '08          '09                '10               '11                      '12
                                                                                                 ©FactSet Research Systems

                                               Source: FactSet Research System

 21
 Art Huprich
Additionally, and While I View Seasonality Factors as Secondary Indicators,
  Behind Price and Volume Indicators, the “Calendar” Has Moved Into a
     Historical “Sweet Spot” Relative to the DJIA’s Price Performance.
               % of Change
                     % of Change




                                   Source: Bespoke

22
  Art Huprich
  Besides a “Bernanke Put,” as Defined by Global Quantitative Easing (QE), and the Favorable
Seasonal Factor Highlighted on the Previous Page, if the Election Year Cycle Plays Out Anywhere
Close to History, a “Performance Put” Will Exist, and Likely Back Stop Any Major Declines Going
                                        Into Year-End.




                                                                            Current Year % Gain
                   Historic % Gain




                                           Source: Bespoke

23
   Art Huprich
If I Combine the Following Statements From Earlier in This Report: We Think the Environment for
  Financial Institutions is Going to Continue... “ and “With Housing’s Improvement, and a Friendly
  Fed Buying MBSs, Bank Stocks Have Been on a Tear...” I Think the Charts on the Next Two Pages
                          Suggest Having Exposure in the Financial Sector.
               Financials vs. S&P 500                                             Relative Strength
               04-Oct-2011 to 04-Oct-2012 (Daily)
                                                                                                    110



                                                                                                    108



                                                                                                    106



                                                                                                    104



                                                                                                    102



                                                                                                    100



                                                                                                    98



                                                                                                    96



                                                                                                    94
               Oct    Nov    Dec     Jan    Feb     Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul      Aug    Sep
                     S&P 500 / Financials -SEC
                                                                                  Source: FactSet Prices


 24
 Art Huprich
Selective Exposure Within the Financial Complex Makes Sense, Given the Chart Below.

           iShares DJ US Financial Services Index Fund vs. Peers
           Indexed Price Performance                                                                          Price (Indexed to 100)
                                                                                                                                       135



                                                                                                                                       130



                                                                                                                                       125



                                                                                                                                       120



                                                                                                                                       115



                                                                                                                                       110



                                                                                                                                       105



                                                                                                                                       100



                                                                                                                                       95


                                                              2012
                                                                                                                                       90
                Jan            Feb      Mar        Apr         May            Jun         Jul           Aug             Sep
                iShares DJ US Financial Services Index Fund        iShares DJ US Insurance Index Fund
                                                                                                                  Source: FactSet Prices



25
Art Huprich
 Consistent With Jeff’s Favorable Comments About the Housing complex and Scott’s Insights
Relative to Long-Term Interest Rates and Their Effect on the Housing Sector, Shown Below are
   Charts of the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) and the iShares Dow Jones U.S. Home
Construction (ITB) – While Both Would Benefit From a Low-Volume Pullback or Consolidation,
                                 Each are Bullish Long-Term.
      Closing Price
      04-Oct-2005 to 04-Oct-2012 (Daily)                                                            Price (Local Currency)
                                                                                                                             60




                                                                                                                             50




                                                                                                                             40




                                                                                                                             30




                                                                                                                             20




                                                                                                                             10




                                                                                                                             0
                   '06                     '07        '08            '09             '10      '11                  '12
           SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF             iShares DJ US Home Construction Index Fund
                                                                                                        Source: FactSet Prices



26
  Art Huprich
   Evidence Confirming Scott’s Comments That “Inflation-Adjusted Consumer Spending...Has
Continued to Trend at a Moderate Pace,” Can Be Seen Via the Bullishly Configured Price Trend of
                           the S&P Consumer Discretionary Sector.
               Closing Price
               04-Oct-2011 to 04-Oct-2012 (Daily)                            Price (Local Currency)
                                                                                                       400




                                                                                                       380




                                                                                                       360




                                                                                                       340




                                                                                                       320




                                                                                                       300




                                                                                                       280



                                                          2012
                                                                                                       260
               Oct    Nov    Dec    Jan     Feb     Mar    Apr   May   Jun     Jul      Aug    Sep
                     S&P 500 / Consumer Discretionary -SEC
                                                                                     Source: FactSet Prices



27
Important Investor Disclosures
       Raymond James & Associates (RJA) is a FINRA member firm and is responsible for the preparation and distribution of research created in
       the United States. Raymond James & Associates is located at The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg,
       FL 33716, (727) 567-1000. Non-U.S. affiliates, which are not FINRA member firms, include the following entities which are responsible for
       the creation and distribution of research in their respective areas; In Canada, Raymond James Ltd., Suite 2200, 925 West Georgia Street,
       Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2, (604) 659-8200; In Latin America, Raymond James Latin America, Ruta 8, km 17, 500, 91600 Montevideo,
       Uruguay, 00598 2 518 2033; In Europe, Raymond James Euro Equities, SAS, 40, rue La Boetie, 75008, Paris, France, +33 1 45 61 64 90.
       This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in
       any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or
       regulation. The securities discussed in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not an offer to sell
       or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not
       constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of
       individual clients. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital
       may occur. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
       Investing in securities of issuers organized outside of the U.S., including ADRs, may entail certain risks. The securities of non-U.S. issuers may
       not be registered with, nor be subject to the reporting requirements of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. There may be limited
       information available on such securities. Investors who have received this report may be prohibited in certain states or other jurisdictions
       from purchasing the securities mentioned in this report. Please ask your Financial Advisor for additional details.
       The information provided is as of the date above and subject to change, and it should not be deemed a recommendation to buy or sell
       any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such
       information is accurate or complete. Persons within the Raymond James family of companies may have information that is not available
       to the contributors of the information contained in this publication. Raymond James, including affiliates and employees, may execute
       transactions in the securities listed in this publication that may not be consistent with the ratings appearing in this publication.
       Additional information is available on request.


       Analyst Information
       Registration of Non-U.S. Analysts: The analysts listed on the front of this report who are not employees of Raymond James & Associates,
       Inc., are not registered/qualified as research analysts under FINRA rules, are not associated persons of Raymond James & Associates, Inc.,
       and are not subject to NASD Rule 2711 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with covered companies, public companies,
       and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
       Analyst Holdings and Compensation: Equity analysts and their staffs at Raymond James are compensated based on a salary and bonus
       system. Several factors enter into the bonus determination including quality and performance of research product, the analyst's success
       in rating stocks versus an industry index, and support effectiveness to trading and the retail and institutional sales forces. Other factors
       may include but are not limited to: overall ratings from internal (other than investment banking) or external parties and the general
       productivity and revenue generated in covered stocks. The covering analyst and/or research associate owns shares of the common
       stock of The Home Depot Inc.


       The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject securities. No part
       of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
       contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received compensation from any subject company in the last
       12 months.



28
     Ratings and Definitions
     Raymond James & Associates (U.S.) definitions
     Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the S&P 500 over the next six to 12 months.
     For higher yielding and more conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, a total return of at least 15% is expected to be realized
     over the next 12 months.
     Outperform (MO2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the S&P 500 over the next 12-18 months. For higher yielding and more
     conservative equities, such as REITs and certain MLPs, an Outperform rating is used for securities where we are comfortable with the relative
     safety of the dividend and expect a total return modestly exceeding the dividend yield over the next 12-18 months.
     Market Perform (MP3) Expected to perform generally in line with the S&P 500 over the next 12 months.
     Underperform (MU4) Expected to underperform the S&P 500 or its sector over the next six to 12 months and should be sold.
     Suspended (S) The rating and price target have been suspended temporarily. This action may be due to market events that made coverage
     impracticable, or to comply with applicable regulations or firm policies in certain circumstances, including when Raymond James may be
     providing investment banking services to the company. The previous rating and price target are no longer in effect for this security and should
     not be relied upon.



     In transacting in any security, investors should be aware that other securities in the Raymond James research coverage universe might carry a
     higher or lower rating. Investors should feel free to contact their Financial Advisor to discuss the merits of other available investments.

     Rating Distributions
                                                     Coverage Universe Rating Distribution                Investment Banking Distribution
                                                     RJA         RJL       RJ LatAm       RJEE         RJA          RJL      RJ LatAm       RJEE
     Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy)                53%          65%         30%          53%         15%          36%          0%           0%
     Market Perform (Hold)                          39%          31%         59%          31%          6%          19%          2%           0%
     Underperform (Sell)                             7%           4%         11%          16%          0%          50%          0%           0%




29
     Risk Factors

     Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability
     categories, is available at rjcapitalmarkets.com/Disclosures/index. Copies of research or Raymond James’ summary policies relating to
     research analyst independence can be obtained by contacting any Raymond James & Associates or Raymond James Financial Services
     office (please see raymondjames.com for office locations) or by calling 727-567-1000, toll free 800-237-5643 or sending a written
                                                                                           th
     request to the Equity Research Library, Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Tower 3, 6 Floor, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL
     33716.


     International securities involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible
     political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets.
     Small-cap stocks generally involve greater risks. Dividends are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Past performance may not be indicative
     of future results.


     Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of mutual funds carefully before investing. The
     prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds. The prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should
     be read carefully before investing.
     Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of an exchange-traded product carefully before
     investing. A prospectus which contains this and other information about these funds can be obtained by contacting your financial advisor.
     Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.




30
     For clients in the United Kingdom:
     For clients of Raymond James & Associates (London Branch) and Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document
     and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons
     who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FSA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment
     professionals) or 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000
     (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended) or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended
     to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is
     therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
     For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This report is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and
     is not intended for use by clients.
     For purposes of the Financial Services Authority requirements, this research report is classified as independent with respect to conflict of
     interest management. RJA, RJFI, and Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd. are authorised and regulated by the Financial Services
     Authority in the United Kingdom.
     For clients in France:
     This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed,
     being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in “Code Monétaire et Financier” and Règlement
     Général de l’Autorité des Marchés Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of
     persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be
     classified as Retail Clients.
     For institutional clients in the European Economic Area (EEA) outside of the United Kingdom:
     This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be
     submitted.
     For Canadian clients:
     Review of Material Operations: The Analyst and/or Associate is required to conduct due diligence on, and where deemed appropriate
     visit, the material operations of a subject company before initiating research coverage. The scope of the review may vary depending on
     the complexity of the subject company’s business operations.
     This report is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements.




31
     For Latin American clients:
     Registration of Brazil-based Analysts: In accordance with Regulation #483 issued by the Brazil Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) in
     October 2010, all lead Brazil-based Research Analysts writing and distributing research are CNPI certified as required by Art. 1 of APIMEC’s
     Code of Conduct (www.apimec.com.br/supervisao/codigodeconduta). They abide by the practices and procedures of this regulation as well as
     internal procedures in place at Raymond James Brasil S.A. A list of research analysts accredited with the APIMEC can be found on the webpage
     (www.apimec.com.br/ certificacao/Profissionais Certificados).
     Non-Brazil-based analysts writing Brazil research and or making sales efforts with the same are released from these APIMEC requirements as
     stated in Art. 20 of CVM Instruction #483, but abide by recognized Codes of Conduct, Ethics and Practices that comply with Articles 17, 18, and
     19 of CVM Instruction #483.


     Proprietary Rights Notice: By accepting a copy of this report, you acknowledge and agree as follows:
     This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by
     Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate or
     commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic or any other form, in any manner, without the prior
     express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose.
     releasable resear ch
                                                                                                                                                  This is RJA client




     This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret or other
     intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec.501 et seq, provides for civil and
     criminal penalties for copyright infringement.




32

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:18834
posted:10/10/2012
language:Latin
pages:32