PRICIP flyer 02152007

NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center • Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products 1601 East West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848-1601 Phone: 808-944-7453 Fax: 808-944-7499 PRICIP Image courtesy of NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Pacific Storm Facts: ♦ In 1992 the island of Kauai in Hawaii was hit by Hurricane Iniki. The estimate of the physical damage was $2.5 billion. Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them, pose a threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific. ♦ To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and SuperTyphoon correspondingly enhance their Pongsona resiliency), decision-makers in struck the coastal communities need island of Guam timely access to accurate on December 8, information that affords them 2002. With over Hurricane Iniki courtesy of an opportunity to plan and Photo courtesy of the American Samoa Coastal $700 million in NASA Management Program respond accordingly. This damages, the includes information about the potential for coastal inundation and erosion typhoon was reportedly the most at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the long-term costly disaster in the entire U.S. climatological context of this information. during the year 2002. In October 2004, a powerful “explosively deepening” storm moved up the entire Alaska west coast, causing $30 million in damages in an area with only 50,000 people. A 10.5-foot water level surge went right over the sea wall at Nome and catastrophic erosion at many villages sent buildings into the sea, damaged airports, and contaminated drinking water. A “once in a hundred year” event, Nome was again flooded by a 10-foot surge in September 2005. ♦ The Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products (PRICIP) project will improve our understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity—“storminess”—within the Pacific region and develop a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors including water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. PRICIP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three thematic areas: strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. It involves analyses of historical records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time Nome boat harbor during a normal day, courtesy of John Lingaas, WFO Fairbanks observations to NOAA’s National Weather Service put the current weather into a longer-term perspective. This effort is a regional path finding activity towards the development of a national comprehensive coastal climatology program. Image of Hurricane Heta in 2004 courtesy of NOAA’s National Weather Service Last updated 2/15/07 The same view during flooding in 2004, courtesy of Jerry Steiger, WSO Nome NOAA’s National Weather Service NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center • Pacific Region Integrated Climatology Information Products 1601 East West Road, Honolulu, Hawaii 96848-1601 Phone: 808-944-7453 Fax: 808-944-7499 PRICIP More Pacific Storm Facts: ♦ March 2006 brought heavy rains to the main Hawaiian Islands, which led to flooding and landslides: a deadly dam break in northern Kauai, and a major sewage spill in Honolulu's Waikiki district. Record rainfall totals were reached in many areas of the state including Mount Waialeale on Kauai (one of the wettest places on earth), recorded its second wettest March on record with 93.71 inches of rain. Strong Winds, Heavy Rains, High Seas Theme-specific data integration and product development teams have been formed to carry out this work. These teams are comprised of recognized agency and university-based experts in the area of climate-related processes that govern storminess. They include representatives from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), Center for Operational This is a graphic demonstrating how tide Products and Services (CO-OPS), station data and satellite data can be Coastal Services Center (CSC), National integrated to show the relationship of the time history of monthly mean sea level anomalies Weather Service (NWS), and the over a portion of the Pacific basin. National Marine Fisheries Figure courtesy of the Service (NMFS), as well as the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center University of Hawaii, University of Alaska, University of Guam, Oregon State University, and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Team members met at an Expert Teams Project Planning Workshop held in San Francisco on June 20-21, 2006. This workshop provided an opportunity to share knowledge, craft detailed work plans, and establish roles and responsibilities for exploring the causes and consequences of storminess in the Pacific. Team leads met again as a Program Integration Team on December 13-14, 2006 to discuss tailored “storminess”-related information products and decision support tools being considered for development, as well as to refine and integrate theme area work plans leading to the development of a derived data product suite. Photo courtesy of NOAA Image of the March 2006 low pressure system in the Pacific courtesy of NOAA’s National Weather Service ♦ Each theme team is delineating trends such as annual rates of change, and calculating annual, seasonal, and monthly event magnitudes, frequencies and durations. Theme teams are also delineating event return recurrence intervals via Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) analyses and will correlate event characteristics with regional climatological indices (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation). These analyses utilize key observing system data sets including NOAA’s Integrated Surface Hourly (ISH) mean sea level pressure and wind speed data; the Global Historical Climate ♦ In Hawaii, more Network (GHCN) precipitation dataset; the National Water Level lives are lost Observing Network (NWLON) tide gauge records; the National Photo courtesy of the American Samoa annually to high Coastal Management Program surf than any Data Buoy Center (NDBC) wave buoy data and the U.S. Army other weather-related event. On Corps of Engineers Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP) buoy data. one day in June 2003, the biggest south swell of the season closed the entrance to the Ala Wai Yacht Harbor, tossed boats and enthralled wave riders as lifeguards on Oahu performed 350 rescues at Waikiki and Ala Moana beaches and assisted another 600 ocean goers. Storms with winds over 100 mph and swells over 20 ft. hit Alaska between 1997 and 1999 claiming lives and damaging boats. During January 21-24, 1999, the Coast Guard hoisted more than a dozen crew members off eight fishing vessels. Later that year five men were killed when a 96-foot crabbing vessel capsized off St. Paul Island. In American Samoa, the heaviest rainfall in nearly 20 years occurred during May 18–20, 2003. The territory had 10–15 inches of rainfall, most of it in 2–3 hours. Four people were killed by mudslides, one person was seriously injured, and three people were rescued from two homes buried by a mudslide. The northern and central north Pacific, which includes Alaska and Hawaii, have been targeted as initial priority areas. Work will be carried out in other areas as resources permit to address storminess throughout the Pacific Region including the U.S. West Coast as well as Probability of Occurrence (%) Grays Harbor Buoy 1993-2000 American Flag and U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island jurisdictions. This is a plot of the probability of occurrence of waves of different heights and directions observed at the Grays Harbor, Washington buoy. It shows that the most frequently occurring wave is approximately 1-meter high and from a compass bearing of approximately 290 degrees (the single red dot in the center left of the figure). This is an example of the types products that will be created via PRICIP to describe wave climatologies, which will form the basis for the development of tailored products that can be used by mitigation planners and resource managers to assess relative risk. Figure courtesy of P. Ruggiero, Oregon Last updated 2/15/07 ♦