Docstoc

Global Commercial Property Survey

Document Sample
Global Commercial Property Survey Powered By Docstoc
					   RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                                         Q4 2010



   Global recovery boosts tenant expansion in 75% of markets
    • Outlook for property in Non-Japan Asia and Latin America most                    % net balance                  Rental expectations                             rents expected
                                                                                100
        positive, though improvements are reported in Russia and                                                                                                          to rise

        Germany
                                                                                 75               2010 4th Qtr
    •   Rent expectations turn positive for the first time in this
                                                                                                  2011 1st Qtr
        recovery in France and Germany, while there were rental                  50
        improvements in much of Emerging Europe
    •   ‘Peripheral’ European countries Portugal and Spain see a                 25
        further deterioration in sentiment, while the occupier recovery
        stalls in the UK                                                          0


    The RICS Global Commercial Property Survey for Q4 suggests that,             -25
    while there remains evidence that emerging markets are generally
    outperforming the more established markets, there are some notable           -50
    cases where the divide is closing. Countries where respondents were
    most upbeat were, once again, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and                -75
    Brazil, though there were marked improvements in Germany and
    Russia. Market conditions generally appear worse in ‘peripheral’            -100                                                                                        rents
                                                                                         US      Japan     UK    Germany   Brazil   India   UAE        HK   China    AUS expected
    European regions, the UK and Japan.                                                                                                                                     to fall


    Occupier markets have firmed, with 75% of the reporting countries           may mean we are starting to see a stabilisation in market conditions
    indicating greater demand from tenants than in the previous 3 month         following 2 years of persistent declines.
    period. Significantly, respondents suggest that rental expectations are
    picking up; expectations for rents improved compared to the previous        Elsewhere, strong results came from Russia and Germany as both
    quarter with just under two thirds of countries now expecting rents to      countries saw the fortunes of their respective real estate markets
    rise in Q1 2011.                                                            bounce on more fertile economic conditions. Both occupier and
                                                                                investment markets improved markedly in Russia, while in Germany it
    Worth noting are Western European countries where rental                    was the turnaround in capital values that was most prominent;
    expectations have turned positive for the first time in this recovery.      improving from +19 to +45. The pick up in rental expectations was more
    Indeed, Germany, Austria, France and Switzerland have all seen a            modest as it moved up from -4 to +8. Respondents also suggested that
    turnaround this quarter. Meanwhile rental improvements have been            conditions are becoming more favourable in Poland.
    seen in much of Emerging Europe, with Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania
    the exceptions. The pick up in rental expectations seen in Europe is        Results from China and Hong Kong suggest that, despite the ongoing
    more modest compared to that in Asia and Latin America; the highest         attempts from authorities to cool the market, activity remains buoyant.
    net balance was recorded in Peru, with Central America leading              Both rents and capital values increased at a similar or better pace than
    Argentina, China and Brazil. Rental expectations improved markedly in       last quarter.
    Russia, where the net balance shot up from +38 in Q3 to +64.
                                                                             Meanwhile, sentiment continues to deteriorate in Japan as property
    On the investment side, capital value expectations were once again       professionals expect further rental declines in the coming quarter. The
    strongest in Latin American countries and Asian countries ex-Japan.      mood among respondents in the UK is, on balance, still downbeat but
    Peru and Argentina rank above China and Singapore, with respondents there are signs that tenant demand is now stabilising.
    in Russia and Hong Kong also indicating strong growth in capital values.
                                                                                Moreover, ‘peripheral’ European countries such as Portugal, Ireland,
    Interestingly, this survey has seen a turnaround in US investor             Spain and Greece are seeing the net balance drop for most indicators
    sentiment as capital value expectations picked up and moved into            as debt burdens remain most pronounced.
    positive territory. Indeed, the improvement from -6 to +15 is a move that


                           Global commercial property expected capital values for Q1 2011

            US             Japan         UK             Germany       Brazil            India               UAE                HK                 China             AUS
2009 Q3   -53           -63        -8          -16         81          24                                   -36        43                         35                -42
2009 Q4   -54           -86        -1          -37         59          11                                   -56        22                         46                11
2010 Q1   -38           -39        1           -20         67          24                                   -61        77                         39                22
2010 Q2   -17           -33        -10         -9          52          33                                   -67        24                         38                29
2010 Q3   -6            -30        -11         19          87          28                                   -49        78                         54                43
2010 Q4   15            -44        -18         45          53          9                                    -33        72                         81                23
*Balance = Proportion of surveyors reporting a rise minus those reporting a fall (if                        30% reported a rise
and 5% reported a fall the unadjusted balance will be 25%)
Total number of survey contributor offices = 410




              To receive a free copy of this report on the day of release please email ogilmartin@rics.org
                        To be put on For live updates follow us on twitter at www.twitter.com/ricseconomics
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                   Q4 2010

Country statistics - Expectations for Q1 2011

Rental expectations for Q1 ranked by net balance scores


                   -100         -80           -60          -40             -20   0   20   40   60   80     100

              P eru
  Central A merica

       Ho ng Ko ng
         A rgentina
             China

            Russia
        Singapo re
             B razil

        P hilippines
        Venezuela
          Thailand

            P o land
            Ghana
            Turkey

           Ukraine
   Czech Republic
          A ustralia
           M exico

      So uth Ko rea
            Nigeria
           Canada

               India
       Switzerland
               Italy

      Scandinavia
            A ustria
          M alaysia

          Germany
            France
      So uth A frica

           B elgium
                US
           Hungary
      Luxembo urg

                UK
           Cro atia
      Netherlands

            Cyprus
          P o rtugal
           B ulgaria

          Ro mania
      New Zealand
               UA E

           Vietnam
             Japan
Republic o f Ireland

             Spain
            Greece


Central America is made up of Panama, Nicaragua, Honduras and Costa Rica
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                     Q4 2010

Country statistics - Expectations for Q1 2011

Capital value expectations for Q1 ranked by net balance scores


                    -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80    100

               P eru
   Central A merica

          A rgentina
              China

         Singapo re

             Turkey
             Russia
        Ho ng Ko ng

       Luxembo urg

             P o land
            M exico

              B razil
             A ustria

    Czech Republic

         Venezuela
            Canada
           Germany

         P hilippines

           Thailand
            Hungary
           M alaysia

            Vietnam

           A ustralia
             Ghana

       Scandinavia
       So uth Ko rea

                 US

                India
             France

       So uth A frica

                Italy

             Nigeria
          Ro mania

        Switzerland

            B elgium
                 UK
             Cyprus

       Netherlands

            B ulgaria
       New Zealand

                UA E
            Ukraine

              Japan

 Republic o f Ireland
              Spain
           P o rtugal

            Cro atia

             Greece
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                     Q4 2010

Country statistics - Reported available space Q4

Available space in Q4 ranked by net balance scores


                    -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100

             Greece

            Vietnam

       Netherlands
             Turkey

            B ulgaria

   Central A merica

              Spain

                UA E

            Cro atia

 Republic o f Ireland
             Ghana

           P o rtugal

           M alaysia

              China

             A ustria

            B elgium
             Cyprus

                India

         Venezuela

          A rgentina

           Thailand

       New Zealand

              Japan
             France

       So uth A frica

                 US

                Italy

             Nigeria

             Russia
            Hungary

                 UK

         Singapo re

           Germany

       Scandinavia

            Ukraine
            Canada

            M exico

       So uth Ko rea

        Switzerland

           Ro mania

       Luxembo urg

    Czech Republic
             P o land

              B razil

           A ustralia

        Ho ng Ko ng

         P hilippines

               P eru
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                  Q4 2010

Country statistics - Investment transactions in Q4

Investment transaction activity in Q4 ranked by net balance scores

                  -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40       60        80          100
        Singapo re

           Canada

            P o land

             China
              P eru

      So uth Ko rea

          Germany

           M exico
         A rgentina

             B razil
      Scandinavia

          M alaysia

            Turkey
       Ho ng Ko ng

                US

            Nigeria

   Czech Republic
      New Zealand

          A ustralia

            France

      So uth A frica
           Ukraine

            Russia

        P hilippines

           Hungary
               India

           Cro atia

      Luxembo urg

             Japan
      Netherlands

          Thailand

        Venezuela                                          Inves tm ent trans actions
            Cyprus
           Vietnam                                         Inves tm ent bidders per
                                                           property
                UK

       Switzerland
  Central A merica

            Ghana

               UA E

         Ro mania
Republic o f Ireland

               Italy

             Spain

           B ulgaria
           B elgium

          P o rtugal

            A ustria

            Greece
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                     Q4 2010

Country statistics - Stock of property in Q4

Change in the stock of investment property to purchase in Q4


                    -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80    100

             Greece

             Nigeria

         P hilippines
             Turkey

           Thailand

            B ulgaria

   Central A merica

           M alaysia

       Scandinavia
            Ukraine

             P o land

           P o rtugal

           A ustralia

            B elgium

       New Zealand
       So uth Ko rea

                UA E

         Venezuela

                India

                Italy
          A rgentina

             Cyprus

       Luxembo urg

              Spain

            Vietnam

              China
       Netherlands

                 US

             Russia

            Hungary

       So uth A frica

           Germany
            Canada

            Cro atia

    Czech Republic

             France
        Ho ng Ko ng

              Japan
            M exico

          Ro mania

        Switzerland

                 UK
              B razil

         Singapo re
 Republic o f Ireland

             A ustria

             Ghana

               P eru
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                                        Q4 2010

Regional statistics - Developed Asia / Australasia


  Tenant Demand                                                                  Available space
            -100       -80    -60    -40    -20   0    20   40   60   80   100              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100


    Australia                                                                       Australia



  Hong Kong                                                                       Hong Kong



      Japan                                                                           Japan




  Singapore                                                                        Singapore




New Zealand                                                                      New Zealand



                                                                                 South Korea
 South Korea




 Inducements                                                                     Rental Expectations
                -100    -80    -60    -40   -20    0   20   40   60   80   100              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100


     Australia                                                                      Australia



   Hong Kong                                                                      Hong Kong




        Japan                                                                          Japan



                                                                                   Singapore
    Singapore


                                                                                 New Zealand
 New Zealand


                                                                                 South Korea
  South Korea




Key for country charts                            Q3
                                                  Q4
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                             Q4 2010

Regional statistics - Americas


 Tenant Demand                                                           Available space
        -100       -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100           -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100



Argentina                                                                Argentina



                                                                            Brazil
   Brazil


                                                                           Mexico
  Mexico


                                                                             Peru
    Peru


                                                                          Canada
 Canada

                                                                               US
      US




Inducements                                                              Rental Expectations
            -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100           -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100



Argentina                                                                Argentina



                                                                            Brazil
    Brazil


                                                                           Mexico
  Mexico


                                                                             Peru
     Peru


                                                                          Canada
  Canada

                                                                               US
      US
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                               Q4 2010

Regional statistics - Emerging Asia


 Tenant Demand                                                          Available space
           -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100



   China                                                                   China




    India                                                                   India



Malaysia
                                                                        Malaysia



Thailand
                                                                        Thailand



 Vietnam
                                                                         Vietnam




Inducements                                                             Rental Expectations
       -100       -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100          -100       -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80    100



  China                                                                   China




                                                                           India
   India



                                                                        Malaysia
Malaysia


                                                                        Thailand
Thailand


                                                                        Vietnam

Vietnam
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                                                   Q4 2010

Regional statistics - Western Europe


 Tenant Demand                                                                  Available space
                   -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100                     -100        -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100

            Austria                                                                        Austria

           Belgium                                                                        Belgium

            Cyprus                                                                         Cyprus

            France                                                                         France

          Germany                                                                        Germany

               Italy                                                                           Italy

       Netherlands                                                                    Netherlands

           Portugal                                                                       Portugal

Republic of Ireland                                                             Republic of Ireland

             Spain                                                                          Spain

       Switzerland                                                                     Switzerland

                UK                                                                             UK

      Scandinavia                                                                     Scandinavia

           Greece                                                                          Greece




Inducements                                                                     Rental Expectations
                  -100    -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100                          -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100

           Austria                                                                           Austria

          Belgium                                                                           Belgium

           Cyprus                                                                            Cyprus

           France                                                                            France

         Germany                                                                           Germany

               Italy                                                                            Italy

      Netherlands                                                                       Netherlands

          Portugal                                                                         Portugal
Republic of Ireland                                                              Republic of Ireland

            Spain                                                                             Spain
       Switzerland                                                                      Switzerland
               UK                                                                                UK
      Scandinavia                                                                      Scandinavia
           Greece                                                                           Greece
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                                    Q4 2010

Regional statistics - Emerging Europe


 Tenant Demand                                                             Available space
              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100                -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100


                                                                                 Bulgaria
       Bulgaria

                                                                           Czech Republic
Czech Republic

                                                                                 Hungary
       Hungary
                                                                                  Poland
        Poland
                                                                                 Romania

      Romania
                                                                                  Russia

        Russia
                                                                                   Turkey


        Turkey                                                                    Ukraine


       Ukraine




Inducements                                                                Rental Expectations
              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100                -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100


      Bulgaria                                                                   Bulgaria


Czech Republic                                                             Czech Republic


      Hungary                                                                    Hungary


       Poland                                                                     Poland


      Romania                                                                    Romania


       Russia                                                                     Russia


                                                                                   Turkey
        Turkey

                                                                                  Ukraine
       Ukraine
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                               Q4 2010

Regional statistics - Africa and Middle East


 Tenant Demand                                                          Available space
           -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100



                                                                        South Africa
South Africa




                                                                               UAE
       UAE




                                                                             Ghana
     Ghana




                                                                             Nigeria
     Nigeria




Inducements                                                             Rental Expectations
           -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60   80   100              -100   -80   -60   -40   -20   0   20   40   60    80   100




South Africa                                                            South Africa




       UAE                                                                     UAE




                                                                             Ghana
     Ghana




                                                                             Nigeria
     Nigeria
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                           Q4 2010

Survey methodology


RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
RICS’ Global Commercial Property Survey is a quarterly guide to the
developing trends in the commercial property investment and occupier
market.

This edition details market conditions for the fourth quarter of
2010 based on information collected from leading international real
estate organisations and local firms.

Methodology

Survey questionnaires were sent to real estate organisations on 3rd
December 2010, with responses received up until the 10th of January 2011.
Respondents were asked to compare conditions over the latest
three months with the previous three months. A total of 410 company
responses were received.

Responses have been amalgamated across the three real estate
sub-sectors of offices, retail and industrial property at a country level,
to form diffusion indices for the commercial market as a whole.

Contact details

This publication has been produced by RICS Economics. For economic and
statistical enquiries regarding this publication, please contact:

Matthew Edmonds
RICS Economist
T +44 (0)20 7695 1684 E medmonds@rics.org

Oliver Gilmartin
RICS Senior Economist
T +44 (0)20 7334 3847 E ogilmartin@rics.org

Taking part in the RICS Global Property Survey

If you wish to participate in the quarterly survey, please email
jguilfoyle@rics.org to register your details. Please provide
your name, company details and the location(s) you wish to cover
within the email or register online at www.rics.org/globalproperty

RICS Global Commercial Property Survey
Disclaimer
This document is intended as a means for debate and discussion and should
not be relied on as legal or professional advice. Whilst every reasonable
effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the contents, no warranty is
made with regard to that content. Data, information or any other material
may not be accurate and there may be other more recent material
elsewhere. RICS will have no responsibility for any errors or omissions.
RICS recommends you seek professional, legal or technical advice where
necessary. RICS cannot accept any liability for any loss or damage suffered
by any person as a result of the editorial content, or by any person acting or
refraining to act as a result of the material included.
RICS Global Commercial Property Survey                                                                                                      Q4 2010

Subscription information and contributor enquiries

 The Quarterly Global Commercial Property Survey is available from the RICS
 web site - www.rics.org/economics along with other surveys covering the
 housing market, residential lettings, commercial property, construction
 activity, the farmland market and arts and antiques.



 For access to city level agents’ comments and contributor details please go to
 the following web address.

 www.rics.org/GPScomments2010q4


 Become a member of RICS

 If you would like to find out more about becoming a member
 of RICS, please visit www.rics.org/professional




                                                                                                     The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
                                                                                                     Parliament Square
                                                                                                     London SW1P 3AD

                                                                                                     T +44 (0)20 7222 7000
RICS represents some 100,000 members worldwide. These professionals provide                          F +44 (0)20 7334 3795
expert advice on land, property, construction and the associated environmental issues.
An independent organisation, RICS acts in the public interest, upholding standards of                economics@rics.org
competence and integrity among its members and providing impartial, authoritative
advice on issues affecting business and society.                                                     www.rics.org




RICS UK (press office)                  RICS Europe                          RICS Americas                          RICS India
T +44(0)20 7695 1682                    T+32(2) 733 1019                     T +1 212 847 7400                      48 & 49 Centrum Plaza
sthornton@rics.org                      ricseurope@rics.org                  ricsamericas@rics.org                  Sector Road, Sector 53
                                                                                                                    Gurgaon - 122002, India
RICS Asia Pacific                       RICS Oceania                         RICS Middle East & Africa              T +91 124 459 5400
T +852 2537 7117                        T +61(2)92162333                     T +971(4)375 3074                      F +91 124 459 5402
ricsasiapacific@rics.org                info@rics.org.au                     sluthria@rics.org                      ricsindia@rics.org

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:2
posted:10/10/2012
language:Catalan
pages:14