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Daily Commodity Report

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Daily Commodity Report Powered By Docstoc
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  Daily Commodity Report

                   September 18, 2012                                             www.adityatrading.com
News Highlights:

 Manufacturing activity in the New York region contracted at the
  fastest pace since April 2009 in September 2012, signaling a
  deepening slowdown in the world’s largest economy, dimming
  the demand outlook for leading industrial commodities, dragging
  down domestic crude oil and copper futures on Monday. The
  Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell
  to -10.41 this month from -5.85 in August, with a reading less
  than zero signaling contraction in manufacturing over the
  previous month.

 Profit-booking across major commodities on Monday following
  last week’s impressive rally also dragged down crude oil, copper
  and gold futures. Last week’s rally was driven by the
  announcement of fresh stimulus by the US Federal Reserve.

 Spanish ten-year borrowing costs climbed past six per cent on
  Monday, raising concerns that Europe’s fourth largest economy
  may need a bailout, deepening worries over the region’s debt
  turmoil, and dimming the demand outlook for leading industrial
  commodities, weighing on crude oil and copper futures on
  Monday.

 Speculation heightened that China may not undertake large-scale
  policy easing measures needed to bolster the pace of growth in
  the world’s second largest economy, dimming the demand
  outlook for top industrial commodities, weighing on copper
  futures on Monday.




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Market Overview
                                                                                                          Commodity Indices at MCX
The domestic commodity markets closed on a bearish note on Monday as investors
                                                                                               Indices       Close                PCP               %chg
indulged in profit-booking across most major commodities following last week’s
                                                                                            MCXCOMDEX      3973.19           4010.36                (0.93)
impressive rally when the Federal Reserve’s decision to undertake fresh monetary
                                                                                            MCXMETAL       5442.59           5465.84                (0.43)
stimulus boosted sentiment. A deepening slump in manufacturing activity in the US
darkened the demand outlook for leading industrial commodities in the world’s               MCXENERGY      3567.88           3618.04                (1.39)
largest economy, dragging down prices. Rising tensions between Japan and China and          MCXAGRI        2639.62           2686.11                (1.73)
deepening worries over Europe’s debt turmoil also added to the bearish sentiment.
                                                                                                                   Index at NCDEX
All of the four indices at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) ended in the negative            Index         Close                PCP               %chg
terrain . MCXCOMDEX closed at 3,973.19 (down by 0.93 per cent) and MCXAGRI                    Dhaanya      2681.57           2686.79                (0.19)
closed at 2,639.62 (down by 1.73 per cent), while MCXENERGY closed at 3,567.88
(down by 1.39 per cent) and MCXMETAL closed at 5,442.59 (down by 0.43 per cent).
                                                                                                            Top Gainers at MCX
MCXAGRI was the top loser in the domestic commodity indices on Monday as Potato             Commodity     Expiry      Close (`)     PCP (`)        % Chg
futures fell as traders exited their positions in the agri-commodity amid sluggish          Nickel        Sep         975.40        957.87         1.83
physical demand for potato in the domestic spot market. More than adequate                  Nickel Mini   Sep         975.20        957.96         1.80
                                                                                            Cotton        Feb         16800.00      16660.06       0.84
physical supplies amid fresh arrivals from the major potato producing belt of Uttar
                                                                                            Gold Petal    Oct         3335.00       3319.07        0.48
Pradesh, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal also put downward pressure on
                                                                                            Lead Mini     Sep         120.90        120.85         0.04
Potato futures.

MCXENERGY fell as Natural Gas futures slumped after mild weather forecasts in the                            Top Losers at MCX
US dimmed the demand outlook for the gas which is used for heating purposes.                Commodity     Expiry      Close (`)     PCP (`)        % Chg
Crude Oil futures fell sharply on Monday as investors booked profits in the fuel at         Potato        Apr          720.00        750.00        (4.00)
existing levels, following the recent rally in crude oil futures, which was driven by the   Cardamom      Nov         1005.90       1047.80        (4.00)
announcement of additional monetary stimulus in the US economy. Sentiment                   Natural Gas   Sep          155.60        159.60        (2.51)
weakened after a Federal Reserve report showed that manufacturing activity in the           Brent Crude   Oct         6160.00       6295.00        (2.14)
New York region shrank this month at the fastest pace since April 2009, dashing the         Mentha Oil    Oct         1310.00       1336.20        (1.96)
demand outlook for the fuel in the world’s largest crude oil consuming nation. The
Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general economic index fell to -10.41 this month                        Top Gainers at NCDEX
from -5.85 in August, with a reading less than zero signaling contraction in
                                                                                            Commodity     Expiry      Close(`)          PCP (`)    % Chg
manufacturing over the previous month.Worries over Europe’s debt crises deepened
                                                                                            Castor Seed   Sep          3696.00           3553.16    4.02
after Spainish borrowing costs surged past 6 per cent on Monday, signaling a bearish        Chilli        Sep          4902.00           4803.99    2.04
outlook for fuel demand.                                                                    Coriander     Oct          4448.00           4370.21    1.78
                                                                                            Jeera         Sep         14280.00          14045.44    1.67
On the baseMetals front, Copper futures fell amid concerns that China, the largest          Chana         Sep          4591.00           4535.22    1.23
global copper consuming nation may refrain from undertaking large-scale policy
easing measures needed to boost growth, dashing the demand prospects for the base
                                                                                                            Top Losers at NCDEX
metal. The worst diplomatic crises between China and Japan since 2005 threatened
to put their trade ties in jeopardy, dimming the demand outlook for the base metal. A       Commodity     Expiry      Close (`)     PCP (`)        % Chg
slump in US manufacturing and deepening eurozone worries further dashed the base            Potato        Sep          1000.10       1040.58        (3.89)
metal’s demand outlook.                                                                     Maize Feed    Nov          1297.00       1341.96        (3.35)
                                                                                            Kapas         Oct           947.00        975.99        (2.97)
                                                                                            Soya Bean     Feb          3717.00       3783.98        (1.77)
On the precious metals front, Gold futures fell in the domestic market on Monday
                                                                                            Crude Oil     Sep          5250.00       5335.91        (1.61)
amid profit-booking by investors in the precious metal at existing levels, driven by
weak physical demand for gold in the domestic market.

On Monday, the top traded volumes at the MCX were Crude Oil for September 2012
contract at 174,200 lots, Silver Micro for November 2012 contract at 138,478 lots,
Silver Mini for November 2012 contract at 111,471 lots, Copper for November 2012
contract at 93,405 lots and Nickel for September 2012 contract at 92,429 lots.


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                                                    Fundamental Market Overview
                                                           MCX Crude Oil (`/barrel)
Contract                 Close           Open             High       Low          PCP                   % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
September, 2012           5274            5338             5354            5121           5334           -1.12                    174200
October, 2012             5294            5362             5384            5186           5366           -1.34                     33116

                                   Crude Oil futures fell by 1.12 per cent in the domestic market on Monday as investors booked profits in the fuel at
                                   existing levels, following the recent rally in crude oil futures, which was driven by the announcement of additional
                                   monetary stimulus in the US economy. Sentiment weakened further due to high selling activity by the investors on
                                   worries about a looming release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve as tension mounts over Iran’s nuclear
                                   programme. Moreover, prices also fell as a stronger dollar, which makes dollar-traded crude oil expensive to
                                   investors using other currencies, also kept buyers out of the market. The U.S. dollar index, a measure of the value of
Crude oil futures fell in
                                   the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, closed 0.21 per cent higher at 79.010 on the Inter-
the domestic market on
                                   Continental Exchange (ICE). Prices also declined after Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that Empire State
profit booking, strong
                                   manufacturing activity fell more than expected to a seasonally adjusted -10.4, from -5.8 in the preceding month
dollar, downbeat US data
                                   indicating that the U.S. economy could be in need of support which in turn dampened demand outlook for the fuel.

                                   The losses in the fuel were curbed on account of conflicts in North Africa and the Middle East due to anti-Western
                                   demonstrations over a film mocking Islam's Prophet Mohammad and the continued dispute between the West and
                                   Iran's nuclear programme. At the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), crude oil futures for September contract closed
                                   at `5,274 per barrel, down by 1.12 per cent, after opening at `5,338 against the previous closing of `5,334. It
                                   touched the intra-day low of `5,121 per barrel till the closing.




Currently, Crude futures for the October 2012 contract in the overseas market are trading at $96.90 per barrel, up by 0.29 per cent at 9.50 AM IST.


                                                            MCX Gold(`/10 grams)
Contract                Close           Open              High       Low         PCP                     % Chg               Volume (In Lots)
October, 2012            31811           31842            31931           31751           31880           -0.22                     28412
December, 2012           32141           32175            32269           32082           32227           -0.27                      3317

                                   Gold futures fell by 0.22 per cent at the domestic markets on Monday as a result of profit booking by the traders
                                   after the precious metal surged due to the Federal Reserve's announcement of a third round of quantitative easing
                                   measures. Sentiment weakened further as investors exited positions in the precious metal in the midst of sluggish
                                   physical demand for the bullion in the domestic market. Record high prices have dented physical demand for the
                                   precious metal in the world’s second largest gold buying nation. Moreover, a stronger dollar, which makes dollar-
                                   traded gold expensive to investors using other currencies, also kept buyers out of the market. The U.S. dollar index,
  Gold futures fell in the         a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, closed 0.21 per cent
  domestic market on profit        higher at 79.010 on the Inter-Continental Exchange (ICE).
  booking, strong dollar,
  weak demand                      However, losses in the yellow metal were curbed due to some buying activity as India celebrates the Ganesh
                                   festival this week, which will be followed by Dussehra in October and Diwali in November and buying gold during
                                   festivals is considered auspicious. At the MCX, gold futures for October 2012 contract, at MCX, closed at `31,811
                                   per 10 grams, down by 0.22 per cent after opening at `31,842 against the previous closing price of `31,880. It
                                   touched the intra-day low of `31,751.

                                   Currently, Gold futures for the December 2012 contract in the overseas market is trading at $1,758.1 per ounce,
                                   down by 0.71 per cent at 9.50 AM IST




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                                                                     MCX Copper (`/Kg)
Contract                       Close          Open                 High             Low               PCP        % Chg            Volume (In Lots)
November, 2012               453.15              456                456            451.85          456.70         -0.77                  93405
February, 2013               457.95           460.45               460.45          456.60          461.50         -0.77                    7332

                                        Copper futures ended lower in the domestic market on Monday after Federal Reserve Bank of New York said that
                                        Empire State manufacturing activity fell more than expected to a seasonally adjusted -10.4, from -5.8 in the
                                        preceding month indicating that the U.S. economy could be in need of support which in turn dampened demand
                                        outlook for the industrial metal as copper is widely used in manufacturing and construction and investors look to
                                        such economic data for clues about future demand for the metal. Sentiment weakened further as a stronger dollar,
                                        which makes dollar-traded copper expensive to investors using other currencies, also kept buyers out of the
                                        market. The U.S. dollar index, a measure of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign
Copper futures fell in the
                                        currencies, closed 0.21 per cent higher at 79.010 on the Inter-Continental Exchange (ICE). Prices also fell due to the
domestic       market     on
                                        surge in the copper stockpiles at the London Metal Exchange (LME) on account of the weak demand for the
downbeat US data, strong
                                        commodity. LME copper stocks rose by 475 metric tonnes to 2,16,700 metric tonnes as on September 17, 2012.
dollar, rising stockpiles

                                        However, losses in the base metal were curbed in the midst of speculation that China will do more to stimulate
                                        growth and improve demand in the world’s second largest economy and consumer of copper. On the MCX, Copper
                                        futures for November 2012 contract closed at `453.15 per 1 kg, down by 0.77 per cent, after opening at `456
                                        against the previous closing price of `456.70. It touched the intra-day low of `451.85 till the closing.

                                        Currently, Copper futures for the December 2012 contract in the overseas market, are trading at $3.7830 per
                                        pound, down by 0.24 per cent at 9.50 AM IST.




                                                             Today’s Economic Calendar
   Date          Time (IST)                        Economic Data                 Country                            Forecast                  Prior
 18/09/12         06:00 PM                          Current Account                              US                    -126B                  -137B
                  06:30 PM                     TIC Long-Term Purchases                           US                    37.3B                   9.3B
                  07:30 PM                    NAHB Housing Market Index                          US                      38                     37



                                                  LME statistics as on September 17, 2012 (In US$/ton)*
Symbol                                 Lead         Aluminum           Copper          Nickel           Tin                                  Zinc
Cash Buyer                         2242.50               2161.50            8292.50            17950.00             21625.00                2053.50
Cash Seller & Settlement           2243.00               2162.00            8293.00            17955.00             21630.00                2054.00

                                              LME Index Value as on September 17, 2012- 3580.3*
    *Last available public data on LME website
                                                       Major Support & Resistance Levels at MCX
Commodity            Expiry              PCP                R2            R1           Pivot                      S1               S2             Trend
Gold                 Oct,12             31811             32013.75          31916.50         31833.75         31736.50          31653.75           Up
Silver               Dec,12             63761             64686.50          64306.00         63955.50         63575.00          63224.50           Up
Crude Oil            Sep,12              5274             5504.75           5422.50           5271.75          5189.50           5038.75           Up
Copper               Nov,12             453.15             458.40            456.65           454.25           452.50            450.10           Down
Natural Gas          Sep,12              155.4             164.53            160.75           157.53           153.75            150.53            Up
Nickel               Sep,12              975.5             993.90            980.10           965.20           951.40            936.50           Down



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 Lead                   Sep,12          121             122.26             121.63            120.61           119.98           118.96            Up
 Zinc                   Sep,12         111.35           112.85             112.35            111.55           111.05           110.25            Up




Abbreviations:
MCX       :        Multi Commodity Exchange
NCDEX     :        National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange
PCP       :        Previous Closing Price
NYMEX     :        New York Mercantile Exchange
COMEX     :        Commodity Exchange
LME       :        London Metal Exchange
OPEC      :        Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
EIA       :        Energy Information Administration



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