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					Symposium Program
5th International Symposium on IWRM
3rd International Symposium on Methodology in Hydrology




                                      November 19 - 21, 2010
                                           Hohai University
                                              Nanjing, China
                                                         CONTENT

PROGRAM OVERVIEW ................................................................................................................. 1
Guidelines for Symposium Participants ............................................................................................2
Organizer ........................................................................................................................................... 3
Sponsors ............................................................................................................................................ 3
Themes .............................................................................................................................................. 3
Scientific Consultant ......................................................................................................................... 3
Scientific Steering Committee .......................................................................................................... 4
Organizing Committee ...................................................................................................................... 4
Opening Ceremony ...........................................................................................................................5
Photos ................................................................................................................................................ 5
Invited Keynote Lectures .................................................................................................................. 5
Plenary Session ................................................................................................................................. 6
IWRA board members meeting ......................................................................................................... 7
SESSIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 8
     Session 1 Hydrological processes in a changing environment .................................................. 8
     Session 2 Water resources assessment in a changing environment ........................................... 9
     Session 3 Water resources management .................................................................................. 10
     Session 4 Water Environment ................................................................................................. 10
     Session 5 Ecohydrological approach to water resources sustainability .................................. 11
     Session 6 Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling ....................................................................... 11
     Session 7 Hydrological modelling supported by multi-source information ............................12
     Session 8 Hydrological data retrieval by remote sensing methods ......................................... 13
     Session 9 Hydrological data mining and data assimilation ..................................................... 13
ABSTRACTS ................................................................................................................................. 14
     Abstracts for Keynote Lectures and Plenary Session ..............................................................15
     Abstracts for Session 1 ............................................................................................................ 21
     Abstracts for Session 2 ............................................................................................................ 27
     Abstracts for Session 3 ............................................................................................................ 33
     Abstracts for Session 4 ............................................................................................................ 36
     Abstracts for Session 5 ............................................................................................................ 39
     Abstracts for Session 6 ............................................................................................................ 43
     Abstracts for Session 7 ............................................................................................................ 45
     Abstracts for Session 8 ............................................................................................................ 49
     Abstracts for Session 9 ............................................................................................................ 51
PROGRAM OVERVIEW


  November 19
                       November 20, Saturday                 November 21, Sunday
   Saturday

                         Opening Ceremony             Room 113
                         (08:00-08:25)                Session 1 Hydrological processes in a
                     Room 108, Wentian Building       changing environment (08:20-
                                                      12:00)
                                Photos                Session 2 Water resources assessment
                          (08:25-08:40)               in a changing environment(14:00-
                       Wentian Building Entrance      18:00)
                       Invited Keynote Lectures       Room 102
                             (08:40 – 09:55)          Session 3 Water resources
                      Room 108, Wentian Building      management (8:20-10:00)
                              Tea Break               Session 4 Water Environment
                            (09:55-10:15)             (10:20-12:00)
Registration
                      Room 103, Wentian Building      Session 5 Ecohydrological approach
(10:00-18:00)
                                                      to water resources sustainability
                       Invited Keynote Lectures
                                                      (14:00-16:20)
Places:                      (10:15 – 12:00)
                                                      Session 6 Uncertainty in hydrologic
1. Huadong Hotel      Room 108, Wentian Building
                                                      modeling (16:40-18:00)
(No.67 Beijing
                              Lunch
West Road)
                          (12:00-13:30)
                           Jindun Hotel
2. Jindun Hotel
                                       IWRA Board
(No.21 Hujuguan    Plenary Session                    Room 104
                                         Meeting
Road)              (13:30-15:30)                      Session 7 Hydrological modelling
                                      (14:00-15:30)
                      Room 108                        supported by multi-source
                                        Room 209
                                                      information (8:20-12:00)
                              Tea Break
                                                      Session 8 Hydrological data retrieval
                             15:30-15:50
                                                      by remote sensing methods
                              Room 103
                                                      (14:00-15:40)
                                       IWRA Board
                   Plenary Session                    Session 9 Hydrological data mining
                                         Meeting
                   (15:50-17:50)                      and data assimilation (16:00-18:00)
                                      (15:50-17:50)
                      Room 108
                                        Room 209
                          Banquet
                          Time: 18:00
                          Venue: Jindun Hotel




                                        -1-
Guidelines for Symposium Participants
Service information
    Secretary General:
        Prof. Ren Liliang
        Mobile: 13952097290
    Logistic service
        Contact person:
        Prof. Wang Wen (English) Mobile: 13951698936
        Mr. Liu Qing (Chinese) Mobile: 13601586672
        Venue: Room 218, Jindun Hotel
    Technical support during symposium sessions
        Contact persons:
        Mr. Yuan Fei, Mobile: 13805169379
        Ms. Liu Bo, Mobile: 13675182436

Symposium materials
   Please submit your symposium materials or PowerPoint file(s) to the secretariat upon registration

Symposium venues
   Opening Ceremony: Room 108, Wentian Building
   Invited Keynote Lectures: Room 108, Wentian Building
   Plenary Session: Room 108, Wentian Building
   Session 1-2: Room 113, Wentian Building
   Session 3-6: Room 102, Wentian Building
   Session 7-9: Room 104, Wentian Building
   Refreshments: Room 103, Wentian Building

Meals arrangement
               Time                      Meals                           Venues
     07:00-08:00                        breakfast               The hotel where you live
     12:00-13:00                          lunch                       Jindun Hotel
     18:00-19:30                         dinner                       Jindun Hotel
        Reminder: Please present your meals coupons upon arrival at the dining hall.

Points for attention
   1. Every presenter is strictly allowed 15 minutes of presentation and about 5 minutes of question
      and answer during Sessions.
   2. All mobile phones should be switched off or set to vibration mode during sessions.
   3. Symposium participants should pay for their own accommodations.
   4. All symposium participants should pay for phone service and all other room services.




                                                  -2-
Organizer

   State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering
   International Commission on Water Resources Systems (ICWRS) of International Association of
   Hydrological Sciences (IAHS)


Sponsors

   International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS)
   International Water Resources Association
   Chinese National Committee for IAHS
   International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO
   China’s 111 Project by MOE and SAFEA (B08048)
   Special Basic Fund for Methodology in Hydrology by MOST (2007FY140900)


Themes

    5th International Symposium on IWRM:
         Hydrological processes in a changing environment
         Water resources assessment in a changing environment
         Quantitative methods for integrated water resources management
         Ecohydrological approach to water resources sustainability
    3rd International Symposium on Methodology in Hydrology:
         Field experimental methods in watershed scale hydrology
         Hydrological data retrieval by remote sensing methods
         Hydrological data mining and data assimilation
         Hydrological modeling supported by multi-source information


Scientific Consultant

   Professor Chang-Ming Liu, Academician of Chinese Academy of Sciences
   Professor Edward A. Sudicky, University of Waterloo, Canada
   Dr. Pierre Hubert, IAHS Secretary General, France




                                               -3-
Scientific Steering Committee

Chairman Hao Wang, Academician of Chinese Academy of Engineering, China Institute of Water
             Resources and Hydropower Research
             Professor Günter Blöschl, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
             Professor Jun Xia, The Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources
             Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS)
             Professor V. P. Singh, Texas A & M University, USA
 Member Prof. Frank W. Schwartz, Ohio State University, USA
             Prof. Nils Roar Sælthun, University of Oslo, Norway
             Prof. Keith R.J. Smettem, University of Western Australia, Australia
             Prof. Chongyu Xu, University of Oslo, Norway
             Pfo. Yang Hong, University of Oklahoma, USA
             Dr. Ian G. Littlewood, British Hydrological Society, UK
             Prof. Xunhong Chen, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA
             Prof. Ngai Weng Chan, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Malaysia
             Prof. Pierre Andre Chevallier, Montpellier 2 University, France


Organizing Committee

Chairman Prof. Cheng Wang, President of Hohai University
             Prof. Jianyun Zhang, President of Nanjing Institute of Hydraulic Research
Secretary Prof. Li-Liang Ren, Hohai University
  General Prof. Guo-Qing Shi, Hohai University
             Prof. Wen Wang, Hohai University
 Member Prof. Andreas Schumann,Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Germany
             Prof. Nick van de Giesen,Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
             Prof. Shi-Zhang Peng, Hohai University
             Prof. Zhong-Bo Yu, Hohai University
             Prof. Yuan-Fang Chen, Hohai University
             Prof. Jian-Qun Wang, Hohai University
             Prof. Qiong-Fang Li, Hohai University
Secretary Qing Liu, Qiu-Ling Zhang, Fei Yuan, Jia-Hu Wang, Zhi-Wen Wang, She-Mei Li




                                                -4-
 Opening Ceremony

 08:00-08:25,Saturday, November 20, 2010
 Room 108, Wentian Building, Main Campus at Hohai University
 Chairperson: ICWRS/IAHS Vice-President


 Welcome speech by        Hohai University President
          Speech by       IAHS Secretary General
                          IWRA President

 Photos

 08:25-08:40,Saturday, November 20, 2010
 Wentian Building Entrance

 Invited Keynote Lectures

 08:40-12:00, Saturday, November 20, 2010
 Room 108, Wentian Building

 No.      Lecturer                                 Title                            Time

Chairperson: Prof. Andreas Schumann, ICWRS/IAHS Vice-President

  1    Hao Wang           Thinking and Review on Methodology in Hydrology        08:40-09:05

  2    Jianyun Zhang      Development of hydrological forecasting in China       09:05-09:30

                          Integrated Water Resources Management: Who manages     09:30-09:55
  3    Pierre Hubert
                          What?
                       Tea Break, Room 103, Wentian Building                     09:55-10:15

Chairperson: Prof. Nick van de Giesen, ICWRS/IAHS Secretary
       Changming          Frontier Issues in Integrated Water Resources          10:15-10:40
  4
       Liu                Management
                          Adaptive Management for Climate Change Impact to       10:40-11:05
  5    Jun Xia
                          Water Sector in China: Opportunity and Challenges
                          Optimal Flood Control Operation for the Three Gorges   11:05-11:30
  6    Shenglian Guo
                          and Qingjiang Cascade Reservoirs
                          Water, Environment, Energy, Population and Climate     11:30-11:55
  7    V. P. Singh
                          Change: Implications for Sustainability
                          Hydrological modelling and forecasting in Norwegian    11:55-12:20
  8    N. R. Sælthun
                          hydropower systems operation
                                Lunch, Jindun Hotel                              12:20 - 13:30


                                                  -5-
 Plenary Session

 13:30-17:50,Saturday, November 20, 2010
 Room 108, Wentian Building


 No.       Speakers                                 Title                                Time


Chairperson: Prof. N. R. Sælthun, Department Chair, University of Oslo

  1    C. Tortajada       Water Management in Large Cities                            13:30-13:50

                          Blueprint for the Application of Innovative Groundwater     13:50-14:10
  2    F. W. Schwartz
                          Technologies in the Control of Urban Runoff
                          New Approaches Addressing Challenges in Hydrology           14:10-14:30
  3    Zhongbo Yu
                          and Water Resources
                          Methodical developments in Hydrology and water              14:30-14:50
  4    A. Schumann
                          resources management for IWRM
                          Global hydrological modeling: achievements and              14:50-15:10
  5    Chongyu Xu
                          challenges
       Nick van de        Water resources in the Volta Basin: Adaptation to           15:10-15:30
  6
       Giesen             change in a West African context
                              Tea Break, Room 103                                     15:30-15:50

Chairperson: Prof. V. P. Singh, Texas A & M University
              Editor-in-Chief, ASCE Journal of Hydrologic Engineering

  7    Yang Hong          Satellite Remote Sensing of Terrestrial Hydrology           15:50-16:10
                          Real-time Operation Decision Research of Cascade
  8    Changming Ji       Hydropower Stations Based on Optimal Operation              16:10-16:30
                          Statistical Characteristics
                          Effect of sub-optimal estimated effective rainfall on the
                          accuracy of calibrated n-hour unit hydrograph parameters
  9    I. G. Littlewood                                                               16:30-16:50
                          for a small humid-region catchment: method and
                          implications
                          Recent development in International Hydrologic Ensembl
  10   Qingyun Duan                                                                   16:50-17:10
                          e Prediction Experiment
       Edward A.          A Physically-based Approach to Assess the Impact of
  11                                                                                  17:10-17:30
       Sudicky            Climate Change on Canadian Water Resources
                          Determination of Stream-aquifer Hydrological
  12   Xunhong Chen       Connectedness in the US High Plains Region and its          17:30-17:50
                          Implication for Ground-Surface Water Management

                              Banquet, Jindun Hotel                                   18:00 - 20:00




                                                -6-
IWRA board members meeting

14:00-17:50,Saturday, November 20, 2010

Room 209, Wentian Building




                               -7-
SESSIONS

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Session 1 Hydrological processes in a changing environment
Room 113, Wentian Building

No.    Speakers                                   Title                                Time


Chairperson: Prof. Duan Qingyun, Beijing Normal University

                    Modeling ecohydrological processes considering land surface
 1 Chen Xi                                                                         08:20-08:40
                    vegetation dynamics
                    Varying effects of climate change and human activity on annual
 2 Han Songjun      streamflow for rivers in the different regions of the Heihe Basin 08:40-09:00
                    in Northwest China
                    Distributed hydrologic simulation based on the land
 3 Wang Miaolin                                                                    09:00-09:20
                    characteristics in the Jinsha River basin
                    Modeling and assessing hydrologic processes to historical and
 4 Liu Yangyang     potential future land-cover change in the Duoyingping watershed 09:20-09:40
                    of southwest China
                    Stream network change caused by urbanization: Case study of
 5 Xu Guanglai                                                                     09:40-10:00
                    Yangtze river delta, China

                                 Refreshments                                      10:00-10:20


Chairperson: Prof. Chen Xi, Hohai University

                    Pan evaporation changes and the relationship with
 6 Rong Yanshu                                                                     10:20-10:40
                    Meteorological variables in the upper reach of Yangtz River
                    An evaluation model based on TOPMODEL for catchment-scale
 7 Liu Yanli                                                                  10:40-11:00
                    runoff modeling responses to climate change
                    Problems of regional water security and possible
 8 Yang Tao         countermeasures in a rapidly developing region of Southern     11:00-11:20
                    China
                    Trend of Precipitation in China and Its Linkage with El
 9 Li Lintao                                                                       11:20-11:40
                    Niño-Southern Oscillation
                    Spatiotemporal variation and abrupt changes of potential
 10 Zuo Depeng                                                                     11:40-12:00
                    evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin

                                    Lunch                                          12:00-13:30



                                            -8-
Session 2 Water resources assessment in a changing environment

Room 113, Wentian Building

No.     Speakers                                   Title                                   Time


Chairperson: Prof. Li Qiongfang, Hohai University

                     River protection and restoration as keys towards sustainable
 1 N. W. Chan                                                                           14:00-14:20
                     water resources management in Malaysia
                     Regularity analysis on the regulation of karst groundwater
 2 Shu Longcang                                                                         14:20-14:40
                     system in Guizhou, Southwestern China
                     Predicting Daily Potable Water Savings by Using Rainwater
 3 Xu Hui                                                                               14:40—15:00
                     Tanks at Urban Scale
                     Effect of climate change on irrigation water requirements of rice
 4 Wang Jie                                                                            15:00-15:20
                     in Tianmu Basin with consideration to shortened growth period
                     impacts of Climate Change on the Availability of Water
 5 Chen Yanfei                                                                          15:20—15:40
                     Resources and the water resources planning
                     River basin water resources allocation and sustainable
 6 Yang Liying                                                                          15:40-16:00
                     management: key issues and challenges

                                  Refreshments                                          16:00-16:20


Chairperson: Prof. Shu Longcang, Hohai University

   Mohd
                     Anthropogenic impacts on water quality and water resources of
 7 Shalahuddin bin                                                                      16:20-16:40
                     the Pahang River, Malaysia
   Adnan

 8 Fu Zhimin         Effect of shallow groundwater on near-surface heat island effect 16:40-17:00

                     Spatial distribution of water consumption and water deficit of
 9 Sun Jiajia                                                                           17:00-17:20
                     main crops in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China
                     Response of Soil Moisture under Different Crop Planting to
 10 Long Xunjian                                                                        17:20-17:40
                     Precipitation in Central Hill Region of Sichuan Basin
                     Effects of the spatial and temporal variability of land use and
 11 Xu Jintao        precipitation on stream quality of Xitiaoxi watershed in eastern   17:40-18:00
                     China




                                             -9-
Session 3 Water resources management

Room 102, Wentian Building

No.     Speakers                                     Title                                Time

Chairperson: Dr. Ian Geoffrey Littlewood, British Hydrological Society
              Editor, Hydrology Research (Formerly Nordic Hydrology)
                     Drainage scavenger tube wells can sustain rural livelihoods:
 1 Bakshal Lashari                                                                     08:20-08:40
                     Evidence from sindh pakistan.

 2 Fateh M. Mari     Status of Spate Irrigation Systems in Sindh Province of Pakistan 08:40-09:00


 3 Zheng Hang        A Real Time Opeartion Model for Water Rights Management           09:00-09:20

                     Scale-dependent Water Use Assessment with Improved SWAT
 4 Wang Jianpeng                                                                       09:20-09:40
                     Model in Rice-based Irrigation System
                     System dynamics modeling of water and salt balance of Bosten
 5 Luo Yufeng        Lake in northwest China: implications for ecologically            09:40-10:00
                     sustainable management

                                  Refreshments                                         10:00-10:20


Session 4 Water Environment
Room 102, Wentian Building

Chairperson: Prof. Richard J. Harper, Murdoch University

                     Evaluation of Agricultural Non-Point Pollution in Baiyangdian
 1 Chen Kangning                                                                       10:20-10:40
                     Lake Basin Using SWAT Model
                     River water quality assessment based on principal component
 2 Li Guiping                                                                          10:40-11:00
                     analysis
                     Experimental study on the mechanism of the nutrient export in a
 3 Liu Hongwei                                                                       11:00-11:20
                     small watershed
                     Study on water quality prediction model of centralized drinking
 4 Yu Fengcun                                                                          11:20-11:40
                     water wellhead
                     Using carbon mitigation to restore water quality in large
 5 Harper, R. J.                                                                       11:40-12:00
                     deforested watersheds

                                      Lunch                                            12:00-13:30




                                            - 10 -
Session 5 Ecohydrological approach to water resources sustainability

Room 102, Wentian Building

No.      Speakers                                   Title                               Time


Chairperson: Prof. K. R. J. Smettem, University of Western Australia

                    Evaluation of ecological instream flow of the Pearl River basin,
 1 Zhang Qiang                                                                       14:00-14:20
                    South China
                    Spatial variation of health risk for drinking groundwater in
 2 Ni Fuquan                                                                        14:20-14:40
                    Mingshan County, Ya’an,China
                    Research on response models of aquatic ecosystem with
 3 Chen Dongwei     Hydrological regime changing——take the Dongjiang for an         14:40—15:00
                    example
                    Computation method of instream ecological flow based on
 4 Li Jian                                                                          15:00-15:20
                    physical habitat simulation
                    Influence of the hydraulic engineering construction in the upper
      Zhang Nan     reaches on the eco-environmental flow of the middle-lower
 5                                                                                   15:20—15:40
                    reaches of the Yangtze River-based on the improved SWAT
                    model
                    Field observation of water temperature profile in large reservoirs
 6 Kang Yueé                                                                           15:40-16:00
                    with different features
                    Impacts of Three Gorges-Gezhouba reservoir cascade on the
 7 Yu Meixiu                                                                        16:00-16:20
                    stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River

                                 Refreshments                                       16:20-16:40


Session 6 Uncertainty in hydrologic modeling

Room 102, Wentian Building

Chairperson: Prof. Zhang Qiang, Sun Yat-sen University

                    Strategic treatment of the hydrological uncertainty based on
 1 Lin Kairong                                                                      16:40-17:00
                    comparison of the separated runoff components
                    Uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL model based on GLUE
 2 Yao Xiliang                                                                      17:00-17:20
                    method using different likelihood function
                    Study on a concentration calculation method considering
 3 Sun Yingna                                                                       17:20-17:40
                    stochastic and uncertainty
                    Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrological Model Using Multi-criteria
 4 Zhang Liru                                                                       17:40-18:00
                    Likelihood Measure Within the GLUE Method


                                           - 11 -
Session 7 Hydrological modelling supported by multi-source information

Room 104, Wentian Building

No.     Speakers                                     Title                             Time


Chairperson: Prof. Frank W. Schwartz, Ohio State University

                    Flow and Transport in Saturated and Unsaturated Zone: From
 1 Huang Guanhua                                                                    08:20-08:40
                    Laboratory Scale to Field Scale
                    Application of Continuous Time Random Walk Theory to
 2 Ren Li                                                                           08:40-09:00
                    Nonequilibrium Transport in Soil
                    Application and assessment of a multiscale data integration
 3 Li Na                                                                            09:00-09:20
                    method to saturated hydraulic conductivity in soil
                    Time Scale Dependent Sensitivity of Xinanjiang Model
 4 Lu Minjiao                                                                       09:20-09:40
                    Parameters
                    Parameter Optimization of Xinanjiang Model Taking Into their
 5 Li Xiao                                                                          09:40-10:00
                    Time Scale Dependency

                                  Refreshments                                      10:00-10:20


Chairperson: Prof. Xu Chongyu, University of Oslo

                    Application of the coupled land-surface-hydrology model system
 6 Yuan Fei                                                                        10:20-10:40
                    Noah-LSM-HMS to the Poyang Lake basin, China
                    Hillslope as basic discretized unit: the scale effects on its
 7 Liu Jintao                                                                       10:40-11:00
                    geometric factors
                    The application of bi-directional Muskingum water-stage routing
 8 Qu Simin                                                                         11:00-11:20
                    model in Caoejiang River
                    Effect of calibration data length on performance and optimal
 9 Li Chuanzhe                                                                      11:20-11:40
                    parameters of hydrological model

 10 Liu Xingcai     Parameterization of land surface processes in the Taihu basin   11:40-12:00


                                      Lunch                                         12:00-13:30




                                            - 12 -
Session 8 Hydrological data retrieval by remote sensing methods

Room 104, Wentian Building

No.    Speakers                                     Title                                  Time


Chairperson: Prof. Hong Yang, University of Oklahoma

                    Assessment of land surface diversions from water balance and
 1 Edraki Masoud                                                                        14:00-14:20
                    remote sensing data
                    Crop Classification Using Per-Field Method Based on ETM+
 2 An Ru                                                                                14:20-14:40
                    Image and MODIS EVI Time Series Analysis
                    Estimate soil moisture using trapezoidal relationship between
 3 Wang Wen                                                                             14:40—15:00
                    remotely sensed land surface temperature and vegetation index
                    Study on land surface hydrologic simulation of Yangtze River
 4 Gu Huanghe                                                                           15:00-15:20
                    basin using the TRMM-Multi-Satellite Precipitation product
                    Evaluation of high-resolution satellite precipitation products with
 5 Jiang Shanhu                                                                         15:20—15:40
                    surface rainfall over Laohahe Basin in northern China

                                 Refreshments                                           15:40-16:00


Session 9 Hydrological data mining and data assimilation
Room 104, Wentian Building

Chairperson: Prof. Wang Wen, Hohai University

                    Hydrological probability distribution calculation using moments
 1 Song Songbai                                                                     16:00-16:20
                    of nonclassical orthogonal polynomials
                    The DCE Method, MTSE Method and DMTSE Method of
 2 Song Shengli                                                                         16:20-16:40
                    Hydrological Series Extension
                    How reliable can we detect changes in extreme precipitation and
 3 Liu Kejing                                                                       16:40-17:00
                    streamflow events with statistical methods?
                    Data Assimilation Using SVM and EnKF for Soil Moisture
 4 Liu Di                                                                               17:00-17:20
                    Prediction
                    Assimilating surface soil moisture to estimate profile soil water
 5 Kou Xiaohua                                                                          17:20-17:40
                    content using EnKF and Hydrus-1D Model
                    Flood Classification Based on Improved Principal Component
 6 Ge Hui                                                                               17:40-18:00
                    Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis




                                           - 13 -
         5th International Symposium on IWRM
3rd International Symposium on Methodology in Hydrology




                ABSTRACTS




                         - 14 -
Abstracts for Keynote Lectures and Plenary Session

Adaptive Management for Climate Change Impact to Water Sector in China:
Opportunity and Challenges

XIA Jun
President, International Water Resources Association (IWRA)
Governor, World Water Council (WWC)
Director, Center for Water Resources Research,
Chinese Academy of Sciences

Abstract:The impact of climate change on water resources security is a challenging issue with
widespread concern globally. It is as well the great strategic issue in the national sustainable
development of China. China is one of the thirteen water-poor countries all around the world;
particularly the East China monsoon area with a dense population has witnessed a more serious
imbalance of water resources between supply and demand. In addition, the drought and waterlogging
frequently occur in East China monsoon area. Under the circumstances of the climate change, drought
aggravation in the northern region, water ecological deterioration, and the increasing extreme flood
disaster in the southern region severely restricted the sustainable development of the economy and
society during the past 30 years. The future climate change will have great influence on the existing
pattern of “north drought and south flooding” in China and the water resources distribution in the near
future, and consequently exert some unexpected influence on the effects of major engineering projects
in China, including food increasing project in North and Northeast China, water transfer project, flood
control system planning of southern rivers etc.
     This paper will focus on the major river basins in eastern monsoon region of China, and
investigate the mechanism of the impact of climate change on water resources and the relevant
adaptation strategies. The framework of a National Basic Research Program of China, entitled the
Impact of Climate Change on Terrestrial Water Cycle, Regional Water Resources Security and the
Adaptation Strategy for East Monsoon Area of China, will be introduced. The study will focuses the
impact of climate change on the water resources scarcity, droughts and floods, food security, water
security and other related issues in East China monsoon area. The three key scientific issues are
addressed, given by follows: (1) The spatial-temporal variability and uncertainty of water cycle
components under climate change; (2) Interaction and feedback mechanism between land surface
hydrology and regional climate ;( 3) Vulnerability and sustainability of water resources under climate
change. The main research topics focus in four aspects: (1) The evolution law of the water cycle
components dynamics in the past and the scenario simulations for the future; (2) Regional response and
variation attribution of water cycle under climate change; (3)The impact of climate change on typical
water resources challenges in southern and northern China; (4)Vulnerability and adaptation strategies
of water resources under climate change. Through the analysis of the observed land hydrological cycle
components in the past 50 years or earlier, quantifying the uncertainty of the precipitation from
multi-model predictions under the future climate change and the two-way coupling and interaction
between land surface hydrology and regional climate, this study is to reveal the driving factor of the
hydrological process change under climate change, and to recognize and understand the impact of

                                                 - 15 -
climate changes on the spatial-temporal dynamics of the hydrologic cycle, the system feedback and the
mechanism. Corresponding to the latest report of IPCC, this study will analyze and evaluate the climate
change impact on the spatial-temporal pattern of water resources in China monsoon area, the frequency
and intensity of the extremes of drought and flooding, economic and social impact of the consequences
and risks in water resource vulnerable areas in the next 20-50 years, and finally establish the adaptation
strategies to optimally deal with the impact of climate change and to secure the water resources security
for China.
      The research will address the scientific basis for the regional economic and social sustainable
development, and contribute to the field of climate change and water sciences as an international front
runner. The aims to meet the great strategic demands of China and is targeted at the international
forefront of water sciences.



Optimal Flood Control Operation for the Three Gorges and Qingjiang Cascade
Reservoirs

SHENGLIAN GUO, YU LI & JIONGHONG CHEN
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,
Wuhan, China, 430072, slguo@whu.edu.cn

Abstract:Both separate and joint flood control operation models for the Three Gorges and Qingjiang
cascade reservoirs were proposed. The models were solved by the modified progressive optimality
algorithm according to the procedure of optimization–verification-adjustment and its constraint
conditions were treated by dynamic penalty function. Four typical years of 1954, 1981, 1982 and 1998
were selected to derive the design flood hydrographs for the corresponding return periods by the peak
and volume amplitude method. The conventional, separate and joint cascade operation flood control
models were performed for these reservoirs. The results show that the separate cascade operation which
gives full play to the role of flood control storage compensation between a cascade reservoirs, joint
cascades operation can also perform storage compensation between two cascades; the Jingjiang River
flood control standards can be raised to 118-year and 136-year design floods based on 1982 typical year,
and 150-year and 168-year design flood based on the average of four typical years, respectively.



Hydrological modelling and forecasting in Norwegian hydropower systems operation

Nils Roar Sælthun
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo
n.r.salthun@geo.uio.no

Abstract:Hydropower is a dominant energy source in Norway, and provides close to 100% of the
electricity production. The Norwegian hydropower companies are also an important part of the Nordic
and North Europe electricity systems and markets. The short and medium term availability of water is
thus a decisive factor for the price of electricity in the national and regional supply systems. Reliable
forecasts of water availability are important for the optimal operation of the systems, and provide the

                                                  - 16 -
operator with an competetive advantage. As a result, the Norwegian hydropower companies have been
a driving force in the development of forcasting systems, and have 30 years of history of use of
hydrological models as an integral tool in the operation systems. In addition to the economical
advantages of the use of hydrological forecasting systems, they also provides vital information for safe
operation in flood situations, and assists in precise release of compensation/ecological flow.
     The paper reviews the development of hydrological forcasting in hydropower operation in Norway,
and describes the present state of the forecasting systems, illustrated with examples from major
Norwegian hydropower companies.



Blueprint for the Application of Innovative Groundwater Technologies in the
Control of Urban Runoff

U. Solpuker1, Y. Kim2, J. Hawkins1, P.R. Olson3, E. Lee3 and F.W. Schwartz1
1 School of Earth Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA 43210
2 Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 92 Gwahang-no Yuseong-gu,
Daejeon 305-350, KOREA
3Department of Geological Sciences, Ohio University, Athens OH, USA 45701

Abstract:Nonpoint source (NPS) pollutants are the leading remaining cause of impairment in the
hydrologic and biologic function of urban water systems and human health. A variety of different
substances can occur as NPS contaminants in urban watersheds. Common sources include atmospheric
deposition of metals and nutrients, wash-off of organics and trace metals from roads, parking lots, and
construction sites, and intensive non-point releases of chemicals of all types. Moreover, the urban
infrastructure is particularly efficient in transporting water and contaminants to urban streams.
Managing the NPS loads poses formidable challenges to countries around the world because
contaminant sources are ubiquitous. While there has been important technological progress in the
development of 'best practices' for reducing non-point loading to streams and lakes, the challenge of
reducing the non-point loads is formidable because contaminant sources are virtually everywhere.
     Our paper describes a blueprint for marrying novel technologies that have been developed
primarily for the in situ treatment of contaminants in groundwater with BMPs that already exist for
controlling the timing of runoff. Particular promising in this respect are new approaches for in situ
oxidation based on 'slow release' materials that we have developed, chemical controls for reducing the
mobility of metals by pH adjustments, and the application of biopolymers for metal sorption. The
obvious next step with our research is to find new ways to magnify the efficiency of these strategies in
a more practical sense.
     The paper also presents preliminary results on the efficacy of using permeable, reactive pavements
for the control of metal migration. Porous concrete is constructed from the same materials as
conventional concrete with the exceptions that the fine fraction of the aggregate is eliminated and the
size distribution of coarse aggregate is narrowed. Column experiments show that water infiltrating such
a column experiences a pH adjustment to >12 with the immobilization of trace metals (e.g., Cu) as
various minerals precipitate. However, transport through porous concrete is complicated by the fact that
at high ph hydroxyl-complexes facilitate metal transport. We have identified mineral phases and their
geochemical properties, including calcium silicate hydrate gels (CSH), portlandite (Ca(OH)2),


                                                 - 17 -
ettringite (Ca6(Al(OH)6)2(SO4)3:26H2O), monosulfoaluminate (Ca4Al2(SO4)(OH)12:6H2O) and
other minor phases such as alite, belite, and ferrite, to provide a basis for modeling 1-D transport with
PHREEQEC. The model database does not include hardened concrete phases; therefore, each must be
identified in the code. CSH gels have complex structures and the incongruent dissolution of CSH gels
was modeled as a non-ideal solid solution aqueous solution (SSAS between the end-member
components Ca(OH)2 and CaH2SiO4. The computer code has been successful in simulating the
column experiments and instructive in identifying problems in the use of porous concrete. Ultimately,
this research will lead to novel technologies that can be bundled to work in the treatment of urban
runoff.



Methodical developments in Hydrology and water resources management for IWRM

Professor Andreas Schumann
Ruhr-Universität Bochum
Fakultät für Bau- und Umweltingenieurwissenschaften
Lehrstuhl für Hydrologie, Wasserwirtschaft und Umwelttechnik
Universitätsstraße 150, D 44801 Bochum
Tel.: +49 / 234 / 32 – 24693; Fax : +49 / 234 / 32 - 14153

Abstract:The holistic approach to water management which was specified ten years ago by the
IWRM-concept resulted in the promotion of socio-economic and ecological research. Here large
deficits existed which became evident by attempts to implement this new planning philosophy.
However the knowledge of hydrological components and their interactions with man-made systems is
the indispensable base of all water management activities. The implementation of IWRM demands
more information about new sources of uncertainties which results from the human factors and
planning tools which can consider the “known unknown”, e. g. with scenarios or probabilistic tools. It
seems to be unlikely that the success of water management activities can be ensured if the interaction
between components which have to integrated cannot be specified quantitatively. Integration of surface
water and ground water management or of land and water management requires a deeper knowledge
about interdependencies as it is often available. Even more complicated is the integration of human
systems. If water management has to be harmonized with national economic policy the problem of
macro-economic effects are extremely important. The pretension to integrate such aspects into water
management can be fulfilled only if uncertainties can be handled in an appropriated way. These
uncertainties are different from the aleatoric uncertainties ones we are familiar with. Often main
influencing factors are connected with surprising uncertainties which cannot be specified in advance.
Here the need consists in minimizing the chance of errors and unexpected happenings. Some aspects of
these problems will be discussed and tools to handle them are presented.



Global hydrological modeling: achievements and challenges

Chong-Yu Xu1, Lebing Gong1 & Sven Halldin2
1Dept of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway (chongyu.xu@geo.uio.no)

                                                  - 18 -
2Dept of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden

Abstract:The origins of rainfall-runoff modeling in the broad sense can be found in the middle of the
19th century. Since then numerous empirical, conceptual and physically-based models are developed.
From the late 1980s, the evolution of global and continental-scale hydrology has placed new demands
on hydrologic modellers. The macro-scale hydrological (global and regional scale) models were
developed on the basis of the following motivations. First, for a variety of operational and planning
purposes, water resource managers responsible for large regions need to estimate the spatial variability
of resources over large areas, at a spatial resolution finer than can be provided by observed data alone.
Second, hydrologists and water managers are interested in the effects of land-use and climate change
over a large geographic domain. Third, there is an increasing need of using hydrologic models as a base
to estimate point and non-point sources of pollution loading to streams. Fourth, hydrologists and
atmospheric modellers have perceived weaknesses in the representation of hydrological processes in
regional and global climate models, and developed global hydrological models to overcome the
weaknesses of land surface modeling is the global climate models. Considerable progress in the
development and application of global hydrological models has been achieved to date, however, large
uncertainties still exist considering the model structure including large scale flow routing,
parameterization, input data, etc. This presentation will focus on the global hydrological models and
discuss (1) types of global hydrological models, (2) procedure of global hydrological model
development, (3) state-of-the-art of existing global hydrological models, and (4) challenges.



The effect of sub-optimal estimated effective rainfall on the accuracy of calibrated
n-hour unit hydrograph parameters for a small humid-region catchment: method
and implications

Ian G. Littlewood
IGL Environment, Didcot, Oxford, OX11 7XN, United Kingdom

Abstract:In this paper, effective rainfall in an n-hour period is the portion of the rainfall in that period
that eventually leaves a catchment as streamflow. Discrete-time unit hydrograph (UH)-based
rainfall–streamflow modelling usually involves the estimation of effective rainfall from inputs of
rainfall and other hydrometeorological observations, in a (non-linear) loss module. The estimated
effective rainfall forms the input to a (usually linear) UH identification module. Many different loss and
UH modules have been developed, combined and applied for engineering hydrology and research. A
fundamental problem with all loss modules is that effective rainfall is not observable, so it is impossible
to assess estimates of it by direct comparison with measurements. For the 10.6 km2 Wye at Cefn
Brwyn, Wales, the paper introduces and applies an indirect method to show that sub-optimal estimation
of effective rainfall can account for a large part of the inaccuracy associated with the UH parameters of
a well-known rainfall–streamflow model. For catchments that exhibit a highly dynamic response to
rainfall, e.g. Cefn Brwyn, rainfall–streamflow model parameters calibrated using daily data can have
very poor accuracy (relative to quasi-optimal values of the same model parameters calibrated using
data with a much shorter interval), and therefore their uncertainty can be very high, even if they are
estimated with good precision. Cefn Brwyn effective rainfall estimated during rainfall–streamflow


                                                   - 19 -
model calibration using hourly data can be considered to be quasi-optimal. Summing the quasi-optimal
hourly effective rainfall over consecutive n-hour periods (n > 1 hour) gives quasi-optimal n-hourly
effective rainfall. Selected n-hourly quasi-optimal effective rainfall series (1 < n < 24) for a 210-day
period are used with corresponding n-hourly observed flows to calibrate UH modules. These n-hour
UHs are compared with UHs calibrated during rainfall–streamflow modelling over the same 210-day
period employing n-hourly rainfall and streamflow data, providing an indirect method of assessing the
effect of sub-optimal effective rainfall on the accuracy associated with UH parameters as n increases.
For example, the inaccuracy associated with a Cefn Brwyn UH quick-flow decay time constant
(precision about +/- 2%) decreases from about +425%, when the whole rainfall–streamflow model is
calibrated using daily data, to about +250% when quasi-optimal daily effective rainfall (constructed
from the quasi-optimal hourly effective rainfall) is used with daily flows to identify the UH. Even more
interestingly, the inaccuracy associated with a complementary calibrated UH slow-flow decay time
constant (precision about +/- 16%) decreases from about +110% to just +17%. The accuracy and
precision associated with the calibrated parameters of other discrete-time rainfall–streamflow models
(whether UH-based or not) are likely to exhibit similar behaviour. The results reinforce the importance
of using sufficiently high-frequency data for modelling catchments that exhibit a highly dynamic
streamflow response to rainfall. Some implications of the results are discussed, including for model
parameter regionalisation towards estimating flow from rainfall in ungauged (flow) basins.



Development of sustainable groundwater extraction practices for a major superficial
aquifer supporting a groundwater dependent ecosystem.

R. Froend1’, K.R.J. Smettem2, M. Davies1, C. Xu3, C.Robertson3 and M. Martin3
1Edith Cowan University, Centre for Ecosystem Management, (email: r.froend@ecu.edu.au). 2Centre
for Ecohydrology, School of Environmental Systems Engineering, University of Western Australia, 3
Infrastructure Planning Branch, Water Corporation of Western Australia.

Abstract:  Throughout Australia many groundwater dependent ecosystems have been adversely affected
by unsympathetic water abstraction practices. In Western Australia, the largest single supply of
drinking water for the city of Perth is a superficial aquifer known as the Gnangara Groundwater Mound,
located over an area of approximately 2200 km2 within and to the north of the city on the Swan Coastal
Plain. The groundwater resource supplies 60% of Perth’s pubic drinking water supply and 85% of total
water demand for all users.
     Much of the mound is overlain by phreatophytic Banksia woodland that is susceptible to drought
stress and death if the root system is separated from the unconfined aquifer for prolonged periods over
the hot, dry Mediterranean summer. Drought stress has been exacerbated by diminished rainfall due to
a changing climate regime.
     The aim of this research is to develop guidelines for sustainable groundwater abstraction (timing
and volume) that will maintain the long term integrity of the ecosystem. We seek to investigate whether
a change in abstraction regime, from ‘peak demand’ summer pumping to winter pumping allows
groundwater levels to recover sufficiently prior to summer, thereby maintaining a healthy vegetation
system. Results from two cycles of winter pumping are reported here.



                                                 - 20 -
Abstracts for Session 1


Modeling ecohydrological processes with dynamic variations of vegetation physiology
and ecology

Xi Chen, Linna Wei, Wen Wang, Zhicai Zhang
(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, China)

Abstract: Based on structures of the Distributed Hydrology-Soil-Vegetation Model (DHSVM),
evapotranspiration estimation was improved in that minimum resistance of plant rsmin varies with
precipitation for considering the role of plant water stress and adaptive mechanism under dry and wet
climate conditions. A two-period recession analysis of the hydrographs was adopted for simulation of
drought flow discharges according to characteristics of flood recessions and geological conditions. A
small basin of Xingfeng in the Dongjiang red-soil hilly region, southeast China, was selected for
modeling ecohydrological processes in this study. Ecological and hydrodynamic parameters related
with vegetations and soils in the study basin were determined on the basis of remote sensing (RS) data
as well as field and laboratory experiments. Hydrological and meteorological observation data during
2004 ~ 2008 were further used for parameter calibration and model verification. Perturbation analysis
method was introduced for sensitivity analysis, revealing influences of changes of the soil and
vegetation parameters on runoff and evapotranspiration. The simulated results demonstrate that our
improved model can be used to simulate ecohydrological processes with dynamic variations of
vegetation physiology and ecology and increases simulation accuracy in hydrological processes. This
research offers a scientific base for analyzing eco-hydrological effects under the changes of land uses
and land covers.




Varying effects of climate change and human activity on annual streamflow in
different regions of Heihe Basin

SONGJUN Han1, 2. Dawen Yang3
Department of Irrigation and Drainage, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,
Beijing 100048, China
Hansj@iwhr.com
National Center of Efficient Irrigation Engineering and Technology Research, Beijing 100048, China
State Key Laboratory of Hydro-science and Engineering, Department of Hydraulic Engineering,
Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China


Abstract:Changes in annual streamflow from 1958 to 2000 were investigated over the east and west
sub-catchments of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, to evaluate the effects of climate change
and human activity on annual streamflow. The west sub-catchments had decreasing trends in annual


                                                 - 21 -
streamflow, whereas the east sub-catchments had increasing trends. All the three stations in Heihe
Basin had upward trends in annual mean temperature and precipitation; however, the station in the west
sub-catchment had significant upward trends in potential evaporation, whereas the two stations in the
east sub-catchments had no significant trends in potential evaporation. The Budyko framework was
employed to evaluate the impacts of land use changes and climate variabilities on annual streamflow,
with the Taolai catchment and Heihe Basin’s mainstream sub- catchment chosen to represent rivers in
the western and eastern sub-catchments respectively. The variation in streamflow of the Heihe
mainstream sub-catchment is a result of natural variation; however, the variation in streamflow was
obviously influenced by human activities in the Taolai sub-catchment. The effects of climate changes
on annual streamflow are also varying. The increase in annual streamflow in the eastern catchments
was mainly due to increased precipitation, whereas the decrease in annual streamflow in the western
catchments was due to more significant increased potential evaporation.



Distributed hydrologic simulation based on the land characteristics in the Jinsha
River basin

MIAOLIN WANG1 , JUN XIA2 & CHONGYU XU3
1 Upper Yangtze River Survey Bureau of Hydrology & Water Resources, Bureau of Hydrology,
Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Chongqing 400014, China
wangmiaolin@163.com
2 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences
and Natural Resources Research, Beijing 100010, China
3 Dept of Geosciences Hydrology, University of Oslo, Norway

Abstract:Hydrological simulation in ungauged catchments has been singled out as one of the major
challenges in the hydrological sciences. In this study, a Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM)
was applied to the 30 sub-catchments in the Jinsha River basin, headwater of the Yangtze River for the
purposes of testing the applicability of the model in the headwater region of the Yangtze River,
examining the possibility of relating the model parameter values to the physical properties of the
catchment, and assessing the effect of land use changes on the runoff yield. The area ratios of soil
textures and land use types of 30 catchments were extracted by GIS. The results show that (1) the
model is capable of reproducing the historical record of runoff for the region with an average value
Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient equals to 0.83, (2) the major parameters are successfully regressed to
physical properties with multiple regression coefficients vary from 0.71 to 0.84.



Modeling and assessing hydrologic processes to historical and potential future
land-cover change in the Duoyingping watershed of southwest China

Yangyang Liu,1 Xinnan Zhang,1,2 Yuanhao Fang1 and Bojuan Liu1
1 College of Hydrology and Water Resources in Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
2 National Engineering Research Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Engineering
Safety, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China


                                                - 22 -
Abstract:Land-cover change significantly influences hydrologic processes at the watershed level. The
mountainous Duoyingping watershed in the upstream of Yangtze River, China, had experienced
dramatic land-cover change in the past three decades, which could inevitably altered hydrologic
processes to a certain degree. Therefore, the impact of land-cover change on runoff, evapotranspiration
(ET), and soil moisture were assessed using Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) large-scale hydrologic
model in the study watershed.
In order to minimize the effect of climate on simulation results, detrended climate data over the period
of 1980 to 2005 were used to force the VIC model. In this study, dynamics in the spatial distribution of
land-cover types between 1980 and 2000 were firstly examined in Duoyingping watershed which
revealed that reforestation and deforestation were the major change patterns. Then, according to various
land-use policies, the potential future land-cover scenarios of 2030 were established respectively using
an empirical land-cover change model (CLUE-S) based on the land-cover of 2000. Finally, the
calibrated VIC model was applied for these land-cover scenarios to assess the land-cover impacts on
hydrology. Hydrological simulations showed that the impacts of historical land-cover change on
hydrology are discernible in sub-watersheds of Nanba, Yingjing and Yuxi. The annual ET is projected
to decrease by 0.8–22.3% due to deforestation, and increase by 2.3–27.4% under the conversion from
shrubland to forest. Different future land-cover scenarios plays a different role in the impact on
hydrology due to various land-use policies. Under the future scenario concerning with forest protection
policy, annual ET increases by more than 15%, whereas annual runoff decreased by 6%. However, an
insignificant effect on hydrology was found under another potential future scenario involving in
cropland expansion. Additionally, it can be concluded that ET is more sensitive to land-cover change
than other hydrologic components. Hydrologic alteration duo to reforestation and deforestation in dry
season were more significant than in wet season. Generally, the proposed approach in the study can be
a useful mean of assessing hydrologic responses to land-cover change.



Stream network change caused by urbanization: Case study of Yangtze river delta,
China

Guanglai XU, Youpeng XU, Yixing YIN
(School of Geographic and Oceanic Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China)

Abstract:Urbanization within a watershed increases the area of impervious surfaces, which decreases
infiltration of precipitation and increases runoff. And with the land use change and hydraulic
engineering around rivers induced by urbanization, the natural structure of stream network had been
acutely changed. With a case study of Yangtze river delta of China — Hang-Jia-Hu watershed, which
has undergone rapid urban development over the past decade, firstly, we assess the land use changes in
three period, which vary from 1991, 2001 to 2006. Based on the result of remote sensing images
supervise classifying, The impervious surface increase continuously, which increasing
1280km2(ca.376%) in these 15 years; while the water/lake area decrease by 328km2(ca.52%). There
are variation of the agriculture and forest area in 1991-2006. Then with the MNDWI methods to
extract the vector river network, we analyze the number and length changes of different level and the
stream network structure changes. The number and length of low level river are declining in 1991-2006,


                                                 - 23 -
while the declining in high level river is not seen. There are descend trend in the branch ratio and
length ratio of the stream network, and the branch ratio and length ratio are in range of Horton’s law in
statistics. But with the much little of length ratio, the fractal dimension value is beyond the threshold.
Finally, with the Mann-Kendall trend test, based on the meteorological and hydrological observation
data, we analyze the precipitation and water table change in 1960-2007. In these 47 years, there is a
weakly increasing trend of precipitation, which do not reach the significant level. While there also is a
increasing trend of observed water table, which reach the significant level from near 1993 to 2007. It is
because that the impervious surface and stream network changes. Water/lake area rate and the number
and length of the low level river are the key to keep well stream network structure and flood control.




Pan evaporation changes and the relationship with Meteorological variables in the
upper reach of Yangtzi River

RONG Yanshu1 Wang Wen2 ZHOU Yun1 & JIANG Haiyan1
1. College of Hydrology and Water Resource, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China.
ysron@hhu.edu.cn
2. State key lab of Hydrology-Water Resources & Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing
210098 )

Abstract: The upper reach of Yangtzi River, 4511 km long from west to east (24-36ºN, 90-112ºE),
covers eight provinces and municipalites in China. Long-term changes in evaporation can have
profound implications for hydrologic processes and climate change, while climate changes in this reach
have great impact on water resources, ecosystem and environment. Characteristics of pan evaporation,
changes of meteorological variables, and effects of meteorological variables on pan evaporation in the
reach, were investigated by means of daily pan evaporation at 66 stations and other meteorological
variables measured at 90 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2008. The results showed that both pan
evaporation and meteorological variables not only have decrease trend but also have increase trend
during recent years over upper reach of Yangtzi River, and these increase or decrease trend were not
symmetrical between regions and seasons. The likely causative meteorological variables for such
changes were identified. The decrease of pan evaporation in some southern stations of researching
region were most strongly associated with increased air pressure (PA), increased relative humidity (RH)
and decreased sunshine duration (SD), while the increase of pan evaporation seemed due largely to air
temperature (TA) increasing, air pressure (PA) decreasing and relative humidity (RH) decreasing.



An evaluation model based on TOPMODEL for catchment-scale runoff modeling
responses to climate change

Yanli LIU1,2 , Jianyun ZHANG1,2, Guoqing WANG1,2, Jiufu LIU1,2, Ruimin He1,2
 (1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210029;
2. Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210029)



                                                  - 24 -
Abstract:In the process of evaluation of climate change impacts, basically driven by climate scenario
assumption and simulation in future, the hydrological model is explored as an estimation tool on water
resources and hydrologic situation. Based on the worldwide used hydrological model—TOPMODEL, a
climate change evaluation model is presented. It was applied to Xixian catchment of Huaihe River
upstream. The baseline period (03/1961-02/1990) of daily data were addressed and the model was
calibrated. The results show the model could be employed as climate change estimation reasonably and
reliably in a large scale. Three global emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and three GCMs (CSRIO,
NCAR and MPI), seven simulations in total were addressed in this study, and the dominant two factors
of rainfall and temperature changes were deduced. Thus the annual and monthly runoff responses to
climate change were simulated and uncertainty was analyzed in an ensemble manner. The results show
the dominate trend is slightly increasing in runoff of Xixian catchment during future climate
(03/2021-02/2051). But it indicates a non-direct proportion line relationship between more moisture
warming weather and more runoff, and non-uniform distribution in seasons.



Problems of regional water security and possible countermeasures in a rapidly
developing region of Southern China

Tao Yanga, Quanxi Shaob, Guihua Lua, Yongqin David Chenc,
Vijay P. Singhd, Limin Suna
a State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulics Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, China;
b CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia;
c Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin,
Hong Kong, China;
d Department of Biological & Agricultural Engineering and Department of Civil & Environmental
Engineering , Texas A&M University, TX USA;

Abstract:The Pearl River Delta region (PRD), characterized by a continually growing population and
the fastest pace of development in China, is currently confronting an increasing number of serious
issues regarding water security, e.g., floods, droughts, water pollution, and saltwater intrusion. These
problems have a variety of negative impacts on human society and surrounding environment, such as
mortality of humans and animals, property damage, eco-environment degradation and health
deterioration. The objective of this paper is to: (1) summarize the basic characteristics of water supply
systems in PRD in terms of its geographical, climatic, hydrological and socio-economic conditions; (2)
evaluate the sustainability of water supply system in 4 major cities in PRD from a regional perspective;
(3) address and discuss the severities of water pollution and saltwater intrusion by reviewing the
existing research findings; and then (4) propose possible countermeasures to sustainable development
strategies of water resources under the new challenges of the intensified human activities in this unique
aquatic environment in China.




                                                  - 25 -
Trend of Precipitation in China and Its Linkage with El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Li L. T., Xu Z. X., Peng D. Z. and Cheng L.
Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, College of Water Sciences,
Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People’s Republic of China

Abstract:Plausible long-term trend of precipitation in China is detected by using Mann-Kendall test.
The results show that the precipitation mainly increased in west part of China and mainly decreased in
east part of China during the past five decades. The teleconnection between precipitation and El
Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated by using Student’s t-test and 62 stations are found to
show significant difference in precipitation between El Niño and La Niña episodes. Most of these
stations concentrate in the Yellow River basin and Shandong province. It indicates that the impact of
ENSO on precipitation in these regions is greater than that in other regions of China. Average
precipitation during El Niño and La Niña episodes, and the entire periods are compared. The results
show that La Niña generally coincides with wetter years and El Niño coincides with drier (wetter) years
in north (south) of Yangtze River.



Spatiotemporal variation and abrupt changes of potential evapotranspiration in the
Wei River basin

Depeng ZUO, Zongxue XU, Xingcai LIU & Lei CHENG
Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences, Ministry of Education, College of Water Sciences,
Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
zongxuexu@vip.sina.com

Abstract:  Potential evapotranspiration is an important component of hydrological cycle and a key input
to hydrological models. Analysis on the spatial distribution and temporal trends of potential
evapotranspiration is of great significance for water resources planning and management, important to
improve the utilization of agricultural water resources, and helpful to understand the spatiotemporal
variation of ecological water requirements, etc. As the largest tributary of the Yellow River, the Wei
River is the ‘Mother River’ of Guanzhong Plain in Shaanxi Province, China. It plays an important role
in the development of West China, the ecosystem health and sustainability of socio-economic
development in the Yellow River basin. In this study, the FAO Penman–Monteith method is used to
estimate potential evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin based on the daily data at 21
meteorological stations during 1959~2008. Spatial distribution of mean annual and seasonal potential
evapotranspiration is analyzed with the Spline interpolation method, temporal trend of annual potential
evapotranspiration at 21 meteorological stations is detected by using non-parametric Mann-Kendall test
method, and abrupt change points of annual potential evapotranspiration are detected using
non-parametric Pettitt test method. Results showed that spatial distribution of mean annual potential
evapotranspiration in the Wei River basin was characterized with high values in east and north, low
values in west and south, decreasing from northeast to southwest and the values varied from 779.1 mm
to 1017.6 mm. Mean seasonal potential evapotranspiration was in the order of summer > spring >
autumn > winter. In recent 50 years, most parts of the Wei River basin showed significant increasing


                                                 - 26 -
trend and middle-downstream region near Xi’an was detected with significant decreasing trend. Two
higher potential evapotranspiration periods and a low value period were detected in the basin. The
variations of seasonal values were basically consistent with annual values. In addition, summer and
spring contributed mostly to annual values. Abrupt changes of annual potential evapotranspiration were
detected in 13 stations at the significant level of 0.05, 15 stations showed obvious increasing abrupt in
1993 and 1994, while 4 stations showed obvious decreasing abrupt in 1978 and 1979.




Abstracts for Session 2

RIVER PROTECTION AND RESTORATION AS KEYS TOWARDS
SUSTAINABLE WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT IN MALAYSIA

Ngai Weng Chan
Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM Penang
Tel: 6-04-6533829
Fax: 6-04-6563707
Email: nwchan@usm.my

Abstract:Rivers perform a variety of extremely important functions in Malaysia such as water supply,
irrigation, habitats for aquatic life, as a means of transportation, a source of food in fisheries,
hydro-electric power, religious purification, natural flood control, and for industries. Unfortunately,
however, Malaysians have abused rivers by using them as easy conduits for the discharge of varying
domestic, commercial, industrial and agricultural effluents. Malaysia is a very rapidly developing
country, with rapid urbanisation and exploding cities. Coupled with this, agriculture expansion and
industrialisation have also rapidly changed the land use from one of mainly forest and food crops to
one of estates (cash crops), urban, commercial and industrial centres. All these developments have
overstressed river systems. As a result, many river basins have reached their limits of water supply and
are now susceptible to water stress and droughts. The occurrence of low flows is exacerbated when
rapid development has produced great amounts of human wastes as well as wastes from all of man’s
activities, including agriculture, industrial, commercial and transportation wastes. This has resulted in a
large number of polluted rivers, some to the extent of being not rehabilitable. While the first option is to
protect rivers via legislation, monitoring, enforcement and wise-use, many rivers can also be restored
and rehabilitated given the right kind of efforts. Restoration involves clean up via dredging the river of
solid waste and silt, improvement of water quality via treatment of wastewater before discharge,
planting wetland plants to purify water, and to beautify strategic stretches of the river for recreational
purposes. River restoration has shown good results as well as some failures. The lesson learnt is that it
should not be a top-down approach nor a bottom-up approach, but a horizontal approach that equally
involves government, private sector and local communities/NGOs participation. Consequently, the
whole approach to river restoration has changed. More and more, the public and water NGOs are
playing a more important role. This is especially so when the community involved is the one that lives

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besides the river. This paper demonstrates that river restoration and rehabilitation can only be
successful with a combined effort between government, private sector, NGOs and the local
communities working together to ensure the cleanliness of the rivers.



Regularity analysis on the regulation of karst groundwater system
in Guizhou,Southwestern China

SHU Long-cang1, KE Ting-ting1,
1 State key laboratory of hydrology-water resource and hydraulic engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, China
budd@hhu.edu.cn

Abstract: The southern of China, though is abundant precipitation and rich water resource, still exists
the dry problem and in-coordination between the runoff and the drought-resistance ability. Why
somewhere can dry in the condition of almost the same precipitation. The reason leading to
above-mentioned problems is the regulating-storing function of karst groundwater system. In the study,
not only qualitative analysis but also quantitative analysis to understand how the aquifer system
regulates the water in different condition, such as in the rocky desert areas and forest covered areas.
The author analyzes the spring’s depletion curve and gets the controlling factors of the shape and the
recession velocity. Then, in order to more deeply understand the physical mechanism, the paper
discusses the different kinds of water how to work in the karst system. It is suggested that the porosity
water plays an important role in storage and adjustment the groundwater. If some factors can make the
pore-water’s attenuation coefficient reduce, it will decrease the impact of the groundwater regulation.
Based on the grey correlation analysis, it determines the relationship between precipitation and the
spring flow. And then, the author calculates the regulating coefficient. The result shows that the
regulating coefficient is lower in the rainy years than in the dry years. Besides, the regulating period is
longer in good covered condition than bad condition. The study can benefit the understanding of
making full use of karst groundwater.



Predicting Daily Potable Water Savings by Using Rainwater Tanks at Urban Scale

HUI XU1. MIKE RAHILLY2 & SHIROMA MAHEEPALA2
1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, College of
Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China
njxh@hhu.edu.cn
2 CSIRO Land and Water, Highett, VIC 3190, Australia

Abstract:The emerging integrated urban water management (IUWM) concept places a greater
emphasis on non-conventional water sources such as recycled wastewater, stormwater and rainwater
collection to help secure water supplies in cities. Systems for rainwater collection, storage and
utilization are commonly used and promoted in many cities. Predicting the performance of large scale
implementation of rainwater tanks is dependent on many factors, which makes the use of computer


                                                   - 28 -
modelling an attractive option. Previous study mainly focused on modelling the performance of a
single tank instead of a number of houses with rainwater tanks. The focus of this research is to predict
the daily potable water savings of a cluster of houses with rainwater tank systems of various tank sizes,
roof areas and end uses based on Melbourne’s precipitation data for 50 years, occupancy distribution
pattern and water demand level. A rainwater tank model based on its behaviour and water balance
principle is used to simulate the process of rainwater tank systems at daily time step both for variable
and uniform scenario. It is found that the average daily potable water savings is 15.8% for variable
scenario and 18.8% for uniform scenario.



Impacts of climate change on the availability of water resources and the water
resources planning

Xiang ZHANG1, Yanfei CHEN1, Jun XIA2, Qingchun yang1
1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,
Wuhan 430072, China
 zhangxiang@whu.edu.cn
2. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related land Surface Processes, IGSNRR, CAS,
Beijing100101,China

Abstract:Currently, the water availability and water supply and demands that are directly used in
planning of water resources development and management are seldom considered, although they are
also sensitive to the climate change. So the application of climate change researching results in the
planning of water resources development and management is facing challenge. Taking the upstream
watershed in Hanjiang basin as an example. SWAT model was used to simulate the monthly
averaging runoff and the amounts of ecological water demands in stream is also estimated under the
current situation and future situation considering the impact of climate change in order to evaluate the
available water resources for the local users and the transportation project. The results show that the
exploitation and utilization of the surface water resources of the Han River basin is rational and
moderate utilization at a sustainable level at present and in the near future.



River basin water resources allocation and sustainable management: key issues and
challenges

Liying yang, xinyi xu & hongrui wang
Key Laboratory for water and Sediment Science, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University,
Beijing 100875, China
yangliyingwater@163.com

Abstract: River basin Water Resources Allocation and Management Policy through the three
development phases is improved and sustainable WR management to maximize social, environmental
and economic benefits of water use. Based on the review and assessment of international practices in
river basin Water Resources Allocation in selected countries and river basins, a comparison of various


                                                  - 29 -
methodologies and models of WR allocation and documentation of best practices have been completed.
Administrative allocation and market-based allocation are the two main allocation mechanisms.
Formulating the river basin water resources allocation planning should be confronted with the
hydrological variability, accurate water resources assessment, and agreements or shares among the
different governments etc. Due to the key issues and challenges in developing river basin water
allocation, three steps were proposed: technical Analysis, stakeholder consultation and government
decision, implementation and administration of the water allocation scheme.



Anthropogenic Impacts on Water Quality and Water Resources of the Pahang River,
Malaysia.

MOHD SHALAHUDDIN ADNAN1, Yukihiro shimatani2 & ZULKAFLI ABD RASHID3
Urban and Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka,
819-0395, Japan
mohdshalahuddin@yahoo.com
Urban and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kyushu University, Fukuoka,
819-0395, Japan
shimatani@civil.kyushu-u.ac.jp
Freshwater Fisheries Research Centre, Glemi, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
zulkaflirashid@dof.gov.my


Abstract:River water quality in the Pahang River and its adjacent tributaries are facing degradation in
their quality due to the increasing of anthropogenic activities along the river bank. This study was
initiated with the aims to investigate the effects of human activities and its impacts on water quality and
aquatic life. The spatial and temporal changes, as well as the human activities along this river are
determined by analyzing and calculating the water quality Index (WQI) and applying statistical
approach name as principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis (CA) to explore the relation
between anthropogenic activities and environmental variables. From the obtained result, we find out
that, the WQI was highly correlated with the activities along the river bank. Thereby, human
disturbance has severely degraded the water quality and ecosystem integrity and thereby depleted our
water resources. In addition, we speculate the significant decreasing trend between upstream and
downstream of the Pahang River. Thus, the serious mitigation steps should be proposed to protect our
resources.



Effect of shallow groundwater on near-surface heat island effect

ZHI-MIN FU1, YAN XIANG2
1. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
e-mail: zimingfier@163.com
2. Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China

Abstract:Aiming at the lack of groundwater effect factors in land surface process modeling, the


                                                   - 30 -
concept of groundwater heat island effect is put forward and studied systematically. First, based on the
soil and hydrological experimental data of the typical area in North China, the data mining technology
is used, which shows that the groundwater is one of the main influencing factors of temperature
changes. The concept of groundwater heat island effect is established with the catastrophe theory, and
the affecting range of the groundwater changes to the climate change is studied. Finally, the function
between temperature and groundwater level of the testing station area is simulated by the numerical
model, which is used for drawing the groundwater heat island effect chart. The result shows that the
groundwater heat island effect can be more obviously represented by the non-peaked heat island effect
chart without cusp. The research also shows that the over-extraction groundwater is one of the factors
influencing urban heat island effect. It is a beneficial supplement to the research of the evolution law of
the groundwater environment and climate, which is very important for the study of groundwater.



Spatial distribution of water consumption and deficit of main crops in Inner
Mongolia Autonomous Region, China

JIAJIA SUN1,2, YONGHUA ZHU1,2, HAISHEN LÜ1,2, Liliang Ren1,2, JUN WANG2, HAOZHE GONG1,2
& HUIHUI WANG1,2
1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Naijing, 210098, China
gaga0312@126.com
2 College of Hydrology-Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

Abstract:This paper focuses on five main crops in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Inner
Mongolia), paddy (Oryza), wheat (Triticum aestivum), maize (Zea mays), millet (Setaria italica), and
soybean (Glycine max). Depending on the method of Yin, Z. Q. in Study on water consumption and
deficiency of main crops in northeastern China, water consumptions and deficits of five main crops in
2008 are analyzed. Combining the effects of precipitation, the results reflect that: (1) Paddy should be
cultivated mainly in southeastern areas of Inner Mongolia, and its total planting area should be properly
reduced. (2) Wheat is suitable to be cultivated in middle of Hulunbeier, Xingan League, Tongliao,
Chifeng, east of Xilinguole League and Huhhot. (3) Maize should be cultivated in east of Hulunbeier.
(4) Millet should be cultivated on large areas in west of Xilinguole League, north of Wulanchabu,
Bayannaoer, Wuhai and Alashan League. (5) Soybean is adaptable to cultivation in the whole region,
while Baotou and Erdos enjoy the priority.



Response of Soil Moisture under Different Crop Planting to Precipitation in Central
Hill Region of Sichuan Basin

Xunjian Long1,2, Chuan Liang1, Chunmin Zhang3 & Xiejing Zhao4
1College of Water Resource and Hydropower Institute, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065,
P.R.China; lmcx402331@foxmail.com
2Chongqing Water Resources and Electric Engineering College, Chongqing 402160, P.R.China;
3Yongchuan Water Resources Bureau, Chongqing 402160, P.R.China;


                                                   - 31 -
4Soil and Fertilizer Institute of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Chengdu 610066, P.R.China

Abstract:Soil moisture is one of the key factors which can limit crop gowing. Based on the
observation data of soil moisture and precipitation, during the 2005-2007 growing seasons, in the
village of Jielin about 10 km south of Dongxi town in northeast Sichuan hilly area, the relationship is
analyzed between siol moisture and precipitation under two crops which were farmed in conservational
farming method. The crops planting were green pepper in ridge and wheat ridge in ground grid and
solitary wheat, respectively. Both the duration and quantity of rainfall were considered. The statistics
results of soil moisture showed that the change range of solitary wheat was 20.98. For the precipitation
last for different time, each crop presented respective changing speed, but the total trend were gradually
decrease. In addition, comparation of different precipitation years showed that the average soil moisture
has different change patterns.



Effects of the spatial and temporal variability of land use and precipitation on stream


Jin-tao Xu, You-peng Xu, Xian Luo
School of Geographic and Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China
taockie@yahoo.com.cn

Abstract: This paper presents the findings of a study which has investigated the effects of land use and
precipitation space-time variability upon the stream quality of Xitiaoxi watershed, located in the
southwest of Taihu basin. A variety of hydrological variables and water quality parameters were
monitored at some gauging stations and other selected control sections in the past several decades.
Based on this, the effects of the spatial distribution of land use and precipitation are discussed by
geospatial analysis in ArcGIS and ArcSWAT model. The spatial variability of the data used in this study
includes 6 land use patterns (Arable land, orchard, forest, build-up land, water body and bare land) and
precipitation of 17 rainfall gauging stations. The land use and precipitation data of 2002 and 2008 are
used to explore the temporal evolution of stream quality. Great changes have taken place in the
underlying surface since 2002 as a result of intensive human activities. The precipitation data of 2002
and 2008 represent two entirely different monthly distribution patterns. With the 20 sections as
subwatershed outlets, the watershed was divided into 20 subwatersheds in ArcSWAT. The contaminant
concentrations including COD, BOD, DO, NH4-N, TN and TP of the 12 times sampling at each of the
20 monitoring sections are compared analyzed. The land use structure and change of each
subwatershed, together with the spatial variability and monthly precipitation distribution of
precipitation is concerned. The results show that: (1) the land use structure of each subwatershed and
spatial variability of precipitation are the main causes of the spatial variation of stream quality; (2) the
monthly precipitation distribution pattern is the main cause of temporal variation of stream quality. This
paper probes into the comprehensive effects of the spatial and temporal variability of land use and
precipitation by quantitative methodology. The results obtained from this study provide supports for
water resources management and water environment protection under the rapid urbanization
background. They also provide insights on the relevance of water resources sustainability and
harmonious coexistence between man and nature.


                                                   - 32 -
Abstracts for Session 3

Drainage Scavenger Tube wells can Sustain Rural Livelihoods: Evidence from Sindh
Pakistan

BAKHSHAL KHAN LASHARI1
Professor, Institute of Irrigation and Drainage Engg, Mehran University of Engg and Tech Jamshoro,
Sindh, Pakistan. Email: bakhshall@yahoo.com
SHAFI MOHAMMAD KORI2
Associate Professor, Institute of Irrigation and Drainage Engg, Mehran University of Engg and Tech
Jamshoro, Sindh, Pakistan.

Abstract:Pakistan is an agriculture country. The supply of irrigation water to crops is being made
through network of surface irrigation system and groundwater. The left Bank of Lower Indus covers
administrative boundaries of ten districts which includes districts of Nawabshah and Sanghar.
Government of Sindh Province installed more than 350 scavenger (saline and fresh bores togather)
tubewells in Districts Nawabshah and Sanghar for the main objectives to provide drainage and to
recover shallow fresh groundwater for irrigation supplements. The study was carried out in command
area of 79 tube wells of District Nawabshah to examine the effect of these tube wells on sustainable
rural livelihood of irrigated Agriculture Community.
      The continuous pumping from the scavenger tube wells for more than two days indicated that
there was no any significant change in water quality thus it is concluded that the scavenger tube well is
one of the good methods to control saltwater movement in to fresh water zone by balancing or keeping
interface at constant level provided that the ratio of saline water to fresh water pumping is 1:1.
      Pre-project findings reveal that 91 percent of irrigated agricultural land was under severe water
logging situation and 9 percent area was moderately water logging. The recorded average water table
depth was less than 0.15 m. The cropping intensity was recorded less than 30% and the maximum
yield of major crops such as cotton, wheat and rice was 1080, 1400 and 1400 kg/acre and the maximum
land value was less than Rs. 40000 per acre. The women and children were the most affected because
more than 85% rural women were engaged in agriculture activities.
      Post project (1999-2007) results indicated that the average water table depth was below 1.5 m
depth from the surface. However, the categorically decrease in water table was: 60 percent area was
below 1.75 m depth and 40 percent area was between 0.75 to 1.5 m depth. The maximum crop yield of
major crops such as cotton, wheat and rice was increased to 148%, 55% and 55% respectively and the
cropping intensity was increased to 149%. The land value of agriculture command area was also
increased to more than Rs. 150,000 per acre (274%).
      Operation and maintenance of tube wells was determined as Rs. 315/acre which includes charges
of electricity, person deployed for operation, maintenance of tube well and disposal channels. Presently,
this all cost is being borne by the government of Sindh. The influence of reverse seepage of saline
water from the disposal channels has been investigated which indicated that when channels were
constructed above ground surface level then the seepage of saline water affected to about 30 m width in

                                                  - 33 -
each side of channel area (Kori etal 2009).
      It is concluded that the scavenger tube well was good approach to control water logging, protect
salt water intrusion in to fresh water zone, increase cropping intensity and sustain rural livelihood of
irrigated agriculture community. Further, if the operation and maintenance is given to the farmer
community then it would be unacceptable to the farmer community because its operation and
maintenance is beyond the scope of farmer due to cost and technicality. Also the scavenger tube wells
maintain saline-fresh water interface unchangeable.



Status of Spate Irrigation Systems in Sindh Province of Pakistan

Fateh M. Mari and Yameen Memon
Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, SAU, Tandojam, Pakistan fatehpk@yahoo.com, Chief
Executive, Management Development, Centre, Hyderabad, Pakistan

Abstract:Spate irrigation is system for management and use of rain water and hill torrents that is
unique to semi-arid environments. Under spate system, earthen diversion weirs are constructed across
the hill torrents to regulate the water for various uses including agriculture and ground water recharging
through field channels. These field channels are constructed on appropriate places and sides of the
spate river. These channels carry flood water the command areas for field irrigation. The weir sites on
steep gradient of the hill torrent are usually not constructed in order to avoid the uncontrollable flows.
Communities using traditional technology usually build these diversion structures and weirs and the
water conveyance systems. Communities’ labor contribution is proportional to the size the land on the
spate river, command area or their water share. Embankments around agricultural lands to store the
flood water are also constructed by communities. Spate irrigation system, despite of its large coverage
and economic importance in Pakistan, is relatively overlooked area which is less understood even
amongst the technical experts Thus, its development, water regulations and rights as well as the land
and water tenure systems are yet to be developed and defined. The aim of the paper is to explore and
document various aspects and dimensions of spate farming in Sindh province of Pakistan.



A Real Time Opeartion Model for Water Rights Management

HANG ZHENG, ZHONGJING WANG & SIYI HU
State Key Laboratory Of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghu University, Beijing 100084, China
zhenghang00@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

Abstract:Water rights allocation in a river basin is customarily determined based on long-term mean
water resources; however, real-time variability of water availability caused by hydrological uncertainty
should also be considered in order to keep an effective and flexible allocation policy. This paper
summarized a framework of the real-time water rights operation and proposed a modified rule for water
reallocation real-timely based on the common rule used in China, Applying the framework and the
models in the Shiyang River Basin, it indicates that the annual water rights allocated by the modified
rule is more stable for the social-economic water use, and leads to a more acceptable water supply,


                                                  - 34 -
which would provide an effective method for the water rights sustainable operation in the Shiyang
River Basin, and likewise present a useful reference for water resources management in the water
deficient regions of China.



Scale-dependent Water Use Assessment with Improved SWAT Model in Rice-based
Irrigation System

JIANPENG WANG, YUANLAI CUI
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,
Wuhan 430072, China
jianpeng83@gmail.com

Abstract:Water cycle under two different irrigation methods, alternate wetting & drying (AWD) and
continuous flooding (CF), were simulated in Yangshudang small watershed, Zhanghe Irrigation System,
China. The study area was divided into 5 scales according to single or nested sub-basins along main
channel from upstream to downstream. Then water accounting methodology was used to analyze the
variation of water accounting indicators and how irrigation method influenced on them in different
scales. The results indicate that ET of rice are almost equal under two irrigation methods, but 20%
water evaporation decrease, runoff and seepage also decrease under AWD, which suggests that rainfall
use efficiency can be promoted without reducing rice yield. Depleted fractions of gross inflow
(DFgross) and available water (DFavailable) mainly show a trend of decrease at first and then increase
with the increasing of the scales. Process fractions of gross inflow (PFgross) and available water
(PFavailable) decrease substantially firstly and then increase slowly, when scale reaching to about 3500
ha they decrease slowly again. Process fraction of depleted water (PFdepleted) has the same decrease
trend at first, but then decreases slowly with increasing of scales. Water productivity of ET (WPET) has
a tiny variety with scales change, but water productivity of gross inflow (WPgross) decreases
substantially at first and increases slowly until scale reaching to about 3500 ha, then back to decrease
slowly again. Water accounting indicators under AWD are higher than those under CF generally,
because gross water is reduced since sub-surface inflow reduced under AWD. But there is still no
remarkable difference on WPET and PFdepleted between AWD and CF, because ET of rice has no
significant difference in generally.



System dynamics modelling of water and salt balance of Bosten Lake in northwest
China: implications for ecologically sustainable management

CAIJUN WANG1, YUFENG LUO2, 3*, WEIGANG WANG2, & BIN HAN2,3
1. China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, Beijing100048, China
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, China
3. College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098,
China
yfluo@hhu.edu.cn


                                                 - 35 -
Abstract:Salinisation of Bosten Lake threatens the eco-system in the Kaidu-Kongque Basin in
Northwest China. A water-salt balance model of Bosten Lake is helpful to understand inherent
mechanism of salinisation and develop appropriate water management strategies. A system dynamics
(SD) model was developed to simulate water and salt balance of Bosten Lake using a commercial
system dynamics modeling environment, Vensim. The model was used to investigate the optimal
watertable for salinisation control and investigate strategies for sustainable management under different
scenarios. Through scenario analysis, we suggest more water be pumped to Kongque River or diverted
to Tarim River for irrigation or ecological restoration to lower the water level and reduce evaporation
losses during high inflow years. As for low inflow, increasing inflow through pumping groundwater
and reducing irrigation diversion from Kaidu River should be an effective way for avoiding high salt
concentration. Other scenarios can be easily evaluated by using the framework presented in this paper.




Abstracts for Session 4

Evaluation of Agricultural Non-Point Pollution in Baiyangdian Lake Basin Using
SWAT Model

Kangning CHEN1. Geya BIAN2
Remote Sensing Technology Application Research Center, China Institute of Water Resources and
Hydropower Research, Beijing 100048, China
mcfcchen@gmail.com
2 Department of Irrigation and Drainage, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower
Research, Beijing 100048, China

Abstract:This paper selected the Baiyangdian lake basin as the objective study area and carried out an
agricultural non-point pollutants simulation based on the SWAT model. With the support of remote
sensing and related geographical information, stream network, sub–basins division, land use and land
cover distribution, soil distribution, were prepared for SWAT model. Gauged precipitation, runoff, and
pollutants data from the year of 1998 to 1999 were adopted to calibrate and validate the SWAT model
parameters. Three scenarios viz. the installation of vegetable filter strip, the preventive soil loss
measures, and the fertilizing control measures for crops were applied and analyzed. The results showed
that the operation viz. the contour tillage, strip cropping on the contour, and terrace systems in the
scenario II was the most effective operation and the efficiency was 29.9%, 17.3%, and 16.9% for
sediment, TN, and TP loadings respectively.




River water quality assessment based on principal component analysis

GUIPING LI & ZHONGBO YU
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,

                                                  - 36 -
Nanjing 210098 , China
li_gui_ping@126.com

Abstract:This paper analysed the change of physico-chemical variables of the main tributaries around
Lake Taihu. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to distinguish the primary impact factors
of the water quality. The spatial-tempral distribution of principal components was constructed to
describe the water quality levels. The result elucidated that NH3-N, NO3-N, TN, TP and BOD5 played
a principal role in the water quality assessment. NH3-N is the dominant impact factor in the north of
Lake Taihu. The east of the lake is mainly influenced by TN and CODMn. Rivers in the south and the
west are mainly impacted by TN, NO3-N. The application of PCA is an effective assessment tool to
indentify the rank of rivers. Most of polluted rivers are located in the north of Lake Taihu while the
rivers with the best quality are located in the southeast.



Equation Chapter 1 Section 1Experimental study on mechanism of the nutrient
export in a small watershed

Hongwei Liu1, Zhongbo Yu2,3, Fei Gao4, Xing Chen2, Fenghua Gao2 & Xingping Wang2
1 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029;
liu2000.cn@gmail.com
2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources; HoHai University; Nanjing 210098;
3 Department of Geoscience, University of Nevada, Las Vegas, NV 89154-4010, USA;
4 Qinhuai River Hydraulic Management Agency of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing, 210001

Abstract:In order to understand the producing mechanism of the agricultural non-point source
pollution which is one of the crucial contributions to the water eutrophication, a series of field
experiments were carried out in the Meilin watershed in the southwest of the Taihu lake. Meteorologic
parameters (i.e. precipitation), streamflow and water quality were observed in the watershed outlet.
Five testing plots for different kinds of landuses were set up for analyzing the quantity and quality of
the runoff and soil moisture dynamics within the watershed. Impact factors and mechanism of the
non-point source pollution outputs were also examined on both watershed and plot scales. The field
observation and analysis result show that the concentration of the contaminants was high at the
watershed outlet, at the beginning of the storm events; the peek of the concentration appears earlier
than the discharge peek; the concentrations vary quite differently during the storm and recession
periods. At the beginning of the storm events rain-runoff process brings contaminants mainly through
the erosion while the output of the contaminants is controlled mainly by the eluviation after the storm.
The study on the testing plots in different landuses indicates that the impacting factors of the non-point
source contaminants include the erosion and eluviation effects of the rain-runoff process, as well as the
landuse/vegetation and farm management. Based on the study on the relationship of the pollution load
and impact factors, surface non-point source pollution load was evaluated in the watershed, and the
result shows 70%~80% nitrogen and 80%~90% or even more phosphorus output with the surface
runoff. The experimental and analysis results in this study could help improve the non-point sources
pollution simulation and identify the dominate output region. Furthermore, it could provide valuable
information for decision making on the land and water resource management.


                                                  - 37 -
Study on water quality prediction model of centralized drinking water wellhead

Guohua Fang, FENGCUN yU
College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower, Hohai University, Naijing 210098, China
fcyhhu@yahoo.com.cn


Abstract: SVM and BP water quality prediction model are established following the basic theories
for support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (BP). RS-SVM and RS-BP water
quality prediction model are established combining with the complementary nature of rough set (RS),
support vector machine (SVM) and artificial neural network (BP). These models are applied to the
Gucheng Lake centralized drinking water wellhead. The results show that water quality prediction
model based SVM has the higher accuracy than the water quality prediction model based on the BP of
predicted, so the RS-SVM prediction model is the best to predicate water quality.



Using carbon mitigation to restore water quality in large deforested watersheds

Harper, R.J. (Murdoch University; r.harper@murdoch.edu.au) and Smettem, K.R.J. (Centre for
Ecohydrology, The University of Western Australia; smettem@sese.uwa.edu.au).


Abstract:Water quality often declines following the deforestation of watersheds and the development
of agriculture. Although it is well established that these problems can be reversed by reforestation, there
are often limitations on the amounts of capital available for this to occur. Reforestation also results in
carbon mitigation, either via the sequestration of carbon or the substitution of carbon through the
production of bio-energy. Various market-based trading schemes are in development. Broadscale
reforestation for carbon mitigation may thus provide a means of restoring water quality in large
deforested catchments.
      In this paper we describe the links between carbon mitigation and water quality improvement
using three case-studies from south-western Australia where different styles of reforestation have
affected watershed hydrology and water quality. In this region the major issue is the remobilization of
salts following deforestation and the salinization of streams, in watersheds of up to 300-500 km2. The
examples are: (1) broad-scale reforestation with Eucalyptus globulus which has resulted in the
restoration of water quality in the Denmark Catchment and modelled estimates of the amounts of
reforestation required to restore water quality to a potable standard in other watersheds, (2) the use of
short rotations (3-5 years) of fast growing eucalypts to remove stored soil water and restore watershed
water balances and (3) the establishment of trees as a carbon mitigation option on previously salinized
land.




                                                   - 38 -
Abstracts for Session 5

Evaluation of ecological instream flow of the Pearl River basin, South China
Qiang Zhang1,2, Ying Cui1,2, Yongqin David Chen3, Xiaohong Chen1,2
1.Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275,                 Formatted: Bullets and Numbering

China;
2.Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education
Institute, Guangzhou 510275, China;
3.Department of Geography and Resource Management, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong
Kong, China.

Abstract:The Pearl River basin is characterized by humid climate and water resource is abundant, but
also suffers water deficit due to heavy water pollution. Altered hydrological cycle due to climate
changes may cause alterations of hydrological processes and which has the potential to negatively
influence the ecological environment of the Pearl River basin. In this paper, the monthly runoff data at
11 major hydrological stations are analyzed to evaluate ecological instream flow of the Pearl River
basin using 5 hydrological methodologies, i.e. the minimum monthly average flow method, the
improved 7Q10 method, NGPRP method, the monthly minimum ecological flow calculation method
and the monthly frequency calculation method. The results show that the monthly minimum ecological
flow estimation method and the monthly frequency calculation technique are proved to be the right
choice in terms of computation of minimum ecological flow and optimal ecological flow respectively
of the Pearl River basin. The estimated ecological streamflow can be classified as the medium or
optimum ranges when compared to those by Tennant method. Besides, the results of this study indicate
that the probability of 50% that the ecological streamflow is satisfied should be environment-friendly
streamflow variations. Furthermore, this study also provides a reference technical framework with
respect to the evaluation of ecological water requirement based on monthly runoff data, and is also of
scientific and practical merits in basin scale water resource management in the Pearl River basin.



Spatial variation of health risk for drinking groundwater
in Mingshan County, Ya’an,China

Fuquan Nia,b*, LIU Guo-dong a,Yaosheng Tanc, Liping Xub, Yu Dengd
a
 State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu,
610065, P.R. China
bCollege of Information & Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University, Ya’an, 625014, P.R. China
cCollege of Civil Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072, P.R. China
dKey Laboratory of Sichuan Agricultural Environment Engineering, Sichuan Agricultural University,
Ya’an, 625014, P.R. China

Abstract:In recent years, rural drinking water safety has become a growing concern in China. The
present study aims to the core problems in rural drinking water safety in Mingshan County, Ya’an,
China where groundwater is used as drinking water. The objective of this study was to determine
groundwater quality and to assess the health risk of pollution in groundwater in Mingshan County,

                                                 - 39 -
Ya’an, China. Over the 19-year period from 1991 to 2010, the total number of groundwater samples
was 47.This study inspected source water quality, applied the health risk assessment model
recommended by U.S.EPA, and calculated carcinogenic risk, non-carcinogenic risk and total risk of
factors exceeding standards. Health risk thematic maps of carcinogenic risk and non-carcinogenic risk
caused by single factor and their combination can be obtained with the method of inverse-distance
weighting interpolation (IDW) and the function of geo-statistical analysis in ArcGIS (Geographic
Information System, GIS).
     The results showed, carcinogenic risk caused by chemicals in drinking groundwater is low, which
is in the acceptable interval in risk management both at home and abroad for years. However,
non-carcinogenic risk is high and number of sampling sites with risk values exceeding the standards
amounted to 30, in which, non-carcinogenic risk of Cr (6+), nitrate, fluoride and Fe of number 43, 46,
74, 64, 67, 50 were the sources that cause total health risk high.
This study revealed the risk level of drinking groundwater quality, orders of treatment on pollutants and
provided a scientific basis for groundwater management in this area.



Research on response models of aquatic ecosystem with Hydrological regime
changing——key study of east river basin

DONGWEI CHEN, XIAOHONG CHEN, LAN KONG, JIAN DU
Center for Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangdong Guangzhou
510275,China
44344079@qq.com

Abstract:  Under the influence of climate change and human activities,the Hydrological regime of river
has changed tremendously.This paper reviews research status in the world on application of
hydrological hydrodynamic models,applies ecological hydrology methods to simulating the response to
the aquatic ecosystem with the change of river hydrological regime and constructs the response models
of aquatic ecosystem of river hydrological regime.With the use of RAV method,it draws a conclusion
that about the 55.6% Hydrological regime of Boluo hydrological station in East river has changed
because of the development of cascade reservoirs of East river basin.The theme of this paper is” The
sustainable development of ecological model based on water ecosystem health and harmonious
development of economy, society and ecological in East river basin”.



Computation method of instream ecological flow based on physical habitat
simulation

JIAN LI 1, 2, ZIQIANG XIA 1, 2
1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources And Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing, 210098, China
e-mail: lijian2750@gmail.com
2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing ,210098, China



                                                  - 40 -
Abstract:   The principles and methods of instream ecological flow based on physical habitat simulation
(PHABSIM) were introduced, and the middle reach of the Yangtze River was taken as a case study for
the minimum and optimal ecological flow calculation. The differences between the result of physical
habitat simulation and that of the traditional hydrological methods were compared and analyzed to
verify the rationality of the habitat model. The results of the physical habitat simulation show that
during four major Chinese carps spawning time from April to June, the minimum ecological flow of the
middle reach of Yangtze River is 4570 m3/s, and optimal ecological flow is 12000~15500m3/s. These
results are within the scope of the value which calculated by traditional hydrological methods, and
seems to be more reasonable. The output of this paper could provide suggestions for fish habitat
protection and water resources management, and references for ecological regulation of the Three
Gorges Project and Gezhouba dam.



Influence of the hydraulic engineering construction in the upper reaches on the
eco-environmental flow of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River-based on
the improved SWAT model

Nan Zhang1,2,Ziqiang Xia1,2, Feng Huang1,2 , Hong Jiang3
(1.State key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing, 210098,China;
2.College of Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China;
3. Yellow River basin Water Resources protection bureau, Zhengzhou, 450003)
Zhangnan19810202@126.com

Abstract:The impact of Hydraulic engineering construction and human activities on hydrology has
become a hot issue in social development. The water cycle model of the upper reaches of the Yangtze
River(URYR) is established based on the improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model.
Influence of the hydraulic engineering construction in the URYR on the eco-environmental flow of the
middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River is analyzed separately in 4 scenarios of the reservoir
combination of the URYR:(1)no reservoir is considered;(2)all reservoirs, constructed, being
constructed and planed to be constructed, are considered; (3)reservoirs that have been constructed are
considered;(4)reservoirs that have been constructed and being constructed are considered. The results
show that reservoir operation of the URYR decreases the inflow of TGR at the end of flood season and
increases that in dry season, and makes the start time of TGR store water in advance. In flood season,
the evaluation of scenario 2 is good to maximum, scenario 3 is minimum to maximum, scenario 4 is
fair to maximum; dry season period, the evaluation of scenario 2 is good to optimal range, scenario 3 is
fair to optimal, scenario 4 is good to outstanding; In water storage period, the evaluation of scenario 2,
3, 4 are optimal range. The evaluation of the Tennant method is excelled to the other scenarios when all
the reservoirs are considered. Results of this study could provide some references to the regional water
resources management and reservoir ecological operation with the influence to eco-environmental flow
of the low reaches, when the schema reservoir constructed in the URYR.




                                                  - 41 -
Field observation of water temperature profile in large reservoirs with different
features

lu baohong1,2, yuee kang1, HANWEN ZHANG1, Gu Huanghe1, Yan Jinxiu1, Li Cancan1, Cao Zhen1,
Yeou-koung Tung3
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing210098;
lubaohong@126.com
State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098
Department of Civil Engineering, HongKong University of Science and Technology, Clear Water Bay,
KowLoon, Hong Kong

           The
Abstract: study considers 3 reservoirs with water depths from 20-190 meters and different features
to analyze the effects of moving boat, observation duration and air temperature on the
water-temperature readings. It was found that water temperature measurement should be completed in
109min and the variation of air temperature was not larger than 6℃ while the boat moved in the range
with radius 25m. The deviation of temperature readings from the uniform-temperature-layer in the
same vertical is less than 0.05℃. The field study in Xin'anjiang Reservoir shows that (a) the main
factors influencing the surface water-temperature was air temperature, (b) the vertical temperature
gradient of thermocline was controlled by water intake of hydropower station and air temperature.; and
(c) the hypolimnion was located at the bottom of the large reservoir and was less influenced by external
environment with a minimum temperature gradient less than 0.01℃∕m.



Impacts of Three Gorges-Gezhouba reservoir cascade on the stream temperature
regime of the Yangtze River

MEIXIU YU1,2, GUOBIN LU1,2, QIONGFANG LI 1,2
1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, China
meixiuyu1985@gmail.com
2 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

Abstract:The Yangtze River (Changjiang) is the third largest river in the world, and the alterations in
its hydrological regime have global-scale impacts. However, with population increase and economic
growth, the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River has been altered to some extent by human
activities, particularly dam construction. The alteration in the stream temperature regime of the Yangtze
River will unavoidably influence its biological processes. To assess dam-induced alterations in the
stream temperature regime of the Yangtze River quantitatively, the Gezhouba reservoir and the Three
Gorges reservoir have been selected as case study sites. On the basis of stream temperature time series,
the changes of annual, seasonal, monthly, daily stream temperature regimes in different sub-periods
were investigated and the driving forces were explored. The output of the paper could provide
references for the assessment of impacts of dam construction on the health and stability of the Yangtze
River ecosystem.

                                                  - 42 -
Abstracts for Session 6

Strategic treatment of the hydrological uncertainty based on comparison of the
separated runoff components

Kairong Lin1,2,3, Qiang Zhang1,2, Tao Jiang1,2 & Xiaohong Chen1,2
1 Department of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P. R
China;
2 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Security in Southern China of Guangdong High Education
Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, P. R China;
3 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University,
Wuhan, 430072, P. R China.
E-mail: linkr@mail.sysu.edu.cn

Abstract:Treatment of uncertainty of hydrological modelling and forecasting has been of theoretical
and practical importance in hydrological sciences and water resources management. Based on the idea
that more inputs of hydrological information can produce less uncertainty of outputs, this study aims to
discuss the strategic treatment of the hydrological uncertainty by taking the TOPMODEL as a case
model. The continuous base flow hydrograph separation method based on the Horton infiltration
capacity curve is applied to compare and analyze the separated runoff components. The hydrological
data are from the Yangping catchment located at the upper Wulang River, a branch of the Jinshajiang
River in China. The results indicate improved certainty of the modelling results based on the proposed
procedure.



Uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL model based on GLUE method using different
likelihood function

YAO Xi-liang1 HUANG Guo-ru 1 LIN Kai-rong2
1. School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou
510640, China;
huanggr@scut.edu.cn
2. Center of Water Resources and Environment, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China

Abstract:The GLUE methodology is applied to the uncertainty analyses of TOPMODEL model, with
the Xixia catchment in Danjiang River as the research area. The uncertainties of different likelihood
functions, model parameters and prediction interval are analyzed. It is showed that the likelihood
values for different functions have differences and similarities, besides, the distribution of each
different likelihood function and the relationship between the parameters and the likelihood measure
affected by shaping factor. Lastly the prediction interval characteristics of 90% confidence level at
different threshold values are calculated. It is showed that the lower the threshold value is, the higher
the reliability of the prediction interval is, and meanwhile the larger the range of uncertainty is. It is
synthesized that the many factors should be considered in selecting likelihood function and threshold
value.

                                                  - 43 -
Study on a concentration calculation method considering stochastic and uncertainty

SUN YINGNA1, RUI XIAOFANG2
1College of Water Conservancy, Heilongjiang University, Harbin 150086, China
ynsunchina@yahoo.com.cn
2College of Water Resources and Environment, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098,china

Abstract:  Concentration system is a stochastic system whose main sources of stochastic uncertainty are
from uncertain input of hydrological model such as hydro-meteorological data, model structure
uncertainty and model parameters uncertainty. Based on the Nash model with parameter n = 3, using
stochastic differential equations theory, the stochastic uncertainty of concentration system resulted from
model input was studied. The results showed that not only the mean solution process of discharge
process but also the deviation degree of errors could get through the concentration calculation method
considering stochastic input. And then the probability distribution of discharge process could be
obtained by using the variance of discharge at each moment, which could provide the degree of
uncertainty of prediction to predict the risk of loss in flood control decision-making.



Uncertainty Analysis of Hydrological Model Using Multi-criteria Likelihood
Measure Within the GLUE Method

LIRU ZHANG1,2 , YIQING GUAN3 ,YONGHUI HE1&SIJUN DAI4
1.Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029,China
zhangliru820612@yahoo.com.cn
2.Research Center for Climate Change, MWR, Nanjing, 210029,China
3.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering., Hohai Univ.,
Nanjing210098, China
4. Bureau of Yuyao Reservoir Management, Yuyao Zhejiang315403

Abstract:Single-objection criterion is often used to assess the adaptability of a model in the past two
decades, but this methodology can’t appropriately show all the characters of hydrology via observed
data at the same time. The GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology for
uncertainty analysis of hydrological model is a good example. Usually the single-objection criterion is
Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient. In this paper, a multi-criteria likelihood measure is present within GLUE
methodology, which consists of peak forecast error, runoff error, peaktime error and Nash-Sutcliffe
coefficient. Based on the Xinanjiang Model, it was applied to LiangHui Reservoir, results show that
this multi-criteria likelihood measure has improved the real uncertainty of hydrological model, which is
very valuable for model calibration and uncertainty study. Comparison confirms that this multi-criteria
GLUE methodology is superior to the single-objection criterion GLUE methodology.




                                                  - 44 -
Abstracts for Session 7

Application of Continuous Time Random Walk Theory to Sorbing Solute Transport
in Soil

Li Ren and Na Li
China Agricultural University

Abstract:Continuous time random walk (CTRW) formulations have been demonstrated to provide a
general and effective approach that quantifies the behavior of solute transport in heterogeneous media
in field, laboratory, and numerical experiments. In this paper we first apply the CTRW approach to
describe the sorbing solute transport in soils under chemical (or) and physical nonequilibrium
conditions by curve-fitting. Results show that the theoretical solutions are in a good agreement with the
experimental measurements. In case that CTRW parameters cannot be determined directly or easily, an
alternative method is then proposed for estimating such parameters independently of the breakthrough
curve data to be simulated. We conduct numerical experiments with artificial data sets generated by the
HYDRUS-1D model for a wide range of pore water velocities (v) and retardation factors (R) to
investigate the relationship between CTRW parameters for a sorbing solute and these two quantities (v,
R) that can be directly measured in independent experiments. A series of best-fitting regression
equations are then developed from the artificial data sets, which can be easily used as an estimation or
prediction model to assess the transport of sorbing solutes under steady flow conditions through soil.
Several literature data sets of pesticides are used to validate these relationships. The results show
reasonable performance in most cases, thus indicating that our method could provide an alternative way
to effectively predict sorbing solute transport in soils. While the regression relationships presented are
obtained under certain flow and sorption conditions, the methodology of our study is general and may
be extended to predict solute transport in soils under different flow and sorption conditions.



A Multiscale Data Integration Method to Saturated Hydraulic Conductivity in Soil

Na Li and Li Ren
China Agricultural University

Abstract:Saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) is one of the most important physical properties of the
soil. Inherent spatial variability of soil properties makes it necessary to obtain sufficient and reliable Ks
in order to reduce the uncertainty in hydrological modeling. In this study, we employ a Bayesian
hierarchical modeling framework combined with upscaling techniques and an efficient adaptive
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, namely, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis
(DRAM), for spatial modeling of fine-scale Ks in soil conditioned on coarse-scale Ks data and some
prior information. Within this hierarchical framework, the posterior distribution of the fine-scale Ks
field is formulated to incorporate all of the conditional information from different scales, which
involves upscaling operators of non-explicit form and especially is high dimensional. The
computational challenge of exploring the posterior distribution with complicated structure is solved by
means of the DRAM algorithm. Two synthetic examples involving integration of two or three different

                                                    - 45 -
scales of conductivity data are used to illustrate the implementation of these approaches. Further
validation is provided using distributed in situ measurements of Ks from soils in Northwest China.
Subsequently, a series of representative numerical experiments are conducted to demonstrate the power
and utility of these approaches under a range of soil conditions with varying levels of spatial
heterogeneity, correlation length, and anisotropy. Overall, the Bayesian hierarchical modeling
framework combined with upscaling techniques and DRAM sampling strategies was shown to be a
viable tool for reconciling different scales of saturated hydraulic conductivity in soil. Our numerical
investigations provide a comprehensive numerical validation of the method, illustrating its applicability
and limitations.



Appliation of the coupled land-surface-hydrology modeling system to the Poyang
Lake Basin, China

Fei Yuan(1), Zhongbo Yu (1), Harald Kunstmann (2), Chuanguo Yang (1), Liliang Ren (1), Benjamin
Fersch (2), Sven Wagner (2)

(1) State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai
University, Nanjing 210098, China
(2) IMK-IFU, Karlesrule Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen 82467, Germany

Abstract:Atmosphere always interacts with land surface in many aspects, especially through the
hydrologic cycle. In order to better depict the physical and chemical processes of climate system,
atmospheric models should not only have sound parameterization schemes on gas, aerosol, cloud,
radiation, transport and meteorological processes, but also include a rational land-surface model that
computes surface energy fluxes, soil and vegetation temperature updates, snowpack, snowfall and
snowmelt processes, and especially surface water, soil water and groundwater dynamics. In this study,
the coupled land-surface-hydrology model system (Noah-LSM-HMS) was developed, which couples
the Noah-LSM landsurface module of the Weather Research and Forecasting system (WRF) with the
large-scale hydrologic model (HMS). Detailed hydrologic processes such as unsaturated-zone soil
moisture dynamics, river/lake-vadose and river/lake-ground water exchange, streamflow routing,
groundwater-table depth and horizontal groundwater flow are explicitly considered in this system. This
system is designed for the interactive meteorology-hydrologic simulations driven by a mesoscale
meteorological model such as WRF. Then Noah-LSM-HMS was applied for streamflow simulations
using the routine meteorological observations over the Poyang Lake Region, China on 10-km grid cells.
The calculated streamflows at 20 streamflow stations are in reasonable agreement with those observed.
Large differences between the simulated and observed streamflows still exist. The possible causes are
not only the probable errors in the model structure, but also the errors in the input meteorological
forcings, especially the input precipitation data. This coupled Noah-LSM-HMS will be linked directly
with WRF to establish a two-way coupled mesoscale meteorology-land-surface-hydrology model
system in the near future.




                                                  - 46 -
Hillslope as basic discretized unit: the scale effects on its geometric factors

Jintao Liu1,2,3* Xi Chen1,3 Jichun Wu2
1State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, People’s Republic of China
2Department of Hydrosciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, People’s Republic of China
3Department of College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +86-025-83786973; fax: +86-025-83786606.
E-mail address: jtliu@hhu.edu.cn (J. T. Liu).

Abstract:Hillslope geometric factors include width function, curvature, slope and length, etc. In this
paper, these characters (e.g. width function and curvature) changing with hillslope scales were
discussed. A digital drainage network automatic extraction tool, DigitalHydro V1.0 was used for
deriving hillslope geometric factors. A 10m x 10m DEM data was created based on the 1:10000
elevation contour maps for Hemuqiao catchment in Tiaoxi River, Taihu basin. Through sub-division of
hillslope into two types as the “headwater hillslope” and the “sideslope hillslope”, the hillslope width
function and curvature distribution were derived. The hillslope width functions are generally parabolic
for both the headwater hillslopes and the sideslope hillslopes. It was found that the peak values for the
hillslope width functions will decline and the PDF curve is then being flattened as the hillslope scale
becomes larger. The averaged shape for the whole catchment as the largest headwater hillslope is
divergent. Hereafter, the overall shape changing with the scale for both types of hillslopes was
discussed. It was suggested that the generally shape of the sideslope hillslopes is concave and divergent
in all the scales listed in Table 1. For headwater hillslopes, if the scale is smaller than a critical value,
e.g. 0.70 km2 for the profile curvature or 1.00 km2 for the contour curvature, the averaged shape is
convex and convergent just the same as one’s intuition. When the scale of the hillslope goes larger than
the critical value, the results are converse.



The application of bi-directional Muskingum water-stage routing model in Caoejiang
River

Qu Simin1,2, Ji Haixiang3, Cui Yanping1,2, Liu Han1,2, Bao Weimin1,2, Shi Peng1,2, Si Wei1,2
1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University,
Nanjing 210098, China;
2 College of Water Resources and Hydrology, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China;
3 Nanjing Automation Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydrology, the Ministry of Water
Resources, Nanjing 210012, China.
 E-mail: wanily@hhu.edu.cn

Abstract:Caoejiang River is a tidal river and the hydrologic system of it is unique as the water-stage
continually changes under the interaction of upper reach flood wave and down stream tide wave.
Consequently, the calculation of the water-stage in the cross-section of Caoejiang River is very
complex. The bi-directional Muskingum water-stage routing model separates the hydrologic processes
of the tidal river into upper reach flood and downstream tidal waves, respectively. Muskingum


                                                    - 47 -
water-stage routing method was first used to calculate the propagation of the flood and tidal waves and
then routed stages are summed up by using different weight factors. All the parameters used in the
model can be adjusted automatically or determined manually. The model was applied in the Caoejiang
River, China for evaluating the tidal effect on the streamflow of different sections in this study. The
results show that the model can be applied successfully with high accuracy and reliability on the
water-stage forecasting in Caoejiang river and not too much parameters needed for model calibration,
displaying the relative advantage of the model.



Effect of calibration data length on performance and optimal parameters of
hydrological model

Chuanzhe Li1*, Hao Wang1, Jia Liu2, Fuliang Yu1, Denghua Yan1, Lu Zhang3
1 Department of Water Resources, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,
Beijing 100038, P.R. China. lichuanzhe@gmail.com
2 Water and Environmental Management Research Centre, Department of Civil Engineering,
University of Bristol
3 CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia.

Abstract: Calibration data length has significant effect on modelling performance and optimal
parameters. How long of the data should be used for model calibration? It’s a key question for
hydrological model users. Especially when model users face the case that applying models in ungauged
or data-limited catchments. In order to assess the effects of calibration data length on the performance
and optimal parameter values of hydrological model in ungauged or data limited catchments (actually,
data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments), we choose to use non-continuous
calibration periods to have more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD model calibration.
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and percentage water balance error (WBE) are used as performance
measures. The Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) optimization method is used to calibrate the
rainfall-runoff models. Different length of data range from 1 year to 10 years randomly sampled used
for study on impact of calibration data length. 55 relatively unimpaired catchments all over Australia
with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and streamflow data are tested to obtain
more general conclusions. The results show that, longer calibration data does not necessarily result in
better model performance. In general, 8 years data chosen randomly are sufficient to obtain steady
estimates of model performance and parameters for SIMHYD model. It is also show that most humid
catchments require fewer calibration data to get good performance and stable parameter values. The
model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than arid catchments. Our results may
have useful and interesting implications in the efficiency of limited observation data used for
hydrological model calibration in different climatic catchments.



Parameterization of land surface processes in the Taihu basin

Xingcai Liu, Zongxue Xu, Liu Liu & Depeng Zuo
College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment


                                                 - 48 -
Sciences, Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China
zongxuexu@vip.sina.com (Zongxue Xu, corresponding author)

           A
Abstract: simplified grid-based land surface model is proposed to estimate actual evapotranspiration,
runoff and soil moisture in the Taihu basin. This model involves influence of land use types on land
surface processes, and particularly depicts the impact of crop on evapotranspiration. Application is
carried out in the Taihu basin in 1981 and several point measurements of evaporation and soil moisture
are used to assess the model performance. Spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration, runoff depth
and soil moisture in the Taihu basin are also mapped. Results show that the model represents land
surface evapotranspiration well and to some degree captures the variation of soil moisture. However,
further improvement is needed to integrate the impact of SVATs-based vegetation types to better
represent the comprehensive land surface characteristics.




Abstracts for Session 8

Assessment of Land Surface Diversions from water balance and remote sensing data

Edraki Masoud, HAFEEZ Mohsin, Sixsmith Josh, Rabbani Ummair, & Chemin Yann
International Centre of Water for Food Security (IC Water), Building 24, Charles Sturt University,
Wagga Wagga , NSW, 2678, Australia
medraki@csu.edu.au

           In
Abstract: the northern catchments of the Murray Darling Basin of Australia, a significant proportion
of total water diversions are from interception of floodwater and overland flow during sporadic storm
events. These diversions (known as Land Surface Diversions or LSD) prevent runoff from entering
natural watercourses or into the floodplain. Due to adverse consequences of prolonged drought in the
Murray Darling Basin, the authorities have imposed a “Cap” on all forms of land surface diversions in
the basin. A project was established in 2008 to compute LSD of six pilot farms to develop a farm water
balance model and compute the LSD using a Remote Sensing (RS) technique coupled with on-ground
hydrologic parameters which were collected through a concurrent monitoring project which also gave
an independent assessment of LSD in order to validate the LSD by the remote sensing project. This
paper reports on the results of LSD estimations for summer and winter crops in the pilot farms during
2007 and 2009 cropping seasons.



Crop classification using per-field method based on ETM+ image and MODIS EVI
time series analysis

RU AN 1, WEI LI 1, HUILIN WANG 2& RENZONG RUAN 1
1 School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, No.1 Xikang Road, Nanjing 210098,
China
email Author 1:anrunj@163.com

                                                  - 49 -
2 School of Geography and Sea Sciences, Nanjing University, No.22 Hankou Road, Nanjing 210093,
China

Abstract : It is important to derive crop type information for the assessment of cropland
evaportranspiration and water management for irrigation area. Remote sensing is one of the most
valuable technologies for this purpose. In the paper, Identification of crops using ETM+, MODIS EVI
time series data and GIS field border data had been investigated. Firstly, crops’ spectral response
signature and MODIS EVI time series features were analyzed in detail to supply knowledge for further
classification. Secondly, field block objects were formed by segmenting ETM+ image in terms of GIS
field border. Standard Nearest Neighbor Fuzzy Classification algorithm was applied for an initial
Per-field classification based on ETM+ and MODIS EVI time series data. Then, the initial
classification result was improved with the aid of the growth phenology of different crops based on
MODIS EVI time series data and their combination. Finally, accuracy assessment of classification
result was performed. It is shown that the crop classification accuracy has been improved by more than
20% compared with that of the supervised maximum likelihood classification method and a per-field
method in which a field block is assigned as the dominant crop class occurring in this field block. The
result indicates that the method proposed in the paper is effective for crop classification.



Estimate soil moisture using trapezoidal relationship between remotely sensed land
surface temperature and vegetation index

Wen Wang, Dui Huang, Xiao-Gang Wang, Yan-Ran Liu, Feng Zhou (State Key Laboratory of
Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China)


Abstract:The trapezoidal relationship between surface temperature (Ts) and vegetation index (VI) was

used to estimate soil moisture in the present study. An iterative algorithm is proposed to estimated the
vertices of the Ts~VI trapezoid theoretically for each grid, and then WDI is calculated for each grid
using MODIS remotely sensed measurements of surface temperature and enhanced vegetation index
(EVI). The capability of using WDI based on Ts~VI trapezoid to estimate soil moisture is evaluated
using soil moisture observations and antecedent precipitation in the Walnut Gulch Experimental
Watershed (WGEW) in Arizona, USA. The result shows that, Ts~VI trapezoid based WDI can well
capture temporal variation in surface soil moisture, but the capability of detecting spatial variation is
poor for such a semi-arid region as WGEW.



Study on land surface hydrologic simulation of Yangtze River basin using the
TRMM-Multi-Satellite Precipitation product

Huanghe GU 1,2, Zhongbo YU 1,2, Chuanguo YANG 1,2, Qin JU 1,2 , Chuan LIANG3
College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098, China;
2. State Key Lab. of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Eng., Hohai Univ., Nanjing 210098,
China;


                                                  - 50 -
3. State Key Lab. of Hydraulics and Mountain River Eng., Sichuan Univ., Chengdu 610065, China)

Abstract:High-quality rainfall information is critical for accurate simulation of runoff and the water
cycle process on the land surface. In situ monitoring of precipitation has a very limited usefulness on
the regional and global scale because of the high spatial and temporal variability of precipitation. It is
unlikely to improve rainfall station network and rainfall radar network in short term in all regions. The
inaccuracy of rainfall in some areas with sparse rainfall stations is bound to bring great uncertainty into
the runoff and water cycle process simulation. On the way to overcome these problems, microwave
remote sensing observations are appropriate for retrieving the spatial and temporal precipitation
coverage because of the global and frequent availability. With the development of the satellite radar
technology, TRMM precipitation data get more and more attention by meteorologists and hydrologists
because of its high temporal (3 hours) and spatial (0.25°×0.25°) resolution. For distributed hydrological
model, the distributed input data is the basic condition for hydrological simulation. This paper
addresses the question of whether remotely sensed precipitation estimates over a catchment can be used
to improve distributed hydrological model water balance computations. The TRMM (Tropical Rainfall
Measuring Mission) precipitation product was introduced into the hydrological cycle simulation for
Yangtze basin, in south China. A tool was developed to interpolate the observations into the same
spatial and temporal resolution with TRMM data and then evaluate the precision of TRMM data from
1998 to 2006. It shows that TRMM rainfall in the moderate-intensity with high accuracy, but
low-intensity and heavy-intensity rainfall with low fidelity. So application of TRMM data as the input
of distributed hydrological model was proposed to the watershed hydrology process simulation and
achieved good results.




Abstracts for Session 9

Trivariate Gaussian copula and Student t copula in multivariate hydrological
drought frequency analysis

SONG-BAI SONG 1. JU-LIANG JIN 2 & JI HE 3
College of Water Resources and Architecture Engineering, Northwest A & F University, Yangling
712100, Shaanxi
ssb6533@yahoo.com.cn
School of Civil Engineering, Hefei University of Technology, Hefei 230009, China
School of Water Resources, North China Institute of Water Conservancy and Hydroelectric Power,
Zhengzhou 450011, China

Abstract:The common copulas modelling dependence structures of higher dimensional variables may
be misunderstand. In this paper, based on probability theory, Gaussian copula and Student t copula
were applied to model the multivariate drought joint probability distribution. Monthly average
streamflow from Zhuangtou gauging station in Weihe Basin, China, was used to illustrate these
methods. Chi-square test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Cramer-von Mises statistic, Anderson-Darling

                                                   - 51 -
statistic, modified weighted Watson statistic, and Liao and Shimokawa statistic were employed to test

                                                                                                          rn
goodness-of-fit for these univariate marginal distribution. Pearson’s classical correlation coefficient        ,

Spearman’s  n ,and Kendall’s τ under different truncation levels indicated that these three possible
bivariate dependence structures are different. Based on the AIC , BIC and RMSE, they showed that
Gaussian copula has the better fitting for drought joint probability distribution. A bootstrap version
based on Rosenblatt’s transformation was employed to test the goodness-of-fit for Gaussian copula..
The results were shown that applying Gaussian copula to model multivariate hydrological drought joint
distribution is a feasible method.



The DCE method, MTSE method and DMTSE method of hydrological series
extension

SHENGLI SONG1, DONG WANG1, JICHUN WU1, QINGPING ZHU2 & LING WANG3
Department of Hydrosciences, School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing
210093
 Corresponding author: wangdong@nju.edu.cn
China Water International Engineering Consulting Co, Ltd, Bejing 100053
Hydrology Bureau of the Yellow River Conservancy Committee, Ministry of Water Resources,
Zhengzhou 450001

Abstract:The traditional hydrological series Correlation Extension (CE) method takes a lots of total
variation characteristics into account,and the hydrological series usually contains noise, which covers
the characteristics of the hydrological series. So, the paper did some improvements,that was,
hydrological series de-noising and wavelet analysis were applied to hydrological series extension,
which provided new directions for series extension. And the three new methods of De-noising
Correlation Extension (DCE) method, Multiple Time Scale Extension (MTSE) method and De-noising
Multiple Time Scale Extension (DMTSE) method of the hydrological series extension were advanced.
And example analysis showed that the improvements toward CE method were effective. The
hydrological series de-noising was valid to improve extension accuracy; Compared to CE method and
MTSE method, the extension results of MTSE method are more exact; Extension accuracy of CE
method, DCE method, MTSE method and DMTSE method were gradually higher.



How reliable can we detect changes in extreme hydro-meteorological events with
statistical methods?

Ke-Jin Liu, Wen Wang (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China)

Abstract:Extreme precipitation events have become the focus of more and more studies in the last
decade in the context of global climate change. Due to the complexity of the spatial pattern of changes


                                                   - 52 -
in precipitation processes, it is still hard to establish a clear view of how precipitation has changed and
how it will change in the future. Several non-parametric methods, including Mann-Kendall test,
Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, Levene’s test and quantile test etc, for detecting changes in extreme
precipitation events are assessed based on simulated daily precipitation data in the present study. The
results show that, by using Mann-Kendall trend test, we often fail to find secular changes in annual
extreme values when magnitude of change is small, especially for small data sets. The other three
non-parametric methods for evaluating step changes in distribution work well for detecting changes in
two groups of data with large data size and big difference in distribution parameters, but none of them
are powerful enough for small data sets and small distribution parameter difference. Unfortunately,
small dataset sizes and small distribution parameter changes are common in real world applications.
Therefore, statistical testing methods available so far in detecting changes in extreme precipitation
events are not really reliable.
Assimilating surface soil moisture to estimate profile soil water content using EnKF
and Hydrus-1D Model


XIAOHUA KOU, WEN WANG (State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic
Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing,China)

Abstract:Soil moisture status in the root zone is an important component of the water cycle at varies
spatial scales (e.g., point, field, catchment, watershed, and region). The numerical one-dimensional
vadose zone hydrology model (HYDRUS-1D) can provide the distribution of soil moisture in the root
zone, which is one of the most widely used codes for unsaturated flow. The primary objectives of this
study are to update the soil moisture in the root zone by assimilating the soil surface moisture into the
HYDRUS-1D model in point scale. The study was divided into two parts. For the first study, root zone
soil moisture was estimated by assimilating in-situ soil surface moisture of the Walnut Gulch
Experimental Watershed (WGEW) with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique into the
HYDRUS-1D model. The HYDRUS-1D model inputs were derived from the SSURGO soil database
and data from meteorological stations/rain gauges at the WGEW. The second study focused on the
sensitivity analysis of the data assimilation scheme. We analyzed the influence of the ensemble size,
the initial error, the model error and the observation error on the assimilation system. The results
indicate that the soil surface moisture estimation can be improved significantly via the data assimilation.
The improvement in the root zone is related to the model bias error at surface layer and root zone. The
soil moisture in deep layers does not vary significantly with time. To sum up, the assimilation system
based on the HYDRUS-1D and EnKF is practical and effective.



Flood Classification Based on Improved Principal Component Analysis and
Hierarchical Cluster Analysis

HUI GE1. ZHENPING HUANG1. KELIN LIU2 & JING LI3,4
1College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China
youyouxiaofen@126.com, hzping0301@sina.com
2Hydrology and Water Resources Department, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029,
China

                                                   - 53 -
3Beijing Golden-Water Information Technology Co.Ltd, Beijing 100053, China
4Bureau of Hydrology MWR, Beijing 100053, China

Abstract:Flood classification is an optimization problem for recognizing the magnitude of flood
intensity. Flood classification will not only affect the real-time reservoir operation, but also influence
the flood hazard assessment. It plays an important role in establishing the effective rules of real-time
reservoir operation. Therefore, flood classification is very important both in theory and in practice. In
view of the disadvantages of current flood classification methods, this paper proposed a new model
called IPCA-HCA model based on improved principal component analysis (IPCA) and hierarchical
cluster analysis (HCA) to solve the problem of flood classification. This model firstly processes the
original matrix using improved dimensionless method, then transforms a number of original correlation
indexes into a few uncorrelated principal components by principal component analysis which is
adopted to reduce the dimensionality, and finally makes flood cluster analysis by these new principal
components. In this paper, taking Yichang hydrological station in Hubei province as an example, the
IPCA-HCA model is applied to classify several historical flood processes. The results show that the
classification with IPCA-HCA model is obviously better than the traditional method. IPCA-HCA
model proposed in this paper is characterized by reasonable structure, simple calculation, intuitive
discrimination and better feasibility. It is an effective flood classification method.




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