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Response to 1999 SAB
Recommendations on salmon
recovery science
A Presentation to the
NOAA Science Advisory Board
John Stein, Ph.D.
Deputy Director
Northwest Fisheries Science Center
NOAA Fisheries Service
August 2005 1
Outline
• Purpose
• Issue
• Presentation of Briefing
• Desired Outcomes
2
Purpose
In response to SAB request:
– Summarize progress made relative to 1999
recommendations for strengthening
salmon science in Pacific Northwest (PNW)
– Receive SAB feedback
– Discuss recommendations in context
current state of salmon recovery efforts
3
Summary of 1999 SAB
recommendations
• Build and strengthen connections with agencies outside of
the core NOAA-university community
• Increased emphasis on the oceanic portion of the salmon life-
history
• Develop and improve models to predict salmon population
changes from habitat changes, ocean survival and oceanic
factors. NOAA Environmental Research Laboratories should be
encouraged to partner with NMFS
• Prepare revised medium and long term science plan
following CRI workshops. Address key sources of uncertainties
and strengthen understanding of critical process and
parameters in recovery of salmon in the PNW.
• Links to managers and management agencies should be
built explicitly into all stages of the science initiatives and
salmon recovery.
4
Issue
• Should any of the previous SAB
recommendations continue as a high
priority?
• Does the SAB have additional
recommendations?
5
Build and strengthen connections
Two specific examples
– Endangered Species Act
(ESA) Recovery Planning
–Habitat/Life Cycle Models
6
Puget Sound
Technical Recovery
Team
7
Build and strengthen connections
The SHIRAZ model
• Salmon Habitat Integrated
Resource Analysis z
• Developed with Ray Hilborn
(U. Washington) to evaluate
ESA recovery planning for
salmon
• Engaged state, tribes,
NGOs, farm/business
groups, local agencies, and
watershed recovery
committee
• Approach being applied in
Columbia River Basin
8
Increased emphasis on the oceanic
portion of the salmon life-history
Published NWC freshwater and ocean/estuary studies,
2000-2005
40
35
papers published
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Freshwater study Ocean study
9
Increased emphasis on the oceanic
portion of the salmon life-history
Management goals: 14
• Improved Forecasts
12 Salmon Prediction
– Biophysical indices that
10
can be used in predictors
Hatchery coho salmon survival (%)
8
• Plankton production & 6
composition, predator 4
abundance 2
– Direct measurement of 0
juvenile abundance 0.00 0.25 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50
Standardized Copepod Anomalies
Increased emphasis on the oceanic
portion of the salmon life-history
Management goals: 6
• Ecosystem-Based
5
observed
Management
4
SAR (%)
3
model
– Trophic interactions 2
and fisheries 1
– Characterizing 0
marine habitat
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year of ocean entry
variability
– Improved
Scheuerell & Williams (2005) Fish. Oceanogr.
understanding of
climate-salmon
linkages
Develop and improve models
NWC salmon habitat modeling papers 2000-2005
16
14
papers published
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Freshwater model Ocean model
12
Develop and improve models
Model the
Identify actions effects of those
Identify within strategies actions …
restoration and place those alternative
strategies actions on the restored
landscape landscapes
Estimate current
and historical Evaluate
conditions restored
landscapes –
habitat
conditions and
fish response
13
Develop and improve models
Metapopulation
Coho Salmon Dynamics
Population
Dynamics
Harvest 0.50
Egg-to-Parr Survival Rate
0.40
Sparr = 0.064P-0.743
Management 0.30
0.20
2
R = 0.68
PFMC Amendment 13 Marine Survival Index
0.10
0.00
0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200%
(based on return of jacks per hatchery smolt)
Parent Spawner Extremely Low Low Medium High
Status 1/ (<0.0008 jacks/smolt) (0.0008 to 0.0014 ) (0.0015 to 0.0039) (>0.0040 jacks/smolt) Percent of Full Seeding (P)
High E J O T
Parent Spawners > 75% of full
seeding <8% <15% <30% <45%
Medium D I N S
Parent Spawners > 50% & <
75% of full seeding <8% <15% <20% <38%
Low
Parent Spawners > 19% & <
50% of full seeding
Very Low
Parent Spawners > 4 fish
per mile & < 19% of full
seeding
C
<8%
B
<8%
<15%
<11%
H
G
M
<15%
L
<11%
R
<25%
Q
<11%
e.g, Nickelson and Lawson 1998
2/
C rit ic a l A F K P
Parental Spawners < 4 fish
per mile 0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8% 0 - 8%
Sub-aggregate and Basin Specific Spawner Criteria Data
"Critical" Very Low, Low, Medium & High
100% of
Miles of Available
Sub-aggregate Spawning Habitat
Full
4 Fish per 12% of Full 19% of Full 50% of Full 75% of full
Seeding
Mile Seeding Seeding Seeding Seeding
Northern 899 21,700 3,596 NA 4,123 10,850 16,275
North - Central 1,163 55,000 4,652 NA 10,450 27,500 41,250
South - Central 1,685 50,000 6,740 NA 9,500 25,000 37,500
Southern 450 5,400 NA 86 1,026 2,700 4,050
Coastwide Total 4,197 132,100 15,074 25,099 66,050 99,075
Freshwater
Habitat
1000
partial for AnnTemp
1000
partial for Trans
0
-1000
0
-2000
-3000
-1 0 1 2 280 300 320 340
AnnTemp Trans
1000
bs(P4, knots = 0, degree = 1)
1000
Marine Survival
0
partial for P5
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-2 -1 0 1 2 -1 0 1 2
P4 P5
e.g, Lawson et al. 2004
5
1500
OCN Coho Index
4
Standardized Anomaly
3
0
2 1950 2000
e.g, Logerwell et al. 2003
1
0
-1
Climate Patterns
-2
-3
-4
Observed PDO Projected PNA 14
1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Prepare revised science plan
• 2000 initial plan. 2003/2004 - NWFSC salmon
science plan revised, peer/constituent-review.
• Outlines 10 key research questions in 5 major areas.
• Developed research plans for each of 10 research
themes.
• Guides focus for NWFSC salmon science.
15
Social Science Research Plan
• Developed NWFSC Social Science
Research Plan (peer-reviewed)
• Plan covers:
- Research Methods and Tools
- Social Science Research Themes
-In situ Conservation of Protected
Species and Ecosystems
-Commercial & Recreational
Fisheries;
- Ongoing Projects and Research
Priorities
16
Links to managers and management
agencies
• Research conducted as a result of mandates in 2000
and 2004 Col. River Hydropower Biological Opinions
– Population Identification
– Viability goals (population and ESU level)
– Limiting factors analyses
– Monitoring and Evaluation
– Workshops and public releases of documents
– Habitat and life cycle modeling
– Hydro effects: direct effects and on estuary
– Multiple public meetings
17
Desired Outcomes
• Confirmation that NOAA Fisheries achieved
the intent of the 1999 recommendations
• Additional recommendation from the SAB
18
Backup Slides
• The following provide additional
information and examples of how the
NW Fisheries Science Center has
responded to the 1999
recommendations by the SAB
19
Increased emphasis on the oceanic
portion of the salmon life-history
Subyearing Chinook Yearing Chinook Yearing Coho
48° N
LaPush LaPush LaPush
Washington Washington Washington
47° N
Juvenile salmon abundance
and distribution monitoring
June
since 1998:
46° N Astoria Astoria Astoria
0.0 to 0.1
45° N
Oregon Oregon Oregon
0.1 to 0.2
• exhibit patchy distributions
• On any given cruise, we do
0.2 to 0.3
Newport Newport Newport
0.3 to 0.4
48° N
LaPush LaPush LaPush
0.4 to 0.5
50 trawls but catch half of the
fish at 2 or 3 stations.
0.5 to 1.0
Washington Washington Washington
47° N
• Most of large catches are off
September
46° N Astoria Astoria Astoria
the coast of WA
Oregon Oregon Oregon
45° N
Newport Newport Newport
125° W 124° W 123° W 125° W 124° W 123° W 125° W 124° W 123° W
20
Increased emphasis on the oceanic
portion of the salmon life-history
Genetic Information Allows Spatial Tracking of Chinook
ESU’s in Coastal Habitats
48° N 245
Washington
74
250
47° N
4 0
153
Columbia
61
27
Columbia Basin
Fall Brights
200
Columbia Basin Fall Tules
North Oregon Coast 47 Oregon
33
13
Mid Oregon Coast
125° W 124° W 21
Develop and improve models
• Snohomish Basin – Evaluating Spawner density
recovery scenarios (here referred to
as “Test Case”
Historical
40000
Test case Historical
30000
Current
Recruits
20000
10000
0
0 Population productivity
10000 20000 30000 40000
Spawners Test case
Current path
22
Build and strengthen connections
The Elwha Dam Removal project:
• Starts with local stewards
– Lower Elwha Tribe
– National Park Service
– Bureau of Reclamation
Federal Agencies State and Local
National WDFW
Park Service Clallam County
Bureau of
Reclamation Academic Institutions
USGS Peninsula College
NOAA Western WA Univ.
Fisheries
Univ. of WA
USFWS
Univ. of MT
Univ. of ID
Tribes
Lower Elwha
tribe
23
Prepare revised science plan
• Worked closely with Recovery Science
Review Panel to implement
recommendations of that panel, as feasible
• Have conducted workshops to address key
scientific uncertainties, e.g.
– Workshops on Columbia River channel
improvement project (1999)
– Symposium/workshop on how to evaluate ESU
status of hatchery and resident fish (2005)
24
Social Science Projects
• Integration of economic data and research
into endangered species policymaking
– Critical habitat designation for West Coast salmon
and steelhead
• Economic data used to estimate impacts of ESA
protection for West Coast salmon and steelhead
• Cost-effectiveness framework used as part of critical
habitat designation regulatory process
– Recovery planning for NW salmon and steelhead
(ongoing)
• Developing economic database of costs of conservation
actions covering 4 Hs
25
