MARKET WATCH Progressive Dairyman by alicejenny

VIEWS: 3 PAGES: 2

									MARKET WATCH FEED                                                                               CITRUS EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED

                                                                                                                                            Patrick French
                                                                                                                                            RP Feed Components
     Feed expense is the single                    market prices for a basket of 23 feeds       combined with the composition of a          Patrick.French@
largest outlay of cash for a dairy. e              available in the region. Market prices       feed, we arrive at a relative economic      feedcomponents.com
Economic Research Service estimates                are gathered from both published             value of the ingredient. is gives
that feed makes up 55 percent and 70               and unpublished sources. Values are          us a global perspective of the feed’s
percent of operating and total milk                determined for rumen degradable              value. However, many times we may         in the $1 to $3 range. Although eNDF
production costs, respectively. Since              protein (RDP), rumen undegradable            need a specific nutrient – so we have      has a low per-unit cost, it contributes
feed is a significant cost contributor,             protein (RUP), effective neutral              derived nutrient-specific values for the   significantly to the total nutrient
we need methods to identify                        detergent fiber (eNDF), non-fiber              categories of carbohydrates, proteins     cost because of its moderately high
feedstuffs that may meet the nutrient               carbohydrates (NFC) and fat. For             and fiber carbohydrates.                   concentration in the ration.
requirement of the dairy cow more                  RUP, NFC and fat, only the fraction                  e graph shows the monthly                 e table lists several feeds,
economically than the feedstuffs                    digestible in the small intestine is         nutrient values over the previous two     their price and their value based on
currently in the ration.                           valued. For brevity, eNDF is referred        years. Digestible (d) or metabolizable    whether all nutrients (comprehensive)
     Nutrient values are derived                   to as a nutrient, though it is a ration      RUP and NFC are consistently the          or specific sets of nutrients
using the composition and weekly                   descriptor. When nutrient values are         most costly nutrients on a per-unit       (carbohydrates, proteins or fiber)
                                                                                                basis and are currently in the range      were used in their valuation. Green



“
                                                                                                of $13 and $6 per percentage point,       shading and intensity of shading
       While NFC has been quite stable over the

                                                                          ”
                                                                                                respectively. While NFC has been          indicates undervalued feeds and
                                                                                                quite stable over the last month,         orange shading indicates overvalued
     last month, RUP has been increasing.                                                       RUP has been increasing. e other          feeds. Feeds without shading indicate
                                                                                                nutrients, RDP, eNDF and dFat, are        that the market price and derived
                                                                                                                                          value are similar. Overall, distillers
                                                                                                                                          dried grains, almond hulls and rice
                                                                                                                                          bran are undervalued – whereas
                                                                                                                                          canola, soyhulls and cottonseed are
                                                                                                                                          overvalued. Undervalued feedstuffs
                                                                                                                                          when observing specific nutrient sets
                                                                                                                                          are citrus (carbohydrates), cottonseed
                                                                                                                                          meal (protein) and soyhulls (fiber).
                                                                                                                                          Use of undervalued feedstuffs may
                                                                                                                                          reduce ration cost, but value is only
                                                                                                                                          one of several factors that should
                                                                                                                                          be considered when evaluating the
                                                                                                                                          inclusion of a new ingredient. PD


                                                                                                                                             COMMODITIES
                                                                                                                                          Corn* (in tons)                    (in bushels)
                                                                                                                                                                  3-week                   3-week
                                                                                                                                            May 7       Price                   Price
                                                                                                                                                                  change                   change
                                                                                                                                              CA        $290       $7           $8.12      .20¢
                                                                                                                                              ID        $283       $4           $7.93      .12¢
                                                                                                                                              NM        $263       $4           $7.36      .12¢
                                                                                                                                          *Price quotes contributed by Western Milling,
                                                                                                                                          J.D. Heiskell and independent sources.



                                                                                                                                          Soybean meal* ($/ton)
                                                                                                                                                                     3-week
                                                                                                                                            May 7         Price
                                                                                                                                                                     change
                                                                                                                                               CA         $470        $34
                                                                                                                                               ID         $472        $37
                                                                                                                                              NM          $456        $38


                                                                                                                                          Cottonseed* ($/ton)
            FLAT OR CURVED FRONT CHAIN DISCHARGE                                                                                            May 7         Price
                                                                                                                                                                     3-week
                                                                                                                                                                     change
                                                                                                                                               CA         $390          $5
                                                                             Great for bunks and floor feeding                                  ID         $365          $4
     RDO Equipment                     Mixer Center Inc.
                                                                                                                                              NM          $335        $10
     Hermiston, OR
     Sunnyside, WA
                     800.357.7925
                     800.745.4027
                                       Stephenville, TX 254.965.3663
                                       Friona, TX        254.965.3663        Discharge left and right
                                       Roswell, NM       254.965.3663
     Linn Benton Tractor                                                     Discharge up to 50”                                          Supreme hay ($/ton)
     Tangent, OR      541.926.1811     Kern Machinery
                                       Bakersfield, CA     661.833.9900
     Whatcom Manufacturing Inc.        Buttonwillow, CA   661.746.6363
                                                                                                                                             May 7              Price           3-week change
     Lynden, WA    360.354.3094        Delano, CA         661.725.3841                                                                     Central CA           $250                  $5
     Alan Brandmeyer                   Lawrence Tractor Co.                                                                                   UT            $180-$230             $30-$50
     Regional Sales Manager            Mike Lorenzo
     Cell:            661.303.3626     Hanford, Visalia, Tipton, CA                                                                           WY               NT                    NT
     email: albrandmeyer@hotmail.com   559.901.9267 559.752.4251                                                                             WA/OR          $255-$285                NC
                                                                                     Trioliet YouTube channel:
                                                                                                                                              CO            $255-$270                NC
                                                                                     www.youtube.com/Trioliet2011
                                                                                                                                               NM           $285-$290             $40-$60
                                                                                                                                                TX          $270-$290             $10-$20
            www.trioliet.com                                                                 Trioliet. Invents for you.
                                                                                                                                          Source: USDA National Hay, Feed & Seed Summary


 8                                                                                   Progressive Dairyman                                                                 Issue 8 • May 21, 2012
SOYBEAN MEAL OVERVALUED                                                                                                  SAVE MONEY AND TIME
$21
                                       Price per unit of ration component                                                                         ...with PARMA® Combination Boxes.
$18 dRUP                                                                        (dollar per percentage point)            Convert
$15                                                                                                                      box from
                        April prices                                                                                     spreading
$12
          dRUP: $13.23 dFat: $1.58   RDP: $3.22                                                                          manure to
                 dNFC: $6.41 eNDF: $2.61
 $9                                                                                                                      hauling forage
 $6                       dNFC                                                                                           in a matter of
              RDP                                                    eNDF                                                minutes.
 $3
                                                         dFat
 $0
   Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
   2010                                       2011                                               2012
                                                                                                                                                                                    Hydraulic Driven Spinner
                                                                                                                                                                                    attachment spreads
A basket of 23 regionally available feeds and their recent prices                                                                                                                   compost, manure,
                         Market Price Comprehensive              Carbohydrate
                                                                                Protein     Fiber                                                                                   bedding and dry material
                                                                                 Value      Value                                                                                   with an even, consistent
Feed name                 $/T As-Fed       Value, $/T As-Fed Value, $/T As-Fed $/T As-Fed $/T As-Fed                                                                                spread pattern.
Alfalfa - Good               260                   223                160                   –            138
Alfalfa - Premium            275                   240                180                   –            142
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Now Availab
Alfalfa - Supreme            293                   249                180                   –            145                                                                                                   le
                                                                                                                                                                                                with a Vertic
Almond Hulls                 150                   207                151                   –            129                                                                                                  al
Canola                       355                   299                 –                   228            –                                                                                         Beater
                                                                                                                                                                                                Attachment!
Citrus                       174                   216                324                   –             98                                                                                                !!
Corn Germ Meal               248                   280                 –                   239            –
Corn Gluten Feed             228                   237                245                  170            –
                                                                                                                             Quality built components throughout assure long life and superb
Corn Silage                  190                   219                 93                   –            230                      performance season after season and load after load.
Cottonseed                   397                   315                 –                   172           212
                                                                                                                                                                               www.parmacompany.com


                                                                                                                          PARMA
Cottonseed Meal              340                   387                 –                   448            –                                                       ®         parmacom@parmacompany.com
Cottonseed Pima              347                   327                 –                    –             –
Distillers Dried
                             268                   361                    –                337           126

                                                                                                                            COMPANY
Grains (DDG)
Hi-Protein DDG               345                   362                 –                    –             –
Molasses                     245                   221                230                   –             –                                                                                    208.722.5116
Rice Bran                    180                   232                147                   –            123
Rolled Barley                285                   261                242                   –             –
Rolled Corn                  277                   293                301                   –             –
                             449                   428                 –                   469            –
Soybean Meal
Soyhulls                     235                   160                233                   –            340
                                                                                                                          Go for Green for optimal claw condition
Straw                        110                   152                175                   –            316
Urea                         820                   840                 –                   834            –
Wheat Millrun                230                   227                189                   –             –               Gel
         Extremely undervalued feed                                              Extremely overvalued feed
         Undervalued feed                                                        Overvalued feed
                                                                                                                          Liquid

   FUTURES                                                                                                                Bath
                                                                                                                                                       “In all the years I have been trimming, Hoof Sol Gel has always
$6.80
$6.60
         High: $6.65 Low: $5.24
                                                                              Corn (dollars per bushel)                   Tape                         given the best long-term results. Its recipe contains no antibiotics
                                                                                                                                                       and therefore is safe to use. Many other competing hoof products
                                                                                                                                                       use antibiotics, which introduces the problem of resistance.“
$6.40
$6.20                                                                                                                                                  Henri van Herk, Hooftrimmer, Alberta, Canada
$6.00
$5.80                                                                                                        High
$5.60
$5.40
$5.20
         Settle                                                                                              Low

     May             July                      Sept                 Dec                    Mar                   May
    2012                                                                                   2013

                                 May ’12 contracts                $6.30 -.12¢                $6.60/$6.02
          Corn                   July ’12 contracts               $6.12 -.24¢                $6.34/$5.94
                                       MAY 7                    Avg. 3-week settle            High/Low
                                 May ’12 contracts             $411.93 +$26.07             $434.30/$390.60
   Soybean meal
                                 July ’12 contracts            $414.48 +$27.32             $435.50/$393.90
$450
                                                                     Soybeans (dollars per ton)                                   ted
                                                                                                                           Motivars?
$425                                                                          High: $437.60       Low: $341.80              deale
                                                                                                                                    rt   pa
$400                                                                                                                           Become am!
                                                                                                                               of our te    908
$375                                                                                                                                00-617-8
                                                                                                             High           Call:1-8xt. 316
                                                                                                                                   e
$350

$325
         Settle                                                                                              Low

    May           July           Aug        Sept         Oct          Dec            Jan           Mar           May    For practical solutions                                            www.hoofsol.com
   2012                                                                             2013                                                                                                 Contact:1-800-617-8908 ext. 316
Source: Chicago Mercantile Exchange data


 Issue 8 • May 21, 2012                                                                                   Progressive Dairyman                                                                                                9

								
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