resort 2004 finalLomanno by xdKhg06

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									US LODGING INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
         Mark V. Lomanno
             President
        SMITH TRAVEL RESEARCH
        Total United States
        Occupancy and ADR
        Twelve Month Moving Average To March 2004

      90                                  Peak $86.46
      85                                  June 2001
                   Occupancy (%)
                   ADR ($)
      80
      75                                                                $83.57
                                                                       March 2004
      70
      65
      60
                  Peak 64.9%
      55          June 1996                                             59.6%
                                                                      March 2004
      50
           1996   1997     1998    1999    2000         2001   2002    2003        2004


Source: STR
                         Total United States
                   Estimated Revenue and Profitability
                          Years 1993 – 2003E
120                                                                                     112.1
                                                                                                                                    50%
                    Revenue                                                  102.9                 103.5      102.6      104.0
100                 Pre-Tax Income                                 93.1                                                             45%
                    GOP                                85.6
                                             77.4                                        40.9%
80                                                     40.3%       40.2%
                                70.4                                          39.2%
      63.5
                   66.7                      38.2%                                                                                  40%
                                37.0%                                                               37.1%
60                 36.2%

                                                                                                                          33.5%     35%
                                                                                                               32.5%
40
      30.5%
                                                                      20.9       22.1       22.5
                                                              17                                       16.2                         30%
20                                              12.5                                                              14.2       15.0
                                       8.5
                          5.5
             2.4
 0                                                                                                                                  25%
      1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003E

Source: Smith Travel Research
           Total United States
           Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
           Twelve Month Moving Average To March 2004
       5
       4
       3
       2
       1
       0
      -1
      -2          Supply % Change
                  Demand % Change
      -3
      -4
      -5
      -6
           1998      1999      2000   2001   2002      2003   2004


Source: STR
           Total United States
           Room Supply/Demand Percent Change
           Monthly Year-Over-Year 2000 – March 2004
     10


      5


      0


      -5
                                                 Supply % Change
     -10                                         Demand % Change


     -15


     -20
           2000        2001         2002          2003             2004


Source: STR
Current Lodging Demand
   * 2,648,200 – annualized daily rooms sold

   * Off 15,000 daily - from peak

   * Peak demand – 1st Quarter 2001

   * New Demand High Reached in Q2 2004
           Total United States
           Occupancy / ADR Percent Change
           Twelve Month Moving Average To March 2004
       8
       6
       4
       2
       0
      -2
      -4                   Occ % Change
                           ADR % Change
      -6
      -8
           1998    1999     2000      2001   2002      2003   2004


Source: STR
           Total United States
           Occupancy Percent Change
           Jan 2000 – March 2004

     10

       5

       0

      -5

     -10

     -15

     -20
                2 0 0 0     2 0 0 1   2 0 0 2   2 0 0 3




Source: STR
           Total United States
           Room Rate Percent Change
           Jan 2000 – March 2004

      10

       5

       0

      -5

     -10

     -15
                2 0 0 0     2 0 0 1   2 0 0 2   2 0 0 3




Source: STR
ADR % change
2003 vs 2002
         Total United States
         Key Performance Indicators Percent Change
  10
                       Total 2003                                              8.5
   8                   Q1 2004                                     7.3


   6                         5.5

                                           4.3
   4
                                                       2.9
                       1.7                                               1.8
   2      1.2 1.1
                                     0.5                     0.6
                                                 0.1
   0
              Supply   Demand       Occupancy     ADR        RevPAR      Revenue


Source: STR
         Total United States
         Daily Occupancy*
         2000 - 2003
   75%
               2000      2001    2002      2003
   70%                                            68.8%
                                                          67.0%   66.5%   66.9%
                 64.4%
   65%
                         59.9%           59.4%
                                 59.2%
   60%

   55%

   50%
                          Weekday                         Weekend



* Excluding Sunday
  Total U.S.
  Average Daily Lodging Demand in Millions
  2000 - 2003
3.2
3.1
         2000     2001   2002     2003
3.0                                                          2.954
2.9                                      2.885 2.876 2.900

2.8
       2.702
2.7
                              2.623
2.6             2.569 2.583

2.5
2.4
                Weekday                        Weekend
  Total U.S.
  Average Daily Room Revenue in Millions
  2000 - 2003
250
                                                                              $244.6
            2000      2001         2002     2003
                                                   $238.4            $238.7
240                                                         $236.2
        $234.7

230
                 $221.4
                                   $219.7
220                       $217.2


210

200
                 Weekday                                    Weekend
STR Chain Scales
Selected chains from each segment



• Luxury – Four Seasons, Ritz Carlton, Fairmont

• Upper Upscale – Embassy, Hilton, Marriott, Sheraton

• Upscale – Radisson, Courtyard, Crowne Plaza

• Mid with F&B – Holiday Inn, Ramada, Best Western

• Mid no F&B – Hampton Inn, Country Inns & Suites, HI Express

• Economy – Motel 6, Red Roof, Days Inn
       Supply Percent Change
       by Chain Scale
 6
        4.6                                                   4.7
                                    4.3
 4                                                                  3.6
              2.7      2.3

 2                           1.5          1.3


 0

                    Total 2003                                                   -1
-2                                                     -1.8
                                                                          -1.5
                    Q1 2004                     -2.3

-4
        Luxury      Upper Upscale   Upscale     Mid W/        Mid W/O     Economy

Source: STR
       Demand Percent Change
       by Chain Scale
12
              10.3                   Total 2003
10                                   Q1 2004
                                                                      7.8
 8                                           6.7
        6.6
                              5.8
 6                                     5.4
                                                                4.9

 4                      2.4
                                                          2.0
 2                                                                                 1.3

 0
-2
                                                   -2.3                     -2.6
-4
         Luxury      Upper Upscale     Upscale     Mid W/       Mid W/O     Economy

Source: STR
       Occupancy Percent Change
       by Chain Scale
 8            7.4
                                                           Total 2003
 6                                                         Q1 2004
                                          5.4

                             4.3                                4.1
                                                    3.8
 4

        2.1                                                                  2.3
 2
                                    1.1
                       0.2
                                                0         0.2
 0

                                                                      -1.3
-2
        Luxury      Upper Upscale   Upscale     Mid W/    Mid W/O     Economy

Source: STR
       ADR Percent Change
       by Chain Scale
 4
              3.3
                                               Total 2003
                             1.9               Q1 2004
 2                                                                  1.8
                                         1.4
                                                        0.9                      1.1
                                                              0.4
 0
                                                                          -0.1
       -0.7                                      -0.4

-2
                      -1.8          -2


-4
        Luxury      Upper Upscale   Upscale       Mid W/      Mid W/O     Economy

Source: STR
       RevPAR Percent Change
       by Chain Scale
12
              10.7
                                                              Total 2003
10
                                                              Q1 2004
 8                                        6.8
                              6.3                                  6.0
 6                                                     4.9

 4                                                                              3.5

 2      1.2
                                                             0.5
 0
                                     -1         -0.5
-2                                                                       -1.2
                       -1.6
-4
         Luxury      Upper Upscale   Upscale     Mid W/      Mid W/O     Economy

Source: STR
STR Destination Resorts - Definitions
   -337 Properties in the Continental US and Hawaii
   -12.6% of all rooms are associated with Walt Disney Resorts


   Breakout by Chain Scale:
                   Scale               Rooms      % of Total Rooms
               LUXURY CHAINS             14,497         8.8%
          UPPER UPSCALE CHAINS           54,170        32.7%
              UPSCALE CHAINS              5,152         3.1%
          MIDSCALE W/ F&B CHAINS          3,756         2.3%
             ECONOMY CHAINS                 445         0.3%
               INDEPENDENTS              87,658        52.9%
                    Total               165,678        100.0%
Destination Hotels In The US
        Resorts - Destination
        Key Indicators (Percent Change)
        Twelve Month Ending February

       8.0%
                                   5.7%
       6.0%                               4.5%
                   3.5%
       4.0%
               2.3%     2.4%                         2.1% 2.1%                       1.8% 1.9%
       2.0%                                                      0.9%
       0.0%
                                                                    -0.3%-0.1%
       -2.0%
                    2002
       -4.0%
                    2003
       -6.0%        2004
       -8.0%
                               -8.6%
      -10.0%
                                                                                 -9.9%
                                                 -10.7%
      -12.0%
                 Supply          Demand              OCC            ADR            RevPAR


Source: STR
        Resorts - Destination
        Key Indicators
        Twelve Month Ending February
                                       167.65 167.14 166.97
      170.00

      150.00             2002
                         2003
                         2004
      130.00

      110.00                                                                  105.83
                                                              101.95 103.83


       90.00

       70.00     60.8   62.1    63.4


       50.00
                    OCC (%)                 ADR ($)              RevPAR ($)


Source: STR
   Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons)
   Demand Percent Change
   Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004
 20
 15
 10
  5
  0
 -5           Total US
-10           Luxury
              Boutique Hotels
-15           Resorts

-20
      2000             2001       2002            2003   2004

Source: STR
   Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons)
   Occupancy Levels
   Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004

     75
                                                  Total US
                                                  Luxury
     70                                           Boutique Hotels
                                                  Resorts


     65


     60


     55
          2000       2001          2002             2003            2004
Source: STR
   Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons)
   Occupancy Percent Change
   Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004
 10

  5

  0

 -5

-10           Total US
              Luxury
              Boutique Hotels
-15           Resorts

-20
      2000             2001       2002            2003   2004

Source: STR
   Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons)
   ADR Percent Change
   Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004
 15

 10

  5

  0
              Total US
              Luxury
 -5           Boutique Hotels
              Resorts

-10
      2000             2001       2002            2003   2004

Source: STR
   Resorts – Destination (Segment Comparisons)
   RevPAR Percent Change
   Twelve Month Moving Average To February 2004
 20
 15
 10
  5
  0
 -5
-10           Total US
              Luxury
-15           Boutique Hotels
-20           Resorts

-25
      2000             2001       2002            2003   2004

Source: STR
  Performance Since The Respective Peak RevPAR Month


                                                                     0.0%
   0.0%
  -2.0%
  -4.0%                                                                                 -3.3%

  -6.0%                                                      -5.9%
              -6.6%                      -6.6%
                                                                            -7.0%
  -8.0%                                                                             -7.4%
                                 -8.9%
 -10.0%                                                                     Resorts
                                                 -10.3% -10.6%
 -12.0%                                                                     Luxury Chains

 -14.0%                                                                     Boutique

 -16.0%                                                                     Total US
                      -16.6%
 -18.0%                     -17.1%
                       RevPAR                       OCC                       ADR

Source: STR
         Total U.S.
         Estimated Lost Room Revenue
         3rd Party Intermediaries
 1,500
              In Millions
                                                $1,284.1
 1,300

 1,100
                                       $872.3
    900

    700

    500
                            $375.0

    300
                  $200.5
    100
                  2000      2001       2002      2003*

Source: STR
       Total U.S.
       Estimated ADR Change
       Impact of 3rd Party Intermediaries
     7%
                5.8%
     6%    5.5%
                                                 Reported
     5%
                                                 Estimated
     4%
                                                                 3.0%
     3%                                                      2.4%
     2%
                                                    0.6%
     1%
                                                 0.1%
     0%
    -1%                      -0.7%       -0.8%
                        -1.0%       -1.5%
    -2%
    -3%
              2000        2001        2002        2003*       2004*

Source: STR
           Total United States
           In Construction – Rooms in Thousands
           2002 - 2003
     140
     130
                                                                          2003
     120
                                                                          2002
     110
     100
      90
      80
      70
      60
             Jan   Feb    Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov    Dec


Source: STR, PPR, Dodge
           Total United States
           Rooms Under Construction by Scale – In Thousands
           December 2003
     20
                                                 17.4
                           15.1                                       15.7
               14.7
     15


     10


       5                              4.2                   3.6


       0
              Upper       Upscale   Mid w F&B   Mid w/o   Economy Unaffiliated
             Upscale                             F&B
Source: STR, PPR, Dodge
           Total Pipeline Under Construction By Scale




Luxury

Upper Up

Upscale

Mid w/F&B

Mid w/out F&B

Economy

Independent
         Total United States
         Active Development Pipeline - Rooms
         Change From Last Year

                             Dec 2003   Dec 2002   Change     % Chg

         In Construction      70,818     85,463    (14,645)   -17.1%

         Final Planning       16,446     25,253     (8,807)   -34.9%

         Planning            185,179     214,260   (29,081)    -13.6%

         In Pre-Planning     138,065     130,852     7,213      5.5%

         Total Development   410,508     455,828   (45,320)     -9.9%




Source: STR, PPR, Dodge
      STR/PPR/FW Dodge Pipeline
      Historic Attrition Rates


                                                            5.0%
                                         20.0%


                        53.0%

          74.0%


                                                            95.0%
                                         80.0%


                        47.0%

          26.0%



      PrePlanning      Planning      Final Planning   Under Constrution
                           Opened   Abandoned

Source: STR
U.S. Economic Outlook
Blue Chip Economic Indicators



                          2003P   2004F    2005F
Real GDP                  +3.1%   +4.6%    +3.7%

CPI                       +2.3%   +1.7%    +2.1%

Corporate Profits        +16.8%   +15.2%   +9.2%

Disp Personal Income      +2.6%   +4.2%    +3.4%

Unemployment Rate          6.0%    5.7%     5.4%
           Total United States
           Supply/Demand Percent Change
           1998 – 2004P
       5
                                                                     4
       4            3.5
              2.8
       3                  2.3
                                       1.6               1.7
       2                                           1.2         1.2
       1                                     0.3
       0
      -1
      -2                                           Supply % Chg
      -3                                           Demand % Chg
      -4                        -3.4
      -5
               2000        2001         2002        2003       2004P
Source: STR
           Total United States
           Occupancy Percent
           1998 – 2004P
      65
                63.2


                                                 60.8
                            59.7
      60                                  59.2
                                   58.9




      55
                2000        2001   2002   2003   2004P

Source: STR
         Total United States
         ADR Percent Change
         1998 – 2004P
    10.0


              5.4
     5.0
                                               2.4

                                       0.1
     0.0

                         -1.4   -1.4

    -5.0
              2000       2001   2002   2003   2004P

Source: STR
           Total United States
           Average Daily Rate
           1998 – 2004P
      90

                85.37                              85.11
      85                    84.2
                                   83.01   83.12


      80


      75


      70
                2000        2001   2002    2003P   2004P

Source: STR
         Total United States
         RevPAR Percent Change
         1998 – 2004P
     15.0


     10.0
               6.1
                                                5.2
       5.0
                                        0.6
       0.0

                                 -2.6
      -5.0

                         -6.9
     -10.0
              2000      2001     2002   2003   2004P

Source: STR
              U.S. Lodging Outlook
              * Supply Growth Remains Stable

              * Demand Hits Record Levels

              * Occupancy Rising

              * Regain Control over Room Rates

              * Economy Rebounding – Return of the King

              * Long Term Optimism

Source: STR

								
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