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          Africa in the new oil geopolitics
                                                              JP. Favennec
                       Director - Centre for Economics and Management
                                                                 IFP School
                                                Institut français du pétrole




8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                    Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
PETROLEUM WORLDWIDE IN 2002




                  8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                                                          Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                                 WORLD PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION


                10 000      Mtoe

                 9 000                                                                                                    Electricity*
                 8 000

                 7 000                                                                                                    Gas

                 6 000

                 5 000

                 4 000                                                                                                    Oil

                 3 000

                 2 000

                 1 000                                                                                                    Coal
                       0
                       1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
* Nuclear and hydroelectricity
                                                                     8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source : BP Statistical Review                                                                               Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                                              WORLD RESERVES (1.1.2003)
                                                                            Possibles
                                                                                2800



       (109 toe)
     (1) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 80 $/kg
     (2) Quantities which can be recovered for less than 130 $/kg
     (3) Present technology (Pressurised Water Reactor)
     (4) Recoverable
     (5) R/P: Proven Reserves/Production ratio

                                                          In place          R/P = 204
                                                                     600
                                                                                 Proven
         R/P = 41 (5)           Enhanced
                                recovery                                             532
                 Yet to be
                 discovered       100                   Probable
                                             R/P = 61
            Proven 100                         Proven    120
                                                                                                                       R/P = 65 39,5 (2)
              143                                 143                      (4)                                          22,7 (1)
                                                                     80
                   LIQUID                         NATURAL     NON-                      COAL +                                URANIUM (3)
               HYDROCARBONS                         GAS   CONVENTIONAL                  LIGNITE

                                                                                 8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source : BP Statistical Review, CEA, IFP / DSEP                                                                          Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                                                             THE PLACE OF AFRICA
                                                         IN THE WORLD OIL RESERVES
                          (Proven oil reserves as at 1st January 2003)


                                                                                            CIS
                                                                                           7.5%                            TOTAL : 143 Gt
   Canada
    0.7%             USA                                                   Europe
                     2.9%                                                   1.8%
   Mexico                                           North Africa
   1.2%                                                3.9%
                          Venezuela
                                                                                    Middle East*                                                 Indonesia
                          7.4%                                                        64.9%                                                         0,5%



                                                                                                                                                         Oceania
                                            West Africa                                                                                                     3.2%
                                              3.2%




* includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Yemen
                                                                                       8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source: BP Statistical Review                                                                                                  Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                        ESTIMATED PROVEN RESERVES AND PRODUCTION
                        FOR MAJOR AFRICAN OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES

                                                                   Libya                                                                36 000
                                                                                                    1,48

                                                                  Nigeria                                               25 000
                                                                                                                      2,12
                                                                                                               11 300
                                                                  Algeria
                                                                                                           1,86
                                                                                             5 400
                                                                  Angola
                                                                                           0,92
                                                                                     3 700
                                                                   Egypt            0,62
                                                                                 2 500
                                                                  Gabon
                                                                               0,30
                                                                               1 500
                                                                  Congo
                                                                              0,26
                                                                              1 100                         Proven Reserves (Mb)
                                                        Equatorial Guinea
                                                                             0,18                           Production (Mb/d)

                                                                    Chad     900
                                                                             0,18

                                                                   Sudan    563
                                                                            0,12 Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                                                                            8th Africa
                    Février 2004
Source: BP Statistical Review, EIA, Oil & Gas Journal                                                           Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                                                 CRUDE PRICE VARIATION

             100
                                                                                         $ 2002
              90             (1875)              (1911) Dissolution                       $ current
                           Rockefeller             of Standard Oil
              80
                                          Period of
              70                          control by                                   (1979) Iranian
                                                                                      revolution                                 (1990)
              60                         Rockefeller                                                                               Irak/
                                                             (1928) Achnacarry                                                   Kuwait
              50                                                agreement            (1973) Yom                                     war
                                                                                      Kippur war
              40
                                                                                 (1960)
                                                                                 Foundation
              30
                                                                                 of OPEC
              20

              10

                0
                 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

                   1861-1944: USA average, 1945-1985: Arabian Light posted at Ras Tanura, 1986-2002: Brent Spot

                                                                             8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source : BP Stat. Review                                                                                             Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                    OIL PRICES REFERENCES




Production costs                                                                   $ 3 - 15 / bbl


Break even price for international oil companies                                  $ 20 / bbl


Price to meet producing countries budget requirement                              $ 20 - 25 / bbl




                                        8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                                                                                Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
           MAIN OIL FLOWS IN 2000 (Mt)




                    290                           165
80




                      125           1120
     90

          135             165                                           80




                                8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                                                                        Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                      EVOLUTION OF AFRICA’S SHARE IN WORLD CRUDE OIL
                                       PRODUCTION

    Thousands barrels per day                                                               13690 b/d
                                                                                              (12,2 %)
        120000


        100000
                                                                   7803 b/d                                                        Africa
                                                                   (10,5 %)
          80000                                                                                                                    Asia Pacific
                                   5047 b/d
                                    (9,0 %)                                                                                        Middle East
          60000
                                                                                                                                   Europe & Eurasia

                                                                                                                                   S. & Cent. America
          40000
                                                                                                                                   North America

          20000


                 0

                                    1975                            2000                       2025
                                                                              8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source: BP Statistical Review, Energy Information Administration                                                      Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                       MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE USA IN 2003 (‘000 b/d)


                                             113




                   USA
        Total imports = 9 646                                    Algeria
         From Africa = 1 466


                                                           Nigeria
                                                                                          Gabon


                                                         838                                 Congo
                                                                     131

                                                                  23

                                                                                                  Angola
                                                           361




                                                    8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source: Energy Information Administration                                                   Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                 MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO THE EUROPEAN UNION IN 2002
                                       (‘000 b/d)

                                             European
                                              Union
                                          Total imports = 9 652
                                           From Africa = 1 806




                                   325                                   75
                                                  745

                                     Algeria     Libya               Egypt



                                  Nigeria
                                                   Cameroon
                                    375                Gabon
                                                    Congo
                                   122
                                          164
                                                          Angola




                                                          8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source: European Commission                                                                       Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                             MAIN AFRICAN OIL FLOWS TO ASIA IN 2002 (‘000 b/d)


                                                                                                           China(1)
                                                                                                  Total imports = 1 209
                                                                                                   From Africa = 272
                                                                   100

                                             Sudan
                                                                                 96     Other Africa
                          Nigeria
       76
                                           Gabon
                                                                             Other Africa                                    OECD
                                                                                                                          Asia Pacific(2)
                                                                                 162
                                                                                                                        Total imports = 6 738
                                                                                                                         From Africa = 331
                             10                 Angola

                     93              66




  (1) 2001 data
  (2) OECD Asia Pacific includes Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea         8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
Source: International Energy Agency, China OGP                                                                                 Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
                   SHARE OF HYDROCARBONS IN THE ECONOMY OF
                                  AFRICAN COUNTRIES - 2002* -

           Country                % of GDP        % of exports                           % of revenus


    ANGOLA                           45                   90                                           90

    CAMEROON                          5                   60                                           20

    CONGO                            67                   94                                           80

    GABON                            73                   81                                           60

    NIGERIA                          40                   95                                           83

    EQUAT. GUINEA                    86                   90                                           61


* Estimates
Source : ,CRS, World Bank, IMF,
CIA World Factbook 2002, EIA
                                                    8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                                                                                                          AF021 - April   2004
                                                                                            Marrakech, April 26-30 2004
          KEY PRODUCING ZONES




                        Caspian
                         Area
Gulf of
Mexico                  30 Gb
               West
3 Gb           Africa

              27 Gb




                         8th Africa Oil and Gas, Trade and Finance Conference and Exhibition
                                                                 Marrakech, April 26-30 2004

								
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