Structured Trade
&
Investment Finance
A Multilateral Emerging Market ECA:
A Key Driver for Sustainable Development
Paul Mudde
Senior Vice President Reputation Management & Sustainable Development
Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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Structured Trade & Investment Finance Agenda
I. Introduction
II. The Rationale for EMECA
III. The Role of EMECA IV. EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
V. Summary & Conclusions
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Main Considerations:
1. Debt Constraints Emerging Markets
2. Official Flow Constraints 3. Ambitious UN new Millennium Goals 4. Importance of Private Capital Flows 5. Support for Exports from Emerging Markets 6. Support for Intra-Regional Trade 7. Level Playing Field OECD Exporters & Exporters Emerging markets 8. No Dedicated Program to support Trade between
Emerging Markets
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Year Total 1990 1458.4 2000 2492 2001 2442.1
Debt Constraints EM
900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1980 1990 2000
Stock of Total Debt Developing Countries by Region in Bln. US$m
Europe & Central Asia Latin America &Caribbean Middle East & North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia & Pacific
2001
Source: OECD & World Bank
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
MLT Export Credit Debt to BU Members 1999 324.1 2000 334.6
Debt Constraints EM
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1970 1980 1990 2000
Composition of Debt of Developing Countries in Bln. US$m
Total LT LT Public LT Private ST IMF Credit 2001
Source: OECD & World Bank
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Debt Constraints EM: Debt Indicators All Developing Countries
EDT /XGS: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Exports Goods & Services EDT/GNI: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Gross National Income
200 150 100 50 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2001
Source: World Bank
EDT/XGS EDT/GNI
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
5% Turkey 4% 3% India Thailand
Debt Constraints EM
5% Korea Rep.
6% Russian Fed. 6% Mexico
Top Ten Debtors in 2000 Percentage of Total Debt Developing Countries
Total Debt US$ 2,492 Billion
6% China 6% Indonesia 6% Argentina 10% Brazil 8% HIPC
35% Other Dev. Countries
Heavily Indebted (HIPC) Severely Indebted Moderately Indebted Less Indebted
Source: World Bank
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Main Consequences of Debt Problem Emerging Markets:
• Financial Crises in various EM (Asia, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Argentina) • Local Currency Devaluation • Payment Defaults & Private Sector Bankruptcies • Loss of Jobs and large Social Damages • EM Governments enhance process of Liberalisation & Privatisation
Response of Financial Markets:
• Credit Crunch • Increased Pricing • London Club Rescheduling • Commercial Work-outs
Response IMF, ECAs, MLAs, Bilateral Donors
• IMF / MLA Support combined with Conditions re. Liberalisation & Privatisation • Bilateral Aid Loans (e.g. Balance of Payment support) • Technical Assistance • Paris Club Rescheduling (Since 1983: 352 Agreements covering US$ 406 Bln.) • HIPC Debt Relief & Chapter 11 for Sovereigns
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Official Flow Constraints & Importance of Private Flows
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
Net MLT Capital Flows to Developing Countries in Bln. US$
Total Official Private
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: World Bank Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Gross Official Flows in Bln. US$
Official Flow Constraints
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
90 Total 74.1
91 72.8
98 78.3
99 79.2
Gross Official Flows to Developing Countries in Bln. US$
America Africa Asia Ocenia Europe
97
98
99
Source: World Bank
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Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
II.
The Rationale for EMECA
MLT Export Credit Debt to BU Members 1999 324.1 2000 334.6
Source: IMF
Official Flow Constraints (IMF)
Stock of Debt Developing Countries to IMF in Bln. US$m
100 80 60 40 20 0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
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0
1
2
Source: OECD, BU & IMF
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Top Te n Re cipie nts 1 2 3 Indone s ia China Rus s ia E gypt India Thailand V ie tnam Is r ae l Philippine s Banglade s h
2000
Am ounts in M illion US$
Official Flow Constraints (OECD DAC)
Bilateral Aid 2000: Total US$ 43.3 Billion
2,456 2,097 1,495 1,442 1,438 1,187 1,153 1,000 990 825
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
70,000 60,000
Bilateral OECD DAC Aid by Income Group
LLD C
Total Aid all DAC Members in Mln US$
10,886
7,789
O t h e r L o w - I n c o me
50,000 ODA OA 30,000 Tot al
L o w e r M i d d l e - I n c o me
40,000
32 1,839
11,739
U nal l ocat ed U p p e r M i d d l e - I n c o me
20,000
H i g h - I n c o me
10,000 0 1999 2000
11,358
Source: OECD
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Official Flow Constraints (OECD DAC)
2000: Net ODA as a % of GNI
UN Target 0.7
OECD Average: 0.39
Source: OECD
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Ambitious Development Goals for the new Millennium
UN Millennium Development Goals:
1. Eradicate extreme Poverty & Hunger 2. Achieve universal Primary Education 3. Promote gender equality & empower Women 4. Reduce Child mortality 5. Improve Maternal Health 6. Combat HIV / AIDS 7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability 8. Develop Global Partnership for Development
WB Estimate: US$ 40 - 60 Billion of additional Aid per Annum
Internationally Agreed Aid Target: Actual Average OECD DAC Countries: To meet Millennium Goals: 0.7% of GDP 0.39% of GDP (2000) 0.49% of GDP
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Importance of Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 -50 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Source: World Bank Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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Net MLT Private Flows to Developing Countries by Source in Bln. US$
Total Banks Bonds FDI Other
II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Importance of Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
Key Developments re Private Capital Flows: • Importance of FDI (approx. 30% mergers & acquisitions) • Volatility of Debt Flows (Bank Loans / Bonds) • Concentration in Financial Markets
• BIS II Solvency Rules (2006)
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Concentration in Financial Markets
Mergers & Acquisitions in the: • Bank Sector » Europe (e.g. Germany: Landesbanks) » Bad Loan problems (e.g. Japan) • Insurance Sector » General Insurance: Allianz, AXA, AIG, ING » Credit Insurance: Gerling / NCM, Euler / HERMES, COFACE, Lloyds, ACE, CHUBB, AIG • Concentration Constraints • Less Competition • Funding and Mitigation Capacity will likely become more expensive
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1+1=?
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Oct. 02 S&P
AABBB+ BBB+ BBB BBBBBBBB BB B+ B+ B B BBCCC+ CCC+ SD
BIS II Solvency Changes for Sovereigns Borrowers
Country
Es tonia Chili Ma la ys ia La tvia Lithua nia Tha ila nd South Africa Bulga ria India Roma nia Bra zil Ukra ine Urugua y Pa kis ta n Turke y * Indone s ia Ecua dor Arge ntina
Current Solvency
8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 0 8 8 8
New Solvency
1.6 1.6 1.6 4 4 4 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 12 12 12
* Turke y = OECD Country
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Year Total 887.4 1798.0 2284.7 Dev. 556.1 1013.3 1622.0 EE 41.9 88.2 81.9 DC 270.0 651.0 519.6 1990 1997 2000
Supporting Exports from Developing Countries
Exports from Developing Countries by Destination in Bln. US$
2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Developed countries Countries in Eastern Europe Developing countries
Source: Unctad Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Exports of Manufactures have become more Important !
Supporting Exports from Developing Countries
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1999
Composition of Exports Developing Countries in % of Total Exports 66% 54%
Food A g r icult ur al R aw M at er ials F uels Or es & M et als M anuf act ur es Ot her
Source: Unctad Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Supporting Exports from Developing Countries
Focus on Private Sector Development in EM
• Private Sector is the engine for Sustained Economic Growth • Private Sector is main source for job creation & employment • Employment is main Route to combat Poverty & to Improve Living Standards • Private sector is main source of (tax) income for Public Sector Expenditures in Health, Education, etc.
Focus on the Support of Exports
• Exports Income is key for GDP Growth of Developing Countries • Exports Income is key in solving Debt problem of Developing Countries • By Supporting Exports Future Crises can be Prevented
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
BU New MLT Business in Bln. US$
1993 1999 76 62 14 2000 84 71 13 Total Exports Investm ents 84 78 6
ECAs play a Key role in supporting Exports to EM & Development of EM
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Berne Union Members MLT New Business Covered in Bln. US$
Total Exports Investments
1999
2000
Source: Berne Union
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Supporting Intra Regional Trade: Key for Regional Development
%
10 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
intra regional trade
inter regional trade
2000
CE E/ CI S/ Ba lti cs
W .E ur op e
er ic a
er ic a
Am
N.
L.
Am
M .E
Af
Source: World Bank Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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As ia
ric a
as t
II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Level Playing Field OECD Exporters & EM Exporters Bottlenecks for MLT Finance of exports from EM:
• MLT Finance in Local Currency Not Available • MLT Finance in Hard Currency Hardly Available No adequate MLT Insurance / Guarantee Facilities for Financing Banks
There is no ECA
There is an ECA, but adequate cover is not Available.
Most EM ECAs are only / mainly involved in ST Supplier Credits .
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Level Playing Field OECD Exporters & EM Exporters
ECA Counter- Party Risk: A Comparison of two ECAs
United Kingdom: AAA Argentina: SD
Exporter
Exporter
Bank
Sovereign Buyer / Borrower
Bank
ECGD
Philippines: BB+
Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
CASC
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Level Playing Field OECD Exporters & EM Exporters
ECA Counter- Party Risk: A Comparison of two ECAs
United Kingdom: AAA Argentina: SD
• Zero Solvency • No Country Risk Provisioning
ECGD
• 8% Solvency • Country Risk Provisioning
Sovereign Buyer / Borrower
CASC
MLT Finance Available
Philippines: BB+
MLT Finance Hardly Available or (too) Expensive
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
Level Playing Field OECD Exporters & EM Exporters
ECA Counter- Party Risk: A Comparison of two ECAs
United Kingdom: AAA
Exporter
Bank
Sovereign Buyer / Borrower
Result: • No Level Playing Field • Argentinean Exporter will not be able to win the Export Contract
ECGD
Philippines: BB+
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III.
The Role of EMECA
Importing EM 1.
ECA Counter- Party Risk: EMECA as Counter-guarantor
Exporting EM
Exporter
2.
Importer
Bank
3.
AAA rated Country ECA
4. 1. Export Contract 2. Export Finance Contract 3. Export Credit Insurance 4. EMECA Counter Guarantee 5. ECA / EMECA Co-operation Agreement
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5.
EMECA
Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
III.
The Role of EMECA
Importing EM 1.
No ECA in EM: EMECA the Solution
Exporting EM
Exporter
2.
Importer
Bank
3.
AAA rated Country
1. Export Contract 2. Export Finance Contract 3. Export Credit Insurance
EMECA
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II.
The Rationale for EMECA
No Dedicated Program to support Exports from Developing Countries Main Characteristics of the Official Financial Support to Developing Countries:
• Bilateral & MLA Support is mainly provided to Public Sector in Developing Countries • Limited Support for Private Sector Development (Mainly IFC, MIGA)
Some MLAs are explicitly not allowed to be involved in ECA Exports Business Examples: EBRD & MIGA
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III.
The Role of EMECA
Mandate: Act as ECA & provide insurance / guarantees to
Banks, EM exporters, Capital Market Financiers to support Trade between EM
Location: EMECA should be located in AAA rated country
Main Business Principles:
• Support within framework International Rules (OECD Consensus, WTO Break even) • No Competition, but active Co-operation with the Market (Banks, EM Exporters, PRIs, Capital Market Investors) • Active Co-operation with other Official Agencies (MLAs, OECD ECAs & ECAs in EM, DAC Donor Agencies, Governments)
Main Business Area:
• Non Marketable risks (MLT): Main Role act as Insurer / Guarantor • Marketable risks (ST < 2 Year): Main Role act as intermediary for PRIs
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III.
The Role of EMECA
The main Benefits of EMECA Benefits for Emerging Markets (EM):
• Trade is Sustainable Aid • Support Private Sector Development (e.g. EM Exporters) • Support Private Capital Flows to EM Borrowers • Enhance Trade & Investments between Emerging Markets (e.g. Intra Regional Trade, South / South Trade) • Increased Access to Stable MLT Finance • Improvement of Financial Infrastructure in EM - Local ECA & Bank Business / Expertise - Implementation of sound commercial business practices • Increase Local Knowledge re. Export Finance / Insurance • Positive Developmental Impact in two EM Exporting EM: Increase Hard Currency Income, Sustainable Jobs, Additional Tax Income Importing EM: Decrease of Import Costs • Increase Independence & Decrease Aid Dependency
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III.
The Role of EMECA
The main Benefits of EMECA
Benefits for EM Exporters:
• Level Playing Field with OECD Exporters • Financial Stability (exports = Hard Currency Income)
Benefits for Banks:
• Allow Banks to Finance MLT Trade Transactions between EM • Incentive for Banks to Originate Export Business in EM • Improved RAROC for Business with EM clients
Benefits for Private Risk Insurers:
• Co / Re - insurance opportunities with EMECA (e.g. MIGA CUP) • “Umbrella”- Protection EMECA
Benefits for OECD Donor Countries:
• Instrument to achieve Sustainable Development & UN Millennium Goals • Increase Aid Efficiency
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III.
The Role of EMECA
1996 140,057.25 1997 158,156.71 1998 171,088.56 1999 180,587.34
Ranking Emerging Markets & Capital Goods Exports
No. 1 - 10 (Average Exports 1995 - 1999)
70,000.00 60,000.00 50,000.00 40,000.00 30,000.00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00
Exports of Machinery and Transport Equipment in million US$ (SITC 7)
1 M alaysia 2 China 3 Thailand 4 Philippines 5 Brazil 6 Russia 7 Indonesia 8 Turkey 9 Argentina 10 South Africa
1990
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Source: Unctad
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Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
III.
The Role of EMECA
Average 95 - 99 10,248.39
Ranking Emerging Markets & Capital Goods Exports
No. 10 - 20 (Average Exports 1995-1999)
3,000.00 2,500.00 2,000.00 1,500.00 1,000.00 500.00 0.00 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Exports of Machinery and Transport Equipment in million US$ (SITC 7)
11 India 12 Belarus 13 Romania 14 Croatia 15 Oman 16 Tunisia 17 Lithuania 18 Estonia 19 Bulgaria 20 Venezuela
Source: Unctad Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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III.
The Role of EMECA
Average 95 - 99 2,434.49
Ranking Emerging Markets & Capital Goods Exports
No. 20 - 30 (Average Exports 1995-1999)
Exports of Machinery and Transport Equipment in million US$ (SITC 7)
1,000.00 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 1990 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
21 Chile 22 M orocco 23 Kazakhstan 24 Saudi Arabia 25 Yugoslavia, Rep. 26 Sri Lanka 27 Kuwait 28 Latvia 29 Uruguay 30 Nigeria
Source: Unctad
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III.
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Country Malaysia China Thailand Philippines Brazil Russia Indonesia Turkey Argentina South Africa India Belarus Romania Croatia Oman
The Role of EMECA
Top 30 EM Capital Good Exporters & OECD ECA Rating / OECD Aid / IMF Credit
OECD Rating 2 2 3 4 6 5 6 6 7 4 3 7 6 4 3 Aid in 2000 IMF Credit Oct. 02 OECD Aid in 2000 IMF Credit Oct. 02 in Mln US$ in Mln US$ No. Country Rating in Mln US$ in Mln US$ 181 0.00 16 Tunisia 3 223 0.00 1,735 0.00 17 Lithuania 4 99 122,638.16 641 578,676.88 18 Estonia 3 64 0.00 578 1,675,794.22 19 Bulgaria 5 311 1,051,622.87 322 17,334,335.23 20 Venezuela 6 77 0.00 1,565 6,637,688.75 21 Chile 2 49 0.00 1,731 8,742,679.33 22 Morocco 4 419 0.00 325 21,487,972.03 23 Kazakhstan 6 189 0.00 76 13,995,395.14 24 Saudi Arabia 3 31 0.00 488 0.00 25 Yugoslavia, Rep. 7 1,135 551,462.53 1,487 0.00 26 Sri Lanka 5 276 301,573.32 40 54,086.99 27 Kuwait 2 3 0.00 432 446,087.34 28 Latvia 4 91 17,649.64 66 93,428.21 29 Uruguay 6 17 1,763,244.97 46 0.00 30 Nigeria 7 185 0.00
Total for these 30 Countries in % of Total OECD Aid US$ 12.9 Billion approx. 20% IMF Credit US$ 74.9 Billion 81.90%
Source: OECD & IMF Export Credits & Political Risks, London February 2003
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IV.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
Some examples of Public & Private Sector risk Participation: 1. Equity participation by public & private sector 2. Treaty Re-insurance 3. Partial Credit Insurance 4. Partial Risk Insurance 5. Country risk specific risk sharing Public / Private Sector 6. Risk participation by the Insured (private sector)
These risk sharing arrangements do show the Huge leverage potential of EMECA
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IV.
1.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
Risk Participation: Equity.
EMECA Shareholders
Public Sector: • Emerging Market countries • High Income countries (OECD) • Multilateral Development Banks • Bilateral Development Banks
Private Sector: • Banks • Insurance companies • Re-insurance companies • Investors • Exporting companies
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IV.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
2.
Risk Participation: Treaty Re-insurance.
EMECA
Treaty Re-insurance 1st re-insurance layer provided by Public sector participants 2nd re-insurance layer provided by Private sector (re-)insurers 3rd layer of risk takers: Equity
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IV.
3.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
Risk Participation: Partial Credit Insurance. Stretching the Market Tenor (syndicated loan / PRI market) Can be arranged through: • Re-insurance • Co-insurance
Amount at Risk
Public Private Sector Sector Participation Participation
Year 4 Year 8
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Tenor of the loan
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IV.
4.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
Risk Participation: Partial Risk Insurance.
EMECA Can be arranged through: • Re-insurance • Co-insurance Public Sector Participants Political Risks Private Sector Participants Commercial Risks
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IV.
5.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
Country risk specific risk sharing Public / Private Sector.
120 100 80
% Share in Risk
60 40 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Private Public
OECD Country risk category
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IV.
6.
EMECA & Co-operation with the Market
Risk Participation: Participation by Insured (private sector). Borrower
EMECA Covered Loan Tied Commercial Loan (15% down payment)
Bank
95% Insurance
Total Risk Participation Bank: • 5% uncovered portion of the EMECA loan • 15% down payment loan
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EMECA
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IV.
Summary & Conclusions
EMECA is Key for Sustainable Development of Emerging Markets
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Annex I
Se ve re ly Inde bte d Low -Income (33)
Angola Be nin Bur undi Cam e r oon Ce ntr al Afr ican Re public Chad Com or os Congo, De m . Re p. Of Congo Re p. Of Cote d Ívoir e E thopia Guine a Guine a-Bis s au Indone s ia Kyr gys r e public Loa PDR Libe r ia
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M adags car M alaw i M aur itania M yanm ar Nicar agua Nige r Nige r ia Pak is tan Rw anda Sao Tom e Sie r r a Le one Som alia Sudan Tajik is tan Tanzania Zam bia
Annex I
Severely Indebted Low-Income Countries
Debt in Billions US$m
400
Total
300 200 100 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
LT LT Public LT Private ST IMF Credit
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Annex I
Debt Indicators: Severely Indebted Low-Income Countries
EDT /XGS: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Exports Goods & Services EDT/GNI: NPV External Debt as a% of annual Gross National Income
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
EDT/XGS EDT/GNI
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Annex II
Severely Indebted Middle-Income (8)
Ar ge ntina Br azil Ecudaor Gabon Guyana Jor dan Pe r u Syr ian Ar ab Re p.
Moderately Indebted Low -Income (16)
Bur k ina Fas o Cam bodia Gam bia Ghana Haiti Ke nya M ali M oldova M ongolia M ozam bique Se ne gal Togo Uganda Uzbe k is tan Ye m e n Zim babw e
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Annex II
Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries
Debt in Billion US$
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
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Total LT LT Public LT Private ST IMF Credit
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Annex II
Debt Indicators: Severely Indebted Middle-Income Countries
EDT /XGS: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Exports Goods & Services EDT/GNI: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Gross National Income
500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
EDT/XGS EDT/GNI
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Annex II
Moderately Indebted Low-Income Countries
Debt in Billion US$
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
Total LT LT Public LT Private ST IMF Credit
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Annex II
Debt Indicators: Moderately Indebted Low-Income Countries
EDT /XGS: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Exports Goods & Services EDT/GNI: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Gross National Income
250 200 150 100 50 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
EDT/XGS EDT/GNI
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Annex III
Moderately Indebted Middle-Income (27)
Alge ria Be lize Bolivia Bos nia & He rze govina Bulgaria Chili Colom bia Croatia Es tonia Honduras Hungary Jam aica Le banon M alys ia
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M auritius Panam a Papua ne w Guine a Philippine s Rus s ia Sam oa St Vince nt Thailand Tune s ia Turk e y Turk m e nis tan Uruguay Ve ne zue la
Annex III
Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries
Debt in Billion US$
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
Total LT LT Public LT Private ST IMF Credit
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Annex III
Debt Indicators: Moderately Indebted Middle-Income Countries
EDT /XGS: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Exports Goods & Services EDT/GNI: NPV External Debt as a % of annual Gross National Income
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 1999 2000
EDT/XGS EDT/GNI
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