Budget Decisions in Times of Fiscal Constraint by 2BSVd8q

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									Louisiana Postsecondary Education
Review Commission
Paul E. Lingenfelter, President
State Higher Education Executive Officers
August 10, 2009
                  Figure 1: 1973 Labor Force Degree
                  Analysis
                                            Graduate Degree
                                                  7%
                        Bachelor's Degree
                                                                           High School
                               9%
                                                                            Dropouts
                                                                               32%

                      Some College
                         12%




                                                                                  Labor force in 1973:
                                                                                  91 million




                                                        High School
                                                        Graduates
                                                            40%

                   Source: March CPS                                                     1973


Source: Analysis of March CPS data, 1973 to present, Center on Education
and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.                        Center on Education and the Workforce
              Figure 2: With stimulus package,
              employment growth set to resume in 2011
              Jan 80-Jul                                                                                                                                          163.9
                  80
              recession                                                                                                          Dec 07-
                                                                                             Mar 01-                             present
                                                                                             Nov 01                             recession
                                                                                            recession




                                                                                                                              147.2
            146.0


                                                                                                                                    143.6
                           Jul 81-                        Jul 90-
                           Nov82                          Nov 91

                                                                                                                                Start of
                                                                                                                                Stimulus




            121.0




             96.0
                    1980   1982      1984   1986   1988   1990      1992   1994   1996   1998   2000    2002   2004   2006   2008     2010   2012   2014   2016   2018

Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce’s
Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) Long-term Economic Outlook, March 2009
                                                                                                                 Center on Education and the Workforce
                  Figure 3: 2007 Labor Force Degree
                  Analysis
                                                                           Graduate Degree
                              Bachelor's Degree                                 11%
                                    21%
                                                                                     High School
                                                                                      Dropouts
                                                                                         11%




                    Associate's Degree
                           10%                                                          Labor force in 2007:
                                                                                        154 million



                                  Some College
                                                                                  High School
                                     17%
                                                                                  Graduates
                                                                                      30%




                   Source: March CPS
                                                                                                   2007

Source: Analysis of March CPS data, 1973 to present, Center on Education
and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.                             Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 4: The evidence suggests that jobs in the last 4 decades
have increasingly required post secondary education

       79%

75




60                                                                                High School or Less




45                                                                                                                                                        41%


                                                                                                                                                         32%
30
                                                                                  BA and above
                                                                                                                                                          27%

15                                                                                Some College and AA
      11%

      10%

 0
     1964   1966   1968   1970   1972   1974   1976   1978   1980   1982   1984   1986   1988   1990   1992   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004   2006   2008



Source: Current Population Survey, Various years
                                                                                                              Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 5: Least educated are most vulnerable in economic
downturns (unemployment rates by education)
20.0%


                                                     Jul 81-Nov 82                                                        Mar 01-Nov 01
                  Nov 73-Mar75
                                                       Recession                                                           Recession
                   Recession

                                    Jan 80-Jul 80                                                                                                Dec '07-present
16.0%                                 Recession                                    Jul 90-Mar91                                                    Recession
                                                                                     Recession



                                                                                                  Less than 4 years of
                                                                                                     High School

12.0%


                                                                                                                                                          10.1%


                                                                                                 4 or more years of
8.0%                                                                                          High School, no College



                                                                                                                                                          5.8%
                                                                     All

        4.6%                                                                                                                                              4.4%
4.0% 2.9%
                                                                                         Some college, 1-3 years
                                                                                                                                                          4.2%

          2.9%                                                                                                                                            2.1%

                                                                                                  BA and above
           1.3%

0.0%
        1970   1972   1974   1976   1978     1980   1982   1984      1986   1988     1990    1992    1994   1996   1998    2000   2002    2004     2006     2008




Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, various years
                                                                                                      Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 6: College Participation by
Socioeconomic Status

            College Participation                                    SES Quartile
            By Achievement Test
             and Socioeconomic
                                                                  Lowest     Highest
               Status Quartile


                                          Highest                  78%         97%
        Achievement
          Quartile
                                          Lowest                   36%         77%




 Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001.
Figure 7: Degree Attainment by SAT
Scores and Socioeconomic Status
                           90%

                           80%

                           70%
     BA+ Attainment Rate




                           60%
                                                                                            Top SES
                           50%                                                              2nd SES
                           40%                                                              3rd SES
                                                                                            Bottom SES
                           30%

                           20%

                           10%

                           0%
                                 1200-1600 1100-1199 1000-1099          800-999   400-799
                                                            SAT Score




 Source: Anthony Carnevale, Liberal Education, Fall 2008, p. 58.

								
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