Agri Daily by alicejenny

VIEWS: 0 PAGES: 7

									 Z`Z


                                                                                                Agri Daily




                                                                                                                            Agri Daily
                                                                                                                            Agri Daily
                                                                                                     Oct 03, 2012

                           Oilseed and Edible Oil Complex: Soybean/ RM Seed/ Soyoil
                           Soybean
                           Fundamental Snapshot
                              Weak bias continued in today’s trade session on start of arrivals from producing regions.
                              Sharp fall in prices of edible oils as well as oilmeals further added weak tone to the
                              soybean prices. Weak cues from global market also added bearish tone to the domestic
                              market trade.
                              Soybean prices at Indore market moved down by Rs 217 per quintal to Rs 3098.5 per
                              quintal. In Kota market, soybean prices moved down by Rs 524 per quintal to Rs 3204
                              per quintal. Soybean prices at Nagpur market moved down by Rs 344 per quintal to Rs
                              3200 per quintal. Soybean arrivals to the markets at MP and Maharashtra totaled at 0.75
                              lakh bags 0.25 lakh bags of 90kg respectively.
                              As per First Advance estimate released by Ministry of Agriculture, India’s soybean
                              production for 2012-13 to stand at 12.62 million tonnes, which is up by 2.77 from 2011-12
                              production of 12.28 million tonnes. New crop arrivals slowly started at MP markets with
                              excessive moisture content and trading at discount price than old crop.
                              As per IGC, Maize and soybean markets have retreated amid seasonally rising supplies
                              and suggestions of better than previously expected soybean yields. The forecast 8%
                              recovery in world soybean production in 2012-13 depends on record South American
                              crops. CBOT soybean traded at (Nov’12 contract) 1601 cents per bushel on Sept 28th
                              trade session, up by 30.25 cents per bushel.
                           Technical Outlook
                              NCDEX Soybean Nov, futures prices corrected significantly to close at Rs 3076 levels.
                              Market was down by 3.97%.
                              Prices opened on the lower side, entry was not initiated.
                              Resistance is at Rs 3145 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 3215 levels. Support
                              is at Rs 3040 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 3005 levels.
                              Volumes showed positive movement from 8540 to 10136MT, Open interest depleted from
                              148010 to 145620.
                              MACD-14 is trading below zero level. To suggest further correction ahead of the session.
                              Traders are advised to enter fresh sell.
                              Commodity          Strategy        Entry        Target-1      Target-2      Stop Loss
                            Soybean Nov’12          Sell          3121          3040          3010           3189
                           Rape/ Mustard Seed
                           Fundamental Snapshot
                              Weak bias witnessed in RM seed prices in today’s trade session owing weakness in
                              overall oilmeals as well as edible oils market. Spot prices at Jaipur market moved down
                              by Rs 139 to Rs 4061 per quintal in today’s trade session. In Alwar market, RM seed
                              prices moved down by Rs 116 to Rs 4125 per quintal.
                              At the same time, RM seed prices at Sri Ganganagar market have moved down by Rs
                              165 to 3935 per quintal. RM oil prices at Sri Ganganagar traded at Rs 745 per 10 kg,
                              down by Rs 18 per 10 kg from previous day.
                              There are hopes that rain in rabi is to be good to support RM seed crop at major
                              producing regions like Rajasthan and Punjab. Kharif season oilseeds spillover effect is to
                              keep RM seed prices in check for medium term.
                           Technical Outlook
                              NCDEX Rape Seeds Oct, futures prices tumbled by -112 rupees to close at Rs 3767
                              levels.
                              Entry was not initiated but corrected till our target.
                              NCDEX Rape seeds Nov, futures prices traded on bearish note to close at Rs 3810
                              levels.
                              Prices could escalate to Rs 3881 level breach of this it could extend to Rs 3953 levels.
                              Support is witnessed at Rs 3767 violation of this could correct to next support of Rs 3725
                              levels.
                              Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 4109 to 6163 MT, Open interest inclined
                              from previous day's of 46200 to 49280.
                              RSI-14 is trading in oversold territory to signal continuation of downward trend
                              Commodity          Strategy        Entry        Target-1      Target-2      Stop Loss
                                                                                                                      1
                            RM seed Nov’12          Sell          3852          3767          3725           3921


Emkay Commotrade Limited
                           Soyoil
                           Fundamental Snapshot
                              Weak bias continued in domestic edible oil market in today’s trade session as a result of
                              sharp fall in Malaysian palm oil prices. Refined soyoil prices at Indore bench market
                              moved down by Rs 30 to Rs 650-655 per 10 kg (without VAT 5%) in today’s trade
                              session.
                              At the same time, imported soya degum (crude) CIF Mumbai moved down by US$ 20 to
                              US$ 1165 per tonne. Appreciating rupee to make imports cheaper amid domestically
                              crushed edible oils to increase in coming days remain bearish impact on market.
                              BMD CPO prices settled down by MYR 82 to MYR 2464 per tonne in today’s trade
                              session. Sept month CPO and palm products exports from Malaysia stood at 1.427
                              million tonnes, up by 0.5% from last month.
                           Technical Outlook

                              NCDEX Soya Oil Nov, futures prices corrected significantly to close at Rs 626.95 levels.
                              Prices opened with a gap on the lower side and continued to trade on negative
                              side.
                              Resistance is at Rs 640 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 653 levels. Support is
                              at Rs 620 levels breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 613 levels.
                              Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 9949 to 13079 MT, Open interest
                              increased to 101400 from previous day's of 92900.
                               RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side
                              Traders are advised to sell.

                              Commodity          Strategy          Entry          Target-1    Target-2      Stop Loss
                             Soyoil Nov’12          Sell            637             621           613            646




                           Cottonseed Oilcake
                           Fundmental Review
                              Cottonseed Oilcake gains at spot market. At Aligarh market, COC traded in the range of
                              Rs 2300-2400/quintal with arrivals of 4tons. While at Kadi and Akola market, COC quoted
                              higher at Rs 1390.4 and 1362/quintal respectively.

                           Technical Outlook
                              NCDEX Cotton Seed Oil Cake Dec, futures prices moved up by 16 rupees and finally
                              settled at Rs 1344 levels.
                              Upside movement has clearly confirmed technical breakout.
                              Entry got initiated now traders are advised to book profit at around Rs 1345-1346 levels.
                              Resistance is at Rs 1364 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 1385 levels. Support
                              is at Rs 1319 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 1295 levels.
                              Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 2474 to 4302MT, Open interest
                              increased to 54600 from previous day's of 51290.
                              Now traders are advised to book profit in short position and Take long position at
                              Rs 1326 levels.

                                  Commodity                Strategy        Entry     Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
                           Cottonseed oilcake Dec’12         Buy           1326        1364       1385          1293




Emkay Commotrade Limited                                                                                                     2
                           Grains Complex:
                           Maize
                           Fundamental Snapshot
                              Steady to weak bias witnessed in domestic maize market in today’s trade session. Nearing
                              kharif maize arrivals season is bringing pressure on maize prices as buyers waiting for the
                              downside limit in prices.
                              Maize in Davangere market moved down in today’s trade session by Rs 30 per quintal to
                              Rs 1150-1300 per quintal at arrivals of 6500 quintals. In Sangli market maize prices were
                              remained steady at Rs 1490 per quintal at arrivals of 500 quintals. Nizamabad market
                              closed today.
                              As per IGC, Maize prices are down m/m on improved seasonal availability and low US
                              export demand, but the global market remains tight with stocks expected to decline by 12%.
                              Maize markets have retreated on seasonally rising supplies. IGC projected global corn
                              production to hover at 833 million tonnes, down by 42 million tonnes (4.80%) from last year.
                           Technical Outlook
                              NCDEX Maize Nov, futures prices marginally corrected to close at Rs 1266 levels.
                              It has traded to form dark cloud candlestick pattern to suggest marginally correction before
                              any upside movement.
                              Prices are holding upward trendline support.
                              Resistance is seen at Rs 1282 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 1298 levels.
                              Support is at Rs 1256 levels and next support is at Rs 1246 levels.
                              Volumes declined from previous days of 993 to 881MT. Open interest appreciated to
                              67090 from previous day's of 66040
                              Traders are advised to continue with same long position.

                                Commodity          Strategy        Entry       Target-1     Target-2     Stop Loss
                               Maize Nov’12           Buy          1261          1285         1297           1239

                           Wheat
                           Fundamental Snapshot
                              Steady to weak bias continued in domestic market wheat prices in today’s trade session on
                              lack of buying queries amid surplus stocks in the market. Wheat prices moved down further
                              by Rs 20 per quintal at Delhi market in todays trade session. Wheat prices at
                              Shahajahanpur market marginally up by Rs 3 to Rs 1315 per quintal. Wheat prices at Kota
                              market moved down by Rs 70 per quintal to Rs 1400 per quintal at arrivals of 756 tonnes.
                              Higher stocks in the market to keep the wheat prices in check till sowing perspectives get
                              confirmed.
                              Worsening outlook for Black Sea and Australian wheat is adding bullish tone to the wheat
                              prices and even IGC cut global wheat production further in its recent monthly report. IGC
                              projecting (Sept’12 report), world wheat production in 2012-13 at 657 million tonnes, down
                              by 5 million tonnes from last month projection and is 39 million tonnes below last season’s
                              record. Global use of wheat is expected to fall by 2%, to 679million tonnes, as high prices
                              reduce feed demand.
                           Technical Outlook
                              NCDEX Wheat Oct, futures prices marginally corrected to close at Rs 1441 levels.
                              Entry was not initiated but corrected till our target.
                              Now traders are advised to shift to Nov’12 contract.
                              NCDEX Wheat Nov, futures prices traded on bearish note to close at Rs 1427 levels.
                              Prices could escalate to Rs 1449 level breach of this it could extend to Rs 1471 levels.
                              Support is witnessed at Rs 1408 violation of this could correct to next support of Rs 1389
                              levels.
                              Spread between Oct’12 and Nov’12 is 13 rupees. This difference may go upto 38 rupee in
                              next one to two weeks.
                              Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 132 to 232MT, Open interest increased to
                              9850 from previous day's of 9330.
                               RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side
                              Prices have settled exactly above the horizontal support of Rs 1404 levels. So
                              traders are advised to sell only below Rs 1395 levels.
                              Commodity           Strategy        Entry        Target-1       Target-2      Stop Loss
                                                  Sell only
                             Wheat Nov’12                          1395          1345           1305           1434
Emkay Commotrade Limited                           below                                                                 3
                           Pulses: Chana
                           Fundamental Snapshot
                               Weak bias witnessed in chana prices across the spot markets in today’s trade as a
                               result of lean buying queries. In Delhi, Indore and Amravati markets, chana prices
                               moved down by Rs 50-275 per quintal in today’s trade session.
                               Similarly, Vijay variety chana in Akola market was traded higher by Rs 50 at Rs 4325 per
                               quintal. However, in Amravati market, chana prices were up by Rs 50 per quintal to Rs
                               4500 per quintal.

                           Technical Outlook

                               NCDEX Chana Nov, futures prices plunged by -53, finally it closed at Rs 4160 levels.
                               Prices opened with gap down missing our entry level. But it corrected till our
                               mentioned target.
                                Resistance is at Rs 4209 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 4258 levels.
                               Support is at Rs 4099 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 4038 levels.
                               Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 3021 to 5200 MT, Open interest
                               increased to 52520 from previous day's of 51450.
                                RSI is implies prices to trade on negative note.
                               Traders are advised to wait for more clarity to take position.


                              Commodity          Strategy        Entry       Target-1      Target-2      Stop Loss
                             Chana Nov’12       Stay away



                           Others: Gur
                           Fundmental Review


                              Gur price drops on new arrivals. New gur peri was on demanded at Rs 3800 a qtl while
                              old quality was quoted at Rs 3500 a qtl here amid rising arrival from U.P. Arrival of new
                              gur was reported nearly 200 bags in Muzaffar Nagar and there new gur Laddoo was
                              quoted at Rs 1380 per 40 kg.
                           Technical Outlook

                               NCDEX Gur Nov, futures prices plunged by -11, finally it closed at Rs 1156 levels.
                               Resistance is at Rs 1165 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 1174 levels.
                               Support is at Rs 1147 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 1138 levels.
                               Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 231 to 513MT, Open interest increased
                               to 9690 from previous day's of 9100 RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side.
                               Spread between Nov’12 and Dec’12 is 34.5 rupees, this can come down to 12 rupee.
                               Traders are advised to continue with short position.



                             Commodity         Strategy        Entry        Target-1       Target-2     Stop Loss
                             Gur Nov’12          Sold           1160          1146           1134          1171




Emkay Commotrade Limited                                                                                                  4
                           Jeera
                           Fundamental Snapshot

                              Jeera spot prices witnessed a steady trend at Unjha market.
                              Increased arrivals along with good demand from overseas restored the jeera spot prices
                              at previous levels.
                              Average price of jeera remained unchanged at Rs 155 per kg along with minimum and
                              maximum prices of Rs 145-165 per kg respectively.
                              Arrivals in the market have increased to 3000 bags compared to previous trade (as on
                              28th of Sep’12) arrivals of 1500 bags. Sales in the market remain unchanged at 2000
                              bags.
                              Total jeera arrivals (Unjha market) for the month of Sep’12 are reported as 49100 bags (1
                              bag = 55Kgs) out of these 42500 bags of jeera has been sold in the month of Sep’12.

                           Technical Outlook

                              NCDEX Jeera Nov, Futures price made minor upside movement of 42.5 rupees to close
                              at Rs 13905 levels.
                              Entry got initiated now traders are advised to continue with short position.
                              Resistance is seen at Rs 14061 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 14218
                              levels. Support is witnessed at Rs 13726 violation of this could correct to next support of
                              Rs 13548 levels.
                               RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side.
                              Traders are advised to continue with shot.

                           Pepper

                           Fundamental Snapshot

                              Pepper spot prices continued to remain steady at previous levels.
                              Minimal demand from overseas along with declined arrivals in the domestic market
                              restored the pepper spot prices at previous levels in today’s trade.
                              At Cochin market MG-1 and Un-Garbled prices ruled flat at Rs 415 per kg and Rs 400 per
                              kg respectively. Likewise at Sakaleshpur market whole grade pepper spot prices
                              remained unchanged at Rs 390 per kg.

                               Indian origin pepper in the international market is trading at USD 7718/Tonne whereas
                              Indonesia is offering its produce at USD 6650/ Tonne (as on 28th of Sep’12)

                           Technical Outlook

                              NCDEX Pepper Oct, Futures prices moved up significantly to settle at Rs 43435 levels.
                              Prices could escalate to Rs 43573 level breach of this it could extend to Rs 43711 levels.
                              Support is at Rs 43248 levels and next support is at Rs 43061 levels. Volumes showed
                              positive movement from 273 to 438MT, Open interest declined to 5592 from previous
                              day's of 5630.
                              Continue with our long position.


                           Commodity          Strategy      Entry          Target-1      Target-2      Stop Loss

                             Jeera Nov’12      Sold            13945          13726          13610        14280
                             Pepper Oct’12     Bought          43310          43730          43910        42910




Emkay Commotrade Limited                                                                                                5
                           Chilli
                           Fundamental Review

                              Chilli spot prices remained steady at A.P mandi. At Guntur market, chilli spot prices
                              remained unchanged at previous levels. 334 variety chilli traded steady at Rs 57 per kg
                              while Teja chilli eased by Rs 2 at Rs 75 per kg respectively. While, half wrinkled and full
                              wrinkled prices ruled flat at Rs 60 per kg respectively. Arrivals and sales in the market
                              reported as 20000 bags (each bag weighs 45kg).

                           Technical Outlook

                              NCDEX Red Chilli Nov, futures prices marginally corrected to close at Rs 5208 levels.
                              Entry got initiated not traders are advised to continue with long position.
                              Resistance is seen at Rs 5238 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 5269 levels.
                              Support is at Rs 5180 levels and next support is at Rs 5153 levels. Volumes declined
                              from previous days of 214 to 113 MT.
                              RSI-14 is giving positive signal.
                              Traders are advised continue with long position.


                           Turmeric

                              Spot market is closed due to Telangana strike.

                           Technical Outlook

                              NCDEX Turmeric Oct, futures prices have not changed much from the previous close of
                              Rs 5654 levels.
                              Entry was not initiated but prices are trading at same level as that of previous day.
                              Resistance is seen at Rs 5717 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 5774 levels.
                              Support is witnessed at Rs 5595 violation of this could correct to next support of Rs 5530
                              levels.
                              Volumes showed positive movement from 231 to 836 MT, Open interest declined to
                              13500 from previous day's of 14640 RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side..
                              Traders are advised to continue with long.




                               Commodity         Strategy         Entry        Target-1     Target-2 Stop Loss

                               Chilli Nov’12         Bought          5187         5290         5362          5124

                              Turmeric Oct’12        Bought          5610         5745         5851          5554




Emkay Commotrade Limited                                                                                                    6
                                                                     Emkay Commotrade Ltd

     Member: National Commodities and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) Membership ID: 00259, Multi Commodity exchange
   (MCX) Membership ID: 12830, Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX) Membership ID: 1340 and National Spot Exchange (NSEL)
                                                  Membership ID: 12050

                        Paragon Center, C- 06, Ground Floor, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai - 400013, India.
                                               Tel: (91-22) 66245 454, Fax: (91-22) 66245499
                              E-mail:emkay.commotrade@emkayglobal.com Website: www.emkayglobal.com




 DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to
 any other person. The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries, including the United States.
 Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal
 information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an
 offer to buy any commodity in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Emkay Commotrade Ltd. is obligated to
 call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information
 that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Neither Emkay Commotrade Ltd., nor any person
 connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own
 professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis
 the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are
 cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We and our affiliates, officers, directors, and
 employees world wide, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or
 sell the commodities thereof, of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such commodities and earn brokerage or other
 compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company (ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking
 services for such company(ies)or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any
 recommendation and related information and opinions. The same persons may have acted upon the information contained here. No part of this material may be
 duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Emkay Commotrade Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it
 is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.




Emkay Commotrade Limited                                                                                                                                                     7

								
To top