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Agri Daily
Agri Daily
Agri Daily
Oct 03, 2012
Oilseed and Edible Oil Complex: Soybean/ RM Seed/ Soyoil
Soybean
Fundamental Snapshot
Weak bias continued in today’s trade session on start of arrivals from producing regions.
Sharp fall in prices of edible oils as well as oilmeals further added weak tone to the
soybean prices. Weak cues from global market also added bearish tone to the domestic
market trade.
Soybean prices at Indore market moved down by Rs 217 per quintal to Rs 3098.5 per
quintal. In Kota market, soybean prices moved down by Rs 524 per quintal to Rs 3204
per quintal. Soybean prices at Nagpur market moved down by Rs 344 per quintal to Rs
3200 per quintal. Soybean arrivals to the markets at MP and Maharashtra totaled at 0.75
lakh bags 0.25 lakh bags of 90kg respectively.
As per First Advance estimate released by Ministry of Agriculture, India’s soybean
production for 2012-13 to stand at 12.62 million tonnes, which is up by 2.77 from 2011-12
production of 12.28 million tonnes. New crop arrivals slowly started at MP markets with
excessive moisture content and trading at discount price than old crop.
As per IGC, Maize and soybean markets have retreated amid seasonally rising supplies
and suggestions of better than previously expected soybean yields. The forecast 8%
recovery in world soybean production in 2012-13 depends on record South American
crops. CBOT soybean traded at (Nov’12 contract) 1601 cents per bushel on Sept 28th
trade session, up by 30.25 cents per bushel.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Soybean Nov, futures prices corrected significantly to close at Rs 3076 levels.
Market was down by 3.97%.
Prices opened on the lower side, entry was not initiated.
Resistance is at Rs 3145 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 3215 levels. Support
is at Rs 3040 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 3005 levels.
Volumes showed positive movement from 8540 to 10136MT, Open interest depleted from
148010 to 145620.
MACD-14 is trading below zero level. To suggest further correction ahead of the session.
Traders are advised to enter fresh sell.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Soybean Nov’12 Sell 3121 3040 3010 3189
Rape/ Mustard Seed
Fundamental Snapshot
Weak bias witnessed in RM seed prices in today’s trade session owing weakness in
overall oilmeals as well as edible oils market. Spot prices at Jaipur market moved down
by Rs 139 to Rs 4061 per quintal in today’s trade session. In Alwar market, RM seed
prices moved down by Rs 116 to Rs 4125 per quintal.
At the same time, RM seed prices at Sri Ganganagar market have moved down by Rs
165 to 3935 per quintal. RM oil prices at Sri Ganganagar traded at Rs 745 per 10 kg,
down by Rs 18 per 10 kg from previous day.
There are hopes that rain in rabi is to be good to support RM seed crop at major
producing regions like Rajasthan and Punjab. Kharif season oilseeds spillover effect is to
keep RM seed prices in check for medium term.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Rape Seeds Oct, futures prices tumbled by -112 rupees to close at Rs 3767
levels.
Entry was not initiated but corrected till our target.
NCDEX Rape seeds Nov, futures prices traded on bearish note to close at Rs 3810
levels.
Prices could escalate to Rs 3881 level breach of this it could extend to Rs 3953 levels.
Support is witnessed at Rs 3767 violation of this could correct to next support of Rs 3725
levels.
Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 4109 to 6163 MT, Open interest inclined
from previous day's of 46200 to 49280.
RSI-14 is trading in oversold territory to signal continuation of downward trend
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
1
RM seed Nov’12 Sell 3852 3767 3725 3921
Emkay Commotrade Limited
Soyoil
Fundamental Snapshot
Weak bias continued in domestic edible oil market in today’s trade session as a result of
sharp fall in Malaysian palm oil prices. Refined soyoil prices at Indore bench market
moved down by Rs 30 to Rs 650-655 per 10 kg (without VAT 5%) in today’s trade
session.
At the same time, imported soya degum (crude) CIF Mumbai moved down by US$ 20 to
US$ 1165 per tonne. Appreciating rupee to make imports cheaper amid domestically
crushed edible oils to increase in coming days remain bearish impact on market.
BMD CPO prices settled down by MYR 82 to MYR 2464 per tonne in today’s trade
session. Sept month CPO and palm products exports from Malaysia stood at 1.427
million tonnes, up by 0.5% from last month.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Soya Oil Nov, futures prices corrected significantly to close at Rs 626.95 levels.
Prices opened with a gap on the lower side and continued to trade on negative
side.
Resistance is at Rs 640 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 653 levels. Support is
at Rs 620 levels breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 613 levels.
Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 9949 to 13079 MT, Open interest
increased to 101400 from previous day's of 92900.
RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side
Traders are advised to sell.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Soyoil Nov’12 Sell 637 621 613 646
Cottonseed Oilcake
Fundmental Review
Cottonseed Oilcake gains at spot market. At Aligarh market, COC traded in the range of
Rs 2300-2400/quintal with arrivals of 4tons. While at Kadi and Akola market, COC quoted
higher at Rs 1390.4 and 1362/quintal respectively.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Cotton Seed Oil Cake Dec, futures prices moved up by 16 rupees and finally
settled at Rs 1344 levels.
Upside movement has clearly confirmed technical breakout.
Entry got initiated now traders are advised to book profit at around Rs 1345-1346 levels.
Resistance is at Rs 1364 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 1385 levels. Support
is at Rs 1319 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 1295 levels.
Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 2474 to 4302MT, Open interest
increased to 54600 from previous day's of 51290.
Now traders are advised to book profit in short position and Take long position at
Rs 1326 levels.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Cottonseed oilcake Dec’12 Buy 1326 1364 1385 1293
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Grains Complex:
Maize
Fundamental Snapshot
Steady to weak bias witnessed in domestic maize market in today’s trade session. Nearing
kharif maize arrivals season is bringing pressure on maize prices as buyers waiting for the
downside limit in prices.
Maize in Davangere market moved down in today’s trade session by Rs 30 per quintal to
Rs 1150-1300 per quintal at arrivals of 6500 quintals. In Sangli market maize prices were
remained steady at Rs 1490 per quintal at arrivals of 500 quintals. Nizamabad market
closed today.
As per IGC, Maize prices are down m/m on improved seasonal availability and low US
export demand, but the global market remains tight with stocks expected to decline by 12%.
Maize markets have retreated on seasonally rising supplies. IGC projected global corn
production to hover at 833 million tonnes, down by 42 million tonnes (4.80%) from last year.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Maize Nov, futures prices marginally corrected to close at Rs 1266 levels.
It has traded to form dark cloud candlestick pattern to suggest marginally correction before
any upside movement.
Prices are holding upward trendline support.
Resistance is seen at Rs 1282 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 1298 levels.
Support is at Rs 1256 levels and next support is at Rs 1246 levels.
Volumes declined from previous days of 993 to 881MT. Open interest appreciated to
67090 from previous day's of 66040
Traders are advised to continue with same long position.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Maize Nov’12 Buy 1261 1285 1297 1239
Wheat
Fundamental Snapshot
Steady to weak bias continued in domestic market wheat prices in today’s trade session on
lack of buying queries amid surplus stocks in the market. Wheat prices moved down further
by Rs 20 per quintal at Delhi market in todays trade session. Wheat prices at
Shahajahanpur market marginally up by Rs 3 to Rs 1315 per quintal. Wheat prices at Kota
market moved down by Rs 70 per quintal to Rs 1400 per quintal at arrivals of 756 tonnes.
Higher stocks in the market to keep the wheat prices in check till sowing perspectives get
confirmed.
Worsening outlook for Black Sea and Australian wheat is adding bullish tone to the wheat
prices and even IGC cut global wheat production further in its recent monthly report. IGC
projecting (Sept’12 report), world wheat production in 2012-13 at 657 million tonnes, down
by 5 million tonnes from last month projection and is 39 million tonnes below last season’s
record. Global use of wheat is expected to fall by 2%, to 679million tonnes, as high prices
reduce feed demand.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Wheat Oct, futures prices marginally corrected to close at Rs 1441 levels.
Entry was not initiated but corrected till our target.
Now traders are advised to shift to Nov’12 contract.
NCDEX Wheat Nov, futures prices traded on bearish note to close at Rs 1427 levels.
Prices could escalate to Rs 1449 level breach of this it could extend to Rs 1471 levels.
Support is witnessed at Rs 1408 violation of this could correct to next support of Rs 1389
levels.
Spread between Oct’12 and Nov’12 is 13 rupees. This difference may go upto 38 rupee in
next one to two weeks.
Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 132 to 232MT, Open interest increased to
9850 from previous day's of 9330.
RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side
Prices have settled exactly above the horizontal support of Rs 1404 levels. So
traders are advised to sell only below Rs 1395 levels.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Sell only
Wheat Nov’12 1395 1345 1305 1434
Emkay Commotrade Limited below 3
Pulses: Chana
Fundamental Snapshot
Weak bias witnessed in chana prices across the spot markets in today’s trade as a
result of lean buying queries. In Delhi, Indore and Amravati markets, chana prices
moved down by Rs 50-275 per quintal in today’s trade session.
Similarly, Vijay variety chana in Akola market was traded higher by Rs 50 at Rs 4325 per
quintal. However, in Amravati market, chana prices were up by Rs 50 per quintal to Rs
4500 per quintal.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Chana Nov, futures prices plunged by -53, finally it closed at Rs 4160 levels.
Prices opened with gap down missing our entry level. But it corrected till our
mentioned target.
Resistance is at Rs 4209 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 4258 levels.
Support is at Rs 4099 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 4038 levels.
Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 3021 to 5200 MT, Open interest
increased to 52520 from previous day's of 51450.
RSI is implies prices to trade on negative note.
Traders are advised to wait for more clarity to take position.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Chana Nov’12 Stay away
Others: Gur
Fundmental Review
Gur price drops on new arrivals. New gur peri was on demanded at Rs 3800 a qtl while
old quality was quoted at Rs 3500 a qtl here amid rising arrival from U.P. Arrival of new
gur was reported nearly 200 bags in Muzaffar Nagar and there new gur Laddoo was
quoted at Rs 1380 per 40 kg.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Gur Nov, futures prices plunged by -11, finally it closed at Rs 1156 levels.
Resistance is at Rs 1165 level violation of this it could extend to Rs 1174 levels.
Support is at Rs 1147 breach of this level, then it could correct to Rs 1138 levels.
Volumes have moved up from previous day's of 231 to 513MT, Open interest increased
to 9690 from previous day's of 9100 RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side.
Spread between Nov’12 and Dec’12 is 34.5 rupees, this can come down to 12 rupee.
Traders are advised to continue with short position.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Gur Nov’12 Sold 1160 1146 1134 1171
Emkay Commotrade Limited 4
Jeera
Fundamental Snapshot
Jeera spot prices witnessed a steady trend at Unjha market.
Increased arrivals along with good demand from overseas restored the jeera spot prices
at previous levels.
Average price of jeera remained unchanged at Rs 155 per kg along with minimum and
maximum prices of Rs 145-165 per kg respectively.
Arrivals in the market have increased to 3000 bags compared to previous trade (as on
28th of Sep’12) arrivals of 1500 bags. Sales in the market remain unchanged at 2000
bags.
Total jeera arrivals (Unjha market) for the month of Sep’12 are reported as 49100 bags (1
bag = 55Kgs) out of these 42500 bags of jeera has been sold in the month of Sep’12.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Jeera Nov, Futures price made minor upside movement of 42.5 rupees to close
at Rs 13905 levels.
Entry got initiated now traders are advised to continue with short position.
Resistance is seen at Rs 14061 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 14218
levels. Support is witnessed at Rs 13726 violation of this could correct to next support of
Rs 13548 levels.
RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side.
Traders are advised to continue with shot.
Pepper
Fundamental Snapshot
Pepper spot prices continued to remain steady at previous levels.
Minimal demand from overseas along with declined arrivals in the domestic market
restored the pepper spot prices at previous levels in today’s trade.
At Cochin market MG-1 and Un-Garbled prices ruled flat at Rs 415 per kg and Rs 400 per
kg respectively. Likewise at Sakaleshpur market whole grade pepper spot prices
remained unchanged at Rs 390 per kg.
Indian origin pepper in the international market is trading at USD 7718/Tonne whereas
Indonesia is offering its produce at USD 6650/ Tonne (as on 28th of Sep’12)
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Pepper Oct, Futures prices moved up significantly to settle at Rs 43435 levels.
Prices could escalate to Rs 43573 level breach of this it could extend to Rs 43711 levels.
Support is at Rs 43248 levels and next support is at Rs 43061 levels. Volumes showed
positive movement from 273 to 438MT, Open interest declined to 5592 from previous
day's of 5630.
Continue with our long position.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Jeera Nov’12 Sold 13945 13726 13610 14280
Pepper Oct’12 Bought 43310 43730 43910 42910
Emkay Commotrade Limited 5
Chilli
Fundamental Review
Chilli spot prices remained steady at A.P mandi. At Guntur market, chilli spot prices
remained unchanged at previous levels. 334 variety chilli traded steady at Rs 57 per kg
while Teja chilli eased by Rs 2 at Rs 75 per kg respectively. While, half wrinkled and full
wrinkled prices ruled flat at Rs 60 per kg respectively. Arrivals and sales in the market
reported as 20000 bags (each bag weighs 45kg).
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Red Chilli Nov, futures prices marginally corrected to close at Rs 5208 levels.
Entry got initiated not traders are advised to continue with long position.
Resistance is seen at Rs 5238 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 5269 levels.
Support is at Rs 5180 levels and next support is at Rs 5153 levels. Volumes declined
from previous days of 214 to 113 MT.
RSI-14 is giving positive signal.
Traders are advised continue with long position.
Turmeric
Spot market is closed due to Telangana strike.
Technical Outlook
NCDEX Turmeric Oct, futures prices have not changed much from the previous close of
Rs 5654 levels.
Entry was not initiated but prices are trading at same level as that of previous day.
Resistance is seen at Rs 5717 levels breach of this level then it can test Rs 5774 levels.
Support is witnessed at Rs 5595 violation of this could correct to next support of Rs 5530
levels.
Volumes showed positive movement from 231 to 836 MT, Open interest declined to
13500 from previous day's of 14640 RSI is indicating prices to trade on lower side..
Traders are advised to continue with long.
Commodity Strategy Entry Target-1 Target-2 Stop Loss
Chilli Nov’12 Bought 5187 5290 5362 5124
Turmeric Oct’12 Bought 5610 5745 5851 5554
Emkay Commotrade Limited 6
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