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					Thailand Financial Governance
            by Dr.Somjai Phagaphasvivat
        Thailand GDP Growth Forecast (%)
15.0
        11.2
10.0           8.6 8.1 8.3 9.0 9.2
                                        5.9                                  5.3 7.1 6.3         5.0
 5.0                                                         4.4 4.8                       4.5
                                                                       2.2
 0.0
                                              -1.4
 -5.0

-10.0
                                                     -10.2
-15.0
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
        Note : -
        Sourse : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/Thai_Key/Thai_KeyE.asp
        International Trade of Thailand
        Bil.US$
140.0
120.0
100.0
 80.0                                                                                             Export
 60.0                                                                                             Import
 40.0
                                                                                                  Balance
 20.0                                              12.2 9.2 5.4
                                                                2.4 2.73.7 1.4
  0.0 -10.2 -9.5 -7.8 -8.5                                                              2.2 2.3
                           -8.7 -14.6 -16.1 -4.6                                 -8.5
-20.0
    0

                  2

                        4

                                  6

                                            8

                                                       0

                                                               2

                                                                        4

                                                                                  6
  199

              199

                      199

                                199

                                          199

                                                     200

                                                             200

                                                                      200

                                                                                 200
-40.0

           Note : -
           Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
                  Export Value : % change (US$)
                                                                                           Avg’89-95 : 19.86
                                                                                           Avg’96-01 : 2.78
30
25       25.5                     22.2
                23.8                      24.8
20                                                                                             21.6
           14.3                                                19.5                    18.2              17.5
15                         13.4
                                                                                                 15.0
                        13.8
10
                                                                7.4            4.8
 5
                                                      3.8
 0                                        -1.9
 -5 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
                                                    -6.8
-10                                                             -7.1

     Note : Mar/2007 = 19.0
     Sources : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
                                                                                                                7
                Import Value : % change (US$)
40.0
                               31.9
30.0                                                               31.3                 25.7
                                                                                               25.9
20.0
           15.7            18.4                             16.9                17.4
10.0               12.4
               6.0                    0.6                 4.6                     7.0
 0.0
                                                           -3.0
-10.0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
                                       -13.4
-20.0
-30.0
                                                    -33.8
-40.0

   Note : Mar/2007 = 0.5
   Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
                       Current Account Balance
                                           (% of GDP)
15
                                                       12.7
                                                               10.2
10
                                                                      7.6

 5                                                                          4.4 3.7
                                                                                          3.3
                                                                                                1.7   1.6
 0
                                         -2.0
    1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
 -5                                                                               -4.5
                -5.5 -4.9 -5.4
      -8.3 -7.5                -7.9 -7.9
-10

     Note: -
     Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
                                                                                                       8
                      Current Account Balance
                                                                                           (billions of US$)
20
15                                                  14.3
                                                            12.5
                                                                   9.3
10
                                                                         5.1 4.7     4.8
 5
                                                                                            2.8       3.2
 0                                    -3.1
 -5 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
      -7.1 -7.4 -6.1 -6.1                                                         -7.9
-10                       -7.8
-15                              -13.2
                                         -14.4
-20

      Note : Mar/ 2007 = 2.2
      Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab52e.asp
                                                                                                            9
    Thailand International Reserves
         Bil.US$
80,000
70,000                                                                                               66.9 70.8'Mar
60,000
50,000                                                                                   49.8 52.1
                                                                                  42.1
40,000                                  37.038.7             34.7 32.6 33.0
                                                                           38.9
                                 30.2
30,000                    25.4                     26.9 29.5
                   21.1
20,000 14.2 18.4
10,000
     0
          90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
   Note : Monthly Update
   Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab49e.asp
                                                                                                                     10
            Thailand External Debt
  Mil.US$
120,000                                   109,276
                                     108,742 105,062
                                100,832
100,000                                           95,051

 80,000                                               79,715
                           64,867                          67,509
                                                                59,45951,783       59,935 59,334*Feb
 60,000                52,107                                            51,312 52,040
                  43,621
             37,878
 40,000 29,308

 20,000

      0
          '90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07
   Note : Monthly Update
   Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab50e.asp
                                                                                                   11
                         Thailand External Debt
       Mil.US$
120,000
                                             47,743 38,29428,421
                                       52,398
100,000                                                         19,539
                                                                         14,694
 80,000
                                                                                  13,389
                                  29,179                                               11,919                    18,206         Short
 60,000                                                   76,641                            19,904
                            22,634                                                                   12,174 16,014 18,776*Feb
                      18,914                       70,982       75,512                                                      Long
 40,000       15,391                         60,999                    65,021
        10,417                                                               54,120
                                      48,434                                       47,540 40,879
                                35,688                                                         39,138      40,063
 20,000                   29,473
                     24,707                                                                          36,026
                                                                                                                 40,558*Feb
        18,89122,487
      0
           1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

          Note : Monthly Update
          Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab50e.asp
                                                                                                                                        12
                External Debt per GDP
(%)
 80.0                                                         72.9
                                    69.1               69.9
70.0                                       65.9 64.8                 66.7
60.0                         51.7                                           56.1
                      46.7                                                         48.8
50.0        44.4 44.3
                                                                                          40.3 35.7
40.0 40.1
                                                                                                      32.5 33.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
 0.0
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
200
200
 Note : Yearly Update
 Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab50e.asp
                                                                                                                  13
  Thailand Foreign Direct Investment
      Mil.Baht
400,000
                                                                            361,174
350,000
300,000                                                                299,129
250,000                                              224,842 213,723
                                         209,888                  198,880
200,000                                                  147,256
150,000                             117,696 134,592
                                                 115,286
100,000 64,695 53,691           57,472
            51,389  43,812 49,887
                         33,241                                                 32,569*Feb
 50,000
      0
        1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
           Note : Monthly Update
           Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab60e.asp
                                                                                                    14
                              Public Debt
  (Mil.Baht)
3,500,000
                                                                                    3,158,168
                                                                        3,048,704
3,000,000                                             2,719,459 2,835,519              2,719,459
                                    2,502,773
2,500,000
                                                   2,025,511
                                          1,955,439
2,000,000
1,500,000                    1,212,300
                       892,600
1,000,000        689,900
          657,700
  500,000
       0
            1995'Sep   1997'Sep     1999'Sep      2001'Sep      2003'Sep       2005'Sep

   Source : กรมบัญชีกลาง กระทรวงการคลัง (ข้ อมูล ค.ศ.1995-1998)
          : http://www.pdmo.mof.go.th ( ข้อมูล ค.ศ. 1999-2006)
                                                                                                   18
                Public Debt (% of GDP)
(%)
60                                              57.34
                                      54.23
                                                                51.36
50                                                                      47.81 46.36
                              40.6                                                     43.89
                                                        39.48
40                                                                                               38.28

30
                      19.2
20     16.2 15.3

10

 0
     1995'Sep      1997'Sep          1999'Sep       2001'Sep        2003'Sep          2005'Sep
Source : กรมบัญชีกลาง กระทรวงการคลัง (ข้ อมูล ค.ศ.1995-1998)
       : http://www.pdmo.mof.go.th ( ข้อมูล ค.ศ. 1999-2006)
                                                                                                         19
                         Public Debt Summary Unit : million baht
Debt Outstanding                     June 1997              September 1999                Changes
1. Central Government                  176,500                    959,685                  783,185
1.1 Domestic Debt                       40,917                    598,640                  557,723
1.2 External Debt                      135583                     361,045                  225,462
2. State Enterprises
2.1 Guaranteed                         553,079                    911,212                  358,133
2.2 Non-Guaranteed                       n/a                      403,808                    n/a
3. Financial Institutions             1,047,673                   959,586                  (88,087)
Development Fund
3.1 Liabilities                        865,123                    814,595                  (50,528 )
3.2 Contingent liabilities             182,550                    144,991                  (37,559 )
4. Bank of Thailand
Foreign debt                             150                       520,692                520,542
Sources : Public Debt Management Office, Office of State Enterprise and Government Securities, Financial
Institution Development Fund, and Bank of Thailand
Changes in Central Government Domestic Debt
                                              Unit : million baht
                                            Amount
  1.New debt incurred                       579,321
  1.1 Fiscalization of FIDF debt            500,000
  1.2 Statutory capital support bonds
      Tier – 1                              35,500
      Tier – 2                               3,821
                                            40,000
  2. Principal repayment                    21,598

  Total change                              557,723

  Sources : Public Debt Management Office
      Significant External Loans Disbursed
                                                    Unit : million USD
                                               Disbursed Amount
1.Adjustment loans from multilateral sources
    World Bank                                      1,350
   Asian Development Bank                            600

2.Loans under Miyazawa Plan                          879

3.Social Investment Project Loan
   World Bank                                         52
   Japan Bank for International Cooperation           26
 Sources : Public Debt Management Office
     Thailand NPLs : Financial Institution Group
                         Mil.Baht
           3,000,000 2,674,533

           2,500,000
                                 2,094,425
           2,000,000

           1,500,000
                                             863,663
           1,000,000                                             770,393641,846
                                                       477,405                       598,563477,071
             500,000                                                                              236,787 23,9918*Mar
                     0
                          1998 1999* 2000               2001      2002      2003       2004      2005      2006      2007
Note : * including New IBFs and Credit Foncier Companies since July 1999
     **JAN 2006 : Beginning data at end-December 2002 onwards, NPL data means loan classified as substandard, doubtful, doubtful of loss
        and loss, including the amount of doubtful of loss loan which has already been written off earlier but has not yet been written back.

Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/Financial_Institutions/Npl_Fi/Npl_Fi_E.htm
                                                                                                                                            22
NPLs Outstanding - Classified by Financial Institution Group
   Budgetary Expenditure (% of GDP)
 (%)
20.00             19.51
19.50
19.00                                           18.83
18.50       18.24
                        17.93 17.79       17.76             17.8 17.7
18.00
                                    17.49                             17.5
17.50
      17.05                                           17.04
17.00
16.50
16.00
15.50
      1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
 Note : * 2003 : GDP forecast by NESDB,15 September 2003
        **2004 : GDP = 6,263,700 Mil.Baht according to Budget Document
 Source : http://dw.mof.go.th/foc/gfs/index.html
                                                                             26
               Budgetary Deficit or Surplus
                     (Fiscal Year : Oct-Sep)
    (Millions of Baht)




Note : Update (Since 1995-2003)
Source : http://www.bot.or.th/bothomepage/databank/EconData/EconFinance/tab33e.asp
                                                                                     25

				
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