Stockpile Transformation Study by HC121003135446


									The Reliable Replacement
   Warhead Program

        September 29, 2006

              Susan Stoner
        Office of Transformation
           Defense Programs
National Nuclear Security Administration
                                    Objectives for the Future
                                  Nuclear Weapons Enterprise
                                                Nuclear Posture Review
                                                    The New Triad
            “…I am committed to achieving            Nuclear and non-nuclear
            a credible deterrent with the               strike capabilities
            lowest-possible number of
            nuclear weapons ….”
                                                      Command and Control,
                                                       Intelligence, Planning
                 President Bush, May 2001

                                                Defenses             Responsive

                  Today                     Future
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                                                   Our Challenge

                   We must ensure a safe, secure, and reliable
                   nuclear deterrent for the foreseeable future.

       •    We assess increased risk in assuring long-term safety,
            security and reliability of today’s Cold War stockpile.

       •    The current nuclear weapons complex is not sufficiently
            “responsive” to fixing technical problems in the stockpile,
            or to reacting to potential adverse geopolitical change.

            Response: Explore a new approach to sustaining the
                 stockpile and supporting infrastructure.

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                           The Reliable Replacement Warhead

    •       The Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) program is
            structured to:
             • Sustain existing military capabilities
             • Assure long-term confidence in stockpile reliability
             • Enhance stockpile safety and security
             • Use replacement components and assemblies that are
               easier to manufacture
             • Exercise critical skills
             • Help develop a responsive infrastructure
             • Enable a reduced stockpile size
             • Decrease the likelihood of underground nuclear testing

              The RRW program is structured to provide a vehicle for
                 long-term sustainability of the nuclear deterrent.
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                                  RRW Decreases the Likelihood of
                                    Underground Nuclear Testing

            •   Highly optimized Cold War systems are designed close to
                performance “cliffs”
                 • Sensitive to small changes
            •   Relaxed constraints facilitate RRW design far from
                performance “cliffs”
                 • More resilient to change
            •   Confidence in predicting RRW performance without testing
                based on use of previous nuclear test data with stockpile
                stewardship tools

                         RRW is enabled by the success of the
                           Stockpile Stewardship Program.

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                                      A Successful RRW Program
                                         Enables Transformation
                            Legacy Warheads                     RRWs
        Optimized for       High yield-to-weight      Assured long-term reliability

            Certification   Increasingly difficult         Feasible under test
                                   over time                   moratorium
       Manufacturing         Hazardous/exotic        Reduced hazardous materials
                                   materials               Relaxed tolerances
                              Tight tolerances           Reduced process steps
                              Difficult contours          Easier to manufacture
               Safety         Legacy safety                 Enhanced safety
                            Some conventional        All insensitive high explosives
                              high explosive
              Security           Limited              Modern, integrated systems

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                           RRW and Responsive Infrastructure
                             Change the Way We Manage Risk

                                                Today                                          Future

             R                                                      Augmentation
             H                                                      Reserves
                                             Legacy                 Capability to
                                             Designs                Augment
             S                                                                               Capability to
                          Baseline                                  RRW                      Augment
                          Stockpile          Legacy
                                             Weapons                Refurbished
                                                                                             RRW, Adapted,
                                                                    Legacy                   New

                 Today                2012                  2012-2030               Future

            Increased confidence in warhead designs and demonstration of a
            responsive infrastructure will enable a reduction in stockpile size.

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                                      Nuclear Weapons Council
                                        RRW Feasibility Study
       •    Joint Navy-Air Force group overseeing an RRW design
            competition (two teams)
              • Assessing feasibility of RRW concept
              • Recommending preferred RRW design
       •    Evaluation criteria
              • Not negotiable: certain safety requirements and
                certifiable without underground nuclear testing
              • All other attributes trade-able

       •    Study to be complete November 2006
       •    Nuclear Weapons Council decides if RRW is feasible and
            recommends preferred design
             •   Congress must appropriate funds to proceed
       •    President authorizes RRW entry into the stockpile
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       •    The RRW program is underway with close cooperation
            between the NNSA and DoD.
       •    NNSA has a complimentary effort to develop a strategy to
            transform to a responsive nuclear weapons complex.
       •    A successful RRW program will assure, over the long term,
            the Nation’s ability to sustain the nuclear deterrent, while
            enabling a smaller, safer, more secure, stockpile with a
            reduced likelihood that we will ever need to conduct an
            underground nuclear test.

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