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					Services over Internet Protocol:
 Voice is just the beginning…

                              Marilyn Cade. Director
         IP Networking, Internet and E-Commerce
                                               AT&T
                                                and
             Chair, Positively Broadband Campaign
    Topics: Services Over IP: VoIP is Just the Beginning

• Top Ten Technology Trends
• The Rise of IP Communications
• VoIP: Voice is Just the Beginning
     –   A family of services that are just beginning
     –   New Thinking Needed on Models of Governance
     –   Revolutionary for Consumers
     –   Evolutionary for Enterprises
     –   A driver for Broadband for Consumers/Productivity and Cost
         savings to Enterprises, and Network Investment by Services
         Providers
• VoIP: Many Challenges: We Can’t Take VoIP’s Success for
  Granted.
• What Industry can do to ensure VoIP’s Success

                            Copyright 2004 AT&T
2
             Top Ten Technology Trends

1.  IP Will Eat Everything!
2.  Broadband Will Be Common
3.  Wireless Internet Will Be Big – Driving Mobility
4.  Sensor Networks Will Be Everywhere
5.  Convergence of Communications &
    Computers Will Become a Reality
6. Death of Locality
7. Security Is Critical
8. NexGen Distributed Computing Is Growing
9. Home LANs Will Proliferate
10. Data Mining     Information Mining
                   Copyright 2004 AT&T
 3
IP Will Eat Everything
      The Communications Industry is Undergoing Massive
                      Transformation
                 to One MPLS/IP Network
From:                                                                     To:
Legacy Networks                                                           Common IP/MPLS Backbone
                                       Voice
                                      Network

                               4ESS              5ESS                                                The Internet
                                        5ESS                        Frame/ATM/Voice/IP-VPN
          Frame/ATM



                                                                                               Route Servers   Route Servers
 BX9000               BX9000
           BX9000                     Private Line
                                                                                  MSE
                                       Network




          Global IP
                                                                                                       MPLS Core
          Network                                                                        MSE

                                                                    Frame/ATM/Voice/IP-VPN

                                IP Backbone

                                                                               MPLS: MultiProtocol Label Switching




                                                        Copyright 2004 AT&T
  5
                    IP is the the Bridge to the Future
                                                                                 Teleworker


                                                                     Wireless
                                                    Internet

  Private                                    Corporate                          Public Voice
                    Corporate
 Networks            Intranet                 Extranet                           Networks
(WAN/VPN)                                                                         (PSTN)
                                                                                •Scalable
•Secure                                                                         •Ubiquitous
•High Performance                                                               •Variable
•Predictable                                                                     Performance
•Reliable                                                                       •Seamless
•Non-Regulated                          Supplier                                •Flexible
                                                                                •Regulated
                                 LAN


                                                                    ISP
                                                         Supplier
                      Supplier         Teleworker                                Customer
                                   Copyright 2004 AT&T
6
    IP Enables the Next Generation of Applications
    COMMUNICATION LAYERS

        Content Layer                                         Open standard data
     (movies, books, papers,                                  networks, such as IP,
        information, etc.)                                    operate in layers that
                                                              allow applications to be
     Application Layer                                        separated from the
     (voice, video, web, chat,                                infrastructure
           e-mail, etc.)                                        – Enables multiple
                                                                  players to enter the
                                                                  market at different
        Logical Layer                                             layers and compete,
      (IP addressing, wireless
                                                                  stimulating innovation
            handoffs, etc.
                                                                – The type of the network
                                                                  (electric, co-axial,
       Physical Layer                                             copper, wireless, fiber)
     (electric, co-axial, copper,                                 no longer dictates the
           wireless, fiber)                                       application or services

       Concept compliments of Kevin Werbach

                                        Copyright 2004 AT&T
7
              IP Makes the Vision of Any Device to Any Device
                        over Any Network Possible
                                                                                                              Cordless
      Telephone                                                                                               Phone
                                        VoIP                                                   Laptop
                                                                              3G
                                        Router                                Cell
                                                       Cable                 phone        LAN              Phone
                                                       Modem                              Connection       Line
                                                                                               VoIP
                                                                                               Gateway
                                                                                                                             Wifi
IP Phone                                                                                                                     PDA
               DSL
               Modem                                   Internet/IP
                                                        Networks
                                                       (178,000+ networks)

                                                                                                             WiFi Access Point
                       DSL                  ISP
                       Line
                                            Gateway
                                                             PBX
                                                             Gateway                      Cable Modem

                                Phone
       Desktop                  Line
                                                                               iPBX                           IP Softphone
           Telephone
                                                                             (Gateway)

                              VoIP                                                                     IP Phone
                              Custom Dialer      PBX                          Telephone
                                                  Copyright 2004 AT&T
      8
VoIP
VoIP Technology Will Challenge Traditional Assumptions
          and Traditional Regulatory Models

 • “VoIP” is more than “Voice”
     – The Voice/ Data dichotomy is eroding rapidly
     – VoIP is not simple voice, but rather a converged multimedia
       application that supports voice, data and video
 • Innovation and investment by fixed and wireless operators in IP
   networks will have an economic impact
 • IP communications have the potential to disrupt the status quo
   in service provider environment, elevating applications
 • Revolutionary opportunity for consumers; evolutionary for
   businesses
 • VoIP development and regulation should follow a cellular model
   rather than a traditional fixed voice model – services will
   improve over time, not overnight, to meet customer demand

                          Copyright 2004 AT&T
10
                 The Eras of VoIP




                                         Emerging
                                        Applications

                    Convergence
                   & Consolidation

     Arbitrage




                  Copyright 2004 AT&T
11
        IP Enabled Voice Services – The Early Days


                                NCP                                      NCP
                                                                                   ADJ
                                              Edge-to-Edge Circuit                                  PBX
                Local         Edge Switch                            Edge Switch
              Local Network
                                   Upchain                                         ADJ

                  LEC             4ESS                                    4ESS                   Int’l
PSTN                                        Real Time Network Routing                           Carrier

                                                CCE                                                                Int’l
           NGBE
                                                                                                    NGBE          Carrier
                                      IP/Internet Core
                                                                                                    PNBE
                        NGBE

                                Local CLEC/ILEC                      Customer Router/Gateway


                                                                                         Definitions
                                                                           PBX
                                                                                         • BE – Border Element
                                                                                         • CCE – Call Control Element
                                                                                         • ING – Integrated Network Gateway
       Advanced Voice Features Across TDM                                                • NCP – Network Control Point
       VoIP transport with hop-on/hop-off                                                • NGBE – Network Gateway Border
                                                                                           Element
                                                                                         • PNBE – Peer Network Border
                                       Copyright 2004 AT&T                                 Element
 12
             IP Enabled Voice Services – Today’s Build-out

                                       IP Residence
                    EVPN           ℡
              IP PBX            CPE
                                         DSL
       Wholesale                         Cable                                              IP - Applications
       Customer                          Etc.                                      App
                                                  Local          CCE
                 Carrier                BE       App Srvr
                                                                                     App
                                                                                   Srvr
                                                                                                                               Int’l
                                PNBE                                                 Srvr      Media
                                                                                               Srvr                           Carrier
                             NGBE
                                                                                                                PNBE
                                                              IP/MPLS/                                 SI
                                                                                                            P
                            S IP                                                                                 NGBE
                                                            Internet Core
  LEC             ES-ING                                                                                          ES-ING

              IP-Enabled Edge                                 Local ING                                     IP-Enabled Edge
LEC - TDM                                                                                                                     PBX - TDM
                                                                          IP-Enabled Local Network

                                                               LEC


                                                                               Definitions
                                                                               •BE – Border Element
                                                                               •CCE – Call Control Element
 Interconnect local, toll & international switches with IP.
                                                                               •ING – Integrated Network Gateway
 Replace Adjuncts with Media Servers to reduce capex.
                                                                               •NGBE – Network Gateway Border Element
 Interconnect private VPNs with public VoIP services.
                                                                               •PNBE – Peer Network Border Element
                                                                               •BS - Business
                                                 Copyright 2004 AT&T
  13
     IP Changes Investment – New Investment Essential to
              Enable Real time IP Applications
                               Data/Communication Networks
                          Worldwide Equipment Investment Estimate

                  $70                                                           CORE Carrier and
                                                                                Enterprise Backbones
                  $60                                                           (DWDM, Routers,
                  $50                                                           Switches - optical, WAN,
      Billions of                                                               & converged)
      Dollars of $40                                                            ACCESS (CPE,
     Equipment $30                                                              Concentrators, DWDM
                                                                                Metro, Firewall, VPN,
     Expenditure                                                                Wireless LAN, Ethernet
                  $20
                                                                                Switches)
                  $10                                                           END POINT Enterprise
                                                                                CPE (IP PBXs & phones)
                   $0
                              )

                              )

                              )

                              )

                              )
                            02




                           (E




                           (E
                           (E




                           (E




                           (E
                        20

                        03

                        04

                        05

                        06

                        07
                     20

                     20

                     20

                     20

                     20


                             Source: Based on data from Prudential Securities

 Note: Software, network integration, consulting and product support expenditures are
 expected to match and eventually surpass total equipment expenditures per year.

                                    Copyright 2004 AT&T
14
              Voice Becomes Another Data Application
                        On an IP Network IP/Internet Applications
                                                                           Domain
Internet Protocol (IP) separates                          Voice   Video Name Service
                                                                                     WWW




                                                                                               Application Layer
                                                                                               Application Layer
   applications from the network:                                      E-mail
    –   Voice is not longer          Enhanced/
        restricted to telephone     Information
        networks                      Services
                                                                           SMTP
    –   Voice becomes another IP
        data application
                                                             SIP.. H.323.. POP3.. DNS.. HTTP




                                                                                               Logical Layer
                                                                                               Logical Layer
                                                              TCP…UDP...RTP…

                                                                     IP        (Internet
                                                                               Protocol)




                                                                                               Physical Layer
                                                                                               Physical Layer
                 Circuit Switched Voice                           Packet Routed Data
Traditional
 Telecom
 Services                                                     Satellite, Wireless, Cable,
                  Public Phone Network                        Phone, Electric Networks


                                    Copyright 2004 AT&T
  15
             New Models of Governance Needed
                                                    Current Norm
                                                 “Stovepipe” regulation by




                                Computing
                                                   industry and sectors



                 Telecom
     Media
                                                   but INTERNET
                                                    PROTOCOL
                                                 changes everything
              DEVICES                            • Vertical convergence
                                                 • Horizontal convergence
                                                     New Questions:
              CONTENT
                                                     • Jurisdiction
                                                     • Accountability
        APPLICATIONS                                 • Liability
                                                     • Industry/Gov’t
                                                     Cooperation
             NETWORKS

                           Copyright 2004 AT&T
16
                                    Definitions
     •   Internet Telephony: “In the beginning, Internet telephony simply
         meant the technology and techniques to let you make voice phone calls –
         local, long distance, and international – over the Internet using your
         PC…the definition of Internet telephony is broadening day by day to
         include all forms of media (voice, video, image), and all forms of
         messaging and all variations of speed from real-time to time-delayed.”

     •   IP Telephony: (As defined by Microsoft) “IP Telephony is an emerging
         set of technologies that enables voice, data, and video collaboration over
         existing IP-based LANs, WANs and the Internet. Specifically, IP Telephony
         uses open IETF and ITU standards to move multimedia traffic over any
         network that uses IP (the Internet Protocol).”

     •   Voice over IP (VoIP): “The technology used to transmit voice
         conversations over a data network using the Internet Protocol. Such data
         network may be the Internet or a corporate Intranet, or managed
         networks typically used by long and local service traditional providers and
         ISPs that use VoIP.”

                                            Source: Newton’s Telecom Dictionary, 18th edition


                                 Copyright 2004 AT&T
17
                                  VoIP:
         An information service that delivers voice
     communications and enables voice convergence with
           other data applications and devices.

                  WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS:
                  • Presence (Instant Messenger, Follow me)
                  • One Number / “Follow Me” Services
                  • IP Call Centers
                  • Universal Messaging
                  • Virtual Meetings / Collaboration (like
                    NetMeeting)
                  • Real time language translation
                  • IP Centrex
                  • Multi-Point Videoconferencing
                  • Desktop Multimedia
                  • Push to Talk Cellular
                  • Voice Chat




                          Copyright 2004 AT&T
18
                       The Evolution of Residential VoIP
 Computer
                                                                             2004
                                                                    WWW
                                                         Broad-
                                                         Broad-
Telephone                                                 band
                                                          band
                              VoIP     DSL or Cable                 PSTN
                             Gateway     Modem



      Computer                                        Broad-
                                                      Broad-        WWW
                                                       band
                                                       band
                              DSL or Cable
                                Modem

        Telephone                                   Phone            PSTN
                                                     Line



                 Telephone                                           WWW
                                                            Phone
                                                             Line
                                                                      PSTN
             Computer
                                14.4 – 56k Modem


        Telephone                                     Phone           PSTN   1992
                                                       Line


                                        Copyright 2004 2003
                                       Copyright AT&TAT&T
 19
       Snapshot: U.S. Domestic VOIP Market Just Beginning

Subs (M)                          Domstic IP Adoption
                                                                                                                       2004 Snapshot
                                                                                                                        2004 Snapshot
10.0
            U.S. POTS Lines ~ 100M
                                                                                                                 2nd line penetration is 18%
 8.0
                                                                                                Goldman Sachs    Only 25M homes have a high
                                                                                                In-Stat/MDR      speed internet connection
 6.0
                                                                                                Morgan Stanley   40 M households don’t have a
 4.0                                                                                                             PC

                                                                                                                 Traditional phone service has
 2.0                                                                                                             168 M lines; wireless 170 M
                                                                                                                 numbers
 0.0
           2003          2004           2005           2006           2007           2008                        # of Domestic VOIP players still
                                                                                                                 emerging
                                                                                                                 Cable: Cablevision, Cox, Time Warner
Domestic IP Telephony Subscribers (in millions)                                                                  ISP: Earthlink, Yahoo BB
                                                                                                                 LEC/IXC: Qwest, AT&T
                                                                                                                 Virtual: Vonage, Voiceglo, Voicepulse,
                                2003           2004           2005           2006           2007        2008      !connecthere, Packet8
Goldman Sachs                    0.1            0.9            2.2             3.8            5.7         7.7    PC: Net2Phone, Free World Dialup
Morgan Stanley                   0.1             0.8            1.4            1.9            2.1         2.5
In-Stat/MDR *                     1.3            1.7            2.2            3.2            5.2         7.2
* includes PC-to-Phone




                                                                      Copyright 2004 AT&T
20
                                         Emerging VoIP Revenues (hardware and services)
                                           are also Dwarfed by Global Voice Revenues
             •                       Global voice telecom revenues and network usage continue to grow driven by technology options
             •                       Communications is cumulative
             •                       Applications are shifting from wireline voice to a mix of voice, mobile, e-mail, chat and instant messaging



                                 1200
                                 1100
                                 1000
REVENUE (Billions of Dollars)




                                  900
                                  800
                                  700              Voice Telecom Services were $856
                                  600             Billion in 2000; expected to reach $1.4
                                                                                                                                               6
                                  500            Trillion by 2005 – compared to less than




                                                                                                                REVENUE (Billions of Dollars
                                                                                                                                               5
                                  400              $7 Billion for VoIP revenues by 2005
                                                                                                                                               4
                                  300
                                  200                                                                                                          3
                                  100                                                                                                          2
                                    0                                                                                                          1
                                                                                                                                               0
                                              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006                                                                     2002        2003        2004       2005        2006
                                                                                                                                               VoIP Technology (Equipment)   VoIP Service Provider (ISP)
                                                      VoIP Technology (Equipment)                                                              VoIP Wholesale (Network)

                                                      VoIP Service Provider (ISP)
                                                                                                    Sources: RADICATI Group, Inc., Voice Over IP Market Trends 2002-
                                                      VoIP Wholesale (Network)                      2006, IDC, Worldwide Telecommunications Services Revenue Forecast
                                                                                                    and Analysis, 2000-2005
                                                                              Svcs.
                                                      Worldwide Voice Telecom Copyright 2004 AT&T
                                21
VoIP’s Challenges: Operational,
 Standards, Policy/Regulatory
Who Should Set Policy for Global IP Networks and VoIP?




                                                    • ITU?
                                                    • WTO?
                                  •National         • WIPO?
     • FCC?
                                 Parliaments/       • IETF?
     • FTC?
                                Governments/        • ETSI?
     •Congress?
     •State                        Courts?
      Legislatures?           •European Union?
                                                                    •APEC?
                                                                 •National
                                                              Parliaments?




                  •National
               Parliaments?




                                     Copyright 2004 AT&T
23
                   International VoIP Policy Activity

 • ITU Survey on Implementation of IP                 •   More Recent Proceedings Considering VoIP
   Telephony in Developing Countries:                     / VoB Regulatory Framework
   Countries vary in their treatment re                     – US, UK, EC, Canada, Germany
   regulation:                                        •   Anticipated Proceedings:
      – Include VoIP/all forms in regulatory                – Hong Kong, India, Australia,
        system                                                 Singapore, Sweden
      – Prohibit implementation             -         •   Issues Arising in Proceedings and
        Not planning to regulate                          Discussions with Policy Makers
                                                            – Different issues emphasized outside
      – Some have not yet addresses these
                                                               US
        issues
                                                            – US focusing on “regulatory
      – 35 respondents to ITU survey: Only                     framework” primarily as it impacts
        Spain, Sudan, Singapore, Lituania,                     legacy inter-carrier compensation and
        Denmark said : should not be                           USO considerations
        regulated.                                          – Outside US, focus on “regulatory
 • OECD Report:                                                framework” in light of specific rights
                                                               and obligations that impact customer
                                                               demand, economic development, and
                                                               public safety (e.g numbering
                                                               resources, entry barriers, law
                                                               enforcement assistance)
                                                      •   Multilateral Interests : ITU and OECD

                                    Copyright 2004 AT&T
24
            International VoIP: Where it’s Growing


 •   Japan                               •   Turkey
 •   Korea                               •   Senegal
 •    China                              •   Nigeria
 •   Philippines                         •   Kenya
 •   India                               •   Mexico
 •   Hong Kong                           •   Colombia
 •   Poland                              •   Brazil
 •   Russia                              •   Peru
 •   Bulgaria
 •   Ukraine




                       Copyright 2004 AT&T
25
            VoIP’s General Challenges:
 Much Work to do to Compete with PSTN and Develop
          Right Regulatory Environment

 OPERATIONAL                                     POLICY
 • Physical and logical interconnection          • Regulatory classification
 • Infrastructure availability                   • Licensing restrictions
 • Infrastructure affordability                  • Number Resource Allocation
 • Quality of service                            • Interconnection Charges
 • Security                                      • Law Enforcement Assistance
 • Billing                                       • Access to Emergency Services
 • Customer care                                 • Emergency Service
 • Fulfillment and device support                • QoS/Power Supply
 • Coexistence with legacy equipment             • Tariff/Price Controls
    and networks increasing architectural        • Universal Service
    complexity




                               Copyright 2004 AT&T
26
     What WITSA Might Do to Ensure VoIP’s Success

 • Backgrounder Paper helps to frame VoIP’s story
 • Education and Briefings essential for policy makers across range
   of governmental agencies, NOT just regulatory agencies
 • Be aware that legislation is underway in many countries and
   may limit who and how VoIP can be provided; work with others
   to influence legislation.
 • Sometimes telecom legislation included VoIP; be aware that
   incumbents often seek to prevent anyone else from providing
   VoIP
 • Business Associations and allies, such as ISP Associations,
   others could join together to “tell VoIP’s story”, of economic
   investment, productivity, new consumer services, etc.
 • A “picture” is worth a thousand words approach: work with
   equipment providers, or VoIP Services providers to show the
   technology and tell the policy story at the same time
                        Copyright 2004 AT&T
27
Questions and Discussion

    Marilyn Cade
    mcade@att.com
     202-360-1196

				
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