AP Statistics Course Syllabus - DOC

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```					               AP Statistics Course Syllabus 2007 – 2008

Teacher: Mr. Corey Andreasen

Room: 220                      e-mail: candreasen@sheboygan.k12.wi.us
Phone: 803-7660                web page: http://teachers.sheboygan.k12.wi.us/candreasen/

Online textbook: http://www.keymath.com/SIA2                         Classpass: raiderStat

Welcome to AP Statistics! You are about to begin a course unlike any you have taken.
Statistics is a vital, thriving, and exciting field of study and in some ways may be the
most challenging course you have ever encountered.

This course is designed to develop students into competent users of statistics in real
situations. Therefore, beginning in Chapter 1, students will be immersed in real problems
using real data that can be meaningfully explored only with statistical methods. As in real
situations, students will be expected to justify the techniques they use, fully explain their
process, and interpret their results in the context of the problem.

AP Statistics is an activity-based course in which students actively construct their own
understanding of the concepts and techniques of statistics. The authors of our textbook
have also written some of the best supplemental activity books for teaching statistics and
have incorporated many of those activities into this text. Hence, lecture will be held to a
minimum. Rather, the classes will consist mostly of activities and discussions. Students
are expected to participate in the activities and discussions and to do their best to
understand what the activities show them about statistics. The general statistical topics
include Exploring Data, Planning and Designing a Study, Anticipating Patterns, and
Statistical Inference.

In addition, instruction on technology, with emphasis on the TI-nSpire and TI-84Plus
calculators and Fathom Dynamic Statistics software, is incorporated into regular class
activities. A graphing calculator is required for this course and we have a small set of the
most cutting edge graphing calculators on the market, the TI-nSpire CAS, which will be
given to randomly selected students to use for the year. Students are expected to learn to
apply the various techniques and formulas, as well as to explain how and why they work.
However, it is equally important for students to become highly proficient in the use of the
graphing calculator and statistical software as it applies to this course.

You will find my teacher web page to be a valuable resource for notes, demonstrations,
documents and links that can enhance your understanding of statistics. And, more than in
any mathematics course you’ve taken, that understanding is crucial. While you can have
success in many mathematics courses by following directions and remembering
procedures, that will not be the case in this course. To be successful, you will need to
understand the big ideas in order to be able to apply those ideas appropriately.
Required materials
Graph Paper Notebook. I recommend that you do all assignments on graph paper.
Graphing Calculator (TI-nSpire or TI-84+ recommended). This is a requirement for class
and for the AP Exam.
3-ring Binder. With all the handouts, and with me collecting and returning work, you will
need a binder to organize your things. You must have one.
Ruler. You will be drawing many charts and diagrams. Be neat. Use a ruler.
Colored pencils or pens. For those graphs and charts, as well as for taking notes, having 3
or 4 colors is really helpful.

Primary Textbook, References and Resource Materials
(Noted with the following letters in the assignment list)

SIA    Watkins, Ann E., Richard L. Scheaffer, and George Cobb. Statistics in Action:
Understanding a World of Data. 2nd ed., Key Curriculum Press 2007.

FTM Fathom Dynamic Data™  Student Edition, v. 2.0 Key Curriculum Press
(requires CD in the drive). Each student will be issued a copy of Fathom for use
in class and outside of class. There will be projects and assignments that are
expected to be done using Fathom and some data sets will be posted on the class

HTL    Huff, Darrell. How To Lie With Statistics Norton and Complany 1954, 1993

HO     Hand-out: other resource materials used in the classroom come from articles in
newspapers, journals, and the World Wide Web, as well as activities taken from
various resources. Students will be expected to read articles critically and
effectively communicate how they are related to the concepts of the course.

MS     Milestone activities will be assigned twice per quarter. These are open-ended
investigations and projects that will help deepen understanding of statistical
concepts, most of which will involve work with Fathom statistical software.
Students will be expected to describe clearly and completely the methods used,
the results of the study, and interpretations of these results.

APE    Released AP Exam questions will be assigned throughout the course, either as in-
class activities or as assignments to be turned in the following day. They will be
scored according to the scoring guidelines from AP Central, where clear
communication about methods and interpretations in context are paramount.

GC     We will have a partial set of TI-nSpire calculators to use for the year. These are
the cutting edge of graphing calculator technology and I think you’ll enjoy using
them. Students participating on the math team will get one. The rest will be
distributed randomly to those who would like to use one.
Timeline:
Introduction
Chapter 1: Statistical Reasoning: Investigating a Claim of Discrimination (5 days)
*   Exploring Data – Uncovering and summarizing patterns through data displays and
calculations
*   Making Inferences from data – deciding whether an observed feature of the data
could reasonably be attributed to chance
Section 1.1     Discrimination in the Workplace: Data         1-2 days
Exploration
Section 1.2     Discrimination in the Workplace: Inference 2-3 days
Exploring Data: Describing patterns and departures from patterns
Chapter 2: Exploring Distributions
You will learn to:
*   make and interpret different kinds of plots
*   describe the shapes of distributions
*   choose and compute a measure of center
*   choose and compute a measure of spread (variability)
*   work with the normal distribution
*   use statistical software and graphing calculators to explore the relationships
between various types of displays and the effect different settings (such as bin
widths for histograms) affects the look of the distribution
Section 2.1     Visualizing Distributions: Shape, Center,      1-2 days
Section 2.2     Graphical Displays of Distributions            1-2 days
Section 2.3     Measures of Center and Spread                  3-4 days
Section 2.4     Working with Summary Statistics                1-2 days
Section 2.5     The Normal Distribution                        2-3 days
Chapter 3: Relationships Between Two Quantitative Variables
You will learn to:
*   describe the pattern in a scatterplot, and decide what its shape tells you about the
relationship between two variables
*   find and interpret in context a regression line through the center of a cloud of
points to summarize the relationship
*   use the correlation as a measure of how spread out the points are from this line
*   read and interpret regression output from statistical software
*   use diagnostic tools and statistical software to check for information the
summaries don’t tell you, such as outliers and influential points, and decide what
to do with that information
*   make shape-changing transformations, using statistical software and graphing
calculators, to re-express a curved relationship so that you can use a line as a
summary
*   use statistical software and graphing calculators to create scatterplots, calculate
and plot regression lines, and create residual plots
Section 3.1    Scatterplots                                  1-2 days
Section 3.2    Getting a Line on the Pattern                 2-3 days
Section 3.3    Correlation: The Strength of a Linear         2-3 days
Trend
Section 3.4    Diagnostics: Looking for Features That the    1-2 days
Summaries Miss
Section 3.5    Shape-Changing Transformations                2-3 days
Sampling and Experimentation: Planning and conducting a study
Chapter 4: Sample Surveys and Experiments
You will learn:
*   reasons for using samples when conducting a survey
*   how to design a survey by randomly selecting participants
*   how surveys can go wrong (bias)
*   how to design a sound experiment by randomly assigning treatments to subjects
*   how experiments can determine cause
*   how experiments can go wrong (confounding)
*   how to reduce variation within treatments (blocking)
*   how to use a graphing calculator to select random samples (with and without
replacement) and randomly assign treatments
Section 4.1     Why Take Samples, and How Not To            2 days
Section 4.2     Random Sampling: Playing It Safe by         2 days
Taking Chances
Section 4.3     Experiments and Inference About Cause       3-4 days
Section 4.4     Designing Experiments to Reduce             3-4 days
Variability
Anticipating Patterns: Exploring random phenomena using probability and simulation
Chapter 5: Probability Models
You will learn to:
*   list all possible outcomes of a chance process in a systematic way
*   design simulations using dice, coins, random number tables, and random number
generator functions on calculators and software, and use them to estimate
probabilities
*   use the Addition Rule to compute the probability that event A or event B (or both)
occurs
*   use the Multiplication Rule to compute the probability that event A and event B
both occur
*   compute conditional probabilities, the probability that event B occurs given that
event A occurs
Section 5.1      Constructing Models of Random Behavior 2 days
Section 5.2      Using Simulation to Estimate Probabilities 2 days
Section 5.3      The Addition Rule and Disjoint Events         2 days
Section 5.4      Conditional Probability                       2-3 days
Section 5.5      Independent Events                            2-3 days
Chapter 6: Probability Distributions
You will learn:
*   the terminology of probability distributions
*   to construct probability distributions from data or theory
*   the concept and uses of expected value
*   to recognize and apply the binomial distribution and the associated commands on
the graphing calculator
*   to recognize and apply the geometric distribution and the associated commands
on the graphing calculator
*   to use the binomial and geometric pdf and cdf on a graphing calculator to
calculate probabilities
*   to simulate, using statistical software and graphing calculators, situations to which
a binomial or geometric model applies
Section 6.1     Random Variables and Expected Value            3 days
Section 6.2     The Binomial Distribution                      2 days
Section 6.3     The Geometric Distribution                     2 days
Chapter 7: Sampling Distributions
You will learn:
*   how to use simulation (with software, graphing calculators, and random nmber
tables) to generate approximate sampling distributions of common summary
statistics (point estimators) such as the sample mean and the sample proportion
*   to describe the shape, center, and spread of the sampling distributions of common
summary statistics without actually generating them
*   to use the sampling distribution to determine which results are reasonably likely
and which would be considered rare
Supplement The German Tank Problem                             2 days
Section 7.1     Generating Sampling Distributions              1 days
Section 7.2     Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean 4-5 days
Section 7.3     Sampling Distribution of the Sample            3-4 days
Proportion
Statistical Inference: Estimating population parameters and testing hypotheses
Chapter 8: Inference for Proportions
You will learn:
*   to construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a confidence interval to estimate the proportion of success in a
binomial population
*   to perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a significance test (hypothesis test) to decide if it is reasonable to
conclude that your sample might have been drawn from a binomial population
with a specified proportion of successes
*   to construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a confidence interval for the difference between the proportion of
successes in one population and the proportion of successes in another population
*   to perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a test of significance to decide if it is reasonable to conclude that
two samples might have been drawn from two binomial populations that have the
same proportion of successes
*   to construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret confidence intervals and tests of significance for experiments
*   to perform these procedures using statistical software and interpret the output
*   how the conclusions from an analysis are related to the way in which data were
collected
Section 8.1      Estimating a Proportion with Confidence        4-5 days
Section 8.2      Testing a Proportion                           4-5 days
Section 8.3      A Confidence Interval for the Difference of 2 days
Two Proportions
Section 8.4      A Significance Test for the Difference of      3-4 days
Two Proportions
Section 8.5      Inference for Experiments                      3-4 days
Chapter 9: Inference for Means
You will learn how to:
*   construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a confidence interval for estimating an unknown mean
*   perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a significance test for a single mean
*   construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a confidence interval for estimating the difference between two
means
*   perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a significance test for the difference between two means
*   construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a confidence interval to estimate the mean of the differences from
paired samples
*   perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing calculator,
and interpret a significance test for the mean of the differences from paired
samples
*   to perform these procedures using statistical software and interpret the output
*   draw conclusions from an observational study and how these conclusions differ
from those that can be drawn from a randomized experiment
*   link the design of an experiment to the type of analysis and the conclusions that
can be drawn
Section 9.1      A Confidence Interval for a Mean               4 days
Section 9.2      A Significance Test for a Mean                 5 days
Section 9.3      When Things Aren’t Normal                      3 days
Section 9.4      Inference for the Difference Between Two 5 days
Means
Section 9.5      Paired Comparisons                             5 days
Chapter 10: Chi-Square Tests
You will learn to perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing
calculator and statistical software, and interpret three chi-square tests:
*   Goodness of fit: Are the proportions of the different outcomes in this population
equal to the hypothesized proportions?
*   Homogeneity of proportions: Are the proportions of the different outcomes in this
one population equal to those in another population?
*   Independence: Are two different variables independent in this population?
*   to perform these procedures using statistical software and interpret the output
Section 10.1 Testing a Probability Model:                       2-3 days
The Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test
Section 10.2 The Chi-Square Test of Homogeneity                 2-3 days
Section 10.3 The Chi-Square Test of Independence                3-4 days
Chapter 11: Inference for Regression
You will learn:
*   that the slope of a regression line fitted from sample data will vary from sample to
sample, and what things affect this variability
*   how to estimate the standard error of the slope
*   how to construct, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing
calculator, and interpret a confidence interval for the slope
*   how to perform, by formula and by using statistical features of a graphing
calculator, and interpret a significance test to determine whether the slope is
different from a hypothesized value
*   to perform these procedures using statistical software and interpret the output
*   how to use graphical information to know when to trust confidence intervals and
tests
*   how to transform variables to make inferences more trustworthy
Section 11.1 Variation in the Slope from Sample to              3 days
Sample
Section 11.2 Making Inferences About Slopes                     2-3 days
Section 11.3 Transforming for a Better Fit                      2-3 days
Putting it all together
Chapter 12: Statistics In Action: Case Studies
You will learn to:
*   select the appropriate procedures from the course to analyze data from different
situations
*   support conclusions with graphical and statistical evidence
Section 12.1 Mum’s the Word!                                    1 day
*   Produce bigger and better flowers
Section 12.2 Keeping Tabs on Americans                          2 days
*   Gather information on Americans
Section 12.3 Baseball: Does Money Buy Success?                  2 days
*   evaluate the economics of Major
League Baseball
Section 12.4 Martin v. Westvaco Revisited: Testing for          2 days
Discrimination Against Employees
* Study possible discrimination in
employment

Tests and Quizzes
Projects
Daily Assignments and AP Exam Questions

Tests and Quizzes:
There will be a test and one to three quizzes each chapter. There will usually be a mixture
of multiple-choice and free response questions. The free response questions ALWAYS
require good explanation with complete sentences, appropriately supported by graphs
and/or calculations. You may be used to courses where, if the answer is correct, it’s OK
not to explain. That is not the case here. Little or no credit is given for correct answers
without appropriate support and explanation. Tests and quizzes count about half of your

I do not have a preset grading scale. During this course we will learn why such a scale,
while it sounds rigorous, is actually meaningless. Rather, I look at the distribution of
scores and use my professional judgment to determine where the grade cutoffs lie on each
task. I know what I expect for ‘A quality’ work, ‘B quality’ work, etc. and it doesn’t
generally equate to any frequently used scale. You will have ample examples of my
expectations to know what is required for the grade you desire.

Some of the questions are challenging and a thorough, complete answer is required for
full credit. You may be surprised at low raw scores at first. Don’t be alarmed. This is
often the case when you take a challenging course. I try to keep the median score is in the
60-70% range and it is generally given a grade in the B range. This seems to equate pretty
well to the AP Exam where a raw score of 40-43% is generally the cutoff for a score of 3
which most colleges consider a passing grade – equivalent to a C in a college course.
(Note that even professional test-writers must adjust the cutoff each year to get
equivalently difficult exams. No preset scale is used even on the AP Exam!)

Second, there is sometimes a perception that a higher grading scale (needing 95% for an
A rather than 90%, for example) means a class is more challenging. I believe the opposite
is true. I can ask more challenging questions, expect more reasoning and clearer
explanations, and push you further if losing a couple points doesn’t mean bombing the
test.

Projects:
You will be given several projects throughout this course. Some will be rather short term,
requiring only a couple days. Others will require more time. Generally these projects will
ask you to demonstrate a ‘big picture’ understanding, putting together several ideas that
you have studied. Projects will often require that displays be imported from either
Fathom or a graphing calculator, and I will be happy to assist you with doing this. But
you will be spending time on computers outside of class.
Daily Assignments and AP Exam Questions:
Homework will be assigned most days, and it will be collected almost every day. The
homework assignment list will be available from my website (address above) and from
our Edline site. I vary how I grade homework. Sometimes I look for overall completion.
Sometimes I pick out an important problem or two and grade them carefully, writing
letter grades on homework is higher than that for tests and quizzes. Homework
assignments must be done well to earn an A.

AP Exam Questions are actual questions from old AP Exams. They will be given,
sometimes as part of homework, sometimes in class for group or individual work,
sometimes as part of a test or quiz. They will always be graded according to the scoring
guide from the exam. These are one of the best tools to use in preparing for the AP Exam
and we will use them often.

In General:
Remember that learning is a process. You will be frustrated sometimes. Unfortunately
that’s part of learning. But if you keep with it, ask questions, follow my guidance, and
have patience, you will do well.

I can tell you this. If you do your homework on time and participate in class you will
most likely get at least a C. Getting an A, however, requires more. Don’t get me wrong, I
expect the vast majority of you will get an A or B, but it doesn’t happen without work.
Sample Milestone Assignment: (adapted from a project by Murray Siegel)

Quarter 1 Project
Univariate Exploratory Data Analysis

Someone often asks during the first week, “Are we going to be talking about baseball
statistics?” Well, here’s your first chance! In fact, you can look at statistics in whatever
context or discipline you choose: sports, medicine, television ratings, incomes, or
anything else you might like to explore.

Your will obtain at least three sets of data for a particular measurement, and each data
set should contain at least 20 data points. These could be the number of interceptions
thrown by each NFL team in three different years, CHD death rate by country for three
different continents or years, Nielsen television ratings for the top 20 TV shows for three
different years, etc. (Note, the years do not need to be consecutive.)

You will submit a written report analyzing the data sets, complete with the data,
appropriate plots, descriptions of the distributions, and possible reasons for any
similarities or differences in the distributions.

Step 1: Project Approval
By October 18 you should submit your measurement, the three data sets, and
the source for the data to Mr. A for approval.

Step 2: The final project
 A list of the values for each set
 Comparative dotplots or histograms, and boxplots for the data sets.
 A table of the means, standard deviations, medians, quartiles, and IQR for
each data set.
 A description of each distribution comparing shape, centers, spreads, and
outliers.
 A description of what features of the distributions are more easily seen with
the different types of plots.
 Some good reasons for differences between the three sets. You may need to
use some previous knowledge or do a little research to find some plausible
explanations. (For example, was there a rule change that would affect the
number of interceptions quarterbacks are throwing, or is there a difference in
living standards that might account for different rates of infant mortality in
different parts of the world?)

Format: Write this as an essay.
1. Begin with an introduction of your topic, including the reason you chose it and what
you thought you might find.
2. Proceed with your description, showing the data, the plots, and the summary
statistics.
3. Next, do your analysis, comparing the distributions using summary statistics as
support and describing features that are apparent with each type of plot. Be sure to
use language of comparison rather than listing separately the features of each
distribution.
4. Plots and statistical displays may be created using Fathom, graphing calculator, or
other software and pasted into the document at appropriate places.

This project will be due on XXX.

Some websites that might provide good data hunting, some of which are readily
importable to Fathom:
Data and Story Library: http://lib.stat.cmu.edu/DASL/
Den of Inquiry: http://www.denofinquiry.com/nhanes/source/choose.php
Centers for Disease Control: http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/hus05.pdf#summary
A Google search with proper keywords will often find you something as well.
Sample Milestone Assignment

ACT Scores Data Project

The average ACT mathematics scores for the past five years are given below:

23.3, 23.1, 22.9, 23.3, 22.8

These are all above the state average but, worried by this decline, our principal suggested
setting a goal for improvement. He suggested that we implement some strategies to raise
our average ACT score in by three points. You will explore ACT school data more fully
to shed some light on this issue.

Open the Fathom file WisconsinACT.ftm. There are two collections in this file. The
first, Wisconsin Public School ACT Data shows data for the 2005-2006 school year for
all schools for which the data was available. The variables are:

School_Name: The name of the high school
Enrollment_Grade_12: The number of seniors in 2005-2006
Percent_Taking_Test: The percent of seniors taking the ACT in 2005-2006
ACT_Math: The school average for the ACT mathematics test
Peer_Group: Schools to which we are interested in being compared

The second collection, Sheboygan North ACT Trend, has four variables:

Year: The year the test was taking.
ACT_Math: Our school’s average for the ACT mathematics test
State_Average: The state average for the ACT mathematics test
Diff: The difference of our average ACT mathematics score and the state average

You will explore the following questions. Write your response in essay format,
describing each question you are exploring, the approach you used in exploring it, and
any observations or conclusions. These observations and conclusions should be supported
by appropriate plots, descriptions, summary statistics, and/or inference procedures, pasted
appropriately into your Microsoft Word document. Some questions for you to explore:

*    Is there an alarming decrease in our ACT scores since 1997? How would you
determine this? Even if our scores were increasing, if the state averages were
climbing faster than our scores, this might be cause for concern. How have our
scores fared in relation to the state averages?

*    How are we doing compared to the other schools in the state? To others in our ‘peer
group?’
*   Is improving our average ACT score warranted? Why or why not? If so, is 3 points
a reasonable goal?

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