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					US GLOBEC Meeting
Boulder, Colorado Feb. 17, 2009




    Results From Comparative Ecosystem
   Studies within GLOBEC: Examples from
            SPACC, CCC and ESSAS

                             Ken Drinkwater
         Institute of Marine Research and Bjerknes Center
                for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
                  Outline

•Why comparative studies?
•Types of comparisons
•Examples
  Species –Cod, Lobster
  Ecosystems – Upwelling, Subarctic Seas
•Problems
•Concluding Remarks
Why Comparative Studies of Ecosystems?
                       1. Cannot run controlled
                          experiments on ecosystems
                       2. Provides insights that one
                          cannot obtain by looking at
                          a single ecosystem

3. Ecosystems are complex – can help determine
   what is a fundamental process and what is unique.
4. Increases statistical degrees of freedom

5. Sharing approaches and methodologies
             Types of Comparisons
There are many types of comparative studies.
1. Same ecosystem type but different geographic
   regions (upwelling regions, subarctic seas)
2. Different ecosystems, e.g. tropics vs. polar
   ecosystems.
3. Same species but different geographic
   (hydrographic) regions, e.g. Atlantic cod, American
   lobster.
4. Same ecosystem (geographic area) but at different
   times (forcing), e.g. cold period vs. warm period.
Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua)




CCC (Cod and Climate Change)
Cod
Distribution
 Temperature plays a large role in
determining the Growth Rate of cod


                        The relative
                        size of a 4-
                        year old as a
                        function of
                        mean bottom
                        temperature.

                          Brander 1994
The same
information
shown
graphically,
i.e. the
relative size of
the age 4 cod
at different
temperatures.
                 Cod Recruitment and Temperature
                                                                                     4     Faroes
             Warm Temperatures                                                                                                      Warm Temperatures
                                                                                     2

             increase Recruitment
                                                                                     0                                              decrease Recruitment
                                                                                   -2
                                                                                         -2 -1   0   1    2
                                                              4            Iceland                             Georges Bank
                                                                                                     4
                                                              2                             7        2
                                                              0
                                                                                                     0
                                                              -2
                                                                   -2 -1   0   1   2                 -2
                                                                                                              -2 -1   0   1    2
                                         4                                                                                4         North Sea
                                                  Barents Sea
                                         2                                 6                                          8   2
                                         0                                                                                0
                                         -2                                                                               -2
                                              -2 -1   0   1   2                                           -                    -2   -1   0   1
                     4       W. Greenland                                                                                                        4        Irish Sea
                                                      4           Log2                                                                   9
                     2                                                                                                                           2
                                                               Recruitment
                     0                                          Anomaly                                                                          0
                 -2                                                                                                                              -2
4                        -2 -1   0   1   2                                                                                                            -2 -1   0    1    2
         Newfoundland
2
                                 3                                                                                                                            10       4    Celtic Sea
0                                                                                    Temperature Anomaly                                                               2
-2                                                                                                                                                                     0
                                                                                                                                                                       -2 -2 -1
     -2 -1   0   1       2                            Mean Annual Bottom Temperature                                                                                              0    1   2
             2                                                                                                                                                                    11
American Lobster (Homarus americanus)
                                                      Lobster Landings
                                                      Magdalen Island



                                      3000
                                                            Magdalen Islands

In the late 1980s                     2500



landings rose                         2000
                      Landings (MT)



dramatically with                     1500


suggestions that it                   1000

was due to good
                                       500
management.
                                         0
                                             1920   1930   1940   1950   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000
                           16000
                                          Maine Lobster Landings
                           14000

                           12000
   Lobster Landings (MT)




                           10000

                            8000

                            6000

                            4000

                            2000

                               0
                                   1920       1940     1960        1980   2000



Again a dramatic rise in landings in the late 1980s-
early 1990s and claims that management was
working well.
     US and Canadian Lobster Landings
                          50


                                                 Canadian Landings
                          40
                                                 USA Landings
     Landings (1000 MT)




                          30


                          20


                          10


                           0
                            1880   1900   1920    1940       1960    1980   2000


The US and Canadian landings for each of the lobster
management regions showed similar trends (except for 4 out
of 34) with different management strategies. Could not have
been management strategies. It was not increased effort.
               SPACC
(Small Pelagics and Climate Change)
        Synchrony in Upwelling Areas

                                         Kawasaki, 1983;
                                         Bakun, 1997




                                         Bakun, 1989; 1997




Lead to much research on ecological teleconnections.
                         80                                        40

                         60                                        30

                         40
                                               California
                                                                   20
                                                                                                Also found tendency
                         20                                        10                           for anchovy and
                          0                                        0
                                                                                                sardines to be out of
Sardine x 10 4 (tons)




                                                                          Anchovy x104 (tons)
                        450        Japan                           45
                                                                                                phase (but not always
                        300                                        30

                        150                                        15
                                                                                                or everywhere).
                          0                                        0


                        450                                        1050

                        300                                        700
                                   Humboldt
                        150                                        350

                          0                                        0
                        2.5
                                           Sardine
      RIS




                          0

                                              Anchovy
                        -2.5                                                                             Lluch-Belda et al., 1989
                            1920       1940       1960      1980
               ESSAS
(Ecosystem Studies of Sub-Arctic Seas)
NORCAN (Norway-Canada Comparison of
        Marine Ecosystems)




   SSTs in the Labrador Sea   Coccolithophore Bloom at the eastern
                                  entrance to the Barents Sea
                 NORCAN

• Workshop Funded by NRC and DFO
• Held in Bergen in December 2005
•Meeting in St. John’s May 2006 and writing
 groups met in Bergen 2007
•Decided to write papers along discipline lines
 – physical oceanography, phytoplankton,
 zooplankton, fish (3) and marine mammals.
•Drafts nearing completion and hope to
 submit mid-2009
                                                                                  DEPTH
                                   STANDARD SECTIONS
           58                                                                       200 M
                                                                                    500 M
                                                                                    1000 M
                                                                                    2000 M                                                            KOLA SECTION TEMP TRENDS        NEWFOUNDLAND CIL         LABRADOR CIL
                                                                                    3000 M
                                                              LABRADOR SEA          4000 M                                           1.0                                                                                            25
           56




                                                          D                                                                                                                                                                         20
                                                         N
                                                    LA
                                                 IS                                                                                                                                                                                 15
                                             L
                                         A                                                                                           0.5
           54




                                       SE




                                                                                                                  TEMP ANOMALY(°C)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        CIL ANOMALY (MB)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    10
                       LABRADOR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    5
           52




                                                                                                                                     0.0                                                                                            0
LATITUDE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -5

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    -10
                                                                 TA
           50




                                                              VIS                                                                    -0.5
                                                            NA                                                                                                                                                                      -15
                                                          BO

                           NEWFOUNDLAND                                                                                                                                                                                             -20
           48




                                                         STATION 27
                                                                                                                                     -1.0                                                                                          -25
                                                                                                                                        1950       1955    1960   1965     1970   1975   1980   1985   1990     1995   2000     2005
                                                                                                                                                                                     YEAR
           46




                                                                                                                                                           VARDØ-N          NEWFOUNDLAND CIL           LABRADOR CIL
                                                                                                                                       1.0                                                                                    25
           44




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20
                                                                                                                                       0.5




                                                                                                              TEMP ANOMALY (OC)




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CIL ANOMALY (KM2)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10
           42




            65    62      59      56              53           50     47     44      41                                                0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5
                                       LONGITUDE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0

                                                                                             KOLA
                                                                                                                                      -0.5

                 SEAL ISLAND
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -5

                                                                                                                                      -1.0                                                                                    -10

                                                                                           VARDØ-N                                                                                                                            -15

                 BONAVISTA                                                          FUGLØYA - BJØRNØYA
                                                                                                                                      -1.5
                                                                                                                                            1975          1980           1985      1990         1995          2000       2005
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -20


                                                                                                                                                                                   YEAR


                                                                                                                                                   FUGLØYA-BJØRNØYA               NEWFOUNDLAND CIL             LABRADOR CIL

                •Ocean Temperature Trends                                                                                            1.0                                                                                      25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20

                between two regions Out-Of-Phase                                                         TEMP ANOMALY (OC)           0.5




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    CIL ANOMALY (KM )
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              15




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2
                prior to mid-1990s
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              10
                                                                                                                                     0.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              0
                                                                                                                                     -0.5

                •Similar Trends Recently                                                                                             -1.0
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -5
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -10
                                                                                                                                                                                                                              -15
                                                                                                                                     -1.5                                                                                     -20
                                                                                                                                            1975          1980       1985          1990         1995          2000       2005
                                                                                                                                                                                   YEAR
                        INDEX             1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960
                                          -0.25 -0.09 -0.56      0.60 -0.40    0.98   1.25 -0.48    0.64   0.94   1.29
Normalized                NAO

                         NUUK             0.80    0.51    1.09   0.43   0.57   1.32   0.18   0.98   1.48   0.72   1.60


indices                IQUALUIT

                      CARTWRIGHT
                                          0.36
                                          0.24
                                                  0.16
                                                  1.27
                                                          0.78
                                                          1.72
                                                                 0.18
                                                                 0.81
                                                                        0.17
                                                                        0.42
                                                                               1.92 -0.03 -0.06
                                                                               1.50   0.22 -0.05
                                                                                                    1.02 -0.04
                                                                                                    1.48   0.62
                                                                                                                  1.10
                                                                                                                  1.50

(blue-cold,            ST JOHN'S

                       NL SEA ICE
                                          -0.42   1.88    1.44   1.09   0.74 -0.26    0.04 -0.72    1.20 -1.01    0.87



fresh; red-            ICEBERGS

                     S27 SURFACE T
                                          0.44
                                          -0.15
                                                  1.09
                                                  1.13
                                                          1.08
                                                          1.16
                                                                 1.02   0.65   1.02   0.99 -0.25
                                                                 0.37 -0.92 -1.73 -0.14 -1.57
                                                                                                    1.11   0.10
                                                                                                    0.52 -0.84
                                                                                                                  0.73
                                                                                                                  0.40

warm,                S27 BOTTOM T

                    S27 AGERAGED T
                                          -1.11
                                          0.31
                                                  1.01
                                                  1.92
                                                          1.06
                                                          0.90
                                                                 1.05
                                                                 2.83
                                                                        0.58
                                                                        0.14
                                                                               0.75
                                                                               1.27
                                                                                      0.77 -0.03
                                                                                      1.28 -1.10
                                                                                                    1.10 -0.60
                                                                                                    2.47   0.59
                                                                                                                  1.19
                                                                                                                  0.52

saline) used    HAMILTON BANK SURFACE T   0.50    1.65    0.74 -0.15    1.45 -1.67 -0.86 -1.16      0.12 -0.21 -0.06

to estimate     HAMILTON BANK BOTTOM T

                 FLEMISH CAP SURFACE T
                                          -0.63
                                          -1.27
                                                  1.14 -0.87
                                                  1.06    1.42
                                                                 0.34 -1.23 -0.09 -0.13 -0.73
                                                                 0.13   0.19   0.08 -0.30 -0.62
                                                                                                    0.47 -0.47 -0.10
                                                                                                    0.50 -0.16    0.36

overall index    FLEMISH CAP BOTTOM T

                   SEAL ISLAND AVG T
                                          -0.44
                                          1.13
                                                  0.60    0.32
                                                  1.13 -0.17
                                                                 0.33   0.92
                                                                 0.56 -0.86
                                                                               1.22   0.11 -0.54
                                                                               0.39 -0.07    0.00
                                                                                                    0.90 -0.45
                                                                                                    0.02   0.83
                                                                                                                  0.69
                                                                                                                  1.61

for both            BONAVISTA AVG T

                   FLEMISH CAP AVG T
                                          -0.57 -0.05 -0.52 -0.07
                                                  1.41    2.01   1.24
                                                                        0.09
                                                                        0.10
                                                                               0.09
                                                                               0.03
                                                                                      0.71
                                                                                      0.32
                                                                                             0.82
                                                                                             0.03
                                                                                                    1.06
                                                                                                    1.29
                                                                                                           0.40
                                                                                                           0.45
                                                                                                                  0.73
                                                                                                                  1.14

Labrador           ST. PIERRE BANK BT

                    SEAL ISLAND CIL
                                          -0.46
                                          0.23
                                                  0.64
                                                  0.85
                                                          1.84 -0.84
                                                          0.06
                                                                        1.30 -1.16 -1.99 -0.54
                                                                 0.21 -0.68    0.95 -0.19 -0.68
                                                                                                    1.29 -1.51 -0.51
                                                                                                    0.28 -0.32 -0.20

and                  BONAVISTA CIL

                    FLEMISH CAP CIL
                                          -0.02   0.52 -0.39
                                                  0.90    0.94
                                                                 0.74   0.05 -0.03
                                                                 1.86 -0.08 -0.28
                                                                                      1.06   1.37
                                                                                      0.58 -0.52
                                                                                                    0.91
                                                                                                    1.78
                                                                                                           0.38
                                                                                                           1.47
                                                                                                                  0.64
                                                                                                                  0.94

Norwegian            S27 SURFACE S

                    S27 AVERAGED S
                                          0.50 -0.25 -0.69
                                          0.64    0.74 -0.58
                                                                 0.32
                                                                 0.12
                                                                        1.09   0.48
                                                                        1.03 -0.54
                                                                                      0.84 -0.33 -0.05     0.77
                                                                                      1.63 -0.43 -1.08 -0.45 -0.14
                                                                                                                  0.13


regions.           SEAL ISLAND AVG S      1.05
                                          1.39
                                                  1.05 -0.06
                                                  0.17    0.04
                                                                 0.60 -0.12
                                                                 0.53
                                                                               0.92
                                                                        1.63 -0.08
                                                                                      0.60
                                                                                      1.63
                                                                                             0.66 -0.77
                                                                                             2.24
                                                                                                           0.14
                                                                                                    0.65 -0.08
                                                                                                                  0.47
                                                                                                                  0.53
                    BONAVISTA AVG S

                   FLEMISH CAP AVG S              -0.83   0.15   0.34   1.02   0.44   1.61   1.71 -0.73    0.83   0.34
                                          2.26 19.63 12.91 14.66        7.86   7.53 10.10 -1.98 17.66      2.09 15.77
STANDARIZED ANOMALIES (SD)   50                                                               40
                             40
                                                                   NORWAY                     30
                             30
                                                                                              20
                             20
                             10                                                               10

                              0                                                               0
                             -10
                                                                                              -10
                             -20                                       CANADA
                                                                                              -20
                             -30
                             -40                                                              -30
                                1970   1975   1980   1985   1990     1995   2000   2005   2010

                             These standardized anomalies also show change from
                             out of phase prior to the mid-1990s and in phase since
                             then.
       NORTH ATLANTIC WINTER SLP FIELDS
        MEAN             ANOMALY

                                          HISTORICAL
                                          PATTERN- COLD
1991
                                          IN WEST WARM
                                          IN EAST



                                          EASTWARD
                                          DISPLACEMENT
2000




                                          WESTWARD
2003                                      DISPLACEMENT
              MENU
(Marine Ecosystem Comparisons of
  Norway and the United States)




                          NOAA Fisheries
                MENU
• Workshop Funded by NRC
• Held outside Bergen in March 2007
• Brought data to the table
•Divided into 2 groups: (1) response to
 recent changes and (2) structure and
 function of ecosystem.
•Five papers have been accepted for
 publication in PiO.
Russia


                                                          Alaska
                                                                                                Greenland
                                                                                                                    Menu
                       Eastern
                                                                                                   Barents
                                                                                                   Sea
                                                                                                                    Regions
                        Bering Sea                                                            (NOR/BAR)
                          (EBS)
                                                      Gulf of Alaska                  Norwegian
                                                      (GOA)                              Sea

                           1,500,000


                           1,250,000
   area (sq km)




                           1,000,000


                            750,000
                                                   Area                              Canada
                            500,000


                            250,000


                                  0
                                       EBS   GOA    GOM     GB     NOR   BAR                  GOM
                                 85
                                                                                               GB
                                 75
                                             Latitude                          USA
    latitude (degrees N)




                                 65                                                                 Gulf of Maine
                                 55
                                                                                                    / Georges
                                 45
                                                                                                    Bank
                                                                                                    (GOM/GB)
                                 35
                                       EBS   GOA    GOM     GB     NOR   BAR
               Mean
            Circulation




                          Strong Tidal
Highly
                          Currents and
Advective
                          Mixing in
Systems
                          subregions
Monthly mean
 sea-surface
temperature
  anomalies
 1900-2006
Correlations between annual heat
  fluxes and SST temperatures

Pacific Ecosystems: Significant correlations, 25-
30% of SST variance accounted for.

Atlantic Ecosystems: Weak and non-significant
correlations.
Suggests that warming due to advection in the
Atlantic while in Pacific air-sea fluxes play a
significant role.
                    Gulf of
                    Alaska            Salinity
                              In GoA surface freshening
                              due to local runoff



In GoM freshening due to
advection from the North            Gulf of
(Arctic?)                           Maine


     Barents
     Sea

                              In Barents Sea increasing
                              salinity due to higher salinity
                              in Atlantic Water.
           SeaWiFS climatology – Chl. a (Apr-Jun)
   Bering Sea / Gulf of Alaska                                        Norwegian Sea / Barents Sea




                                                                                     Total annual net PP
                                                                                     1998-2006 average (± 2 SD)
                                                                      600


                                     Primary production (gC m-2 y-1
        Gulf of Maine /                                               500

         Georges Bank                                                 400

                                                                      300

                                                                      200

                                                                      100

                                                                        0
                                                                            Bering        GOA    GOM / GB Norwegian   Barents

Mueter et al., in press          Source: http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi/level3.pl
                                  Productivity increases with nitrate
                                    content of deep source waters

                                        Approximate range
                                                                                                          Nitrate in source waters and
Nitrate concentration (µM)




                                                                                                        total annual primary production
                             40




                                                                                             600




                                                                  Total annual PP (gC m-2)
                                                                                                                             GOM/GB
                                                                                             500
                             30




                                                                                             400

                                                                                             300
                             20




                                                                                             200
                             10




                                                                                             100
                                  EBS    GOA GOM/GB NOR     BAR
                                                                                              0
                                                                                                   0         10         20        30          40
                                                                                                       Approximate nitrate concentration of
                                                                                                            deep source water (µM)


Mueter et al., in press
     Effect of SST on primary production, 1998-2006

                                                           Gulf of Maine/

                          500
                                                           Georges Bank
                                                            (P < 0.001)

                                                       Gulf of Alaska
                          400


Total annual                                             (n.s.)
    net                             Bering Sea
                                    (P = 0.039)
  primary
                          300




 production
  (gC m-2)
                          200




                                                              Norwegian Sea
                                       Barents Sea              (n.s.)
                                        (P = 0.093)

                                2           4          6          8         10
Mueter et al., in press                         Annual mean SST (°C)
MENUII




         NOAA Fisheries
               MENUII
• With the success of MENU, NOAA and
  IMR administrators encouraged MENU
  participants to submit full proposals
• Decided that emphasis would be model
  comparisons and ecosystem indicators
• 4 types of models: ECOPATH,
 production models, biophysical models
 (3-D hydrodynamic models up to
 zooplankton) and system models
 (includes fish and fisheries (ATLANTIS)
                       ATLANTIS
Ecosystems are created in Atlantis three-dimensionally, using
linked polygons that represent major geographical features.
Information is added on local oceanography, chemistry and
biology such as currents, nutrients, plankton, invertebrates and
fish.

The model then simulates ecological processes such as:
consumption and production, waste production, migration,
Predation, habitat dependency, mortality.

The Atlantis framework used for management strategy evaluation
incorporates a range of sub-models for each major step in the
management cycle. They simulate the marine environment, the
behaviour of industry, fishery monitoring and assessment
processes, and management actions and implementation.
                MENUII
  • Same model different regions
  • Different models for same region
  • Determine what we learned from each
   of the models


A good forecaster (modeller) is not
smarter than everyone else, he merely
has his ignorance better organised.
-Anonymous
              MENUII
•Norwegian component funded by RCN
 (2009-2011)
•US component submitted to CAMEO but
 not funded in first round. Hoping to
 obtain funds to carry out work from
 other sources.
Prediction is difficult, especially if it
involves the future.
                         Nils Bohr

Prediction is easy, getting it right is
the difficult part!
Prediction is easy, getting it right is
the difficult part!

What does ”right” imply?
-Some quantifiable measure of how
well the model fits the observations

-For future projections where we won’t
have observations need some
quantifiable measure of the uncertainty.
Observationalists and Modellers need to
work closer together

- Modeller’s to help determine what, where
   and how often observationalists should
   measure.
- Observationalists should provide more
  feedback on model results (requires available
  model results, positive criticisms)
- All motherhood statements but not generally
  done
              Some Problems
• For data comparisons, the data or datasets
should be similar. Not always possible.
•Forcing is based on large model and data based
datasets (e.g. NCEP) that usually have some
problems
• When using different models there is the
difficulty of knowing if one is comparing
ecosystems or models
            Concluding Remarks
• Comparative studies are a useful way to gain
insights into marine ecosystems
• They often lead to shifts in our thinking about
what is important and what is not.
• Bring comparative datasets to the table
•For models need to develop new and better
measures of uncertainty
• Need to make sure that observationalists and
modelers do not work independently.
Thank You!
        SST Anomalies in the
        North Atlantic during
             1990-1994
           HISTORICAL
         PATTERN- COLD IN
        WEST WARM IN EAST


NOAA Optimum Interpolation
SST, NOAA-CIRES Climate
Diagnostics Center

        SST Anomalies in the
        North Atlantic during
               2004
            BROAD-SCALE
             WARMING
Maximum SST 1997-2006
Bering Sea
              Sea-Ice Cover
               Anomalies




Barents Sea
       Zooplankton anomalies: Evidence of
        top-down and bottom-up control
  Bering Sea                                                                1.5
                                                                                          Barents Sea




                                                       Normalized anomaly
                                                                             1

                                                                            0.5




                                                           (Biomass )
                                                                             0

                                                                       -0.5

                                                                             -1
                                                                            0.4
                                                                                      Norwegian Sea
                                                                             0
                                                                       -0.4
                                                                            0.15
                                                                                                                r = 0.60




                                                       Normalized anomaly
                                                                             0.1
                                                                                                               P = 0.002
                                                                            0.05




                                                          (Biovolume)
                                                                              0

                                                                       -0.05

                                                                            -0.1                                                     Gulf of Maine /
                                                                       -0.15                                                         Georges Bank
                                                                            -0.2
                          Napp & Shiga (unpublished)
                                                                                   1977
                                                                                          1979
                                                                                                 1981
                                                                                                        1983
                                                                                                                1985
                                                                                                                       1987
                                                                                                                              1989
                                                                                                                                     1991
                                                                                                                                            1993
                                                                                                                                                   1995
                                                                                                                                                          1997
                                                                                                                                                                 1999
                                                                                                                                                                        2001
                                                                                                                                                                               2003
                                                                                                                                                                                      2005
                                                                                                                Based on Valdés et al. (2006)
Mueter et al., in press
                                     Fish: SST & cod recruitment
                                        Bering Sea
                                            (Pacific cod)
                                                                   1977-2005 only!
   Log(Recruitment) anomaly



                                                                                            Barents Sea
                              1




                                                                                             (Atlantic cod)
                              0
                              -2




                                     -1.0        0.0         1.0
                                        Gulf of Alaska
                                             (Pacific cod)                Georges Bank
                              1.5




                                                                           (Atlantic cod)
                              0.0
                              -1.5




                                   -1.0 -0.5       0.0       0.5
                                                                                            Georges Bank and Barents
                                                                    SST anomaly             Sea figures from:
                                                                                            Planque & Frédou (1999)
Mueter et al., in press

				
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posted:10/1/2012
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