N3 N4meeting

Document Sample
N3 N4meeting Powered By Docstoc
					Mapping rainwater management
 strategies at landscape scale
      Nile 3 on targeting and scaling out
               Overview

• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with
  illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research
                                2
       Targeting and scaling out tool

       Objective
•   Feasibility maps that includes bio-physical and
    socio-economic criteria
•   Landscape approach to rainwater management
    modeling




                                                         3
    intro   concept      framework    use    up-coming
                 Overview

• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with
  illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research
                                4
                         Some definitions

•       Rainwater management practice = farmers’
        choice to improve water retention or water
        productivity
    •       Soil and water conservation (bunds, …)
    •       Water harvesting
    •       Tree (agro-forestry)
    •       Livestock and grassland management
    •       Crops and fertility management

•       Intervention = “external actor” to enable a
        practice change
                                                           5
    intro      concept      framework    use   up-coming
   Landscape approach to water




intro   concept   framework   use   up-coming
   Landscape approach to water

                  Highland : infiltration ↑



                   Midlands : SWC ↑


                             Lowlands : efficiency ↑




intro   concept         framework    use      up-coming
           Rainwater management strategy

Zone           Cropland                    Grassland        Degraded
Uplands        Increase infiltration
               Orchards, multi-purpose
               trees
                                           Increase the
Midlands       Increase SWC
                                           quantity and     Rehabilitated
               Terraces, bunds
                                           quality fodder   degraded land
Lowlands       More efficient use water
                                           for livestock    Gully
               River diversion, wells
                                           Grassland        rehabilitation
                                           management
Independent Increase water in dry
            season
            Water harvesting

                                                                        8
           intro   concept         framework      use       up-coming
                 Overview

• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with
  illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research
                                9
                Modeling framework
        Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic
           and institutional drivers for each individual practice
                       (diversion, terraces, trees,…)

          Transformation into spatially explicit variables and
                        threshold definitions

        Mapping RMS at landscape scale
              Feasibility       Feasibility         Feasibility
                 map               map                 map
              practice A        practice B          practice C



                  Rainwater management strategy map
                                                                   10
intro      concept          framework         use      up-coming
                            Modeling framework
                    Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic
Database               and institutional drivers for each individual practice
of 80                              (diversion, terraces, trees,…)
practices
                      Transformation into spatially explicit variables and
                                    threshold definitions

                    Mapping RMS at landscape scale
                          Feasibility       Feasibility         Feasibility
                             map               map                 map
                          practice A        practice B          practice C



                              Rainwater management strategy map
                                                                               11
            intro      concept          framework         use      up-coming
                Modeling framework
        Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic
           and institutional drivers for each individual practice
                       (diversion, terraces, trees,…)

          Transformation into spatially explicit variables and
                        threshold definitions

        Mapping RMS at landscape scale
              Feasibility       Feasibility         Feasibility
                 map               map                 map
              practice A        practice B          practice C



                  Rainwater management strategy map
                                                                   12
intro      concept          framework         use      up-coming
                                            Suitability criteria
                     Practice                      Biophysical criteria       Expected socio-economic and
                                                                                  institutional criteria
                       Apple tree           Minimum temperature below 10c    Distance to market
orchards
Upland :




                                            Luvisol, nitisol, leptosol       Land holding size
                                            Sub-humid zone
                       Mango trees          Nitisol                          Distance to market
                                            Sub-humid zone                   Land holding size
                       Bench terracing      Semi-arid and sub-humid zones*   Household size, Hired labor,
                                            soils drainage ≠ poor            Access to advice, Land
Midland : terraces




                                            Slope between 12-58%             fragmentation, Agricultural
                                                                             dependency, Rented land

                       Hillside terracing   Arid and semi-arid               household size, Land holding size,
                                            slope 10- 50%                    Hired labor, Access to advice ,
                                                                             Land fragmentation, Agricultural
                                                                             dependency, Rented land
                       River diversion      2.5km around perennial river     Access to capital, Household size
Lowland




                                            soil texture = fine              Access to advise, Access to market


                                                                                                            13
                Modeling framework
        Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic
           and institutional drivers for each individual practice
                       (diversion, terraces, trees,…)

          Transformation into spatially explicit variables and
                        threshold definitions

        Mapping RMS at landscape scale
              Feasibility       Feasibility         Feasibility
                 map               map                 map
              practice A        practice B          practice C



                  Rainwater management strategy map
                                                                   14
intro      concept          framework         use      up-coming
    Getting single feasibilty maps
Bio-physical suitability                      Willingness to adopt




                           Feasibility map




intro    concept           framework         use     up-coming
        Biophysical suitability maps
                                    equal weight
                                    aggregation




                     Apple tree     Minimum
                                    temperature below
                                    10c
                                    Luvisol, nitisol,
                                    leptosol
                                    Rainfall >1400 mm

                                                        16
intro   concept   framework       use     up-coming
    Adoption maps :
Small area estimation technique




                                  17
  Adoption rule for orchard
Variable at farm level   Orchards   Variable at woreda
                                    level
household density        0.0184     Population density
                         (0.029)
Landholding              0.2062     Average landholding
                         (0.001)
Average plot size        -1.7489    Average plot size
                         (0.000)
Red soil                 0.4232     Nitisol
                         (0.020)
Access to advise         0.2378     Percent of HH with
                         (0.050)    access to advise
Access to credit         -0.2450    Percent of farmers with
                         (0.038)    access to credit
Constant                 -1.1780    Constant
                         (0.000)
Pseudo R-squared         0.07
                                                          18
      Adoption rule for SWC
Variable at farm level   Soil and water   Variable at woreda
                         conservation     level
Landholding              -0.3772          Average landholding
                         (0.000)
Landholding squared      0.0324
                         (0.020)
Clay soil                -0.3268          Vertisols
                         (0.027)
Access to advise         0.4188           Percent of HH with
                         (0.000)          access to advise
Off farm activity        0.2843           Agricultural
                         (0.011)          dependency
Hired labor              0.5060           percent of HH with
                         (0.000)          hired labor
Constant                 0.6151           Constant
                         0.004
                                                                19
  Adoption rule for diversion
Variable at farm level   River diversion   Variable at woreda
                                           level
household density        0.0092            Population density
                         (0.020)
Landholding           1.2426               Average landholding
                      (0.000)
Landholding squared -0.1488
                      (0.000)
Average plot size     -3.6047              Average plot size
                      (0.001)
Hired labor           0.8920               percent of HH with
                      (0.000)              hired labor
Time to output market 0.9975               Time to market
                      (0.005)
Time to output market -0.1962
squared               (0.043)
Constant              -3.2910              Constant
                      (0.000)
                                                                 20
    Willingness of adoption maps




                                                21
intro   concept   framework   use   up-coming
                  Feasibility maps




                                                   22
intro   concept      framework   use   up-coming
                Modeling framework
        Identification of bio-physical conditions, socio-economic
           and institutional drivers for each individual practice
                       (diversion, terraces, trees,…)

          Transformation into spatially explicit variables and
                        threshold definitions

        Mapping RMS at landscape scale
               Feasibilty       Feasibilty         Feasibilty
                  map              map                map
               practice A       practice B         practice C



                Rainwater management strategy map
                                                                 23
intro      concept          framework        use     up-coming
     Strategy quantification
    Objective                 Example quantification
1   Identify landscapes in    At least 10% of the area is suitable for
    which sufficient area     SWC and terracing and at least 2% of
    are suitable in bio-      the area is suitable for river diversion
    physical terms.
2   Identify landscapes       The minimum adoption on suitable area
    where people are likely   of any of the three practices is bigger
    to adopt the strategy     than 0

3   Identify landscape       Combination of the conditions of
    where sufficient area is quantification 1 and quantification 2
    feasible both in bio-
    physical and socio-
    economic terms.

                                                                     24
    Aggregation into strategies at
         landscape scale




zonal overlay with a landscape layer
Bio-physical map, willingness of adoption map, feasibility map
                                                            25
intro   concept         framework       use     up-coming
                 Overview

• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with
  illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research
                                26
                      Using the maps

•   High uncertainty
•   Difficulty to validate the maps
•   Entry point to start a discussion with
    community

•   Towards an open source GIS tool for
    policy makers, research centers, NGO,
    extension service
                                                       27
    intro   concept      framework   use   up-coming
                 Overview

• Introduction
• Concepts used (definitions)
• Modeling framework with
  illustration
• Using the maps
• Up-coming research
                                28
                   Up-coming research

•       Map validation in 4 new watersheds
    •       Using the “happy strategy game”
    •       Farm household survey (600 farmers)
•       Impact assessment
    •       on hydrology, ecosystem services, livelihoods
•       Explorative scenarios




                                                            29
    intro      concept      framework    use    up-coming
30
31
32
33
34
Practice            Biophysical criteria         Expected socio-economic
                                                 and institutional criteria
Apple tree          Minimum temperature          Distance to market
                    below 15c                    Land holding size
                    Luvisol, nitisol, leptosol
                    Rainfall >1400 mm
                    Crop land
Mango trees         Nitisol                      Distance to market
                    Rainfall > 1400 mm           Land holding size
                    Crop land
Multipurpose tree   Rainfall 500-2000     Age, Household size
Sesbania sesban     Crop land, medium and Land holding size
                    high degradation      Rented land
                                          Land fragmentation
                                          Livestock intensity
Bench terracing     Rainfall < 1400mm            Household size
                    soils drainage ≠ poor        Hired labor
                    Slope between 12-58%         Access to advice
                    Crop land                    Land fragmentation
                                                 Agricultural dependency
                                                                         35
                                                 Rented land
Practice             Biophysical criteria         Expected socio-economic
                                                  and institutional criteria
Hillside terracing   Rainfall < 900mm             household size
                     slope 10- 50%                Land holding size
                     Crop land                    Hired labor
                                                  Access to advice
                                                  Land fragmentation
                                                  Agricultural dependency
                                                  Rented land
Soil bund            rainfall < 1400 mm           household size
                     slope 3-15% on               Land holding size
                     rainfall > 1400mm if         Hired labor
                     graded                       Access to advice
                     soil ≠ leptosol              Land fragmentation
                     soil drainage ≠ poor         Agricultural dependency
                     ≠ degraded land              Rented land
Stone bund           slope 5-35%                  household size
                     rainfall < 1400 mm           Land holding size
                     and rainfall >1400 if soil   Hired labor
                     = nitisol and if drainage    Access to advice
                     = good (MoRAD) OR            Land fragmentation
                     soil type = leptsol          Agricultural dependency 36
                     soil texture = medium        Rented land
Practice          Biophysical criteria     Expected socio-economic
                                           and institutional criteria
Fanya-juu         rainfall > 900mm         Agricultural dependency
                  rainfall <900mm if       Livestock intensity
                  elevation >1500          Access to credit
                  slope 3-15%              Access to extension service
                  soil = nitisol           Landholding per person
                                           Education
                                           Household size

River diversion   2.5km around perennial Access to capital
                  river                  Household size
                  soil texture = fine    Access to advise
                                         Access to market
Well              very shallow + shallow   Access to market
                  aquifers                 Access to credit
                  slope < 35%              Household size
                  soil ≠ leptosol          Landholding size
                  Normalized
                  topographic index
                  between 0.8-1
                                                                   37
Practice           Biophysical criteria   Expected socio-economic
                                          and institutional criteria
Gullies            Normalized             Informal institution map?
                   topographic index
                   between 0.8-1
Area exclosure     Grassland              Informal institution map?

Water harvesting   No forest              Access to market
                                          Access to credit
                                          Household size
                                          Landholding size




                                                                      38

				
DOCUMENT INFO
Shared By:
Categories:
Tags:
Stats:
views:0
posted:10/1/2012
language:English
pages:38