AQassim Toronto Jan2012 AnselmoD

							Transfer to Ops: Requirements at the
  Canadian Meteorological Centre
       Data Assimilation Fusion Meeting
      Downsview       January 16-17, 2012

                     David Anselmo
        Air Quality Modelling Applications Section
            Meteorological Service of Canada
                    Montréal, Québec
               David.Anselmo@ec.gc.ca
Outline
• Requirements for an operational implementation
   – Make the case (identify the need)
   – Data readiness (observations)
       ▪ Top 4
   – System readiness
• Common challenges to ops transfers
• Advantages to going operational




                              Page 2
Identify Need from Program Perspective
• What? ... products are to be generated in ops
• Who? ... are (potential) clients of the products
   – SPCs/forecasters, Weatheroffice/general public, other
     operational systems
• Why? …
   – Identify the benefits of the products
   – Does it have to be operational to realize full benefit?
   – What is the importance of near real-time?
• How/Where? …
       will users access the products
   – Is development necessary?
   – Are other groups involved?
                                Page 3
Data Readiness – Top 4
• Data availability
   – What is source of data?
       ▪   Are transfers to CMC already established? Can they be?
       ▪   Would data transfer make use of existing links to CMC?
       ▪   What are protocols for data transfer from provider?
       ▪   Are they reasonable/acceptable to CMC?
            – Bandwidth, security concerns
   – What is format of data?
       ▪ Is it new to CMC operational systems? Is there precedence?
       ▪ Is software in place to decode this format?
   – What are long term prospects
     wrt data availability?
       ▪ Longevity, continuity of observing
         programs
       ▪ Dependence on other countries
         (changing budgets, priorities)
                                     Page 4
Data Readiness – Top 4
• Data reliability
   – Is upstream data processing supported by provider?
       ▪ Is it supported 24/7?
   – How are unexpected outages or routine downtimes addressed?
   – What is normal frequency and duration of outages & downtimes?
   – What is overall percentage of data availability?
       ▪ Is it acceptable for operational system?
       ▪ Is it acceptable for clients (assuming a dependency develops)?




                                 Page 5
Data Readiness – Top 4
• Data quality
   – What is usability of data?
   – What quality measures are in place at source?
       ▪ Quality assured data
       ▪ Quality controlled data
   – Does data arrive with pre-applied flags?
   – What additional measures must be applied before data can be
     used operationally?
       ▪ Must assess negative impact on downstream users from poor
         quality data




                                   Page 6
Data Readiness – Top 4
• Data timeliness
  – “Latency, latency, latency.”
 Operational                 Near Real-Time
  – For many apps, if data does not arrive in
    time, it is essentially useless
  – Define what is “late” for the intended
    application
       ▪ Concept of a cut-off
       ▪ For some programs T+9h, for others T+30min
   – Is the entire transmission system “operationally capable”?
       ▪ Though, it need not be operational!! (Ex. satellite)




                                    Page 7
                                                                   *Image courtesy CMDA/CMC


      Assimilation cycles at the CMC
T+ 1:50
at 7:50Z                           Cut-offs                                Global cycle

 R106          R200                                                        Regional cycle
                                              T+9 at 09Z
                      T+2:30 at 02:30Z          G200
                          G100
T+ 2:05                                                                                   T+ 2:05
at 14:05Z                                                                                 at 14:05Z
 R100           R218          G218 T+6 at 00Z             T+6 à 12Z G206        R206        R112


                                                                      G112
                                                G212           T+2:30 at 14:30Z           T+ 1:50
           Analysis is transmitted                                                        at 19:50Z
                                          T+8:15 at 20:15Z
           Trial Field is generated
                                                                                R212        R118
           Analysis is generated
                                                 Page 8
System Readiness
• Applies to applicant system as well as host environment
• CPOP considerations (Comité des passes opérationelles et
  parallèls)
    – Advance planning
        ▪ Resource allocations (human & computer)
        ▪ Balance/coordination with other implementation requests
        ▪ Initial proposal 12-18 months in advance
    – Coordination with existing operational components
        ▪ Impacts & dependencies between upstream & downstream systems
               –   Ex. Global model, Regional model, AQ model, UMOS, OA, etc
        ▪ Regional SPCs (forecast scheds), Weatheroffice, etc
• Commonality of working environment (tools)
    – Research  Development  Operations
    – To reduce AMAP duplication of work; streamline implementations
    – Ex. Job sequencer (OCM/Maestro)
                                          Page 9
System Readiness
• System diagnostics
   – Monitoring of the reliability, quality, timeliness of input
   – Performance measures
       ▪ Routine verification of quality of final products




                                   Page 10
System Readiness
• Documentation
   – Creation of standards for evaluation and future upgrades
       ▪ What are conditions for implementations?
          –   Define procedures for future parallel runs (seasons, length of time, etc.)
          –   Verification scores & thresholds
          –   Against observations/analyses
          –   Subjective evaluations by A&P
       ▪ Identify dependant systems that must undergo impact assessments
         with every implementation
   – Support documentation
       ▪ Assist 24/7 support teams (NetOps, CMOI, A&P)
       ▪ Problem scenarios & remedy procedures
       ▪ Contingencies for data or system outages
   – GENOT, Technical note, CMC product guide

                                     Page 11
System Readiness
• Outreach
   – Presentation to CMC building prior to formal CPOP proposal
       ▪ Present in detail the science and implementation plans
       ▪ Present future directions
       ▪ 50 minutes
   – Formal CPOP proposal for parallel run
       ▪ Brief summary of science and implementation plan
       ▪ 15-20 minutes
       ▪ Voted on by CPOP members




                                 Page 12
Common Challenges to Ops Transfers
• Each implementation = additional cost
    – Competition for limited resources
• The first implementation is resource intensive
    – Often requires significant adaptation to conform to operational
      expectations
        ▪ New data types & formats & paradigms
    – Tests communication links between R, D, and O
• Maturity or lack thereof of component(s)
    – Observation infrastructure, robustness of methodology, etc.
• Increased complexity for assimilation systems
    – Marriage of 3 components: observations, model, methodology
• Adaptation to continual evolution of…
    – Computing environment
    – Upstream/downstream systems
                                   Page 13
Advantages to Ops Status
• Demonstrates important value/purpose of system
• Provides continuous monitoring to identify issues with
  data
   – Quality, timeliness, etc.
   – In turn, opportunities to improve data stream (feedback to data
     providers)
• Improves product availability & visibility
• Can be supportive to other operational systems
   – Ex. sensitivity of GEM-MACH has proven an effective means of
     debugging dynamics & physics libraries shared by other models




                               Page 14
        Thanks!
             David Anselmo
Air Quality Modelling Applications Section
    Meteorological Service of Canada
            Montréal, Québec
       David.Anselmo@ec.gc.ca




                     Page 15
Extras



   Page 16
Operational Observation Data
          Streams




            Page 17
Surface Obs Data Transfer – Canada
• Source networks for surface data:
   – Metro Vancouver (DRDAS)
   – BC MoE (DRDAS)
   – Alberta Env (9 air sheds, CASA server)
   – Saskatchewan Env (DRDAS)
   – Manitoba Conservation (moving to DRDAS)
   – Ontario MoE (DRDAS)
   – Ville de Montréal & Québec MDDEP (via Québec Region)
   – New Brunswick, PEI, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland (via Atlantic
     Region)
   – CAPMoN
• Hourly observations
• Species: O3, PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, H2S, TRS, CO, NO
   Stns:   175, 165,     35,     135,    70,   5,   20,   30, 75
                               Page 18
Surface Obs Data Transfer – Canada
• Format: AIRNow ‘OBS’ ASCII
• Processed in near real-time at 40 mins past hour
• Used to feed:
   –   AQHI national forecast program
   –   UMOS
   –   Model verification
   –   Objective analysis system for surface pollutants




                                 Page 19
AQHI availability – Pacific Region
• Mean 6-month availability Nov 2010: 78%
                                            DRDAS
• Mean 6-month availability Jan 2012: ??




                              Page 20
AQHI availability – Prairie Region
• Mean 6-month availability Nov 2010: 88%
• Mean 6-month availability Jan 2012: ??




                              Page 21
AQHI availability – Ontario Region
• Mean 6-month availability Nov 2010: 97%
• Mean 6-month availability Jan 2012: ??




                              Page 22
AQHI availability – Quebec Region
• Mean 6-month availability Nov 2010: 93%
• Mean 6-month availability Jan 2012: ??




                              Page 23
AQHI availability – Atlantic Region
• Mean 6-month availability Nov 2010: 84%
• Mean 6-month availability Jan 2012: ??




                              Page 24
Surface Obs Data Transfer – US
• US obs retrieved from AIRNow Gateway
    – www.airnowgateway.org
    – Data in ‘AQCSV’ ASCII format
    – Improvement over previous ‘OBS’ format
• Hourly observations
• Species:
    – Primarily O3 and PM2.5
    – Includes other pollutants and meteorology for select stations
• Availability of data in near real-time:
    – ~80% after 1 hour
    – ~95% after 2 hours
• Used to feed:
    – Model verification
    – Objective analysis system for surface pollutants
                                   Page 25