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Examples of quasi operational products Short Range Numerical

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Examples of quasi operational products Short Range Numerical Powered By Docstoc
					Project of a Regional Multi-Model
Ensemble Prediction System in Europe

• 20 member Poor Man’s Ensemble
• ALADIN, HIRLAM, COSMO, UKMO consortia
• Quasi-operational short-range
  ensemble forecasts on a 7 km grid
• Ensemble mean and probability forecasts
• Domain size: 35°–70°N, 30°W–30°E
• 4 runs per day
• Running at German Weather Service (DWD)
• Meteorological parameters:

  Accumulated total precipitation
  Accumulated total snow
  Maximum 10 m wind speed
  Maximum 10 m wind gust speed
  Maximum/Minimum 2 m temperature




 Michael Denhard Deutscher Wetterdienst
 Sebastian Trepte Deutscher Wetterdienst
 Jean Quiby       MeteoSchweiz

                                 2nd Workshop on Short Range EPS 7th–8th April 2005, Bologna
                                   20 contributing weather forecast models

Meteorological        Regional        Coupling        Resolution      Forecast Period   Time Interval Main Runs
Service                Model           Model            (km)                (h)             (h)       (UTC)
Belgium                ALADIN          ARPEGE              15                 +60            1       0, 12
France                 ALADIN          ARPEGE              11                 +48            3       0, 12
Austria             ALADIN-AUSTRIA     ARPEGE              9.6                +48            1       0, 12
Croatia              ALADIN-LACE       ARPEGE               9                 +48            3       0, 12
Czech. Repub.        ALADIN-LACE       ARPEGE               9                 +48            3       0, 12
Hungary              ALADIN-LACE       ARPEGE              11                 +48            1       0, 12
Slovakia             ALADIN-LACE       ARPEGE              11                 +48            3       0, 12
Slovenia             ALADIN-LACE       ARPEGE              9.4                +48            3       0, 12
Denmark                HIRLAM          ECMWF               16                 +60            1       0, 6, 12, 18
Finland                HIRLAM          ECMWF               22                 +54            1       0, 6, 12, 18
Spain                  HIRLAM          ECMWF               22                 +24            1       0, 6, 12, 18
Netherlands            HIRLAM          ECMWF               22                 +48            1       0, 6, 12, 18
Ireland                HIRLAM          ECMWF               16                 +48            3       0, 6, 12, 18
Norway I               HIRLAM          ECMWF               11                 +30            1       0, 12
Norway II              HIRLAM          ECMWF               22                 +30            1       0, 12
Germany                  LM              GME                7                 +48            1       0, 12, 18
Switzerland             aLMo           ECMWF                7                 +72            1       0, 12
Italy                   EuroLM         EuroHRM              7                 +60            3       0
United Kingdom I      UKMO-LAM         UM global           12                 +48            3       0, 6, 12, 18
United Kingdom II      UKMO-EU         UM global           12                 +48            3       0, 6, 12, 18


                                          1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Work flow I

                                     forecast data


                                   DWD FTP server


                                  internal numbering


                             storage in DWD data base


                             retrieve from DWD data base

                                                                      take out of outermost grid points

                          calculation of ensemble products


                     GRIB files                          plot files
    DWD FTP server                                                         SRNWP-PEPS Internet site

                         1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Work flow II

Transformation to an unique
ensemble grid with a grid                                70 N
spacing of 0.0625° (~7 km)
covering Europe and the
North Atlantic Ocean
961  561 grid points

Calculation separately for
each ensemble grid point:                   30 W                               30 E
the nearest model grid points
from all contributing models are
used

 Ensemble size depends on
  location

                                   35 N
Products:
  • Ensemble mean
  • Probability forecast


                                   1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Model Consortia

Areas having maximum number of ensemble members for each consortium


                ALADIN                                                  HIRLAM




               8 models                                                 2  6 models


                            1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Model Consortia

Areas having maximum number of ensemble members for each consortium


               LM-COSMO                                                 UKMO




               3 models                                                 2 models


                            1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Special parameters

        Meteorological
                            Total snow   Wind gusts
        Service
        Belgium                  x             -
        France                   x             x
        Austria                  x             x
        Croatia                  x             -
                                                                     Wind gusts:
        Czech. Repub.            x             x
        Hungary                  x             x
                                                                     Ensemble composition leads
        Slovakia                 x             -
                                                                     to a considerably smaller
        Slovenia                 x             x
        Denmark                  -             -
                                                                     PEPS-domain for this parameter.
        Finland                  x             -
        Spain                    x             -
        Netherlands              x             -
        Ireland                  x             -
        Norway I                 x             -
        Norway II                x             -
        Germany                  x             x
        Switzerland              x             x
        Italy                    x             x
        United Kingdom I         x             -
        United Kingdom II        x             -


                              1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Maximum Ensemble Size

depends on main run and on meteorological parameter




          Maximum       Total            Total Wind            Wind gust     Temperature
          Ensemble Size precip.          snow speed            speed
          00 UTC            20           19       20           8             20
          06 UTC            7            6        7            -             7
          12 UTC            20           19       20           8             20
          18 UTC            8            7        8            1             8




                                 1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Ensemble Products

1. Ensemble mean. Forecast periods +06...+30h (24 hours), +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours)
       • Total precipitation (accumulation), sum of convective and large scale precipitation
       • Total snow (accumulation) ), sum of convective and large scale snow
       • Maximum 10 m wind speed
       • Maximum 10 m wind gust speed
       • 2 m minimum/maximum temperature

2. Probabilistic products. Forecast period +06...+30h (24 hours)
       • Probabilities of total precipitation           Thresholds:   > 20, > 50, > 100 mm             (COSMO-LEPS)
       • Probabilities of total snow                    Thresholds:   > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm          (COSMO-LEPS)
       • Probabilities of maximum wind speed            Thresholds:   > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s
       • Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed       Thresholds:   > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s (COSMO-LEPS +)

3. Probabilistic products. Forecast periods +06...+18h and +18...+30h (12 hours)
       • Probabilities of total precipitation           Thresholds:   > 25, > 40, > 70 mm
       • Probabilities of total snow                    Thresholds:   > 1, > 5, > 10, > 20 cm
       • Probabilities of maximum wind speed            Thresholds:   > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25 m/s
       • Probabilities of maximum wind gust speed       Thresholds:   > 10, > 15, > 20, > 25, > 33 m/s


4. Ensemble size per grid point (at least two members)


                                         1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
GRIB-Code I                                                         Table 2, Edition 01, Version-No. 204 (DWD)

 Code       Abbreviation
 No.         of Parameter           Short of Parameter            Parameter Name                                                     Unit of Parameter
 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

   131       RR20                   Prob RR 20mm                  probability of total precipitation > 20 mm                                    %
   132       RR50                   Prob RR 50mm                  probability of total precipitation > 50 mm                                    %
   133       RR100                  Prob RR 100mm                 probability of total precipitation > 100 mm                                   %
   134       RR25                   Prob RR 25mm                  probability of total precipitation > 25 mm                                    %
   135       RR40                   Prob RR 40mm                  probability of total precipitation > 40 mm                                    %
   136       RR70                   Prob RR 70mm                  probability of total precipitation > 70 mm                                    %
   141       FF10                   Prob FF 10m/s                 probability of maximum wind speed > 10 m/s                                    %
   142       FF15                   Prob FF 15m/s                 probability of maximum wind speed > 15 m/s                                    %
   143       FF20                   Prob FF 20m/s                 probability of maximum wind speed > 20 m/s                                    %
   144       FF25                   Prob FF 25m/s                 probability of maximum wind speed > 25 m/s                                    %
   151       SNOW1                  Prob SNOW 1cm                  probability of accumulated snow > 1 cm                                       %
   152       SNOW5                  Prob SNOW 5cm                  probability of accumulated snow > 5 cm                                       %
   153       SNOW10                 Prob SNOW 20cm                 probability of accumulated snow > 10 cm                                      %
   154       SNOW20                 Prob SNOW 20cm                 probability of accumulated snow > 20 cm                                      %
   161      GUST10                  Prob GUST 10m/s               probability of maximum wind gust speed > 10 m/s                               %
   162      GUST15                  Prob GUST 15m/s               probability of maximum wind gust speed > 15 m/s                               %
   163      GUST20                  Prob GUST 20m/s               probability of maximum wind gust speed > 20 m/s                               %
   164      GUST25                  Prob GUST 25m/s               probability of maximum wind gust speed > 25 m/s                               %
   165      GUST33                  Prob GUST 33m/s               probability of maximum wind gust speed > 33 m/s                               %

                                                  1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
GRIB-Code II                                                          ECMWF local definitions



      GRIB section 1                             Ensemble              Probability
                                                 Mean                  Forecast
      ksec1(24)    Local def. required           1                     1
      ksec1(37)    Local GRIB use def. id        5                     5
      ksec1(38)    Class                         1                     1
      ksec1(39)    Type                          17                    16
      ksec1(40)    Stream                        1035                  1035
      ksec1(45)    Threshold indicator           0                     2
      ksec1(47)    Upper threshold value         –                     value


   - Usage of ECMWF local extensions requires the change of centre identification number to 98 -

   More details: http://www.ecmwf.int




                                1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Cut-off times

Forecast data receipt at DWD FTP server




                        Ensemble product              cut-off time

                        00 UTC                        05.30 UTC

                        06 UTC                        11.30 UTC

                        12 UTC                        17.30 UTC

                        18 UTC                        23.30 UTC




                                 1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
‘Heavy precipitation’ at model boundaries

                                         Total precipitation [mm/12h]



4-member-ensemble

DK, GE, CH, ES




                         1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
‘Heavy precipitation’ at model boundaries



                           Total precipitation [mm/12h]




                       1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Reducing of model areas

Take out of outermost grid points


                                        UK (12 km): 10 grid points
                                        CH (7 km):        7 grid points
                                        GE (7 km):        7 grid points
                                        ES (22 km):      5 grid points




                                    1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Examples of quasi-operational products




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Examples of quasi-operational products




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Examples of quasi-operational products




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Examples of quasi-operational products




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Examples of quasi-operational products




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Examples of quasi-operational products




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Ensemble size of wind gust forecast




                        1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
SRNWP-PEPS Internet site


open for all users




                       1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
SRNWP-PEPS Internet site


link to
<forecasts>

closed user group




                       1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
SRNWP-PEPS Internet site


link to
<Forecasts 24h>




                       1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna
Member’s requests and discussion


• Meteorological parameters
• Thresholds
• Forecast periods
• Accumulation periods (precipitation, snow)
• Cut-off times
• Provision of products
• Internet presentation
• Enlargement of the ensemble




                                  1st SRNWP-PEPS Workshop 6th April Bologna

				
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