CS 310: Software Engineering by duRmY02X

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									  Chapter 12:
   Enhancing
Decision Making

    Dr. Andrew P. Ciganek, Ph.D.
        Business Value of Improved
             Decision Making
• Improving hundreds of thousands of “small”
  decisions adds up to large annual value
• Types of decisions
  – Unstructured: Decision maker must provide
    judgment, evaluation, and insight to solve problem
  – Structured: Repetitive and routine; involve definite
    procedure for handling so they do not have to be
    treated each time as new
  – Semistructured: Only part of problem has clear-cut
    answer provided by accepted procedure
          Decision Making and IS
• Senior managers
  – Make many unstructured decisions
     • e.g., Should we enter a new market?
• Middle managers
  – Make more structured decisions but these may
    include unstructured components
     • e.g., Why is the order fulfillment report showing a
       decline in Minneapolis?
• Operational managers, rank and file employees
  – Make more structured decisions
     • e.g., Does customer meet criteria for credit?
    Four Stages of Decision Making
• Intelligence
  – Discovering, identifying, and understanding the
    problems occurring in the organization
• Design
  – Identifying and exploring solutions to the problem
• Choice
  – Choosing among solution alternatives
• Implementation
  – Making chosen alternative work and continuing to
    monitor how well solution is working
    IS Can Only Assist in Some of the
        Roles Played by Managers
• Classical model of management
  – Five functions of managers
     • Planning, organizing, coordinating, deciding, and
       controlling
• More contemporary behavioral models
  – Actual manager behavior appears less systematic,
    more informal, less reflective, more reactive, and
    less well organized than in classical model
  – Mintzberg’s behavioral model of managers defines
    10 managerial roles falling into 3 categories
     Mintzberg’s Managerial Roles
• Interpersonal roles: Figurehead, Leader, Liaison
• Informational roles: Nerve center, Disseminator,
  Spokesperson
• Decisional roles: Entrepreneur, Disturbance
  handler, Resource allocator, Negotiator
      Why IT Doesn’t Always Produce
             Positive Results
• Information quality
  – High-quality decisions require high-quality info
• Management filters
  – Managers have selective attention and have variety
    of biases that reject information that does not
    conform to prior conceptions
• Organizational culture
  – Strong forces within organizations resist making
    decisions calling for major change
          High Velocity Automated
              Decision Making
• Possible with computer algorithms precisely
  defining steps for a highly structured decision
• Humans taken out of decision
   – e.g., High-speed computer trading programs
      • Trades executed in 30 milliseconds
      • Responsible for “Flash Crash” of 2010
            Business Intelligence
• Infrastructure for collecting, storing, analyzing data
  produced by business
   – Databases, data warehouses, data marts
• Business analytics
   – Tools and techniques for analyzing data
   – OLAP, statistics, models, data mining
      Examples of BI Applications
• Predictive analytics
  – Use patterns in data to predict future behavior
  – e.g., Credit card companies use predictive analytics
    to determine customers at risk for leaving
• Data visualization
  – Help users see patterns and relationships that would
    be difficult to see in text lists
• Geographic information systems (GIS)
  – Ties location-related data to maps
           EveryBlock – Chicago
• Narcotics (drug) reports for past 12 months
        Decision Support Systems
• Allow varied types of analysis
  – “What-if” analysis
  – Sensitivity analysis
  – Multidimensional analysis / OLAP
     • e. g., pivot tables
            Sensitivity Analysis
• “What happens to break-even point if sales price
  and cost to make each unit increase or decrease?”
Pivot Table
    What to Sell? Charge? Ask Data:
     ‘For’ and ‘Against’ Exercise
1. Read the article and the following statement.
2. Summarize the best evidence you can give FOR,
   or in support of, the statement.
3. Summarize the best evidence you can give
   AGAINST the statement.
4. Include only accurate evidence

•   To remain competitive, organizations must
    analyze sales patterns and create ‘pricing profiles’.
              Decision Support for
              Senior Management
• Help executives focus on important performance
  information
• Balanced scorecard method:
  – Measures outcomes on four dimensions:
     •   Financial
     •   Business process
     •   Customer
     •   Learning & growth
  – Key performance indicators (KPIs) measure each
    dimension
Balanced Scorecard Framework
     Group Decision-Support Systems
                 (GDSS)
• Interactive, computer-based systems that facilitate
  solving of unstructured problems by set of decision
  makers
• Used in conference rooms with special hardware
  and software for collecting, ranking, storing ideas
  and decisions
• Promote a collaborative atmosphere by
  guaranteeing contributors’ anonymity
• Support increased meeting sizes with increased
  productivity
UWM GDSS Meeting Room

								
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