Edwards Aquifer first prototype - PowerPoint - PowerPoint

							Rapid Prototyping Workshop




     Seven threatened and
   endangered species of the
       Edwards Aquifer
      Federally Listed Species
Seven endangered species :
•   Texas Blind Salamander
•   Fountain Darter
•   San Marcos Gambusia
•   Texas Wild-rice
•   Comal Springs Riffle Beetle
•   Comal Springs Dryopid Beetle
•   Peck's Cave Amphipod

One threatened species:
• San Marcos Salamander
Species to Address
  Texas wild-rice (TWR)
    (Zizania texana)
          Problem Statement
                  (in short)

• Develop an iterative process that will be
  used to determine jeopardy for the Texas
  wild rice (Zizania texana) in light of
  scientific uncertainty and political
  controversy surrounding water
  management of the Edwards Aquifer
• Jeopardy defined by change in probability
  in area of occupancy < threshold
                      Process
• Identify influencing factors
   – Broad, inclusive list
   – Narrowed to most influential
• Model the relationship between factors
   – Focus on upper reach
• Developed simple belief model
   – Possible states & conditional probability tables
• Explored alternatives with the model
   – Baseline
   – Alternatives
                                     The Model
                          Spring Flow (depth & velocity)
                          < 50               0                      Texas Wild-Rice
                          50 - 100           0                      Prototype 1
                          100 - 180        100                      Baseline
                          > 180              0


Invasive Plant Cover
High      0                       Floating Veg Amount             Recreation Use           Flood Damage
Med     100                       High       0                 High      0              High 20.0
Low       0                       Med        0                 Med     100              Med    50.0
                                  Low      100                 Low       0              Low    30.0

   Potential Habitat (m-sq)
  "none"      40.0                                                   % of Poten Habitat Occupied
  <1000       30.0                                                   <25            38.0
  1000-3500 20.0                                                     25-50          17.0
  3500-7500 10.0                                                     50-75          16.0
                                                                     75-100         29.0
                                 Area Occupancy 20 yr (m-sq)
                                "gone"        51.7
                                <1000         30.3
                                1000-3500     13.7
                                3500-7500     4.30
          Factors         Baseline         Alt. 1         Alt. 2
                <50
                50-100                              100
 Springflow
                100-180              100                           100
                >180
                High
  Invasive
   Plants       Medium               100
 (% Cover)
                Low                                 100            100
                High
Floating Veg.   Medium                                             100
                Low                  100            100
                High
Flood Damage Medium                                                100
                Low                  100            100
                High
 Recreation     Medium                                             100
                Low                  100            100
                                  Alternative 2
                                                                          Texas Wildrice
                          Spring Flow (depth & velocity)
                                                                          Prototype 1
                          < 50               0                            Alternative 2
                          50 - 100           0
                          100 - 180        100
                          > 180              0


Invasive Plant Cover
High      0                       Floating Veg Amount             Recreation Use              Flood Damage
Med       0                       High     100                 High    100                 High   100
Low     100                       Med        0                 Med       0                 Med       0
                                  Low        0                 Low       0                 Low       0

   Potential Habitat (m-sq)
  "none"         0                                                   % of Poten Habitat Occupied
  <1000       40.0                                                   <25            90.0
  1000-3500 40.0                                                     25-50          10.0
  3500-7500 20.0                                                     50-75             0
                                                                     75-100            0
                                 Area Occupancy 20 yr (m-sq)
                                "gone"        35.8
                                <1000         46.4
                                1000-3500     17.0
                                3500-7500     0.80
                         OUTCOMES
                      (Area of TWR in m2)
Baseline                     Gone         51.7
   Flow 100-180              <1000        30.3
   Invasive – med.
   Floating - low            1000-3500 13.7
   Flood - low
   Recreation - low          >3500        4.3
Alt. 1                       Gone         50.6
   Flow 50 -100
                             <1000        20.9
   Invasive – low
   Floating - low            1000-3500 15.2
   Flood - low
   Recreation - low          >3500        13.4
Alt. 2                       Gone         35.8
  Flow 100-180               <1000        46.4
  Invasive – low
  Floating - med             1000-3500 17
  Flood - med
  Recreation - med           >3500        8
              Next Steps
• Break out into groups
• Repeat rapid prototyping for the Fountain
  Darter and Comal Springs Dryopid Beetle
• Continue work with refining alternatives
  and work on the simulation model
• How this will input into the RIP