The Complete IDC Intelligence Solution HPC User Forum

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					Welcome To The 40th
 HPC User Forum
      Meeting
   Beijing, China
   October 2010
Agenda: Welcome

• Welcome by our host: The Beijing Computing
  Center
• IDC welcome and HPC User Forum background:
  Vernon Turner, Earl Joseph and Steve Conway
• IDC HPC Market Overview: Jie Wu and Earl
  Joseph
Introduction: Logistics

We have a very tight agenda (as usual)
     Please help us keep on time!

Review handouts
     Note: We will post most of the presentations on
      the web site
 HPC User Forum Goals

• Assist HPC users in solving their ongoing computing,
  technical and business problems
• Provide a forum for exchanging information, identifying
  areas of common interest, and developing unified
  positions on requirements
     By working with users in other sectors and vendors
     To help direct and push vendors to build better products
     Which should also help vendors become more successful
• Provide members with a continual supply of information
  on:
       Uses of high end computers, new technologies, high end best
        practices, market dynamics, computer systems and tools,
        benchmark results, vendor activities and strategies
• Provide members with a channel to present their
  achievements and requirements to interested parties
HPC User Forum Mission

     To Improve The Health Of The
 High-performance Computing Industry
Through Open Discussions, Information-
    sharing And Initiatives Involving
HPC Users In Industry, Government And
               Academia
       Along With HPC Vendors
     And Other Interested Parties
Steering Committee Members

   •   Steve Finn, BAE Systems, Chairman
   •   Sharan Kalwani , KAUST, Vice Chairman
   •   Earl Joseph, IDC, Executive Director
   •   Vijay Agarwala, Penn State University
   •   Alex Akkerman, Ford Motor Company
   •   Doug Ball, The Boeing Company
   •   Rupak Biswas NASA/Ames
   •   Paul Buerger, Avetec
   •   Steve Conway, IDC Research Vice President
   •   Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute
   •   Jeff Broughton. NERSC/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
   •   Merle Giles, NSCA/University of Illinois
   •   Chris Catherasoo, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory
   •   James Kasdorf, Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center
   •   Doug Kothe, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
   •   Paul Muzio, City University of New York
   •   Michael Resch , HLRS, University of Stuttgart
   •   Marie-Christine Sawley, ETH Zurich - CERN Group
   •   Vince Scarafino, Industry Expert
   •   Robert Singleterry, NASA/Langley
  IDC HPC
Market Update
Top Trends in HPC

The global economy in HPC appears to have leveled off
   The first half of 2010 grew by 2%
   We are forecasting 3% to 5% growth in 2010
   The high end of the market grew by 65% in 2009!
Major challenges for datacenters:
   Power, cooling, real estate, system management
   Storage and data management continue to grow in importance
Software hurdles will rise to the top for most users
   Driven heavily by multi-core processors and hybrid systems
   Application scaling and performance is a problem
SSDs will gain momentum and could redefine storage
GPUs are seeing real tractions in certain verticals
The worldwide Race on Petascale is in full speed
HPC Server Market Size By Competitive
Segments (first half of 2010)


                                    HPC
                                  Servers
                                  $4,131M




                                                            Workgroup
   Supercomputers                                         (under $100K)
    (Over $500K)                                              $699M
      $1,386M


                       Divisional        Departmental
                    ($250K - $500K)     ($250K - $100K)
                        $572M               $1,474M
 HPC Market Results:
 Revenues and System Units
Segment                Q110            Q210     Sequential
                Revenue ($K)    Revenue ($K)       Growth
Supercomputer         669,521         716,725          7.1%
Divisional            273,753         298,033          8.9%
Departmental          688,785         784,900         14.0%
Workgroup             372,914         326,041        -12.6%
Grand Total         2,004,973       2,125,700         6.0%

Segment                Q110            Q210     Sequential
                  Shipments       Shipments        Growth
Supercomputer             527             703         33.4%
Divisional                865             945          9.2%
Departmental            4,094           4,762         16.3%
Workgroup              20,987          21,592          2.9%
Grand Total           26,473          28,002          5.8%
HPC Vendor Revenue Shares, Q210

                       Cray
                       0.4%   Hitachi Other
  NEC            Dawning       0.5% 10.4%
  0.8%            0.6%                                 HP
          Bull                                        33.3%
          0.9%
  Appro
  1.2%         SGI
               2.3%


     Fujitsu
      1.6%
          Sun
          2.2%

                Dell
               16.2%
                                               IBM
                                              29.5%
Revenue Share by Vendor
Supercomputer Segment, Q210
           Appro Bull        Cray
           1.3% 2.6%    NEC 1.3%    Other
                        0.2%        1.8%
               SGI
   Fujitsu    2.1%
    0.3%                                     HP
          Sun                               27.4%
          0.8%

       Dell
       5.0%




                IBM
               57.2%
       HPC Server Processor/Sockets
       Metrics, First Half of 2010

                                  Ave.
CPU Type System ASP($K)   CPUs/System    $(K)/CPU   CPUs /$M

x86-64             69.1            25         2.7        364

EPIC              219.5            25         8.8        114

RISC              120.3            15         7.9        126

Vector            647.9            12        54.0         19
Total HPC Revenue Share by Processor Type




Source IDC, 2010
Total HPC Revenue by OS


                             100%

                             90%

                             80%
  HPC revenue share by O/S




                             70%

                             60%
                                                                                     Linux rev.
                             50%
                                                                                     Unix Rev.
                             40%
                                                                                     W/NT Rev.
                             30%

                             20%

                             10%

Source IDC, 2010
         0%
                                    2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009
Industry/Application Segments
                Worldwide HPC Revenues ($M)
                                       2008     2009
     Bio-Sciences                    $1,412   $1,120
     CAE                             $1,131     $874
     Chemical Engineering              $238     $179
     DCC & Distribution                $572     $460
     Economics/Financial               $281     $198
     EDA / IT / ISV                    $751     $540
     Geosciences and Geo-engineering   $570     $539
     Mechanical Design and Drafting    $112      $73
     Defense                           $920     $849
     Government Lab                  $1,460   $1,349
     University/Academic             $1,852   $1,641
     Weather                           $392     $353
     Other                              $80      $78
     Total Revenue                   $9,772   $8,252
        HPC Server Revenue($K) Forecast
        2008 - 2014


WW HPC Server Forecast, 2009 - 2014
                                                                                  CAGR
                       2009      2010      2011       2012       2013       2014 (09-14)
Supercomputer       3,369,410 3,624,352 3,879,294 4,134,237 4,389,179 4,617,522      6.5%
Divisional          1,070,764 1,129,694 1,188,625 1,247,555 1,306,485 1,366,596      5.0%
Departmental        2,516,253 2,698,090 2,879,928 3,061,765 3,243,602 3,479,978      6.7%
Workgroup           1,680,687 1,787,410 1,894,133 2,000,856 2,107,579 2,242,167      5.9%
Total               8,637,114 9,239,547 9,841,980 10,444,413 11,046,846 11,706,263   6.3%
Source: IDC, 2010
   Growth In The Broader HPC Market


Worldwide HPC Revenue for Server, Storage, Service and Software Revenue ($K) Forecast, 2008 - 2013
                                                                                                         CAGR
                          2008         2009         2010          2011         2012         2013       (09 - 13)

Compute                 $9,771,849   $8,637,114   $9,239,547   $9,841,980 $10,444,413 $11,046,846         6.3%

Storage                 $3,371,288   $3,022,990   $3,280,039   $3,641,533    $3,968,877   $4,308,270      9.3%

Service                 $1,856,651   $1,554,681   $1,686,217   $1,820,766    $1,958,327   $2,154,135      8.5%

Application Software    $3,322,429   $2,971,167   $3,215,362   $3,444,693    $3,759,989   $4,065,239      8.2%

Middleware              $1,172,622   $1,062,365   $1,154,943   $1,259,773    $1,357,774   $1,458,184      8.2%

Total                  $19,494,839 $17,248,317 $18,576,110 $20,008,745 $21,489,379 $23,032,673            7.5%

Source: IDC, 2010
     HPC Server Revenue ($K) In APeJ and
     China, 2007 - 2010
HPC Server Revenue($K) in APeJ and China, 2007 - 2010(est)

Revenue                   2007         2008        2009      2010(est)    CAGR

Total WW HPC        10,076,423    9,771,849    8,637,114     9,215,801    -2.9%

APeJ Rev              1,230,567    1,145,659     915,594     1,198,054    -0.9%

China Rev              290,285      281,043      274,678      431,299     14.1%

Percentage table
Percentages               2007         2008         2009      2010(est)
APeJ/Worldwide            12.2%       11.7%        10.6%         13.0%
China/Worldwide            2.9%        2.9%         3.2%          4.7%
China/APeJ                23.6%       24.5%        30.0%         36.0%
Source: IDC, 2010
   Conclusions

 2010 is a year of evolutionary rather than revolutionary
  change in the worldwide HPC market
     Incremental advances will help, but not resolve persistent issues,
      such as highly parallel programming challenges, power and
      cooling costs, and software licensing costs
 IDC predicts the HPC market will resume growth in 2010
  and grow by 3% to 5% in 2010
     And then will rebuild to exceed $11 billion by 2014
 The recovery will benefit HPC segments unevenly:
     With hard-hit verticals such as automotive recovering more slowly
      than oil and gas, or government and academia
     The Supercomputer segment growth will remain turbo-charged by
      government spending aimed at HPC leadership and “petaflop
      club” membership
2011 IDC HPC Research Areas
• Quarterly HPC Forecast Updates
    – Until the world economy fully recovers
• HPC End-user Based Reports:
    – Clusters, processors, accelerators, storage,
       interconnects, system software, and applications
    – The evolution of government HPC budgets
    – Emerging markets including China, Russia, etc.
    – SMB and SMS research and award program
    – Clouds in HPC
• Power and Cooling Research
• Developing a Market Model For Middleware and
  Management Software
• Scaling of software – issues and solutions
• Worldwide Petascale and Exascale Initiatives
 Questions?


Please email:
hpc@idc.com



Or check out:
www.hpcuserforum.com
 Agenda: Morning Sessions

9:00am         HPC User Site Updates
         •   China Top 100 and the new ranking, Dr. Yunquan Zhang, Chinese
             Academy of Science, Chair of China Top 100 (20 minutes)
         •   HPC computing at BCC, Dr. Yu Zeng, Vice Chair, Beijing Computing
             Center (20 minutes)
         •   Boeing HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and
             what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)
       •     Vendor technical updates: Microsoft , Intel (15 minutes)
10:30am        30 minute break
11:00am        HPC User Site Updates
       •     HPC in Chemical Processing, Dr. Chen Ding, University of Rochester,
             Development of Large Scale Parallel Algorithms (20 minutes)
         •   NASA HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and
             what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)
         •   HPC in Oil exploration, challenges and opportunities, Mr. Nenghe Lai,
             Chief Engineer, China Petroleum (20 minutes)
       •     New Ideas for Exascale File Systems, Peter Braam (15 minutes)
12:30pm        Lunch Break
Please Return
  Promptly
  At 2:00pm
Agenda: Afternoon Sessions

2:00pm   HPC In Industry
         • NCSA Approaches to Industrial Outreach (20 minutes)
         • OSC Approaches to Industrial Outreach (20 minutes)
         • New Developments at Inspur (15 minutes)
3:00pm   NCI HPC site update: Key research areas, HPC computers used and
         what they would like to see improved in HPC (20 minutes)
3:20pm   HPC Cloud Panel Discussions
         • Panel on Grid and Cloud computing: Hunan Supercomputing
           Center, Tianjing Supercomputer Center, KAUST, NASA, Penn
           State, NSF, CUNY and Microsoft (1 hour)
4:15pm   15 minute break
4:30pm   High End Directions Panel
         • Panel on petascale/exascale directions and the use of hybrid
           systems/alternative processors: Institute of Science, ICT, Jiangnan
           Institute of Computing Technology, NSF, HLRS, NCSA, NCI,
           CUNY (1 hour)
5:15pm   Meeting wrap-up and the need for worldwide cooperation to advance
         HPC
  Panel #1
Clouds In HPC
Clouds In HPC Panel Members

• Sharan Kalwani, King Abdullah University of
  Science & Technology (KAUST)
• Xuebing Chi, Chinese Academy of Science
• Nenghe Lai, BGP
• Robert Singleterry, NASA Langley
• Irene Qualters, National Science Foundation
• Paul Muzio, CUNY
• Vijay Agarwala, Pennsylvania State University
• Microsoft
Cloud Panel Q1


What do you see as the future of cloud
computing in HPC?
Cloud Panel Q2


Is your organization using (or
considering using) clouds today for any
HPC workloads?
Cloud Panel Q3


What are the main opportunities for
HPC cloud computing?

 • What are the main challenges?
Cloud Panel Q4


Could clouds ever handle, say 15% to
25% of your current HPC workload?

  If not, why not?
Cloud Panel Q5


If the price was low enough, is there a
fit in your organization for clouds?

  If not, why not?
       Panel #2
High End HPC Directions
High End HPC Panel Members

• Irene Qualters, National Science Foundation
• Michael Resch, HLRS/University of Stuttgart
• Merle Giles, National Center for Supercomputing
  Applications
• Ninghui Sun, ICT
• Yunquan Zhang, CAS
• Fengbin Qi, Jiangnan Computing Center
• Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute
• Paul Muzio, City University of New York
High End HPC Panel Q1


What needs to happen for multi-
petascale and exascale systems to
become useful?
High End HPC Panel Q2


Will early exascale systems inevitably
be very narrow-purpose, able to run
only a few applications across a large
fraction of the machine?
High End HPC Panel Q3


What would be a good way to get more
applications running at the petascale/
exascale level?
High End HPC Panel Q4


How important will GPUs and other
alternative processors be for the future
of HPC, especially at the high end?

 • Do you plan to use them for your
   applications?
 • If not, why not?
High End HPC Panel Q5


What proportion of available funding
should be invested in exascale software
development, as opposed to hardware
R&D?
 Important Dates For Your Calendar

FUTURE HPC USER FORUM MEETINGS:

2011 US Meetings:
  April 5 to 7, Houston, Texas
  September 6 to 8, San Diego, California

International Meetings (Dates will be set soon):
 • CEA, France
 • Imperial College, UK
 • HLRS, Germany
     Thank You
For Attending The 40th

  HPC User Forum
       Meeting
 Questions?


Please email:
hpc@idc.com



Or check out:
www.hpcuserforum.com

				
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