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					Venezuela Real Estate Report Q3 2012




Phone:     +44 20 8123 2220
Fax:       +44 207 900 3970
office@marketpublishers.com
http://marketpublishers.com
                                                                                        Phone: +44 20 8123 2220
                                                                                        http://marketpublishers.com



Venezuela Real Estate Report Q3 2012


                 Date:        July 3, 2012
              Pages:          58
                Price:        US$ 1,175.00 US$ 999.00
                     ID:      V0A9CC0F768EN


Includes 3 FREE quarterly updates


Venezuela’s real estate sector is like none other in Latin America. In essence, the government – and,
thanks to a variety of populist policies, the public sector – is the key player. For years, the government ran
a sizeable budget deficit (in spite of the general upward trend in revenues that it received from the energy
sector). High inflation has discouraged savings and investment. Populist government policies have also
discouraged the long-term commitment of funds to real estate projects. Investors look for real appreciation
in capital values. However, it is relatively difficult to identify what is going on as a result of the low level of
transactions, particularly in the commercial sub-sectors. Parties who are lucky enough to actually own
prime property have little incentive to sell – in a country where there is, and will continue to be, a chronic
shortage.

Construction activity in recent months, however, has picked up, as part of President Hugo Chavez’s social
spending measures ahead of the presidential elections on October 7 2012. Overall construction growth
reached 4.75% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2011, and BMI expects a continued pick-up in activity over the short
term.

Similarly, we expect an uptick in wider government expenditure in the run up to October’s election,
although we are predicting a slowdown in economic growth in 2013. Real GDP in 2011 came in slightly
above our 3.2% estimate, at 4.2% y-o-y. However, while the current macroeconomic trajectory is
sustainable until October, we highlight that immediate challenges will face whoever wins the presidential
election.

Key Opportunities In The Real Estate Sector:

           In Venezuela, the main opportunity for the real estate market is a wildcard: the possibility that the
           current administration will completely revise its policies; or that Henrique Capriles’ opposition party
           will assume power and alter investment plans.
           It has been reported that housing will play a major role in October’s presidential elections. While
           current developments are firmly rooted in the residential sector, an increase in general real estate
           activity may consequently drive interest in the commercial market.
           Automotive production growth is set to continue in Venezuela, although remaining below the peak in
           2007. This could support and drive industrial real estate developments. Key Risks To The Real
           Estate Sector:
           The key threat is that of ongoing stagnation. Under the status quo, there is little reason for capital to
           flow to the real estate sector. The distortions that arise from the way Venezuela’s economy is
           managed also constrain the development of large retailers and manufacturers.
           The country’s debt burden is set to rise, and a third devaluation of the bolívar seems on the cards.



Table of Content
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis



Venezuela Real Estate Report Q3 2012                                                                                   2
                                                                 Phone: +44 20 8123 2220
                                                                 http://marketpublishers.com


Venezuela Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Venezuela Political SWOT
Venezuela Economic SWOT
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Market Analysis – Office
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (US$ per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/Leases – Mid-2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents – (US$ per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Market Analysis – Retail
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (US$ per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents – (US$ per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Table: Venezuela Retail Sales Indicators, 2008 - 2016
Market Analysis – Industrial
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (US$ per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases – Mid-2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents – (US$ per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Forecast Scenarios
Infrastructure Report
Table: Venezuela Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Venezuela Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Risks To Outlook
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity
Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Real Estate/Construction Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Latin America Real Estate Risk/Reward Ratings
Venezuela’s Business Environment
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Latin America, Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape


Venezuela Real Estate Report Q3 2012                                                           3
                                                                     Phone: +44 20 8123 2220
                                                                     http://marketpublishers.com


Company Profiles
Oriente Entidad de Inversión Colectiva de Inmobiliaria CA
Otepi
Tecnoconsult
Vepica
Demographic Data
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources




Venezuela Real Estate Report Q3 2012                                                               4
                                                                                                                              Phone: +44 20 8123 2220
                                                                                                                              http://marketpublishers.com




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