Components of Drought Risk Assessment

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					          Risk Assessment
Scoping Workshop for the Upper Colorado River Basin
                   NIDIS Pilot




                    Carly Jerla
               Bureau of Reclamation

                  Michael Hayes
          National Drought Mitigation Center
           University of Nebraska-Lincoln
    Components of Successful
     Drought Mitigation Plans

Monitoring, early warning, and prediction
   Foundation of a drought mitigation plan
   Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers
Risk and impact assessment
   Who and what is at risk and why?
Mitigation and response
   Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts
   Programs and actions during drought events
Most drought plans contain only the monitoring
         and response components.
 Risk Assessment Purpose

To identify those sectors, population
groups, or regions most at risk from
drought, most probable impacts, and
mitigation actions that will reduce
impacts to future events.
                    Western
                    Drought
                    Coordination
                    Council

        How to
        Reduce
        Drought
        Risk        Preparedness and Mitigation
                    Working Group

                    March 1998

                    Principal Authors:

                    Cody Knutson,
                    National Drought Mitigation Center

                    Mike Hayes,
                    National Drought Mitigation Center
                    Tom Phillips,
                    U.S. Bureau of Reclamation




http://drought.unl.edu/handbook/risk.pdf
Components of Drought
  Risk Assessment




   (natural event)     (social factors)

 Where does the water come from?
 Who uses the water?
      Hazard Assessment
(Understanding Drought Characteristics)


Review of all available climate resources
  Historical analyses: frequency, intensity,
  duration, spatial extent
  Temporal trends
Review available natural resources
  Streamflow, reservoirs, stock tanks,
  groundwater, etc…
Water use characteristics
  Vulnerability Assessment

Impact Assessment
  Social
  Environmental
  Economic
Causal Assessment
Temporal Trends
Impact Assessment Subcommittees

Colorado
   Municipal Water
   Wildfire Protection
   Agricultural Industry
   Tourism
   Wildlife
   Economic Impacts
   Energy Loss
   Health
Impact Assessment Subcommittees

Nebraska
   Agriculture, Natural Resources, and Wildlife
   Municipal Water Supply, Health, and Energy

New Mexico
   Agriculture
   Drinking Water, Health, and Energy
   Wildlife and Wildfire
   Tourism and Economic Impact
Impact Assessment Subcommittees

Hopi Nation
    Range and Livestock
    Agriculture
    Village Water Supplies
    Environmental Health
        Challenges
Risk: not all impacts are equal
Vulnerability to Agricultural Drought: State of Nebraska




LEGEND
       vulnerability
Water, Urban, Forest, Wetland
 Low
Low-to-Moderate

Moderate
High
                                 Albers Equal Area Projection, NAD 27
                                 Spatial Resolution: 200 m
  Risk and Impact Lessons

Stakeholders
  Reduces conflicts between water users
  Promotes support
  Helps identify areas, people, sectors at risk
Vulnerability Dynamic (shifts with time)
  Look Back and Look Ahead
Identify particular baselines
  Triggers for decision-making

				
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posted:9/28/2012
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