Indonesia Jobs Report

Perkembangan Triwulan Perekonomian Indonesia: Terbitlah Terang Shubham Chaudhuri Ekonom Senior 14 September 2009 LP3ES Jakarta, Indonesia Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global, dan jalan kedepan  Indonesia berhasil menembus badai dengan cukup baik Mengapa demikian?  Habis gelap, terbitlah terang  Agenda kebijakan mendatang Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global 5 fakta 1. Pertumbuhan terus meningkat 2. …dan lebih kuat dari sejumlah negara lain 3. Kondisi pasar-pasar modal mulai membaik 4. Inflasi berada pada tingkat rendah… namun tetap lebih tinggi dari negara-negara tetangga 5. Dampak sosial cukup terbatas Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global Pertumbuhan mulai meningkat pada awal 2009  Setelah mandeg pada akhir 2008, angka pertumbuhan triwulan menunjukan pemulihan pada paruh pertama 2009  Ekspor pulih lebih cepat dari impor, menopang PDB  Permintaan domestik tetap kuat, ditopang belanja pemilu pada awal tahun dan kini belanja stimulus pemerintah 4 Per cent (aggregate GDP growth) Per cent 8 Year on year (RHS) 3 QoQ seasonally adjusted (LHS) 6 2 4 1 2 0 Jun-02 Mar-04 Dec-05 Sep-07 Sources: BPS via CEIC, World Bank 0 Jun-09 Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global …indikator lain juga menunjukan pemulihan 120 Index Index 240 BI consumer confidence index (LHS)  Setelah kemerosotan pada 2008 akhir, sejumlah indikator menjukan pemulihan di awal 2009  Kepercayaan konsumen mencapai level-level tertinggi  Permintaan thdp kendaraan bermotor mulai pulih  Kegiatan industri mulaipulih 50 % 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2005 Industrial production 2006 2007 2008 2009 Cement sales Electricity use by industry 110 100 90 80 70 BI retail sales index (SA; RHS) 220 200 180 160 140 120 Danarakesa consumer survey (LHS) 60 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 90% Motorcycles Vehicles 60% 30% 0% -30% -60% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sources: BPS, GAI, PLN, ICA and Astra via CEIC, Danarakesa, World Bank Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global Pertumbuhan lebih kuat dari negara-negara lain  Gejolak ekstrim di pasar-pasar modal pada akhir 2008 membuat output mayoritas ekonomi merosot tajam  Perekonomian global mulai kembali stabil dan pulih pada triwulan kedua (GDP growth, quarterly seasonally adjusted) 6 % 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Philip. Malaysia Indonesia Euro Area Sources: CEIC, Haver Analytics, BPS, JP Morgan, World Bank Thailand China India Japan U.S. Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global Pasar-pasar modal mulai stabil  Yields pada utang Indonesia telah kembali pada level 2008 awal  Spreads atas utang Indonesia meningkat tajam saat pasar modal bergejolak, dan Indonesia dinilai sangat rentan  Volatilitas Indonesia juga dianggap lebih tinggi dari negara-negara lain  Spreads utang Indonesia kini sudah pulih, dan dibawah level-level pasar emerging lainnya 12 % 10 8 6 4 2 0 Indonesian spreads less global emerging market average (RHS) Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 (EMBI spreads on sovereign USD bonds) Indonesian USD bond spreads (LHS) 400 % bps 21 32018 15 240 12 160 9 (local currency 5 year bond yields) Indonesia 80 0 -80 6 3 0 Jan 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Thailand Oct 08 Jan 09 Philippines Jan 07 Jul 07 Sources: JP Morgan, BI, CEIC, World Bank Apr 09 Jul 09 Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global Pasar-pasar modal mulai stabil  Rupiah, cadangan devisa telah kembali stabil  Saat gejolak pasar mencapai puncak , depresiasi rupiah mencapai sepertiga nilai semula, sementara cadangan devisa turun drastis – sebelum kemudian pulih kembali IDR/ 12,600 Foreign exchange reserves USD (USD bn; RHS) 12,000 11,400 10,800 10,200 9,600 9,000 8,400 Jan 07 Jul 07 Jan 08 Jul 08 Jan 09 Jul 09 Source: BI USD 65 bn 60 55 50 Exchange rate (IDR/USD; LHS) 45 40 35 30 Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global Inflasi, pada titik terendah pun, tetap relatif tinggi  Inflasi mendekati titik terendah  Harga pangan yang lebih sangat menguntungkan rumah tangga miskin  Inflasi inti tidak turun begitu jauh 6 5 Per cent Per cent  Kendati demikian, tingkat inflasi Indonesia tetap jauh diatas mitramitra ekspornya Food (RHS) 24 20 20 15 10 5 0 Per cent Per cent 20 15 Indonesia India China 4 3 Inflation (RHS) Poverty basket (RHS) 16 12 10 5 0 2 1 0 8 4 -1 Aug-07 Inflation - monthly (LHS) Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 0 Japan -5 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Thailand -5 Aug-08 Aug-09 -4 Aug-09 Sources: BPS, CEIC< World Bank estimates of poverty basket inflation Ekonomi Indonesia ditengah krisis global Dampak sosialnya terbatas  Tingkat kemiskinan nasional turun 14.2%  Pengangguran terbuka juga turun  Lapangan kerja meningkat lebih cepat daripada populasi usia kerja  Namun mayoritas pekerjaan berada disektor informal 25 23.4 % 20 15 11.5 10 6.4 5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 National poverty rate (%) 19.1 18.4 18.2 17.4 16.7 Open unemployment rate 17.8 16.0 11.2 16.6 15.4 14.2 8.1 6.1 9.1 9.9 10.3 9.3 8.5 8.1 Source: BPS Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus badai?  Struktur ekonomi  Tidak terlalu tergantung pada ekspor – pasar domestik yang besar (ditambah dengan momentum) % 2 1 GDP growth (Sep-08 to Mar-09) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 0 4 8 12 16 20 Medium- and high-tech manufacturing output (% GDP) Sources: IMF, CEIC, ThomsonReuters, RBA, BPS, World Bank Mexico Spain Canada France US Netherlands UK Italy Germany Malaysia Korea (producers of capital and high-tech goods suffered larger falls in GDP) Indonesia Australia  Tidak banyak menghasilkan produk-produk teknolog tinggi , tapi lebih banyak menghasilkan komoditas Japan Thailand Taiwan 24 % Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus badai?  Memasuki krisis dengan posisi kuat  Sektor keuangan cukup kuat – tidak banyak dipengaruhi produkproduk kuangan kritis  Kekuatan sektor swasta cukup rendah  Utang publik rendah, posisi fiskal cukup kuat (central government budget deficit and debt levels) Deficit (RHS) % 120 100 % 3.0 2.5 2.0 80 60 40 20 0 77.1 Public debt 102.5 80.0 76.4 65.4 58.3 55.2 (LHS) 45.6 38.6 34.9 32.9 32.9 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Sources: MoF and World Bank 2009* Mengapa Indonesia berhasil menembus badai?  Pemerintah pro-aktif  Pengamanan pasar modal  Belanja stimulus plus pemotongan pajak  Keuangan publik (Central government budget balance and bank deposits at the end of the first half of each year, IDR trillions) IDR trillion IDR trillion 80 60 40 20 0 Fiscal Balance -20 S1 2005 S1 2006 S1 2007 S1 2008 S1 2009 Govt. deposits at BI (RHS) -40 160 120 80 40 0 Sources: Ministry of Finance and BI Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang Pemulihan berangsur  Perekonomian global mulai kembali stabil ; diramalkan akan terjadi pemulihan berangsur pada tingkat pertumbuhan  Cina dan beberapa negara berkembang lainnya diramalkan akan memimpin gelombang pemulihan  Namun pertumbuhan global diramalkan akan tetap dibawah tingkat rata-rata ~5% (Annual growth of Indonesia’s major export destinations) Per cent Per cent Forecasts 6 6 3 3 0 0 Jun-09 -3 2001 2003 2005 Sep-09 -3 2007 2009 2011 Source: World Bank Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang Harga komoditas , mengalami pemulihan walau tetap bergejolak  Harga komoditas internasional telah kembali ke level 2006  Diramalkan akan terjadi pemulihan skala kecil 100 Index 80 60 40 20 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: World Bank (Index, July 2008 peak = 100) Indonesian export prices International non-energy International energy Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang Artinya bagi Indonesia, sekarang dan kedepan  Indonesia pada posisi menguntungkan, tapi kondisi global yang melemah akan menurunkan prospek pertumbuhan sementara mempertahankan pertumbuhan juga membutuhkan usaha ekstra  Upaya mengentaskan kemiskinan akan mengalami penurunan  Defisit anggaran bisa lebih kecil dari anggaran yang ditawarkan pemerintah Budget deficit may well be smaller than government’s proposed budgets, suggesting greater scope for stimulatory spending  Scope to lock-in current low inflation rates 2008 Gross domestic product Gross domestic product Consumer price index Consumer price index 6.1 9.8 2009 2008 2010 2009 2011 2010 4.3 6.1 4.7 9.8 -1.8 2.1 5.4 4.3 5.6 4.7 3.3 -1.8 6.0 5.4 6.5 5.6 3.4 3.3 2011 6.0 6.5 3.4 11.5 Major trading partner trading partner growth 2.1 Major growth Poverty rate Poverty rate 15.4 14.215.4 13.614.2 11.5 13.6 Sources: BPS, CEIC, World Bank. World Bank projections Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang Namun masih ada sejumlah tantangan global  Tantangan jangka menengah adalah untuk melepaskan berbagai stimulus yang digunakan untuk menghadapi krisis :  Mengurangi stimulus fiskal dan beban utang negara maju menjadi lebih susah akibat penduduk yang semakin tua dan political will  Melepaskan stimulus moneter menjadi susah akibat ketidakpastian seputar lags (terlalu cepat berdampak buruk pada pemulihan, terlallu lambat dan inflasi melonjak) dan pergeseran dari inflasi produk ke volatilitas harga aset  Artinya volatilitas pasar modal kemungkinan akan tetap tinggi (kurs, harga komoditas, suku bunga, dsb.)  Indonesia sangat rentan  Volatilitas, dan dampaknya pada ekonomi, akan tetap lebih kecil dari akhir 2008  Tantangan jangka panjang  Ketidakseimbangan global – membaik tapi tetap tinggi kareana negara-negara OECD lebih menghemat  Peralihan struktural ke harga energi dan modal dunia yang lebih tinggi – ditambah dengan harga karbon yg lebih tinggi? Prospek: habis gelap, terbitlah terang …resiko-resiko yang berdampak pada outlook Indonesia  Skenario (Annual GDP growth) 7 Per cent Per cent 7 (Poverty rate) 2008 High 6 Low Reference 6 2009 14.2 14.2 14.2 2010 13.6 13.9 13.4 2011 11.5 11.8 11.3 Reference projection High scenario 15..4 15..4 15..4 5 5 Low scenario 4 4 3 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 3 Sourcse: BPS, World Bank projections Looking ahead to accelerating growth Rising or floating 1600 Per-capita real GDP grow th trajectories (constant 2000 USD) Indonesia "rising" Thailand (1979 to 1993) Philippines (1993 to 2006) 800 1200 Indonesia "floating" 400 Indonesia (1978 to 2007) 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: World Bank 2014 Realizing the development agenda  Indonesia is poised for private sector driven investment and growth with the right policy improvements for the investment climate and complementary public investments  Indonesia can afford to spend more on these development priorities  Indonesia’s fiscal and debt position is strong…  …and there are resources to be had if energy subsidies are reduced A big push on infrastructure – a two part strategy  Indonesia is ready for and needs some breakthroughs:  Easing the transport bottleneck:  the Trans-Java highway (trans Sumatra too?)  This could change global perceptions (Indonesia as a BRIC?) while being desirable in its own right  While delivering a big push at the local level by:  Building world-class cities by Investing in urban infrastructure (mass transport, housing, water and sanitation) in the key cities that drive Indonesian competitiveness  Revitalizing PDAMs to provide water and sanitation to Indonesia’s citizens (and especially a growing middle class)  But this will require providing resources and changing incentives – including through performance linked matching grants to Local Governments for roads/water/sanitation Accelerating investment climate reforms and attacking coordination problems  Take a more aggressive stance toward facilitating domestic and foreign investment including  Lower entry barriers, including the time and cost to start a business, the Negative List (maintaining the positive improvements in the 2007 revision while relaxing restrictions in key sectors)  Lower operating costs with a focus on actionable steps to improve logistics,  Improve trade facilitation (replacing paper copies with a single electronic document and approval) through the National Single Window  and control the proliferation of non-tariff barriers that raise costs and reduce competitiveness  To solve difficult coordination problems success here might require a Regulatory Reform Commission with a broad mandate and authority to balance interests, address policy, coordination and implementation issues …and the sectors with major reforms have experienced accelerat growth  Service sectors, many deregulated at the start of the decade, have been growing much faster than the rest of the economy  Partly this reflects the fact that telecoms, retailing and domestic airlines all experienced rapid growth  But partly that other sectors, especially mining and manufacturing have not been doing as well 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 2000-02 Sources: BPS and World Bank (average annual growth) Agriculture, mining & manufacturing Services 2002-04 2004-08 10/16/08 Putting in place a Social Protection System Consistent with Middle Income Status  Opportunities and Challenges  Indonesia has the resources and institutional capacity to develop effective SP systems  as demographic and epidemiological challenges mount  Key elements  Build proven and successful social assistance and poverty alleviation programs (PNPM, BOS, BLT,…) into a comprehensive social assistance program  Lay the groundwork for a future National Health Insurance System that is clear, feasible and affordable  And put in place a grand bargain between employers and workers on severance pay that provides worker’s security without discouraging job creation 10/16/08 But all of this will require a bigger push on institutional and civil service reforms  Replicate models of institutional reform underway (at the Ministry of Finance – especially Tax and Treasury) in other institutions with significant contact with the public—Customs, BPOM, Manpower, Trade and Industry…  Complement ongoing bureaucracy reforms at the institution level with a modernized regulatory framework and central institutional set-up for civil service policy making, regulation and management  Improve compensation, recruiting and promotion but link it to accountability  Allowing fit for function institutions (not one size fits all) Indonesia Economic and Policy Update: Clearing Skies Shubham Chaudhuri Senior Economist 14 September 2009 LP3ES Jakarta Indonesia