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Sandy Stewart
          SNAP - Overview
• Introduction and background comments
• Strands of Project
• Components of Project
• Experimental nature of project – use of
  web for dissemination of ideas
• Project management
                   Karen Dunnell
                   Measuring the UK economy 2008

Achieving coherence is a particularly difficult challenge, and
   the attempt to improve coherence as more information
   becomes available is a significant reason for longer-term
   revisions. Achieving greater coherence within, and
   between, economic statistics is a bit like trying to do a
• without the overall picture on the box to guide you, and
• without having all the pieces
Indeed not only do you not have the picture, the picture itself
   changes as we compile it. Bits of the jigsaw are changed
   until we have a picture which makes economic sense.
                    Jim & Margaret
But more generally, GERS concentrates only on government
  expenditures and revenues. We need to move the debate on. We
  need to have a much better understanding of the full picture of the
  key financial flows into and out of the Scottish economy. This would
  involve setting up an integrated set of accounts showing trade flows,
  (both non-oil, and oil related): and flows of private capital. This
  broader picture would give a much clearer indication of the scope for
  manoeuvre which would be open to a Scottish government as it
  moved towards Scottish independence, and would really transform
  the current rather sterile level of debate on whether Scotland could
  go it on its own. It is to be hoped that the Scottish government builds
  on the current good progress that has been made in developing
  GERS by moving forward towards the production of a proper set of
  National Accounts.

Opening up the books on the true state of Scottish finances
Cuthbert, M., Cuthbert, J.R.: Sunday Herald, 22nd June, 2008.
             Hervey Gibson
Conclusion in Note to SESCG – October 2007:
• Accept short term GDP for what it is
• Speed up production of balanced IO tables –
  perhaps not tied cravenly to UK regional
• Supplement ABI with own data
• Need to work on Scottish price indices
• Need an outward looking and theoretical review
  to GDP/GNI – rather than the introspective and
  practical approach that didn’t work last time.
           Project Overview
Two main strands:
• Building on the annual Input-Output framework
  for Scotland to produce more up to date
  estimates of income, expenditure and production
  GDP in value terms;
• Use quarterly UK National Accounts and other
  data sources to produce a range of consistent
  quarterly economic indicators for Scotland.
          SNAP Components
•   Input-Output
•   Government Expenditure and Revenue
•   Macro-economic estimates
•   Trade
•   Investment
•   Prices
            Component - 1
• GDP(O) – presented as short-term index
• GDP(E) – present component estimates
  as produced
• GDP(I) – work more closely with ONS to
  improve quality of regional accounts.
• Consider balanced estimates
  unconstrained to any of the above
             Component - 2
• Move to consistent tables over time –
  publication of multi-year balance 1998-
  2004 early next year.
• Update all changes through time – e.g.
  reclassifications, FISIM, alignment with UK
  National Accounts.
• Quarterly updates of GDP weights.
• Anchoring GDP to I-O system.
             Component – 3
  Government Expenditure and Revenue
• Revenue estimates to be calculated
  – Financial year estimates for GERS
  – Calendar year estimates for Annual Accounts
• More comprehensive analysis of COINS
  database – linking expenditure to budgets,
  HMT funding
          Component – 4
     Macro-economic estimates
• Revisit GVA, GDP and GNI estimates
• More modelling
  – taxation analysis
  – use of PIMs and WGA to evaluate capital
   consumption for Scotland
• Focus on other economic indicators in
  system – GDHI per capita – better
  measure of economic welfare
• New indicators – Household Savings Ratio
           Component – 5
• Incorporate GCS and IME into one system
• Research into flows between onshore
  Scotland and the Continental Shelf.
• Balance of Trade?
             Component – 6
• Very limited information available for
• Consider Supply-side estimates of
  Scottish investment
• Surveys – of capital goods suppliers, - of
  capital goods purchasers
• Commodity Flows Modelling.
            Component – 7
• Assess quality of UK PPIs for Scotland
• More distinction between export and
  domestic prices
• Double deflation using the I-O framework
  – use of input and output prices
• Calculation of implied GDP deflators for
• Consider consumer price indices for
      Management of Project
• Key staff: Sandy Stewart, Andrew
  Mortimer, Deborah Pegg, Kenny Grant
• National Accounts Branch – incorporating
• Working Group – open to SESCG
  members to contribute
• Martin Kellaway – Special Adviser

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