Dai Stock R ily Report for Thursday M T Morning, S September 24, 2009
ANN NOUNCEME ENT: We will be sending yo trading par b ou rtners of 4 oth people tha you may wa to hook up with via her at ant p ema Many of y have expressed a nee for partneri up with so ail. you ed ing omeone. Whe you get an email from u before en n us, you click “Reply to All” can yo delete our e u ou email address from that lis so we don’t get bombard with many email? We s st t ded y are almost ready to complete this. Sorry fo the delay. We will also adding a for y or o rum in the M Member’s Are where ea you can post qu u uestions and a variety of people will likely answe including myself and o d f er, other experie enced trad ders. We are setting up a webinar FREE to all s F subscribers, $139 for non subscribers. We will anno ounce here on the exact time but tentativ e, vely, we are sc cheduling for October 4th, Sunday even ning at 6pm P Pacific time. T This is scheduled to be abo 90 minutes and Mitch will focus on lo out s w onger term sto picking using various s ock stock charts. We will see if Q&A can be s up but the is a max of 1,000 people online, making Q&A diff set ere o ficult. We will establish a r l registration pr rocedure late this week.
deral Open Market Com mmittee) The FOMC (Fed de ges est nd mad no chang in intere rates an the Fede eral Reserv said the economy was in ve e reco overy mode. The stock market mad a small de jump initially afte being up slightly and t p er s then heavy sellin occurred for 2 straigh hours. ng ht se rams often are the culpri of a its Thes sell progr syste ematic comp puter control lled selling b often but mean nothing the following days of the d ouncement. anno ow n d The small shallo correction we had been expected d d o ason but an could be initiated now for no specific rea ebb and flow of t market. We are exp the pecting the buy on the dip pattern to con ntinue to work and the few s shorts we do have left (t o that weren’t stopped out!) are likely to provide good profits an then we ) o nd look for more lon ideas to buy close to the next ng b om. botto de ories showed a surprise jump today Crud oil invento whic caused oil prices to dr about 4 percent ch rop today (Wednesd day). The independent o and gas oil ks en mentum run t past few the stock have bee on a mom week and it loo like the party is over there. Som ks oks p me have outright tur e rned into unc cooperative bullshorts, like A ATPG specifically but th should sta getting his art
Summa Opinion ary n The buy on the dip pattern is w y working well a again as it has for last 6 month All stock market indices have hs. k hit high highs as with many s her stocks. Hold as long as d the mar rket is trending up with c consideration to reducin long posit ng tions. Calend dar Monday 1000am E Leading Indicators, 0 y, ET, 0.7% Tuesda 1000am ET, Housing Price Index 0.5% ay, g x, Wednesday, 215pm ET, FOMC Rate Decis m C sion, n/c. Wednesday, 1030a ET, Crud Inventorie -4.73M am de es, day, 830am ET, Initial J Jobless Claims, 545k. Thursd Friday, 1000am ET New Home sales, 433 T, e 3k Follow w-up: ATPG c corrected nic cely today a dropped further than and n expecte This cou be the tri ed. uld igger or cata alyst for the selling t start on th highly ov to his verbought sto ock. It has been ac cting the wa we don’t w ay want bullshorts to act and tha is to make higher high after the in at e hs nitial 1-2 day y correcti almost 2 weeks ago. This was in the midion day ale today and tomorrow w are lookin for ert d we ng another big scalp L r LONG after a initial drop first. an
REPEAT from last n night’s repor ATPG, AT Oil and rt: TP Gas ann nounced after rmarket today that they low y wered their output fo orecasts for this 3rd quarter (Q3), issuing 5.3 million common shares and also issuing c n convertible pr referred shares. This should trigger some selling in this overpriced s stock. T This was dow 10% afterm wn market today. This whole sector i really hot r is right now (X XTO, COG, EO GMXR, OG, ATPG, A , APC, C APA CHK, CRK, NX FST, GDP, SWN and XY, many ot thers).
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into a corrective mode now. (See last night’s commentary in Follow-up). The Dow closed down 81 pts after being up 88 pts, Nasdaq closed down 15 pts and S&P 500 down 10.7 pts, with the indices down 0.7 to 1.0% today.
Swing Trade Ideas: EBIX, Ebix computer software was first posted on last night’s report; still not too late to buy long.
Intermediate Trade Ideas: FXI, Xinhua 25 (China) should be watched for a long position. Let it stop dropping first before buying. PRU, Prudential; MET, Metlife are life insurance companies that are worth a small long position this week. This slight pullback is likely only a pause before continuing to higher highs. STP, Suntech Power is in the solar sector. Consider re-shorting this after previous attempt failed. Aggressive Investors-Traders NANO, Nanometrics, consider re-shorting small position. DPTR, Delta Petroleum: see notes in Focus Stock (to your left). IMPORTANT NOTE: It looks like Bullshorts are finally breaking down including the difficult ones. These are likely to break down substantially and go lower than normal.
Focus Stock: DPTR, Delta Petroleum (speculative trade for aggressive investors) had its 2nd day not dropping below that $1.86 number and this should start bouncing up this coming week or so. Don’t get leveraged on this speculative long idea. Repeat: This idea was posted Monday night as an aggressive trade. This was the one that had bad test results on a
well and has dropped in half the last few days. This dropped to a low of $1.86 and this was the area we were looking for the stock to bounce. A high volume of 93.5 million shares traded today only increases the odds that this will be a volatile stock and likely gives an excellent potential for an intraday scalp and/or swing trade on the LONG side only. The safe strategy is to see if it drops after opening like it did today and look for the first big bottom to go long on an intraday scalp OR a swing trade long. Please use very small position size and only a long position only.
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Joey’s Corner Well. Today's scalps were interesting indeed. While there were many excellent set-ups (Bottoming MACD and Rising Stochastics up through the bottom line), few produced the desired result. Price started to rally but fizzled out. You should, however, have exited with a small profit or certainly without a loss. No doubt the Fed rate announcement had much to do with the lack of follow through as the market waited for the decision. This lack of follow through has been a condition for much of this week. Hopefully now that the announcement is out of the way, the market can re-set to a more typical modus operandi. Never the less, the following were today's profitable scalps: AGO, CME*, GS, INTU, MA, RIMM *, STI (Nice trade), UTA *, X (Tied for Best in Show), XTO (Tied for Best in Show), SLB, XOM, DIS (Both long and short). The name of the game today was speed. You had to take profits quickly. Please don't get discouraged if today didn't work out for you. Traditionally, Fed Rate announcement days are tough to trade, especially for the novice. As long as you took the trade based upon the Wizard Scalp set-up, you did nothing wrong and everything right. After the fed announcement rally, we did see some very high volume selling. That being said, tomorrow will be interesting to see if the market buys the dip. * Advanced Traders
Day Traders/Intraday stock ideas: Intraday trading (or scalping) was excellent today and should continue. Continue to watch these highly active stocks for intraday scalps: TNDM, TRIT, ELOS, JDAS, VVUS, AIG, PCX, MTL, CMED, BKD, FSLR, ATPG, ZOOM, OPXA, GILD, FXI, AIG, MSO, BBBY, GOOG, INTC, SBUX, AMGN, HD, KO, MRK, OXY, BLK, ICE, PCX, WFC, FNM, ELON, CETV, HMIN, VNDA, AGO, MELI, MAC, FUQI, CSIQ, BX, BGC, TNDM, MED, DTG, X, ZION, HOT, GGC, EJ, TDG, WTFC, RYL, LAMR, TRW, MLNX, TEN, VCI, BCRX, MOS, MON, MA, CMG, COG, BLK, BIDU, AMZN, CIEN, DHI, HIG, WHR, BAC, WFC, STP, FSLR, AAPL, BIDU, MSFT, QCOM, GOOG, DELL, INTU, PAYX, SBUX, CME, ICE, FSLR, STP, CMG, IPI, MEE, FXI, GS, STI, USB and TSL (short and long) for potential scalps. Remember the technical indicator MACD should be weighted more than the stochastics in evaluating your technical indicators. Look for stocks to open down and possibly dropping a little more after the open to give the ideal drop and pop pattern in which to consider buying long on the first bottom.
Ticker Symbol
Type
Notes
Target Open Price 56.01 47.67
Target Close Price
TLT, 20 Yr Treasury PEP, Pepsico GS, Goldman Sachs PRU, Prudential
LONG-INT LONG-INT LONG-INT LONG-INT
Bond fund etf finally getting some traction this month. On nice uptrend, hold, 4% dividend, could add or open. Moving up without me, painful to watch. Insurance stocks pullback not concerning yet, add.
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SBUX, Starbucks FXI, Xinhua 25 GOOG, Google JPM, JP Morgan AAPL, Apple Cmptr A, Agilent AXP, Amer Express TOL, Toll Brothers BAC, Bank of Amer MET, MetLife CMG, Chipotle Grill CAH, Cardinal Hlth UNG, US NatGas ETF NANO, Nanometrix URI, United Rental WCRX, Warner Chil VVUS, Vivus ATPG, ATP Oil STP, Suntech Pwr FSLR, First Solar ZOOM, Zoom Tech CWEI, Clayton Will EL, Estee Lauder MGM, MGM Mirage MA, Mastercard ABX, Barrick Gold MNKD, MannKind FCX, Freeport McM EBIX, Ebix, Inc. LNCR, Lincare Hldgs TNDM, Neutral Tan
LONG-INT LONG-SWI LONG-INT LONG-SWI LONG-INT LONG-INT LONG-INT SHORT-INT LONG-INT LONG-INT LONG-SWI LONG-INT LONG-INT Bullshort LONG-INT Bullshort Bullshort Bullshort SHORT-SWI SHORT-SWI SHORT-SWI Bullshort LONG-INT SHORT-SWI LONG-INT LONG-INT Bullshort LONG-INT LONG-SWI SHORT-SWI LONG-SWI
Nice uptrend, hold. Could be good entry this week. Strong uptrend continues, hold. Coming down for better entry price long. Higher high today, robostock not dropping. Pullback before buying long may not happen. Should rebound soon, hold or add. Looking good for longer term short. Starting to move but has been weak ugly sister. Insurance stocks pullback not concerning yet, add. Waiting for pullback before buying again. Sold half Tuesday for 7.5% profit, consider reducing. High volatility with natural gas prices. Hold if short or consider re-shorting. Consider reducing long position, hold remaining 1/2 Covered short for 4.2% profit, consider closing short. Covered Monday 5.4% profit. Not acting good for short. Should open down tomorrow on aftermarket news, hold. Consider re-entering short now. Could be turning over now, hold short. Covered on early Monday session low for 27% profit. Difficult stock to trade with low vol, reduce or cancel. May get a chance at $35 to buy afterall. Very small short position, shorts not working well, close? Might have slight pullback, hold. Gold moving higher, small long position, hold. Corrected very nicely today, close short on drop Thurs? Small long position, hold. Small long position, hold. Small short position, hold short. Small long position, only hold for 1-3 days.
19 457 41.10 161.7 32.90 21.90 17.76 37.60 25.83 38.60 27.78 42.90
9.78 20.60 11.70 18.58 155.5 11.88 9.29 19.77 11.10
13.30 222 37.30 11.88 71.20 46.35 32.95 22.06
SWI (SWING): 2-7 days INT: Intermediate term position 8 days to several months. Open Price: price paid on opening long position or price sold on short position. Bold notes on table above represent changes from previous day.
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Current positions are highlighted in yellow. Green colored lines are next probable positions to consider. Red, take action or watch closely, no color usually were stocks just finished trading or are watching.
IMPORTANT: The notes in this stock list is how I have been writing notes to myself about stocks for 16 years. They are general guidelines as to how I am approaching a particular stock and conditions may change during the next trading day that may cause a change in opinion before the next evening report is written. IMPORTANT NOTE, PLEASE READ: Remember not to get too heavy in one sector and gradually move in because it is unrealistic to think we get the exact bottom. We want to gradually move into this sector and eventually build full size long positions in them that may be swing trades lasting for days or intermediate trades lasting weeks. If you spend too much money too quickly, you will run out of ammunition, then get emotionally stressed when stocks are going against you. If you get too leveraged you may be forced to sell at a loss because you are racking up losses at twice as fast if you are margined 2 to 1and then miss the big move up we are looking for in oil and gas stocks. Advice: Don’t get leveraged in any one position long or short. Spread your money out between a variety of stocks and the higher amount of money you are working with, the smaller percentage of money you can afford to trade in one stock position. The main reasons why people fail to make money in stocks consistently (according to Mitch King): 1. They are too emotional, controlled by greed and fear. 2. Not using a high probability technique to buy and sell (or no technique at all!) 3. Position size is too big in one stock relative to total account value (which is related to #1 above). 4. Not patient or willing to spend enough time to learn a good trading technique. 5. Expectations are unrealistic to make large amounts of money in a short time period and at the same time violating #1, 2, 3 or 4 above. Thoughts: Best odds only, be decisive, aggressive, mentally flexible, stay in position size, don’t overtrade and wait a little longer to buy and wait a little longer to sell. You will find that will make you more money on your trades. Trade what you see, not what you hope for. Intermediate and swing trades are really important to have trailing stop losses set. Don’t trade unless the setup is there for you, then use the charts to tell you when the odds are heavily in your favor. Don’t force anything to work for you, let the setups develop and then take advantage of that. Be patient. Stay in position sizes without letting any intraday trade represent no more than 10-15% of your total account value. As you build your account, your position size percentage should get smaller and smaller to lower your risk. Stop losses: Many people ask about stop losses on intraday trading and my response is that the stops should be wider because they are stops “just in case” a disaster news event hits the stock. When you follow the technical indicators as I show you on the intraday scalping tutorials, rarely will a stop loss be hit. The indicators can be used with uncanny accuracy as a forecasting tool so don’t set your stop losses on the intraday scalping too tight. Anyone setting small stops while scalping will consistently lose money on scalping because stocks move around a lot even though they follow the technical indicators. Stop losses on swing and intermediate term trades can be sent anywhere from 5-7-10% and trailing stop losses are best. Progress Report: We have had numerous requests for the real-time the Trading Room and this is being developed. The delivery of information and quality of ideas will be very unique—there won’t be anything like this! Thoughts: Keep steady, calm, decisive, aggressive. Have no fear and no greed. Keep looking at what to be doing next in a calm manner. Don’t focus on the past or beat yourself up what you did or didn’t do or what you should have done. Just keep playing the next shot, which in this business your next shot could be just sitting on the sideline. If you have been uncomfortable shorting stocks, which most people are, try to learn this technique, it will be a useful tool in the coming years. When several stocks from the same sector are listed, like from the housing industry or steel industry for example, don’t short all of them unless you are well diversified and it represents a small percentage of your total stock account (in that same account).
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Also note that we are in what Martin Pring, PhD explains in his book The All-Season Investor (I think it is this one of his), the business cycles and which one is good for various financial investments. He would describe that we are in Stage II of the business cycle which is positive for bonds and stocks but negative for commodities.
Put the odds in your favor and have a great day! Mitch King www.TradeStocksAmerica.com
Contents: online stock trading, trading strategies, stock picks, stock market education, stock market investing course, educational stock trading videos, stock trading newsletter, stock market newsletter, Mitch King is the founder of TradeStocksAmerica.com. All material presented herein is believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to its accuracy. All material represents the opinions of Mitch King. Investment recommendations may change without notice and readers are urged to check with their investment counselors before making any investment decisions. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Mitch King and/or the staff at TradeStocksAmerica.com may or may not have investments in any stocks cited above before or after this newsletter is prepared. Opinions expressed in these reports may change without prior notice. Disclaimer - Stock investing or stock trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. There is risk of loss as well as the opportunity for gain when buying or selling stocks, bonds, option contracts or engaging in any strategy listed in the Daily Stock Report, The Wizard Training Course, The Trading Room and our seminar or workshops. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept the risks when investing or trading in any financial markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell stocks. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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