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					     Session IX: Presentation
1.   What is intelligence?
2.   What is the purpose of intelligence services?
3.   What are the activities of intelligence
4.   What types of intelligence services exist?
5.   How is intelligence produced?
6.   How to establish control and oversight over
     intelligence services?

What is intelligence?
= unbiased information relevant to a
government‘s formulation and implementation
of policy to further its national security
interests and to deal with risks, dangers, and
threats from actual or potential adversaries
= to find out intentions, capabilities, plans for
action of actual or potential opponents as well
as their organization, resources, means,
methods, communications and activities
Potential or actual opponents do their best to
keep this type of information secret, and to
engage in disinformation, denial, deception,
subversion and other clandestine activities 2
What is intelligence?
Multitude of definitions

In general usage, intelligence denotes 5 things:
1.   A particular knowledge
2.   The type of organization producing that
3.   The activities pursued by such organizations
4.   The process guiding these activities
5.   The products resulting from these activities
     and processes
    What is the purpose of intelligence?
   Ensure early warning
   Provide long-term expertise
   Support the national decision- and policy-
    making process
   Support national and international crisis
   Support national defense and, in case of
    conflict and war, military operations
   Maintain and protect secrets
Raison d’être for intelligence

… to find and interpret data and
information concerning national
security that the government needs,
but cannot obtain from the media,
other government entities or from
commercial sources better, more
safely, or more cheaply
The scope of intelligence
Risks, dangers and threats:

   External from hostile states and
    non-state actors

   Internal against the ability to
    govern, the use of violence to
    change policies, or exclude from the
    body politic members of a given
    ethnical, racial, or religious group
    The activities of intelligence
   Collection
    Gathering of raw data and information through espionage,
    technical means, and exploitation of ‘open sources’
   Analysis and Synthesis
    Process to make judgments and estimates since collected
    information is fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible to
    divergent interpretations
   Counterintelligence
    Protection of society and intelligence against harm that might
    be inflicted by hostile intelligence services, through defensive
    and offensive measures, counterespionage, and deception
   Covert action
    To influence clandestinely events and developments abroad
    directly through deniable actions of persuasion, propaganda
    and paramilitary operations                                        7
Level of abstraction Information process flow                      Processes

      Wisdom                                                         Leadership
                                      Application                  Decision making
 Knowledge effectively
                            Process applying knowledge to          Decision aiding
                         effectively implement plan or action
                         to achieve desired goal or end state
                                                                 Inference (Induction,
    Knowledge                      Understanding                 Deduction, Abduction)
Information understood     Process of comprehending static             Reasoning
     and explained        and dynamic relationship between      Uncertainty management
                         sets of information and the process
                          of synthesizing models to explain
                                  those relationships                 Alignment
   Information                                                  Correlation association
Data placed in context                                              Extrapolation
indexed and organized               Organization                     Deconflicting
                          Process of aligning transforming,
                           filtering, sorting, indexing and         Preposessing
                         storing data elements in relational         Calibration
                          context for subsequent retrieval            Filtering
  Measurements and
    observations                                                      Indexing

   Physical process           Process of collecting and                Sensing
                              dispatching quantitative                Collection
                            measurements to appropriate             Measurement
                                     processing                    Message sparsing
                                                                   Data acquisition
What types of intelligence services exist?

   External or Foreign Intelligence Services
   Internal or Domestic Intelligence Services,
    often also called Security Services
   Military or Defense Intelligence Services
   Criminal Intelligence Services
   Special Branches for intelligence collection (for
    SIGINT e.g. the US NSA, the UK’s GCHQ, the Russian
    FAPSI, and for IMINT e.g. the US NGA and the NRO
    that operates satellites)
    Intelligence organization
   External or Foreign Intelligence Service producing
    intelligence relevant to external security and for
    warning – requires knowledge of the risks, dangers,
    threats, and opportunities, and about the likelihood of
    events and outcomes
   Internal or Domestic Intelligence Service producing
    intelligence relevant to internal security: for the
    protection of the state, its constitutional order, the
    society, and the integrity of its territory, air- and sea-
    space from foreign influenced activities such as
    subversion, espionage, sabotage, and politically
    motivated violence
Intelligence organization

Purposes and targets of foreign intelligence and
domestic or security intelligence collection differ. So
too do the nature and extent of the risks to which they
give rise. It is important that the management, control
and accountability arrangements reflect these
differences. Because of the intrusive nature of the
powers of internal intelligence services, and the fact
that collection is executed domestically, potentially
against the own citizens, domestic or security
intelligence requires stricter controls to ensure that
domestic security and safety are appropriately
balanced against the rights of individual citizens and
residents                                              11
Intelligence organization

   Military or Defense Intelligence Services
    producing intelligence relevant for
    defense planning, the armed forces, and
    support to military operations
   Criminal Intelligence Services produce
    intelligence on organized crime groups,
    corruption, and criminal activities with an
    aim to prosecution

Intelligence organization
   Distinction between external and internal has never been absolute
   Traditional limits between external, internal, and also criminal
    intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred, hence artificial and
    questionable, since there is convergence, notably in countering
    terrorism, organized crime, and proliferation
   This is why smaller countries with fewer resources might prefer to have
    just 1 intelligence organization
   This avoids wasting efforts, resources and time; solves the risk of
    unhealthy competition between the different agencies; simplifies
    contacts, intelligence exchange, and cooperation with foreign
    intelligence services; facilitates high subordination of intelligence in the
    state’s hierarchy and also coordination efforts and cooperation with
    other ministries and agencies; and alleviates control and oversight of
   Among others, the Spanish CNI, the Dutch AIDV, the Turkish MIT, and
    OSA of Bosnia-Herzegovina are ‘fused’ intelligence agencies
Major categories of nation-state intelligence
Focus                              Object of analysis         Reporting cycle

Strategic and national intelligence (for national decision-makers & policymakers)
Understanding of current and        Foreign Policy          Infrequent year/month
future status + behavior of foreign Political posture       long-term estimates &
nations + non-state actors          National stability      projections months/years
Estimates of the state of global    Cultural ideologies     long-term analysis
activities                          Foreign relations       months/years
                                    Science & Technology
Indications & Warnings of threats Intentions                frequent status reports

Military operational intelligence (for military leadership)
Understanding of military        Order of battle              Continually updated
powers, OB, future potential,    Military doctrine            status databases
technological maturity           Science & Technology         I&W hours/days
                                 Command structure
                                 C4IRS + Force strength       Crisis analysis
                                 Force status + intent        daily/hourly
Military tactical intelligence (for commanders and units)
Real-time understanding of          Military platforms        Command & fire support
military units, force structure +   Force + operations        Situational awareness
current behavior in the field       Courses of action         Applications min/hours
Traditional and new intelligence
Traditional Focus                     New Focus
A few large nation-state threats      Many diverse and empowered non-
                                      state actor threats
Threats caused by continuity of       Threats resulting from discontinuities
world affairs                         in world affairs
Centralized intelligence              Distributed intelligence
Focus on collection and secret        Focus on analysis, collaboration, open
sources                               and closed sources

Targets are known, continuous,        Targets unknown, discontinuous, and
predictable                           unpredictable

Intelligence management on tactical   Intelligence management on
operational, measurable objectives    anticipatory, adaptive objectives

Hierarchical analysis organization    Networked analysis organization and
and control                           collaboration
Focus on intelligence as product      Focus on intelligence as a service
 The intelligence cycle
                             products       Intelligence consumers

   Finished                 Dissemination                     Consumer

                                                 Planning and
   Analysis-synthesis                               direction

 Processed                                                      Plans

              Processing         Raw          Collection
Planning and direction

Involves management of entire intelligence effort, from
identification of the need for data that is derived from threat
assessment or the priority listing of yet unsolved strategy and
policy issues, deciding which nations or groups abroad and at
home warrant intelligence surveillance, to the final delivery of
intelligence product to the customer
Process initiated by requests or requirements for intelligence
based on the ultimate needs of the customer – the President,
Prime Minister, National Security Council, ministers or other
government agencies
Requests are parsed into information required, then to data that
must be collected to estimate or infer required answers
Data requirements are used to establish a plan of collection, which
details elements of data needed and the targets − people, places,
and things – from which data may be obtained

   Establish collection plan
   Tasking of human and technical sources
    of collection to collect required data
    and information
   All collection disciplines should be
    engaged against the same target
The sources and methods are among the
most fragile – and most highly protected –
elements of the process                    18
Intelligence collection categories

OSINT    Open source intelligence

HUMINT   Human intelligence

SIGINT   Signals intelligence

MASINT   Measurements and signatures

IMINT    Imagery intelligence

CNE      Computer network exploitation
   Foreign radio and television news sources
   Foreign printed materials: studies, books,
    magazines, periodicals, journals
   Gray literature – printed and electronic
   Openly available reports
   Diplomatic + Attaché reporting
   HF radio, telecom, Internet conversations
   Foreign network computer sources
   Reports and forecast from businessmen,
    travelers, universities, think tanks, etc    20
   Reports from agents and spies abroad
   Reports from residents of intelligence services
   Debriefings of defectors, turn-coats, walk-ins
   Interrogation of prisoners and criminals
   Information gleaned from foreign residents
   Discussions with personnel in foreign nations
   Reports from counterintelligence operations
   Messages from friendly third-party sources
Data and information collection through intercepts of radio, radar,
or other electronic emissions, including laser, visible light, and
electro optics
5 subsets of SIGINT collection disciplines:
COMINT                   communications traffic monitoring
ELINT                    electromagnetic signals monitoring
                         externals: events, activities, relationships,
                         frequency of occurrence, modes,
                         sequences, patterns, signatures
                         internals: contents
CRYPINT                  decryption of ciphered messages
FISINT                   foreign instrumentation signals
TELINT                   telemetry, beacons, video links, etc
Exploitation of:
 physical properties: nuclear, biological,
  chemical, and materials composition
   multi- and hyperspectral imagery data
    derived from analysis of emitted and reflected
    energy across the spectrum of light: radio
    frequencies, infrared, UV, lasers, electronic
   mechanical sound, shock waves, acoustics
   magnetic properties
   vibration and motion
Imagery − also referred to as PHOTINT
   Air and space imagery
    Satellite signals and data streams received and
    reconstructed as images from reflections of several bands
    across the spectrum of light – some visible, some invisible,
    like from IR or UV spectral analysis
    Photography, film, video and high-definition TV and other
    image-capturing technologies from aircraft and UAV
    Used for surveillance, monitoring, weather forecast to earth

   Terrestrial and video imagery
Computer network exploitation
   Network analysis and monitoring
   Message interception
   Traffic analysis
   Computer intrusion
   Penetration
   Exploitation of data-banks        25

Conversion of vast amount of data collected to a more
suitable form for production – machine and foreign
language translation, decryption, rendering texts or
pictures readable, etc
Indexing and sorting of data by subject matter and data
reduction – interpretation of information stored on film
and tape through highly refined photographic and
electronic processes − and organizing of data in an
information base, making it available for rapid computer
Progress on meeting the requirements of the collection
plan is monitored and tasking may be refined on the
basis of received data
Analysis and Synthesis
Intelligence = Knowledge of the hidden +
foreknowledge of the unpredictable
   The prelude to decision and action by national
    decision-makers, policymakers, military leadership

   Knowledge that helps consumers and clients to
    consider alternative options and outcomes

   Process of collection of facts, their analysis, quick and
    clear evaluations, production of assessments and
    warnings, and timely dissemination to consumers

   Analytical process that must be rigorous, timely, and
    relevant to policy needs and concerns
Analysis and Synthesis
Vast majority of collected information is
fragmentary, ambiguous, and susceptible
to widely divergent interpretation
Thus, process of collation, analysis and
evaluation of all available raw and «all-
source» information and its transformation
into intelligence is vital to make
judgments about intentions, capabilities
and actions of opponents
Best performed close to users of product
Finished Intelligence disseminated to consumers in a
variety of forms – reports to oral briefings − and
formats: from dynamic operating pictures to formal
reports to policymakers
3 categories distinguished by past, present, and future
   Current intelligence: news-like reports describing
    recent events or Indications & Warnings
   Basic intelligence: complete description of a specific
    situation (Order-of-Battle, political situation, etc)
   Intelligence estimates: predicting feasible future
    outcomes as result of current situation, constraints,
    and possible influences                             29
2 phases mostly overlooked in the process
 Consumption & feedback
 How, and in which form, policymakers consume
 intelligence and the degree to which intelligence is used
 are important issues
 Relationship with decision-makers should be an active
 and not a passive one = dialogue between consumer
 and producer
 However, objectivity demands a certain distance and a
 willingness to consider all variables – not just the ones
 the analyst or his customer has deemed most important
 in the past
 Customers should give producers some sense of how
 well their requirements are being met and discuss any
 adjustments that need to be made to any parts of the
    Core mission of products
   Support of security policy and foreign policy
   Detection of activities that threaten security and
    national interests
   Ascertain superiority in information warfare
   Support to defense & homeland defense planning
   Support for military operations
   Provide intelligence on economic matters that could
    affect national interests and trade negotiations
   Support to monitoring of treaties, other agreements,
    embargoes, etc
Intelligence products
   Warnings and warning reports
   Current situation reports
   Analyses
   Briefings
   Assessments
   Estimates
   Research – in-depth study of an issue

= tailored output that meets the specific user needs, is
  accurate, timely, and persuades through analytic
  tradecraft                                         32
Products of internal intelligence
   Espionage
   Sabotage and subversion
   Terrorism
   Political, ethnic, and religious extremism
   Organized crime
   Corruption
   Narcotics production and trafficking
   Money faking and money laundering
   Proliferation
   Illegal arms dealing and smuggling
   Illegal immigration
   Electronic attacks, hacking & child-pornography   33
    Products should contain:
   What is known – the facts
   How it is known – the sources where possible
   What drives judgment – linchpin assumptions
   The impact if the drivers change – alternative
   And what remains unknown
Overarching goal: to minimize the uncertainty with
  which policymakers must grapple in making decisions
  about national security and foreign policy
Must help to make sense of complex issues and to call
 attention to emerging problems or threats
Important: not only determine what is accurate, but
  also what is relevant to the policymaker’s needs and
  aspirations                                       34
The obligation to demonstrate, and be responsible for,
 performance in the light of agreed expectations
1.   Clear and agreed roles and responsibilities
2.   Clear and agreed expectations of what is to be done and how,
     what is not to be done, and what is to be achieved
3.   Performance expectations that are balanced by the relevant
     capacities of each party
4.   Timely and credible reporting of performance achieved in the
     light of expectations
5.   Review and feedback on the performance reported, such that
     achievements are recognized and necessary corrections made
Control and Supervision of Intelligence

Regardless of the particular form of control adopted in
democracies, most relevant democratic control of
intelligence services and their activities is exercised by
executive, legislative and judicial entities
Every element plays its specific role within the whole
package of control, accountability and oversight
The purpose is to provide assurance of legality,
proportionality and propriety for activities that are
necessarily conducted in secret
    Democratic control of intelligence

   Executive control
   Legislative oversight
   Judicial control and supervision
   Informal and indirect supervision by the
5 basic principles for intelligence services

1.   Provide effective intelligence essential to the
     security of the nation
2.   Have an adequate legal framework
3.   Have an effective management system
4.   Be effectively accountable
5.   Be open to internal and external review and
     to parliamentary oversight
Executive control and supervision
Executive control = the decisive role
The higher the echelon of executive control and
supervision, and the greater the seriousness
with which it executes its task, the lesser the
likelihood of problems accruing to the
government from judicial supervision and
legislative oversight
It is the executive which is fully responsible for
the proper controls and auditing of intelligence
services, thus creating the necessary base for
transparency and parliamentary oversight       39
    Executive control and supervision
   Control in the narrowest sense: ensuring that specific
    procedures are followed
   Control in the broadest sense: creating the conditions
    that lead to the achievement of agreed standards of
    performance as well as compliance with law and policy
   Control may be exercised by both formal and informal
   Formal means: to ensure conformity of activities with
    policy and procedures, proper authorizations, funding,
    audit, and review
   Informal means: focus on ethics, values, and
    Executive control and supervision
   Policymaker direction = both the foundation
    and the catalyst for the work of intelligence
   If intelligence does not receive direction, the
    chances of resources being misdirected and
    wasted increase
   Intelligence services need to know what
    information to collect and when it is needed
   They need to know if their products are useful
    and how they may be improved to better
    serve policymakers
Executive control and supervision

Main tasks of executive control:
   Make sure that intelligence functions properly
   That intelligence ask the right questions
   Collect the right information
   Respond to decisionmaker’s needs
   Are rigorous in analysis
   Have on hand the right capabilities
Executive control and supervision

Of particular importance for executive
 control is:
   To identify intelligence failures
   To take action to prevent them from
    occurring in the future

    Executive control and supervision

    The misuse of intelligence services by
    government for its own political ends must
    be excluded. To this end:
   intelligence services should be at arms
    length from policymakers
   should not be affiliated with any party
   must be neutral or depoliticized
    Control, supervision, and oversight of
    intelligence services
    Internal & external control and supervision can
    take any number of forms
   Inspector Generals
   Staff capacity of Minister
   Separate Committees for Intelligence
    Supervision and for Intelligence Policy Review
   Audit
   Ombudsman                                  45
    An external audit serves 3 purposes:
   To assess compliance with the law, ensuring that
    those given executive authority exercise this
    authority with their assigned responsibilities: to
    review behavior, identify poor administration, and
    who should be held accountable
   To assess performance in public management in
    order to contribute to organizational learning
   Compliance auditing: scrutinizing accounts to see if
    money has been spent as allocated, and to assess
    the efficiency and effectiveness of financial

   Can be given powers to investigate alleged
    violation of human rights by intelligence
   Negotiate with civil servants
   Report to legislature and make proposals
   Inform the public about the results of inquiries

    Legislative oversight
    Parliamentary Oversight
   Preferably Special or Select Committees of
    legislators, including opposition, who pass
    background security check, take secrecy oath, and
    are neither associated with the services nor with
    those to whom the services report
   Must have power and will to deter violations of law
    or failure of performance
   Should have adequately trained staff
Legislative oversight

In all aspects of governance and expenditure
of public money, Parliaments have an essential
role in monitoring and scrutinizing policy and
The budget represents the culmination of
intelligence requirements and, at the same
time, the contribution required from the
taxpayer – the electorate at large to whom the
parliamentarians are most directly responsible
Legislative oversight

The further role of Parliament:

1.   Oversight
2.   Giving a second opinion
3.   Ensuring transparency
4.   Providing a link between intelligence and
     security services and the public at large

Legislative oversight

Oversight = a process, not an event
Should be proactive and reactive
   Proactive in anticipating issues
   Reactive in initiating hearings and inquiries
    when problems or scandals occur

Legislative oversight

Monitoring implementation of legislation = goes
 to the heart of the oversight role:

   Determine whether legislation is effective and
    having the desired results

   Insuring that the laws give government and
    civil society sufficient powers to supervise
Legislative oversight

Oversight involves 2 elements:
1. Holding government accountable for:
  - the intelligence funds it requires
  - the way it spends these funds
2. Influencing the implementation of
   intelligence and security policy
Legislative oversight

Giving a second opinion
   Parliamentarians have a strong sense of what
    people will accept. Some have considerable foreign
    policy expertise. Thus, Parliament can provide a
    second opinion in – closed – sessions of oversight

   On sensitive matters which can involve great costs
    and dangers for the nation, a second opinion can
    be vital                                          54
Legislative oversight
Ensuring Transparency
Through debates, hearings and reports, legislators can
make intelligence more transparent
While proceedings are secret, much information is
disclosed to the public through annual reports
The role of the Committees is to balance security and
liberty. But care must be taken that disclosure does not
damage the ability of intelligence services to accomplish
their mission
Legislative oversight
Providing a link between intelligence and
security services and the public at large
As a general rule, intelligence should:
   Keep Oversight Committee fully and currently
    informed of activities
   Provide Committee upon request with any
    information or document in possession
   Report information on activities that are illegal or
    improper, and corrective actions taken or planned
Critical issues of legislative oversight
To keep a balance between independence and criticism
and the maintenance of a working relationship between
the Committee and the intelligence service
Intelligence is one of the only areas of government
activity where risk-taking and innovative thinking
should be encouraged
Intelligence is a domain that relies heavily on the
professional judgment and candor of intelligence
And intelligence is highly dependent upon cooperation
of other agencies, foreign governments, and individuals
    Critical issues of legislative oversight
   What the overseers do in public has effect beyond the
    circumstances of a particular inquiry or investigation
   While the Committee is naturally eager to demonstrate that
    their oversight is effective, they must always be aware of the
    inherent danger that statements and actions might distort the
    public’s perception of intelligence, create an unfavorable
    impression among potential sources, agencies of cooperation,
    foreign services and governments, and undermine the moral of
    intelligence personnel
   Thus, legislative oversight has to be determinedly non-partisan
    and discreet, and hearings should be fair
   Oversight should be more inquisitorial than adversarial
   And Committee should broaden range of oversight beyond the
    intelligence service to users of intelligence          58
Control, supervision, and oversight of
intelligence services
Judicial control and supervision
   Must review and interpret the constitutionality
    of all laws
   Must set limits intended to achieve the proper
    balance between the protection of individual
    rights and the acquisition of essential
   Must review the warrants issued by ministers59
Judicial control and supervision
“Best practices” are:
   That intelligence services consider themselves to be
    bound by the Constitution and laws, including treaty
    obligations and international law, in the same way as
    they are bound by executive orders, guidelines, and
    government directives
   To establish guidelines for internal intelligence, ideally
    approved by the Attorney General, that govern
    collection, analysis, and dissemination of information
    on citizens and resident aliens
   To have guidelines for external intelligence that limit
    use of personnel from humanitarian organizations,
    ICRC and national Red Cross organizations, aid and
    development workers, clergy, media personnel, etc.   60
Informal and indirect supervision by
the public
Civil society organizations:
   NGOs
   Lobbies
   Pressure and human rights groups
   Political parties
   Professional, cultural, and other advocacy
    or special interest associations
   The media                             61

Encouraged through a number of measures:
Open and careful recruitment, training, assignment
 career planning, and inspiring leadership
Establishment of a single intelligence school providing a
  basic curriculum for candidates from all services,
  serving the 3 goals:
  - conveying ideals of professionalism
  - inculcating devotion to public service
  - enhancing cooperation among the services
   Assignments and promotion must reflect an
    intelligence officer’s willingness to operate both
    within democratically chosen fields of national
    security concern and in democratically acceptable
   New inspiring managers reflecting the new
    professionalism must be selected and held
    accountable for motivating personnel; inculcating
    action for the collective interest of the nation;
    imposing high standards of performance; personal
    compliance with strict moral obligations and ethical
    rules of the intelligence profession; and discipline –
    including firing or transfer in case of misbehavior 63
Good governance
   equity
   pluralism
   participation
   partnership
   transparency
   subsidiarity
   accountability
   human rights
   efficiency
   sustainability
   rule of law
   effectiveness
   responsiveness   64
 The central dilemma for intelligence around the world
 concerns how to act as a protectorate of democracy,
 whilst at the same time engaging in secret operations
          that cannot be disclosed to the public
  In all democratic societies, all services are forced to
 confront the problem of achieving a balance between
                 secrecy and openness
Maintaining a degree of transparency is the best way to
ensure democratic accountability and control, which are
 necessary for raising public awareness and support for

    Public intelligence drives public policy
The new craft of intelligence recognizes that in
  a democracy, it is the educated public that
    must be addressed and kept informed
    The issuance of annual strategic threat
assessment and – when needed – operational
 threat assessments to the public underlie all
          other classified endeavors

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