Asset Pricing Myopic Loss Aversion by liaoqinmei

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									                 Asset Pricing
There is an enormous discrepancy between returns
on stocks and fixed income securities. Between 1926
and 1990, for instance, the annual real rate of return
on U.S. stocks has been about 7%, while the real
return on U.S. treasury bills has been less than 1%.

The choice of the initial year is interesting!

The Wall Street Crash of October 1929, was the
most devastating stock market crash in the history
of the United States.

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                                                     5.1
                Asset Pricing

Definition

A Treasury Bill also called a T-bill, is a short-term
security issued by the federal government. Treasury
bills have face values ranging from $10,000 to $1
million, and sell at a discount based on current
interest rates.

It is a short-term obligation that is not interest
bearing (it is purchased at a discount); can be traded
on a discount basis for 91 days.
                                                          2
                                                        5.2
               Asset Pricing

Definition

A Treasury Bond is the longest-term investment
issued by the Federal Government. They have
maturities between ten and thirty years and pay
interest every six months until maturity.




                                                    3
                                                  5.3
                Asset Pricing

Definition

Stock is the capital raised by a corporation through
the issue of shares entitling holders to an ownership
interest (equity); “he owns a controlling share of the
company's stock”.




                                                           4
                                                         5.4
              Islamic Banking

Islamic banking (or participant banking) is banking or
banking activity that is consistent with the principles
of Islamic law (Sharia) and its practical application
through the development of Islamic economics.

Sharia prohibits the fixed or floating payment or
acceptance of specific interest or fees (known as
Riba or usury) for loans of money.




                                                        5
                                                      5.5
              Islamic Banking

Investing in businesses that provide goods or
services considered contrary to Islamic principles is
also Haraam (forbidden).

While these principles may have been applied to
historical Islamic economies, it is only in the late 20th
century that a number of Islamic banks were formed
to apply these principles to private or semi-private
commercial institutions within the Muslim community.



                                                          6
                                                        5.6
      What About The U.K.?

Bankers should behave at work as they do at home,
says Archbishop Vincent Nichols, 18-9-2012.

Business leaders including Vodafone’s chief executive
Vittorio Colao and Unilever’s Paul Polman joined the
Archbishop of Westminster in a drive to restore
business’s battered reputation for ethical behaviour.

Five years on from the start of the financial crisis,
and after a series of initiatives to promote “moral
capitalism”, executives are concerned that little
progress has been made to restore public trust.
                                                          7
                                                        5.7
      What About The U.K.?

The scandal over banks’ attempted manipulation of
the Libor benchmark borrowing rate and mis-selling
of interest rate swaps to small businesses has been
accompanied by controversies elsewhere, such as
accusations that traders and speculators are rigging
the oil price. In July, GlaxoSmithKline was fined
$3bn for abusive practices in marketing drugs in the
US.




                                                         8
                                                       5.8
                 Asset Pricing

Mehra and Prescott (1985) shows that the
combination of a high equity premium, a low risk-free
rate, and smooth consumption cannot be reconciled
with plausible levels of investors’ risk aversion within a
standard paradigm of expected utility maximization.

This has become known as the equity premium puzzle.

And is clarified below.



                                                          9
                                                        5.9
                 Asset Pricing

The equity premium puzzle.

Put simply if real returns to investors from the
purchases of U.S. government bonds have been
estimated at 1% per year, while real returns from
stock (“equity") in U.S. companies have been estimated
at 7% per year (Kocherlakota, 1996). General utility-
based theories of asset prices have difficulty
explaining (or fitting, empirically) why the first rate is
so low and the second rate so high, not only in the U.S.
but in other countries too.
                                                         10
                                                       5.10
                Asset Pricing

Mehra and Prescott (1985) estimate that the
coefficient of relative risk aversion (see definitions)
should be higher than 30 to explain the historical
equity premium, whereas previous estimates and
theoretical arguments suggest that the actual figure
should be close to 1.

See explanation below.


                         Definitions

                                                        11
                                                      5.11
Relative Risk Aversion
       S&P 500




                           12
                         5.12
Relative Risk Aversion
   First Derivative




         The slope         13
                         5.13
Relative Risk Aversion
  Second Derivative




     The slope of the slope     14
                              5.14
Relative Risk Aversion




       The ratio d2/d      15
                         5.15
                Asset Pricing

A coefficient of relative risk aversion close to 30
corresponds to a situation like the following one:

Suppose that Primus is offered a 50–50 gamble
between $100,000 and $50,000; then his certainty
equivalent should be around $51,209. This is an
extreme risk aversion.

Reitz (1988) has argued that the equity premium may
be a rational response to a time-varying risk of
economic catastrophe, as bonds protect capital
investment better than equity. This explanation is
not testable.
                                                     16
                                                   5.16
                Asset Pricing

Moreover, since the data from 1926 contain the 1929
crash, the catastrophe in question must be of greater
magnitude. Also, the hypothetical catastrophe should
affect equity but not bonds: thus, hyperinflation would
not qualify.

A different line of research has managed to explain
part of the equity premium introducing unexpected
utility preferences.

In particular, Constantinides (1990) suggested a habit-
formation model in which the utility of consumption
depends on past levels of consumption as well.
                                                      17
                                                    5.17
               Asset Pricing

People become averse to reductions in their
consumption and this may be used to explain the
equity risk premium.




                                                    18
                                                  5.18
               Asset Pricing
         Equity Risk Premium
What Does Equity Risk Premium Mean?

It is the excess return that an individual stock or
the overall stock market provides over a risk-free
rate. This excess return compensates investors for
taking on the relatively higher risk of the equity
market.

The size of the premium will vary as the risk in a
particular stock, or in the stock market as a whole,
changes; high-risk investments are compensated with
a higher premium.
                                                        19
                                                      5.19
                Asset Pricing
          Equity Risk Premium
The reason behind this premium stems from the risk-
return trade off, in which a higher rate of return is
required to entice investors to take on riskier
investments.

The risk-free rate in the market is often quoted as
the rate on longer-term government bonds, which are
considered risk free because of the low chance that
the government will default on its loans.

On the other hand, an investment in stocks is far
less guaranteed, as companies regularly suffer
downturns or go out of business.                      20
                                                    5.20
                Asset Pricing
          Equity Risk Premium
If the return on a stock is 15% and the risk-free
rate over the same period is 7%, the equity-risk
premium would be 8% (15%-7%) for this stock over
that period of time.




                                                      21
                                                    5.21
               Asset Pricing

To explain the equity risk premium Campbell and
Cochrane (1999) perfect this intuition with a
carefully crafted model. While this sort of model is
probably on the right track, emphasizing only
consumption-based habit-forming neglects the
weighty role of pension funds, endowments, and very
wealthy individuals with long horizons.




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                                                   5.22
                Asset Pricing

This leaves us with two questions that are still open:

Why is the equity premium so large, and why is
anyone willing to hold bonds?

This lecture is meant to show you how this sort of
question can be approached using insights from
behavioural finance.




                                                       23
                                                     5.23
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
Benartzi and Thaler (1995) puts forth a behavioural
explanation of the equity premium puzzle based on a
partial equilibrium model. They exploit two ideas
from the psychological evidence about decision
making.

The first notion is loss aversion, which refers to the
tendency for individuals to be more sensitive to
reductions in their levels of well being than to
increases. This translates into a slope of the utility
function, which is greater over wealth decrements
than over increments.
                                                        24
                                                      5.24
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
The second notion is mental accounting, which refers
to the practice of implicitly earmarking financial
outcomes as belonging to different accounts. This
bears relevance on how outcomes are aggregated:
because of loss aversion, aggregation rules may not
be neutral.




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                                                   5.25
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
However a word of caution from Andersen et al.
(2010).

“For one celebrated example, consider Benartzi and
Thaler (1995), who use laboratory-generated
estimates from college students to calibrate a model
of the behaviour of US bond and stock investors.
Such exercises are fine as ‘finger mathematics’
exemplars, but are no substitute for estimation on
the comparable samples.”


                                                     26
                                                   5.26
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
Here is an example drawn from Barberis and Huang
(2001).

An investor named Primus exhibits loss aversion,
modelled by a utility function over wealth increments
such as u(x) = x if x ≥ 0 and u(x) = 2x if x < 0.




                                                      27
                                                    5.27
Asset Pricing - Myopic
    Loss Aversion
                                             1



                                           0.5



                                             0
          -1   -0.8   -0.6   -0.4   -0.2          0   0.2   0.4   0.6   0.8   1
Utility




                                           -0.5



                                            -1



                                           -1.5



                                            -2


                                                                                    28
                                                                                  5.28
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
Primus is thinking about buying a portfolio of one
share each of two stocks, which are currently
trading at 100. Primus believes that their values one
year from now will be either 70 or 150 with equal
probability and that the two distributions are
stochastically independent.




                                                          29
                                                        5.29
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
Primus is thinking about buying a portfolio of one
share each of two stocks, which are currently
trading at 100. Primus believes that their values one
year from now will be either 70 or 150 with equal
probability and that the two distributions are
stochastically independent. The probabilities are:-

Both loose 30 with a probability of ½×½=¼
One looses 30 and one gains 50 with a probability of
½×½ + ½×½ (gains 20 with probability ½)
Both gain 50 with a probability of ½×½=¼
                                                          30
                                                        5.30
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
If Primus is loss averse over portfolio fluctuations,
the expected utility of the investment is
           ¼ u(100) + ½ u(20)+ ¼ u(-60) = 5

Recall the possible events

              2@150 => a profit of 100
             150 and 70 => a profit of 20
             70 and 150 => a profit of 20
                2@70 => a loss of 60
and
        u(x) = x if x ≥ 0 and u(x) = 2x if x < 0
 ¼ u(100) + ½ u(20)+ ¼ u(-60) = ¼ 100 + ½ 20 - ¼ 120
                                                       31
                                                     5.31
       Asset Pricing - Myopic
           Loss Aversion
While if he is loss averse over an individual stock
fluctuation, it is
              2( ½ u(50)+ ½ u(-30)) = -10

Because for a single stock
                 150 => a profit of 50
                  70 => a loss of 30

        u(x) = x if x ≥ 0 and u(x) = 2x if x < 0
But there are two stocks
       2( ½ u(50)+ ½ u(-30)) = 2( ½ 50 - ½ 60)

which is obviously not as attractive.
                                                        32
                                                      5.32
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
The relevance of mental accounting for the equity
premium puzzle can be seen by confronting Primus
with the choice between a risky asset paying an
expected 7% per year with standard deviation of
20% and a safe asset yielding a sure 1%.

The attractiveness of the risky asset depends on the
time horizon of the investor, which is another form
of mental accounting.

The longer Primus’ investment horizon, the more
attractive the risky asset, provided that the
investment is not evaluated frequently.
                                                      33
                                                    5.33
      Asset Pricing - Myopic
          Loss Aversion
It is the combination of loss aversion and a short
evaluation period (which we call myopic loss aversion)
that makes the investor unwilling to bear the risks
associated with holding equities.




                                                       34
                                                     5.34
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
Let us go back to the equity premium puzzle.

Suppose that Primus’ preferences conform to
prospect theory. With respect to the standard
expected utility formulation, this requires three
important modifications to take into account
observed behaviour:

1. utility is defined over wealth increments;
2. it exhibits loss aversion;
3. the expected utility ∑ wi u(xi) is computed using
   decision weights wi which distort the actual
   probabilities.
                                                         35
                                                       5.35
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
The second element which is necessary to build a
multi-period model is a specification of the length of
time over which an investor aggregates returns; that
is, his evaluation period. This is not his investment
horizon.




                                                       36
                                                     5.36
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
Consider a young investor saving for retirement 30
years off in the future who gets a newsletter from
his mutual fund every quarter.

If he experiences the utility associated with his
wealth increments every quarter (when he gets the
newsletter), this agent has an evaluation period of
three months and an investment horizon of thirty
years.

Accordingly, he will behave as someone whose
investment horizon is just one quarter.
                                                        37
                                                      5.37
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
Mehra and Prescott (1985) investigate the equity
premium by asking how risk averse should the
representative investor be to explain historical
evidence.

Benartzi and Thaler (1995) approaches the puzzle by
asking how long should the evaluation period of an
investor be with prospect theory preferences to
explain the equity premium.

An answer is obtained using simulations based on the
historical (1926–1990) monthly returns on stocks,
bonds, and treasury bills.
                                                      38
                                                    5.38
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
The stock index is compared both with treasury bills
returns and with five-year bond returns, and these
comparisons are done both in real and nominal terms.
It is argued that the use of bonds is preferable
because they are more profitable substitutes for
long-term investors.
And it is argued that nominal terms (see next slide)
are preferable because they are used in most annual
reports (and because evaluation in real terms would
yield negative prospective utility over most periods).
However, the results remain robust under any of the 395.39
four possible specifications.
             Nominal –v- Real
A nominal value refers to a value expressed in money
terms (that is, in units of a currency) in a given year
or series of years. By contrast, real value adjusts the
nominal value to remove effects of price changes
over time.

A real variable, such as the real interest rate, is one
where the effects of inflation have been factored in.

Nominal means an unadjusted rate, value or change in
value. This type of measure often reflects the
current situation, such as the current price of a car,
and doesn't make adjustments to reflect factors
such as seasonality or inflation, which provide a more 40
                                                      5.40
accurate measure in real terms.
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
It is found that the evaluation period that makes a
portfolio of 100% stock indifferent to a portfolio of
100% bonds in nominal terms is about 13 months.

If the comparison is made in real terms, the
equilibrium period is between 10 and 11 months. If
bills are used in place of bonds, this period is one
month shorter.

This suggests that an evaluation period of about 12
months may lead people to consider bonds as feasible
alternative to stocks.
                                                         41
                                                       5.41
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
An obvious criticism to these findings is that most
people prefer to invest in portfolios containing both
stocks and bonds.
A second simulation is thus run; checking (under 10%
increments) which mix of bonds and stocks would
maximize prospective utility. Portfolios carrying between
30% and 55% of stocks all yield approximately the same
prospective value.
This result is consistent with observed behaviour. For
instance, the most frequent allocation in TIAA-CREF (a
very large benefit retirement body in the U.S.) is 50-50.
                                                       42
                                                     5.42
     Asset Pricing - A Partial
        Equilibrium Model
As the evaluation period lengthens, stocks become
more attractive.
The actual equity premium in the data used was 6.5%
per year, and this is consistent with an evaluation
period of one year.
What happens if the evaluation period lengthens?
With a two-year evaluation period, the premium falls
to 4.65%; with a five-year period, it falls to 3.0%,
and with 20 years to 1.4%. Therefore, assuming 20
years as the benchmark case, we can say that the
price of excessive vigilance is about 5.1% (6.5 – 1.4).
                                                          43
                                                        5.43
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
A common asset allocation for pension funds has
about 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds.
Given that it is reasonable to assume that pension
funds have an infinite investment horizon, they
should favour stocks much more.
A possible explanation links myopic loss aversion with
an agency problem. Although the pension fund has an
infinite investment horizon, its managers must report
annually on the performance of their investments and
cannot afford negative returns over long periods.
Their choice of a short horizon creates a conflict of5.44
                                                       44
interest between the manager and the stockholders.
    Asset Pricing - A Partial
       Equilibrium Model
Another source of a conflict of interest is the rule
adopted in foundations and trusts that only a fixed
percentage of an n-year moving average of the value
of the endowment (usually, n = 5) can be spent every
year.

The goals of maximizing the present value of
spending over an infinite horizon versus maintaining a
steady operating budget compete against each other.



                                                       45
                                                     5.45
       Asset Pricing - An
    Equilibrium Pricing Model
Barberis et al. (2001) builds on Benartzi and Thaler
(1995) to provide a behavioural explanation of the
equity premium puzzle based on an equilibrium pricing
model.

The new twist they add is that prior outcomes
influence the way gains and losses in wealth are
experienced.




                                                     46
                                                   5.46
        Asset Pricing - An
     Equilibrium Pricing Model
Thaler and Johnson (1990) finds that a loss is less
painful to people when it comes after substantial
earlier increases in wealth:

the earlier gains “cushion” the subsequent loss and
make it more bearable.

In financial markets, this translates into a behaviour
such that investors care less for a market dip that
follows substantial prior gains because they are “still
up, relative to a year ago.”
                                                        47
                                                      5.47
        Asset Pricing - An
     Equilibrium Pricing Model
Starting from an underlying consumption growth
process with low variance, the combination of
prospect theory and the effect of prior outcomes
can generate stock returns with high mean, high
volatility and significant predictability, while
maintaining a risk less interest rate with low mean
and volatility.




                                                        48
                                                      5.48
        Asset Pricing - An
     Equilibrium Pricing Model
This is obtained in a consumption-based asset pricing
model with a continuum of identical infinitely-lived
agents and two assets:

a risk free asset in zero net supply (equilibrium) and
a risky asset with a total supply of one unit.

Except for the modifications in investors’
preferences, the (representative) investor (named
Primus) is fully rational and dynamically consistent.


                                                           49
                                                         5.49
        Asset Pricing - An
     Equilibrium Pricing Model
The driving force in the model is a story of changing
risk aversion.
After a run-up in prices, Primus is less risk averse
because those gains will cushion any subsequent loss.
After a fall in stock prices, he is more wary of
further losses and hence more risk averse.
This variation in risk aversion allows returns to be
much more volatile than the underlying dividends: an
unusually good dividend raises prices, but this price
increase also makes Primus less risk averse, driving
prices still higher.
                                                        50
                                                      5.50
        Asset Pricing - An
     Equilibrium Pricing Model
This process generates predictability in returns very
similar to what is empirically observed:

following a significant rise in price, the investor is
less risk averse and subsequent returns are
therefore on average lower.

Moreover, since the high volatility of returns leads
to frequent losses for stocks, the loss adverse
investor requires a high equity premium to be willing
to hold stocks.

See Barberis et al. (2001) and other work by these 5.51
                                                     51

authors.
           A Biased Warning

The following is credited toTerry Smith (Daily
Telegraph, 2-11-2010), the view may be slightly
biased since he was launching his own fund.

An average fund manager charges a management fee
of 3% annually.

Smith has frequently lambasted the fund
management industry for underperformance and
overcharging customers.

Turnover of shares at FundSmith (his fund) will be
kept to a minimum.       FundSmith
                                                       52
                                                     5.52
           A Biased Warning

On the fund management industry Mr. Smith
comments: “The reaction I find most amazing is
from the individuals who disbelieve the simple
arithmetic of the example of the impact of hedge
fund style 2% and 20% fees on the division of the
resulting fund between the investor and fund
manager.

If 2% and 20% were applied to Warren Buffett’s
investment performance, over 90% of the eventual
value of the fund would accrue not to the investor,
but to the manager.”
                                                        53
                                                      5.53
           A Biased Warning

On the fund management industry Mr Smith
comments: “We have certainly seen people ripped
off. Your average active fund manager is charging
you 5% up front, 1.5% per annum and he probably
adds about another 1.5% per annum for his dealings,
so you pay about 3% per annum.

You can go and buy an index fund for 25 basis points,
a quarter of a percent. So for around about a
twelfth of what he is charging you per annum you
could just get the index, so you have clearly been
ripped off.”
                                                        54
                                                      5.54
           A Biased Warning

Mr. Smith intends to address the perennial criticism
of fund managers as fickle custodians of clients’
money.

If FundSmith serves the wider purpose of driving
down fees and livening up some of the more indolent
fund managers, investors everywhere will owe its
founder a debt of gratitude.

It is a sector congested with investment managers;
from the mediocre to the downright bad with a mania
for charging high fees, thereby eroding returns and
seldom beating the index.
                                                      55
                                                    5.55
      Next Week

Preferences In Prospect Theory




                                   56
                                 5.56

								
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