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Results of revised Nodal Change Case Load Zone

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					             CRA International



Results of revised Nodal Change Case Load
Zone Analysis
  Expanded Post-Processing Scenarios Performed




  1. One single load zone
  2. One single zone with Austin, San Antonio, and LCRA out
  3. Four zones: Houston, North, South, West
  4. Four zones with Austin, San Antonio, and LCRA out
  5. Six zones: Houston, North less DFW, South less Valley,
     West




CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                         1
  Additional Post-Processing Scenarios Performed




  • Determined load-weighted average annual LMPs
  • Determined load impacts as in original CB study of each
    nodal load zone case relative to the Base (Zonal) case
    load impacts




CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                         2
                         Average LMPs over 10-year study provide some indication of extent
                         of price differences between load zones

                                                                                      Average 10-Year LMP

                                   36.00


                                                                                                                                           Removing DFW
                                   35.50                                                 South zone price goes                              has significant
                                                                                          down slightly without                            impact on North
 Change Case Zonal Price ($/MWh)




                                                                                          NOIE load, and goes                                   Zone.
                                                                                           up slightly without                             (See Next Slide)
                                   35.00                                                         Valley



                                   34.50



                                   34.00



                                   33.50



                                   33.00
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                                                       One Zone & NOIE    Four Zone                           Four Zone & NOIE           Six Zone
                                       ne
                                     O




                                                                                                Scenario: Zone
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                                                                         3
                       10-year average LMPs mask some dynamics such as prices in DFW.
                       Annual results will be posted.
                                                      LMP Comparison: North without DFW, and DFW

                             44




                             42




                             40
Average Annual LMP ($/MWh)




                                                                         Beginning in 2010 no transmission
                             38                                          upgrades are made.
                                                                         Load growth and the lack of siting of
                                                                                                                        NORTH less DFW
                                                                         inexpensive resources within DFW
                                                                                                                        DFW
                                                                         cause DFW prices to exceed North
                             36                                          Prices.



                             34




                             32




                             30
                               2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009    2010     2011     2012     2013        2014

CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

  KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                                           4
  Annual LMPs will be posted. Shown here for first three scenarios.




       1: One Zone                  2: One Zone + NOIE Zones                   3: Four Zones
Year      System           Year System-NOIE AEN      CPS LCRA    Year HOUSTON NORTH SOUTH         WEST
2005          41.06        2005        40.84 44.59 41.47 42.08   2005    40.33    40.96   42.24   40.25
2006          37.79        2006        37.51 39.58 39.10 39.89   2006    37.63    37.35   38.97   36.49
2007          35.82        2007        35.47 38.00 37.61 38.28   2007    35.65    35.03   37.49   34.70
2008          34.35        2008        34.05 35.99 35.65 36.79   2008    34.33    33.66   35.82   32.74
2009          33.24        2009        33.11 34.03 34.07 34.02   2009    33.55    32.83   33.85   31.84
2010          32.28        2010        32.34 32.88 30.51 33.22   2010    32.43    32.19   32.48   31.29
2011          31.34        2011        31.40 31.33 31.01 30.87   2011    31.77    31.39   31.02   30.40
2012          32.32        2012        32.42 32.40 31.41 31.73   2012    33.50    32.13   31.55   31.25
2013          33.78        2013        33.99 34.61 32.10 31.73   2013    34.57    34.08   32.59   33.15
2014          34.06        2014        34.51 31.72 32.11 30.36   2014    35.35    34.36   32.41   33.04
Ave           34.61        Ave         34.56 35.51 34.50 34.90   Ave     34.91    34.40   34.84   33.52




CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

 KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                              5
  Annual LMPs will be posted. Shown here for scenarios 4 and 5.

                                           4: Four Zones + NOIE Zones
                 Year HOUSTON       NORTH-NOIE SOUTH-NOIE WEST AEN         CPS     LCRA
                 2005    40.33           40.95         42.05 40.25 44.59   41.47   42.08
                 2006    37.63           37.34         38.33 36.49 39.58   39.10   39.89
                 2007    35.65           35.02         36.93 34.70 38.00   37.61   38.28
                 2008    34.33           33.65         35.43 32.74 35.99   35.65   36.79
                 2009    33.55           32.83         33.59 31.84 34.03   34.07   34.02
                 2010    32.43           32.19         33.15 31.29 32.88   30.51   33.22
                 2011    31.77           31.44         30.81 30.40 31.33   31.01   30.87
                 2012    33.50           32.18         31.14 31.25 32.40   31.41   31.73
                 2013    34.57           34.14         32.48 33.15 34.61   32.10   31.73
                 2014    35.35           34.42         33.49 33.04 31.72   32.11   30.36
                 Ave     34.91           34.42         34.74 33.52 35.51   34.50   34.90
                                          5: Six Zones with DFW & Valley
                  Year     HOUSTON NORTH less DFWDFW SOUTH-VALLEY VALLEY WEST
                  2005        40.33        41.97 40.62             42.25 42.17 40.25
                  2006        37.63        37.55 37.28             39.26 36.78 36.49
                  2007        35.65        35.48 34.88             37.79 35.19 34.70
                  2008        34.33        34.17 33.49             36.08 33.89 32.74
                  2009        33.55        32.90 32.81             33.89 33.52 31.84
                  2010        32.43        32.09 32.22             32.41 33.01 31.29
                  2011        31.77        30.59 31.65             31.02 30.97 30.40
                  2012        33.50        30.91 32.53             31.59 31.26 31.25
                  2013        34.57        31.72 34.86             32.56 32.88 33.15
                  2014        35.35        32.23 35.06             32.10 34.71 33.04
                  Ave         34.91        33.96 34.54             34.89 34.44 33.52
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                      6
  Next charts show impact of cost to serve load under the various
  load zone scenarios




  • Results shown are cost to serve load, as defined in CB report
         – First two charts are results without congestion rent refund (similar to as
           captured in Tables 3-17 and 3-18 in the CB Study Report)
         – Second two charts are with congestion rent refund results (similar to as
           captured in Tables 3-19 and 3-20 of the CB Study Report)
             - Note that as in original CB study, congestion rent refund assumes
               congestion rents (or congest right auction revenues) are refunded
               ERCOT-wide on a load-ratio share


  • Results shown first for annual average $ impact
  • Then shown on a $/MWh basis
  • Numerical results for table 3-19 for all load zone scenarios provided.
    Full annual average numerical results will be posted


CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                   7
                                                    Table 3-17 Nodal minus Base Cost to Serve Load - No Congestion Rent Refund ($M) - 10 yr
                                                                                           average
                                                               One Zone & NOIE                                                  Four Zone                         Four Zone & NOIE                                                                                    Six Zone




                                                                 One Zone Less NOIEs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             South less Valley
                                                                                                                                                                                    South less NOIE
                                                                                                                                                                  North less NOIE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     North less DFW
                                                                                                 San Antonio




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      San Antonio
                                                    One Zone




                                                                                                                      Houston




                                                                                                                                                        Houston




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Houston
                                                                                        Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                             Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Valley
                                                                                                               LCRA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    LCRA
                                                                                                                                         South
                                                                                                                                 North



                                                                                                                                                 West




                                                                                                                                                                                                      West




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          West
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       DFW
                                          200.00


                                          100.00
Cost to serve load delta ($ millions)




                                              -


                                         (100.00)


                                         (200.00)


                                         (300.00)


                                         (400.00)


                                         (500.00)                                      Negative number indicates nodal benefit relative to zonal
                                        CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

                                        KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         8
                                                 Table 3-18 Nodal minus Base Cost to Serve Load - No Congestion Rent Refund ($M) - 10 yr
                                                                                        average
                                                        One Zone & NOIE                                                 Four Zone                         Four Zone & NOIE                                                                                    Six Zone




                                                          One Zone Less NOIEs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     South less Valley
                                                                                                                                                                            South less NOIE
                                                                                                                                                          North less NOIE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             North less DFW
                                                                                         San Antonio




                                                                                                                                                                                                              San Antonio
                                             One Zone




                                                                                                              Houston




                                                                                                                                                Houston




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Houston
                                                                                Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                     Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Valley
                                                                                                       LCRA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                            LCRA
                                                                                                                                 South
                                                                                                                         North



                                                                                                                                         West




                                                                                                                                                                                              West




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      West
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DFW
                                     3.00


                                     2.00
Cost to serve load delta ($/MWh)




                                     1.00


                                      -


                                    (1.00)


                                    (2.00)


                                    (3.00)


                                    (4.00)


                                    (5.00)                                      Negative number indicates nodal benefit relative to zonal
                 CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

                                   KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          9
                                                  Table 3-19 Nodal minus Base Cost to Serve Load - With Congestion Rent Refund ($M) - 10 yr
                                                                                          average
                                                           One Zone & NOIE                                           Four Zone                               Four Zone & NOIE                                                                     Six Zone




                                                              One Zone Less NOIEs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         South less Valley
                                                                                                                                                                                 South less NOIE
                                                                                                                                                               North less NOIE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  North less DFW
                                                                                             San Antonio




                                                                                                                                                                                                                   San Antonio
                                                One Zone




                                                                                                                  Houston




                                                                                                                                                   Houston




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Houston
                                                                                    Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                          Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Valley
                                                                                                           LCRA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 LCRA
                                                                                                                                    South
                                                                                                                            North



                                                                                                                                            West




                                                                                                                                                                                                   West




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      West
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   DFW
                                        100

                                         -
Cost to serve load delta ($ millions)




                                        (100)

                                        (200)

                                        (300)

                                        (400)

                                        (500)

                                        (600)

                                        (700)

                                        (800)

                                        (900)
                                                                                    Negative number indicates nodal benefit relative to zonal
       CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

                         KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   10
                                            Table 3-20 Nodal minus Base Cost to Serve Load - With Congestion Rent Refund ($M) - 10 yr
                                                                                    average
                                                       One Zone & NOIE                                           Four Zone                               Four Zone & NOIE                                                                     Six Zone




                                                          One Zone Less NOIEs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     South less Valley
                                                                                                                                                                             South less NOIE
                                                                                                                                                           North less NOIE




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              North less DFW
                                                                                         San Antonio




                                                                                                                                                                                                               San Antonio
                                            One Zone




                                                                                                              Houston




                                                                                                                                               Houston




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Houston
                                                                                Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                      Austin




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Valley
                                                                                                       LCRA




                                                                                                                                                                                                                             LCRA
                                                                                                                                South
                                                                                                                        North



                                                                                                                                        West




                                                                                                                                                                                               West




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  West
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               DFW
                                   1.00


                                    -
Cost to serve load delta ($/MWh)




                                   (1.00)


                                   (2.00)


                                   (3.00)


                                   (4.00)


                                   (5.00)

                                                                                Negative number indicates nodal benefit relative to zonal
                                   (6.00)
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

              KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          11
  Numerical Load Impact Data including congestion rent refund
  (Similar to CB study Table 3-19). ($ million) Scenarios 1, 2 and 3.




        1: One Zone                     2: One Zone + NOIE Zones                          3: Four Zones
Year       System          Year    System-NOIE AEN       CPS LCRA       Year    HOUSTON NORTH SOUTH WEST
 2005           (832)       2005            (973)    73     29    39     2005       (886)     (160)    227  (13)
 2006           (821)       2006            (947)    31     45    51     2006       (872)     (129)    188   (8)
 2007           (879)       2007          (1,028)    35     55    59     2007       (955)     (146)    228   (7)
 2008           (947)       2008          (1,063)    24     37    56     2008       (987)     (143)    190   (7)
 2009           (489)       2009            (530)     9     18    14     2009       (436)      (95)     50   (8)
 2010           (530)       2010            (439)    (9)   (73)   (9)    2010       (276)     (129)   (113) (13)
 2011           (655)       2011            (518)   (26)   (60)  (51)    2011       (212)     (155)   (263) (25)
 2012           (954)       2012            (766)   (31)   (89)  (68)    2012       (241)     (285)   (385) (43)
 2013         (1,219)       2013            (986)   (19)  (109) (104)    2013       (460)     (295)   (415) (48)
 2014           (850)       2014            (728)   (22)   (25)  (75)    2014       (602)     (188)    (33) (25)
Ave             (817)      Ave              (798)     6    (17)   (9)   Ave         (593)     (172)    (33) (20)




                           Negative number indicates nodal benefit relative to zonal
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES

 KEMA Consulting, Inc.                                                                                     12
  Numerical Load Impact Data including congestion rent refund
  (Similar to CB study Table 3-19). ($ million). Scenarios 4 and 5.
                                        4: Four Zones + NOIE Zones
               Year HOUSTON      NORTH-NOIE SOUTH-NOIE WEST AEN           CPS   LCRA
                2005    (886)          (160)           86    (13)   73      29     39
                2006    (872)          (130)           62     (8)   31      45     51
                2007    (955)          (147)           80     (7)   35      55     59
                2008    (987)          (144)           75     (7)   24      37     56
                2009    (436)           (95)            9     (8)    9      18     14
                2010    (276)          (128)          (22)   (13)   (9)    (73)    (9)
                2011    (212)          (154)         (127)   (25)  (26)    (60)   (51)
                2012    (241)          (283)         (199)   (43)  (31)    (89)   (68)
                2013    (460)          (292)         (186)   (48)  (19)   (109)  (104)
                2014    (602)          (184)           85    (25)  (22)    (25)   (75)
               Ave      (593)          (172)          (14)   (20)    6     (17)    (9)

                                      5: Six Zones with DFW & Valley
               Year HOUSTON       NORTH-DFW DFW SOUTH-VALLEY VALLEY WEST
                2005    (886)             (24) (136)             202    25  (13)
                2006    (872)             (33)   (97)            170    18   (8)
                2007    (955)             (34) (111)             203    25   (7)
                2008    (987)             (33) (110)             165    25   (7)
                2009    (436)             (25)   (69)              45    4   (8)
                2010    (276)             (35)   (94)           (110)   (3) (13)
                2011    (212)             (43) (112)            (227)  (36) (25)
                2012    (241)             (76) (209)            (327)  (58) (43)
                2013    (460)             (83) (213)            (357)  (59) (48)
                2014    (602)             (55) (134)              (48)  14  (25)
               Ave      (593)             (44) (128)              (28)  (4) (20)
CHARLES RIVER ASSOCIATES
                           Negative number indicates nodal benefit relative to zonal     13
KEMA Consulting, Inc.

				
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