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Overweight Banks, Equal-weight
Insurers in next 6 months
—— Investment Strategy of Financial Sector
Robert Hu, Tina Sun
May. 15th, 2009
Contents
1. Outlook of China Economy
2. Overweight Banking Sector due to Rapid loans growth and Steady
assets quality
3. Equal-weight Insurance Sector since valuation priced in long term
assumptions
4. Our Top Picks
www.sw108.com 申万研究 2
1.1 Recovery of China Economy is foreseeable
GDP growth saw the bottom at 4Q2008 and recovers QoQ in 2009
This round, drivers come from regional transition
GDP growth by SWS forecast Regional Transition
Service+Finance+R&D
Consumptions In Central Areas
Urbanization In Central Areas: Real
Estate, Industrial Engineering
Industrial Relocation ：Capital Intensive
Industrial Relocation :Labor
Intensive
Infrastructure
Investment
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 3
Contents
1. Outlook of China Economy
2. Overweight Banking Sector due to Rapid loans growth and Steady
assets quality
3. Equal-weight Insurance Sector since valuation priced in long term
assumptions
4. Our Top Picks
www.sw108.com 申万研究 4
2.1 Incremental loans are likely to arrive at 7.4 trillion
At the end of 1Q2009, the incremental loans reached 4.58 trillion
Incremental demands for loans come from stimulus package
25,000 30.00% 100%
20,000 25.00% 80%
20.00%
15,000 60%
15.00%
10,000 40%
10.00%
5,000 5.00% 20%
0 0.00% 0%
2009E
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
State Budget Domestic Loans Bonds
FAI (Billion) FAI growth
Foreign Inv. Own Capital Others
Source：CEIC,SWS Research
Assuming domestic loans will account 20% of total FAI funds source(5%
higher than 2008’s and close to year 2004), the incremental needs for
loans will be around 7 trillion.
www.sw108.com 申万研究 5
2.1 Incremental loans are likely to arrive at 7.4 trillion
Loans to GDP ratio Incremental loans issued by quarters
40,000 1.40 120%
35,000 1.20
100%
30,000 1.00
25,000 80%
0.80
20,000
0.60 60%
15,000
10,000 0.40 40%
5,000 0.20
20%
0 0.00
0%
E
97
99
01
03
05
07
09
19
19
20
20
20
20
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
20
Total loans(Bn) Loans to GDP 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Source：CEIC,SWS Research
If the loans to GDP ratio reaches historical peak, the incremental loans
will arrive at 7.2 trillion for the whole year.
Banks are very likely to issued 60% of total incremental loans in
1Q2009 due to no credit crunch.Thus the incremental loans will arrive
at 7.6 trillion for the whole year.
Our final forecast for incremental loans is 7.4 trillion RMB, 24% yoy
growth
www.sw108.com 申万研究 6
2.2 NIM will stabilize in the 2Q2009
Benchmark loans rate declined 216 basis points
Yields contraction occurred in different interest bearing assets
Yield on 3-year government bond Yield on discount bills
4.50%
12%
4.00%
3.50% 10%
3.00% 8%
2.50% 6%
2.00% 4%
1.50%
2%
1.00%
0%
0.50%
Nov-07
Nov-08
Jul-07
Jul-08
Mar-07
May-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
May-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Jan-08
Jan-09
0.00%
Jul-08
Nov-08
Jan-08
Jan-09
May-08
Mar-08
Sep-08
Annualized direct discount rate 6-month deposit rate
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 7
2.2 NIM will stabilize in the 2Q2009
NIM suffered a dramatic decline in last six months
NIM contraction for six H-listed banks
3.80%
3.60%
3.40%
3.20%
3.00%
2.80%
2.60%
2.40%
2.20%
2.00%
1Q2008 2Q2008 3Q2008 4Q2008 1Q2009
ICBC CCB BOC BOCOM CMB CITIC
Source：Company announcements,SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 8
2.2 NIM will stabilize in the 2Q2009
Yield on loans will increase due to higher per. of normal loans
Cost on liabilities will decrease due to replacement of time deposits
NIM simulation on ICBC NIM simulation on CITIC
7.5% 3.6% 7.5% 4.1%
7.0% 3.1% 7.0% 3.6%
6.5% 6.5% 3.1%
2.6%
6.0% 6.0% 2.6%
2.1%
5.5% 5.5% 2.1%
5.0% 1.6% 5.0% 1.6%
4.5% 1.1% 4.5% 1.1%
2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009 2008 1Q2009 2Q2009 3Q2009 4Q2009
Yield on loans (Left axis) Yield on investments Yield on loans (Left axis) Yield on investments
Cost on deposits NIM Cost on deposits NIM
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 9
2.2 NIM will stabilize in the 2Q2009
Do not need to worry about interest rate liberalization
NIM does not have much room to drop compared to other countries
Hardly to be promoted by government
HSBC’s NIM worldwide
14.0%
12.0% 2006 2007 2008
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
USA
Middle
Europe
Hong
Kong
Hang
Seng
Malaysia
HSBC
Brazil
Total
East
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 10
2.3 Assets quality is maintained steady
Regional transition will be the key driver for a steady assets quality in
Mid term
China economy will not stumble in 2010 or 2011
Regional transition creates a more balanced loans exposure
Short term: Enough provisions have been charged
Provisions charged through collectively NPL ratio and Coverage ratio (1Q2009)
assessed(2008)
100% 250% 2.50%
90%
80% 200% 2.00%
70%
60% 150% 1.50%
50%
40% 100% 1.00%
68.79%
30% 60.25%
49.04% 51.97% 52.18%
20% 45.05% 50% 0.50%
10%
0% 0% 0.00%
ICBC CCB BOC BOCOM CMB CITIC ICBC CCB BOC BOCOM CMB CITIC
Collectively Assessed Individually Assessed Coverage ratio NPL ratio
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 11
2.4 Better QoQ result will be upside catalyst
Forecast on net profit growth of China banks Still attractive compared to historical valuation
80.00%
70.18% 40 36.91 6.0
70.00% 5.23
35
5.0
60.00% 52.35% 30
25 4.0
50.00%
20 3.0
40.00% 31.88% 15 2.0
30.00% 10
5 1.34 1.0
20.00% 6.74
0 0.0
5.00%
Aug-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Jun-06
Oct-08
Jul-07
Jul-08
Dec-05
Mar-06
Sep-07
Dec-07
Feb-08
Mar-09
Jan-07
May-08
Jan-09
10.00%
-1.88%
0.00% -5.05% -3.25%
2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
-10.00%
PE PB
PB-ROE Table for H-listed banks
30.0% ROE Upside catalysts:
25.0%
Hang Seng
Improving loans mix
Better quarterly operating results
CMB
20.0%
CCB
ICBC
15.0%
BOCOM Recovery of China economy
BOCStandard
CITIC
Charted
10.0% BOCHK
PB
HSBC
5.0%
0.7 1.7 2.7 3.7 4.7
Source：Datastream, SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 12
Contents
1. Outlook of China Economy
2. Overweight Banking Sector due to Rapid loans growth and Steady
assets quality
3. Equal-weight Insurance Sector since valuation priced in long term
assumptions
4. Our Top Picks
www.sw108.com 申万研究 13
3.1 Long term: Rapid premiums growth maintained
CAGR of life insurance premium in 2009-2025 is expected to be 16%
Upgrade insurance depth under strong economy
Fast development in western and central region
Tax Preferential Policy for Pension Insurance
Insurance Density Worldwide Insurance Depth Worldwide
3,000 France
14.0%
life business penetration(US$)
Japan
2,500 12.0%
Singapore
2,000
10.0%
United States
South Korea 8.0%
1,500 Italy Canada 6.0% 4.40%
Germany
1,000 Bahamas
4.0% 2.04%
Spain 2.0%
500
0.0%
South
India
World
United
France
Japan
Korea
Switzerland
States
Hong Kong
0 PR China
PR China
Australia
Spain
Brazil
Taiwan
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
per capita GDP(US$)
Source：CEIC,Swiss Re,SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 14
3.1 Long term: Rapid premiums growth maintained
S shape curve for insurance density Insurance density in different regions (RMB)
250
200 Beijing Shanghai
Insurance density US$
150
人均GDP处于2000-4000
美元是保险密度快速增
100 长阶段
50 Tianjin
Fujian Jiangsu
Xinjiang Zhejiang
Guangdong
0 Shangdong
200 700 1200 1700 2200 2700 3200 3700 4200 4700 5200
GDP per cap US$
Premiums exposure for China insurers
100% 0-100
15% 13%
20% 20% 100-300
300-1000
80% 15% 16%
1000+
24%
60% 42%
Source：Company Announcement, SWS Research
40%
70% 71%
56% China Life may benefit from
20% 38% regional transition since its
mature networks
0%
China Life Ping An life Tai Ping life PICC
Eastern Central Western
www.sw108.com 申万研究 15
3.1 Long term: Wider Interest Spread
Cost of fund of insurance players
According to some international
China Life Ping An CIIIH
experience, interest spread of life Breakdown of life insurance reserve
insurance product is 1.65-2.63% Traditonal 26.8% 18.0% 10.0%
with an average of 2% Participating 71.8% 42.0% 50.0%
Universal 1.5% 40.0% 40.0%
China insurance players has Cost of fund
Traditonal 2.5% 4.0% 2.5%
potential to raise their interest Participating 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
spread through a higher Universal 3.8% 4.0% 3.6%
investment yield in the long run
Actural cost of fund 3.6% 4.0% 3.7%
Guaranteed interest rate 2.5% 3.5% 2.5%
Interest spread of diff. sectors Interest spread of insurance products
3.5% China Life Ping An CIIH
3.0%
Traditional 2.68% 1.20% 2.76%
Participating 1.18% 1.20% 1.26%
2.5%
low
低限 高限
High
Universal 1.38% 1.20% 1.66%
2.0%
Interest spread 1.58% 1.20% 1.57%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5% Source：SWS Research
0.0%
银行
Bank 债券基金
Debt fund 股票基金
Equity fund 保险
Insurance
www.sw108.com 申万研究 16
3.2 Short term: Premiums growth is likely to drop
Premiums growth rate is expected to be 5%-10% in 2009, low possibility to beat
market expectation
Short term driver:
Credit rate is attractive
Supply-driven, the increase of sales agents
Short term challenges:
Declining credit rate
Increasing base period
Declining Universal’s Crediting Rate
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.75%
4.5%
4.05%
4.0% 3.85%
3.80%
3.5% 3.60%
3.0%
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
May-06
May-07
May-08
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
China Life Ping An Huatai Taikang TPL
Source：CEIC,SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 17
3.2 Short term: Reprice pressure exists in investments
Unlike banking sector, the cost of liabilities is close to the bottom currently, but yield
on assets will keep declining due to ongoing replacement of investments
China Life Ping An CIIH
Investment assets breakdown
Cash and term deposits 20.0% 22.0% 18.0%
Bond
Government bond 20.0% 17.0% 20.0%
Financial bond 20.0% 14.0% 17.0%
Corporate bond 19.0% 19.0% 18.0%
Others 6.0% 6.0% 10.0%
Equity 10.0% 12.0% 12.0%
Other(Real estate/Infrastructure) 5.0% 10.0% 5.0%
Investment yield
Cash and term deposits 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Bond
Government bond 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Financial bond 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%
Corporate bond 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%
Others 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Equity 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
Other(Real estate/Infrastructure) 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
Investment yield of new investments 4.23% 4.49% 4.36%
Investment yield of old investments 5.50% 5.50% 5.50%
Proportion of added new investments 25% 30% 25%
Proportion of old investments 75% 70% 75%
Total investment yield 5.18% 5.20% 5.21%
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 18
3.3 Valuation has reflected long term expectation
CAGR of life insurance premium in 2009-2025 is expected to be 16%
NBV/APE keep steady due to wider interest spread
Discount rate=11.5%
The current valuation is not attractive
Ping An Method/benchmark Multiple/discount rate(%) Value(HK$m) Value per share(RMB) % of SOTP
Life insurance
EV FY2009E 80,176 10.92
NBV FY2009E 11.50% 10,416 1.42
FNBV NBM*FY2009E NBV 20 208,320 28.36
AV 288,496 39.28 81%
Other business
Non-life Peer P/B 1.5 8,137 1.66 3%
banking Peer P/B 1.2 8,789 1.44 3%
securities Peer P/B 2.0 3,845 1.05 2%
Other business Peer P/B 1.0 36,370 4.95 10%
SOTP 345,637 48.37 100%
Shares (million) 7,345
Target Price (HK$) 1.13 54.86
Source：SWS Research
www.sw108.com 申万研究 19
3.3 Valuation has reflected long term expectation
China Life Method/benchmark Multiple/discount rate(%) Value(HK$m) Value per share(RMB) % of SOTP
EV FY2009E 268,294 9.49 39%
NBV FY2009E 11.50% 16,702 0.59
FNBV NBM*FY2009E NBV 25 417,550 14.77 61%
AV 685,844 24.27 100%
Shares (million) 28,265
Target Price (HK$) 1.13 27.52
CIIH Method/benchmark Multiple/discount rate(%) Value(HK$m) Value per share(RMB) % of SOTP
TPL
EV FY2009E 10,417
NBV after expense overrun FY2009E 11.50% 1,014
FNBV NBM*FY2009E NBV 25 25,345
AV(100% of TPL) 35,762
CIIH's 50.05% stake in TPL 17,899 12.67 82.20%
other businesses/assets
TPI(50.05% stake) Peer P/B 1.5 273 0.29 1.88%
CIRe(100% stake) Peer P/B 1.5 1,962 2.08 13.51%
mgmt)
Others(insurance int./assetPeer P/B 1.0 523 0.37 2.40%
Shares (million) 1,413
Sub-total 21,609 15.41 100.00%
Source：SWS Research
Equal-weight the insurance sector
www.sw108.com 申万研究 20
Contents
1. Outlook of China Economy
2. Overweight Banking Sector due to Rapid loans growth and Steady
assets quality
3. Equal-weight Insurance Sector since valuation priced in long term
assumptions
4. Our Top Picks
www.sw108.com 申万研究 21
4.1 Earnings Forecast of Financial Sector
Last Price(HKD) 2008 PE 2009 PE 2008 PB 2009 PB NBVM Rating
CITIC 4.00 10.35 9.83 1.44 1.31 Buy
BOC 2.88 10.15 9.40 1.39 1.29 Outperform
BOCOM 6.77 10.30 9.87 1.95 1.68 Outperform
ICBC 4.65 12.37 11.98 2.26 2.08 Neutral
CCB 4.79 10.66 10.03 2.12 1.91 Neutral
CMB 17.86 10.99 11.56 2.91 2.47 Neutral
Ping An 49.35 - 35.10 3.73 3.18 16.55 Outperform
China Life 27.55 32.39 25.31 3.80 3.23 25.09 Neutral
CIIH 13.00 - 32.50 4.00 3.51 18.25 Neutral
PICC 4.69 - 45.95 2.11 2.02 Neutral
Ming An 0.90 - 30.00 0.78 0.77 Neutral
CEL 17.54 27.41 26.58 2.11 1.70 Outperform
Source：SWS Research
Note:Last price as May.15th
www.sw108.com 申万研究 22
4.2 Our Top Pick: China CITIC Bank (998.HK)
Investment Thesis
High capital adequacy ratio underpinned the highest loans growth among 6 HK
listed banks
Valuation attractive compared to its peers
Great potential in fee business due to synergy with CITIC Group
High CAR supports rapid loans growth Higher NIM due to corporate business franchise
3.4%
45.0%
40.0% 3.2%
35.0% 3.0%
30.0%
25.0% 2.8%
20.0% 2.6%
15.0%
2.4%
10.0%
5.0% 2.2%
0.0%
2.0%
ICBC
CCB
BOC
CMB
CITIC
BOCOM
2005 2006 2007 2008 1Q2009
ICBC CCB BOC
BOCOM CMB CITIC
2005-2008 1Q2009
Source：SWS Research
Upside Catalysts
Large amounts of incremental bills turn to general loans
Better QoQ results due to increasing net interest income
www.sw108.com 申万研究 23
4.2 Our Top Pick: China Everbright Limited (165.HK)
CEL has a 39.31% stake in China Everbright Securities(CES) and a 6.23% stake in
China Everbright Bank (CEB)
RNAV PB ratio of CES
12.50 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
0.8 10.47 11.48 12.15 13.83 15.51 17.19
1.0 10.82 11.83 12.50 14.18 15.86 17.54
PB ratio of 1.3 11.34 12.35 13.03 14.71 16.39 18.07
CEB 1.6 11.87 12.88 13.55 15.23 16.91 18.59
2.0 12.57 13.58 14.25 15.93 17.61 19.29
2.5 13.44 14.45 15.12 16.80 18.48 20.16
Upside catalyst
CES succeed its IPO in A-share market
1.5x 09PB
8.57
2.5x 09PB CES’s operating results beat our
8.4
Bull Case: expectation
RNAV=19.59 HKD
Revaluation on banking sector
Dividend received from CEB
1.5x 09PB
2.62
CES CEB Hong Kong business
www.sw108.com 申万研究 24
Disclaimer
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst. The analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of nor has
any financial interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst. None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any
compensation or other benefits in connection with this report to any of the analyst, the Company or the group company(ies). A group company(ies) of the Company confirm that they,
whether individually or as a group (i) are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (ii) do not have any individual employed by or
associated with any group company(ies) of the Company serving as an officer of any of the listed corporation reviewed; or (iii) do not have any financial interest in relation to the
listed corporation reviewed or (iv) do not, presently or within the last 12 months, have any investment banking relationship with the listed corporation reviewed.
Undertakings of the Analyst
Robert Hu
I am conferred the Professional Quality of Securities Investment Consulting Industry by the Securities Association of China or have equivalent professional competence. I issue this
report independently and objectively with due diligence. This report distinctly and accurately reflects my research opinions. I have never been, am not, and will not be compensated
directly or indirectly in any form for the specific recommendations or opinions herein.
Information Disclosure with respect to the Company
The Company fulfills its duty of disclosure within its sphere of knowledge. The clients may contact compliance@sw108.com for the relevant disclosure materials.
Introduction of Share Investment Rating
Security Investment Rating：
When measuring the difference between the markup of the security and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of this report, we define the terms as
follows:
Buy： with a markup more than 20% better than that of the market；
Outperform：With a markup 5% to 20% better than that of the market；
Neutral： with a markup less than 5% better or worse than that of the market；
Underperform： with a markup more than 5% worse than that of the market.
Industry Investment Rating:
When measuring the difference between the markup of the industry index and that of the market’s benchmark within six months after the release of the report, we define the terms as
follows:
Overweight：Industry performs better than that of the whole market；
Neutral： Industry performs about the same as that of the whole market；
Underweight：Industry performs worse than that of the whole market.
We would like to remind you that different security research institutions adopt different rating terminologies and rating standards. We adopt the relative rating method to recommend
the relative weightings of investment. The clients’ decisions to buy or sell securities shall be based on their actual situation, such as their portfolio structures and other necessary
factors. The clients shall read through the whole report so as to obtain the complete opinions and information and shall not rely solely on the investment ratings to reach a
conclusion. The Company employs its own industry classification system. The industry classification are available at our sales personnel if you are interested.
CSI300 is the benchmark employed in this report for A-share listed firms and FXI/SYWG Triple-C Index is the benchmark employed in this report for HK-listed firms.
www.sw108.com 申万研究 25
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www.sw108.com 申万研究 26
申万研究 • 拓展您的价
值 Research • CHINA Value Revealed
SYWG
Shanghai SWS Research & Consulting Co., Ltd.
Robert Hu
huhaoping@sw108.com
www.sw108.com 申万研究 27
