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Facing the NYS Foreclosure Crisis 2012:
Developing Effective Responses
Kausar Hamdani
Senior Vice President & Community Affairs Officer
October 5, 2011
Internal FR
Overview
• New York State trends
– Outstandings: 90+ day delinquent and foreclosed
– Flows: 90+ delinquent and foreclosed
– House price index
• Case studies
– 4 Upstate Counties
– New York City Boroughs
– Long Island Counties
Where to find our data?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/index.html
Suggestions? Feedback? E‐mail us at:
nyfed.community.affairs@ny.frb.org
US & NEW YORK STATE
OVERVIEW
US Mortgages in Foreclosure
US
Mortgages = 34,469,000
In foreclosure = 3.9%
NYS
Mortgages=1,618,000
In foreclosure=5.3%
Percent of mortgages in foreclosure
<2%
2‐4%
4‐8%
>8%
Insufficient data (fewer than
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate. 200 active mortgages)
Real Private Residential Investment
(Series Set to 1.0 at NBER Peak)
Ratio Ratio
1.50 1.50
1981 Cycle
2001 Cycle
1.25 1.25
1990 Cycle
1.00 1.00
1973 Cycle
0.75 0.75
Current Cycle
0.50 0.50
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Quarters Since NBER Peak
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Single Family Housing Market
Level Level
230 13
NAR Months’ Supply of Single
Family Homes on the Market 12
200 (Right Axis)
11
CoreLogic Single Family
170 Detached House Price 10
Index (Left Axis)
9
140
Buyers’ Market 8
110
7
80 6
5
50
4
Sellers’ Market
20 3
1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011
Source: CoreLogic, National Association of Realtors
More Stable Home Prices in the Region
CoreLogic Home Price Index, Seasonally Adjusted
Index (U.S. Peak of March 2006 = 100)
120
110
Buffalo
100
Rochester
90 New York State
80
United States
70
Jul
Shading indicates Home Buyer
NBER recession Feb09 Tax Credit Jun10
60
Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11
Source: CoreLogic Home Price Index (including distressed sales); seasonally adjusted by FRBNY staff
New York State: Trends in Delinquent Mortgages and Foreclosure
6.0%
85,535 loans
5.3%
5.0%
Percent of mortgages 90+
days delinquent
4.0%
53,534 loans
3.0% 3.3%
Percent of mortgages in
foreclosure
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
Feb‐04 Feb‐05 Feb‐06 Feb‐07 Feb‐08 Feb‐09 Feb‐10 Feb‐11
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
New York State: Flows into Late Delinquency and Foreclosure
0.7%
0.6%
Percent of mortgages to
become 90+ days late since
previous month
0.5%
0.4% 5,935
loans
0.3% 4,927
loans
0.2%
Percent of mortgages to
enter foreclosure since
0.1% previous month
0.0%
Feb‐04 Feb‐05 Feb‐06 Feb‐07 Feb‐08 Feb‐09 Feb‐10 Feb‐11
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
4 UPSTATE NEW YORK COUNTIES
Data by County
Loan Counts:
Active 60 days late 90 days Foreclosure Foreclosures/ Balance of Mean
late 1,000 owner‐ loans in balance per
occupied foreclosure loan in
housing units (Mil) foreclosure
New York 1,617,929 18,023 53,534 85,535 21.6 $28,008 $327,443
4 Upstate Counties 225,428 2,447 5,290 6,108 9.6 $577.8 $94,591
Albany 24,365 256 724 899 12.3 $120.9 $134,506
Erie 87,675 951 1,868 1,956 7.8 $163.6 $83,649
Monroe 72,700 785 1,665 1,957 10.2 $174.7 $89,284
Onondaga 40,688 455 1,033 1,296 10.7 $118.5 $91,433
Note: The data do not represent the total number of mortgages in geography but the unadjusted loan counts in the databases being used. We
estimate that the data represent approximately 65% of the total number of mortgages in the United States; however, coverage varies by
category and geography.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011; Census Bureau. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
4 Upstate NY Counties: Seriously Delinquent* Home Mortgages
4 Upstate NY Counties**
225,428 mortgages
By county
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Albany
2.7%
Onondaga
90.6%
2.3% Monroe
1.1%
3.3%
Erie
Current 30‐59 days delinquent 60‐89 days delinquent 90+ days delinquent In Foreclosure
*Seriously delinquent is 90+ days late or in foreclosure.
** In our analysis, 4 Upstate NY Counties include Albany, Erie, Monroe, and Onondaga.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
4 Upstate NY Counties*: Trends in Delinquent Mortgages and Foreclosure
3.5%
3.0%
6,108 loans
2.7%
2.5%
Percent of mortgages 90+
days delinquent 5,290 loans
2.0% 2.3%
1.5%
Percent of mortgages in
foreclosure
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Feb‐04 Feb‐05 Feb‐06 Feb‐07 Feb‐08 Feb‐09 Feb‐10 Feb‐11
*In our analysis, 4 Upstate NY Counties include Albany, Erie, Monroe, and Onondaga.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
4 Upstate NY Counties*: Flows into Late Delinquency and Foreclosure
0.6%
0.5%
Percent of mortgages to
become 90+ days late since
previous month
0.4%
743
loans
0.3%
0.2% 413
loans
Percent of mortgages to
enter foreclosure since
0.1% previous month
0.0%
Feb‐04 Feb‐05 Feb‐06 Feb‐07 Feb‐08 Feb‐09 Feb‐10 Feb‐11
*In our analysis, 4 Upstate NY Counties include Albany, Erie, Monroe, and Onondaga.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
Albany County: Home Mortgages Seriously Delinquent*
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22%
12202
Albany 12206
24,365 mortgages 12210
12047
12143
12209
12193
12189
12204
Albany avg.
89.4% 3.7%
12205
3.0%
12203
2.9% 1.1% 12208
12110
12158
12186
12009
12211
Current 30‐59 days delinquent 60‐89 days delinquent 12084
12077
90+ days delinquent In foreclosure 12054
12159
*Seriously delinquent is 90+ days late or in foreclosure.
Note: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See About the Data tab for more information and coverage estimate.
Albany County: Foreclosures by Zip Code
< Albany % in foreclosure
1‐2 x Albany % in foreclosure
> 2 x Albany % in foreclosure
Insufficient data
Albany
4%
Note: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and shaded gray.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/11. See About the Data tab for more information.
Albany County: House Price Index by Zip Code
< ‐2%
Insufficient data
Year‐over‐year percent change in House Price Indexes
20
15
10
5
0 ‐3.7%
(Jul)
‐5
‐10
‐15
Note: Based on a three‐month moving average. Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11
Source: LoanPerformance House Price Index, July 2011.
4 Upstate NY Counties: House Price Index
Year‐over‐year percent change in House Price Index
20 20
Albany
15 15
10 10
Onondaga
5 Erie 5
Monroe
0 0
‐5 New York State ‐5
‐10 ‐10
‐15 ‐15
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11
Note: Based on a 3‐month moving average.
Source: LoanPerformance House Price Index, July 2011.
Erie County: Foreclosures by Zip Code Erie
2%
< Erie % in foreclosure
1‐2 x Erie % in foreclosure
> 2x Erie % in foreclosure
Insufficient data
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/11. See About the Data tab for more information.
Monroe County: Foreclosures by Zip Code Monroe
3%
< Monroe % in foreclosure
1‐2 x Monroe % in foreclosure
> 2 x Monroe % in foreclosure
Insufficient data
Note: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and shaded gray.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/11. See About the Data tab for more information.
Onondaga
Onondaga County: Foreclosures by Zip Code
3%
< Onondaga % in foreclosure
1‐2 x Onondaga % in foreclosure
> 2 x Onondaga % in foreclosure
Insufficient data
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/11. See About the Data tab for more information.
NEW YORK CITY BOROUGHS
Data By Borough
Loan Counts:
Active 60 days late 90 days Foreclosure Foreclosures/1000 Balance of Mean
late Owner‐occupied Loans in Balance per
housing unit Foreclosure Loan in
(Bil) Foreclosure
New York City 481,642 4,824 15,834 29,609 28.7 $12.5 $422,283
Bronx 47,421 666 2,077 3,725 36.5 $1.4 $372,456
Brooklyn 132,290 1,407 4,554 10,592 38.8 $4.7 $444,505
Manhattan 76,776 189 498 1,005 5.7 $0.7 $743,924
Queens 166,653 1,940 6,720 11,307 31.2 $4.6 $409,849
Staten Island 58,502 622 1,985 2,980 25.1 $1.0 $344,287
New York State 1,617,929 18,023 53,534 85,535 21.6 $28.0 $327,443
Note: The data do not represent the total number of mortgages in geography but the unadjusted loan counts in the databases being used. We
estimate that the data represent approximately 65% of the total number of mortgages in the United States; however, coverage varies by
category and geography.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011. See ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information and coverage estimate.
Bronx: Foreclosures by Zip Code
Bronx
< Bronx %
1‐2 x Bronx % 7%
>2x Bronx %
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data. Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See
ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information.
Brooklyn: Foreclosures by Zip Code
Brooklyn
8%
< Brooklyn %
1‐2 x Brooklyn %
>2x Brooklyn %
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data. Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See
ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information.
Manhattan:
Foreclosures by Zip Code
Manhattan
< Manhattan %
1‐2 x Manhattan %
1%
>2x Manhattan %
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are
excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See ABOUT THE DATA tab
for more information.
Queens: Foreclosures by Zip Code
Queens
7%
< Queens %
1‐2 x Queens %
>2x Queens %
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data. Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See
ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information.
Staten Island: Foreclosures by Zip Code
Staten Island
5%
< Staten Island %
1‐2 x Staten Island %
>2x Staten Island %
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data. Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See
ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information.
New York City: House Price Index
Year‐over‐year percent change in House Price Index
25 25
20 20
15 Bronx 15
10 Manhattan 10
Brooklyn
5 5
0 0
Staten Island New York State
‐5 ‐5
Queens
‐10 ‐10
‐15 ‐15
‐20 ‐20
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11
Note: Based on a 3‐month moving average.
Source: LoanPerformance House Price Index, July 2011.
LONG ISLAND COUNTIES
Data by County
Loan Counts:
Active 60 days late 90 days Foreclosure Foreclosures/1,000 Balance of Mean
late owner‐occupied loans in balance per
housing units foreclosure loan in
(Bil) foreclosure
New York 1,617,929 18,023 53,534 85,535 21.6 $28.0 $327,443
State
Long Island 392,300 4,713 15,732 27,408 36.1 $9.7 $353,946
Nassau 176,996 1,862 6,178 10,426 28.8 $4.0 $383,670
Suffolk 215,304 2,851 9,554 16,982 42.8 $5.7 $335,696
New York 481,642 4,824 15,834 29,609 28.7 $12.5 $422,283
City
Note: The data do not represent the total number of mortgages in geography but the unadjusted loan counts in the databases being used. We
estimate that the data represent approximately 65% of the total number of mortgages in the United States; however, coverage varies by
category and geography.
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011; Census Bureau. See ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information and coverage estimate.
Nassau County: Foreclosures by Zip Code
Nassau
6%
< Nassau % in foreclosure
1‐2 x Nassau % in foreclosure
> 2 x Nassau % in foreclosure
Insufficient Data
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data. Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See
ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information.
Suffolk County: Foreclosures by Zip Code
Suffolk
8%
< Suffolk %
1‐2 x Suffolk % in foreclosure
> 2 x Suffolk % in foreclosure
Insufficient Data
Notes: Zip codes with fewer than 200 active loans are excluded from analysis and labeled insufficient data. Sources: LP and LPS as of 3/1/11. See
ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information.
Long Island: House Price Index
Year‐over‐year percent change in House Price Index
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
New York State
‐5 ‐5
Nassau
‐10 Suffolk ‐10
‐15 ‐15
‐20 ‐20
Jan‐05 Jan‐06 Jan‐07 Jan‐08 Jan‐09 Jan‐10 Jan‐11
Note: Based on a 3‐month moving average.
Source: LoanPerformance House Price Index, July 2011.
Data by County
Loan Counts:
Active 60 days late 90 days In Foreclosures/1000 Balance of Mean
late Foreclosure Owner‐occupied Loans in Balance per
housing unit Foreclosure Loan in
($Mil) Foreclosure
New York State 1,617,929 18,023 53,534 85,535 21.6 $28,008 $327,443
Hudson
Valley 272,561 2,912 9,470 13,708 23.9 $4,230.2 $308,592
Columbia 5,915 76 183 213 11.5 $43.3 $203,157
Dutchess 32,462 416 1,411 1,721 23.4 $441.2 $256,369
Greene 4,714 66 175 277 20.6 $46.3 $167,165
Orange 43,622 651 2,193 3,027 34.5 $717.9 $237,154
Putnam 16,116 187 523 740 25.8 $221.8 $299,749
Rockland 37,021 348 1,238 1,970 28.7 $702.8 $356,754
Sullivan 8,247 131 385 709 35.0 $117.2 $165,302
Ulster 15,283 191 681 1040 21.6 $211.6 $203,489
Westchester 109,181 846 2,681 4,011 18.8 $1,728.1 $430,833
Sources: LP and LPS as of 7/1/2011; housing unit estimates from the Census Bureau
Databases do not include all mortgages. See ABOUT THE DATA tab for more information and coverage estimate.
Where to find our data?
http://www.newyorkfed.org/index.html
Suggestions? Feedback? E‐mail us at:
nyfed.community.affairs@ny.frb.org
