2012-09-CA Forecast September 2012
Document Sample
Forecast Tables – Summary
Table 1. Summary of the UCLA Forecast for California
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Personal Income, Taxable Sales, and Price Inflation (%Change)
Personal Income (Bil.$) 1312.2 1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1526.5 1587.4 1673.8 1724.1 1794.9 1887.6
Calif. (% Ch) 6.4 5.7 7.8 4.7 2.8 -5.2 4.0 5.4 3.0 4.1 5.2
U.S.(% Ch) 6.0 5.5 7.5 5.7 4.6 -4.8 3.8 5.1 3.7 4.2 5.0
Pers. Income (Bil. 2005$) 1354.2 1387.0 1445.4 1468.3 1468.1 1390.4 1424.0 1470.7 1484.1 1516.7 1563.5
Calif. (% Ch) 3.7 2.4 4.2 1.6 -0.0 -5.3 2.4 3.3 0.9 2.2 3.1
U.S. (% Ch) 3.3 2.5 4.6 2.9 1.3 -4.8 1.9 2.6 1.9 2.7 3.1
Taxable Sales (Bil.$) 499.8 536.3 559.5 561.3 532.3 456.6 477.0 519.4 552.0 571.6 595.4
(% Ch) 8.7 7.3 4.3 0.3 -5.2 -14.2 4.5 8.9 6.3 3.6 4.2
(Bil. 2005$) 515.8 536.0 540.8 526.2 485.2 415.8 427.9 456.3 475.2 483.0 493.1
(% Ch) 5.9 3.9 0.9 -2.7 -7.8 -14.3 2.9 6.6 4.1 1.6 2.1
Consumer Prices (% Ch) 2.6 3.6 3.9 3.3 3.4 -0.3 1.3 2.6 2.1 1.8 2.2
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey, % Change)
Employment 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.9 -0.5 -4.4 -0.6 1.1 1.8 1.6 2.4
Labor Force 0.5 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.6 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 5.4 4.9 5.3 7.2 11.3 12.3 11.8 10.7 9.8 8.5
U.S. 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.6 5.8 9.3 9.6 9.0 8.2 8.0 7.7
Total Nonfarm Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, % Change)
Calif. 1.0 1.8 1.8 0.8 -1.3 -6.0 -1.1 0.9 1.7 1.5 2.3
U.S. 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.1 -0.6 -4.4 -0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.6
Construction 6.7 6.4 3.2 -4.4 -11.7 -20.9 -10.3 -1.1 2.0 0.7 1.6
Manufacturing -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -1.6 -2.7 -10.0 -3.2 0.4 0.3 1.4 2.2
Nondurable Goods -1.5 -2.1 -0.6 -1.1 -2.0 -8.1 -2.5 -0.5 0.6 1.5 1.8
Durable Goods -1.3 -0.7 -1.2 -1.8 -3.0 -11.2 -3.6 0.9 0.1 1.3 2.4
Trans. Warehousing & Util 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.3 -0.6 -6.0 -1.7 1.2 1.3 2.3 3.0
Trade 1.6 2.7 2.0 1.0 -2.5 -7.5 -0.5 1.6 2.0 1.7 1.8
Information 1.3 -1.8 -1.6 1.0 1.0 -7.4 -2.9 1.1 4.6 3.7 5.2
Financial Activities 1.9 2.8 0.8 -3.4 -6.1 -7.0 -2.9 0.2 1.3 1.5 1.9
Professional Busi. Serv. 0.6 3.0 3.8 1.0 -1.2 -8.0 0.7 2.5 4.5 3.1 4.0
Edu. & Health Serv. 1.5 1.7 1.8 3.5 3.3 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.4 1.5 3.1
Leisure & Hospitality 2.8 2.5 3.0 2.7 0.8 -4.4 -0.1 1.9 2.5 1.7 1.9
Other Services -0.1 0.3 0.3 1.0 -0.2 -4.9 -0.3 0.4 -0.6 1.2 3.1
Federal Gov't -1.7 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.5 1.2 6.8 -4.9 -2.9 -1.4 -0.3
State & Local Gov't -1.1 1.1 1.6 2.0 1.0 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -0.8 0.1
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, Thous.)
Total Nonfarm 14533 14801 15061 15175 14985 14087 13936 14060 14298 14511 14840
Construction 850 905 934 893 788 624 560 554 565 569 578
Manufacturing 1521 1503 1488 1464 1425 1282 1241 1246 1250 1267 1295
Nondurable Goods 557 546 543 536 526 483 471 468 471 479 487
Durable Goods 964 957 945 928 900 799 770 777 778 789 808
Trans. Warehousing & Util 483 487 496 508 505 474 466 472 478 489 504
Trade 2273 2335 2382 2405 2345 2169 2157 2191 2234 2273 2312
Information 482 474 466 471 475 440 428 432 452 469 494
Financial Activities 895 920 928 897 842 783 760 761 772 783 798
Professional Busi. Serv. 2098 2160 2242 2265 2239 2059 2074 2126 2221 2291 2383
Edu. & Health Serv. 1567 1593 1621 1678 1733 1760 1788 1834 1878 1907 1966
Leisure & Hospitality 1439 1475 1519 1560 1573 1503 1501 1530 1568 1595 1626
Other Services 503.8 505.4 507.0 512.1 511.3 486.2 485.0 487.0 484.2 490.0 505.3
Federal Gov't 251.0 250.4 248.7 247.1 248.4 251.3 268.3 255.2 247.8 244.3 243.5
State & Local Gov't 2146.7 2169.9 2203.9 2247.9 2271.0 2228.3 2179.9 2143.1 2118.0 2101.6 2104.0
Population and Migration
Net Inmigration(Thous) 63 -83 -53 -24 -25 -89 -47 -22 -0 18 35
Population (Thous) 35846 36115 36364 36656 36968 37212 37445 37697 37969 38257 38570
(% Ch) 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8
Construction Activity
Residential Building
Permits (Thous. Un.) 207.9 197.3 153.1 106.5 60.9 33.2 43.2 45.0 50.4 68.5 129.3
Nonres.Permits (Mil.'05$) 17699 18236 18726 18883 15311 8886 9218 10305 11104 12051 13305
UCLA Anderson Forecast, [MONTH] [YEAR] California–B.3
Forecast Tables – Summary
Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the UCLA Forecast for California
2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2 2014:3 2014:4
Personal Income, Taxable Sales, and Price Inflation (%Change)
Personal Income (Bil.$) 1701.5 1713.7 1731.0 1750.1 1767.6 1785.6 1803.5 1822.8 1848.0 1873.7 1900.8 1928.1
Calif.(% Ch) 3.9 2.9 4.1 4.5 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.3 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.9
U.S. (% Ch) 6.3 4.3 4.3 3.7 3.9 4.4 4.6 4.4 5.9 4.8 5.1 5.1
Pers. Income (Bil. 2005$) 1473.9 1480.1 1486.2 1496.2 1503.2 1512.6 1520.7 1530.1 1543.6 1556.7 1570.6 1583.2
Calif.(% Ch) 0.8 1.7 1.7 2.7 1.9 2.5 2.2 2.5 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.3
U.S. (% Ch) 3.7 3.6 2.4 3.0 2.2 2.9 2.9 2.7 3.8 2.7 3.1 2.7
Taxable Sales (Bil. $) 545.5 549.6 554.1 558.9 563.6 568.8 574.2 579.9 585.9 592.0 598.4 605.1
(% Ch) 3.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.4 4.5
(Bil. 2005$) 472.5 474.7 475.7 477.8 479.3 481.9 484.2 486.7 489.4 491.8 494.4 496.8
(%Ch) 0.9 1.9 0.9 1.7 1.2 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 1.9
Consumer Prices (% Ch) 3.0 0.9 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.2 2.8
Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey, % Change)
Employment 2.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8
Labor Force 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1
Unemployment Rate (%) 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.6 8.3 7.9
U.S. 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.5
Total Nonfarm Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, % Change)
Calif. 3.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.7
U.S. 2.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.9
Construction 4.5 3.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.7
Manufacturing 2.2 -0.6 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.0
Nondurable Goods 2.6 -1.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.4 2.1
Durable Goods 1.9 -0.4 0.5 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.3 1.9
Trans. Warehousing & Util. 0.5 2.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 3.2 1.7 2.9 2.9 3.5 3.8 2.4
Trade 4.9 1.2 0.6 1.5 1.9 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.4
Information 8.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.1 4.3 5.1 5.8 6.1 5.4 4.7
Financial Activities 1.6 3.0 0.4 0.3 1.5 2.1 2.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.1
Professional Busi. Serv. 10.0 3.6 2.6 2.5 3.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.8
Edu. & Health Serv. 4.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.9 2.6 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.0
Leisure & Hospitality 4.0 3.1 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1
Other Services -0.3 -1.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.9 4.0 4.3 4.1
Federal Gov't -6.8 -8.9 -0.6 -0.6 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.5
State and Local Gov't -1.5 -2.8 -1.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5
Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, Thous.)
Total Nonfarm 14241 14280 14315 14356 14408 14472 14543 14620 14702 14791 14884 14982
Construction 562 567 566 566 566 568 570 572 574 577 580 582
Manufacturing 1249 1247 1250 1254 1258 1264 1270 1277 1285 1292 1298 1304
Nondurable Goods 471 470 472 473 475 477 480 482 484 486 488 490
Durable Goods 778 777 778 780 783 786 790 795 801 805 810 814
Trans. Warehousing & Util. 474 478 480 482 484 488 490 494 497 502 506 509
Trade 2225 2232 2235 2243 2254 2267 2279 2291 2301 2309 2316 2324
Information 446 450 454 459 463 466 471 477 484 491 497 503
Financial Activities 767 773 773 774 777 781 786 790 793 797 800 802
Professional Busi. Serv. 2196 2215 2230 2243 2260 2279 2301 2324 2346 2370 2395 2423
Edu. & Health Serv. 1869.9 1875.9 1881.4 1886.4 1893.2 1901.6 1910.7 1923.2 1938.9 1956.2 1974.8 1994.2
Leisure & Hospitality 1554.1 1565.9 1573.0 1579.8 1585.3 1591.6 1598.5 1605.5 1613.6 1621.7 1629.9 1638.5
Other Services 484.9 483.5 483.8 484.5 486.0 488.5 491.2 494.1 497.7 502.6 507.9 513.0
Federal Gov't 252 247 246 246 245 245 244 244 243 243 243 244
State and Local Gov't 2133 2118 2113 2109 2105 2102 2100 2099 2098 2100 2105 2113
Population and Migration
Net Inmigration(Thous) -5.6 -3.4 1.5 6.0 12.3 15.6 18.8 24.8 22.7 30.2 39.3 49.2
Population (Thous) 37866 37934 38003 38074 38146 38219 38294 38371 38448 38528 38610 38695
(% Ch) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9
Construction Activity
Residential Building
Permits (Thous. Units) 46.5 54.2 50.5 50.4 55.2 61.2 71.2 86.3 111.4 121.2 141.6 143.2
Nonres.Permits (Mil. '05$) 11078 11046 11109 11183 11358 11795 12288 12765 12964 13181 13407 13666
California–B.4 UCLA Anderson Forecast, [MONTH] [YEAR]
Forecast Tables – Detailed
Table 3. Personal Income, Taxable Sales, Construction and Population in California
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Aggregates
(Bil $)
Personal Income 1312.2 1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1526.5 1587.4 1673.8 1724.1 1794.9 1887.6
Disposable Income 1157.6 1211.4 1298.3 1351.0 1409.8 1366.4 1414.5 1482.6 1518.5 1562.0 1639.0
(Bil 2005$)
Personal Income 1354.2 1387.0 1445.4 1468.3 1468.1 1390.4 1424.0 1470.7 1484.1 1516.7 1563.5
Disposable Income 1194.7 1210.9 1254.7 1266.4 1284.9 1244.6 1268.9 1302.7 1307.1 1319.9 1357.6
(Nominal %Ch)
Personal Income 6.4 5.7 7.8 4.7 2.8 -5.2 4.0 5.4 3.0 4.1 5.2
Disposable Income 6.1 4.6 7.2 4.1 4.3 -3.1 3.5 4.8 2.4 2.9 4.9
(Real %Ch)
Personal Income 3.7 2.4 4.2 1.6 -0.0 -5.3 2.4 3.3 0.9 2.2 3.1
Disposable Income 3.4 1.4 3.6 0.9 1.5 -3.1 2.0 2.7 0.3 1.0 2.9
Components of Personal Income (Bil $)
Personal Income 1312.2 1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1526.5 1587.4 1673.8 1724.1 1794.9 1887.6
Wages & Salaries 706.2 743.5 792.9 837.4 845.4 801.6 818.6 855.5 880.1 914.7 953.9
Other Labor Income 171.7 181.6 183.6 184.6 191.5 189.5 192.0 197.9 206.3 224.4 247.1
Farm 6.8 4.8 4.8 7.5 5.3 6.0 6.4 7.4 8.1 9.4 10.9
Other Income 378.9 407.1 454.1 467.8 484.4 411.9 432.7 460.7 481.7 503.6 535.5
Transfer Payments 160.2 167.9 181.0 191.6 208.9 238.2 260.0 266.4 270.2 279.3 290.5
Social Insurance 111.2 117.1 120.6 122.4 124.6 120.7 122.2 114.0 122.2 136.3 150.0
Taxable Sales
Nominal
Level (Bil $) 499.8 536.3 559.5 561.3 532.3 456.6 477.0 519.4 552.0 571.6 595.4
%Ch 8.7 7.3 4.3 0.3 -5.2 -14.2 4.5 8.9 6.3 3.6 4.2
Real
Level (Bil. 2005$) 515.8 536.0 540.8 526.2 485.2 415.8 427.9 456.3 475.2 483.0 493.1
%Ch 5.9 3.9 0.9 -2.7 -7.8 -14.3 2.9 6.6 4.1 1.6 2.1
New Automobile Sales (Mil Un.)
New Registrations 1.48 1.36 1.22 1.02 0.76 0.51 0.52 0.51 0.61 0.91 1.15
U.S. Sales 16.87 16.95 16.50 16.09 13.19 10.40 11.55 12.73 14.13 14.76 15.55
Construction Activity
Residential Building Permits (Thous.)
Total 207.9 197.3 153.1 106.5 60.9 33.2 43.2 45.0 50.4 68.5 129.3
Single-Family 150.9 146.9 101.7 66.2 31.6 24.0 25.0 22.3 23.5 33.8 60.2
Multi-family 57.1 50.5 51.5 40.3 29.3 9.2 18.1 22.6 26.9 34.7 69.1
Nonresidential Permit Valuation
Nominal (Mil. $) 15651.2 18262.7 21136.7 22620.1 19190.4 10892.6 11168.4 13078.0 14608.0 16270.9 18357.4
%Ch 12.1 16.7 15.7 7.0 -15.2 -43.2 2.5 17.1 11.7 11.4 12.8
Real (Mil. 2005$) 17699.3 18236.1 18725.7 18883.5 15311.3 8886.0 9218.2 10305.0 11104.0 12051.2 13304.5
%Ch 4.2 3.0 2.7 0.8 -18.9 -42.0 3.7 11.8 7.8 8.5 10.4
Population (Thous.)
Net Inmigration 63.0 -83.0 -53.0 -24.0 -25.0 -89.0 -47.0 -22.0 -0.4 17.9 35.4
Net Natural Increase 301.0 316.0 314.0 330.0 329.0 310.0 288.0 283.0 276.0 278.9 288.9
Population 35846.2 36115.4 36363.5 36655.5 36968.2 37212.2 37445.3 37696.8 37969.1 38257.2 38570.0
UCLA Anderson Forecast, [MONTH] [YEAR] California–B.5
