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2012-09-CA Forecast September 2012

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2012-09-CA Forecast September 2012 Powered By Docstoc
					                                                                                          Forecast Tables – Summary


Table 1. Summary of the UCLA Forecast for California
                          2004    2005    2006     2007    2008    2009    2010    2011    2012    2013      2014
                                          Personal Income, Taxable Sales, and Price Inflation (%Change)
Personal Income (Bil.$)   1312.2 1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1526.5 1587.4 1673.8 1724.1 1794.9              1887.6
   Calif. (% Ch)             6.4     5.7      7.8     4.7     2.8    -5.2     4.0      5.4    3.0     4.1       5.2
   U.S.(% Ch)                6.0     5.5      7.5     5.7     4.6    -4.8     3.8      5.1    3.7     4.2       5.0
Pers. Income (Bil. 2005$) 1354.2 1387.0 1445.4 1468.3 1468.1 1390.4 1424.0 1470.7 1484.1 1516.7              1563.5
   Calif. (% Ch)             3.7     2.4      4.2     1.6    -0.0    -5.3     2.4      3.3    0.9     2.2       3.1
   U.S. (% Ch)               3.3     2.5      4.6     2.9     1.3    -4.8     1.9      2.6    1.9     2.7       3.1
Taxable Sales (Bil.$)      499.8   536.3 559.5      561.3   532.3 456.6 477.0        519.4 552.0    571.6     595.4
   (% Ch)                    8.7     7.3      4.3     0.3    -5.2 -14.2       4.5      8.9    6.3     3.6       4.2
   (Bil. 2005$)            515.8   536.0 540.8      526.2   485.2 415.8 427.9        456.3 475.2    483.0     493.1
   (% Ch)                    5.9     3.9      0.9    -2.7    -7.8 -14.3       2.9      6.6    4.1     1.6       2.1
Consumer Prices (% Ch)       2.6     3.6      3.9     3.3     3.4    -0.3     1.3      2.6    2.1     1.8       2.2
                                             Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey, % Change)
Employment                   1.1     1.9      1.4     0.9    -0.5    -4.4    -0.6      1.1    1.8     1.6       2.4
Labor Force                  0.5     1.0      0.8     1.3     1.6     0.1     0.5      0.4    0.6     0.6       0.9
Unemployment Rate (%)        6.2     5.4      4.9     5.3     7.2    11.3    12.3     11.8   10.7     9.8       8.5
   U.S.                      5.5     5.1      4.6     4.6     5.8     9.3     9.6      9.0    8.2     8.0       7.7
 Total Nonfarm                            Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, % Change)
   Calif.                    1.0     1.8      1.8     0.8    -1.3    -6.0    -1.1      0.9    1.7     1.5       2.3
   U.S.                      1.1     1.7      1.8     1.1    -0.6    -4.4    -0.7      1.2    1.4     1.3       1.6
Construction                 6.7     6.4      3.2    -4.4   -11.7 -20.9 -10.3         -1.1    2.0     0.7       1.6
Manufacturing               -1.4    -1.2    -1.0     -1.6    -2.7 -10.0      -3.2      0.4    0.3     1.4       2.2
   Nondurable Goods         -1.5    -2.1    -0.6     -1.1    -2.0    -8.1    -2.5     -0.5    0.6     1.5       1.8
   Durable Goods            -1.3    -0.7    -1.2     -1.8    -3.0 -11.2      -3.6      0.9    0.1     1.3       2.4
Trans. Warehousing & Util    0.4     0.9      1.8     2.3    -0.6    -6.0    -1.7      1.2    1.3     2.3       3.0
Trade                        1.6     2.7      2.0     1.0    -2.5    -7.5    -0.5      1.6    2.0     1.7       1.8
Information                  1.3    -1.8    -1.6      1.0     1.0    -7.4    -2.9      1.1    4.6     3.7       5.2
Financial Activities         1.9     2.8      0.8    -3.4    -6.1    -7.0    -2.9      0.2    1.3     1.5       1.9
Professional Busi. Serv.     0.6     3.0      3.8     1.0    -1.2    -8.0     0.7      2.5    4.5     3.1       4.0
Edu. & Health Serv.          1.5     1.7      1.8     3.5     3.3     1.5     1.6      2.5    2.4     1.5       3.1
Leisure & Hospitality        2.8     2.5      3.0     2.7     0.8    -4.4    -0.1      1.9    2.5     1.7       1.9
Other Services              -0.1     0.3      0.3     1.0    -0.2    -4.9    -0.3      0.4   -0.6     1.2       3.1
Federal Gov't               -1.7    -0.2    -0.7     -0.6     0.5     1.2     6.8     -4.9   -2.9    -1.4      -0.3
State & Local Gov't         -1.1     1.1      1.6     2.0     1.0    -1.9    -2.2     -1.7   -1.2    -0.8       0.1
                                                    Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, Thous.)
Total Nonfarm              14533   14801 15061      15175   14985 14087 13936        14060 14298    14511     14840
Construction                 850     905      934     893     788     624     560      554    565     569       578
Manufacturing               1521    1503    1488     1464    1425    1282    1241     1246   1250    1267      1295
    Nondurable Goods         557     546      543     536     526     483     471      468    471     479       487
    Durable Goods            964     957      945     928     900     799     770      777    778     789       808
Trans. Warehousing & Util    483     487      496     508     505     474     466      472    478     489       504
Trade                       2273    2335    2382     2405    2345    2169    2157     2191   2234    2273      2312
Information                  482     474      466     471     475     440     428      432    452     469       494
Financial Activities         895     920      928     897     842     783     760      761    772     783       798
Professional Busi. Serv.    2098    2160    2242     2265    2239    2059    2074     2126   2221    2291      2383
Edu. & Health Serv.         1567    1593    1621     1678    1733    1760    1788     1834   1878    1907      1966
Leisure & Hospitality       1439    1475    1519     1560    1573    1503    1501     1530   1568    1595      1626
Other Services             503.8   505.4 507.0      512.1   511.3 486.2 485.0        487.0 484.2    490.0     505.3
Federal Gov't              251.0   250.4 248.7      247.1   248.4 251.3 268.3        255.2 247.8    244.3     243.5
State & Local Gov't       2146.7 2169.9 2203.9 2247.9 2271.0 2228.3 2179.9 2143.1 2118.0 2101.6              2104.0
                                                             Population and Migration
Net Inmigration(Thous)        63     -83      -53     -24     -25     -89     -47      -22      -0      18       35
Population (Thous)         35846   36115 36364      36656   36968 37212 37445        37697 37969    38257     38570
   (% Ch)                    1.1     0.8      0.7     0.8     0.9     0.7     0.6      0.7    0.7     0.8       0.8
                                                               Construction Activity
Residential Building
   Permits (Thous. Un.)    207.9   197.3 153.1      106.5    60.9    33.2    43.2     45.0   50.4    68.5     129.3
Nonres.Permits (Mil.'05$) 17699    18236 18726      18883   15311    8886    9218    10305 11104    12051     13305




                                                            UCLA Anderson Forecast, [MONTH] [YEAR] California–B.3
Forecast Tables – Summary


Table 2. Quarterly Summary of the UCLA Forecast for California
                           2012:1 2012:2 2012:3 2012:4 2013:1 2013:2 2013:3 2013:4 2014:1 2014:2              2014:3   2014:4
                                          Personal Income, Taxable Sales, and Price Inflation (%Change)
Personal Income (Bil.$)    1701.5 1713.7 1731.0 1750.1 1767.6 1785.6 1803.5 1822.8 1848.0 1873.7              1900.8   1928.1
   Calif.(% Ch)               3.9     2.9     4.1     4.5      4.1     4.1     4.1     4.3     5.6      5.7      5.9      5.9
   U.S. (% Ch)                6.3     4.3     4.3     3.7      3.9     4.4     4.6     4.4     5.9      4.8      5.1      5.1
Pers. Income (Bil. 2005$) 1473.9 1480.1 1486.2 1496.2 1503.2 1512.6 1520.7 1530.1 1543.6 1556.7               1570.6   1583.2
   Calif.(% Ch)               0.8     1.7     1.7     2.7      1.9     2.5     2.2     2.5     3.6      3.4      3.6      3.3
   U.S. (% Ch)                3.7     3.6     2.4     3.0      2.2     2.9     2.9     2.7     3.8      2.7      3.1      2.7
Taxable Sales (Bil. $)      545.5   549.6   554.1 558.9 563.6        568.8 574.2     579.9   585.9 592.0       598.4    605.1
   (% Ch)                     3.9     3.1     3.3     3.5      3.4     3.8     3.9     4.0     4.3      4.2      4.4      4.5
   (Bil. 2005$)             472.5   474.7   475.7 477.8 479.3        481.9 484.2     486.7   489.4 491.8       494.4    496.8
   (%Ch)                      0.9     1.9     0.9     1.7      1.2     2.2     1.9     2.2     2.2      2.0      2.1      1.9
Consumer Prices (% Ch)        3.0     0.9     2.0     1.5      2.0     1.6     2.1     2.0     2.1      2.3      2.2      2.8
                                             Employment and Labor Force (Household Survey, % Change)
Employment                    2.2     0.9     1.1     1.2      1.6     2.0     2.1     2.3     2.4      2.6      2.7      2.8
Labor Force                   0.4     0.1     0.4     0.5      0.7     0.8     0.8     0.8     0.8      0.9      1.0      1.1
Unemployment Rate (%)        10.9    10.8    10.6    10.5     10.3    10.0     9.7     9.4     9.0      8.6      8.3      7.9
   U.S.                       8.3     8.2     8.3     8.2      8.1     8.1     8.0     8.0     7.9      7.8      7.6      7.5
 Total Nonfarm                                            Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, % Change)
   Calif.                     3.6     1.1     1.0     1.2      1.5     1.8     2.0     2.1     2.3      2.4      2.6      2.7
   U.S.                       2.1     1.0     1.1     1.2      1.4     1.4     1.6     1.6     1.5      1.6      1.9      1.9
Construction                  4.5     3.7    -0.5    -0.3      0.5     1.0     1.5     1.5     1.6      1.9      1.8      1.7
Manufacturing                 2.2    -0.6     0.9     1.3      1.4     1.9     2.0     2.2     2.5      2.1      2.0      2.0
   Nondurable Goods           2.6    -1.0     1.6     1.4      1.8     1.8     1.7     1.7     1.9      1.9      1.4      2.1
   Durable Goods              1.9    -0.4     0.5     1.2      1.2     2.0     2.1     2.5     2.8      2.3      2.3      1.9
Trans. Warehousing & Util.    0.5     2.9     1.7     1.8      2.1     3.2     1.7     2.9     2.9      3.5      3.8      2.4
Trade                         4.9     1.2     0.6     1.5      1.9     2.3     2.2     2.1     1.7      1.4      1.4      1.4
Information                   8.4     4.1     3.8     3.7      3.5     3.1     4.3     5.1     5.8      6.1      5.4      4.7
Financial Activities          1.6     3.0     0.4     0.3      1.5     2.1     2.8     1.9     1.7      1.8      1.6      1.1
Professional Busi. Serv.     10.0     3.6     2.6     2.5      3.0     3.4     3.9     4.0     3.9      4.1      4.3      4.8
Edu. & Health Serv.           4.1     1.3     1.2     1.1      1.5     1.8     1.9     2.6     3.3      3.6      3.9      4.0
Leisure & Hospitality         4.0     3.1     1.8     1.7      1.4     1.6     1.7     1.8     2.0      2.0      2.0      2.1
Other Services               -0.3    -1.1     0.2     0.7      1.2     2.1     2.2     2.4     2.9      4.0      4.3      4.1
Federal Gov't                -6.8    -8.9    -0.6    -0.6     -1.2    -1.0    -0.8    -0.7    -0.1    -0.2       0.0      0.5
State and Local Gov't        -1.5    -2.8    -1.0    -0.7     -0.6    -0.6    -0.4    -0.3    -0.2      0.4      1.0      1.5
                                                   Nonfarm Employment (Payroll Survey, Thous.)
Total Nonfarm               14241   14280   14315 14356 14408        14472 14543     14620   14702 14791       14884    14982
Construction                  562     567     566     566      566     568     570     572     574      577      580      582
Manufacturing                1249    1247    1250    1254     1258    1264    1270    1277    1285    1292      1298     1304
   Nondurable Goods           471     470     472     473      475     477     480     482     484      486      488      490
   Durable Goods              778     777     778     780      783     786     790     795     801      805      810      814
Trans. Warehousing & Util.    474     478     480     482      484     488     490     494     497      502      506      509
Trade                        2225    2232    2235    2243     2254    2267    2279    2291    2301    2309      2316     2324
Information                   446     450     454     459      463     466     471     477     484      491      497      503
Financial Activities          767     773     773     774      777     781     786     790     793      797      800      802
Professional Busi. Serv.     2196    2215    2230    2243     2260    2279    2301    2324    2346    2370      2395     2423
Edu. & Health Serv.        1869.9 1875.9 1881.4 1886.4 1893.2 1901.6 1910.7 1923.2 1938.9 1956.2              1974.8   1994.2
Leisure & Hospitality      1554.1 1565.9 1573.0 1579.8 1585.3 1591.6 1598.5 1605.5 1613.6 1621.7              1629.9   1638.5
Other Services              484.9   483.5   483.8 484.5 486.0        488.5 491.2     494.1   497.7 502.6       507.9    513.0
Federal Gov't                 252     247     246     246      245     245     244     244     243      243      243      244
State and Local Gov't        2133    2118    2113    2109     2105    2102    2100    2099    2098    2100      2105     2113
                                                             Population and Migration
Net Inmigration(Thous)       -5.6    -3.4     1.5     6.0     12.3    15.6    18.8    24.8    22.7    30.2      39.3     49.2
Population (Thous)          37866   37934   38003 38074 38146        38219 38294     38371   38448 38528       38610    38695
   (% Ch)                     0.7     0.7     0.7     0.7      0.8     0.8     0.8     0.8     0.8      0.8      0.9      0.9
                                                               Construction Activity
Residential Building
   Permits (Thous. Units)    46.5    54.2    50.5    50.4     55.2    61.2    71.2    86.3   111.4 121.2       141.6    143.2
Nonres.Permits (Mil. '05$) 11078    11046   11109 11183 11358        11795 12288     12765   12964 13181       13407    13666




California–B.4 UCLA Anderson Forecast, [MONTH] [YEAR]
                                                                                          Forecast Tables – Detailed


Table 3. Personal Income, Taxable Sales, Construction and Population in California
                             2004    2005    2006    2007     2008     2009    2010    2011    2012  2013    2014
                                                                     Aggregates
 (Bil $)
Personal Income            1312.2 1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1526.5 1587.4 1673.8 1724.1 1794.9 1887.6
Disposable Income          1157.6 1211.4 1298.3 1351.0 1409.8 1366.4 1414.5 1482.6 1518.5 1562.0 1639.0
 (Bil 2005$)
Personal Income            1354.2 1387.0 1445.4 1468.3 1468.1 1390.4 1424.0 1470.7 1484.1 1516.7 1563.5
Disposable Income          1194.7 1210.9 1254.7 1266.4 1284.9 1244.6 1268.9 1302.7 1307.1 1319.9 1357.6
                                                      (Nominal %Ch)
Personal Income               6.4      5.7    7.8     4.7      2.8     -5.2     4.0     5.4     3.0   4.1     5.2
Disposable Income             6.1      4.6    7.2     4.1      4.3     -3.1     3.5     4.8     2.4   2.9     4.9
                                                          (Real %Ch)
Personal Income               3.7      2.4    4.2     1.6     -0.0     -5.3     2.4     3.3     0.9   2.2     3.1
Disposable Income             3.4      1.4    3.6     0.9      1.5     -3.1     2.0     2.7     0.3   1.0     2.9
                                                      Components of Personal Income (Bil $)
Personal Income            1312.2 1387.7 1495.5 1566.4 1610.7 1526.5 1587.4 1673.8 1724.1 1794.9 1887.6
  Wages & Salaries          706.2   743.5   792.9 837.4 845.4         801.6 818.6     855.5  880.1 914.7    953.9
  Other Labor Income        171.7   181.6   183.6 184.6 191.5         189.5 192.0     197.9  206.3 224.4    247.1
  Farm                        6.8      4.8    4.8     7.5      5.3      6.0     6.4     7.4     8.1   9.4    10.9
  Other Income              378.9   407.1   454.1 467.8 484.4         411.9 432.7     460.7  481.7 503.6    535.5
  Transfer Payments         160.2   167.9   181.0 191.6 208.9         238.2 260.0     266.4  270.2 279.3    290.5
  Social Insurance          111.2   117.1   120.6 122.4 124.6         120.7 122.2     114.0  122.2 136.3    150.0
                                                                              Taxable Sales
 Nominal
Level (Bil $)               499.8   536.3   559.5 561.3 532.3         456.6 477.0     519.4  552.0 571.6    595.4
    %Ch                       8.7      7.3    4.3     0.3     -5.2    -14.2     4.5     8.9     6.3   3.6     4.2
 Real
Level (Bil. 2005$)          515.8   536.0   540.8 526.2 485.2         415.8 427.9     456.3  475.2 483.0    493.1
    %Ch                       5.9      3.9    0.9    -2.7     -7.8    -14.3     2.9     6.6     4.1   1.6     2.1
                                                                New Automobile Sales (Mil Un.)
New Registrations            1.48    1.36    1.22    1.02     0.76     0.51    0.52    0.51    0.61  0.91    1.15
U.S. Sales                  16.87   16.95   16.50 16.09 13.19         10.40 11.55     12.73  14.13 14.76    15.55
                                                                Construction Activity
 Residential Building Permits (Thous.)
Total                       207.9   197.3   153.1 106.5       60.9     33.2    43.2    45.0    50.4  68.5   129.3
   Single-Family            150.9   146.9   101.7    66.2     31.6     24.0    25.0    22.3    23.5  33.8    60.2
   Multi-family              57.1    50.5    51.5    40.3     29.3      9.2    18.1    22.6    26.9  34.7    69.1
 Nonresidential Permit Valuation
Nominal (Mil. $)          15651.2 18262.7 21136.7 22620.1 19190.4 10892.6 11168.4 13078.0 14608.0 16270.9 18357.4
    %Ch                      12.1    16.7    15.7     7.0 -15.2       -43.2     2.5    17.1    11.7  11.4    12.8
Real (Mil. 2005$)         17699.3 18236.1 18725.7 18883.5 15311.3 8886.0 9218.2 10305.0 11104.0 12051.2 13304.5
    %Ch                       4.2      3.0    2.7     0.8 -18.9       -42.0     3.7    11.8     7.8   8.5    10.4
                                                                Population (Thous.)
Net Inmigration              63.0   -83.0   -53.0 -24.0 -25.0         -89.0 -47.0     -22.0    -0.4  17.9    35.4
Net Natural Increase        301.0   316.0   314.0 330.0 329.0         310.0 288.0     283.0  276.0 278.9    288.9
Population                35846.2 36115.4 36363.5 36655.5 36968.2 37212.2 37445.3 37696.8 37969.1 38257.2 38570.0




                                                           UCLA Anderson Forecast, [MONTH] [YEAR] California–B.5

				
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