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					NAME:                                          TEACHER:                          DATE:

                         McAuley High School

        Level 2 Statistics 2012 Assessment task
                   Achievement Standard 91268 Version 1
         Investigate a situation involving elements of chance using a simulation
                               Credits: Two                 Level: Two

  Achievement Criteria                    For Assessor’s use only

                                                      Achievement                  Achievement
                                                       with Merit                 with Excellence
  Investigate a situation involving          Investigate a situation       Investigate a situation
  elements of chance using a simulation      involving elements of         involving elements of
                                             chance using a simulation,    chance using a simulation,
                                             with justification.           with statistical insight.

                                            Overall Level of Performance

  The task will be done in one one-hour session, under closed-book conditions in the computer
  room, with access to spreadsheets and on-line calculators.

  McAuley High School                                  Page 1                                           AS 91268
                       Achievement Standard 91268
        Investigate a situation involving elements of chance using a simulation

Selena has had her cellphone confiscated by her mean old teacher. Now she is stuck
in Otahuhu with no way of calling her boyfriend in Mangere to come and pick her
up. She could use a payphone, but she knows that at any time 85% of the
payphones in Otahuhu are out of order. She decides to try up to five different
payphones to see if she can find one that is working. If none of them work she will
have to walk to her boyfriend’s house. All because of her mean old teacher.

Design a simulation to find the probability Selena will have to walk to Mangere.

Use the TOOL, TRIAL, RESULTS, CALCULATION method to write up your
simulation, and write your report under these four headings. You must give enough
detail about your method so that another person could repeat the simulation process
by following your method.

Write a paragraph stating your CONCLUSIONS, noting any assumptions you made
in designing this simulation, and commenting on how reliable your estimate is.

Your report should be typed on a Word document,with your name and Teacher’s
initials in the header. Copy and paste your results table from Excel into this Word
document. Print the word document when you have finished, save a copy in your
work area, and Email a copy to your teacher.

McAuley High School                      Page 2                                       AS 91268

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