COPAFSP resentation5a Smith

							Population Considerations for
     the Nuclear Field


        Danny Smith, PhD, PE
      COPAFS Quarterly Meeting
           June 3, 2011
      PREVIEW


       • Basic Nuclear Concepts
       • Shoreham (Wading River, New York)
       • Fukushima Daiichi (Okuma and Futaba)
       • Chernobyl (Pripyat, Ukraine)



June 3, 2011                                    2
   Basic Nuclear Concepts


       Radiation versus Radioactive Material

       Radiation: energy, transience

       Radioactive Material: substance,
       persistence



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   Basic Nuclear Concepts

      Chronic Dose versus Acute Dose

      Chronic: smaller exposures, longer
       exposure periods, genetic damage

      Acute: larger exposures, shorter exposure
       periods, immediate tissue damage


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   Basic Nuclear Concepts

     Time, Distance, Shielding

     Time: minimum exposure duration

     Distance: maximum distance from source

     Shielding: maximum absorber between
       source and receptor

June 3, 2011                                  5
   Basic Nuclear Concepts


      Latent Cancer Goal

      10 -6 probability of fatal cancer for
        members of the public

      Higher probability allowed for nuclear
        workers


June 3, 2011                                   6
   Basic Nuclear Concepts
     Dose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event)
          0.04 NY to LA flight
          0.4 Dose from typical diet
          1     EPA public dose limit
          2     Natural background
         10     average CT scan
        100     Evident lifetime cancer increase
       1000     Temporary radiation sickness
      10000     Fatal dose
     100000     Immediate fatal dose
June 3, 2011                                       7
   Shoreham (Long Island)
      Background
       • On Long Island Sound about 60 miles
         from Manhattan
       • Largely rural in 1960’s
       • Increasing demand for electric power
                 ---------------------
       • LILCO filed NRC application for 540 MW
         nuclear plant in 1968
       • Estimated cost of $70 million

June 3, 2011                                      8
   Shoreham
      Complications
      • Increased designed output to 820 MW
      • Two additional plants proposed by
        LILCO closer to Manhattan
      • Protests by residents killed plans for the
        two additional plants
      • Three Mile Island Accident in 1979
      • Revamped NRC regulations
      • Chernobyl accident in 1986
      • Long Island demographics changed
June 3, 2011                                         9
   Shoreham

      Key Events
      • 1981NRC declared the design safe
      • 1983 Suffolk County declared
        evacuation impossible; Gov. Cuomo
        concurred
      • 1985 NRC approved low-power testing
      • Equivalent to 2 full power days
      • 1989 Gov. Cuomo and LILCO reached
        agreement on shutdown of Shoreham
June 3, 2011                                  10
   Shoreham
       Consequences
       • Shoreham sold to LIPA for $1
       • $6 billion cost of Shoreham to be
         repaid with electricity surcharge
       • $50 million paid to Philadelphia Power
         to take slightly used fuel
       • $186 million cost of decontamination
         and decommissioning
       • NEVER connected to the grid

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  Shoreham Twin at Waterford, CT

          •    50 miles away on Long Island Sound
          •    Operational in 5 years
          •    Cost $100 million
          •    Continued operation until 1998

                  What was the difference?



June 3, 2011                                        12
   Fukushima Daiichi

  Background
  • 6 Boiling Water Reactors: 3 operating, 3
    under maintenance (total 4700 MW)
  • Located in the towns of Okuma and
    Futaba, Fukushima Prefecture
  • Approximately 50,000 households within
    20 km
  • Design basis 19 foot tsunami


June 3, 2011                                   13
   Fukushima Daiichi

   Accident Sequence
   • Tohoku Earthquake: auto shutdown
   • 46 foot tsunami
   • Offsite Power: connection destroyed
   • Diesel Generators: flooded
   • Battery Power: limited life
   • Hydrolysis via hot zirconium cladding
   • Hydrogen conflagration

June 3, 2011                                 14
   Fukushima Daiichi
Reactor Consequences
• Partial core meltdown in Units 1, 2, 3
• Hydrogen explosions in Units 1 and 3; Unit 2?
• Exposed spent fuel in Unit 1, 3, and 4 pools?
• Release of about one tenth of the activity
  released from Chernobyl
• 24 million gallons of contaminated water
• Accident rating of 7 for Units 1, 2, and 3
• Goal: cold shutdown in 6 to 9 months
• Estimated 30 years to clean up site

June 3, 2011                                      15
   Fukushima Daiichi

  Demographic Consequences
  • 20 km exclusion zone6
  • 30 km evacuation zone
  • Extermination of contaminated livestock
  • Destruction of contaminated crops
  • Water contamination scare in Tokyo



June 3, 2011                                  16
   Basic Nuclear Concepts
     Dose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event)
          0.04 NY to LA flight
          0.4 Dose from typical diet
          1    EPA public dose limit
          2    Natural background
         10    average CT scan
        100    Evident lifetime cancer increase
       1000    Temporary radiation sickness
      10000    Fatal dose
     100000    Immediate fatal dose
June 3, 2011                                      16b
   Fukushima Daiichi

 Worker Dose and Implications for Oldsters
 • Normal worker dose Limit: 50 mSv
 • 250 mSv for emergency conditions
 • Dose is based on latent cancer risk
 • Latent cancer incubation period: 20 to 30
   years
 • Older workers asked to volunteer
 • Skilled Veterans Corps


June 3, 2011                                   17
   Fukushima Daiichi

  Skilled Veterans Corps

  “Radiation exposure of the generation that
  will reproduce the next generation should
  be avoided.”

               -- Yasuteru Yamada (age 72)



June 3, 2011                                   18
   Chernobyl

    Consequences
    • Dozens of deaths from acute exposure
    • Thousands of excess cancer deaths
    • 30 km exclusion zone
    • 140 million curies released
    • Damage: $100’s of billions
    • Population displaced: over 100,000


June 3, 2011                                 19
   Basic Nuclear Concepts
     Dose Perspective (in mSv per yr or event)
          0.04 NY to LA flight
          0.4 Dose from typical diet
          1    EPA public dose limit
          2    Natural background
         10    average CT scan
        100    Evident lifetime cancer increase
       1000    Temporary radiation sickness
      10000    Fatal dose
     100000    Immediate fatal dose
June 3, 2011                                      19b
  Chernobyl: Contaminated Areas




June 3, 2011                      20
   Chernobyl

   Interesting USSR Responses
   • Distribution of contaminated foods
     throughout Russian republics
   • By decree, radiation from Chernobyl not
     allowed as cause of death
   • “Washing” of clouds moving toward
     Moscow


June 3, 2011                                   21
   Chernobyl

   Washing of Clouds
   • Seeding to cause rainfall
   • Less populated area selected (Novozibkov)
   • Total population of about 70,000
   • Approximately 10,000 times greater than
     normal radioactive material in soil
   • 95% of dose to downwinders is from food,
     water, and milk intake
   • Coffin supplement

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