LRF_MJJ_2012

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					                   SEASONAL FORECAST FOR ANTIGUA – MAY-JUNE-JULY 2012

                                                 Dale C. S. Destin
                           Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service Climate Section
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                                                    May 1, 2012


                    …Above normal rainfall…near normal temperature and wind…


Based upon model data, observations and subjective input, the following are being forecast for
May to July for Antigua.

Rainfall

Above normal rainfall is most likely with greater than 11.40 inches. Probabilistically, there is a

        45% chance of above normal rainfall (above 11.40 inches);
        35% chance of near normal rainfall (7.40 – 11.40 inches) and
        20% chance of below normal rainfall (below 7.40 inches).

Temperature

Near normal temperature is most likely with 27.5 to 27.9°C. Probabilistically, there is a

        35% chance of above normal temperature (above 27.9°C);
        40% chance of near normal temperature (27.5°C – 27.9°C) and
        25% chance of below normal temperature (below 27.5°C).

Wind

Near normal wind is most likely with 12.2 to 13.4 knots. Probabilistically, there is a

        25% chance of above normal wind (above 13.4 knots);
        40% chance of near normal wind (12.2 – 13.4 knots) and
        35% chance of below normal wind (below 12.2 knots).

This outlook will be updated as needed and the outlook for JJA will be issued by May 28.

Definition

The following definitions are being observed based on the 1981 to 2010 (baseline) dataset:

        Below Normal: Values in the lowest 33.3% of the dataset
        Near Normal: Values in the middle 33.3% of the dataset
        Above Normal: Values in the highest 33.3% of the dataset

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that the Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Service makes no
warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this outlook. The information may
be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as
original material.

				
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