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Document Sample
Lead
Fundamentals
Lead (Metric tonne) 2008 2007 2006 2005
World mine production (Lead content of concentrate)
3,800,000 3,770,000 3,650,000 3,520,000
World refinery production - 8,280,000 7,890,000 7,640,000
Of which:
Primary - 3,870,000 3,740,000 3,550,000
Secondary - 4,190,000 3,950,000 3,880,000
Undifferentiated - 222,000 204,000 211,000
Lead Consumption 8,527,000 8,243,000 8,017,000 7,613,000
India mine production lead concentrate - 77,600 69,200 60,400
India refinery production - 123,800 112,700 91,000
Of which:
Primary - 88,800 77,700 56,000
Secondary - 35,000 35,000 35,000
Imports* - 154290 184024 175416
Exports* - 19806 15538 10008
Inventory levels
LME (tonnes) year end 45150 45475 41125 43625
Average Daily Volatility (India Spot) 3.4% 2.5% 2.2% -
Source: GFMS base metal report, DGCIS; * Data for financial year
2004
3,200,000
7,070,000
3,090,000
3,740,000
237,000
7,261,000
51,300
65,000
40,000
25,000
166416
6678
40700
-
Economic parameters impacting lead prices
Parameters 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Real GDP (% change)
US 1.1 2 2.9 3.1 3.6
Japan -0.3 1.9 2.8 2.4 4
Eurozone 1 2.3 2.6 1.4 2
China 9 11.5 11.1 10.4 10.1
India 7.3 8.9 9.7 9 7.9
OECD 1 2.6 3.2 2.7 3.6
Consumer Price inflation (% change)
US 1 2.5 2.7 3.4 2.7
Japan 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.3 -2.3
Eurozone 1 3 2.2 2.2 2.1
China 3 5.9 2 1.4 3.2
India 5 7 6.7 5.3 4.6
OECD 1 3 2.2 2.1 1.8
Industrial Output (YoY % change )
US -8.9 1.7 1.5 2.9 3.3
Japan -20.7 1.5 5.4 3.4 1.7
Eurozone -12.2 1.4 5.3 2.5 0.8
China 5.7 17.4 14.7 16.5 14.4
India -0.2 8 13.4 5.7 8.9
Interest rates (%)
US ( Fed Funds Target) 0.25 4.25 5.25 4.25 2.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills) 0.249 0.581 0.618 0.066 0.003
Eurozone ( Refinance rates ) 2.5 4 3.5 2.25 2
China ( Lending Rate ) 5.31 7.47 6.12 5.58 5.58
India ( Repo rate ) 6.5 7.75 7.25 6.25 6
Money Supply ( YoY % change)
US 9.6 5.6 5.4 4.1 5.7
Japan 0.7 0.7 -0.6 0.3 1
Eurozone 7.5 11.6 9.9 7.4 6.6
China 17.82 16.72 16.9 17.6 14.63
India 19.6 22.84 19.33 17.79 13.49
Equity Index (points)
US ( DOW JONES) 8,776 13,265 12,463 10,718 10,783
India (SENSEX) 9,647 20,287 13,787 9,398 6,603
OECD Indicators
OECD Total Monetary Aggr. & Comp. Broad Money Index127.3 116.9 107.6 100 93.9
OECD Total Purchasing power Index Manufacturing 113.83 106.9 103.7 100 96.16
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups Total Energy IPB 127.8 113.7 109.3 100 89.4
Source: OECD, IMF, CPM gold yearbook, World Bank
Lead Prices
MCX future prices (Rs/Kg) Spot prices (Rs/Kg) LME 3 month future prices (USD/
Month Open High Low Last Mumbai - Monthly Average Open High
Mar-09 54.05 70.25 53.15 64.8 63.4 1050 1380
Feb-09 55.65 59.3 47.8 52 54.3 1135 1219
Jan-09 49.35 60.3 48.1 56.45 54.8 980 1230
Dec-08 57 57.6 40.5 45.95 46.4 1095 1140
Nov-08 76 76 53.15 53.8 63.8 1525 1557
Oct-08 87.2 88.2 57.75 72.35 70.9 1845 1873
Sep-08 87.2 94.5 79.5 84.55 85.2 1975 2080
Aug-08 94.3 95.45 70.7 85.75 83.0 2215 2222.5
Jul-08 77.2 98.85 66.4 94.7 83.0 1780 2293.75
Jun-08 83.9 88.9 74.45 74.5 79.7 2000 2090
May-08 104.6 107 80.75 82.6 93.8 2700 2730
Apr-08 113.25 120.4 107.4 108.4 113.1 2780 3000
Mar-08 133.85 140.65 107.1 111.55 121.7 3335 3480
Feb-08 109.65 137.7 107.65 135.5 121.8 2810 3420
Jan-08 101.3 109.15 96 108.05 102.4 2555 2831
Dec-07 121.25 121.7 94.35 99.8 103.4 3060 3060
Nov-07 144.95 148.95 110.15 120.95 132.2 3680 3775
Oct-07 136.5 154.35 134.1 145.15 148.0 3380 3890.15
Sep-07 127.8 142.05 117.4 137.15 130.5 3120 3520
Aug-07 127.05 139.25 115.65 134.5 127.7 3110 3355
Jul-07 115.6 142.3 112.6 126.05 124.6 2680 3500
Jun-07 91.15 109.8 91.15 108.1 98.9 2360 2745
May-07 82.1 92.45 82.1 92 85.7 2015 2360
Apr-07 84.55 86.5 80.15 82.75 84.6 1920 2045
Mar-07 84.6 88 84.6 84.85 84.1 1825 1975.15
Feb-07 77 84.65 70.9 83.85 78.5 1680 1955
Jan-07 74.25 77.3 69 77.3 74.1 1685 1725.25
Dec-06 72 80.95 72 78.4 77.0 1660 1785
Nov-06 72.5 75 70 74 72.9 1615 1755
Oct-06 64.85 73.5 64.85 73.5 69.9 1390 1630
Sep-06 57.25 64.75 54.5 64.75 61.9 1220 1410.5
Aug-06 51.35 55 51.35 55 54.7 1095 1250
Jul-06 44 53.45 43 50.5 48.9 1020 1180
Jun-06 54.1 54.1 42.5 43.2 44.3 1065 1080
May-06 56.35 59 51.4 53.35 52.8 1230 1360
Apr-06 54.5 58 51.9 56.35 52.6 1180 1260
Mar-06 52.95 57.3 52.55 54.5 54.2 1185 1255
Feb-06 - - - - - 1325 1435
Jan-06 - - - - - 1053 1420
Dec-05 - - - - - 1036 1125
Nov-05 - - - - - 960 1045.2
Oct-05 - - - - - 940 1018
Sep-05 - - - - - 863 970
Aug-05 - - - - - 855 895
Jul-05 - - - - - 885 888
Jun-05 - - - - - 962 986
May-05 - - - - - 950 983
Apr-05 - - - - - 985 996
Mar-05 - - - - - 950 990
Feb-05 - - - - - 930 991
Jan-05 - - - - - 1002 1002
Dec-04 - - - - - 955 1019
Nov-04 - - - - - 878 996
Oct-04 - - - - - 930 982
Sep-04 - - - - - 860 940
Aug-04 - - - - - 876 912
Jul-04 - - - - - 840 925
Jun-04 - - - - - 831 862
May-04 - - - - - 731 862
Apr-04 - - - - - 835 841
Source: Respective exchanges websites, RBI
month future prices (USD/tonne) Spot prices (Rs/Kg) RBI rate - USDINR
Low Close LME Cash - Monthly Average
1025 1270 1238 51.23
980 1046 1100 49.22
957 1120.5 1145 48.83
851 999 968 48.64
1073 1103 1286 49.00
1145 1508 1494 48.64
1729.75 1830 1872 45.56
1626 1975 1903 42.94
1531 2210 1960 42.84
1745 1790 1861 42.82
1912 1975 2216 42.13
2677 2714 2835 40.02
2655 2790 3013 40.36
2719 3330 3090 39.73
2405 2820 2622 39.37
2371 2550 2616 39.44
2805 3060 3320 39.44
3345 3660 3723 39.51
2845 3380 3228 40.34
2760 3110 3115 40.82
2670 3105 3072 40.42
2231 2660 2437 40.77
1980 2331 2106 40.78
1905 2015 1984 42.15
1771.85 1920 1909 44.03
1525 1820 1775 44.16
1505 1679 1664 44.33
1580 1665 1709 44.63
1440 1663 1626 44.85
1340 1617 1526 45.47
1214 1380 1347 46.12
1082.25 1210 1179 46.54
995 1092 1053 46.46
924.75 1015 964 46.06
1060 1071 1168 45.41
1139.85 1210 1171 44.95
1130 1185 1194 44.48
1124.85 1182 1267 44.33
1049 1322 1258 44.40
1035 1051 1120 45.65
923.85 1043 1018 45.73
937.75 963 999 44.82
841 938 933 43.92
824 863 887 43.63
812 855.5 858 43.54
880 880 983 43.59
915 962 985 43.49
890 950 980 43.74
935 989 1002 43.69
904 954.5 973 43.68
867 935 954 43.76
885 1004 972 43.98
870 952 966 45.13
805 879 933 45.78
831 925 932 46.10
822 858 917 46.34
825 879 931 46.04
750 837 864 45.52
710 833 804 45.26
651 731 747 43.93
Lead Trading Activity
MCX LME
Month Volume Open Interest Volume Open Interest
Mar-09 130344 1380 535331 93619
Feb-09 72614 1550 402582 102852
Jan-09 146851 1354 534515 102959
Dec-08 144343 3235 483905 109344
Nov-08 128765 3994 470743 117209
Oct-08 114594 2276 610973 123930
Sep-08 156400 1765 540511 139610
Aug-08 158614 1301 609001 143131
Jul-08 226034 2740 729273 142077
Jun-08 126749 5245 482949 116295
May-08 139900 3449 483893 113582
Apr-08 78768 1255 423544 105527
Mar-08 110436 866 415194 102617
Feb-08 139959 1817 454711 98288
Jan-08 129851 1980 428100 96419
Dec-07 167541 1933 341485 96146
Nov-07 180997 1898 494098 102672
Oct-07 259390 2829 493731 98587
Sep-07 179574 1557 406280 92649
Aug-07 213613 1652 434971 66274
Jul-07 90279 847 374775 66822
Jun-07 339 19 382190 64802
May-07 4 4 366261 66439
Apr-07 9 5 302402 63116
Mar-07 8 0 323205 63240
Feb-07 8 2 330473 60786
Jan-07 54 0 371393 58260
Dec-06 116 0 320163 57662
Nov-06 552 1 374854 61192
Oct-06 28 0 356364 58032
Sep-06 336 0 396199 56693
Aug-06 46 1 379169 55523
Jul-06 1774 20 318504 57775
Jun-06 430 29 308105 62057
May-06 1691 16 440203 62315
Apr-06 628 8 343260 59505
Mar-06 2940 10 434491 65955
Feb-06 - - 353575 60198
Jan-06 - - 471560 64511
Dec-05 - - - -
Nov-05 - - - -
Oct-05 - - - -
Sep-05 - - - -
Aug-05 - - - -
Jul-05 - - - -
Jun-05 - - - -
May-05 - - - -
Apr-05 - - - -
Mar-05 - - - -
Feb-05 - - - -
Jan-05 - - - -
Dec-04 - - - -
Nov-04 - - - -
Oct-04 - - - -
Sep-04 - - - -
Aug-04 - - - -
Jul-04 - - - -
Jun-04 - - - -
May-04 - - - -
Apr-04 - - - -
Source: Respective exchnages websites
Note: Vol and OI in lots; Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month; Cummulative open interest in all contracts at end
open interest in all contracts at end of the month.
Lead Graphs
Graph-1
Lead Mine Production (2008e)
China
20%
Australia
40%
4% United States
9% Peru
Mexico
12%
15% Others
Source: USGS; e estimates
Graph-2
Lead Consumption (2008e)
China
25%
35%
Europe
USA
18%
22% Others
Source: GFMS Base Metal Report e estimates
Graph-3
Lead Prices, Inventory and Spread Between Cash & Futures
Inventory & Spread Prices
250 4000
200 3500
3000
150 2500
100 2000
50 1500
1000
0 500
Lead Prices, Inventory and Spread Between Cash & Futures
Inventory & Spread Prices
250 4000
200 3500
3000
150 2500
100 2000
50 1500
1000
0 500
-50 0
Nov-95
Nov-00
Nov-05
Jul-97
Jul-02
Jul-07
Jan-00
Jan-05
Sep-96
Mar-99
Sep-01
Mar-04
Mar-09
May-98
May-03
Sep-06
May-08
LME futures (USD/ton) - RHS Lead invetory (000s metric tonne)
Cash-3Mon Spread Source: LME
Futures
Prices
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Futures
Prices
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jul-07
Mar-09
May-08
etric tonne)
