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					Lead

Fundamentals
Lead (Metric tonne)                                2008          2007         2006        2005
World mine production (Lead content of concentrate)
                                                3,800,000     3,770,000    3,650,000   3,520,000

World refinery production                           -         8,280,000    7,890,000   7,640,000
Of which:
Primary                                             -         3,870,000    3,740,000   3,550,000
Secondary                                           -         4,190,000    3,950,000   3,880,000
Undifferentiated                                    -          222,000      204,000     211,000
Lead Consumption                                8,527,000     8,243,000    8,017,000   7,613,000


India mine production lead concentrate              -           77,600      69,200      60,400
India refinery production                           -          123,800     112,700      91,000
Of which:
Primary                                             -          88,800       77,700      56,000
Secondary                                           -          35,000       35,000      35,000

Imports*                                            -          154290       184024      175416
Exports*                                            -           19806        15538       10008

Inventory levels
LME (tonnes) year end                             45150            45475    41125       43625

Average Daily Volatility (India Spot)             3.4%             2.5%      2.2%          -

Source: GFMS base metal report, DGCIS; * Data for financial year
   2004
3,200,000

7,070,000

3,090,000
3,740,000
 237,000
7,261,000


 51,300
 65,000

 40,000
 25,000

 166416
  6678


 40700

    -
Economic parameters impacting lead prices

Parameters                                  2008    2007     2006     2005     2004
Real GDP (% change)
US                                           1.1       2       2.9      3.1      3.6
Japan                                       -0.3      1.9      2.8      2.4       4
Eurozone                                      1       2.3      2.6      1.4       2
China                                         9      11.5     11.1     10.4     10.1
India                                        7.3      8.9      9.7       9       7.9
OECD                                          1       2.6      3.2      2.7      3.6

Consumer Price inflation (% change)
US                                            1      2.5      2.7      3.4       2.7
Japan                                        0.5     1.4      0.3      0.3      -2.3
Eurozone                                      1       3       2.2      2.2       2.1
China                                         3      5.9       2       1.4       3.2
India                                         5       7       6.7      5.3       4.6
OECD                                          1       3       2.2      2.1       1.8

Industrial Output (YoY % change )
US                                           -8.9     1.7      1.5      2.9      3.3
Japan                                       -20.7     1.5      5.4      3.4      1.7
Eurozone                                    -12.2     1.4      5.3      2.5      0.8
China                                         5.7    17.4     14.7     16.5     14.4
India                                        -0.2      8      13.4      5.7      8.9

Interest rates (%)
US ( Fed Funds Target)                       0.25    4.25     5.25     4.25     2.25
Japan (12 month T-Bills)                    0.249   0.581    0.618    0.066    0.003
Eurozone ( Refinance rates )                  2.5     4        3.5     2.25      2
China ( Lending Rate )                       5.31    7.47     6.12     5.58     5.58
India ( Repo rate )                           6.5    7.75     7.25     6.25      6

Money Supply ( YoY % change)
US                                            9.6     5.6      5.4      4.1     5.7
Japan                                         0.7     0.7     -0.6      0.3      1
Eurozone                                      7.5    11.6      9.9      7.4     6.6
China                                       17.82   16.72     16.9     17.6    14.63
India                                        19.6   22.84    19.33    17.79    13.49

Equity Index (points)
US ( DOW JONES)                             8,776   13,265   12,463   10,718   10,783
India (SENSEX)                              9,647   20,287   13,787    9,398    6,603
OECD Indicators
OECD Total Monetary Aggr. & Comp. Broad Money Index127.3   116.9   107.6   100    93.9
OECD Total Purchasing power Index Manufacturing   113.83   106.9   103.7   100   96.16
OECD Total CPI OECD Groups Total Energy IPB        127.8   113.7   109.3   100    89.4

Source: OECD, IMF, CPM gold yearbook, World Bank
Lead Prices

                       MCX future prices (Rs/Kg)            Spot prices (Rs/Kg)    LME 3 month future prices (USD/
Month         Open         High        Low        Last    Mumbai - Monthly Average Open      High
Mar-09         54.05       70.25       53.15       64.8              63.4           1050     1380
Feb-09         55.65        59.3        47.8        52               54.3           1135     1219
Jan-09         49.35        60.3        48.1      56.45              54.8            980     1230
Dec-08           57         57.6        40.5      45.95              46.4           1095     1140
Nov-08           76          76        53.15       53.8              63.8           1525     1557
Oct-08          87.2        88.2       57.75      72.35              70.9           1845     1873
Sep-08          87.2        94.5        79.5      84.55              85.2           1975     2080
Aug-08          94.3       95.45        70.7      85.75              83.0           2215    2222.5
Jul-08          77.2       98.85        66.4       94.7              83.0           1780   2293.75
Jun-08          83.9        88.9       74.45       74.5              79.7           2000     2090
May-08         104.6        107        80.75       82.6              93.8           2700     2730
Apr-08        113.25       120.4       107.4      108.4             113.1           2780     3000
Mar-08        133.85      140.65       107.1     111.55             121.7           3335     3480
Feb-08        109.65       137.7      107.65      135.5             121.8           2810     3420
Jan-08         101.3      109.15         96      108.05             102.4           2555     2831
Dec-07        121.25       121.7       94.35       99.8             103.4           3060     3060
Nov-07        144.95      148.95      110.15     120.95             132.2           3680     3775
Oct-07         136.5      154.35       134.1     145.15             148.0           3380   3890.15
Sep-07         127.8      142.05       117.4     137.15             130.5           3120     3520
Aug-07        127.05      139.25      115.65      134.5             127.7           3110     3355
Jul-07         115.6       142.3       112.6     126.05             124.6           2680     3500
Jun-07         91.15       109.8       91.15      108.1              98.9           2360     2745
May-07          82.1       92.45        82.1        92               85.7           2015     2360
Apr-07         84.55        86.5       80.15      82.75              84.6           1920     2045
Mar-07          84.6         88         84.6      84.85              84.1           1825   1975.15
Feb-07           77        84.65        70.9      83.85              78.5           1680     1955
Jan-07         74.25        77.3         69        77.3              74.1           1685   1725.25
Dec-06           72        80.95         72        78.4              77.0           1660     1785
Nov-06          72.5         75          70         74               72.9           1615     1755
Oct-06         64.85        73.5       64.85       73.5              69.9           1390     1630
Sep-06         57.25       64.75        54.5      64.75              61.9           1220    1410.5
Aug-06         51.35         55        51.35        55               54.7           1095     1250
Jul-06           44        53.45         43        50.5              48.9           1020     1180
Jun-06          54.1        54.1        42.5       43.2              44.3           1065     1080
May-06         56.35         59         51.4      53.35              52.8           1230     1360
Apr-06          54.5         58         51.9      56.35              52.6           1180     1260
Mar-06         52.95        57.3       52.55       54.5              54.2           1185     1255
Feb-06            -           -           -          -                -             1325     1435
Jan-06            -           -           -          -                -             1053     1420
Dec-05            -           -           -          -                -             1036     1125
Nov-05           -         -          -      -   -    960   1045.2
Oct-05           -         -          -      -   -    940    1018
Sep-05           -         -          -      -   -    863     970
Aug-05           -         -          -      -   -    855     895
Jul-05           -         -          -      -   -    885     888
Jun-05           -         -          -      -   -    962     986
May-05           -         -          -      -   -    950     983
Apr-05           -         -          -      -   -    985     996
Mar-05           -         -          -      -   -    950     990
Feb-05           -         -          -      -   -    930     991
Jan-05           -         -          -      -   -   1002    1002
Dec-04           -         -          -      -   -    955    1019
Nov-04           -         -          -      -   -    878     996
Oct-04           -         -          -      -   -    930     982
Sep-04           -         -          -      -   -    860     940
Aug-04           -         -          -      -   -    876     912
Jul-04           -         -          -      -   -    840     925
Jun-04           -         -          -      -   -    831     862
May-04           -         -          -      -   -    731     862
Apr-04           -         -          -      -   -    835     841

Source: Respective exchanges websites, RBI
month future prices (USD/tonne)   Spot prices (Rs/Kg) RBI rate - USDINR
                Low      Close        LME Cash - Monthly Average
                1025      1270           1238               51.23
                 980      1046           1100               49.22
                 957     1120.5          1145               48.83
                 851       999            968               48.64
                1073      1103           1286               49.00
                1145      1508           1494               48.64
              1729.75     1830           1872               45.56
                1626      1975           1903               42.94
                1531      2210           1960               42.84
                1745      1790           1861               42.82
                1912      1975           2216               42.13
                2677      2714           2835               40.02
                2655      2790           3013               40.36
                2719      3330           3090               39.73
                2405      2820           2622               39.37
                2371      2550           2616               39.44
                2805      3060           3320               39.44
                3345      3660           3723               39.51
                2845      3380           3228               40.34
                2760      3110           3115               40.82
                2670      3105           3072               40.42
                2231      2660           2437               40.77
                1980      2331           2106               40.78
                1905      2015           1984               42.15
              1771.85     1920           1909               44.03
                1525      1820           1775               44.16
                1505      1679           1664               44.33
                1580      1665           1709               44.63
                1440      1663           1626               44.85
                1340      1617           1526               45.47
                1214      1380           1347               46.12
              1082.25     1210           1179               46.54
                 995      1092           1053               46.46
               924.75     1015            964               46.06
                1060      1071           1168               45.41
              1139.85     1210           1171               44.95
                1130      1185           1194               44.48
              1124.85     1182           1267               44.33
                1049      1322           1258               44.40
                1035      1051           1120               45.65
923.85   1043    1018   45.73
937.75    963     999   44.82
 841      938     933   43.92
 824      863     887   43.63
 812     855.5    858   43.54
 880      880     983   43.59
 915      962     985   43.49
 890      950     980   43.74
 935      989    1002   43.69
 904     954.5    973   43.68
 867      935     954   43.76
 885     1004     972   43.98
 870      952     966   45.13
 805      879     933   45.78
 831      925     932   46.10
 822      858     917   46.34
 825      879     931   46.04
 750      837     864   45.52
 710      833     804   45.26
 651      731     747   43.93
Lead Trading Activity

                        MCX                       LME
  Month      Volume      Open Interest   Volume    Open Interest
Mar-09       130344         1380         535331        93619
Feb-09        72614         1550         402582       102852
Jan-09       146851         1354         534515       102959
Dec-08       144343         3235         483905       109344
Nov-08       128765         3994         470743       117209
Oct-08       114594         2276         610973       123930
Sep-08       156400         1765         540511       139610
Aug-08       158614         1301         609001       143131
Jul-08       226034         2740         729273       142077
Jun-08       126749         5245         482949       116295
May-08       139900         3449         483893       113582
Apr-08        78768         1255         423544       105527
Mar-08       110436          866         415194       102617
Feb-08       139959         1817         454711        98288
Jan-08       129851         1980         428100        96419
Dec-07       167541         1933         341485        96146
Nov-07       180997         1898         494098       102672
Oct-07       259390         2829         493731        98587
Sep-07       179574         1557         406280        92649
Aug-07       213613         1652         434971        66274
Jul-07        90279          847         374775        66822
Jun-07          339           19         382190        64802
May-07            4            4         366261        66439
Apr-07            9            5         302402        63116
Mar-07            8            0         323205        63240
Feb-07            8            2         330473        60786
Jan-07           54            0         371393        58260
Dec-06          116            0         320163        57662
Nov-06          552            1         374854        61192
Oct-06           28            0         356364        58032
Sep-06          336            0         396199        56693
Aug-06           46            1         379169        55523
Jul-06         1774           20         318504        57775
Jun-06          430           29         308105        62057
May-06         1691           16         440203        62315
Apr-06          628            8         343260        59505
Mar-06         2940           10         434491        65955
Feb-06            -            -         353575        60198
Jan-06            -            -         471560        64511
Dec-05            -            -            -            -
Nov-05            -            -            -            -
Oct-05            -            -            -            -
Sep-05            -            -            -            -
Aug-05            -            -            -            -
Jul-05            -            -            -            -
Jun-05            -            -            -            -
May-05            -            -            -            -
Apr-05            -            -            -            -
Mar-05           -              -             -              -
Feb-05           -              -             -              -
Jan-05           -              -             -              -
Dec-04           -              -             -              -
Nov-04           -              -             -              -
Oct-04           -              -             -              -
Sep-04           -              -             -              -
Aug-04           -              -             -              -
Jul-04           -              -             -              -
Jun-04           -              -             -              -
May-04           -              -             -              -
Apr-04           -              -             -              -

Source: Respective exchnages websites
Note: Vol and OI in lots; Aggregate volume in all contracts during the month; Cummulative open interest in all contracts at end
open interest in all contracts at end of the month.
Lead Graphs
              Graph-1

                                Lead Mine Production (2008e)


                                                                     China
                          20%
                                                                     Australia

                                                  40%
                   4%                                                United States


                   9%                                                Peru

                                                                     Mexico
                         12%
                                     15%                             Others


               Source: USGS; e estimates




              Graph-2

                                 Lead Consumption (2008e)



                                                                         China
                        25%
                                                 35%
                                                                         Europe



                                                                         USA
                    18%


                                       22%                               Others



                        Source: GFMS Base Metal Report e estimates




              Graph-3

                         Lead Prices, Inventory and Spread Between Cash & Futures
              Inventory & Spread                                                     Prices
                  250                                                                 4000
                  200                                                                 3500
                                                                                      3000
                  150                                                                 2500
                  100                                                                 2000
                   50                                                                 1500
                                                                                      1000
                     0                                                                500
          Lead Prices, Inventory and Spread Between Cash & Futures
Inventory & Spread                                                                                                                                             Prices
    250                                                                                                                                                            4000
    200                                                                                                                                                            3500
                                                                                                                                                                   3000
    150                                                                                                                                                            2500
    100                                                                                                                                                            2000
     50                                                                                                                                                            1500
                                                                                                                                                                   1000
      0                                                                                                                                                            500
    -50                                                                                                                                                            0



          Nov-95




                                                                Nov-00




                                                                                                                      Nov-05
                            Jul-97




                                                                                  Jul-02




                                                                                                                                        Jul-07
                                                       Jan-00




                                                                                                             Jan-05
                   Sep-96




                                              Mar-99




                                                                         Sep-01




                                                                                                    Mar-04




                                                                                                                                                          Mar-09
                                     May-98




                                                                                           May-03




                                                                                                                               Sep-06


                                                                                                                                                 May-08
      LME futures (USD/ton) - RHS                                                          Lead invetory (000s metric tonne)
      Cash-3Mon Spread                                                                                         Source: LME
Futures
          Prices
           4000
           3500
           3000
           2500
           2000
           1500
           1000
           500
 Futures
                       Prices
                           4000
                           3500
                           3000
                           2500
                           2000
                           1500
                           1000
                           500
                           0
Jul-07


                  Mar-09
         May-08




  etric tonne)

				
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