"KESSA CASE ENG"
KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 1 of 8 OBSERVATION １.CO2 causes global warming. 茨城県原子力についての HP '03/原子力についての基礎知識/わが町のホームページ/ http://www.pref.ibaraki.jp/bukyoku/seikan/gentai/chisiki/02ima/c.htm Q) The main causality of global warming is increase of CO2 in the air. While CO2 makes sunlight pass to the earth surface, it takes in the heat from the surface and releases that heat to there, so temperature of the earth surface goes up. This is called "greenhouse effect". (UQ ２.Japan has a responsibility to reduce 6% of CO2 till 2012 by Kyoto Protocol. 第２研究部 環境グループ グループマネジャー 工藤拓毅&研 究 員 小川順子 '02/ June 7th/『日本の京都議定書批准と今後の課題』/特別速報レポート/ http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/414.pdf Q) June 4 (in 2002), this [the ratification of the Kyoto protocol] was decided in the cabinet, and was submitted to the United Nations Secretariat. This means, Japan decided to have duty to reduce 6% of the green house gas emissions from 2008 to 2012, compared with 1990. (UQ 1 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 2 of 8 CONTENTION 1 Inherency -Kyoto Protocol- a) １.USQ, Japan doesn't adopt a carbon tax. C/A the next card ２ . Present regulation doesn’t have the incentive, because the company can be economically disadvantageous. Ministry of the Environment’95/環境省 HP/ Last Report of "Research Panel on Economic Instruments such as Taxation and Charges in Environmental Policies"/ http://www.env.go.jp/en/rep/tax/ch2.htmlhttp://www.env.go.jp/en/rep/tax/ch2.html Q) The good environment is advantageous for everyone. However, when somebody pays the cost for it, or does environmental preservation activity, even if the people have the merit to enjoy the good environment for him, the third person who does not pay at all can also gain its profit. In other words, since the third person who does not pay at all can sneak a.”Free ride" on the autonomous activities of others, the incentive to try to pay by them will tend to be lost. The autonomous drives can cause such a problem of "free ride" so that the company, which took countermeasures against global warming, can be economically disadvantageous. (UQ 3. Without a carbon tax, Japan can't reduce enough amount of CO2 for achieving the purpose of Kyoto Protocol. 杉山'02/大志 電力中央研究所 社会経済研究所研究員［(株)エネルギーフォーラム「エネルギーフォーラム」 2002 年 6 月号（ドラフト）より］ http://www.climate-experts.info/Sugiyama_03.html Q) (The second reason is that) except for a carbon tax, any system is unfair, which has effect only on "the companies, which emit large amount of CO2". Direct regulation and emissions trading may actually have effect only on the large dischargers, because the administration cannot check all of the small dischargers. Voluntary activity will also have little effect on the small dischargers, because its payback guarantee is from public pressure. As for pollution problems, it was enough to suppress large companies, but as for global warming, such major companies have to develop technologies more and more. But, if the administration regulates them strictly, there will be the opposite effect that small oil burners and gas boilers will increase drastically. This situation doesn't only go against global warming, but also can aggravates the aerial quality in the city. (UQ 2 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 3 of 8 Therefore, 4.Actually, the amount of CO2 is increasing. 炭素税研究会 '02/ 2002/MARCH/ http://www5b.biglobe.ne.jp/~change-c/pdf/CarbontaxS.pdf Q) In Japan, the amount of emitted CO2 in 2000 was about 10% larger than that of 1990, not decreasing. It is clear that only the present governmental policy is not enough to decrease green house gas. Nevertheless, in the new principle for promoting measures against global warming, which the government determined in March, they try to postpone effective policy. In order to achieve the purpose of the Kyoto Protocol, it is necessary to take effective policy immediately. (UQ ５.Because Japan will not keep Kyoto Protocol, developing countries will not regulate CO2. Prof.石'99/弘光/一橋大学経済学部教授/[環境税とは何か]/p/b 岩波書店/p179 Q) However, developed countries have strong follow-the-leader mentality because a kind of needless fears. For example, as I mentioned, when EU suggested imposing carbon/energy taxes, which lay on 10 dollars for 1 barrel, EU did it on condition that the other developed countries also take the same way. Moreover, developing countries never take the initiative in the commitment on the cut of CO2 emissions without leadership of developed countries. (UQ Therefore, ６.Global warming will proceed all over the world. C/A C-2 a ) 1st card b) Japanese Responsibility 1. Without a carbon tax, Japan can't keep Kyoto Protocol. C/A a) 2nd. Therefore, 2.Japan cannot meet international responsibility. C/A OBS 2nd 3 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 4 of 8 CONTENTION ２ Impact –stop the Global warming!!!- a) Global warming is disastrous. 1.Global warming causes serious sea-level rise all over the world. 石’94/弘光/東京大学非常勤講師（現一橋大学経済学部教授）/[地球環境７つの現場から]/ p/b 朝日選書/p167 Q) Supposed that the increase of green house gas continues as it is, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) predicts that the sea-level will rise by 56 cm to 345cm by the end of the 21st century. (omit) Even this speed of rising sea-level gives a crucial crisis to deep swamps of developing countries and countries which have coral reef. And this influence also affects equally on developed countries. Japan, which is surrounded by the sea, will have serious consequences. (UQ 2.Dicision Rule; Environmental problem should be resolved all over the world in order to save the earth. Prof.石'99/弘光/一橋大学経済学部教授/[環境税とは何か]/p/b 岩波書店/p19 Global warming has no frontier, and this is the global problem. Even if one country decrease carbon dioxide emissions, it is meaningless, as long as the surrounding country doesn't support him. Therefore, it is necessary to embody the common goal to reduce carbon dioxide in cooperation with each country. b) International responsibility Decision Rule; Japan should keep the Kyoto Protocol, because we shouldn’t brake the international promise. 第２研究部 環境グループ グループマネジャー 工藤拓毅&研 究 員 小川順子 ‘02/ June 7th/『日本の京都議定書批准と今後の課題』/特別速報レポート/ http://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/pdf/414.pdf Q) This decision of the ratification of the Kyoto protocol means how keep the international promise and that we must concretely examine the policy. Until now, many things about this were disputed and many policies were done. However now the government is urged to make more effective policies, and the private agency must plan the strategy, considering the introduction of governmental policies in the long run. (UQ 4 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 5 of 8 Plan; the Japanese Government should impose taxes on carbon dioxide emissions. Plank １. Shall impose 3400 yen per 1 ton of carbon. ２. Target of tax shall be all fossil fuels like oil or coal. ３. Tax shall be impose when someone produce goods which includes CO2. ４. Tax revenue devotes development of alternative energy and tax reduction. ５. Necessary adjustment shall be taken. CONTENTION3 Solvency –from Japan to the world- a) Achieve the goal!!! 1.Japan will adopt a carbon tax. C/A plan 2. Theoretically, the adoption of carbon tax has a big effect to have companies get incentive. Prof. Seki '99/ Hiromitsu / Professor of ｅｃｏｎｏｍｉｃｓ at Hitotsubashi Univrsity / 「環 境税とは何か」 / p/b 岩波書店 / p.117-118 Q) As a result of adoption of carbon tax, after energy prices of fossil fuel rise, it has effect on the cut of carbon dioxide emissions by three routes. Firstly, relative price of products produced by using energies, which include much carbon, will rise, and that will inevitably cause the change of industrial structure or the shift of demand of the products. This situation will control the production or demand of energy-incentive products and decrease carbon dioxide emissions. (UQ 3. Japan will achieve the goal of the Kyoto protocol. Kyoto Shimbun 2003.07.17 News/ http://www.kyoto-np.co.jp/news/flash/2003jul/17/CN2003071601000408C3Z10.html Q) On 16th (July, 2003), the test calculation by Ministry of the Environment shows that if we introduce carbon taxes according to carbon content in fossil fuels such as oil, it is necessary to impose at least 3,400 yen per 1 ton of carbon in order to achieve the goal of the Kyoto Protocol for the prevention of global warming. As for gasoline, about 2 yen is imposed per liter.（UQ 5 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 6 of 8 4.A carbon tax reduces the amount of CO2. It's E/P in Sweden. 石’99/弘光/一橋大学経済学部教授/「環境税とは何か」/岩波書店/p.180-181 Q) Sweden introduced a carbon tax in 1991, and the Conservation of Nature Agency, which means the Environment Agency, released the report of the CO2 reduction result in the end of 1995,5 years after the introduction of the carbon tax. (Omit) As the whole effect, the amount of CO2 discharge decreased by 8,000 kilotons in total, from 41,600 to 33,600 kilotons, from 1987 to 1994. That means, about 19.2% CO2 decreased. As a conclusion, about 60 % of this reduction was made by the effect of the carbon tax, and the rest of 40% was brought about by improving energy saving and integration of regional heating. It might be a little an optimistic conclusion, but given it was true, among the 19.2% reduction of CO2, 11.5% was from the effect of tax imposition. (UQ 5.If Japan keeps Kyoto Protocol, developing countries will regulate CO2. Association of International Research Initiatives for Environmental Studies'98/ JAPAN ENVIRONMENT QUARTERLY/1998 March Vol. 3 No.1 /Published by Global Environment Department, Environment Agency Q) As the host country of the Third Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP3) held in Kyoto in December 1997, Japan should take a lead among developed countries in the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. Japan will seek to promote positive national responses for this purpose. It is also important for developed countries to build the trust of developing countries by exhibiting the seriousness in their implementation of the Kyoto Protocol. (UQ 6.The res6n why developing countries follow Japan is that Japan is the NO.4 CO2 emission country. 石’99/弘光/一橋大学経済学部教授/「環境税とは何か」/岩波書店/p.12 In 1995,the whole country emits totally 6.4 billion ton carbon. According to it, America emits 21．9%、 China emits 13．6%、Russia emits 7．7% and Japan emits 4．8% which means Japan occupies 4th rank about huge amount of CO2 emissions. 6 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 7 of 8 7. Following to Japan is E/P in the case of SOx. 杉山’02/大志/電力中央研究所 社会経済研究所研究員［日工フォーラム社 「月刊エネルギー」 2002 年 8 月号（ドラフト）より］http://www.climate-experts.info/Sugiyama_08.html Q) When the measure against SOx was practiced in the developed nations for the first time, the policy authorities and the industrial world threw up their hands. Moreover, the cost became huge and they couldn’t easily decide who will do and what will be done. It was also unknown that whether the measure really gives a big damage to the national economy. But, because developed countries including Japan succeeded in drastic reduction of the discharge of SOx, and in spite of it they maintained high rates of economic growth, developing countries were able to decide to take the environmental measure. (UQ （時間があれば） 8.Preemption. Even without the U.S., developing countries follow Japan. 助教授 明日香’01/ 壽川（じゅせん）/東北大学東北アジア研究センター助教授/AAN 各員研究員 /2001/6/26/ http://www.asahi.com/international/aan/hatsu/hatsu010626.html Q) The argument that developing countries will refuse the CO2 reduction duty without the U.S. is mere assumption, and it is too much simple. Developing countries are not uniform, so whether they accept the reduction duty will depend on the situation of other countries and on the contents of the duty. Moreover, it is developing countries that will suffer or have already suffered the most serious damage from global warming, hence they feel more real necessity for the measures against warming. Furthermore, through the negotiation up to now, it is clear that practicing the Kyoto Protocol is a necessary condition for starting the discussion on the concrete contents of the developing countries' reduction duty. (UQ 9.If developing countries reduce the amount of CO2, global warming will stop. That’s because the main causality of global warming is the increase of CO2. Cross Apply. obs 1st. Therefore plan eliminates the causality. b) Plan eliminate the causality Japan can meet international responsibility because Japan will achieve the goal of the Kyoto protocol. C/A a) 2nd. Thus our plan eliminates causality. 7 KESSA MODEL 2003 Autumn Affirmative Case Page 8 of 8 サポートエビデンス １、規制のインセンティブ効果は不十分 Prof.石'99/弘光/一橋大学経済学部教授/[環境税とは何か]/p/b 岩波書店/p41 規制は汚染者に対して、汚染量を削減させるインセンティブ効果をある程度与える。しかし、そ の削減効果は、税･課徴金ほどではない。規制の場合、汚染者はルールで定められた必要最低限 の見直ししか行わない。 ２、経済問題よりも環境問題を優先しよう。 杉山’02/大志/電力中央研究所 社会経済研究所研究員 ［(株)エネルギーフォーラム「エネルギーフォーラム」 2002 年 6 月号（ドラフト）より］ http://www.climate-experts.info/Sugiyama_100.html Q) However, sooner or later, we should suppress our ignoble desire. To satisfy our desire is not true national interest. We can take a measure of global warming without sacrificing the economy though it sacrifices consumption. It is a fact that Kyoto protocol is unfair. However, to incur costs in achieving the goal is not so enormous burden for Japan. Japan should establish a system that can be a good example and all nations take a burden and flow back. What Japan should do now is that to make a recovery of the present bad moderation. And prevention measure of global warming is a chance for Japan to regain our moderation. (UQ 8