Halpert NIDIS Partners November 2010 by 9oiuwiRH

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									 Overview of CPC and
  The Winter Outlook

  Mike Halpert, Deputy Director
Climate Prediction Center / NCEP

        November, 2010
                    Outline

• Ongoing CPC Activities
• La Niña
• Winter Outlook
                              CPC Mission


   We deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment
products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the
 global community for the protection of life and property and the
                  enhancement of the economy.

                                             Temperature Outlook
•   National temperature and precipitation
    outlooks, but not monthly / seasonal
    rankings
•   Focus: weeks, months, seasons, years
    (i.e. short term climate)
•   Forecasts in collaboration with other
    NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other
    agencies and labs
•   Integral to NWS Seamless Suite of
    Products
            Climate Prediction Products
• Focus on week-2 to
  seasonal-to-interannual
     6-10 Day & 8-14 Day
     Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks
     Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments
     (US, Global Tropics)
     Monthly & Seasonal
     Precipitation & Temperature Outlooks
     Seasonal Drought Outlook
     Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks
     (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific)
     Monthly ENSO Prediction




Tools used to develop prediction products
• Dynamical Models
• Statistical Models                        * Dynamical Models
• Historical Analogs                        • Climate Forecast System
                                            • Global Forecast System
• Historical Composites                     • ECMWF
6-10 Day Outlook                     Seasonal


         Washington
         Below: 32%
         Near: 36%                      Maine
         Above: 32%                     Below: 33%
                                        Near: 33%
                        C. Texas        Above: 33%
                        Below: 17%
   N                    Near: 33%
                        Above: 50%

              N


           S. Nevada
           Below: 7%
           Near: 33%                                 5
           Above: 60%
Drought Outlook




                  6
         Climate Monitoring Products

• Daily and monthly data, time series, and
  maps for various climate parameters and
  compilation of data on historical and
  current atmospheric and oceanic
  conditions
   – Primary modes of climate variability
     (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)
   – Atmospheric Circulation
     (global troposphere and stratosphere)
   – Storm Tracks and Blocking
   – Monsoons
   – Oceanic Conditions (global and coastal)
   – Precipitation and Surface Temperature
     (global and US)
   – Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)
               Niño Region SST Departures (oC)
                      Recent Evolution


The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4          -1.4ºC
Niño 3.4        -1.5ºC
Niño 3          -0.8ºC
Niño 1+2        -1.3ºC
                Drought Monitor

Interagency                                   Outside Experts:
Partners:                                     •USGS
•NWS/CPC                                      •State Climos
•USDA/JAWF                                    •RCCs
•NDMC                                         •NWS Hydros
•NCDC




                  Posted on the Internet
                 every Thursday morning
TV Stations                                    Newspapers
                                     Public                 9
              Government officials
            Climate Assessment Products

• Synthesis of current weather and climate
  information and forecasts; issued on a routine
  basis
   – Climate Diagnostics Bulletin
     (monthly, web)
   – ENSO Diagnostics Discussion
     (monthly, PDF and WORD)
   – Weekly ENSO / MJO / Monsoon / Ocean
     updates (.ppt, PDF, web)
   – Seasonal Climate Summaries (web)
   – Special Climate Assessments (extreme events, web)
   – Annual Climate Assessment
     (multi-agency; published in the AMS Bulletin)
   – Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, & Global Tropics)
     Day 3-14 – WX/CX Connection
     ENSO Diagnostics Discussion
            (State of Tropical Pacific)
• La Niña is expected to last at least
  through the Northern Hemisphere
  winter 2010-11.




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Hazards Assessment
    Selected Other Climate Services at CPC

• Joint Agriculture Weather Facility
   • USDA – DOC partnership
   – Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
   – Briefings & Weather Summaries on global
     weather and crop conditions
• CPC International Desks
                                                    Training Coverage
   • Professional development training to African        in Africa

     Meteorologists
   • WMO partnership for regional and global
     activities
   • Lead Famine Early Warning System
     Hazard/Benefit Assessments: Africa, Central
     America, Afghanistan
   • Indian Ocean tropical cyclone monitoring
   • Contribute to USAID Asian Flood Network
Applied Climate Research
   (Science and Service Integration)




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La Niña and Seasonal Outlook
               Niño Region SST Departures (oC)
                      Recent Evolution


The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4          -1.2ºC
Niño 3.4        -1.3ºC
Niño 3          -1.5ºC
Niño 1+2        -2.0ºC
       Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (oC)
               in the Equatorial Pacific

                         • Since May 2010, negative subsurface
                         temperature anomalies have dominated the
                         central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
                         • The most recent pattern of subsurface
                         temperature anomalies is similar to those
                         observed since mid September 2010.



Time




                             Most recent pentad analysis
         Longitude
         Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook
• Nearly all models indicate that La Niña (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies -0.5°C or less) will
persist at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2011. Just over half of the models
indicate La Niña will strengthen further and peak during the Northern Hemisphere early
Winter 2010-11.




                                                          Figure provided by the
                                                          International Research
                                                          Institute (IRI) for Climate
                                                          and Society (updated 16
                                                          November 2010).
SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast
   Issued 14 November 2010

           The CFS ensemble mean (heavy blue
           line) predicts La Niña conditions into
           Northern Hemisphere summer 2011.
               U. S. Seasonal Outlooks
            December 2010 - February 2011
         Temperature                         Precipitatio
                                                  n




The seasonal outlooks combine the effects of long-term trends, soil
moisture, and, when appropriate, the ENSO cycle.
   U. S. Drought Outlook
valid through February 2011
U.S. Temperature Departures (°C) and Frequency of
   Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.
U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of
    Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Dec.-Feb.
U.S. Precipitation Departures (mm) and Frequency of
    Occurrence (%) for La Niña during Mar. - May
      Temperature and Precipitation
              Distribution
                                                    Extreme Events +




                                           MEAN         Realm of most
                                                        Common events




                                                    Extreme Events -

            many              few


                   # EVENTS

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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php
        December – February Precipitation
          and Temperature Distribution


Southern GA/Northern FL




                                                     Strong tilt toward warm and dry




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                      Box-Whisker Web Page:
                      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php
    January – March Precipitation and
        Temperature Distribution


Southern GA/Northern FL




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                      Box-Whisker Web Page:
                      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php
        March-May Precipitation and
         Temperature Distribution


Southern GA/Northern FL




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                      Box-Whisker Web Page:
                      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/index.php
Typical US Temperature, Precipitation and Jet
   Stream Patterns during La Niña Winters
CPC Consolidation
                 Advancing Climate Prediction:
                    The Climate Test Bed
•       Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office
•       Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research
        communities
    Mission
    • To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the
      climate research community to improved NOAA climate
      forecast products and services

            Research to Operations (R2O)
            Operations to Research (O2R)                                  AO                                        R2O
    •
                                                                          LOI
         Focus Areas                                                   Proposal
                                                                    NCEP Collaborator

          –   CFS Improvements                                                  • Reanalysis /
          –   Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems                       Reforecasts    Research                 Operations
                                                              Research Topics
                                                                                • Earth System
          –   Climate Forecast Products                                           Modeling
                                                                                • Tropical
                                                                                                 Climate Forecast
                                                                                                     Products                Improved
                                                                                                       MME                 products and

    •    Competitive Grants Program                                               oscillations
                                                                                • Model          CFS Improvements
                                                                                                                              services

                                                                                  physics
    •    CTB Seminar Series                                                     • Etc.


    •    CPC/CTB - RISA Program                                                                                     O2R
    •    Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program
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